Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/13/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
240 PM PST Sat Feb 12 2022 .SYNOPSIS...12/236 PM. Unseasonably warm weather will continue this weekend as offshore flow remains in place. Noticeable cooling will begin Monday, then much cooler weather is expected Tuesday as a cold storm moves east of the area. There will be a slight chance of light rain showers and mountain snow showers Tuesday, along with gusty northwest winds. Dry conditions with a warming trend is expected for the remainder of next week, with periods of gusty northeast winds possible. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...12/231 PM. Significant warmup occurred today across coastal areas of LA/Ventura counties due to increased offshore flow that enhanced compressional warming and drying. Record highs of 88 degrees already reached today at Camarillo Airport and Oxnard, and UCLA at 89 degrees. Other notable temperatures this afternoon include LAX and Long Beach at 88 degrees, Hawthorne at 89 degrees, and Downtown LA at 85 degrees. The warmup across the LA Basin was due to a deep layer of easterly offshore flow in the boundary layer that was well noted on ACARS soundings this morning. Also high resolution WRF data captured the easterly offshore wind component and associated warming to the immediate coast across LA county. As of 2 pm, onshore sea breeze and cooling trend making a return to coastal areas. Santa Ana winds were generally gusting between 30 and 45 mph this morning across wind prone areas of LA/Ventura counties. The LAX-Daggett pressure gradient peaked at -5.3 mb this morning. Winds are starting to diminish this afternoon, and wind advisories have been allowed to expire. The upper level wind support and offshore pressure gradients are expected to be weaker tomorrow, peaking at around -3.5 mb in the morning. Northeast winds are expected to range between 15 and 25 mph tonight and Sunday morning in wind favored areas of LA/Ventura counties. An earlier onset of the sea breeze is expected on Sunday afternoon across the coastal plain, likely resulting in a few degrees of cooling from today`s very warm temperatures. NBM 1-D viewer temperature spreads for the LA coastal zone generally keeping temperatures in the lower to mid 80s across the LA basin on Sunday, with some valley locations likely pushing into the upper 80s. These temperatures seem reasonable based on 950 mb temperatures and timing of sea-breeze. High resolution WRF model showing sea breeze will return across the LA basin between 1 and 2 pm tomorrow which will likely usher in a cooling trend during the mid and late afternoon hours. A broad upper trough will approach the West Coast Sunday night and Monday, causing heights and thicknesses across the region to fall. While gradients will still be weakly offshore Sunday night, especially across L.A. County, they will turn quickly onshore on Monday. There may be some return of low clouds to the Central Coast late Sunday night and Monday, with possibly some dense fog. Max temperatures will be down several degrees in all areas west of the mountains on Monday, especially across the coastal plain, with little change in the mountains, and possibly a touch of warming in the Antelope Valley. Still, the warmest locations in the valleys could have highs near 80 degrees on Monday. The deterministic runs of the GFS, NAM, and the EC have the same general idea showing an upper low over the Pacific northwest Monday evening digging southward Monday night and Tuesday. The GFS and EC models along with the ensemble solutions have tracked further east and drier with the system on Tuesday. As a result, have trimmed back pops a bit more for Tuesday, generally in the 15-20 percent range. And would not be surprised if these pop trends continue to trend downward for most areas, with the exception of north facing mountain slopes where there will be some enhanced upslope flow. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...12/234 PM. The upper low will pull away from the forecast area Tuesday night, and clouds will decrease. Then, it looks as though it will be dry Wednesday through Saturday, with periods of gusty north to northeast winds once again. The EC ensemble max gusts suggest the peak of the winds will be late Thu into Fri, but at this point, it looks like just a moderate event. Max temps will rise to above normal levels by the end of next week, but not nearly to the levels of this past week and this weekend. && .AVIATION...12/1738Z. At 17Z at KLAX there was a surface-based inversion. The top of the inversion was at 1200 ft with a temperature of 24 deg C. High confidence in VFR conditions across the region through the fcst period. Gusty NE winds can be expected at KCMA and KOXR thru early this afternoon. KLAX...High confidence VFR conditions through the fcst period. Any E wind component will be 7 kt or less. KBUR...High confidence VFR conditions through the fcst period. && .MARINE...12/205 PM. Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Sunday night. Moderate confidence in a period of significant northwest winds over most if not all coastal waters Monday afternoon through Wednesday as a Pacific system drops into the region from the north. Winds and seas look most significant Monday Night through Tuesday, when wind gusts to 35 to 40 knots are likely and short period seas building up to 8 to 12 feet over the inner waters and up to 12 to 17 feet over the outer waters. Steep and dangerous seas for small craft can be expected. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Sunday for zones 41-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (TUE-SAT). Gusty Northwest to north winds are possible late Monday into Tuesday, strongest across Santa Barbara county and the I-5 corridor. Gusty northeast winds are possible Thursday into Friday. && $$ PUBLIC...Gomberg/DB AVIATION...Sirard MARINE...Sirard SYNOPSIS...DB Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: