Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/28/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
707 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
No major changes were made to the previous forecast. As of 7PM,
areas of patchy fog remain mainly along and north of US-380. This
is expected to gradually dissipate and shift northward as the warm
front continues migrating into Oklahoma.
Storm chances will increase tomorrow with an approaching cold
front. For additional information, see previous discussion below.
/Today through Sunday Night/
Areas of dense fog persist at this hour across North Texas but a
warm front is now surging northward and visibilities should
improve as this occurs. Temperatures are in the mid 50s in the
clouds and fog along and north of I-20 and in the lower 70s to the
south of the warm front.
Latest surface analysis suggests that the warm front is located
along a line from near Athens to Granbury and will continue to
spread north through the afternoon. Low level moisture convergence
and theta-e advection is maximized just to the north of the
boundary and this is where the highest concentration of convection
is currently occurring. An ACARS sounding from DAL indicates that
this convective activity is rooted around 850 mb with inhibition
associated with the elevated mixed layer nearly gone. Steep lapse
rates >8 C/km are observed above 700 mb with MUCAPE around 700
J/kg. This environment will support isolated instances of hail
(perhaps to severe limits) into the afternoon, although the focus
for low level forcing will quickly spread northeast with the warm
front through late afternoon. This suggests that PoPs will be
highest from now through about 6pm before spreading into southeast
We should remain relatively quiet tonight although low level
moisture transport into the region will continue. We could see
another round of advection fog late tonight ahead of an
approaching cold front, although temperatures will be warmer and
may tend to inhibit widespread fog development. Nonetheless, we`ll
monitor for the potential into the early morning hours.
A strong shortwave will eject out of the 4-corners region late
tonight into Sunday and spread into West Texas by early morning.
As it does, a cold front will surge southward through the day.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the front with the environment becoming modestly unstable by
midday. While the front itself may tend to undercut developing
convection, there will be sufficient lift/instability for a few
strong/severe storms mainly across the eastern half of the region
through the afternoon. Hail would be the main threat. Most of the
frontal convection should quickly move to the east by early
evening, however our upper trough will become increasingly closed
off and will slow considerably. This will leave sufficient lift
and moisture in place for additional elevated convection across
the region Sunday night. Rain/storm chances would be highest south
.LONG TERM... /Issued 303 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021/
The fairly active weather pattern will continue as we begin a new
work week. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will once again be
possible Monday, potentially increasing the threat for minor
flooding. In addition, can`t rule out a few instances of small
hail Monday morning with the stronger storms. Additional rain
chances arrive the latter half of next week as yet another strong
system moves through the region.
A compact shortwave will be dropping southeastward out of the
Four Corners on Monday, gradually leading to increasing ascent
throughout much of North and Central Texas through the day. There
remains some slight differences in solutions regarding the exact
trajectory of the shortwave, mainly affecting the location of the
expected heavier precipitation. As of the latest guidance, the
greatest rainfall amounts appear to remain east of I-35 and south
of I-20, where 1-2 inches of rain will be possible. In addition,
we can`t rule out the potential for small hail to develop within
the more vigorous updrafts. At this time, it appears the potential
for this occurring would be south of Interstate 20 Monday
morning. This threat would likely be short-lived as single cells
gradually evolve into clusters of showers and storms.
Given the 700-500 mb low is likely to still be across West Texas
Monday evening, continued isentropic ascent will likely keep rain
chances going through much of the day. Highs on Monday are likely
to remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s throughout much of the
region. Rain chances will be decreasing Monday night into Tuesday
morning as drier air finally begins to filter in behind the
departing system. By Tuesday afternoon, all rain chances will be
east of or region, with a dry forecast continuing through
Another strong system will be approaching the region during the
Thursday/Friday timeframe. There remains some uncertainties in the
timing and location of the system and its attendant cold front.
Given the Pacific nature of the front, temperatures behind the
front will remain mainly in the 60s. Rain chances will once again
increase starting Thursday and stick around through Friday night.
Significant improvements have been taking shape across North and
Central Texas TAF sites. The warm front that led to the foggy
conditions much of the day has lifted north, currently along the
Tonight, although precipitation chances will remain fairly low,
ceilings are likely to deteriorate once again as moisture streams
northward. IFR is likely to overtake much of the region in
anticipation of the incoming cold front.
The front will be approaching the Dallas/Forth Worth Metroplex TAF
sites around 17Z Sunday and closer to 23Z across Waco. Along the
front, there will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms,
some of which could be strong. Behind the front, winds will become
northerly between 15-20 knots. Thunderstorm potential will
diminish by around 21Z across North Texas, but a few remnant
showers can`t be ruled out.
For Waco, thunderstorm potential remains a bit uncertain,
therefore, VCSH will be advertised for now. If the threat for
storms increases, VCTS may need to be added in later TAF
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 69 43 53 39 / 20 70 30 60 50
Waco 65 72 47 53 41 / 10 70 60 80 40
Paris 60 67 43 53 39 / 30 90 40 40 50
Denton 58 62 41 53 36 / 20 70 20 50 50
McKinney 61 67 43 53 39 / 20 70 30 50 50
Dallas 63 70 46 54 41 / 10 80 40 60 50
Terrell 63 70 46 53 39 / 10 80 50 70 50
Corsicana 65 75 48 54 41 / 10 80 60 80 50
Temple 64 75 46 52 39 / 10 60 70 80 30
Mineral Wells 56 63 40 51 35 / 10 60 30 60 30