Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/19/17


Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION... Isolated thunderstorms will impact the DRT terminal this evening and we have included a TEMPO group for TSRA through 01Z. Convection should then dissipate through the remainder of this evening as daytime heating decreases. Elsewhere, a few showers continue to the north of AUS. However, this activity will not impact the terminal. Cloud cover should gradually decrease through this evening, then begin to increase during the early morning hours on Wednesday. MVFR cigs are forecast for all sites beginning roughly 10Z, except near 12Z at AUS. Cigs will continue until mid-morning, then lift and scatter back to VFR. Some afternoon convection remains possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, but most activity should remain east of the I-35 sites. Some convection is also possible along the Rio Grande, but current data suggests any storms will remain west of DRT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday)... Main weather highlight will center around the climbing heat index values back into the 100-107F range across most of the region as rainfall chances dwindle. Only isolated rain/storms are expected this afternoon and even more limited coverage is anticipated for Wednesday. The mid and upper inverted shortwave trough that has helped be the spark in generating the greater than normal rain chances over the past few days has now shifted west over northern Mexico. While some of its fleeting influence is evident in shower generation across the Rio Grande Plains this afternoon, overall coverage across the region is much lower then previous days. A few sea-breeze showers are occurring this afternoon as well but coverage and infiltration inland will be limited. All rain activity is expected to decrease just after sunset as the atmosphere stabilizes. For Wednesday, expect temperatures to be 1-2F degrees warmer as low- and mid-level high pressure strengthen across the central CONUS and north Texas. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be likely across the immediate coastal plains along the sea-breeze but don`t expect it to reach inland by only a few tiers of counties. Heat index values will be on the increase into the mid 90s for the Hill Country and 103-107F range for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor where humidity will be the highest. LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... The continued weather concern in the long term will be the heat index values climbing into the upper 90s for the Hill Country and 103-108F for the rest of the region during peak heating hours. Very limited rain coverage is expected with the exception of the Coastal Plains. Strong ridging over the Central Plains through the late week and early weekend will result in persistently warm conditions across the region. Low temperatures will only fall into the mid 70s with highs reaching into the upper 90s and low 100s each day. Please use caution if prolonged outdoor activities are planned. By late weekend into early next week, the H5 ridge will break down and shift west as a retrograding cut-off low shifts across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This solution now appears more likely with the ECMWF now following the GFS solution from yesterday (that also continues today). However, it appears the the cut-off low will stall before reaching Texas and the ridge will strengthen back by Tuesday. Rain chances will be quite low during this period while areas across south-central Texas fall further in to drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 99 77 99 77 / 10 10 - - - Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 - 10 - New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 98 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 - Burnet Muni Airport 73 96 73 95 75 / 10 - - - - Del Rio Intl Airport 75 97 75 98 76 / 30 - - - - Georgetown Muni Airport 75 97 75 98 76 / 20 - - - - Hondo Muni Airport 75 99 74 100 74 / 10 10 10 - - San Marcos Muni Airport 75 97 75 98 75 / 10 10 - 10 - La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 10 20 - San Antonio Intl Airport 77 98 76 98 77 / 10 10 10 - - Stinson Muni Airport 76 97 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...24 Synoptic/Grids...LH Public Service/Data Collection...Williams