Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/02/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
846 PM EST Tue Mar 1 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along with drier air will build into the region through mid-week. Temperatures will be above normal from Wednesday through the weekend with the exception of Friday. The warmest days should be Sunday and Monday as deep southerly flow develops. Dry weather is likely through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Temperatures dropping quickly away from urban areas this evening after sunset with clear skies and light winds. Near surface inversions are already well developed based on aircraft soundings out of CLT. Therefore, I have knocked temps down a degree or two to come better in line with current low temp thinking. No other changes needed this evening. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Northwesterly 500mb flow will persist on Wednesday as another upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region into New England. Surface high pressure will remain in place as well providing another fair weather day with mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures and a dry atmosphere with PWAT values less than a half inch. High temps on Wednesday will push through the mid and upper 70s. Temperatures will warm further on Thursday as flow becomes a bit more zonal from the west aloft and surface southwesterly flow develops with rising thicknesses. High temperatures should reach the lower 80s in the central and eastern Midlands. Overnight lows each night will be in the mid to upper 40s with reasonable radiational cooling. Upper level ridging will move into the Great Lakes and OH/TN Valley regions on Friday with confluent flow over New England which will result in high pressure building over the northeast and Mid-Atlantic pushing a backdoor front through the forecast area. No precipitation is expected with the boundary with PWAT values only around 0.7 inches and no instability. The boundary should usher in some cooler air and there likely will be some cloud cover associated with the front so temperatures should cool off a bit on Friday, especially across the northern Midlands resulting in a strong temperature gradient over the area. Highs expected to range from the mid 60s north to upper 70s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Benign but warm weather expected through the long term period as ensembles indicate anomalously strong 500mb heights building over the region through the weekend. Surface high pressure will be centered offshore with a southerly flow over the forecast area. NAEFS ESAT tables also showing heights and temps in the 90+ percentiles through Monday. This will result in well above normal temperatures nearly 15 to 20 degrees above normal with possible record highs Sun/Mon, the warmest expected days. The pattern will begin to shift by Tuesday as the upper ridge axis shifts to the east and an upper trough over the middle of the country flattens and the 500mb flow becomes more zonal. Persistent low level southwesterly flow and increasing southwesterly flow aloft will support PWATs rising over an inch by Monday night into Tuesday. Will include low chance pops with possible shortwave energy and ample atmospheric moisture in place. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions for the TAF period. High confidence VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds through Wednesday afternoon. Some smoke may linger around aloft this evening near OGB, DNL, and AGS but no operational impacts are expected. Winds develop out of the west by Wednesday afternoon, sustained 8-10 knots with gusts up to 16-18 kt. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected this week, except late night/early morning fog possible mid to late week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...