Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 01/25/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
940 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 940 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 The 00Z guidance suite has begun to converge on a solution of narrow north-south oriented band of higher snow accumulations for areas near and south of Interstate 80 through tomorrow evening. Forecast soundings suggest a narrow window of enhanced lift co-located within a deepening DGZ near sunrise tomorrow and continuing into the early afternoon. This will lead to efficient snow processes and increased totals where lift is maximized. SLRs will increase through the morning hours, from ~11-12:1 to ~13-15:1 by tomorrow evening. The enhanced snow accumulations will occur in a limited window, with the upper trough axis swinging through by late afternoon and the deeper lift abating as this occurs. However, some guidance suggests a longer period of light snow into the evening hours. This would likely add to snow totals, albeit less than the morning/early afternoon round. Have extended POPs into the early evening to account for this threat. Exactly where the band sets up remains somewhat low confidence, though locally higher totals (>3") would be possible. With this in mind, have bumped QPF and snow totals and have hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for counties along and south of I-80. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Active weather will start off the short term as a Colorado low develops to the west tonight. This system will mainly be confined to our west, but much of southwest and western Nebraska is expected to be be clipped with some light precipitation tonight and into Tuesday. Model guidance on location and track remains steady for this system. Snow is expected to begin by early evening across the Panhandle and slowly spread southeast throughout the remainder of the night. There is some concern though that some banded snowfall may develop early in the event across southwest Nebraska however exactly where those bands could set up is uncertain. While banded snow is hard to forecast, have still increased snow totals a few tenths generally south of I-80 to accommodate possible slightly higher amounts. On the flip side, there is still a concern that the developing high pressure system to the east may push the snow further west, resulting in snow totals that are much less than what is currently forecasted. While most models keep the high to the east long enough for at least some snow, there is always that marginal possibility. Confidence in this happening though is low. In addition to snow, cold wind chills may be possible across extreme north central Nebraska tonight. Here, wind chills down to -10 degrees could be possible. Elsewhere, clouds and snow will keep wind chills slightly warmer in the positive single digits. Precipitation will generally be pushed to the south by Tuesday afternoon, however, a few lingering snow showers may persist into the afternoon especially across Perkins, Chase, and Hayes counties. Any additional accumulations should be minimal. High pressure will then return for Tuesday night with dry conditions prevailing. Cold air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the -12 to -4 degree range will also be possible behind the departing low on Tuesday night. As a result of this combined with clear skies, wind chill values may drop into the -5 to 5 degree range across southwest Nebraska and into the central Sandhills. Across extreme north central Nebraska, wind chills as low as -10 degrees may be seen. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 For the extended, quiet and dry conditions will continue across north central and western Nebraska. High pressure remain over the region for the remainder of the week and into next weekend. A few model runs are still suggesting some light precipitation associated with a strong positively tilted trough on Thursday across the Panhandle. Have held off on putting any snow into the prevailing forecast at this time as confidence continues to remain very low. If snow does develop off the front ranges, QPF is expected to be light and therefore, not much snow will fall. Current thinking is that this trough will only bring some increasing clouds across the eastern Panhandle and southwest Nebraska. Will continue to keep an eye on this and adjust the forecast as confidence increases through mid-week. Warm air advection into the region will allow surface temperatures to climb back into the 40s for Wednesday and eventually into the low to mid 50s by Saturday and Sunday. Thursday will be the one cool day as the trough digs south and cooler air filtering out of Canada push into the region. Highs this day will return to the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Expect conditions will trend down at KVTN and especially KLBF through tonight. Cigs at KVTN will generally remain MVFR though may briefly pop up to VFR this evening, and vsbys will become MVFR with some light snow developing toward daybreak. However conditions will improve at KVTN during the latter portion of the valid period with a return to VFR expected by Tuesday afternoon. Cigs at KLBF will sink to MVFR toward Midnight then continue downward to IFR by daybreak, with vsbys following suit as light snow develops. Expect conditions to start trending up later Tuesday morning with snow ending by the afternoon, though cigs will remain MVFR through the end of the valid period. Winds may be a bit gusty for an hour or two after issuance but generally expect northeasterly winds to remain on the light side with little impact to aircraft operations. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for NEZ056>059-069>071. && $$ UPDATE...Brown SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...MBS