Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/10/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR conditions will prevail through the period with southerly flow expected through this evening, then northerly flow after a weak front moves through the region tonight. Timing of the FROPA is around 3z to 4z for CLL, then about 7z to 8z for IAH, then around 9z to 10z along the coast. The FROPA will bring CIGS of three to five thousand feet with the FROPA along with isolated to scattered showers. Coverage of the showers will be higher HOU southward. Skies will be mostly clear through the day tomorrow with breezy northerly winds. Fowler && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 325 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020/... .SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday night]... After a scorcher of a day, the approach and passage of a dry line boundary (pre-frontal trof) may be the impetus to evening into early Wednesday morning pre-dawn shower and thunderstorm activity. Timing is key as to whether any convection that blossoms does evolve into a strong or severe threat. Discrete cells forming due to lift above a weakened 7-925H regional cap (noted on earlier local ACARS soundings) will go up quick if they can tap into near 7 deg C/km lapse rate mid layer air. The potential is all there with super CAPE in the 3-3.5k range / neg 12 L.I.`s that indicate, if the parcel can lifted into the mid levels during peak heating within a near 2 inch northern county pwat air mass, there is a mentionable threat for strong to severe storm evolution. The backing synoptic front (southern periphery of the northwestern Texas high) is forecast to catch up with the leading pre-frontal trof/dry line near the coast tomorrow morning around sunrise. Both the CAMS and global NWP solutions produce light overnight central and coastal county QPF in the vicinity of the front. Forecast calls for lower end chance PoPs for mainly showers/isolated storms from around the city south and east through the dawn hour. Dry air advection will whisk away resident 70-ish F dew point air and replace it with 50-ish dew point air. Thus, today`s hot and muggy Houston area weather will feel more and dry over the next several days or until the flow comes back around to onshore introducing Gulf air later this week or early next week. The overall mid week theme will be for more pleasant, near to slightly below normal morning temperature trends. Days will warm to near to slightly above normal upper 80s to lower 90s...lower humidity will keep these late spring season heat indices in check. 31 .LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]... Should be a fairly dry/quiet period for much of this period as light N/NE winds prevail. While daytime highs will be at/near normal (low- er 90s)...overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 60s (for inland locations) should be a pleasant respite. As the upper ridge to the W flattens and the surface high shifts to the NE, we`ll have to keep a closer eye for increasing moistures/weak disturbances moving in from the east (across the northern Gulf) late in the weekend (mainly Sun/ early Mon). However, not seeing a great deal of model consensus with this idea, so will keep POPs mostly dry for this time frame. 41 .MARINE... Winds/seas have decreased a bit this afternoon and did let the SCEC drop as previously scheduled. The next cold front/dry line looks to be on track to move off the coast overnight. Caution flags may go up once again tomorrow night as the dry N/NE winds mix down. Otherwise this light/moderate offshore flow is progged to remain in place over our marine waters until late in the upcoming weekend when the upper flow becomes more zonal and the surface high shifts to the NE U.S.. The return of isolated activity over the coastal waters could occur by late Sun into Mon if we do get the surge of deeper moisture (and a weak disturbance from the E) as hinted at by some of the models. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 66 91 63 93 65 / 20 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 72 92 67 93 70 / 40 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 78 89 76 90 76 / 40 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton. High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula. GM...None. && $$