Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/28/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1157 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building aloft will support continued hot conditions away from the coast through Wednesday. High pressure will likely weaken and shift eastward for the second half of the week resulting in a gradual cooling trend heading into next weekend. && .UPDATE... The latest visible imagery indicates marine layer stratus well entrenched along the beaches this morning. The current marine layer depth is around 700 feet on the latest KLAX AMDAR soundings. With the tight marine inversion, the stratus will likely struggle could struggle to pull away from the coast this afternoon. Some clouds should be expected to hang near the coastline this afternoon. Outside of the marine layer, the air mass will continue to warm up. Onshore flow is weakening this morning as high pressure over the Four Corners region strengthens and expands westward. A hot air mass will be in place for early this week. The heat could turn dangerously hot over the next couple of days. Heat index values look to fall short of criteria today, but a tick up in the humidity could increase heat index values to critical levels. Model solutions are starting to pick up on the moisture over Southeast Arizona this morning and pushing northwestward into Southern California on Monday. This could enough of a bump to push heat index values higher on Monday and maybe bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to San Gabriel Mountains. PoPs will likely be increased for Monday and Monday evening, but data will be monitored for changes. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE) Really not much change in the forecast for Monday. Maybe a little more mid level moisture. Maybe a little more humid at low levels. Do have to watch the low level RH though because if it comes in just a little higher than fcst a few areas will see heat index values sufficiently high for Heat Warnings. Still hot everywhere except the beaches. Large upper high to the east really does not change much Tuesday. Hgts remain near 594 DM. There does not look like there will be much an eddy and the low clouds should only affect the L.A. coast. There are slight onshore trends in the SFC grads both to the north and east and this will allow for a few degrees of cooling across the coasts and to a lesser degree the vlys, The interior will continue to sizzle. .LONG TERM...(WED-SAT) On Wednesday the closed upper high is forecast to weaken into a ridge and slide slowly to the east. This will start temps to slide downward. The marine layer will probably only affect the LA county coast. The ridge will slowly break down Thursday and Friday. The easterly gradients will slowly increase through the period. The coasts will cool to normal values. The vlys and the interior will cool as well but since the hgts remain at 591 DM max temps there will remain above normal. Both the EC and GFS show no sign of monsoon moisture making far enough westward to affect L.A. county. && .AVIATION...26/1800Z. At 1724Z at KLAX...The marine layer was about 1050 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 2740 feet with a temperature of about 30 degrees Celsius. Limited marine cloud coverage due to a fairly shallow marine layer will continue through Monday. There is good confidence in the 18z TAF package. A persistent marine cloud pattern is expected into Monday with marine clouds likely affecting the same locations as this morning. KLAX...A sea breeze is pushing the marine clouds across the western portion of the airfield this afternoon at times and this may continue into the late evening when the low clouds move in again for good. There is a 30 percent chance that the low clouds may move in by early evening. IFR conditions are expected tonight into Monday morning. KBUR...High confidence in the 18z TAF forecast as VFR conditions will persist into Monday. && .MARINE...26/900 AM... Northwest winds will remain strong across the outer waters and the Small Craft Advisories for the area have been extended. The stronger winds will continue through Tuesday and likely beyond for the northern and central outer waters. For the southern outer waters...the winds will dip below Small Craft Advisory levels at times but will be near criteria through at least early tomorrow morning. For the inner waters... northwest winds will be strongest each afternoon and evening over the next few days with a thirty percent chance of gusts reaching advisory levels north of Point Conception. For the southern inner waters... winds will remain below advisory levels through early next week. There is a slight chance of gusts reaching advisory levels across western sections each afternoon and evening... especially across the western Santa Barbara Channel. Locally dense fog will occur across the coastal waters this morning...especially south of Point Conception. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon For zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday For zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Hall AVIATION...Sweet MARINE...Sweet SYNOPSIS...Munroe weather.gov/losangeles
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1002 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The warming trend will continue with afternoon temperatures peaking through Wednesday then cooling slightly into the weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal through the week. Patchy overnight and morning fog is possible primarily south of Point Conception. && .UPDATE... The latest visible imagery indicates marine layer stratus well entrenched along the beaches this morning. The current marine layer depth is around 700 feet on the latest KLAX AMDAR soundings. With the tight marine inversion, the stratus will likely struggle could struggle to pull away from the coast this afternoon. Some clouds should be expected to hang near the coastline this afternoon. Outside of the marine layer, the air mass will continue to warm up. Onshore flow is weakening this morning as high pressure over the Four Corners region strengthens and expands westward. A hot air mass will be in place for early this week. The heat could turn dangerously hot over the next couple of days. Heat index values look to fall short of criteria today, but a tick up in the humidity could increase heat index values to critical levels. Model solutions are starting to pick up on the moisture over Southeast Arizona this morning and pushing northwestward into Southern California on Monday. This could enough of a bump to push heat index values higher on Monday and maybe bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to San Gabriel Mountains. PoPs will likely be increased for Monday and Monday evening, but data will be monitored for changes. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Really not much change in the forecast for Monday. Maybe a little more mid level moisture. Maybe a little more humid at low levels. Do have to watch the low level RH though because if it comes in just a little higher than fcst a few areas will see heat index values sufficiently high for Heat Warnings. Still hot everywhere except the beaches. Large upper high to the east really does not change much Tuesday. Hgts remain near 594 DM. There does not look like there will be much an eddy and the low clouds should only affect the L.A. coast. There are slight onshore trends in the SFC grads both to the north and east and this will allow for a few degrees of cooling across the coasts and to a lesser degree the vlys, The interior will continue to sizzle. LONG TERM...On Wednesday the closed upper high is forecast to weaken into a ridge and slide slowly to the east. This will start temps to slide downward. The marine layer will probably only affect the LA county coast. The ridge will slowly break down Thursday and Friday. The easterly gradients will slowly increase through the period. The coasts will cool to normal values. The vlys and the interior will cool as well but since the hgts remain at 591 DM max temps there will remain above normal. Both the EC and GFS show no sign of monsoon moisture making far enough westward to affect L.A. county. && .AVIATION...26/12Z. At 08Z at KLAX...the inversion was about 2950 feet deep. The top was near 4150 feet with a temperature of about 29 degrees Celsius. Overall...Moderate confidence in the 12z TAFs. The reduced confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing...location...and intensity of low cigs and vsbys for coastal and adjacent valley sites. There is a thirty five percent chance that the projected low cigs and/or vsbys in the TAF will not occur...or that low cigs and/or vsbys will occur at coastal sites without them in the TAF. There is a twenty percent chance of low cigs and/or vsbys occuring at KBUR and KVNY through 17Z. Otherwise and elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12z TAF. The reduced confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing and intensity of low cigs and vsbys. There is a thirty five percent chance that low cigs and/or vsbys will not occur. