Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 08/24/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1042 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 .DISCUSSION... A broad area of low pressure has moved west over southeast Florida with a rotation still noted near Miami. Radar imagery from both the Miami and Key West radars show that most of the convection from earlier in the day has dissipated with the exception along and just offshore of Miami proper. Surface observations show that the trough axis lies over Florida Bay and the Middle Keys. Middle Keys/Upper Keys and surrounding waters, the winds have become southwest, while the Lower Keys and surrounding waters winds remain from the northwest to north. This area of low pressure will continue to slowly trek northwestward for the overnight and winds will eventually shift to the southwest across the entire island chain. Best chances for precipitation will remain in the Upper Keys and surrounding coastal waters. Only minor changes were made to the wording in the coastal forecast for the overnight period, otherwise forecast remains on track. && .MARINE... A disorganized low pressure system will continue to track northwestward across South Florida through the overnight and into Saturday. This feature will then lift out northeastward late in the weekend into early next week. As a result, winds will start out light and wrapping cyclonically around the low then become a more uniform light to gentle south to southwesterly through the weekend. Thereafter, ridging will lift northward towards the Keys, behind the departing low, but then break down. This will leave light and variable winds across the area. && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals overnight as a broad and disorganized low pressure system lumbers northwest from near South Florida. Variable low-level steering will become confluent and southwesterly Saturday. Given the lower pressure, ample moisture, and vertical profile favorable for congestus along the island chain, there are good chances for afternoon thunderstorm impacts at both terminals. For now we have only included vicinity mentions, although periods of MVFR CIGS/IFR VIS will be possible with convective wind gusts near 25 knots. && .TROPICAL... A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southeastern Florida continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northern Bahamas and the adjacent western Atlantic waters. The system has changed little in organization since this afternoon, but environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend. The low is forecast to move generally northwestward near or over southeastern Florida through tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the Atlantic near the east coast of central Florida on Saturday. After that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday, if necessary. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands has become better defined, but the thunderstorm activity is limited at this time. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Collection......SD Visit us on the web at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: