Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/10/17


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
908 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 .UPDATE... Mesoanalysis reveals CIN quickly developing over the CWA with loss of daytime heating. As a result storms continue to diminish over the area, with just two lone cells remaining across southern Blanco and southwest Hays counties. These may impact portions of Comal county before dissipating over the next hour or two. Re-adjusted POPs and hourly T/Td trends for remainder of evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFs/ There is an isolated severe threat mainly west of AUS, and a few showers and thunderstorms have a chance to produce lightning and gusty winds in the AUS vcnty through around 03Z. Afterwards, a benign forecast is expected with most of the rapid refresh models keeping the convection just outside the San Antonio metro area. Overnight skies should be partly cloudy for the most part but pockets of mvfr cigs are expected to form over the I-35 terminals toward daybreak. CIRA SIMWRF fog product has the clouds forming first at SAT/SSF, so the forecast will continue to show a slight delay before cigs form over AUS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday)... Main forecast concern through the next 6-12 hours will center around scattered storm chances for portions of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor. Rain chances have been increased during the 5pm to 11pm time-frame to 40% these areas. A storm or two may become strong with very localized wind gusts of 30-40 mph and small hail. This risk is low and coverage is not expected to be large across the region. Please see below for more details. Water vapor and RAP analysis depict a positively tilted trough shifting across NE Texas. The base of the trough will brush across south-central Texas through the afternoon and early evening and coincide with maximum instability near 2500 J/Kg. A weak capping inversion remains in place per aircraft soundings out of KAUS and KSAT but it should weaken just enough to allow for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Such convective development has already shown some signals of occurring north of the region near a small MCV apparent on visible satellite. Hi-res model trends continue to point towards the development of these showers and storms across the east Hill Country and northern I-35 corridor. With DCAPE near 800 J/Kg and weak upper level divergence, a storm may become strong with small hail and gusty winds. These storms should not have great overall coverage and remained confined to the I-35 corridor region through the late afternoon and evening. Expect what storms do develop to weaken by midnight. Saturday will be a quieter day as the trough actually closes off over the Texas coast but the region will be on the drier northern flow, negative vorticity advection area, with slightly lower PWATs. There could be some limited sea-breeze activity along the Texas coast but it unlikely to make into the coastal plains and have gone with a dry forecast with near normal temperatures. LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Seasonal pattern of sea-breeze activity will be the main set-up through late weekend and through much of next week. Coastal plains will have a 20-30% chance of rain and general thunderstorms each afternoon with some of this making into the I-35 corridor late into the afternoons each day. Areas west of I-35 will remain hot and dry with heat indices reaching into the low 100s. A weak sub-tropical atlantic H5 ridge and weak H85-H7 inverted trough along the south Texas coast will aid in moist SE flow through the week. Daily sea-breeze activity is expected with little to no expected activity west of I-35. This pattern will persist through much of next week. Areas will warm into the low to mid 90s each day with some pockets of upper 90s along the Rio Grande. Heat index values will increase to 100-105F and precautions should be used during this heat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 70 91 72 92 73 / 20 - - 10 - Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 90 71 91 72 / 20 - - 10 - New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 90 70 92 72 / 10 - - 10 - Burnet Muni Airport 68 89 69 89 70 / 20 - - 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 96 73 96 73 / - - - 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 90 71 90 72 / 20 - - 10 - Hondo Muni Airport 71 93 71 93 72 / 10 - - - 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 91 71 91 72 / 20 - - 10 - La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 90 72 91 73 / 10 - - 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 91 72 93 73 / 10 - - 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 71 92 73 93 73 / 10 - - 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks Synoptic/Grids...Runyen Public Service/Data Collection...YB