Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/14/21
Area Forecast Discussion - Corrected
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
543 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021
MVFR ceilings are continue at KPVW and KLBB early this evening
with KCDS seeing VFR conditions. Ceilings will slowly drop
tonight to MVFR/IFR at all three terminals as a storm system
approaches the region. Light snow may begin as early as 06z at the
area terminals with heavier snow beginning to fall a few hours
before sunrise. Breezy northeasterly winds will create blowing
snow tomorrow thus visibility issues will also occur. Lastly,
aircraft icing remains an issue through this TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021/
The system that brought some moisture and light snow to our area,
and a wintry mix to areas to our south, continues to move east
across northern Mexico into southern Texas. The upper-level trough
that will be the main player in the upcoming event is currently
entering the four corners region. This trough will deepen and
continue eastward towards the region.
A surface high will dip into central Texas, allowing for moist
isentropic upglide ahead of the incoming trough. Along with the lift
from the isentropic upglide, upper-level divergence will allow for
the potential for light snow to begin this evening ahead of the
front. As the upper trough and associated front nears, lift over the
area will increase. With progged sounding indicating much of the
saturated column within the Dendritic Growth Zone(DGZ), frontal
lift, and lift from WAA combined at times, there could be periods of
heavy snow. Modals are also indicating the possibility of enhanced
frontogenetical lift over the far southeastern Panhandle and
northern Rolling Plains which could result in greater amounts of
snow in these areas. As it is rather cold, the liquid content will
be low. This low liquid content will allow for the formation of very
dry snow, which will blow around easily and cause drifts. Some areas
may see drifts of up to 4 feet. Blowing snow will also reduce
visibility at times.
Snow should begin to reduce in intensity early Monday morning,
starting from northwest to southeast. We are expecting 4-8 inches
for much of the area and could see 12" in any enhanced bands of
snow. More cold air will move into the FA with this system bringing
wind chill values to the area of -15 to -25 F for tonight through
Monday afternoon. With the concerns for extreme cold and significant
snow accumulation and drifting, we have issued a Winter Storm
Warning and Wind Chill Warning for the area. The Winter Storm
Warning will be in effect from 9 pm tonight (Saturday) until 6 am
Monday and the Wind Chill Warning will be in effect from 6 am Sunday
until noon on Monday.
Northwest flow aloft will develop in the wake of the departing storm
system. With a healthy snowpack in place temperatures will be quite
cold again Monday night into Tuesday morning with temperatures
ranging from 0-5 degrees above zero. Our next weather system will
approach the region Tuesday morning as a trough sharpens to our
west. Confidence with this system continues to remain on the low
side especially since this system is still out over the Bering Sea
at this time. Currently appears that the best upper level dynamics
would favor the Panhandle but we will continue to monitor this storm
system. As things currently sit, at least some additional snowfall
will be possible for the area with amounts generally below 4". This
troughing, combined with the snowpack and persistent cloud cover
will keep temperatures below guidance (and below freezing) for much
of the upcoming week. As the upper level trough finally moves east
of the area on Thursday temperatures may approach or exceed freezing
however this is dependent on the snowpack that remains across the
area. It does appear that moisture will be scattered out in the wake
of this system so sunny skies may finally return to the region for
Thursday afternoon. If the Tuesday into Wednesday snow event is
heavier than currently expected then temperatures may have to be
kept even lower as this snow pack would keep temperatures colder.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
Wind Chill Warning from 6 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
935 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021
Cold air will continue to filter southwest into the Mid-Atlantic
region from the northeastern U.S. tonight. Meanwhile, a moist
southwest flow aloft and a series of disturbances will bring periods
of precipitation across the region and into the cold, below freezing
air, mainly in the form of freezing rain and sleet over the next few
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 925 PM EST Saturday...
Winter Storm Warning will be downgraded to a Winter Weather
Advisory. Ice Storm Warning remains in effect through noon
Ice accumulations on trees and power lines has lead to power
outages and tree damage. Tree and power lines were blocking
roads and the ice is also making sidewalks and roadways slick
and treacherous. Since there were still significant impacts the
Ice Storm Warning will stand as is.
