Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/14/21

Area Forecast Discussion - Corrected
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
543 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 .AVIATION... MVFR ceilings are continue at KPVW and KLBB early this evening with KCDS seeing VFR conditions. Ceilings will slowly drop tonight to MVFR/IFR at all three terminals as a storm system approaches the region. Light snow may begin as early as 06z at the area terminals with heavier snow beginning to fall a few hours before sunrise. Breezy northeasterly winds will create blowing snow tomorrow thus visibility issues will also occur. Lastly, aircraft icing remains an issue through this TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021/ SHORT TERM... The system that brought some moisture and light snow to our area, and a wintry mix to areas to our south, continues to move east across northern Mexico into southern Texas. The upper-level trough that will be the main player in the upcoming event is currently entering the four corners region. This trough will deepen and continue eastward towards the region. A surface high will dip into central Texas, allowing for moist isentropic upglide ahead of the incoming trough. Along with the lift from the isentropic upglide, upper-level divergence will allow for the potential for light snow to begin this evening ahead of the front. As the upper trough and associated front nears, lift over the area will increase. With progged sounding indicating much of the saturated column within the Dendritic Growth Zone(DGZ), frontal lift, and lift from WAA combined at times, there could be periods of heavy snow. Modals are also indicating the possibility of enhanced frontogenetical lift over the far southeastern Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains which could result in greater amounts of snow in these areas. As it is rather cold, the liquid content will be low. This low liquid content will allow for the formation of very dry snow, which will blow around easily and cause drifts. Some areas may see drifts of up to 4 feet. Blowing snow will also reduce visibility at times. Snow should begin to reduce in intensity early Monday morning, starting from northwest to southeast. We are expecting 4-8 inches for much of the area and could see 12" in any enhanced bands of snow. More cold air will move into the FA with this system bringing wind chill values to the area of -15 to -25 F for tonight through Monday afternoon. With the concerns for extreme cold and significant snow accumulation and drifting, we have issued a Winter Storm Warning and Wind Chill Warning for the area. The Winter Storm Warning will be in effect from 9 pm tonight (Saturday) until 6 am Monday and the Wind Chill Warning will be in effect from 6 am Sunday until noon on Monday. Kendrick LONG TERM... Northwest flow aloft will develop in the wake of the departing storm system. With a healthy snowpack in place temperatures will be quite cold again Monday night into Tuesday morning with temperatures ranging from 0-5 degrees above zero. Our next weather system will approach the region Tuesday morning as a trough sharpens to our west. Confidence with this system continues to remain on the low side especially since this system is still out over the Bering Sea at this time. Currently appears that the best upper level dynamics would favor the Panhandle but we will continue to monitor this storm system. As things currently sit, at least some additional snowfall will be possible for the area with amounts generally below 4". This troughing, combined with the snowpack and persistent cloud cover will keep temperatures below guidance (and below freezing) for much of the upcoming week. As the upper level trough finally moves east of the area on Thursday temperatures may approach or exceed freezing however this is dependent on the snowpack that remains across the area. It does appear that moisture will be scattered out in the wake of this system so sunny skies may finally return to the region for Thursday afternoon. If the Tuesday into Wednesday snow event is heavier than currently expected then temperatures may have to be kept even lower as this snow pack would keep temperatures colder. /WCI && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ021>044. Wind Chill Warning from 6 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for TXZ021>044. && $$ 99/99/28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
935 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cold air will continue to filter southwest into the Mid-Atlantic region from the northeastern U.S. tonight. Meanwhile, a moist southwest flow aloft and a series of disturbances will bring periods of precipitation across the region and into the cold, below freezing air, mainly in the form of freezing rain and sleet over the next few days. