Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/10/21

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
853 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 .UPDATE... The dry line has stalled just west of Austin to San Antonio, with the sea-breeze meeting up with it. The cap held and what little convection developed earlier quickly dissipated. The cold front is moving quickly south through west-central Texas, and will arrive into the northern Hill Country just before midnight and into the I-35 corridor around 1-2AM. Breezy and gusty conditions will develop behind it. There was some dust along the front in west Texas and can`t rule out some of that reaching the northwest CWA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021/ AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... VFR conditions outside of any stray or isolated SHRA or TSRA that has a low chance of developing through 02Z near and north of AUS. So far the cap has resulted in only short-lived convection just to the north. Due to the low probability, and radar trends, we have elected to keep TSRA mention out of AUS TAF. Main issue are the winds. There should be a reduction in wind speeds temporarily after sunset. Then the cold front will move through the area between 04Z-08Z, with north winds over the Hill Country and along and east of the I-35 corridor, including SAT/AUS, increasing to around 15KT with gusts around 25KT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021/ UPDATE... The dry line is now moving into the I-35 corridor counties. Recent aircraft soundings out of AUS show the cap has weakened, although still there. Earlier convection that try to go up along the dry- line just north of the CWA quickly weakened. Recent visible imagery indicates the Cu looking better across Burnet County. There remains a small window over the next couple of hours for isolated convective development across the far northeast CWA, as additional low level moisture convergence is encountered between the dry line and slightly backed winds east of it. Should any deeper convection develop, it has the potential to quickly go strong to severe given the CAPE and shear parameters in place. But this is all highly conditional on the cap. FIRE WEATHER... We have expanded to Red Flag Warning another row of counties eastward and extended through 8PM. Critical fire weather conditions are ongoing across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, with localized extreme fire weather conditions along the Rio Grande, where RH values around 5% and wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph are occurring. Wind speeds will begin to decrease temporarily after sunset. However, a north wind shift will occur late in the evening and overnight behind a cold front with gusty winds re-developing. A brief period of critical fire weather conditions may re-develop west of I-35 to the Rio Grande as this happens, before cooler temperatures allow RH values to recover. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday Night)... After an overcast start to the day, clouds are finally beginning to lift for areas along and east of I-35 as a clearing line makes it`s way over the area. Dryline that has now made it into the western Hill Country will continue to progress eastward this afternoon. The timing and extent of this eastward progression will have impacts for how far east the fire weather threat will be and how high temperatures can climb behind it. Critical fire weather will be in place for the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains through this evening and has prompted a Red Flag Warning for these areas through 700 PM. Potentially record setting temperatures will occur this afternoon for western areas with Del Rio`s record of 102 for April 9th likely being matched or broken. Depending on how far the dryline can make it, could near record high temperature for SAT as well. Looking at the big picture, upper level longwave troughing is in place across much of the CONUS with a pair of upper level lows embedded, one over the Great Lakes and the other moving across the Central Plains today. This has led to a surface low developing in the northern portion of the state that is currently being analyzed to be centered over Wichita Falls. This feature will bring a front across the region during the overnight period with a strong northerly windshift and cooler temperatures for Saturday. There is a substantial amount of instability in place across northeastern zones this afternoon with SFC CAPE nearing 4500 J/kg. Forecast soundings show a decent cap in place though across the entire area with high resolution models suggesting this cap will hold. The HRRR was showing a few isolated supercells initiating over Williamson and Travis County on some early model runs this morning but has backed off now. Current thinking is that we will remain capped and will see little to no convective activity this afternoon. However, if an isolated cell is able to initiate, it will likely turn severe very quickly with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. Will have to keep a close eye on high res model and radar trends this afternoon. Overnight, best estimate for FROPA is reaching the northern CWA by 05Z, reaching San Antonio by 07Z and exiting the CWA by 09Z. Near