Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/17/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
522 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 459 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022 Strong southwest winds are ongoing at all terminals with the exception of MAF. Winds will become strong and southwesterly at MAF shortly after 00Z. Winds will gradually strengthen and become westerly with an incoming trough from the west. Blowing dust is possible and may reduce reduce visibility to MVFR. A cold front arrives early tomorrow morning. Winds are expected to remain strong and switch to northerly. Outside of the TAF sites, a High Wind Warning is currently in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Severe aircraft turbulence will be possible, especially for small aircraft, in the vicinity of the mountains. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 208 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022 At 18Z, the upper level trough was centered over southern Arizona. Ahead of this, surface winds over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico were veering to southwest in response to a surface trough over NE New Mexico. To the north, a cold front was stalled in the panhandles. Main concerns this afternoon will be wind and fire. Models develop a modest jet across SE New Mexico this afternoon, w/forecast soundings over KATS mixing out to 700mb or so, where 35- 45kt SW flow is forecast. This activity should spread east into the overnight hours as the upper trough arrives, along with a Pac front that the latest NAM puts at the Eddy/Lea County line at around 00Z. These winds, along with unseasonably warm highs this afternoon, will combine with critical relative humidity to result in Red Flag conditions over the western half of the FWA through early evening. Winds should actually increase after sundown w/the arrival of the Pac front, and BLDU is expected as the front moves in. However, fire wx concerns will diminish as humidity comes up w/loss of daytime heating. To the east, a weak dryline will sharpen up east of KMAF into the early evening. The Pac front will meet up w/the retreating dryline invof KMAF at around 03Z, w/models initiating convection just east of Midland shortly thereafter. NAM Forecast soundings steepen up mid-level lapse rates over KSNK to 9C/km by 03Z, w/0-6km shear in excess of 80 kts. Storm motion is SW ~ 40kts, so anything that develops will move out of the area quickly, although not before dropping some large hail and damaging winds to the far NE of the CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 208 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022 A broad upper trough will be across most of the country on Friday. Temperatures Friday afternoon will warm up from the previous day with highs mostly in the 50s and 60s as southerly surface winds return. The warming trend for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will continue for Saturday as winds strengthen out of the south with highs mostly in the 60s. An upper trough will begin to strengthen over the western part of the country on Sunday with an upper low just south of California. Surface winds across the area will become mostly southwesterly which will further aid in warming temperatures. Highs on Sunday will mostly be in the 70s. The upper low south of California will move northeastward and will combine with the strengthening upper trough over the western part of the country on Monday. Surface winds will strengthen out of the west to southwest Monday afternoon as the base of the upper trough moves over the region. This increase in upper lift from the upper trough will result in increasing precipitation chances across portions of the area on Monday. Temperatures will decrease a little on Tuesday with the upper trough beginning to move over the area but winds will again be gusty out of the southwest to west. Models are not in agreement on next Wednesday but generally expect a cold front to impact at least portions of the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 459 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022 Temperatures are expected to be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal today. Winds are also increasing out of the southwest this afternoon across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Winds will remain gusty out of the west this evening into tonight. High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory conditions are expected this afternoon through tonight from Southeast New Mexico to the Big Bend area. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to be 15 percent or less across most of the area this afternoon. These windy and dry conditions have resulted in critical fire weather this afternoon into early this evening from the northwest Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico southward to the Rio Grande. Conditions will improve on Thursday with the arrival of a cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 37 49 23 58 / 30 0 0 0 Carlsbad 35 51 24 59 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 45 67 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 42 56 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 31 45 28 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 30 47 21 56 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 27 57 18 57 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 38 51 24 57 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 39 51 25 57 / 20 0 0 0 Wink 36 53 23 57 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for Loving-Lower Brewster County-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Ward-Winkler. High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for Central Lea County- Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County. High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for Eddy County Plains- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....80 AVIATION...91