Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 10/08/21

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
625 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday/ Late afternoon surface analysis reveals a 1010 mb low over western KS with a surface trough extending from this low south across the Southern Plains. In the mid levels, GOES-E water vapor channel imagery shows a deep trough beginning to dig into the western CONUS. As this mid-level trough digs into the western CONUS, differential cyclonic vorticity advection will lead to surface cyclogenesis across the Southern Plains, deepening the surface low. The large-scale surface pressure falls along the lee of the Rockies will enhance low-level southerly flow. Short-range model guidance shows southerly sustained winds of 15-20 MPH across parts of North TX by Friday afternoon with gusts to around 25 MPH. This is short of wind advisory criteria, but it will be a breezy day nevertheless. Caution should be exercised on north-to-south oriented lakes as well as east-west highways across the region. Otherwise, mostly sunny and dry weather will continue, but humidity will tick up slightly as the robust southerly flow allows moisture return to begin across the region. Godwin && .LONG TERM... /Issued 323 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021/ /Moving Into The Weekend & Early Next Week/ The good news first. Your weekend should be mainly rain-free with low humidity, as a persistent upper ridge over the area through Saturday continues to keep a lid on rain chances. Then we will transition to a fast southwest flow component aloft by Sunday in between the dampening upper ridge to our southeast and an impressive longwave trough organizing across the Rockies and High Plains. Now the bad news for the weekend (for some at least), temperatures will remain toasty and well above normal in the lower-mid 90s for most. With some stressed small vegetation across the area, this could result in elevated grass fire conditions on Saturday just about areawide, then across areas west of US-281 Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, the humidity will also increase, making the heat feel even more oppressive, especially for those across Central TX where dew points will be the most moist. Heat index values will remain well below 100 degrees, so at least those days are now past. Some food for thought about how well above normal we are for early-mid October. Normals are in the lower-mid 80s. Our current forecast highs both days could push records at both DFW and Waco. DFW`s records are:(Sat - 96/2017 & Sun - 95/1975), while Waco`s are: (Sat - 94/1963,2017 & Sun - 96/1975). The weather pattern continues to become more unsettled beginning Sunday night into Monday with a vigorous lead mid level impulse lifting east across the TX/OK Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening, before progressively moving east across the Ozarks of southern MO/AR on Monday. This will draw a surface dryline into our far western counties Sunday evening, before a fairly weak and benign cold front moves through Monday, before washing out somewhere across Central/E TX Monday Night into Tuesday morning. As most already know, hot temperatures, increasing moisture and instability, along with lift will provide better convective rain chances across North Texas, with lesser chances across Central Texas. Still, the best kinematics and effective shear remains primarily across OK/AR/Southern MO, so figuring out the thermodynamic profiles will be interesting to see where the cap best erodes, as well as storm modes (discrete supercellular versus linear). Timing will be everything regarding initiation, as initial isolated discrete supercells, especially N of I-20 will be possible. After dark Sunday evening, we will get a strong 30-40kt LLJ that will likely enhance the low level warm advection into the weak frontal boundary for a broken line of storms, or possibly tail end of a nocturnal MCS for northern and eastern counties later Sunday night into Monday. We`ll continue to refine our thoughts on timing and main hazards and impacts as we move closer to the first potential severe weather event in quite awhile here. Though convective chances will linger with the slowing/weakening surface front across E/SE TX on Monday, the nicer weather won`t last for long. Highs will in the 80s will prevail on Monday, before the old front lifts back north as a warm front on Tuesday in response to another system and left exit region of another strong upper jet maximum driving ENE across the Southern Rockies and across the Southern High Plains and OK/TX Panhandles once again. This is quite a quick turn around after the event Sunday night and Monday morning. Highs behind the warm front will likely heat up back into the upper 80s to lower 90s with moisture return and increasing instability. On top of that, the approaching large- scale ascent and lift along and north of the warm front will likely bring some interesting hodographs to coincide with that. Like our first system, the entire synoptic evolution and timing remains very uncertain, as does how the thermodynamic environment aligns with the better shear and lift. Still, later Tuesday and Tuesday evening could be the day of seeing supercell storms with the potential for all modes of severe weather, especially near and north of the warm front. Another Pacific cold front drives through our area with higher rain chances on Wednesday. Cooler high temperatures in the 70s and 80s return! The unsettled weather pattern does continue through the end of the week, but ensembles do show some dampening of the mean flow across the Southern CONUS. For now, it looks like after Tuesday/early Wednesday, the threat for any more severe weather appears much lower at this time with continued Fall-like temperatures and more stable low-level airmass. Low chances for mainly showers with isolated, non-severe storms will be the primary weather impacts the late next week. 05/Marty && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR and south flow will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. South winds will increase to 12-15 KT after 18Z Fri with gusts to around 25 KT likely during the afternoon. Wind directions should be 170-190 which will preclude significant crosswinds at TAF locations, but light aircraft should be aware of the gusty wind potential. Winds will be slightly veered off the surface, but should be weak enough (20-25 KT) to prevent any LLWS issues. Wind gusts will subside after 00Z Sat. Godwin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 95 69 94 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 65 93 63 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 64 91 66 92 66 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 67 95 65 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 67 94 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 69 95 70 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 64 93 64 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 65 92 65 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 64 93 62 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 63 94 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$