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 925 PM EST Saturday... Winter Storm Warning will be downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory. Ice Storm Warning remains in effect through noon Sunday. Ice accumulations on trees and power lines has lead to power outages and tree damage. Tree and power lines were blocking roads and the ice is also making sidewalks and roadways slick and treacherous. Since there were still significant impacts the Ice Storm Warning will stand as is. Main area of precipitation had moved east of southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina. Fog and freezing fog will fill in overnight. Some pockets of drizzle and freezing drizzle are expected. Do not anticipate much more ice accretion but will highlight hazardous travel due to ice, downed trees and power lines, power outages and reduced visibilities. Higher elevations will have the greatest potential for dense fog tonight. Another round of precipitation is expected Sunday as low pressure slides by to our southeast. Southside VA and the VA/NC piedmonts will see the best chance for rain Sunday afternoon/evening. while in the north, wintry weather may be possible for the higher elevations and northern locations from Greenbrier county WV through the Alleghany Highlands of Virginia. High temperatures Sunday will vary from the lower 30s in the northwest mountains to near 40 along the southern Blue Ridge mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM EST Saturday... Confidence is high for wet weather to continue with another low pressure system expected during Monday night and Tuesday. A broad upper level trough will span across the central Plains throughout this forecast period, while an upper level ridge sits off the East Coast. The resulting flow will continue to pump moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward toward the Mid Atlantic. As one low pressure system traverses along the Southeast coast on Sunday night, another system should organize over the southern Plains. Chances of a light wintry mix may persist along the Interstate 64 corridor during Sunday night, but other locations should remain as chances of rain. There may be a small pause in the precipitation by early Monday, but the next low pressure system from the southern Plains will turn northward toward the Appalachian Mountains on Monday night. Because the center of low pressure will cross overhead, milder air will cause the precipitation to fall as just rain. The ECMWF is notably wetter than the other models in terms of QPF, and the moisture shield is also much broader across the eastern United States than other model guidance. The low pressure system will exit by Tuesday although some upslope snow showers may linger a few hours longer along the higher elevations of southeast West Virginia. High pressure should bring drier air on Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Saturday... Confidence is rising for another low pressure system to bring more precipitation during Wednesday night through Thursday night. High pressure will wedge southward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the next low pressure system should organize over the lower Mississippi River Valley. It will head northward toward the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday night. The fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico should persist through Thursday and Thursday night before the cold front from this low pressure system eventually shoves the moisture toward the East Coast. Because of the cool wedge, there may again be mixed precipitation types during Wednesday night into Thursday morning before temperatures recover above freezing by Thursday afternoon. However, there are still uncertainties in QPF and the strength of this cool wedge among the models, so nothing more specific can be said quite yet. Friday could bring a gusty northwest flow behind the departing cold front along with a chance of upslope mountain snow showers across southeast West Virginia. The upper level pattern should finally flatten and become more zonal as high pressure builds overhead later on Friday night. Saturday appears dry with high pressure in control to wrap up this very active and wet week. Whether things become far more tranquil in the coming weeks to end this relentless wet trend is still to be determined. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 930 PM EST Saturday... Poor flying conditions tonight and Sunday with widespread LIFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility due to fog and drizzle/freezing fog and freezing drizzle. Aircraft parked outdoors could have some amount of icing on them, as much as a 1/4 to 1/2 inch between the area of KLYH-KDAN. visibilities will improve Sunday afternoon but more winter precipitation will be spreading across southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. Above average confidence for ceilings, wind and weather. Average confidence for visibility. Extended Aviation Discussion... Weather pattern is forecast to remain unsettled well into next week with increasing threat for wintry precipitation as Arctic air surges further southeast into the eastern United States. Generally MVFR or worse conditions expected through the entire period. && .EQUIPMENT... The KFCX radar will be down through about Thursday, February 18 for the replacement of a generator as well as other electrical components powering the facility. In addition, the Richlands NOAA weather radio broadcast will be off the air through at least Tuesday, February 16 due to phone line problems. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for VAZ010>020- 022>024-032>035-043>045-058. Ice Storm Warning until noon EST Sunday for VAZ046-047-059. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NCZ001>006- 018>020. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for WVZ042>044- 507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK NEAR TERM...AMS/KK SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...KK/SH EQUIPMENT...PW