Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 09/06/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
Issued by National Weather Service Pueblo CO 836 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 836 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Persistent storm continue to form along an outflow boundary over the plains and over the metro area. Increased PoPs for the next few hours, but eventually a stable atmosphere will overcome the showers that are occurring. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 344 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Satellite and radar pictures are showing some convection developing over the mountains, foothills and the plains in Weld county at this time. The strongest convection is over northern Park County. The plains have a northeasterly wind field in place at this time. It is difficult to locate a cold front over the plains or upstream in Nebraska or Wyoming. Most locations have north and northeasterly winds now. There is still a significant cap at around 450 mb on the ACARS soundings at this time. Models keep the upper ridge centered over southern Colorado overnight. The upper ridge center migrates south into New Mexico by Friday afternoon. The flow aloft is weak and west-southwesterly tonight and Friday. The QG Omega fields have very weak upward energy in the synoptic scale for the CWA tonight and Friday. The low level wind fields show easterly upslope winds much of tonight, then east-southeasterlies much of Friday. For moisture, there is plenty in the mid and upper levels on all the models tonight and Friday. Precipitable water values are in the 0.75 to 1.10 inch range this evening, then they increase into the 0.75 to 1.50 inch range overnight and Friday for all the CWA. There is fairly high CAPE over the mountains this evening. Values are pretty high again over the western half of the CWA Friday, with some CAPE over the eastern half. The QPF fields show measurable rainfall over the high country this evening. On Friday, there is measurable rainfall over much of the CWA with the highest amounts over the mountains and foothills east of the divide. For pops, will go with 10-40%s this evening for the western half of the CWA. By Friday afternoon, pops will be 30-80%s for the mountains, foothills and western half of the plains. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 The main features in the coming week`s weather are a weak shortwave moving over the northern Rockies as there`s a moisture plume over Colorado on Saturday, followed by a larger shortwave trough late Sunday. The models are in pretty good agreement on these features. The only complicating issue is that the amount of instability on the plains is in question. Cool surface temperatures will take the edge off of the thunderstorm threat despite the moisture. This will likely limit how many storms get onto the plains on Saturday. The Sunday wave should have better lift to overcome weak capping and should also wipe out our persistent inversion just above 500 mb, so Sunday afternoon looks like the most likely time to get fairly widespread rain. It is a fairly quick moving system timed in the afternoon, so one good batch of convection with perhaps some weak trailing showers is the most likely mode of convection, but it could be different if the shortwave timing winds up being off a bit. Cloud cover will restrain temperatures a little these days, likely keeping us in the 80s despite a still hot air mass. Behind the late Sunday trough, much drier southwest flow aloft will develop. There could still be some limited late day convection, mainly over the east slopes of the mountains. There doesn`t appear to be a lot of warming, but we could creep up towards the 90 degree mark again. Another trough should develop over the west and could bring a bit stronger cooling and a better chance of rain about Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 836 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Showers are lasting longer than anticipated, therefore a tempo group has been reintroduced into the TAF. Low clouds are anticipated for KDEN, KAPA, and KBJC, but the coverage shouldn`t be wide enough to lower flight categories, therefore VFR conditions are anticipated throughout the forecast period. Tomorrow afternoon and evening there is another chance at thunderstorm development over all of the forecast points, therefore gusty and erratic winds if a storm develops near the forecast point. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...PUB Backup SHORT TERM...RJK LONG TERM...Gimmestad AVIATION...PUB Backup