Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/28/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
707 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: No major changes were made to the previous forecast. As of 7PM, areas of patchy fog remain mainly along and north of US-380. This is expected to gradually dissipate and shift northward as the warm front continues migrating into Oklahoma. Storm chances will increase tomorrow with an approaching cold front. For additional information, see previous discussion below. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Today through Sunday Night/ Areas of dense fog persist at this hour across North Texas but a warm front is now surging northward and visibilities should improve as this occurs. Temperatures are in the mid 50s in the clouds and fog along and north of I-20 and in the lower 70s to the south of the warm front. Latest surface analysis suggests that the warm front is located along a line from near Athens to Granbury and will continue to spread north through the afternoon. Low level moisture convergence and theta-e advection is maximized just to the north of the boundary and this is where the highest concentration of convection is currently occurring. An ACARS sounding from DAL indicates that this convective activity is rooted around 850 mb with inhibition associated with the elevated mixed layer nearly gone. Steep lapse rates >8 C/km are observed above 700 mb with MUCAPE around 700 J/kg. This environment will support isolated instances of hail (perhaps to severe limits) into the afternoon, although the focus for low level forcing will quickly spread northeast with the warm front through late afternoon. This suggests that PoPs will be highest from now through about 6pm before spreading into southeast Oklahoma. We should remain relatively quiet tonight although low level moisture transport into the region will continue. We could see another round of advection fog late tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, although temperatures will be warmer and may tend to inhibit widespread fog development. Nonetheless, we`ll monitor for the potential into the early morning hours. A strong shortwave will eject out of the 4-corners region late tonight into Sunday and spread into West Texas by early morning. As it does, a cold front will surge southward through the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front with the environment becoming modestly unstable by midday. While the front itself may tend to undercut developing convection, there will be sufficient lift/instability for a few strong/severe storms mainly across the eastern half of the region through the afternoon. Hail would be the main threat. Most of the frontal convection should quickly move to the east by early evening, however our upper trough will become increasingly closed off and will slow considerably. This will leave sufficient lift and moisture in place for additional elevated convection across the region Sunday night. Rain/storm chances would be highest south of I-20. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 303 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021/ /Monday Onward/ The fairly active weather pattern will continue as we begin a new work week. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will once again be possible Monday, potentially increasing the threat for minor flooding. In addition, can`t rule out a few instances of small hail Monday morning with the stronger storms. Additional rain chances arrive the latter half of next week as yet another strong system moves through the region. A compact shortwave will be dropping southeastward out of the Four Corners on Monday, gradually leading to increasing ascent throughout much of North and Central Texas through the day. There remains some slight differences in solutions regarding the exact trajectory of the shortwave, mainly affecting the location of the expected heavier precipitation. As of the latest guidance, the greatest rainfall amounts appear to remain east of I-35 and south of I-20, where 1-2 inches of rain will be possible. In addition, we can`t rule out the potential for small hail to develop within the more vigorous updrafts. At this time, it appears the potential for this occurring would be south of Interstate 20 Monday morning. This threat would likely be short-lived as single cells gradually evolve into clusters of showers and storms. Given the 700-500 mb low is likely to still be across West Texas Monday evening, continued isentropic ascent will likely keep rain chances going through much of the day. Highs on Monday are likely to remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s throughout much of the region. Rain chances will be decreasing Monday night into Tuesday morning as drier air finally begins to filter in behind the departing system. By Tuesday afternoon, all rain chances will be east of or region, with a dry forecast continuing through Wednesday night. Another strong system will be approaching the region during the Thursday/Friday timeframe. There remains some uncertainties in the timing and location of the system and its attendant cold front. Given the Pacific nature of the front, temperatures behind the front will remain mainly in the 60s. Rain chances will once again increase starting Thursday and stick around through Friday night. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Significant improvements have been taking shape across North and Central Texas TAF sites. The warm front that led to the foggy conditions much of the day has lifted north, currently along the Red River. Tonight, although precipitation chances will remain fairly low, ceilings are likely to deteriorate once again as moisture streams northward. IFR is likely to overtake much of the region in anticipation of the incoming cold front. The front will be approaching the Dallas/Forth Worth Metroplex TAF sites around 17Z Sunday and closer to 23Z across Waco. Along the front, there will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. Behind the front, winds will become northerly between 15-20 knots. Thunderstorm potential will diminish by around 21Z across North Texas, but a few remnant showers can`t be ruled out. For Waco, thunderstorm potential remains a bit uncertain, therefore, VCSH will be advertised for now. If the threat for storms increases, VCTS may need to be added in later TAF issuances. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 69 43 53 39 / 20 70 30 60 50 Waco 65 72 47 53 41 / 10 70 60 80 40 Paris 60 67 43 53 39 / 30 90 40 40 50 Denton 58 62 41 53 36 / 20 70 20 50 50 McKinney 61 67 43 53 39 / 20 70 30 50 50 Dallas 63 70 46 54 41 / 10 80 40 60 50 Terrell 63 70 46 53 39 / 10 80 50 70 50 Corsicana 65 75 48 54 41 / 10 80 60 80 50 Temple 64 75 46 52 39 / 10 60 70 80 30 Mineral Wells 56 63 40 51 35 / 10 60 30 60 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$