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. The reduced confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in low cigs and vsbys affecting the airport. There is a twenty percent chance of low cigs and/or vsbys through 17Z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE...26/900 AM. Northwest winds will remain strong across the outer waters and the Small Craft Advisories for the area have been extended. The stronger winds will continue through Tuesday and likely beyond for the northern and central outer waters. For the southern outer waters...the winds will dip below Small Craft Advisory levels at times but will be near criteria through at least early tomorrow morning. For the inner waters... northwest winds will be strongest each afternoon and evening over the next few days with a thirty percent chance of gusts reaching advisory levels north of Point Conception. For the southern inner waters... winds will remain below advisory levels through early next week. There is a slight chance of gusts reaching advisory levels across western sections each afternoon and evening... especially across the western Santa Barbara Channel. Locally dense fog will occur across the coastal waters this morning...especially south of Point Conception. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon For zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday For zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Hall/Rorke AVIATION...KJ MARINE...Sweet SYNOPSIS...Munroe weather.gov/losangeles Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1019 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .UPDATE... No major changes are needed to the forecast at this time. Remnant outflow boundary is nearing the northeastern CWA. This feature should serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convective temperatures are around 90-92 degrees which should occur by the early afternoon hours. Coverage of activity looks to be around 30 to 50 percent of the area with the higher concentration across the northern CWA. Some of the stronger storms could produce some gusty winds. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD... Guidance continues to produce isolated -TSRA beginning around 18Z this afternoon near KAUS. With confidence increasing on -TSRA at KAUS, included TEMPO group this afternoon. Activity should wane by nightfall and then VFR expected to prevail through tomorrow night. For KSAT/KSSF...-TSRA should be more isolated and thus left VCTS in the TAF. KDRT may see activity reach the terminals but towards the evening. Not expecting any category changes for either terminals though. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... The Subtropical Ridge is currently centered over the Four Corners region. A surface boundary is forecast to sag to the south into South Central Texas later today. Upward forcing along the boundary will generate showers and thunderstorms later this morning over Central Texas. These will spread to the south and west across South Central Texas this afternoon due solar heating and outflow boundary interactions with the highest POPs along and north of I-10. There is a potential for gusty winds due DCAPE near 1000 j/kg and locally heavy downpours due PWS near 1.9 inches with the strongest storms. Showers and thunderstorms wane this evening with loss of heating. Showers and thunderstorms may develop early to mid Wednesday morning east of I-35 as the front slowly dissipates. Better upward forcing due to solar heating and outflow boundary interactions waits until Wednesday afternoon. Similar to today, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are possible the strongest storms. Highest POPs on Wednesday are from the southern Edwards Plateau to across the Rio Grande Plains to near the Coastal Plains where the deeper moisture lingers. The Subtropical Ridge drifts to the southeast across New Mexico during the day bringing drier air into Central Texas with no POPS there. Near normal temperatures are expected today and Wednesday. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)... The Subtropical Ridge becomes centered over West Central Texas on Thursday bringing drier air aloft and subsidence. However, the seabreeze may generate isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains Thursday afternoon. The Ridge becomes centered over Central Texas on Friday, lingers through the weekend, then splits by Independence Day on Monday, however the axis lingers over South Central Texas. No rain is expected due to warm mid level cap and subsidence. Above normal temperatures are expected through the Independence Day weekend with heat indices possibly becoming elevated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 95 75 96 75 96 / 50 20 10 - - Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 94 73 95 73 95 / 50 20 20 - - New Braunfels Muni Airport 95 74 95 73 96 / 40 20 20 - - Burnet Muni Airport 93 73 93 73 94 / 50 20 10 - - Del Rio Intl Airport 97 76 97 76 99 / 10 20 30 10 - Georgetown Muni Airport 94 74 94 74 95 / 50 20 10 - - Hondo Muni Airport 95 74 95 72 95 / 20 20 20 10 - San Marcos Muni Airport 94 73 93 73 94 / 50 20 20 - - La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 75 93 74 93 / 50 20 20 - 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 94 75 94 75 94 / 30 20 20 - - Stinson Muni Airport 95 76 96 76 96 / 30 20 20 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...17 Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire Public Service/Data Collection...33
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1010 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .DISCUSSION... GPS-Met data and AIRCRAFT soundings indicate atmos over SE Tx more similar to 12Z soundings from LCH which indicate 2-2.2" PWs. Sky remains mclear at 10am...but do anticipate a fairly rapid increase in clouds & storms by early afternoon once readings make it to 89-93F. Atmos should become quite unstable and the possibility of some strong storms exists with winds being the primary threat. Fcst soundings show a fairly distinct inverted-v profile by 21z/4pm. Morning analysis shows diffulent upper flow & will need to keep an eye on eventual position of seabreeze/baybreeze where storm mergers may enhance overall strength and rainfall amounts. Update consisted to mainly minor tweaks to grids to match current obs...the rest is about the same, but did include some iso svr & heavy rain wording for the more susceptible spots. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 92 75 93 75 94 / 60 20 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 92 75 92 75 93 / 60 40 30 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 88 79 89 80 89 / 50 50 40 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 433 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .Discussion... No big changes to the previous grids and forecast this forecast package. An upper ridge will continue to build east in over the Panhandles by Thursday and Friday. Isolated convection this afternoon mainly across the northern and eastern Panhandles should dissipate by late this evening with additional convection tracking southeast across the northern and eastern Panhandles again by Wednesday afternoon and evening. A frontal boundary stretching across southwest Kansas will remain quasi-stationary through Wednesday will push south into the forecast area during the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Chances for convection will increase by late this week and this weekend as the front pushes into the Panhandles. A few storms could become strong to marginally severe with strong and gusty winds along with locally heavy rainfall being the primary threats. && Schneider .Preliminary Point Temps/Pops... Amarillo TX 67 93 68 95 68 / 20 10 10 30 30 Beaver OK 68 96 71 94 67 / 30 20 30 40 50 Boise City OK 65 95 65 90 62 / 20 20 20 40 50 Borger TX 70 96 71 97 70 / 30 10 10 30 30 Boys Ranch TX 67 96 69 97 68 / 30 10 10 30 30 Canyon TX 66 94 68 95 68 / 20 10 10 30 20 Clarendon TX 68 92 69 95 69 / 20 10 10 20 20 Dalhart TX 65 95 67 94 65 / 30 10 10 30 40 Guymon OK 68 97 69 94 66 / 20 20 20 40 50 Hereford TX 66 94 67 95 67 / 20 10 10 30 20 Lipscomb TX 68 95 71 95 68 / 30 20 20 30 40 Pampa TX 68 93 69 94 68 / 30 10 20 30 30 Shamrock TX 69 94 70 96 70 / 30 10 20 20 30 Wellington TX 70 95 71 98 72 / 30 10 10 20 20 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 9/11
