Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/06/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
441 PM MST Wed May 5 2021 .UPDATE...00Z aviation discussion. .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures will be near 100 degrees today through Friday. Temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 90s this weekend and into early next week along with a return of breezy conditions. No precipitation is in the forecast through the next 7 days. && .DISCUSSION... The lower troposphere has warmed a few degrees from this time 24 hours ago, as evident on aircraft soundings, and a negatively tilted ridge is in place across the region. A few cirrus have been passing over the area, but coverage is not enough to have any sensible influence on temperatures this afternoon. The latest NBM is still showing around 40-60% chance of reaching or exceeding 100 degrees in Phoenix this afternoon and a 70-80% Thursday. Sky Harbor is still yet to reach the mark this year and if able to today or tomorrow it will be only a few days later than normal. Regardless if 100 is reached, temperatures will present a moderate heat risk for Phoenix and other metropolitan areas. Thursday, the ridge axis will shift to western NM with more of a southerly to south-southwesterly synoptic flow prevailing over the area. As a 700 mb high slides into West Texas a moisture axis will develop in Mexico and extend north into NM and parts of southeast AZ. Within this moisture axis, most models are developing convection tomorrow afternoon. A few showers and/or an isolated storm cannot be ruled out in southeast Gila county, but HREF suggests most if not all convection will stay just outside the local CWA. Temperatures will cool as a trough progresses into the western CONUS this weekend. WPC cluster analysis is still in favor of a lower amplitude trough, with around 20-30% of the solutions suggesting a deeper trough, mostly dominated by GEFS members. So with the lower amplitude solution favored, temperatures are unlikely to cool too drastically. NBM is showing afternoon temperatures still reaching the mid-90s across the lower deserts Saturday through the middle of next week. Precipitation remains unlikely with this trough as virtually all ensemble members show no measurable precipitation. The trough pattern will at least result in slightly breezier conditions and possibly areas of windy conditions if the lower probability deeper trough solution comes to fruition. WPC clusters show very little agreement for the middle of next week, with a roughly equal proportion of members showing continued weak troughing or ridging rebuilding over the area. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2341Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation impacts expected through the period. Winds will favor normal diurnal trends staying aob 9 kts. Can`t rule out a few thermal gusts early this evening, mainly at KDVT. Westerly winds to persist later-than-usual overnight, likely becoming easterly around/shortly after midnight. Typical switch to westerly around 20- 21Z on Thursday (likely after a short period of light southerly crosswinds), with these westerly winds likely persisting well into Thursday night. FEW-SCT decks at times through evening then mostly clear conditions will prevail. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation impacts expected through the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear with just occasional high clouds aoa 25 kft. At KIPL, winds will favor the southeast through the TAF period with light winds picking up a bit Thursday morning. At KBLH, winds will favor the south-southwest, with a few gusts in the teens possible early this evening. Stronger southerly winds to return Thursday afternoon at KBLH, with sustained winds in the mid-teens with gusts rising into the mid-20`s. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday through Wednesday: Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week with highs in the mid 90s. Min RHs will remain around 10% or lower most afternoons while recoveries rise into the 20-30% range for most places, except near Imperial and Yuma where maximum values of 30-50% will be common. Breezy conditions are likely each afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Benedict AVIATION...Percha/D`Anthony/Feldkircher FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Hodges