Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 09/22/19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
656 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ A breezy southeast flow is in place across much of the area early this evening. Winds are forecast to remain around 10 to 15 knot range with gusts up to 25 knots through about midnight tonight. VFR conditions are expected across all area sites through 04Z Sunday with MVFR cigs anticipated for the I-35 terminals to begin around 05Z or short after. Current area radar images show isolated showers nearby KSAT and KSSF, however, the trend is for these showers to diminish and come to an end within the next few hours and HiRes models agree on this solution. MVFR cigs will dominate the overnight hours through late Sunday morning before clouds break for the return of VFR conditions. Southerly flow continues on Sunday with speeds ranging from 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts. Most showers and storms to stay over the Coastal Plains on Sunday afternoon/evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/ UPDATE... Deeper tropical moisture is draped along a Georgetown to Boerne to Carrizo Springs line late this afternoon per GOES Total Precipitable Water satellite imagery and have done a quick update to pull isolated rain chances into the Hill Country and Highway 83 Corridor based on latest radar trends. Aircraft soundings out of Austin and San Antonio show weak mid-level lapse rates and overall lightning/thunderstorm potential appears to remain low through the early evening hours. Given the diurnally driven nature of these showers, still anticipate loss of daytime heating to result in a quick dissipation of this activity by 9 PM. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday)... Isolated showers are ongoing across portions of the Coastal Plains and even extending up into the San Antonio area where a plume of elevated moisture exists. A few areas have picked up some wetting rains, with Stinson airport on the southeast side of San Antonio receiving a half inch of rain. Temperatures this afternoon are primarily in the 90s, with a few cooler locations across the Hill Country and where rain cooled air and increased cloud cover has kept temperatures tempered. Shower activity should come to an end this evening with the loss of heating. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with overnight lows in the mid 70s for most locations. A few streamer showers are possible toward morning. Another unseasonably warm day is expected on Sunday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s for most locations. There will be another slight chance for some showers, but the favored area will be pushed a little bit further east to the Coastal Plains. LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... The mid to upper level high across the southeastern US will generally stay in place through Monday before shifting further southeast to the eastern Gulf of Mexico near Florida toward mid week. An upper level trough is expected to come ashore in the Pacific Northwest by Sunday evening, heading southeast and becoming a well defined closed mid level low by Tuesday morning near the California/Arizona/Mexico border. It is expected to generally hang out in that area before becoming an open wave trough and existing to the northeast. For us here across South Central Texas, not a whole heck of a lot is expected to change, with south/southeasterly surface flow and generally weak mid to upper level winds persisting. Slight chance PoPs, high temperatures in the mid 90s, and lows in the mid 70s are expected to continue through the period. The Climate Prediction Center`s 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks continue to show high probabilities for warmer than normal temperatures continuing, and long term models continue to show no cold fronts on the horizon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 98 75 97 74 / 20 10 0 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 96 72 95 72 / 20 10 0 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 97 72 96 72 / 10 20 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 72 94 71 94 71 / 20 10 0 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 98 75 98 76 / - - 0 - 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 96 72 96 72 / 20 10 0 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 74 99 73 100 73 / 10 10 - 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 97 72 96 72 / 10 20 0 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 96 74 96 72 / 10 20 0 20 - San Antonio Intl Airport 75 97 75 96 75 / 10 20 - 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 75 99 75 99 75 / 10 20 - 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Aviation...17 Short-Term/Long-Term...Huffman Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
939 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring generally fair weather and warm temperatures to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through the weekend. A weak cold front may bring some showers to locations west of the Blue Ridge on Monday, but high pressure will once again build over the area with a return to fair weather through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 930 PM EDT Saturday... Showers have finally tapered off this evening. Added fog to areas that saw rain this afternoon and evening, particularly Rockbridge and Amherst Counties and the New River Valley. As of 720 PM EDT Saturday... Isolated showers are fading this evening with lose of heating. High pressure surface and aloft then brings another day of fair weather with warmer temperatures to close out the weekend on Sunday. Lows tonight will be a few ticks warmer than last night with readings in the lower 60s east of the Blue Ridge and mid to upper 50s west. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 80s to near 90 east, low/mid 80s west. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EDT Saturday... The upper air pattern deamplifies briefly early in the week allowing for a surface cold front to make passage Monday. The front is expected to be moisture starved with High Pressure over the Gulf Coast States blocking any substantial connection to the Gulf. As such, the cold front will pass through the forecast area within a westerly flow regime, causing most, if not all, of the shower activity to dry up as the front crosses the mountains Monday afternoon. Bottom line, little or no QPF is expected with this frontal passage, most of which will be confined to areas west of the Blue Ridge, and even then generally netting less than a tenth of an inch. Temperatures Monday should easily climb above normal east of the Blue Ridge where the front is not expected to arrive until the late afternoon or evening. Mountain locations should be closer to normal, with clouds increasing Monday morning and helping to offset the temperature rise. Post frontal conditions Tuesday will place the forecast area under dry air advection with surface High Pressure becoming re- established...temperatures closer to the seasonal norm. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... Flat mean flow is forecast for mid-week with another dry surface frontal passage anticipated Thursday. After Thursday, a rapid transition to high amplitude flow is forecast with a full latitude long wave trof on the West Coast and an eastern U.S. Ridge of High Pressure. Some of the models indicate the eastern Ridge may gain an amplitude to something like we would see in August with a 594-596 dm 500H anticyclone centered somewhere vcnty of the mid-MS valley. As such this should effectively block moisture over a big piece of real estate to include our forecast area through next weekend, and potentially yielding a dry finish to the last full week of September...the 6 to 10 day outlook advertising temperatures well above normal and precipitation below normal. With 850MB temperatures returning to the +16 to +20 degree range, the possibility for a few more 90 degree days are still within reach in spite of the shortening diurnal cycle and fall equinox. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Saturday... Isolated showers are fading this evening. Expect IFR/LIFR valley fog to develop late tonight with the best chance for poor flight conditions at KLWB, possibly KBCB. Winds will be light through the period with no impact to aircraft operations expected. .Extended Aviation Discussion... A weak cold front may bring scattered MVFR showers on Monday. High pressure then builds in behind the front with a return to VFR conditions during the days and some IFR valley fog during the nights through midweek. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...MBS/RCS