Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/19/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
505 PM MST Fri Mar 18 2022 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft will result in above normal temperatures and dry conditions through Saturday. A weather disturbance will move into the region Sunday and Monday bringing cooler temperatures, breezy to windy conditions, and a slight chance of precipitation. A gradual warming trend is expected, especially by the middle and latter half of next week. Forecast highs of 90 degrees enter the forecast for many areas by next Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Objective analysis this afternoon showed an upper level ridge pushing into the western U.S. with heights rising across our area. Dry, subsident northwesterly flow aloft over the Southwest is in place, allowing clear skies and abundant sunshine to reign over the region. ACARS soundings showed dry conditions being observed through the entire column with stations across the CWA observing dewpoints in the teens. Temperatures today will be several degrees warmer compared to yesterday as highs across the lower deserts top out in the low to mid 80s across the lower deserts and mid to upper 80s across Yuma and the Imperial Valley. We`ll see the warming trend continue into Saturday as the ridge axis passes through the region tomorrow. Chances for hitting 90 degrees tomorrow afternoon looks to remain pretty low with the best chances residing across the Imperial Valley (~40%) and Yuma area (~50%). Increasing cloud cover tomorrow ahead of our next weather system will aid in mitigating temperatures from achieving the 90 degree mark tomorrow. Winds will begin to increase tomorrow afternoon as gradients tighten in response to the approaching trough that will bring us several days of gusty winds and cooler temperatures along with chances for light rain on Sunday. Ensemble guidance depict this trough progressing toward the southeast from the eastern Pacific over the next several days before the trough axis passes through the Desert Southwest Sunday. The main impact with this system will be the winds with the ECMWF EFI highlighting the potential for anomalously strong winds, particularly across southeast California and areas near and along the Lower Colorado River Valley. We`ll continue to monitor trends and issue any wind products as needed. Strong winds will also promote the potential for areas of blowing dust, especially areas that are more susceptible to being dust prone. Blowing dust can result in dangerous travel conditions, so anyone with travel plans this weekend should keep this in mind. On top of the potential for blowing dust, strong winds combined with dry conditions in place will promote an elevated fire danger. Rain chances with this system will remain low with NBM PoPs generally under 20% on Sunday across the Valley with higher chances north and east of the Phoenix area over the higher locales. The majority of the ensemble members show little if any rainfall accumulation with this system. Most areas will stay dry. Confidence for cooler temperatures Sunday remains high with high temperatures expected to be 8 to 15 degrees cooler compared to Saturday. That might be enough for any early heat acclimatizers to feel a bit chilled. Strong ridging will allow temperatures to recover quickly and with a return of the upper 80s expected no later than Thursday. Chances for widespread readings in the low 90s are 70% or greater for most areas between Phoenix and the Salton Sea next Friday. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0005Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: As high cirrus increases over the region Saturday, unusual wind tendencies in the late afternoon and evening will be the primary weather issue. Confidence is good that west winds with occasional gusts ~15kt will become the traditional easterly by late evening. However, east winds will likely prevail much later into the afternoon Saturday, then obtain a southerly cross runway component around 10kt late in the afternoon. Unusual S/SE winds may prevail into the evening before a front switches direction to SW with stronger gusts late evening and overnight. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Strengthening and gusty S/SW winds late Saturday afternoon will be the main weather issue with just occasional passing high cirrus. Through Saturday morning, light winds with the typical directions will prevail though directions will quickly become S to SW early in the afternoon. By later afternoon and evening, gusts 25-30kt should be common at KBLH while mountain waves may propagate into KIPL with gusts 30-35 kt common. && .FIRE WEATHER... Sunday through Thursday: Temps cool closer to seasonal normals Sunday and Monday but will warm quickly thereafter. The upper 80s and low 90s are likely by the end of the week. A weather system will bring strong breezes to many areas Sunday and possibly through Monday. Wind gusts of 15-25 mph will be common and areas with even stronger gusts possible. Lingering breeziness through the week cannot be ruled out either. A few showers are possible Sunday and early Monday, more so for the higher terrain of Gila County, but totals above 0.10" will be few and far between. RH mins will return to the single digits early in the week and overnight recoveries will struggle to exceed 30-35%. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, Twitter, and at DISCUSSION...Smith/12 AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...12