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 358 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)... A mid/upper level ridge is helping to push a weak boundary southward across E TX this afternoon. This boundary is expectd to drift into the NE CWA through the late afternoon/evening hours. PWATs of around 2 inches are pooling along this boundary and combining with strong low level convergence, which is resulting in sct convection. Kept a 30 pop across the NE CWA for this afternoon and evening to account for this convection moving into the VCT Crossroads. Given a drier mid layer, strong wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms. However, am not expecting severe weather due to some inhibition from the ridge aloft. With the loss of daytime heating, the better chances shift more over the coastal waters by late evening. Chances then increase across the entire CWA by Wed as the weak boundary drifts or stalls across the area. The best chance of tsra`s is expected to be along the coastal counties and over the waters through Wed afternoon due to the placement of the deepest moisture and strongest convergence. Therefore went with a 40 POP for those areas. The better tsra chances then shift offshore by Wed night as the mid level ridge builds farther south across S TX. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Deterministic output continues to build the upper ridge over the CWA/MSA during the period which will result in increasing subsidence/drying. NAM deterministic maintains PWAT values near/above normal over the CWA until Saturday. Will reflect the decreasing chance for convection with a forecast of SCT convection over the ERN CWA/MSA Thursday to no significant activity over the CWA/MSA Saturday (generally consistent with GFS ensemble mean QPF/superblend POPs.) The upper pattern transitions (per GFS ensemble mean) to one characterized by a E-W oriented ridge across the SRN CONUS with quasi-zonal flow over the NRN CONUS. This pattern would be conducive to persist onshore flow (SCEC conditions anticipated over the MSA Saturday/Sunday) which may maintain near normal PWAT values over the CWA (GFS deterministic) yet increasing afternoon CIN values/upper ridge may suppress convection (lack of GFS ensemble mean QPF also adds credence.) Thus...no precipitation anticipated Sunday-Tuesday. Anticipate max heat index values at least 105-109F over the CWA. Added patchy fog to early Friday morning to the CNTRL CWA owing to SREF VIS probabilities and physically consistent with drying aloft/near surface moisture. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 94 75 93 77 / 20 40 10 20 10 Victoria 74 94 74 93 74 / 30 30 10 20 10 Laredo 77 101 77 100 78 / 10 30 10 10 0 Alice 73 96 73 97 75 / 10 30 10 10 10 Rockport 78 92 78 90 80 / 30 40 20 30 10 Cotulla 75 99 75 99 76 / 10 30 10 10 0 Kingsville 75 94 75 96 76 / 10 30 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 79 91 79 89 80 / 20 40 10 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ TE/81...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX 348 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Wednesday) The bulk of the scattered showers and thunderstorm activity so far this afternoon is northeast of a Sterling City to Paint Rock to Junction line, with new convective development and general motion slowly to the south and southwest. This will continue through late afternoon, with showers and storms gradually dissipating during the evening. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and possibly small hail will accompany the stronger storms. The airmass remains rather moist with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches across most of our area. Locally heavy rainfall could cause minor flooding in poor drainage places. Decreasing cloud cover is expected tonight. Boundary layer moisture does not look supportive of anything more than perhaps a little patchy low cloud development in our southern counties early Wednesday morning. With sufficient clearing and light winds, may have possibility of a little patchy light fog development at some locations which receive rainfall this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the 70-72 degree range. The upper level high over the Four Corners region will shift a bit southeast over the southern Rockies on Wednesday. Rain chances for our area look minimal on Wednesday with an increase in subsidence and a decrease in moisture. Highs are expected to be a degree or two warmer than what occurs today. .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Little change to forecast reasoning through the extended period. The forecast will remain dry for the most part as upper level ridging dominates the region. The medium range models do show a short wave moving across the central Rockies and into the Plains late next weekend and early next week. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms across far northern portions of the Big Country Sunday through Independence Day but confidence regarding rain chances remain low and will keep POPs at 20 percent at this time. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the period, with daytime highs in the mid and upper 90s Thursday through Saturday and mainly upper 90s next Sunday through early next week. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 94 71 95 / 10 10 0 5 San Angelo 71 93 70 95 / 10 10 0 0 Junction 71 94 70 95 / 20 10 5 0 && .SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 19/24
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 328 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .DISCUSSION... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across most of North and Central Texas, especially along and south of I-20. This activity should continue through sunset, gradually tapering off in terms of both coverage and intensity. Areas that have been less affected by thunderstorms remain unstable with over 2000 J/KG of SBCAPE present in an uncapped environment. Very little forcing is required to send parcels above their LFC in this environment, and outflow boundaries from ongoing convection have been more than sufficient for generating new thunderstorms. Strong downburst winds remain the primary hazard with inverted-V profiles in place. The strongest measured wind gusts with this activity have generally been around 40 mph thus far, but an isolated stronger to borderline severe storm cannot be ruled out through late afternoon or early evening. Otherwise, isolated flooding is still a concern with generally slow storm motions of less than 10 mph and efficient rainfall-producing thunderstorms with PWs of around 2 inches across Central TX. Overnight will be quiet and dry as activity loses fuel from daytime heating and eventually dissipates. The remainder of the week looks hot and dry as upper ridging builds into the area from the west/southwest. An upper trough is forecast to move into the eastern US, dragging a weak cold front into the Central Plains. This front is expected to stall across parts of KS and OK on Thursday and Friday, bringing numerous chances for showers and storms for areas well to our north. We will need to keep a close eye on this activity as we remain in weak northwest flow aloft, which means there is a low but non-zero chance that some of this activity could skirt our northern tier of counties along the Red River, primarily on Thursday night and Friday morning. Have opted not to include PoPs at this time but will continue to monitor trends in the guidance. At this time, it seems there is little in the way of support for an MCS to either move (or propagate via new cell development) into our area. Steering flow aloft should be weak and the better LLJ and associated moisture transport support for a backbuiding MCS will be displaced to our northwest. The Independence Day weekend looks dry as well, but it should be a couple degrees warmer than Wed-Fri. DFW and Waco seem likely to reach 100 degrees for the first time this year at some point in the next week, although light to calm winds are generally more favorable for seeing the temperature rise rapidly rather than the currently forecast 10-15 mph. Sunday and Monday look like the most likely candidates as 850mb temperatures are forecast to be in the 22-24C range. This is certainly cause for concern with heat index values in excess of 105 expected on both Sunday and Monday, and possibly even on Saturday as well. With conditions near Heat Advisory criteria and many outdoor activities expected for the holiday weekend, heat headlines will likely be needed for this time frame. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon near the Metroplex, and in greater concentration to the southwest in the vicinity of a remnant outflow boundary south of an Eastland to Hillsboro to Athens line. For the Metroplex sites, the present anticipation is for convection to remain more isolated in nature through the remainder of the afternoon hours. For this reason, have opted to prevail VCTS until 22Z to account for some potential upstream development. Will closely monitor convective trends and amend as necessary this afternoon. For the Waco TAF site, somewhat greater convective coverage is expected this afternoon. Given the well-mixed nature of the boundary layer, any storms will be capable of producing brief strong wind gusts. Convection will wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with a slight veering of the surface flow tomorrow mid-morning with winds becoming east or east-southeast. Carlaw && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 98 78 98 79 / 10 10 10 5 5 Waco 75 97 76 97 76 / 20 10 5 5 5 Paris 73 95 73 96 74 / 10 10 10 5 5 Denton 73 95 74 96 75 / 10 10 10 5 5 McKinney 73 95 73 95 75 / 10 10 10 5 5 Dallas 78 98 79 98 80 / 10 10 5 5 5 Terrell 73 95 74 96 76 / 10 10 5 5 5 Corsicana 74 96 75 97 76 / 20 10 5 5 5 Temple 73 95 75 96 74 / 20 10 5 5 5 Mineral Wells 72 94 71 97 73 / 10 10 5 5 5 && .FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 90/77
