Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/08/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1036 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 It did not take long for skies to cloud over this morning due to cold air filtering in around 850mb and a mid-level shortwave brushing across northeast WI. Scattered rain showers have also been occurring across northeast and east- central WI which occasionally produced some small graupel as well. Tonight...Showers and clouds will quickly begin to dissipate early this evening with the loss of daytime heating at the surface and as the shortwave exits the state. High pressure builds in at the surface which will lead to several hours of light to calm winds overnight. As a result, temperatures will fall to near or several degrees below freezing. Forecast lows range from the low to middle 20s in north- central WI, to the upper 20s in central WI, and the low 30s across the Fox Valley and east- central WI. Therefore, issued a Freeze Warning for the entire forecast area from midnight to 8AM. Anyone with cold sensitive outdoor plants should take the necessary steps to protect the plants tonight, and for the next several nights as similar low temps are expected. Saturday...After a seasonably chilly and sunny morning, temperatures will be a little warmer tomorrow, reaching the mid to upper 50s away from Lake Michigan. This is about 10 degrees below normal for early May. Clouds will increase during the afternoon, first from destabilization, and then some high clouds will move in from a weather system moving across the central Plains. A few light showers or sprinkles are possible in far northeast WI, but will not be as numerous as today. .LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 The main issue in the extended will be the continued below normal temperature trend through the first half of the work week, with frost/freeze expected overnight and early in the mornings. A trend toward normal or above normal can be expected for the end of next week. Saturday night and Sunday: A low pressure system is progged to shift from eastern KS Saturday evening into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon. The more concentrated moisture and forcing is expected to remain south of the area through this time period; however, cloud cover is expected to increase throughout the day Sunday. Aloft, an upper-level closed low is expected to drift across central Canada and linger near James Bay. This will allow intermittent shortwaves to pass through northeast Wisconsin. The main impact will be an increase in afternoon cloud cover and perhaps an isolated shower or sprinkles. The air in the lower levels of the atmosphere looks to be fairly dry for Sunday afternoon, so went with a dry forecast at this point. Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 20s to around 30 near the UP/WI border to the mid and upper 30s across central and east-central WI. This will likely require another frost/freeze headline late Saturday night into Sunday morning. High temperatures are expected to be in the 50s. Sunday night through Monday night: The aforementioned upper trough will drift very slowly off to the east during this time period. This will keep a trough axis across much of the area. Again, not expecting much precipitation; however, cloud cover will likely increase during the afternoon hours and diminish overnight. This will lead to lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s, again leading to frost/freeze headline issuances. Highs will be in the 50s. Rest of the extended: A surface high pressure system and upper-level ridging is expected to slide across the area for much of this time period; however, there are some model agreement issues for Wednesday into Thursday as a shortwave is expected to pass through the area. The GFS has more moisture with this feature, while the EC continues to keep dry air in place. At this point, have decided to stick with a consensus of the models, giving increasing temperatures and increasing chance for rain. Temperatures are expected to warm to near or above normal by the end of the work week. Upper 60s to around 70 looks possible by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 High based cumulus clouds will dissipate over eastern Wisconsin by shortly after midnight with clear skies expected overnight. Pilots may need to clear frost from aircraft parked outdoors if they are departing before sunrise Saturday. Saturday will be sunny to start with scattered to broken cumulus clouds with bases between 5000 and 8000 feet in the afternoon. Some virga is possible from these clouds. Skies should clear Saturday evening, with good flying weather Sunday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ005-010>013- 018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ SHORT TERM.....KLJ LONG TERM......Cooley AVIATION.......RDM