Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/11/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1045 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 There has been dense cloud cover across the area today with cold air aloft and steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Water vapor imagery at 1930Z indicated a shortwave was also moving over northeast WI in association with the closed low across southern Ontario. Isolated to scattered showers were once again developing and evident on radar, however there have been few reports of anything reaching the ground in the obs. There was a brief rain shower reported in Manitowoc around 18Z, and a few sprinkles have been noted just outside our office, too. Similar to the past several days, expect diurnal showers to remain light and scattered through early in the evening. Isolated graupel is also possible. Showers will be most likely across northeast and east- central WI closer to the forcing associated with the shortwave. Tonight...Models are insistent on clearing the clouds out from north to south from 00Z to 06Z this evening. A little uncertain whether clearing will occur quite this rapidly due to how much cloudiness is out there right now; but either way expect the surface high, which as been situated around Manitoba, to shift southeast towards WI overnight. This will eventually lead to clearing skies and light winds, and as a result falling temperatures. Have issued a Freeze Warning for most of the area with lows expected to fall into the 20s to around 30 degrees. A Frost Advisory was issued for the Fox Valley and east- central WI were lows will range from about 31 to 34 degrees. Widespread frost is likely across the forecast area. Tuesday...Will start to see a change in the weather pattern as the upper low which has been influencing the weather across the area the past several days starts shifting east. High pressure continues to build in at the surface which will lead to mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 50s along the lakeshore and in the mid 50s to around 60 elsewhere. .LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will keep the weather dry during the middle part of this week. There appears to be another round of frost/freeze headlines across the area Tuesday night as lows fall into the 20s across the north, with lower to middle 30s across central and east-central Wisconsin. Temperatures then gradually warm throughout the week as the high shifts off to the east, allowing warmer temperatures to advect into the region and ending the threat for additional headlines. The dry weather could come to an end late in the week and into the weekend as the flow shifts to a more zonal pattern. Recent model trends do indicate the chances for rain during this period could be in question as a low pressure system approaching from the west gets pushed a bit south and may only graze the southern portion of the cwa. This part of the forecast will need to be monitored as the system tracking back north will bring the precipitation back into the region. The confidence and certainty in this portion of the forecast is rather low given the lack of a strong low pressure system to grasp onto. Temperatures during this period are expected to rise to around or even slightly above normal for this time of year. Early next week there are indications that a more substantial low pressure system could bring a round of moderate to heavy rain somewhere across the western Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. However, like the previous period, confidence is rather low as not all of the long term models indicate this will be the case. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 VFR flight conditions will continue through Wednesday, with high base cumulus clouds forming around midday and dissipating in the evening. When the skies clear tonight and Tuesday night temperatures will fall and frost is likely on aircraft parked outside. Visibility will be excellent through Wednesday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ022-038>040-048>050. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ005-010>013-018>021- 030-031-035>037-045-073-074. && $$ SHORT TERM.....KLJ LONG TERM......Kurimski AVIATION.......RDM