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 218 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Plenty of moisture and instability across the Borderland with Gulf moisture and an passing disturbance tracking into the area. This will mean scattered showers and thunderstorms with some areas of heavy rain possible into the overnight hours. With the increased moisture expect more clouds with cooler but humid conditions. Moisture shifts west to Arizona for warmer conditions and lesser chances for rain and storms for Thursday. The moisture sweeps back across the region for increased rain chances late Friday into Saturday. Finally, we dry back out again and see very warm conditions for July the fourth and beyond. && .DISCUSSION... Plenty of convective activity across the eastern 1/2 of the CWA so far today as a wave of Gulf moisture moves in on easterly winds. Aiding the the shower/storm development is an upper-level disturbance tracking west under the base of the upper high to our north. Clouds and resultant cooler temps has tempered the strength of our storms, but expect storms to persist well into the evening/ nighttime hours given the instability aloft. PW`s are well above normal and well above 1" so the possibility of heavy rain/flash flooding is in play this aftn/eve. Looking forward the inverted wave passing to our south will continue west and hold over S AZ/N Sonora as the upper high shifts east over our area. This will result in a short-term drying from east to west as the main moisture channel focuses over far W NM and E AZ. Thus for WED...storm/rain chances diminish (but remain) over zones E of Rio...stay scattered over zones W of Rio. Thursday looks quite similar to WED for the CWFA with storms more likely west and mountains...and generally dry E and Central lowlands (but with slight chances all areas. Friday the stalled low over SW AZ looks to open and track ENE over NW New Mexico as a flatter westerly flow pattern sets up over the western U.S. This will shift the moisture channel back over our area Friday afternoon through Saturday and allow for some instability aloft with the passing trough. Should go back to scattered storms area wide for FRI aftn through SAT aftn. Another shot at heavy rain for this period as atmospheric moisture will be high again. Finally, to finish out this 7-day package we start a transition back to ridging aloft building to our west. This begins to nudge the moisture east with drying and warming west. However models suggest residual moisture hung up over the region under the high with no means of evacuating it. Thus hot days and a daily buildup of heat instability for isolated aftn/eve storms, favoring higher terrain. High temps do look to be near 100 for MON and TUE. 14-Bird && .AVIATION...Valid 29/00Z-30/00Z. Plentiful moisture along with a weak upper disturbance passing to the south will result in scattered showers and storms through much of the evening hours. Look for mostly VFR conditions to continue through the period. Initially expect VCSH FEW-SCT040-060 SCT-BKN080- 100 BKN-OVC250. After 12Z FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN250. Winds will generally be southeast at speeds of 12 knots or less through the period. 27-Laney && .FIRE WEATHER... Shower and storm coverage will decrease the next few days as the moisture plume shifts west and high pressure strengthens over Texas. Western zones will see the best chance for wetting precip through Thursday. Meanwhile an approaching disturbance will help bring the moisture plume back over us as we approach the weekend increasing rain potential for all zones. Temps should run just a bit below normal the next several days with moisture levels staying elevated. This will result in min RH values staying above 20 percent this week with very good recoveries continuing each evening. The area should begin to dry out early next week allowing for lower RH values and warmer daytime temps. 27-Laney && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 94 72 95 / 30 10 10 20 Sierra Blanca 65 89 67 91 / 30 0 0 10 Las Cruces 66 92 69 93 / 30 10 20 20 Alamogordo 66 93 69 94 / 20 20 20 30 Cloudcroft 53 69 53 72 / 30 40 30 50 Truth or Consequences 66 90 68 91 / 30 20 20 30 Silver City 62 86 63 85 / 30 40 40 40 Deming 67 92 69 93 / 30 10 20 20 Lordsburg 67 92 68 89 / 30 30 30 30 West El Paso Metro 72 94 73 95 / 30 10 10 20 Dell City 64 93 66 95 / 20 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 70 93 72 95 / 30 0 0 10 Loma Linda 64 89 68 90 / 30 10 0 20 Fabens 68 94 71 95 / 30 10 10 20 Santa Teresa 69 93 71 95 / 30 10 10 20 White Sands HQ 68 92 71 93 / 30 10 10 20 Jornada Range 62 91 66 93 / 30 10 20 20 Hatch 65 94 68 95 / 30 10 20 20 Columbus 68 93 70 94 / 30 10 20 30 Orogrande 68 92 71 94 / 30 10 20 30 Mayhill 52 78 55 80 / 30 30 20 40 Mescalero 52 79 55 81 / 30 30 30 40 Timberon 51 77 54 79 / 30 30 30 40 Winston 53 83 56 82 / 30 40 20 50 Hillsboro 60 90 64 89 / 30 30 20 40 Spaceport 64 91 68 92 / 30 10 20 20 Lake Roberts 52 87 53 86 / 30 50 40 60 Hurley 61 87 63 86 / 30 30 30 40 Cliff 60 91 58 89 / 30 40 40 40 Mule Creek 58 91 53 86 / 30 40 40 50 Faywood 61 89 63 89 / 30 20 30 30 Animas 66 93 68 90 / 30 30 30 40 Hachita 65 92 67 91 / 30 20 30 30 Antelope Wells 64 90 65 88 / 30 30 30 50 Cloverdale 62 88 63 83 / 30 30 40 50 && .EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 14/27
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 218 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Plenty of moisture and instability across the Borderland with Gulf moisture and an passing disturbance tracking into the area. This will mean scattered showers and thunderstorms with some areas of heavy rain possible into the overnight hours. With the increased moisture expect more clouds with cooler but humid conditions. Moisture shifts west to Arizona for warmer conditions and lesser chances for rain and storms for Thursday. The moisture sweeps back across the region for increased rain chances late Friday into Saturday. Finally, we dry back out again and see very warm conditions for July the fourth and beyond. && .DISCUSSION... Plenty of convective activity across the eastern 1/2 of the CWA so far today as a wave of Gulf moisture moves in on easterly winds. Aiding the the shower/storm development is an upper-level disturbance tracking west under the base of the upper high to our north. Clouds and resultant cooler temps has tempered the strength of our storms, but expect storms to persist well into the evening/ nighttime hours given the instability aloft. PW`s are well above normal and well above 1" so the possibility of heavy rain/flash flooding is in play this aftn/eve. Looking forward the inverted wave passing to our south will continue west and hold over S AZ/N Sonora as the upper high shifts east over our area. This will result in a short-term drying from east to west as the main moisture channel focuses over far W NM and E AZ. Thus for WED...storm/rain chances diminish (but remain) over zones E of Rio...stay scattered over zones W of Rio. Thursday looks quite similar to WED for the CWFA with storms more likely west and mountains...and generally dry E and Central lowlands (but with slight chances all areas. Friday the stalled low over SW AZ looks to open and track ENE over NW New Mexico as a flatter westerly flow pattern sets up over the western U.S. This will shift the moisture channel back over our area Friday afternoon through Saturday and allow for some instability aloft with the passing trough. Should go back to scattered storms area wide for FRI aftn through SAT aftn. Another shot at heavy rain for this period as atmospheric moisture will be high again. Finally, to finish out this 7-day package we start a transition back to ridging aloft building to our west. This begins to nudge the moisture east with drying and warming west. However models suggest residual moisture hung up over the region under the high with no means of evacuating it. Thus hot days and a daily buildup of heat instability for isolated aftn/eve storms, favoring higher terrain. High temps do look to be near 100 for MON and TUE. 14-Bird && .AVIATION...Valid 29/00Z-30/00Z. Plentiful moisture along with a weak upper disturbance passing to the south will result in scattered showers and storms through much of the evening hours. Look for mostly VFR conditions to continue through the period. Initially expect VCSH FEW-SCT040-060 SCT-BKN080- 100 BKN-OVC250. After 12Z FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN250. Winds will generally be southeast at speeds of 12 knots or less through the period. 27-Laney && .FIRE WEATHER... Shower and storm coverage will decrease the next few days as the moisture plume shifts west and high pressure strengthens over Texas. Western zones will see the best chance for wetting precip through Thursday. Meanwhile an approaching disturbance will help bring the moisture plume back over us as we approach the weekend increasing rain potential for all zones. Temps should run just a bit below normal the next several days with moisture levels staying elevated. This will result in min RH values staying above 20 percent this week with very good recoveries continuing each evening. The area should begin to dry out early next week allowing for lower RH values and warmer daytime temps. 27-Laney && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 94 72 95 / 30 10 10 20 Sierra Blanca 65 89 67 91 / 30 0 0 10 Las Cruces 66 92 69 93 / 30 10 20 20 Alamogordo 66 93 69 94 / 20 20 20 30 Cloudcroft 53 69 53 72 / 30 40 30 50 Truth or Consequences 66 90 68 91 / 30 20 20 30 Silver City 62 86 63 85 / 30 40 40 40 Deming 67 92 69 93 / 30 10 20 20 Lordsburg 67 92 68 89 / 30 30 30 30 West El Paso Metro 72 94 73 95 / 30 10 10 20 Dell City 64 93 66 95 / 20 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 70 93 72 95 / 30 0 0 10 Loma Linda 64 89 68 90 / 30 10 0 20 Fabens 68 94 71 95 / 30 10 10 20 Santa Teresa 69 93 71 95 / 30 10 10 20 White Sands HQ 68 92 71 93 / 30 10 10 20 Jornada Range 62 91 66 93 / 30 10 20 20 Hatch 65 94 68 95 / 30 10 20 20 Columbus 68 93 70 94 / 30 10 20 30 Orogrande 68 92 71 94 / 30 10 20 30 Mayhill 52 78 55 80 / 30 30 20 40 Mescalero 52 79 55 81 / 30 30 30 40 Timberon 51 77 54 79 / 30 30 30 40 Winston 53 83 56 82 / 30 40 20 50 Hillsboro 60 90 64 89 / 30 30 20 40 Spaceport 64 91 68 92 / 30 10 20 20 Lake Roberts 52 87 53 86 / 30 50 40 60 Hurley 61 87 63 86 / 30 30 30 40 Cliff 60 91 58 89 / 30 40 40 40 Mule Creek 58 91 53 86 / 30 40 40 50 Faywood 61 89 63 89 / 30 20 30 30 Animas 66 93 68 90 / 30 30 30 40 Hachita 65 92 67 91 / 30 20 30 30 Antelope Wells 64 90 65 88 / 30 30 30 50 Cloverdale 62 88 63 83 / 30 30 40 50 && .EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 14/27
