Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 12/15/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
533 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 Shallow low-level mstr will return w this evening and the low- level jet will develop around 06Z/Wed. As such winds will remain up overnight at MAF/FST near 15kts at times. Also a brief appearance of MVFR/IFR CIGS are probable at MAF/HOB, respectively. Before 18Z winds will increase and turn sw-w with gusts of 30-40kts. Also a well development mtn wave will form in the morning across the GDP Mtns and light low flying aircraft may experience severe turbulence. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 A potent upper lvl trough will dig across the southern Rocky Mtns tonight and eject into the Central Plains tomorrow afternoon. As it does so, the assocd 500-700 hpa jet will increase, especially over far NW portions of our CWA. Tonight we will see a stout low-lvl jet develop which will pull moisture into the Permian Basin and potentially bring low clouds/patchy fog into the region. Lows will be well above normal due to the uptick in moisture. Early tomorrow morning, the approaching 500 hpa trof will induce a sfc low in the lee of the Rockies and cause winds to increase out of the WSW. This will help elevate high temperatures 15-20F above normal! Near record highs will be possible across our region as well. Current record high for MAF is 82F and we are forecasting 81F. High winds are a sure bet for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and we will go ahead and upgrade to a HWW there. Advisory level winds are also expected to overspread the adjacent plains of Culberson County and SE New Mexico where a Wind Advisory is now in effect beginning at 10 AM MST tomorrow. The strong winds combined with dry conditions during peak heating will increase fire weather concerns in the aforementioned areas (see fire wx discussion below). Winds should subside and begin to shift out of the NW after sunset with lows settling into the 30s and 40s by Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 On Thursday a weak upper trough will be moving across the Nrn Plains as a stronger trough is taking shape back over the NW. On Friday the southern portion of this trough will back build down across Srn CA and AZ then dip into Nrn Mexico Saturday before coming across the area Sunday. High pressure builds in behind that. Temperatures on Thursday will be cooler behind the Pacific front but still above normal in the mid 60s to lower 70s... with Friday a couple degrees warmer. A Cold front late Friday/early Saturday will result in much colder temperatures for the weekend with highs in the 50s. Warmer temps return early next week. Lows Sunday morning may fall below freezing for the northern half of the area and across the higher elevations. Given the dry trend the past few months expect little measurable precipitation... however in the extended models are carrying some light precipitation Saturday mainly south which happens to coincide with some temperatures falling to or below 32 degrees Saturday night. Therefore have added a rain/snow mix to those locations but currently expect very little of either. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 57 80 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 46 73 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 53 77 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 54 85 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 50 64 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 47 75 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 43 76 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 55 80 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 54 80 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 48 80 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for Eastern Culberson County. High Wind Warning from 7 AM CST /6 AM MST/ to 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County. High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM MST Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$