Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/15/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1138 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Surface analysis late this evening shows a weak trough of low pressure tretching from NE OH across Indiana to a weak area of low pressure in place ovet he soutern plains. This trough was poorly organized. GOES16 shows convective debris clouds lingering across Indiana...with radar showsing the remnant convection diving south into southern Indiana. Aloft a stream of Pacific mositure and dynamcis was pushing across the western plains to the Ohio valley...with weak wave of forcing embedded within the flow. Earlier convection has resulted in surfac temps in the 60s amd cold pools from earlier convection are predominate. Overnight alack of forcing remains in pace and convective debris clouds are expected to continue to dissipate. Forecast soundings remain dry as do the time heights. Thus with no forcing...partly cloudy skies will be expecte along with lows in the upper 50s. Given current dew point depressions...some fog potential will be in place espcially with the rain that occured today. && .Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Flow is weak across the area today, between a dying upper low in the Southeast and a poleward lifting midlevel low north of the Dakotas. Latest ACARS sounding has 20-25 knot max flow in the troposphere. Surface winds are light and non-uniform, with a few corridors of convergence inferred. The most pronounced is now in western Indiana with the dying and very weakly baroclinic front tied to aforementioned lifting wave. This is where convection should become most concentrated later this afternoon. Weak shear should result in short-lived single- and multi-cells with the main hazard being brief strong to potentially damaging wind gusts. Hail is possible, but storm mode and relatively weak midlevel lapse rates should preclude a more substantial hail concern. Convection should tend to propagate southeastward given modest southerly mean flow convergent on the south side of cold pools. Storms should propagate southeast of the area and diminish later this evening. Please refer to mesoscale updates for more details on convective evolution through the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, upstream Pacific jet will migrate eastward carving out a more pronounced shortwave trough at the base of the aforementioned Canadian low. This will offer stronger winds aloft, more shear, and forcing for ascent for our region tomorrow, leading to another round of convection. The thermodynamic/kinematic environment will be supportive of severe storms with damaging winds being the primary threat. There is still considerable uncertainty on upstream convective development Sunday afternoon, and MCS potential with a more organized wind threat into the area by evening. Low-level jet orientation may support more of a southeastward propagation, that would result in a path just southwest of the area. Even then, at least scattered development would be possible further north into our area, especially along the advancing front. Details on convective evolution and threats will become more clear tonight and tomorrow. && .Long Term...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Post-frontal continental air mass will be drier and temperatures will fall to near climo for mid-May early next week. This will continue within mean northwesterly flow pattern until mid-week when deamplfying ridging nudges in. Even then, one or more perturbations in the flow will offer increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and beyond. At least initially, we`ll be in a warm moist advection pattern with deeper moisture and anomalous precipitable water values moving into the area and lingering through the end of the week. Shear and especially instability looks sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm potential, but this will depend on convective evolution. Multiple rounds of convection are possible during this period. This may lead to some concern for flooding. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1138 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 IMPACTS: * Mainly VFR Conditions will be expected this TAF period. * Possible brief MVFR Fog overnight DISCUSSION: Outflow boundary cold pools were predominate across Central Indiana late this evening. Dew point depressions near 5F along with dissipating cloud cover...light winds and recent rain may lead to diurnal fog development overnight as RHs approach 90%+. With little to no forcing overnight expect skies to continue to gradually clear. Have included a tempo group near max rh hours to account for possible fog. Forecast soundings on Sunday again suggest attainable convective temps and HRRR shows an area of TSRA pushing across the forecast sites during the afternoon. Confidence remains low for specific timing on any storms. Thus have used a window of VCTS during the peak heating hours in the afternoon to account for this until confidence grows. Furthermore a strong wave aloft is hinted at arriving on Sunday evening. Forecast soundings here trend toward deep saturation during the late evening hours. Thus have again included a continued window of VCSH to account for possible showers. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...Puma Short Term...BRB Long Term...BRB Aviation...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