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SHORT TERM... Scattered thunderstorms have developed in unstable weakly capped atmosphere this afternoon in area of moisture convergence in two areas...SW South Plains...and in the southern Rolling Plains. With weak instability (500-1000 J/kg CAPE)...severe potential will be limited...but slow moving storms...at 5-10 knots...will likely produce a few showers with brief heavy rain and lower visibilites and ponding of water of roadways. Not impossible to see some small hail but unlikely with the majority of cells. Kept pops up in the 00z-06z time frame to account for activity persisting for at least a couple of hours beyond 00z. Some hi res models...namely the HRRR...has been consistently showing some storms or even a complex coming south out of Panhandle perhaps into the central South Plains toward 06z this evening. RAP is similar but a few hours earlier with this idea. Less convective activity on Wednesday...presumably due to a decent inversion developing between 500-600 mb. A degree or two warmer Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid 90s after humid morning lows in the mid 60s to near 70. .LONG TERM... A fairly benign and warm patter will persist into next week. The upper ridge currently northwest of the FA will slowly push southeastward and flatten by late week. The West Texas Region will be close to the center of the upper ridge which is reflected in the temp forecast. Highs will be getting back into the upper 90s/approaching 100 by the end of the weekend. Being close to the center of the upper high will allow little in the way of relief by rainfall. The best bet going into the weekend will be a stalling front late Thursday into Friday. As of right now chances of that keep looking more slim by the model run. All models keep the front stalled across the central to northern Texas Panhandle. The next best shot for rain will come early Sunday as models prog a weak shortwave pushing across the central Rockies and brings in a sliver of monsoonal moisture from the southwest. This will at least bring a slight reprieve from hotter temps as highs should be close to the upper 80s on Independence Day, of course this is dependent upon cloud and rain coverage. The eastern Rolling Plains would still get into the mid/upper 90s. Beyond Monday models diverge with the upper level pattern. The GFS build the upper high back over the Four Corners region leaving us in northwesterly flow favoring a wet pattern. The ECMWF keeps the high over the southern CONUS while favoring precip in the form of various surface trofs. Aldrich && .LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 06/51
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SHORT TERM... Scattered thunderstorms have developed in unstable weakly capped atmosphere this afternoon in area of moisture convergence in two areas...SW South Plains...and in the southern Rolling Plains. With weak instability (500-1000 J/kg CAPE)...severe potential will be limited...but slow moving storms...at 5-10 knots...will likely produce a few showers with brief heavy rain and lower visibilites and ponding of water of roadways. Not impossible to see some small hail but unlikely with the majority of cells. Kept pops up in the 00z-06z time frame to account for activity persisting for at least a couple of hours beyond 00z. Some hi res models...namely the HRRR...has been consistently showing some storms or even a complex coming south out of Panhandle perhaps into the central South Plains toward 06z this evening. RAP is similar but a few hours earlier with this idea. Less convective activity on Wednesday...presumably due to a decent inversion developing between 500-600 mb. A degree or two warmer Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid 90s after humid morning lows in the mid 60s to near 70. .LONG TERM... A fairly benign and warm patter will persist into next week. The upper ridge currently northwest of the FA will slowly push southeastward and flatten by late week. The West Texas Region will be close to the center of the upper ridge which is reflected in the temp forecast. Highs will be getting back into the upper 90s/approaching 100 by the end of the weekend. Being close to the center of the upper high will allow little in the way of relief by rainfall. The best bet going into the weekend will be a stalling front late Thursday into Friday. As of right now chances of that keep looking more slim by the model run. All models keep the front stalled across the central to northern Texas Panhandle. The next best shot for rain will come early Sunday as models prog a weak shortwave pushing across the central Rockies and brings in a sliver of monsoonal moisture from the southwest. This will at least bring a slight reprieve from hotter temps as highs should be close to the upper 80s on Independence Day, of course this is dependent upon cloud and rain coverage. The eastern Rolling Plains would still get into the mid/upper 90s. Beyond Monday models diverge with the upper level pattern. The GFS build the upper high back over the Four Corners region leaving us in northwesterly flow favoring a wet pattern. The ECMWF keeps the high over the southern CONUS while favoring precip in the form of various surface trofs. Aldrich && .LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 06/51
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX 252 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Overall, a high-pressure ridge axis aloft stretching back toward the Four Corners region continues to dominate the region. Lower-level moisture yielded a precipitable water value of 1.91" on the 12Z BRO sounding, and convergence along the seabreeze front has provided enough forcing to pop isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the southeastern counties, thus far today. Showers/storms should continue to propagate westward, reaching the McAllen metro area around 4-5pm, and then dissipating by sunset. Areal coverage to remain limited, though, as drier air aloft can be seen on water- vapor imagery working into the region from the north at this time. Tonight, clear skies and light winds will also contribute to some patchy fog developing over the northern ranchlands and brush country, but should mainly stay out of the mid- lower Rio Grande Valley. Also for later tonight into Wednesday, both NAM and GFS indicate that an old surface shear line/mid-level vorticity lobe currently over East Texas will sag into the area. Moisture pooling along the boundary will allow precipitable water to recover to near 2.0" for the coastal areas and offshore waters. Bumped up shower chances a bit for the morning hours Wednesday (but still isolated) and then into low-end scattered PoP`s for areas generally east of Hwy. 281/69C in the afternoon as sea-breeze forcing kicks in. Wednesday night should be mainly quiet weather-wise. Both max and min temps look to remain with a degree or two of climatological normals in the short-term. Heat indices on Wednesday will reach 102-107 degrees most areas. .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): A strong 500mb ridge will build and remain over Texas and across the western Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period. Subsidence and dry air aloft will generally maintain rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas. However, the combination of a mid level weakness over the north central Gulf of Mexico and increase moisture may support some coastal convection on Thursday. Breezy south-southeast winds develop by the weekend as the temperature gradient strengthens. This will also allow for dewpoints to increase the heat indices across the area. Heat index values will approach and may exceed 110 degrees this weekend. Heat advisories may be needed for portions of Deep South Texas this holiday weekend into early next week. && .MARINE: Tonight through Wednesday night...While isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the marine areas for the next 36 hours, otherwise tranquil marine conditions will continue to dominate. Weak pressure gradient across the northwest Gulf will keep winds no higher than 10 knots, which will keep seas 2 feet or less. Thursday through Sunday...Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas Thursday will steadily increase by the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens. Increasing winds and building seas are expected to reach possible small craft advisory conditions over the Laguna Madre and offshore Gulf waters this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 90 78 93 / 10 30 10 10 BROWNSVILLE 76 94 77 94 / 10 30 10 10 HARLINGEN 75 95 75 96 / 10 30 10 10 MCALLEN 76 97 76 98 / 10 20 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 101 76 101 / 10 20 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 86 81 86 / 10 20 10 10 && .BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 53/63
