Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/31/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
815 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy southerly winds and warm temps tonight. A cold front will cross the area on Thursday with showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. Mainly dry weather is expected behind the front on Friday with near to slightly above normal temperatures expected through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Warm front has pushed north of the FA. Breezy south winds continue. Lake Wind Advisory in effect. South winds overnight plus some cloud cover to provide above normal temps tonight. Squall line well to our west expected to weaken some late tonight as it approaches our FA. Latest high res models keep that activity just west of our FA at daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Summary: There is a low chance of severe weather on Thursday. Damaging winds from thunderstorms will be the primary threat. The area of greatest concern is in the southern CSRA (south of Augusta, GA) eastward to the I-95 corridor. Showers and thunderstorms will move from west to east pushing through the central Midlands during the late morning and east of the FA by late afternoon. Thursday morning: A large upper level trough will be over much of the central US on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will be pushing across the Deep South during the pre-dawn hours. Ongoing convection ahead of the front will likely move into the western FA around or shortly after sunrise along with a 50 to 60 kt 850 mb jet. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect due to the strong gradient winds expected. The strength of the convection during the morning hours is uncertain due to poor lapse rates. With little surface based instability expected, widespread severe weather is unlikely. Although we can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm which produces damaging winds from mixing down the stronger winds aloft. The tornado threat is low during the morning mainly because of the lack of instability and shallow inflow layer. Thunderstorms should mainly be confined to the southern half of the FA. Thursday afternoon: Some destabilization may occur across the eastern FA during the afternoon. Warm, moist advection ahead of the front will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 70s by early afternoon. Weak sbCAPE values should promote scattered thunderstorms in the southern and eastern Midlands as the previously mentioned line of convection continues eastward. CAMs generally show the line into the eastern FA by the early afternoon as east of the FA entirely by mid or late afternoon. The NAM stands out as an outlier, much slower than other model guidance. Despite the slightly higher sbCAPE values the threat of severe weather remains low in the afternoon because the deeper shear and 850 mb jet will have moved north of the FA. Weaker shear and lower SRH values suggest that convection may be disorganized. Some model guidance indicates better lapse rates later in the afternoon, but this should be after drier air has begun pushing in from the west which will inhibit additional development. The threat of flash flooding is low due to dry antecedent conditions and quick storm motion. SPC SREF members indicate storm total precip amounts are likely to range from half an inch to 1 inch. Overnight, dry air will continue pushing into the region preventing additional rainfall. Winds will stay up overnight keeping temperatures in the 50s or upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure builds into the region on Friday bringing drier weather. Expect mainly fair weather across the forecast area during the weekend with partly to mostly sunny skies. The combination of a passing mid-level shortwave and modest PWATs could produce a few showers late Saturday into Saturday night but models suggest that amounts would be light. Measurable rainfall over the weekend is unlikely. Monday will be dry with the next chance of rain arriving on Tuesday or Wednesday. Daytime temperatures in the extended will be near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR expected this evening and early overnight. A strong cold front with associated showers and thunderstorms will push through Thursday morning from west to east. MVFR (possibly IFR) expected as this line moves through. The pressure gradient over the area continues to tighten as the front nears the area. Winds have consistently gusted out of the south over 20 knots this afternoon and will generally remain up overnight, only weakening slightly. Current ACARs soundings are showing 30+ knots at 2k feet and this will continue to increase overnight. LLWS is included for all sites starting at 0400 UTC, with 2k foot expected to reach 50 knots and surface will generally remain below 20 knots. LLWS will likely continue through late morning as the low level jet passes through the region. Showers and, possible thunderstorms, are expected to begin around 1300 UTC at CAE, CUB, AGS, and DNL, an hour later at OGB. Gusty winds and some embedded thunderstorms will be possible as this line moves through. Will include a tempo for IFR vis, stronger winds, and heavy showers in the next update, starting at 1400 UTC. Confidence is somewhat low in the probability of thunder at any terminal, so planning on holding off on including TS for now but it is certaintly possible it will added later. Regardless, gusty winds over 20 knots will continue during and after the line, turning from the south to southwest by later in the afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected after the frontal passage Thursday through the weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ040-063>065- 077. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ016-018- 020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...