Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/04/20

National Weather Service Hastings NE
627 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 ...Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 208 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Aloft: Low-amplitude W-WNW flow was over the NEB/KS per aircraft wind data and RAP tropopause animations. A wk shrtwv trof was over MT and sliding SE. This trof will rapidly cross SD/NEB this eve followed by slightly anticyclonic WNW flow into tomorrow. Surface: Wk 1014 mb high pres was along the KS/OK stateline. This high will be squeezed by a wk low that will form near YKN and then move into IL tonight. A developing cool front associated with this low will cross the CWA this eve. Anticyclogenesis will then occur over the Cntrl Plns tomorrow with return flow developing in tandem with low pres moving acrs Srn Canada. Rest of this afternoon: Mostly sunny...warm and breezy. Highs in the low-mid 60s will occur 4-5 PM. Tonight: Mostly clear. There will be a few clds around early that could result in some sprinkles here and there. After 10 PM... clear. Lows within a cpl degs of 30F. Wed: Sunny. Becoming breezy after 18Z...espcly N and W of HSI with G25-30 kt will be common. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 208 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Pattern: No change in the main theme since mid Nov. Lots of W-E flow off the Pac. Low amplitude will occasionally increase to moderate amplitude. Aloft: The longwaves will amplify a bit Thu-Sat...and then deamplify heading into early next week. The flow over NEB/KS will be NW Thu...behind a deepening shrtwv trof moving into the Ern USA. The moderate-amplitude ridge over the Wrn USA will cont E and crest over the Plns Fri eve. Behind it...WSW flow will prevail Sat-Sun. A shrtwv trof that originates off CA will move thru the Desert SW and cross the Cntrl/Srn Plns Mon AM. Zonal flow will occur in its wake Tue. Surface: 1030 mb high pres will emerge onto the Plns Thu and cont to strengthen as it gradually shifts into the MS Vly Fri and into the SE USA this wknd. As the high moves away...breezy/very warm return flow will remain over NEB/KS until a Pac cool front moves thru Sun night. Nrn Plns high pres will then build in Mon- Tue. Temps: Way warmer than normal with a warming trend thru Sun...then temps return back to near normal Mon-Tue. Sat-Sun cont to trend warmer and we`re now looking at 2 days with widespread low-mid 70s. Precip: Dry until the frontal passage Sun night. Rain appears likely Sun night into Mon. The ptype routine has some snow N and W of the Tri-Cities...but that is based purely on sfc temps and our lows are probably too chilly. Am expecting this to be all rain. Let the NBM thunder probs dictate its inclusion. So there is now a slight chance of thunder Sun eve. Both the GFS and EC have 50F dwpts surging into the SE CWA to meet the front. That should create sufficient/weak instability to support some thunder. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday) Issued at 626 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through the period with clear skies the vast majority of the time, although these first few hours will feature a fairly solid mid-level cloud deck (ceiling around 10K ft.) along with the possibility of a few brief sprinkles. That leaves winds as the main aviation issue, both at the surface and aloft, as much of tonight will likely feature at least marginal low level wind shear (LLWS). Read on for more wind-specific details... Surface winds: Generally speaking, most of the night and Wednesday morning will feature a westerly to west-northwesterly breeze sustained in the 8-12KT range, although occasional gusts to 20+KT cannot be ruled out (especially these first few hours). A more notable occurs late morning into the afternoon, as direction transitions to southwesterly sustained generally 14-18KT/gusts 19-25KT, before subsiding a bit by late afternoon. LLWS: Have maintained the inherited mention of LLWS overnight, and extended it by 1 hour, now focusing 03-10Z. In, short, winds within roughly the lowest 1K ft. above the surface will increase to around 40KT from the northwest, promoting generally 30-35KT of overall- shear magnitude between the surface and this level. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Near critical RH/winds this afternoon in some spots. Critical RH/winds are expected Wed afternoon. So a RFW has been posted for Dawson/Gosper/Furnas/Harlan/Phillips counties. Outside of the warning...near critical. Thu will be another day of critical or near-critical RH/wind. Fri and Sat will be windy...but low-lvl moisture should come up just enough to keep RH`s above 30%. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Wednesday for NEZ060-072- 082-083. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Wednesday for KSZ005. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kelley LONG TERM...Kelley AVIATION...Pfannkuch FIRE WEATHER...Kelley