Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/01/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
908 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 908 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 Shower activity across northeast Colorado is almost over for the evening, but a couple more showers are still moving out of the mountains. Activity should be completely dissipated by midnight, with decreasing clouds after that. Changes to the evening forecast package have been minimal. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 Convection has started over the higher terrain with upper flow pushing storms to the east/northeast. Dewpoints are sitting slightly lower than yesterday with values in the mid to upper 40s with low 50s across the far northeastern plains counties. Current ACARS soundings show less of a CAP in place at this time than yesterday so development will be easier than yesterday. However, models continue to indicate a drier low level with lower PW values overall. Model soundings continue to indicate high DCAPE values that would bring higher chances of strong gusty winds with a few isolated strong storms possible. Storms will push eastward through the evening before dissipating after midnight. High cloud and downsloping will allow for more mild overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. For Monday, the ridge continues to break down and push eastward as an upper trough deepens offshore of CA. Towards the surface a strong lee side trough will build through the day maintaining a weak easterly flow across the plains. This will help to create some convergence against the foothills with increasing moisture and lift provided by a disorganized disturbance embedded in southwest flow aloft. Convection will once again start over the higher terrain with some cells making their way onto the plains into the evening hours. CAPE values range from 400 to 1200 j/kg with the higher values further south. PW values continue to decrease with the main threats from storms being gusty winds, light to moderate rain and lightning with some possibly producing small hail. Temperatures will continue to increase with low-90s being a high possibility for the Denver Metro and surrounding areas. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 Much of the upcoming week will be characterized by temperatures well above normal for this time of year, and fairly typical rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of the showers will remain over the mountains and adjacent plains with only isolated coverage at best further east on the plains. Temperatures through the week will be in the upper 80s to around 90 on the plains and 60s and 70s in the mountains. For Tuesday, broad high pressure aloft will be over the central and southern plains states with a light southwest flow aloft over Colorado. 700mb temperatures will remain close to +14c with little change in temperatures. Moisture mainly in the middle and upper levels with rather dry low levels. Expect mainly brief rain and gusty winds with the storms. Flow is weak aloft with weak shear profile so severe storms not expected. By Late Tuesday and Wednesday the flow aloft will shift more westerly and increase a bit as fast moving trof will speed across the northern high plains states. There will be a weak front associated with this trof which will move through the plains late Tuesday night. However, looks like only a few degrees cooling at best with little impact on Colorado weather. The flow aloft is stronger Wednesday but moisture looks on the scanty side. Similar situation on Thursday then a possibly better chance of showers by later Friday as the upper low which had been off Southern California coast pushes inland. Based on the GFS, the low will rapidly weaken and lift northeast towards Colorado late Friday. Expect higher coverage of storms with this feature if GFS timing is correct. However, European and Canadian solutions are much slower ejecting the low until Saturday which could mean a delay of moisture push and showers until Saturday afternoon/evening. Will at least have scattered pops for both Friday and Saturday for now. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 908 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 Wind shifts from southerly to northeasterly should be the primary aviation impacts overnight. Winds are currently out of the south- southwest, but radar data is showing an outflow boundary moving in from the northeast which should arrive before 10 pm. After a couple hours of northeast winds, drainage southerlies should return overnight. Mid and high level clouds will continue through much of the night, but mostly clear skies should return by sunrise. Monday will be a repeat of today, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected to develop after 3 pm. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Dankers SHORT TERM...Bowen LONG TERM...Entrekin AVIATION...Dankers