Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/23/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
629 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 .AVIATION... VFR conditions in place at all three TAF sites. Developing line of storms will move across all TAF sites tonight into early Tuesday morning. Storms will be capable of damaging wind speeds when they move over the TAF sites and recommend aircraft be secured for possible severe thunderstorm wind speeds. Timing does remain a bit uncertain however and expect amendments as storms are approaching TAF sites to provide better window for impacts. After storms pass, MVFR ceilings will be possible towards sunrise Tuesday through mid Tuesday morning. Any ceilings will lift by late morning with VFR conditions expected through Tuesday afternoon all three TAF sites. Another round of storms may try to develop just beyond the end of this TAF cycle but would mainly impact KLBB and KPVW at this time. Jordan && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 143 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020/ SHORT TERM... Thunderstorms expected to initiate across northeastern New Mexico possibly as far south as south/west of Clovis. Good model agreement in these storms congealing into an MCS that then moves in a general southeastward direction through the night across much of the forecast area as environment ahead of the system will be favorable, i.e., good low level instability, healthy low level theta-e advection on increasing southeasterly low level flow, and a steering flow that brings storm directly into this good air mass. As a result will increase precip chances through the night. Tuesday`s forecast depends to a large degree on the above scenario working out. Large scale MCS and associated cold pool moving through the forecast area should stabilize the air mass in place across the forecast area with a northerly component to the surface flow during the first half of the day. Veering winds toward east and southeast are expected to result in another round of thunderstorms developing across eastern New Mexico during the afternoon, some of which might bleed over into the forecast area before 00Z. Temperatures are also expected to be a bit on the "cool" side, similar to much of the area today, with highs just a touch above MOS guidance currently favored. LONG TERM... The upper-level trough that caused severe weather over the central and southern plains is currently moving northeast and is expected to setup over northeast CONUS through the end of the week. A ridge over southwest CONUS will dominate over that area, this will maintain NW flow aloft through the week across west Texas. Guidance is keeping most of the area Tuesday evening dry, except for the western portion of the CWA due to the potential for storms to move out of New Mexico. Though, with high low-level dewpoints and NW flow aloft, precipitation is not completely out of the question farther to the east. As the ridge axis moves to the east-southeast on Wednesday, the upper-level flow will turn more northerly, and convection should be limited to New Mexico and the western part of the CWA. This weekend, the ridge begins to break down as a trough moves over SW CONUS. This is likely to bring some precipitation to the region; though, guidance currently keeps it north of the area. Southerly to southeasterly winds will keep a decent stream of moisture over the area, which will keep the area warm and humid. Kendrick && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 14