Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 11/30/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
949 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2019 .UPDATE... This update accounts for the warm front`s position and associated T/Td/Visibility trends following its passage. The warm front has nearly cleared the forecast area, moving through our remaining northwestern counties as of 930pm. Temperatures and dewpoints continue to climb area-wide, with readings in the mid 70s now in place across parts of Central Texas. While this would otherwise be a favorable setup for warm sector surface-based convection, very strong warm advection in the 850-700mb layer has sharply strengthened a capping inversion, as noted by the 00z FWD sounding and more recent AMDAR soundings. This appears to be inhibiting any convective development at this time, and activity over the next several hours may be confined to elevated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms rooted above the inversion in the 600-700mb layer. Primary convective chances will still be along the upstream cold front as it moves into the forecast area around 2-3am. Convection should develop southwestward along the boundary as it advances through the forecast area through the early morning hours. Some hail will be possible with more robust updrafts during this time period due to steep lapse rates and strong effective shear. The wind/tornado potential should be substantially lessened due to the aformentioned lack of surface based instability and meager lapse rates through the lowest 2-3km. Only a sudden rapid erosion of the cap would increase the potential for the latter threats, which appears unlikely at this time. Otherwise, the potential for dense fog will generally cease now that the warm front is moving out of the area, as attendant stratus lifts a few hundred feet of the ground. As a result, the Dense Fog Advisory across our southwest has been allowed to expire. Visibility should continue improving gradually overnight. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /Issued 710 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2019/ /00Z TAFs/ LIFR conditions are expected to continue over the next few hours at all TAF sites, eventually lifting to IFR near 04Z-06Z. Dense fog at ACT will prevail for the next few hours until strong southerly winds settle in at approximately 04Z tonight. A warm front is still slowly making its way into North and Central Texas, causing dew points and temperatures to rise and moistening low levels. Scattered showers will stick around overnight, but with increasing instability, scattered thunderstorms will be possible after approximately 10Z to 11Z. Thunder may be possible before 10Z, but there wasn`t enough confidence to include in the TAFs for now. However, we`ll continue to re-evaluate the potential over the next few hours. The best chances for showers/thunderstorms area-wide arrive with the approaching cold front shortly before sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to come to an end around 15Z for D10 and 17Z for ACT as a thin line of storms moves southeastward with the front. VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the TAF period as the front ushers in dry, stable air. Strong northwest winds at 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph will settle into North Texas shortly after frontal passage. D10 could see some crosswind impacts through tomorrow evening before winds decrease near sunset. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 143 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2019/ /Saturday Night Through Next Week/ We will end this holiday weekend with such a nice but rather cool day. Sunday morning low temps will be in the upper 30s to low 40s and afternoon highs at around or just below normal values for December 1st; mid-to-upper 50s to near 60 degrees in Central TX. Surface high pressure will set up to our west and move over our region Monday morning. This, along with clear skies, will allow for efficient radiational cooling. Low temperatures will drop into the 30s across all North and Central TX, making it the coldest morning of the week. Furthermore, if surface winds go calm (as anticipated) in our western/northwestern counties, there is a good chance that some spots will dip into the 20s. Afternoon temps will stay once again in the near normal range (50s to low 60s range). The surface high pressure will move from west to east during the day, with south flow returning Monday evening. The good news is that most of the week will be dry, with a progressive ridge in the upper levels and a few fronts moving over us every couple of days. The first one will be on Tuesday, but our environment wont have enough moisture for any precipitation to occur. The only feature we will see from this weak front is the wind shift to the north late Tuesday afternoon/evening. Our afternoon temperatures will be above normal, 60s in most areas and 70s in Central TX. This front wont advect much cold air either, so our temperatures on Wednesday will be similar to the previous day and just a degree or two warmer on Thursday. Most of the model guidance continues to be in relatively good agreement bringing our next storm system and associated cold front by late Thursday or Friday morning. By that time, we will have enough deep Gulf moisture for showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop. For now we kept low PoPs Thursday afternoon/evening mainly along the Red River and east of the I-35 corridor. For now, this is where the best lift and moisture content appears to be. Rain chances will likely continue through the day on Friday before exiting our region right before next weekend starts. Sanchez && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1227 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2019/ /Through Saturday Afternoon/ The warm front was finally on the move across the southeast zones late this morning as evident by the rising temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s. We expect the front to continue moving northwest through the afternoon with slowly improving visibility. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon due to increasing large scale upward vertical motion associated with the energy ejecting out of the Desert Southwest. A lack of surface based instability and extensive cloud cover should keep most of the thunderstorms isolated through the evening with better chances arriving with the cold front toward daybreak Saturday. There will be a quick shot (a couple hour window) for storms associated with the front, followed by decreasing clouds. A few of these storms could become strong to marginally severe with hail and gusty winds. The remainder of Saturday be partly to mostly sunny and breezy with a west to northwest wind in the 15 to 25 mph range. Temperatures tonight will be very mild for late fall with lows generally in the 60s. Saturday will also be mild due to increasing sun and some adiabatic warming with highs from the mid 60s to the upper 70s. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 71 42 58 36 / 60 30 0 0 0 Waco 60 75 42 60 36 / 40 60 0 0 0 Paris 60 70 40 53 34 / 80 80 0 0 0 Denton 53 69 39 57 34 / 50 10 0 0 0 McKinney 61 70 40 56 34 / 80 40 0 0 0 Dallas 61 71 42 58 37 / 70 40 0 0 0 Terrell 64 73 41 58 35 / 70 80 0 0 0 Corsicana 65 73 43 57 37 / 50 70 0 0 0 Temple 60 76 43 61 37 / 30 50 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 57 67 37 56 31 / 30 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 26