Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 01/03/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1048 AM MST Sat Jan 2 2021 .DISCUSSION... 1030AM UPDATE: Rain has exited Valley county allowing the advisory to be cancelled. However, reports from Roosevelt county indicated that rain is forming ice on roads and warming trends for ground temperatures do not appear to be rising fast enough. Therefore, the advisory has been extended for an additional 2 hours to try to capture the remaining impacts on the backend of this event. GAH 930AM UPDATE: A Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain has been issued across the hi-line. With radar trends intensifying and frozen ground across the east have placed it out till Noon. Wind gusts in southwest Phillips are also up indicated that winds aloft are very strong behind the front. GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: A weak disturbance is moving across Montana this morning. Radar echos to the west indicate showers are already moving into the area but observations are hinting that it is too dry for precipitation to reach the surface. As showers persist over the next several hours, precipitation may eventually reach the ground and where some locations may still be near freezing, roads could have patches of black ice until at least after the sun has been up and downsloping winds kick the temperatures up an extra notch. QPF spread in the models remain, keeping confidence low but with a dry boundary layer to begin with, QPF is expecting to be light, around a trace to a couple hundredths. Showers should end by the evening. Temperatures were busted yesterday as brief compressional heating in the late afternoon boosted the high in Glasgow to the mid 40s. Warm westerly winds and downsloping is expected to be stronger this weekend, so using a blend of the warmest temperature models, highs are expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s across the area. Current observations in the west are already quite warm and the sounding this morning has temperatures in the mid to upper 40s aloft. That being said, it will be possible for efficient mixing and another temperature bust each day this weekend. Glasgow Airport could even break the previous record of 50 on Sunday. Another cold front on the heels of the first disturbance will bring stronger winds through Central and Eastern Montana Sunday afternoon. Most models have wind speeds at 850mb at 50 to 60 kts in areas where lapse rates are around 7-8 C/km, particularly along the western zones and higher terrain such as the Little Rockies. A High Wind Warning has been issued for southwest Phillips county. While confidence is high for gusty winds throughout the area, the magnitude is too marginal to expand the warning at this time. A progressive weather pattern for next week with a series of ridges and troughs is expected. It will resemble recent activity where each trough is fairly dry and unseasonably warm temperatures prevail, although not as warm as what is expected this weekend. Northeastern Montana is roughly 15 to 30 degrees above normal and relatively dry for this time of year. Looking into the extended, warm and dry weather is expecting to hang around for another couple weeks. Roxy && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 1730Z FLIGHT CAT: VFR DISCUSSION: A cold front will move through the area this morning. ICE: Light, scattered precipitation will be possible and with the ground near freezing, any rain that reaches the surface could freeze on contact causing increased breaking distance on landing. Temperatures will warm enough in the afternoon for the FREEZING RAIN threat to diminish. This hazard could impact KOLF, KSDY, and KGDV. LLWS: Low level wind shear will become a problem as the cold front passes through the area. Strong winds above may not be able to reach the surface initially. This will create a strong speed shear difference for aircraft approaches. This threat will last through the whole of the cycle. WIND: West to southwest at 5 to 15 kts this morning. Veering west and increasing to 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 25 this afternoon. Backing to the southwest and decreasing 15 kts or less overnight. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Southwest Phillips. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for Daniels...Eastern Roosevelt...Sheridan...Western Roosevelt. && $$