Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/03/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
703 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Low Pressure over New England has moved offshore today. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure shifted east and is over the Midwest. As high pressure edges into the region through the weekend, warm and muggy conditions will continue with temperatures near or just above normal. Coverage of thunderstorms will gradually increase from isolated Friday to scattered over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 105 PM EDT Thursday... The region will be in between a low off the New England coast and an upper level ridge over the Midwest by tonight. For the immediate area, a weak surface ridge will keep the area relatively stable with very little chances for an afternoon thunderstorm. A few of the convective models are showing some weak convergence along the Blue Ridge this afternoon. With the help of diurnal heating, there may be a few brief showers late this afternoon, then decaying in the evening. High temperatures will range in the 80s west of the Blue Ridge to low 90s east. Almost a similar setup for Friday as compared to today with the area remaining in between systems. However, we will start to transition to becoming more influenced by the upper ridge rather than the upper low. With heights increasing aloft, temperatures Friday will be a degree or two warmer than today. Can not rule out a brief afternoon shower due to heating and/or orographical influences. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 105 PM EDT Thursday... The upper ridge over the Midwest Saturday morning will slowly build east into Sunday night. The weak flow aloft will combine with heating, low level convergence and orographic lift to generate diurnal convection with the best opportunity across the higher terrain. High temperatures on Independence Day will range from the mid 70s in the mountains to the lower 90s in the piedmont. Most of the convection will end in time for the fireworks displays. Saturday night will be mild and humid with low temperatures from the lower 60s in the mountains to the lower 60s in the piedmont. The air will become more humid as we approach Sunday. The coverage of storms will increase on Sunday afternoon and evening. This is supported on the GFS and ECMWF. High temperatures on Sunday will vary from the upper 70s in the west to around 90 degrees in the southeast. The good news is that most of the scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms forced by diurnal heating will diminish after sunset. Low temperatures Sunday night will generally be from the upper 50s in the mountains to around 70 degrees in the piedmont. Medium confidence in short term forecast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Thursday... The operational models and ensemble means maintain good agreement and consistency for the large scale pattern evolution. The Northeast U.S. mean trough should give way to increasingly progressive nearly zonal flow. The upper ridge with its eastern edge over us will grow stagnant and not move much through the midweek. Surface low will form Monday morning around the Florida panhandle and lift northeast to off the Carolinas coast Tuesday. Then, the low pressure center heads out into the Atlantic ocean Wednesday into Friday. The medium range models continue to have differences on placement and timing of the low. Normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected during the long range. High temperatures will generally be from The upper 70s in the mountains to the lower 90s east of the Blue Ridge. Low temperatures will be mild with readings from the lower 60s in the west to the lower 70s in the east. Medium confidence in long term forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 700 PM EDT Thursday... Expect mainly VFR conditions at TAF sites through the forecast period with any lingering isolated showers dissipating around sundown. A repeat of valley fog west of the Blue Ridge seems like a good bet, but low confidence in how much the airfields at KLWB and KBCB will be affected so will tempo these 2 sites to IFR toward daybreak without a predominate obvis. Believe there was enough drying today to keep fog out of other TAF sites. May cook up a few isolated showers again tomorrow but with expected sparse coverage will not need any vicinity mentions. Winds will be light through the period with no impact to aircraft operations. Extended Aviation Discussion... The threat for scattered afternoon and evening pulse thunderstorms increases this weekend and continues into early next week as moisture and warm temperatures become more widespread. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...MBS/RCS