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX 252 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Overall, a high-pressure ridge axis aloft stretching back toward the Four Corners region continues to dominate the region. Lower-level moisture yielded a precipitable water value of 1.91" on the 12Z BRO sounding, and convergence along the seabreeze front has provided enough forcing to pop isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the southeastern counties, thus far today. Showers/storms should continue to propagate westward, reaching the McAllen metro area around 4-5pm, and then dissipating by sunset. Areal coverage to remain limited, though, as drier air aloft can be seen on water- vapor imagery working into the region from the north at this time. Tonight, clear skies and light winds will also contribute to some patchy fog developing over the northern ranchlands and brush country, but should mainly stay out of the mid- lower Rio Grande Valley. Also for later tonight into Wednesday, both NAM and GFS indicate that an old surface shear line/mid-level vorticity lobe currently over East Texas will sag into the area. Moisture pooling along the boundary will allow precipitable water to recover to near 2.0" for the coastal areas and offshore waters. Bumped up shower chances a bit for the morning hours Wednesday (but still isolated) and then into low-end scattered PoP`s for areas generally east of Hwy. 281/69C in the afternoon as sea-breeze forcing kicks in. Wednesday night should be mainly quiet weather-wise. Both max and min temps look to remain with a degree or two of climatological normals in the short-term. Heat indices on Wednesday will reach 102-107 degrees most areas. .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): A strong 500mb ridge will build and remain over Texas and across the western Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period. Subsidence and dry air aloft will generally maintain rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas. However, the combination of a mid level weakness over the north central Gulf of Mexico and increase moisture may support some coastal convection on Thursday. Breezy south-southeast winds develop by the weekend as the temperature gradient strengthens. This will also allow for dewpoints to increase the heat indices across the area. Heat index values will approach and may exceed 110 degrees this weekend. Heat advisories may be needed for portions of Deep South Texas this holiday weekend into early next week. && .MARINE: Tonight through Wednesday night...While isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the marine areas for the next 36 hours, otherwise tranquil marine conditions will continue to dominate. Weak pressure gradient across the northwest Gulf will keep winds no higher than 10 knots, which will keep seas 2 feet or less. Thursday through Sunday...Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas Thursday will steadily increase by the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens. Increasing winds and building seas are expected to reach possible small craft advisory conditions over the Laguna Madre and offshore Gulf waters this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 90 78 93 / 10 30 10 10 BROWNSVILLE 76 94 77 94 / 10 30 10 10 HARLINGEN 75 95 75 96 / 10 30 10 10 MCALLEN 76 97 76 98 / 10 20 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 101 76 101 / 10 20 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 86 81 86 / 10 20 10 10 && .BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 53/63
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 248 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .DISCUSSION... Complex forecast this evening as widespread showers and tstms roll generally s-sw across southeast TX in advance of large scale cool front sliding swd out of central TX. With moderate CAPE and abundant moisture, storms have been producing some large rainfall rates and localized flooding. Although expect a gradual diminishing trend after sunset across the inland locations, we should still see scattered activity near the front/outflow boundary tonight, especially offshore. Tomorrow will be much less active, although slight chance PoPs will remain for another day or so before hotter and drier weather becomes entrenched over the area by the end of the week and through the holiday weekend. Although rain chances will be low for the holiday break, the hot and humid conditions will bring heat indexes back into the 105-110f range for some areas by Sunday. May need to return to heat advisories by the end of the weekend and early next week. Evans && .MARINE... Light and variable winds and low seas will continue through the end of the week. An onshore flow is expected to return to the area on Thursday but will not begin to strengthen until Friday night or Saturday when low pressure over west Texas begins to deepen. Moderate south winds and elevated seas will persist through the holiday weekend, and caution flags might be needed. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 94 74 95 73 / 20 20 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 76 92 75 94 75 / 40 30 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 79 89 80 89 81 / 50 40 30 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 240 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)... Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop mainly along and north of an outflow boundary. This boundary is currently located along a line near Kerrville to Georgetown to College Station. As this boundary continues to slowly sag southward, the coverage of shower and storm activity should increase as well farther to the south. CAPE values up to 2,000 J/Kg should allow for one or two strong storms with gusty winds being the main hazard. Some locations will likely receive greater than a 1/2 of an inch of rainfall while other locations will receive no rainfall today. The bulk of the activity will decrease in coverage and strength with the loss of day time heating with clear conditions expected after midnight. Low temperatures tonight will bottom out in the lower to middle 70s across much of the area. As the remnant outflow boundary sags southward overnight and tomorrow morning, this should allow most of the shower and storm activity to be confined to the southern half of the area. These storms will once again be primarily diurnally driven within the peak heating hours of the day. Convective temperatures tomorrow will be around 90 degrees and these should be met around the noon to 1 pm hour once again. Highs tomorrow will once again top out in the lower 90s to upper 90s across the area. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... By Thursday, the sub-tropical ridge axis which had been anchored across the southwestern CONUS will shift eastward and remain over Texas before flattening out a bit by late in the weekend. This should allow rain chances to end for all but the extreme southeastern CWA where some weak showers will remain likely in the afternoon hours. This ridge will also cause max/min temperatures to rise a few degrees as well. Heat index values could top 105 degrees again for areas east of the Interstate 35 corridor Sunday through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 95 75 95 75 / 20 20 10 10 - Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 94 72 95 72 / 20 20 10 10 - New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 95 72 95 73 / 20 20 10 10 - Burnet Muni Airport 73 93 73 94 73 / 20 10 10 0 - Del Rio Intl Airport 76 97 76 98 77 / 20 20 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 94 73 94 74 / 20 10 10 10 - Hondo Muni Airport 73 94 72 94 72 / 20 20 10 - 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 93 73 93 72 / 20 20 10 10 - La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 94 74 94 75 / 20 20 10 10 - San Antonio Intl Airport 75 93 75 93 75 / 20 20 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 96 76 96 75 / 20 20 10 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...17 Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire Public Service/Data Collection...33