seasonal temperatures for much of the area on Saturday but still remaining above normal for southwestern zones. Upper 70s to mid 80s for Hill Country and I-35 corridor and upper 80s to low 90s for southwestern zones. Mostly clear skies with winds gradually becoming northeasterly then easterly and returning to southeasterly by the end of the short-term period. FIRE WEATHER... Critical fire weather conditions are in store this afternoon and evening across the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. A dryline that is currently progressing eastward out of the Rio Grande Plains and into the Western Hill Country has led to well above normal heat and much drier air. Breezy west to northwest winds and very low humidities to the above mentioned areas will continue through the afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country until 7 PM today. Temperatures will begin to decrease after sunset, but dry air remains intact for areas generally west of the Interstate 35 corridor. A brief period of near critical fire weather conditions may occur west of I-35 as a cold front brings an abrupt northerly wind shift. LONG TERM (Sunday through Thursday)... As noted at the end of the short term southerly flow returns by Sunday morning. Sunday will be another hot day with afternoon highs well above normal under sunny skies. Monday will follow suite but a surface low moving across North Texas will help drive a cold front through the state late in the day on Monday. Forecast soundings show decently dry air at the surface as well as a capping inversion across the I-35 corridor. These factors may limit the overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms, but with the front providing extra lift at least isolated showers and storms are possible. If a storm is able to get going, especially across the Rio Grande Plains, there could be a wind threat associated with it. The front stalls out somewhere between the I-10 corridor and the coast. Upper level flow becomes generally west-south westerly thanks to a large trough of low pressure sitting across the Mountain West for much of next week. With the washed out front and a series of weak disturbances, moving through the WSW flow rain chances look to stick around through much of next week. While moisture stays pooled across the area, surface flow will be light and northerly or easterly through much of the week. While rain chances are present for basically Monday through Thursday the big question will be rainfall amounts. The 12z ECMWF came in much drier and closer in line with the GFS that generally only shows 1/10 to 1/4 inch across the I-35 with as much as 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch across the Rio Grande Plains. The Canadian is still the wettest of the models with more widespread 1/2 to 1.5 inch totals by the end of next week. With no real defined sources of good lift most areas may only see generally light or more isolated precipitation. Will have to monitor the trends over the weekend, but for now it does seem like a slightly wetter pattern. Along with the rainfall temperatures behind Monday`s front will be on a slow decline with near normal afternoon highs by Wednesday, while lows remain mild and above normal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 58 81 53 90 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 58 81 51 91 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 60 84 53 92 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 54 79 52 89 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 61 88 61 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 56 80 51 90 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 61 87 54 94 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 58 82 51 91 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 61 80 52 90 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 61 84 56 92 64 / - 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 62 85 55 92 64 / - 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...Runyen Long-Term...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
650 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Tonight: Cold front will continue to push southeast into shallow moisture. Wavy warm front snakes across northeast OK, with good convergence and richer surface moisture to the south. So far ACARS soundings at OKC and TUL show very shallow moisture, although OKC has deepened considerably during the day. Virtually all models suggest storms/precipitation will become widespread in the vicinity of cold front and warm front late this afternoon and evening. Less than impressed with severe potential given shallow moisture and robust convection going over southeast OK, especially the 1-2 inch QPF that several models are generating near the KS/OK border. However likelihood of precipitation is high, so high probability of precipitation appears to be on track. Saturday-Saturday Night: Will linger clouds a bit longer as surface low winds up and is slow to move east. Increased precipitation chances a bit in extreme southeast KS in the morning, but ended precipitation by mid afternoon. With dry air, clear skies and light winds Saturday night as surface ridge moves across, will undercut NBM guidance given good radiational cooling. Some frost is possible, especially in southeast KS, but thinking it may be a bit early in the season for headlines. Sunday-Monday: Temperatures should recover on Sunday with mostly clear skies. Slow moving front is expected to make it about half way through the forecast area by sunset. No precipitation is expected with front given lack of moisture. Cooler air behind front will drop temperatures below climatology on Monday. -Howerton .