Main area of precipitation had moved east of southwest Virginia
and northwest North Carolina. Fog and freezing fog will fill in
overnight. Some pockets of drizzle and freezing drizzle are
expected. Do not anticipate much more ice accretion but will
highlight hazardous travel due to ice, downed trees and power
lines, power outages and reduced visibilities. Higher elevations
will have the greatest potential for dense fog tonight.
Another round of precipitation is expected Sunday as low
pressure slides by to our southeast. Southside VA and the VA/NC
piedmonts will see the best chance for rain Sunday
afternoon/evening. while in the north, wintry weather may be
possible for the higher elevations and northern locations from
Greenbrier county WV through the Alleghany Highlands of
Virginia. High temperatures Sunday will vary from the lower 30s
in the northwest mountains to near 40 along the southern Blue
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday...
Confidence is high for wet weather to continue with another low
pressure system expected during Monday night and Tuesday.
A broad upper level trough will span across the central Plains
throughout this forecast period, while an upper level ridge sits
off the East Coast. The resulting flow will continue to pump
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward toward the Mid
Atlantic. As one low pressure system traverses along the
Southeast coast on Sunday night, another system should organize
over the southern Plains. Chances of a light wintry mix may
persist along the Interstate 64 corridor during Sunday night,
but other locations should remain as chances of rain.
There may be a small pause in the precipitation by early
Monday, but the next low pressure system from the southern
Plains will turn northward toward the Appalachian Mountains on
Monday night. Because the center of low pressure will cross
overhead, milder air will cause the precipitation to fall as
just rain. The ECMWF is notably wetter than the other models in
terms of QPF, and the moisture shield is also much broader
across the eastern United States than other model guidance. The
low pressure system will exit by Tuesday although some upslope
snow showers may linger a few hours longer along the higher
elevations of southeast West Virginia. High pressure should
bring drier air on Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday...
Confidence is rising for another low pressure system to bring
more precipitation during Wednesday night through Thursday
High pressure will wedge southward along the eastern slopes of
the Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the next
low pressure system should organize over the lower Mississippi
River Valley. It will head northward toward the Mid Atlantic by
Wednesday night. The fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
should persist through Thursday and Thursday night before the
cold front from this low pressure system eventually shoves the
moisture toward the East Coast. Because of the cool wedge, there
may again be mixed precipitation types during Wednesday night
into Thursday morning before temperatures recover above freezing
by Thursday afternoon. However, there are still uncertainties
in QPF and the strength of this cool wedge among the models, so
nothing more specific can be said quite yet.
Friday could bring a gusty northwest flow behind the departing
cold front along with a chance of upslope mountain snow
showers across southeast West Virginia. The upper level pattern
should finally flatten and become more zonal as high pressure
builds overhead later on Friday night. Saturday appears dry with
high pressure in control to wrap up this very active and wet
week. Whether things become far more tranquil in the coming
weeks to end this relentless wet trend is still to be
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 930 PM EST Saturday...
Poor flying conditions tonight and Sunday with widespread LIFR
to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility due to fog and
drizzle/freezing fog and freezing drizzle. Aircraft parked
outdoors could have some amount of icing on them, as much as a
1/4 to 1/2 inch between the area of KLYH-KDAN. visibilities will
improve Sunday afternoon but more winter precipitation will be
spreading across southern Virginia and northern North Carolina.
Above average confidence for ceilings, wind and weather.
Average confidence for visibility.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Weather pattern is forecast to remain unsettled well into next
week with increasing threat for wintry precipitation as Arctic
air surges further southeast into the eastern United States.
Generally MVFR or worse conditions expected through the entire
The KFCX radar will be down through about Thursday, February 18
for the replacement of a generator as well as other electrical
components powering the facility. In addition, the Richlands
NOAA weather radio broadcast will be off the air through at
least Tuesday, February 16 due to phone line problems.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for VAZ010>020-
Ice Storm Warning until noon EST Sunday for VAZ046-047-059.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NCZ001>006-
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for WVZ042>044-