Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/14/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
759 PM PDT Wed Apr 13 2022 .SYNOPSIS...13/158 PM. Breezy northwest winds will continue through this evening in the mountains and in the Santa Ynez Range. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal through Friday. Some light rain is possible north of Pt Conception Saturday, otherwise just a deep marine layer and cooler temperatures. A warming trend is expected Sunday through mid week, especially inland areas. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...13/758 PM. ***UPDATE*** Overall, a quiet evening across the forecast district. Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies for all areas. Quick look at some AMDAR soundings indicate a shallow inversion is developing around 400 feet deep. As for winds, some northwesterly winds, gusting 35-45 MPH, are occurring across southern Santa Barbara county. Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, main issue will be the winds. At this time, the northwesterly winds are localized enough that do not see the need for any advisories at this time. These northwesterly winds will gradually diminish overnight. Otherwise, clear skies are anticipated overnight. However with the shallow inversion developing, there is about a 20-30% chance of some stratus/fog across the immediate coast of LA county late tonight. Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. So, no significant updates are anticipated. ***From Previous Discussion*** Fairly benign weather pattern next couple days and really the next several. There`s still enough northerly flow across the western part of the forecast area to generate some gusty Sundowner winds through the Santa Ynez Range though it`s a marginal advisory event and will pass that torch onto the next shift. Otherwise, onshore flow to the east has already started increasing and that trend will continue through Saturday morning as a weak front approaches from the north. There`s a small chance of some marine layer clouds returning to some of the coast Thursday but a much better chance Friday and especially Saturday just ahead of the cold front. In fact Saturday we should be looking at a marine layer depth of at least 3000` with low clouds well into the valleys and even up some of the lower coastal slopes. Model ensemble solutions definitely favoring some light precip across SLO County Saturday as the front moves through, and possibly as far south as Pt Conception but little if anything to the south other than the deeper marine layer and maybe some morning drizzle. Rain amounts up north expected to a quarter inch or less. Temperatures will hover near today`s levels through Friday, mostly at or a couple degrees below normal. Then turning a little cooler Saturday as the front rolls through. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...13/154 PM. A very modest warming trend will begin Sunday as weak high pressure aloft builds in from the west. A light northerly gradient will likely set up across the western part of the area generating some breezy northerly winds through at least early next week. However, models maintain at least a moderate onshore flow to the east through mid week and heights don`t really rise too much so not surprising to see forecast highs starting to drop back from earlier solutions. May have to eventually beef up the marine layer coverage for the coastal areas as even the northerly gradient has weakened so the absence of low clouds in some coastal areas may be a bit optimistic. && .AVIATION...13/2358Z. At 2253Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion. Overall high confidence in the 00Z TAFs through the period, with VFR conditions expected. The exception is for KSMX and the LA Coastal sites where there is a 20 percent chance of low clouds, mainly between 06Z-09Z for KSMX and from 09Z-15Z at KLAX and KLGB. Gusty northerly winds will continue to affect western Santa Barbara County and the LA and Ventura Mountains through the period. Lgt- mdt LLWS and turbc possible over and near the higher terrain thru 00Z Friday. KLAX...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with CAVU conds expected through the period. There is a 20 percent chance of low clouds between 09Z-15Z, mostly likely in the LIFR-IFR category. KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with CAVU conds expected through the period. && .MARINE...13/737 PM. Moderate to strong northwest to north winds will continue across the Outer Waters, pushing into the Inner Waters at times (mainly W Santa Barbara Channel and North of Point Sal), through at least this weekend. A dwindling NW swell will allow large and dangerous seas around 10 feet for these areas to subside well below 10 feet for most areas tonight. SCA have been issued for all waters except the Inner Waters south of Point Mugu. A marginal Gale Warning is in effect with gusts to 35 knots through late tonight for the Outer Waters south of Point Sal. NW winds will diminish some during the morning hours, but are expected to increase again Thursday afternoon and night with Gale Force gusts again likely over the outer waters south of Point Sal. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Thursday for zones 645-650-670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Smith MARINE...Smith SYNOPSIS...MW Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
514 PM MST Wed Apr 13 2022 .UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build into the region this week resulting in widespread dry weather and gradually warming temperatures. Readings will increase quickly through the rest of the week with afternoon highs eventually reaching around 10 degrees above normal early next week. This equates to temperatures rebounding into the mid and upper 90s for lower elevation population centers. && .DISCUSSION... Pronounced negative PV anomalies and deep troughing have shifted into the central Conus this afternoon with strong NW flow in its wake covering the Southwest. Through the remainder of the week, negative height anomalies will migrate into the northern tier of the United States while broad, low amplitude ridging and fast quasi- zonal flow envelops the southern states. Low amplitude, progressive flow will the predominant regime through at least the middle of next week with periodic shortwaves in the northern stream temporarily dampening the magnitude of the ridge. Morning ACARS soundings sampled an atmospheric profile not terribly dissimilar to Tuesday though recent objective analysis suggests some moderation in the sfc-H7 layer. Steady warming of the entire atmospheric profile will occur through the remainder of the week as H5 height progressively increase from near 570dm to 578dm. Ensemble temperature guidance spread is quite minimal yielding excellent forecast confidence of afternoon readings reaching 4F-8F above normal by the weekend. The only feature of note during this time will be a modest shortwave rapidly propagating through the Great Basin helping tighten the pressure gradient and briefly enhance afternoon breeziness. Upper level heights should increase further early next week marking the warmest segment of this forecast period. While ensemble spread remains small, GEFS membership continues to trend more dampened with H5 heights while EPS tendencies suggest a somewhat more amplified solution. Regardless, H5 heights above 580dm appear a near certainty resulting in temperatures ~10F above normal. NBM probabilities of reaching 100F across lower elevation communities continue to generally hover in a 20-30% range. Somewhat larger pattern amplification could begin to develop across the east Pacific towards the middle of next week with moderate confidence of at least minor height falls pulling temperatures closer to normal into the latte half of the week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0013Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: West to southwest breezes subside this evening and typical diurnal trends will prevail through the TAF period. Easterly wind shift is anticipated before midnight and the the west to southwest shift Thursday is expected by 22-23Z with a period of southerly winds and variability during the transition. Speeds in the afternoon up to 7-10 kts, with gusts into the mid teens, are likely. Otherwise, winds will be light. FEW to SCT high clouds will be seen at times through the period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Light winds will generally favor typical diurnal patterns at both terminals, with extended periods of variability. FEW to SCT high clouds are expected Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday through Wednesday: Under strengthening high pressure, dry conditions will persist while temperatures warm to around 10F above average by early next week. Wind speeds will be typical for mid April with the usual afternoon upslope gustiness around 15-25 mph. Minimum afternoon humidity levels should easily fall into the single digits following poor to fair overnight recovery of only 15-35%. These weather conditions will provide an excellent opportunity for any prescribed burning during this time frame. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, Twitter, and at DISCUSSION...18 AVIATION...Benedict FIRE WEATHER...18