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Medium range models continue to show a lot of run to run variation with the upper pattern. Trend by both ECMWF and GFS ensembles has been towards a deeper western trough/low and more ridging across the central US. Models show relatively cool airmass that arrives Sunday night-Monday remaining in place throughout the period. However would expect to see more moderation by second half of the period as lee trough develops and south flow returns. Of note deterministic 1200 UTC GFS is one of the coldest solutions for this period. Default initialization had rain/snow mix around daybreak in the vicinity of KRSL/KGBD most mornings, but given low confidence in cooler temperatures and low probability of precipitation, nixed mixed chances on Thursday and Friday mornings. Should also be noted, that the low probabilities of precipitation are indicative of model spread and uncertainty of when precipitation would occur. Do not expect continuous rain throughout the period. -Howerton && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Few storms are possible at KHUT, KICT and KCNU early, with rain showers ahead of the front at KCNU and post frontal showers elsewhere. VFR ceilings/visibility are expected outside of the heavier precipitation this evening. However MVFR ceilings will likely rotate around the low into the area later tonight and linger into the morning. Clouds should linger the longest at KCNU. Very gusty post frontal winds will gradually diminish this evening, but likely remain gusty well into midday. Winds should diminish late in the afternoon as surface ridge approaches. -Howerton && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Very high Friday danger will linger a few more hours across parts of central and south central KS before rain develops. Otherwise, low fire weather threat is expected with cooler temperatures, lighter winds and ongoing green up. - Howerton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 41 65 38 75 / 40 0 0 0 Hutchinson 39 64 37 75 / 60 0 0 0 Newton 40 64 37 75 / 70 10 0 0 ElDorado 42 65 38 76 / 70 10 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 42 66 39 77 / 40 0 0 0 Russell 36 65 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 36 64 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 40 65 35 75 / 80 0 0 0 McPherson 39 64 36 75 / 80 0 0 0 Coffeyville 44 63 38 75 / 90 20 0 0 Chanute 45 62 38 75 / 70 40 0 0 Iola 44 61 36 75 / 80 50 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 45 62 38 75 / 90 30 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ047>053- 067>070-082-083-091>093. && $$ SHORT TERM...PJH LONG TERM...PJH AVIATION...PJH FIRE WEATHER...PJH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
747 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Looks like quiet weather for the next few hours. With the setting of the sun, instability has decreased, convective inhibition increased, and the diurnal cumulus field has largely dissipated. Line of showers and storms to our north in central Indiana is still expected to remain north of the area. Storms over the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening will head to the ENE but will weaken as they approach central Kentucky and southern Indiana, resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between midnight and dawn primarily west of I-65. Issued at 539 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Storms don`t appear likely in southern Indiana or central Kentucky early this evening, but an isolated cell or two isn`t out of the question. Chances increase after midnight. A persistent band of training showers and thunderstorms has developed this afternoon across south central Indiana along a line of subtle surface convergence in a corridor of slightly negative lifted index values ahead of a weak 5H speed max crossing Illinois and Indiana. The convection is having to fight some very dry air. Precipitable water values are only around 0.7", surface dew points are in the 40s to around 50, and AMDAR soundings out of SDF are showing some very dry air below 725mb. Significant DCAPE of 1000-1200J/kg, steep low level lapse rates, and that dry sub-cloud air indicate that strong wind gusts will be the main threat from any stronger storms. It appears that the line will likely move very little and should primarily remain in central Indiana. KLVX and KVWX have shown some transient low/mid-level echoes in southern Indiana...however visible satellite loop is showing a diminishing trend in the cumulus field. && .Short Term...