Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/22/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
642 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Frost and freeze conditions are expected late tonight into Sunday morning. Conditions continue to look favorable for a widespread frost and a freeze. Surface high pressure will settle down the Missouri River Valley with very light from the northeast overnight. Skies will clear and allow for good radiational cooling. Dew points this afternoon are all below 32F across the forecast area and will remain in the mid 20 to around 30F overnight. The coldest lows tonight will be across Sheridan county where some spots could drop as low as 26F. The rest of the area should see lows of 28-31F where the Freeze Warning is in effect, and right around 32 or 33 where the Frost Advisory is in effect. As the center of the surface high shifts east of the area Sunday, southerly winds will develop and no further frost or freeze conditions are expected. The next concern will be strong shortwave energy crossing the Central and Northern Plains Sunday night though Monday. Mid-level WAA/isentropic upglide develops Sunday afternoon with an increase in cloud cover from southwest to northeast across the area. Lift increases further Sunday evening though Monday morning. The top down moistening process begins across western Nebraska Sunday evening and should be fully saturated by midnight when rain should begin. The rain spreads east into central and north central Nebraska during the day Monday. QPF amounts are forecasted to be around 0.50" or so across nearly all of the Sandhills into portions of central and southwest Nebraska. While amounts are not overly heavy, this will be a beneficial slow soaking rainfall which the area needs. Instability continues to look limited or non-existent and will continue to keep thunder out of the forecast. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 A rather complicated upper pattern overall into the middle of the week. Another shortwave moves southeastward through the Rockies and into the Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. This helps to carve out a closed circulation at H7 by Tuesday evening across eastern Nebraska. Most of the rainfall with this second piece of energy is focused across KS, MO, IA and eastern Nebraska. Some light rainfall cannot be ruled out across our area and will maintain some low pops during this period. By the end of the week expect a change. A large ridge of high pressure will build over the Rockies and then shift east toward the Plains during the first half of Memorial Day weekend. Warmer during this time with highs back into the 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 VFR conditions expected through the valid period. Vigorous Cu field with some sprinkles will diminish with loss of diurnal heating this evening, leaving generally SCT clouds over the region through tonight. Clouds will begin to surge back into the area from the southwest Sunday afternoon by any sub-VFR CIGs will hold off until the next TAF period after 00Z Monday. Winds may be a bit gusty for an hour or so early this evening, then become light/variable as good radiational cooling sets in. Heating on Sunday will mix the boundary layer and generate some gusts by late in the day but no significant impact to aircraft operations is expected. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ005-024>028-035>038-057>059. Frost Advisory from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ006>010-029-069>071. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ004-022- 023-056-094. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...MBS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
808 PM PDT Sat May 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS...21/1258 PM. Warmer temperatures and less marine layer are expected through the middle of next week as high pressure develops. Night and morning low clouds are still expected along the coast with some clouds lingering into the afternoon, especially after Monday. A cooling trend is expected to begin Thursday with a deepening marine layer. && .SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...21/808 PM. ***UPDATE*** Overall, a very quiet evening across the forecast district. Latest satellite and surface observations indicate some low clouds/fog across the coastal waters as well as the LAX county coast. Current AMDAR sounding data indicates marine inversion around 4000 feet deep south of Point Conception with the inversion likely much shallower north of Point Conception. As for winds, just the typical onshore winds lingering with gusts 20-35 MPH in the foothills. Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, main issue will be the extent of the marine layer stratus and fog. With inversion in place and onshore gradients overnight, stratus should develop and push well into the coastal valleys south of Point Conception overnight. North of Point Conception, stratus will mainly be confined to the coastal plain, but will sneak into the Santa Ynez Valley. Given the more shallow inversion, there could be some patchy dense fog overnight north of Point Conception. Other than any stratus/fog, skies should remain clear overnight. As for winds, expect the current gusty onshore winds to diminish later this evening. Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. Did make some minor tweaks to the sky cover grids, but no significant updates are anticipated. ***From Previous Discussion*** Deep marine layer still in place south of Pt Conception but skies are slowly clearing. With much weaker onshore flow today and the added sunshine in many areas temps are running warmer by 3-6 degrees on average but as much as 10 degrees in some of the valleys. The eddy has collapsed but low clouds are expected to return to many of the same areas as last night as well as the Central Coast. With a weak upper ridge moving into the state Sunday through Tuesday and slowly increasing north to northwest flow aloft the marine layer should clear earlier with warmer temps, especially inland. Low clouds will become confined to just the coastal zones by Monday or Tuesday as the marine layer depth lowers to under 1500`. Locally breezy north to northwest winds likely in the far western part of Santa Barbara County and the I5 corridor but likely below advisory levels. Then some breezy northeast winds by Tuesday, mainly in the LA mountains. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...21/106 PM. The warming trend is expected to peak Wednesday, though there remains some differences in the models on how strong the upper ridge will get. Most of the ensembles seem to support the warmer EC solution but even that solution is fairly moderate in terms of heat with highs in the mid to high 90s in the Antelope Valley and near 90 in the coastal valleys, basically about 10 degrees above normal. Troughing will develop along the west coast Thu/Fri for a cooling trend with a deepening marine layer and increasing southerly flow. The GFS continues to advertise an 8-9mb gradient to BFL late in the week which if true would likely keep low clouds pretty well socked in along the coast through the afternoon, especially from Malibu north. && .AVIATION...22/0012Z. At 2310Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 6300 feet with a temperature of 13 deg C. Good confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF. Although there is a 10 percent chance of IFR cigs/vsbys at KPRB between 09-15Z. Above normal confidence in return to MVFR or lower cigs to coast/valley TAFs, but below normal confidence in timing (could be off by 3 hours) and flight category. Near normal confidence in return to VFR Sunday with return to VFR expected to be within 2 hours of forecast for most terminals. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00z TAF. There is a 30 percent chance of ceilings returning plus or minus three hours from the forecasted time. Any east wind component should remain well below 8 kts. KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00z TAF. There is a 30 percent chance of ceilings returning plus or minus two hours from the forecasted time. && .MARINE...21/807 PM. The Marine Weather Statement (MWS) for patchy dense fog across the Outer Waters and Inner Waters north of Point Sal looks good to continue through tonight. Marginal Small Craft Advisory (SCA) was allowed to continue for the Outer Waters north of Point Sal. North to northwest winds are still expected to increase through Monday. There is a 50 percent chance of Gales developing across the Outer Waters, especially north of Point Conception as early as Sunday night and again Monday. The GALE WATCH remains in place and may be upgraded to WARNING overnight tonight if model trends continue to support GALE force wind gusts. SCA conditions are likely (50-70 percent chance) for the Inner Waters north of Point Sal and western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel Sunday and Monday evenings/nights. There is a 20-30 percent chance of at least brief Gales developing during this time frame. The strong northerly winds will likely spin up an eddy by Monday morning, strongest late night to morning with south to southeast winds possibly peaking between 15 to 20 kts for portions of the southern Inner Waters, mainly south of Point Mugu. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Munroe MARINE...Munroe/Sweet SYNOPSIS...MW Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: