Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 10/19/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
657 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Isolated to scattered showers continue along and north of the Ohio
River this afternoon. Some thunderstorms are expected to develop as
the region destabilizes this afternoon. AMDAR soundings show a
decent cap aloft, but NAM soundings do show this eroding over
southern IN over the next few hours. Given this and the axis of
instability that has developed near the front, a few strong to
marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon and early
evening across southern IN and portions of north central KY. Gusty
winds and large hail would be the threats with the strongest storms.
As a surface low approaches tonight, the frontal boundary should
lift more to the north bringing a brief break to the showers and
storms. However, they will move back into southern IN after
midnight. Soundings show some decent capping in place overnight.
Therefore, there could be some elevated storms overnight with
lightning being the main threat. A few showers and storms may
develop near the Lake Cumberland region early tomorrow morning as
As the surface low tracks to the northeast tomorrow, the trailing
cold front will swing through. Decent shear values and instability
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range from mid day tomorrow through the
afternoon may lead to another round of strong to marginally severe
storms with damaging winds and large hail. The best chance for
stronger storms looks to be east of the I-65 corridor. Showers and
storms will continue to push off to the east through tomorrow night,
with most regions dry by Friday morning.
Temperatures will remain mild tonight ahead of the cold front with
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temps tomorrow will be tricky
with the front moving through during the day. Most of southern IN
may not make it out of the 60s, while temps look to drop in the
afternoon across central KY. Lows tomorrow night will be much
cooler, dropping into the 40s.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
A sharp upper trough will move east of the region early Friday
morning. This will bring an end to the precipitation. Cooler air
will continue to advect in. With this, temperatures on Friday look
to top out in the upper 50s to around 60s. Lows on Saturday morning
will be quite chilly with some of the colder and sheltered locations
dropping into the upper to possibly mid 30s. Some patchy frost will
be a possibility in those locations.
High pressure will build in into the weekend with ridging aloft
building in through the beginning of the next work week. Dry weather
is expected through the remainder of the long term period.
Temperatures will rise back into the low 70s.
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 657 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Showers and storms riding along a frontal boundary over southern IN
will remain the main concern overnight. At this point, think the
bulk of activity will slide north of the terminals, however cannot
rule out some showers at SDF in the pre-dawn hours. Won`t go as far
as menttioning TS at SDF given persistent capping around 600 mb, but
do think we could see isolated to widely scattered showers. VCSH
potential should hang around for the rest of the day, with best
chances for prevailing -SHRA in the afternoon Thursday. At this
point, thermal profiles seem look to marginal to include TSRA
mention. Frontal passage midday at SDF will yield NW winds through
the afternoon, a bit gusty at times. Low ceilings in the low MVFR or
IFR range are also possible later Thursday afternoon/evening.
Will go dry at LEX overnight, with the potential for a few showers
by late morning Thursday. Frontal passage happens by early to mid
afternoon with potential for showers and low MVFR/IFR ceilings to
the end of the cycle.
BWG will be dry overnight, with the potential for a few showers by
late morning. Frontal passage happens around midday, with gusty NW
winds, some showers, and low MVFR or IFR ceilings.