442 PM MST Sat May 14 2022 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation section. && .SYNOPSIS...High pressure overhead will result in well-above normal high temperatures through the rest of the weekend, with the lower deserts reaching the middle 100s. High temperatures will remain around 100 through the middle of next week. The afternoon temperatures will result in a moderate heat risk for the heat sensitive group and the necessary precautions should be taken. Seasonably dry conditions will persist through the period with mostly clear skies. && .DISCUSSION... Latest objective analysis depicts a ridge of high pressure situated overhead. Latest PHX ACARS sounding shows an additional 2-5C of warming compared to 24 hours ago. As a result, temperatures across the lower deserts this afternoon should be significantly warmer compared to the highs from yesterday, topping out in the 102-105 degree range across most of the lower deserts. High temperatures on Sunday are still projected to be slightly warmer as the ensembles show the low-levels warming another degree Celsius and thus readings are likely to top out in the 103-107 range. The NBM probability of tying/breaking daily record highs on Sunday, is still low (<30%), although higher than the past couple of days. By late in the day on Sunday through Monday, a weak shortwave trough currently located more than 300 miles off the southern California Coast will approach the region. This will bring in an increase in breeziness as well as scattered to broken high-level clouds. Across portions of SE California, especially across Imperial County, downsloping westerly flow will likely result in wind gusts in excess of 20-25 mph, especially after sundown on Sunday. The aforementioned shortwave trough will result in a slight cooldown in temperatures for Monday, with highs mostly in the lower 100s. Temperatures through the middle of the week will remain mostly steady, with highs hovering or slightly surpassing 100 degrees across the lower deserts as a zonal flow pattern establishes itself over the area. Therefore, given that temperatures are likely to be in the triple digits through the middle of next week, a moderate heat risk will be in place across most of the lower deserts, including the population centers, and thus the proper heat precautions need to be taken. It is still looking likely as we head towards the end of next week that high temperatures will fall back below 100 degrees as a deeper trough digs across the western CONUS. There is still significant variance amongst the ensembles in terms of the degree of amplification and positioning of the trough, however, there is enough confidence of a cooldown in addition to bringing an increase in winds. Just the magnitude of the cooling and the winds still remains to be seen. Seasonably dry conditions will continue through the forecast period with no precipitation in sight unfortunately. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2341Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: A ridge of high pressure centered near the southern tip of Baja Mexico will keep dry and stable conditions in place through Sunday. Light winds are in place through much of the troposphere. A weak upper trough centered west-southwest of KSAN will move inland during the day Sunday. It will have little impact on the sensible weather with just some minor cirrus. But, winds above the surface will slowly strengthen overnight and during the day Sunday. At the surface, familiar warm season diurnal patterns will prevail. The most noticeable difference from today will be minor southerly breeziness at KBLH in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure over the area will result in well-above normal temperatures through the rest of the weekend with very dry air prevailing. Temperatures through most of the forecast will be 5-10 degrees above normal, surpassing 100 degrees most days at the lower elevations. Min afternoon RHs values will be less than 5% through Sunday, and only improving to 10-15% during the middle of next week. Overnight RH recovery will be poor through the rest of the weekend, only topping out in the 15-25% range. There will be a slight improvement in Max RHs next week with overnight shallow moisture fluxes from the Gulf of California. Areas near the Lower CO River Valley will see the greatest Max RH improvement, to around 40-50% by midweek, with elsewhere only to 20-30%. A slight increase in wind is expected late Sunday, when gusts could occasionally exceed 20-25 mph, mainly across SE California as a weak weather disturbance moves across the region. Otherwise, seasonal winds will prevail, with afternoon gusts commonly between 15-20 mph. Another wind increase, and potentially more significant, is expected near the end of next week as a stronger disturbance moves into the western states, which could elevate the fire danger potential. && .CLIMATE... Record highs later this week: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- 5/14 107 in 1927 113 in 1927 110 in 1927 5/15 107 in 1937 109 in 1937 107 in 1934 5/16 106 in 1997 109 in 1956 108 in 2014 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, Twitter, and at DISCUSSION...Lojero/Benedict AVIATION...AJ FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/Benedict CLIMATE...18