Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 10/19/16


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
657 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)... Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 Isolated to scattered showers continue along and north of the Ohio River this afternoon. Some thunderstorms are expected to develop as the region destabilizes this afternoon. AMDAR soundings show a decent cap aloft, but NAM soundings do show this eroding over southern IN over the next few hours. Given this and the axis of instability that has developed near the front, a few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon and early evening across southern IN and portions of north central KY. Gusty winds and large hail would be the threats with the strongest storms. As a surface low approaches tonight, the frontal boundary should lift more to the north bringing a brief break to the showers and storms. However, they will move back into southern IN after midnight. Soundings show some decent capping in place overnight. Therefore, there could be some elevated storms overnight with lightning being the main threat. A few showers and storms may develop near the Lake Cumberland region early tomorrow morning as well. As the surface low tracks to the northeast tomorrow, the trailing cold front will swing through. Decent shear values and instability in the 1000-2000 J/kg range from mid day tomorrow through the afternoon may lead to another round of strong to marginally severe storms with damaging winds and large hail. The best chance for stronger storms looks to be east of the I-65 corridor. Showers and storms will continue to push off to the east through tomorrow night, with most regions dry by Friday morning. Temperatures will remain mild tonight ahead of the cold front with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temps tomorrow will be tricky with the front moving through during the day. Most of southern IN may not make it out of the 60s, while temps look to drop in the afternoon across central KY. Lows tomorrow night will be much cooler, dropping into the 40s. .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 A sharp upper trough will move east of the region early Friday morning. This will bring an end to the precipitation. Cooler air will continue to advect in. With this, temperatures on Friday look to top out in the upper 50s to around 60s. Lows on Saturday morning will be quite chilly with some of the colder and sheltered locations dropping into the upper to possibly mid 30s. Some patchy frost will be a possibility in those locations. High pressure will build in into the weekend with ridging aloft building in through the beginning of the next work week. Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the long term period. Temperatures will rise back into the low 70s. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 657 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 Showers and storms riding along a frontal boundary over southern IN will remain the main concern overnight. At this point, think the bulk of activity will slide north of the terminals, however cannot rule out some showers at SDF in the pre-dawn hours. Won`t go as far as menttioning TS at SDF given persistent capping around 600 mb, but do think we could see isolated to widely scattered showers. VCSH potential should hang around for the rest of the day, with best chances for prevailing -SHRA in the afternoon Thursday. At this point, thermal profiles seem look to marginal to include TSRA mention. Frontal passage midday at SDF will yield NW winds through the afternoon, a bit gusty at times. Low ceilings in the low MVFR or IFR range are also possible later Thursday afternoon/evening. Will go dry at LEX overnight, with the potential for a few showers by late morning Thursday. Frontal passage happens by early to mid afternoon with potential for showers and low MVFR/IFR ceilings to the end of the cycle. BWG will be dry overnight, with the potential for a few showers by late morning. Frontal passage happens around midday, with gusty NW winds, some showers, and low MVFR or IFR ceilings. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........EER Long Term.........EER Aviation..........BJS