Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/09/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
818 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS...08/1149 AM. Morning clouds will give way to afternoon sunshine, with the exception of a few beaches that will remain cloudy. Throughout the week, afternoon temperatures will rise and overnight and morning clouds will diminish each day. && .SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...08/817 PM. Weak upper level trough over the region will gradually lift northward as upper level high pressure system begins to expand northwestward towards southeast California on Tuesday afternoon. This will result in higher heights returning to the region on Tuesday, with a corresponding shrinkage of the marine layer. Earlier this morning, the marine layer had deepened to around 3500 feet, but current ACARS data and 00z Vandenberg sounding showing the marine layer depth ranging between 2000 and 2500 feet. Current satellite imagery showing patches of low clouds returning to some coastal areas this evening, with low clouds expected to fill in across many coastal/valley areas overnight into Tuesday morning. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to rise 3 to 5 degrees across most interior areas, still slightly below normal for this time of year. As heights/thicknesses build Wednesday into Thursday, warming trend will be more noticeable across interior sections, with highs climbing back into the 90s in the warmest valleys, and reaching around 100 degrees in the deserts. *** From previous discussion *** As for winds, no major issues expected. The decreasing onshore gradients will result in weaker southwesterly winds each afternoon and evening across interior sections. With the strengthening northerly offshore gradients, some locally gusty northerly winds can be expected each night through and below the Santa Ynez Range with the strongest winds from Refugio westward. Overall, expect wind speeds to remain below advisory levels. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...08/202 PM. For the extended, 12Z models continue in good agreement, indicating very July-like weather for the district. Main feature will be the development of the 4-Corners high over the desert Southwest and the continued weak surface gradients. With the 4-Corners high and weak gradients, the marine inversion will remain shallow with limited stratus/fog during the night and morning hours. Any stratus that develops could remain rather stubborn along the beaches due to the atmospheric subsidence strengthening the marine inversion. With respect to temperatures, expect rather warm temperatures for all areas with Friday and Saturday likely the warmest days with most areas 4-8 degrees above seasonal normals. At this time, models do not indicate much, if any, surge of monsoonal moisture at this time. However, given the location of the ridge, the possibility of some monsoonal moisture moving into the area during the period needs to monitored closely each day. && .AVIATION...08/2338Z. At 2335Z, the marine layer depth was near 3000 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was around 4800 feet with a temperature near 19 degrees Celsius. Moderate confidence in the current forecast. For areas north of Point Conception, IFR/LIFR cigs expected to prevail tonight into Tuesday morning. For areas south of Point Conception, expecting mostly IFR/MVFR cigs tonight into Tuesday morning, but have delayed some of the arrival times of cigs in latest TAF package based on latest satellite/model trends. Some low clouds could linger near immediate coastal areas into the afternoon hours on Tuesday. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00z TAF. Expecting arrival time of MVFR cigs between 04z-06z and likely persisting through Tuesday morning, with a 20 percent chance of cigs lingering into the afternoon hours. KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00z TAF. Have delayed arrival time of MVFR cigs at KBUR to 11z, with earlier burnoff time expected on Tuesday morning. There is a 30 percent chance of IFR cigs at KBUR early Tuesday morning. && .MARINE...08/817 PM. Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected across the two northern zones through late tonight. Winds will diminish some on Tuesday, with a 50 percent chance of SCA level winds across all the Outer Waters Tuesday night increasing to a 70 percent chance Wednesday through Saturday. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels through Wednesday afternoon. There is a 50 percent chance of SCA level winds Wednesday evening increasing to a 60 percent chance of SCA conditions Thursday afternoon through Friday. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday evening, SCA level winds are likely over the western SBA Channel during the late afternoon to evening hours through Friday, and possibly through Saturday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON). No significant hazards expected. && $$ PUBLIC...Gomberg/Thompson AVIATION...Gomberg MARINE...Smith SYNOPSIS...AA