Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/30/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
740 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFs/ Thunderstorms currently rolling through the Metroplex have become loosely organized along an outflow boundary arced in the shape of a half-circle between the Dallas area and Waco. Storms will continue to push southwest; exiting the DFW area while entering the Waco area in the next hour. Gusty winds will be the primary concern, though with dwindling surface heating, the severe threat should be on its way down. Easterly winds behind the outflow boundary should weaken later this evening and eventually turn to the southeast by sunrise Sunday. There is an outside chance of MVFR in the Dallas area early Sunday, so will maintain the TEMPO group for DFW and DAL for Sunday morning. For Sunday afternoon, there is an outside chance for a few storms, but activity will have shifted mainly south and west of the region along with the upper level disturbance responsible for this evening`s convection. 30 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019/ /Through Sunday Morning/ The main challenge in the short term forecast period will be convective chances across the area. Surface analysis this afternoon revealed an outflow boundary was noted near a Bonham to Greenville to Nacogdoches line. This feature...coupled with a diffuse mid/upper level impulse will likely be the impetus for what should be a proliferation of shower and thunderstorm activity. Mesoanalysis indicates a very healthy instability profile with CAPE values in excess of 3500 J/kg. Recent AMDAR data out of Dallas Love Field indicates respectable north to northeasterly mid and upper level flow for late June and as a result...we could see some loosely organized convective modes that will generally travel from the northeast to southwest. Given the inverted-V type sounding profiles and 0-3km theta-e deficits of around 30K...we will have to contend with a damaging wind risk. Deep layer shear around 30 knots will support quasi- steady state updrafts and when coupled with the high to extreme instability will yield a large hail risk. Heavy rain and flooding will remain a threat, though storm motions should be sufficiently high to preclude a long duration heavy rain episode. Any training echoes, however, will be monitored for a brief flash flood risk. The 12 UTC NAM NEST appears a little too aggressive with its depiction of a well organized MCS by early evening. While I do feel that the potential exists for a a loose complex of storms, it still remains uncertain how expansive it will be. The current forecast continues to favor scenarios advertised by the latest HRRR and 12 UTC TTU WRF. The best potential for rain/storms will be near and east of a Killeen to Hillsboro to D/FW to Sherman/Denison line trough the evening hours (though rain/storm chances exist west of this line). Some nocturnal convection may persist tonight into Central Texas and I`ll hold onto a 40-50 PoP near and south of the I-14/US HWY 190 corridor through 12 UTC. If a well established MCS gets going, PoPs may need to be increased. There will be a potential for some morning stratus/fog north of I-20 and east of I-35, but confidence is a little too low to include in the forecast at this time. Bain && .LONG TERM... /Issued 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019/ /Sunday Through This Week/ We`ll continue to track out southwest-moving mid level disturbance across Southeast Texas into South-Central Texas during the day Sunday. Early in the day, expect most concentration of showers/ thunderstorms to be in close in vicinity of this immediate track with our far southern Texas counties seeing the best chances through early afternoon. Afterward, surface boundaries, differential heating, and pockets of instability along the edge of anvil debris has me introducing 20% PoP through the remainder of our CWA and to the Red River Valley. Though a strong storm can`t be ruled out farther north where better instability will likely reside from stronger insolation, Theta-E deficits in the surface to 700mb layer do not look near as pronounced as today, so the severe risk will be much less. High temperatures remain problematic and completely at the mercy of who breaks out of the clouds and who doesn`t. Central Texas areas may be hard- pressed to get into the mid 80s, while lower 90s are likely in the far northwest where more insolation is likely to be found Sunday afternoon. Low convective chances will remain Sunday night, mainly across Western Central Texas in vicinity of our system and better ascent, which will slowly pull away from our area on Monday. I can`t rule out isolated, more "airmass" type diurnal activity across the region on Monday, but for most folks the forecast will be seasonably very warm and humid with no additional rainfall. The lull in precipitation chances will continue Monday night into Tuesday morning, before increasing across Central Texas later Tuesday and Tuesday night, as a shortwave lifts northward from the Western Gulf of Mexico and across the Sabine River Valley. Embedded shortwave energy will continue within a "weakness" between two weak upper ridge axes moving into the mid week and 4th of July holiday period with mostly diurnally-driven shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across much of the area. I`ll stress with weak flow and subtle forcing aloft and no synoptic surface focusing mechanisms around, that this will NOT be a complete washout for outdoor activities and fireworks, as the loss of heating each evening should help diminish coverage and intensity of most convective activity after dark. Otherwise, a broad, but not overly intense subtropical upper high expands across the Southern CONUS for more typical Summer conditions next weekend and beyond. A few diurnal hit n` miss storms each afternoon and early evening, but nothing widespread. Highs will average in the lower- mid 90s. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 89 71 90 72 / 30 20 20 20 5 Waco 70 87 70 89 69 / 50 30 30 20 10 Paris 69 87 69 88 70 / 30 20 20 20 5 Denton 71 89 70 90 71 / 20 20 20 20 5 McKinney 71 87 70 89 71 / 30 20 20 20 5 Dallas 73 90 72 90 72 / 30 20 20 20 5 Terrell 71 87 70 90 71 / 30 20 20 20 5 Corsicana 69 86 68 86 69 / 50 20 20 20 10 Temple 70 86 69 88 68 / 60 40 30 20 10 Mineral Wells 69 90 68 89 68 / 20 20 20 20 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 30/11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
631 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Tonight-Sunday: An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out through sunset in southeast KS, but chances now appear too low to mention based on latest satellite and ACARs soundings. There is another remote chance Sunday morning across south central KS where majority of models suggest a modest influx of low level moisture. Given drier air aloft, chances do not appear to be likely enough to mention either. 850MB temperatures fall on Sunday, so highs should be a bit lower. Monday-Tuesday: Slight increase in 850MB moisture and decreasing in 850MB temperatures anticipated during the period. May see an isolated storm Monday afternoon in southeast KS, but there is no specific trigger other than afternoon heating. That said, both GFS and NAM suggest over 3000 J/Kilogram of CAPE but little if any deep layer shear. Chances for storms appears slightly higher on Tuesday, as weakening circulation moving northeast gets closer. -Howerton .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 With departing circulation at the start of the period, area will be located on western side of expansive upper ridge axis. With plenty of low level moisture and some heating, isolated diurnal storms will be possible throughout most of the period. Chances may get a bit better Friday night-Saturday as both GFS/ECMWF show front sagging into the forecast area. GFS appears to be a bit a agressive with amount and coverage of precipitation and prefer the weaker and more chaotic surface wind fields of the 1200 UTC ECMWF late in the forecast. -Howerton && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 While VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, can`t rule out the possibility of a stray thunderstorm in Southeast Kansas this evening. The chances are so low, left this out of the TAF at this time. Light winds and clear skies are expected tonight for the reminder of the region with sunny skies and light southerly winds expected for Sunday. Metzger && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 73 94 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 73 95 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 72 93 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 ElDorado 70 92 69 89 / 10 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 71 92 70 89 / 10 0 0 10 Russell 73 98 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 72 96 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 74 97 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 73 95 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 70 90 71 89 / 10 0 0 10 Chanute 71 90 70 89 / 10 0 0 10 Iola 71 90 70 89 / 10 0 0 10 Parsons-KPPF 70 90 71 89 / 10 0 0 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ033-049. && $$ SHORT TERM...PJH LONG TERM...PJH AVIATION...ELM