Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 08/03/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
725 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Aloft: Upr-air data from RAOBs and aircraft and RAP tropopause analyses showed that the flow over the CONUS was dominated by a large subtropical high over NM with a ridge extending into the Canadian Prairies. Trofs were along the Pac NW coast and along the Appalachians. Anticyclonic NW flow was over NEB/KS. A wk mid-lvl shrtwv trof extended from ND-KS. This trof will diminish further as rounds the high into the lwr MS Vly by 00Z/Sun. Surface: High pres was over the GtLks. A barely noticeable stationary front extended acrs the Gulf Coast states to wk low pres along the KS-OK border. Another wk low was over SD. This low will dissipate tonight while the KS-OK low gradually sinks into Nrn TX by 00Z/Sun. Meanwhile...the wk GtLks high will gradually shift to the W and extend into NEB. Rest of this afternoon: Partly to mostly cldy. The mdls hv been struggling with the nebulous forcing. The main concern on this shift has been the persistent low-echo-centroid convection affecting Valley county with flash flooding. The echoes hv been very persistent. 88D estimates pockets of 4-8" may hv occurred. We won`t know for sure until the gauge reports come in. We hv received reports of water over county roads. PWAT is around 2". These are incredibly efficient rainers with warm rain processes dominating. Can`t rule out isold shwrs popping up elsewhere...but despite the lack of a cap...the lack of forcing may keep much from happening outside of what`s already in progress. Tonight: Partly cldy during the eve. Can`t rule out isold shwrs and possibly a tstm or two. Somewhat begrudgingly left a mention of precip in the fcst...but believe most locations should remain dry. Conds are fvrbl for fog and low stratus to reform. MAV MOS has been insistent for the last 5 runs that widespread fog will form with vsbys in some areas 1/4 mi or less. We may need to issue a Dense Fog Advy. Sat: A foggy start for most if not all the area. It could be dense. Skies should eventually become partly cldy...but as it erodes from the edges...there could be a swath that remains mostly cldy for much of the day. Did maintain a mention of precip...but it will probably be dry. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Aloft: Moderately-amplified anticyclonic NW flow Sun will deamplify Mon as a fairly potent low mvs thru the Canadian Prairies. This will cause heights to fall and cyclonic WNW flow over NEB/KS as the subtropical high gets suppressed and shoved back into the W a bit. The flow will become less cyclonic mid-late next wk...but remain from the WNW. Surface: A cool front associated with the Canadian Prairies low will move thru Mon. Another cool front is fcst to mv thru Thu. In the interim...wk high pres. Temps: averaging a little cooler than normal. Pcpn: Isold tstms will be psbl Mon with the FROPA. Thereafter... the mdls are suggesting isold tstms here and there...but predictability and confidence are extremely low. Overall...the chance of rain is not good. Most locations will remain dry. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday) Issued at 719 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Significant wx: IFR CIGs/VSBYs likely. Tonight: Mixed VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions next few hrs, with VFR/MVFR the most prominent through 04Z. CIGs will deteriorate around 06Z with eventually some fog developing by 09Z, which will probably fall to 1/2 to 1 mi through dawn. Winds will be lgt out of the ESE before going lgt and vrbl late. Confidence: CIGs - high, VSBYs - medium. Saturday: IFR to MVFR. IFR CIGs/VSBYs expected to start the day with gradual improvement by mid to late morning. Should see primarily MVFR CIGs for the aftn, but VFR isn`t out of the question. Winds will be SE around 5-10kt. Confidence: Medium. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 We need to watch the N Loup Rvr Basin as svrl inches of rain fell this aftn. That water will be working its way down thru Valley/ Greeley/Howard counties. Water lvls will be rising for sure. We may need to issue Areal Flood Wrngs for the N Loup Rvr and the creeks that drain into it. .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kelley LONG TERM...Kelley AVIATION...Thies