Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/12/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
743 PM MDT Fri Jun 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A warming and drying trend begins, today. By Tuesday, highs are expected to reach into the triple digits across some areas. These forecast temperatures are well above normal for this time of year. Mid next week, temperatures are expected to cool a bit, while still remaining above seasonal averages. && .UPDATE... Increasing cloudiness is expected overnight across the region, along with some overnight precipitation along The Divide. Otherwise, north central, central and southwest Montana remain dry. Forecast is on target; therefore, no updates will be made, at this time. - Fogleman && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday... Weak upper level ridging dominates The Treasure State, today. Expect dry conditions, even as a warming trend begins. With an upper level closed area of lower heights located over North Dakota, and the approach of a North Pacific Trof from the west, an already weak ridge weakens further, and a tightening height gradient across The Rocky Mountain Front favors widespread mildly gusty winds across Montana. Perturbations in the flow aloft favor some precipitation along The Great Divide overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning. During this period, a strong closed upper level area of higher heights strengthens over western Texas/southern New Mexico causing a strong ridge to develop and extend northward into The Canadian Northwest Territories. The closed upper level height migrates northward, settling over The Four Corners region. Expect dry conditions and warming temperatures to continue, with highs reaching into the triple digits across some areas, by Tuesday afternoon. Periods of gusty winds are expected each day. As we progress through this period, Relative Humidity (RH) values fall, and by Tuesday, RH values are forecast in the the low to mid teens across most of our area. Confidence is high in terms of the coming hot temperatures and low RH values. Confidence is moderate in terms of meeting fire weather wind criteria. With this anticipated hot, dry and windy weather, we are closely monitoring fire weather concerns, and will continue to update as necessary. Wednesday through next Friday... Wednesday, the afore mentioned upstream upper level North Pacific Trof moves eastward and squeezes up against the Montana overhead ridge, removing some mass from the ridge, and filling the trof a bit. With a closed upper level area of lower heights located over the Canadian Alberta/Saskatchewan region, and the closed high heights over The U.S. Four Corners region, a strong cross barrier flow sets up across The Rocky Mountain Front favoring strong gusty winds across The North/South Rocky Mountain Front during the day on Wednesday. Temperatures cool by about 10 to 15 degrees for the remainder of this period keeping temperatures above normal, in the mid 70s to 80s. Wednesday`s minimum RH values are forecast to reside in the mid teens to low 20s, and with the expected gusty winds, we continue to focus on fire weather concerns. Beginning Thursday, numerical forecast model solutions become rather divergent in their solutions for the last couple days of this forecast period. Model agreement; and therefore, higher confidence is found in the persistence of the upper level closed heights over The Four Corners region; however, the behavior of the atmosphere across The Northwest U.S. is somewhat uncertain. Forecast confidence for Thursday and Friday is low to moderate, in continued warm and dry weather with possible periods of gusty winds. We continue to monitor and share forecast updates and confidence as we move forward. - Fogleman && .AVIATION... 557 PM MDT Friday Jun 11 2021 (12/00Z TAF period) VFR conditions are forecast at all airfields for the duration of this TAF period. Winds are forecast to gust to 26KT. Funneled winds impact light aircraft flying through mountain passes. Overnight, precipitation is forecast along The Divide. - Fogleman Refer to for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 45 76 47 88 / 10 10 0 0 CTB 43 69 43 84 / 10 10 0 0 HLN 48 79 51 91 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 43 81 46 90 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 33 73 36 85 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 43 78 46 88 / 0 10 0 0 HVR 46 77 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 43 76 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$