Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/07/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
659 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ Occasional light rain will continue for the next few hours generally along the I-20 corridor as a weak shortwave passes overhead. Rainfall amounts will range from only a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Precipitation should exit to the east by midnight. Patchy fog and drizzle will be a good possibility overnight for areas east of I-35 where temperature/dewpoint spreads will approach zero by daybreak Tuesday. There is a chance that fog may develop farther west where this afternoon`s high temperatures remained a few degrees below forecast values, so will need monitor T/Td trends area-wide later this evening and overnight. Otherwise a mix of low and mid level clouds is expected with low temperatures in the lower and mid 60s. For Tuesday, the combination of an upper ridge, veered surface winds and the return of sunshine will allow afternoon temperatures to soar into the 80s. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 307 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020/ /Tuesday Night onward/ The middle portion of the week will feature warm and dry weather as upper-level ridging persists over the region. The upper-level ridge will be aided by compressional, downslope warming from modest southwesterly flow at the surface. Highs on Wednesday may approach 90 F in parts of the CWA, which is about 15 degrees above normal for early April. Right now, the records of 93 F at both DFW and Waco appear safe, but we could get close. Should we hit 90 F, it would be the first 90-degree day at DFW since October 10, and the first at Waco since October 19. The warm weather will be short-lived however, as a strong cold front is poised to move through on Thursday. The cold front should hit our northwestern counties a little after midnight Thursday, reach the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area during the early morning hours, and the Killeen/Temple/Waco area by late morning. Rain chances will increase behind the frontal passage as southwesterly flow in the mid levels of the troposphere transports warm, moist Pacific air up and over the shallow continental polar air mass. Since temperatures will be in the 60s and dewpoints in the 40s/50s, severe weather is not expected. Rain rates don`t look to be terribly impressive either. Just more, dreary, cool rain. For the end of the week and the weekend, the forecast gets quite uncertain. Significant disagreement exists between the ECMWF and GFS with regards to the major synoptic-level details. As an aside, there are theories that model performance may actually be suffering a bit due to a sharp decrease in aircraft observations. Not tremendously, but perhaps in a measurable amount. Again, this is just a theory. This is potentially relevant right now however, as the key synoptic feature that will impact us later this week, an upper-level low off the coast of California, has not yet moved into the U.S. upper-air network. The good news is that it should move onshore during the next 24 hours, which should help with predictability over the next day or two. That said, the largest camp of model solutions seems to be that which is supported by the deterministic ECMWF and the majority of the GFS Ensemble Forecast System members. This solution calls for a slower eastward translation of the upper-level low, with this low also remaining closed off. This is opposed to the deterministic GFS which opens up the low and moves it through the Southern Plains as early as Friday. It`s also worth noting that the GFS tends to have a bias in quickly opening and moving out closed upper-level lows. With all of this being considered, opted to lean closer to the ECMWF solution. What this means for us during the later parts of the week is probably a drier Friday/early Saturday, with precipitation chances increasing late Saturday and into Sunday morning. Rain chances would decrease Sunday afternoon as the upper-level low moves off to our east. Still, because of the larger than usual uncertainty, opted to keep chance PoPs in the forecast from Friday through Saturday night. These PoPs will probably be able to be refined in the coming days however, as confidence in the forecast increases. With respect to the severe weather potential, temperatures look to be a little below normal into the weekend. Additionally, dewpoints will be depressed following Thursday`s cold front passage. These two factors should keep instability on the lower side, minimizing the severe weather potential. Godwin && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Light precipitation associated with a weak disturbance aloft will continue periodically in the DFW Metroplex for the next few hours. This is allowing a scattered stratus layer to occasionally produce MVFR cigs. Conditions will improve for a brief period later this evening as light rain exits to the east, but MVFR will likely return after 06Z as gulf moisture surges northward across the area. Conditions will return to VFR by midday Tuesday and continue through the end of the forecast period. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 87 66 89 60 / 10 10 0 10 20 Waco 66 85 68 89 65 / 20 10 0 10 20 Paris 64 82 65 85 59 / 30 20 0 10 20 Denton 64 86 63 88 58 / 10 10 0 10 20 McKinney 63 86 65 88 59 / 20 10 0 10 20 Dallas 66 87 67 89 60 / 10 10 0 10 20 Terrell 64 84 66 88 61 / 20 10 0 10 20 Corsicana 66 85 68 87 65 / 20 20 0 10 20 Temple 64 86 68 88 65 / 10 20 0 10 20 Mineral Wells 60 88 63 88 58 / 10 10 0 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 30/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
736 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 .UPDATE... The forecast remains on track through the period with little to no changes made. One minor change was adding in some showers and lightning over parts of southwest Montana this evening. -TP && .SYNOPSIS... A few showers will move through the region tonight, while another mild day is expected in many areas on Tuesday. A weak cold front slides into North Central MT Tuesday night, producing a few light snow showers. Expect drier conditions on Thursday, while a stronger cold front, along with the potential for widespread rain and snow moves into the region this weekend. && .AVIATION... Updated 535 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 (07/00Z TAF Period) Expect VFR conditions to prevail for most of our airfields, with the exception of KWYS which will continue to fluctuate between VFR and MVFR condition through tomorrow morning. Mountain obscurations are forecast, especially in the southwest. Expect some aircraft icing impacts. LLWS conditions are forecast overnight tonight for KLWT. Expect the associated turbulence. -TP && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020/ Tonight through Friday...A few light showers/isolated thunderstorms will move through the region this evening, as an upper level disturbance exits the area. On Tuesday, expect a mild day before the next weak cold front slides southward into North Central MT on Tuesday night. Some upslope light snow could develop along the front range of the Rockies and across Central MT. Overall, snow accumulations will generally remain under an inch with this system. Slightly cooler conditions will prevail on Wednesday behind the front, while warmer temperatures move back into the region on Thursday, as shortwave ridging resides over the region. On Friday, the flow aloft will start to shift to the northwest, as the next main storm system/showers starts to approach the region by late in the day. Brusda Previous 4 AM Extended discussion... Although there remain differences in timing, the longer range model solutions are indicating the western ridge will collapse as a stronger weather system drops through western Canada toward the Northern Rockies. Confidence is moving higher that temperatures will fall back below average by Saturday, along with a period of rain changing to snow. Timing will help influence temperatures and snow accumulations, but early indications support 6-12 inches for the higher elevations and 1-3 inches for the North-central plains. Expect minor impacts to travel for next weekend, but with potentially moderate to high impacts on newborn livestock due to the wet and colder conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 34 56 25 45 / 0 0 50 0 CTB 32 50 23 42 / 0 0 50 0 HLN 34 58 27 52 / 0 0 10 0 BZN 31 59 29 52 / 20 0 0 0 WYS 26 46 20 49 / 40 10 0 0 DLN 31 55 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 30 54 25 43 / 0 0 50 0 LWT 30 54 22 40 / 0 0 40 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$