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Temperatures have soared into the 70s and low 80s this afternoon in response to modest southerly to southwesterly flow, deep boundary layer mixing, and mostly clear skies. Surface analysis reveals most frontal boundaries or systems with any impactful weather are well outside of the region. There is an area of very weak surface convergence just north and west of the CWA border in southern IN/IL where convection has tried to initiate this afternoon, though it has largely been inhibited by dry air in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere and warm air above 600mb. Should a storm be able to grow tall and overcome some of the `negative` influences of the atmosphere, relatively high DCAPEs (+1,000 J/KG) would allow it to pose a gusty wind threat. Given the placement of the weak convergence zone and storm motions, most activity should stay north of the region save the very northern portions of Dubois, Orange, Washington, Scott, and Jefferson counties (all Indiana) where a stray shower or storm could briefly brush up against them. We`ll start off tonight mostly clear, but clouds will gradually increase ahead of our next system. Appears that multiple rounds/clusters of showers and storms will initiate off to our south and west overnight, and gradually push toward us tomorrow morning. Not expecting an all day rain with this activity, as it will come in waves, but the biggest `wave` of precipitation will likely arrive in the 14-15z timeframe to our west and be pushing east of the region by 19-20z. Overall environment will be rather sub-par for storms, especially in the early morning hours. But models hint at some slight destabilization as we go into the afternoon hours and suggest a low-end strong to severe storm threat. Not completely sold on the potential to destabilize enough for strong/severe convection, as early morning cloud cover ahead of our main `wave` would likely result in marginal lapse rates and limited surface heating, but something that will be watched. The bigger story tomorrow may end up being gradient winds behind a surface trough ahead of the main cold front. Winds should quickly turn to the southwest in the wake of the surface trough and skies may even clear out some to allow a little bit of sunshine. Winds within the boundary layer become quite gusty and will likely result in 25-35 mph surface gusts for much of the region west of I-75 during the afternoon hours. Can`t rule out some isolated gusts to 40 mph as well, though we`d likely need to see some extended clearing before that happens. .Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 At the start of the long term period, expect to find surface low pressure system moving into the Upper Great Lakes region with the trailing N-S oriented cold front draped across central KY. As the cold front pushes through the area, any remaining precipitation will exit off to the east Saturday evening. A few scattered showers may then continue to be possible through Sunday morning as the upper low wobbles across the Great Lakes, although better chances will remain to our north where the better forcing will be. By Monday, closed 500 mb low will continue to spin over the Upper Great Lakes as another 500 mb system slides eastward across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, with the two consolidating into one closed low over the Upper Great Lakes region. Models then struggle with their handling of this system, leading to lower confidence for the end of the period. Overall, expect relatively dry weather throughout the week. A passing cold front Monday evening/night may bring some light rain showers to the area but moisture availability with this system remains in question. Otherwise, Canadian high pressure will continue to ooze southeast across the central CONUS next week resulting in slightly below normal temperatures. After highs in the lower to mid 70s on Monday, high temps will trend downwards into the lower to mid 60s by Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend with low temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s Sunday and Monday mornings then into the lower to mid 40s for the second half of the week. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 744 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Impacts: Prevailing VFR conditions overnight with breezy southerly winds. Mid-level clouds will develop towards morning and continue to drop into MVFR with the arrival of rain and even times of thunderstorms morning into afternoon. Conditions return to VFR conditions late afternoon into early evening tomorrow. Strong gusty southerly winds will also be a concern late tomorrow morning into the afternoon with gusts between 25-30kts. Discussion: Late overnight into early tomorrow morning, multiple waves of showers and even a few thunderstorms will work across the region from the southwest into the northeast associated with a passing SFC low to our north and trailing cold front. Precipitation won`t be all day and expected breaks in activity but will see a period of MVFR conditions from around mid/late morning until mid afternoon/early evening. Then CIG will lift, clouds will begin to break towards the end of the forecast period. Winds will also increase as the cold front approaches and the sfc low passes to our north. Southerly winds will be around 15-20kts with potential gusts 25-30kts, especially in the afternoon. Confidence: High on winds and precipitation. Moderate on timing of MVFR CIG and thunderstorm activity. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...13 Short Term...DM Long Term...JML Aviation...BTN