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 149 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .DISCUSSION... Showers and storms continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of clusters across our region. The first area is across the higher terrain and is associated with the weakening upper low that has moved into northern Mexico. These storms are producing some heavy rain and should continue to move east into the evening hours. The other main area of convection appears to be forming along a weak boundary across the Permian Basin. These storms are moving very slowly south and with daytime heating should continue to develop. Some Hi-Res models show a thunderstorm complex forming near Amarillo this afternoon and part of it moving south toward our region overnight. Although this is a low probability, it is not out of the question due to high amounts of moisture and some instability across the region. Will leave at least some low PoPs in tonight across the northern half of the area. The upper ridge will return by midweek as it builds in from the northwest, though mid level heights won`t be too high. Showers and storms will stay mostly confined to the mountains tomorrow before more extensive drying occurs areawide Thursday. The center of the ridge moves southeast into central and southern Texas late this week allowing for monsoonal moisture to spread across far West Texas and New Mexico. Some of this moisture will spread east across the Permian Basin this weekend so we could see an uptick in showers and storms just in time for the July 4th holiday. Temperatures will increase to near normal tomorrow through the end of the week. High temperature guidance has come down slightly for this weekend, likely due to increasing moisture. For now will stay on the conservative side and continue to keep highs mostly in the 90`s to near 100. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 69 90 69 90 / 10 10 0 10 Carlsbad 68 93 69 96 / 20 10 10 10 Dryden 73 95 74 97 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 69 90 70 94 / 20 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 64 85 66 89 / 20 10 10 10 Hobbs 65 91 66 94 / 10 10 10 10 Marfa 63 84 62 87 / 20 30 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 69 93 70 95 / 10 10 0 10 Odessa 70 92 71 94 / 10 10 0 10 Wink 69 93 70 95 / 10 10 0 10 && .MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 67/29
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX 103 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move slowly to the south-southwest this afternoon. VCTS groups are being carried at the TAF sites. Localized gusty winds, very heavy rain and frequent lightning will be potential aviation hazards. Will monitor radar trends and update as needed. Brief reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible in the heavy rain accompanying the convections. Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate this evening, with a subsequent decrease in cloud cover tonight. While the possibility of a little patchy low cloud development cannot be ruled out over the southern part of our area, low confidence in its occurrence precludes a mention in the TAFs at this time. Outside of convective activity, winds will be generally light and variable. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ AVIATION... /12 TAFS/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon as a weak cold front moves through. Most storms should end by early evening. Have mention of afternoon VCTS at terminals. If storms does move directly over a site, visibilities may briefly fall to IFR in heavy rainfall. VFR conditions are otherwise expected. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will move through West Central Texas late morning and afternoon. Computer models, including the HRRR and Texas Tech 3KM WRF are in good agreement with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing toward daybreak in the the Big Country and after 11 AM along and east of a Sweetwater, San Angelo, Sonora line. Main weather impacts will be localized heavy rainfall/flooding as precipitable waters are around 1.5 inches and storms will slow moving due to weak steering winds. Storms will be diurnal in nature with most storms weakening or dissipating late afternoon. Left a slight chance of evening storms for areas along the I-10 corridor were storms may persist into the evening. Highs today will be in the lower 90s, although convection may kept some areas in the upper 80s. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. 04 LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Independence Day) Broad upper level ridging remains in place across the southwestern CONUS, southeast into Texas. The upper level low moving west/southwest along the southern side of this ridging, and aided in the development of shower/thunderstorms over the weekend will have moved out of the area and weakened by Wednesday. At the same time, the upper level ridge will also begin slowly shifting/expanding into central Texas during the second half of the week. This will result in a drier and warmer forecast late this week into early next week. Will continue the inherited dry forecast from Wednesday into early next week. Temperatures will warm from the lower 90s to around 100 degrees for afternoon highs by next week. Lows will generally be in the lower to mid 70s. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 92 70 93 71 / 40 10 10 5 San Angelo 92 70 93 70 / 30 10 10 0 Junction 93 71 94 70 / 40 20 10 5 && .SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX 1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Showers along with a few embedded lightning strikes have developed along the sea-breeze convergence zone and are currently moving through BRO. General westward motion should have the storm threat clear of BRO by about 1930Z. RAP, HRR, and NAM all suggest that sea-breeze showers and thunderstorms will continue to push inland through the afternoon...though satellite and radar trends are taking most of the activity south of HRL and MFE. For now will go with VCTS at HRL 19-21Z and at MFE 21-00Z but will have to monitor for amendments. Behind the sea-breeze front, VFR with light winds should prevail for the evening and overnight hours at BRO and HRL...with temporary IFR visibility in mist possible for MFE late tonight until just after sunrise. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...Moisture is more limited this morning versus yesterday, so cloud cover is minimal, with streamer showers staying well offshore. Fog in the region is very limited and hovering near the ground at BRO and HRL, and will remain minimal. Winds increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, before returning to light and variable overnight. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday):High pressure continues to dominate the region aloft, stretching into Texas from the northwest. Moisture remains limited as well underneath the edge of the ridge, but the seabreeze will have just enough forcing to pop a few showers during the day. Models noting drying continues today as well, so showers will be even more isolated than on Monday. More sunshine will allow temperatures to soar again, reaching the upper 90s to around 100. On Wednesday, the remnant of a boundary from East Texas will push a surge of moisture into the region. This will get tapped by the seabreeze, with more scattered shower activity possible during peak heating. With slightly more cloud cover, temps will nudge down a degree or two from today. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): Models still on board building a strong mid to upper level high pressure ridge over Texas Thursday and remains anchored across the state and the Western Gulf for the Holiday weekend. Subsidence and drier air above 700mb will keep the rain chances near zero however a moist low level southerly wind will be on the increase. Pressure gradient will be strengthening as the temperatures gradient between the relatively cool gulf waters and the extreme heat over inland Texas. This will allow for dewpoints to inch upward ramping up the heat indices. As outside activities ramp up so will the heat issues as the heat index values approach and exceed 110 degrees this weekend possibly prompting the issuance of heat advisories. MARINE: Today through Wednesday...Tranquil marine conditions dominate the marine locations through the next 36 hours. Weak pressure gradient across the northwest Gulf will keep winds no higher than 10 knots, which will keep seas 2 feet or less. A few streamer showers are possible right away this morning, and are again possible overnight tonight as a surge of moisture arrive from the northeast. Wednesdsay night through Saturday...A light wind regime Thursday gradually increases through the end of the work week then strengthens over the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens. winds and seas are expected to increase with possible small craft advisory conditions over the Laguna Madre and offshore Gulf waters Saturday through Monday. && .BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 53-SCHROEDER/63
