Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/19/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
505 PM MST Fri Mar 18 2022
High pressure aloft will result in above normal temperatures and dry
conditions through Saturday. A weather disturbance will move into
the region Sunday and Monday bringing cooler temperatures, breezy to
windy conditions, and a slight chance of precipitation. A gradual
warming trend is expected, especially by the middle and latter half
of next week. Forecast highs of 90 degrees enter the forecast for
many areas by next Friday.
Objective analysis this afternoon showed an upper level ridge
pushing into the western U.S. with heights rising across our area.
Dry, subsident northwesterly flow aloft over the Southwest is in
place, allowing clear skies and abundant sunshine to reign over the
region. ACARS soundings showed dry conditions being observed through
the entire column with stations across the CWA observing dewpoints
in the teens. Temperatures today will be several degrees warmer
compared to yesterday as highs across the lower deserts top out in
the low to mid 80s across the lower deserts and mid to upper 80s
across Yuma and the Imperial Valley. We`ll see the warming trend
continue into Saturday as the ridge axis passes through the region
tomorrow. Chances for hitting 90 degrees tomorrow afternoon looks to
remain pretty low with the best chances residing across the Imperial
Valley (~40%) and Yuma area (~50%). Increasing cloud cover tomorrow
ahead of our next weather system will aid in mitigating temperatures
from achieving the 90 degree mark tomorrow.
Winds will begin to increase tomorrow afternoon as gradients tighten
in response to the approaching trough that will bring us several
days of gusty winds and cooler temperatures along with chances for
light rain on Sunday. Ensemble guidance depict this trough
progressing toward the southeast from the eastern Pacific over the
next several days before the trough axis passes through the Desert
Southwest Sunday. The main impact with this system will be the winds
with the ECMWF EFI highlighting the potential for anomalously strong
winds, particularly across southeast California and areas near and
along the Lower Colorado River Valley. We`ll continue to monitor
trends and issue any wind products as needed. Strong winds will also
promote the potential for areas of blowing dust, especially areas
that are more susceptible to being dust prone. Blowing dust can
result in dangerous travel conditions, so anyone with travel plans
this weekend should keep this in mind. On top of the potential for
blowing dust, strong winds combined with dry conditions in place
will promote an elevated fire danger.
Rain chances with this system will remain low with NBM PoPs
generally under 20% on Sunday across the Valley with higher chances
north and east of the Phoenix area over the higher locales. The
majority of the ensemble members show little if any rainfall
accumulation with this system. Most areas will stay dry.
Confidence for cooler temperatures Sunday remains high with high
temperatures expected to be 8 to 15 degrees cooler compared to
Saturday. That might be enough for any early heat acclimatizers to
feel a bit chilled. Strong ridging will allow temperatures to
recover quickly and with a return of the upper 80s expected no later
than Thursday. Chances for widespread readings in the low 90s are
70% or greater for most areas between Phoenix and the Salton Sea
.AVIATION...Updated at 0005Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
As high cirrus increases over the region Saturday, unusual wind
tendencies in the late afternoon and evening will be the primary
weather issue. Confidence is good that west winds with occasional
gusts ~15kt will become the traditional easterly by late evening.
However, east winds will likely prevail much later into the
afternoon Saturday, then obtain a southerly cross runway component
around 10kt late in the afternoon. Unusual S/SE winds may prevail
into the evening before a front switches direction to SW with
stronger gusts late evening and overnight.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Strengthening and gusty S/SW winds late Saturday afternoon will be
the main weather issue with just occasional passing high cirrus.
Through Saturday morning, light winds with the typical directions
will prevail though directions will quickly become S to SW early in
the afternoon. By later afternoon and evening, gusts 25-30kt should
be common at KBLH while mountain waves may propagate into KIPL with
gusts 30-35 kt common.
Sunday through Thursday:
Temps cool closer to seasonal normals Sunday and Monday but will
warm quickly thereafter. The upper 80s and low 90s are likely by
the end of the week. A weather system will bring strong breezes to
many areas Sunday and possibly through Monday. Wind gusts of 15-25
mph will be common and areas with even stronger gusts possible.
Lingering breeziness through the week cannot be ruled out either.
A few showers are possible Sunday and early Monday, more so for
the higher terrain of Gila County, but totals above 0.10" will be
few and far between. RH mins will return to the single digits
early in the week and overnight recoveries will struggle to exceed
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