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ An outflow boundary is forecast to push across the area this afternoon. This feature will act as a focus for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms especially across the northeast Hill Country including KAUS. As showers and thunderstorms push to the south and southwest later this afternoon and early evening, coverage will diminish from north to south with the loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions are expected through the period across area sites with the exception of short periods as storms move over the KAUS terminal. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ UPDATE... No major changes are needed to the forecast at this time. Remnant outflow boundary is nearing the northeastern CWA. This feature should serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convective temperatures are around 90-92 degrees which should occur by the early afternoon hours. Coverage of activity looks to be around 30 to 50 percent of the area with the higher concentration across the northern CWA. Some of the stronger storms could produce some gusty winds. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD... Guidance continues to produce isolated -TSRA beginning around 18Z this afternoon near KAUS. With confidence increasing on -TSRA at KAUS, included TEMPO group this afternoon. Activity should wane by nightfall and then VFR expected to prevail through tomorrow night. For KSAT/KSSF...-TSRA should be more isolated and thus left VCTS in the TAF. KDRT may see activity reach the terminals but towards the evening. Not expecting any category changes for either terminals though. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... The Subtropical Ridge is currently centered over the Four Corners region. A surface boundary is forecast to sag to the south into South Central Texas later today. Upward forcing along the boundary will generate showers and thunderstorms later this morning over Central Texas. These will spread to the south and west across South Central Texas this afternoon due solar heating and outflow boundary interactions with the highest POPs along and north of I-10. There is a potential for gusty winds due DCAPE near 1000 j/kg and locally heavy downpours due PWS near 1.9 inches with the strongest storms. Showers and thunderstorms wane this evening with loss of heating. Showers and thunderstorms may develop early to mid Wednesday morning east of I-35 as the front slowly dissipates. Better upward forcing due to solar heating and outflow boundary interactions waits until Wednesday afternoon. Similar to today, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are possible the strongest storms. Highest POPs on Wednesday are from the southern Edwards Plateau to across the Rio Grande Plains to near the Coastal Plains where the deeper moisture lingers. The Subtropical Ridge drifts to the southeast across New Mexico during the day bringing drier air into Central Texas with no POPS there. Near normal temperatures are expected today and Wednesday. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)... The Subtropical Ridge becomes centered over West Central Texas on Thursday bringing drier air aloft and subsidence. However, the seabreeze may generate isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains Thursday afternoon. The Ridge becomes centered over Central Texas on Friday, lingers through the weekend, then splits by Independence Day on Monday, however the axis lingers over South Central Texas. No rain is expected due to warm mid level cap and subsidence. Above normal temperatures are expected through the Independence Day weekend with heat indices possibly becoming elevated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 - - 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 95 73 95 73 / 20 20 - - 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 95 73 96 73 / 20 20 - - 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 93 73 94 73 / 20 10 - - 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 97 76 99 77 / 20 30 10 - 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 94 74 95 74 / 20 10 - - 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 95 72 95 73 / 20 20 10 - 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 93 73 94 73 / 20 20 - - 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 93 74 93 74 / 20 20 - 20 - San Antonio Intl Airport 75 94 75 94 75 / 20 20 - - 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 96 76 96 75 / 20 20 - - 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...17 Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire Public Service/Data Collection...33
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ An outflow boundary is forecast to push across the area this afternoon. This feature will act as a focus for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms especially across the northeast Hill Country including KAUS. As showers and thunderstorms push to the south and southwest later this afternoon and early evening, coverage will diminish from north to south with the loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions are expected through the period across area sites with the exception of short periods as storms move over the KAUS terminal. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ UPDATE... No major changes are needed to the forecast at this time. Remnant outflow boundary is nearing the northeastern CWA. This feature should serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convective temperatures are around 90-92 degrees which should occur by the early afternoon hours. Coverage of activity looks to be around 30 to 50 percent of the area with the higher concentration across the northern CWA. Some of the stronger storms could produce some gusty winds. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD... Guidance continues to produce isolated -TSRA beginning around 18Z this afternoon near KAUS. With confidence increasing on -TSRA at KAUS, included TEMPO group this afternoon. Activity should wane by nightfall and then VFR expected to prevail through tomorrow night. For KSAT/KSSF...-TSRA should be more isolated and thus left VCTS in the TAF. KDRT may see activity reach the terminals but towards the evening. Not expecting any category changes for either terminals though. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... The Subtropical Ridge is currently centered over the Four Corners region. A surface boundary is forecast to sag to the south into South Central Texas later today. Upward forcing along the boundary will generate showers and thunderstorms later this morning over Central Texas. These will spread to the south and west across South Central Texas this afternoon due solar heating and outflow boundary interactions with the highest POPs along and north of I-10. There is a potential for gusty winds due DCAPE near 1000 j/kg and locally heavy downpours due PWS near 1.9 inches with the strongest storms. Showers and thunderstorms wane this evening with loss of heating. Showers and thunderstorms may develop early to mid Wednesday morning east of I-35 as the front slowly dissipates. Better upward forcing due to solar heating and outflow boundary interactions waits until Wednesday afternoon. Similar to today, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are possible the strongest storms. Highest POPs on Wednesday are from the southern Edwards Plateau to across the Rio Grande Plains to near the Coastal Plains where the deeper moisture lingers. The Subtropical Ridge drifts to the southeast across New Mexico during the day bringing drier air into Central Texas with no POPS there. Near normal temperatures are expected today and Wednesday. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)... The Subtropical Ridge becomes centered over West Central Texas on Thursday bringing drier air aloft and subsidence. However, the seabreeze may generate isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains Thursday afternoon. The Ridge becomes centered over Central Texas on Friday, lingers through the weekend, then splits by Independence Day on Monday, however the axis lingers over South Central Texas. No rain is expected due to warm mid level cap and subsidence. Above normal temperatures are expected through the Independence Day weekend with heat indices possibly becoming elevated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 - - 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 95 73 95 73 / 20 20 - - 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 95 73 96 73 / 20 20 - - 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 93 73 94 73 / 20 10 - - 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 97 76 99 77 / 20 30 10 - 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 94 74 95 74 / 20 10 - - 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 95 72 95 73 / 20 20 10 - 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 93 73 94 73 / 20 20 - - 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 93 74 93 74 / 20 20 - 20 - San Antonio Intl Airport 75 94 75 94 75 / 20 20 - - 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 96 76 96 75 / 20 20 - - 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...17 Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire Public Service/Data Collection...33
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX 1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Showers along with a few embedded lightning strikes have developed along the sea-breeze convergence zone and are currently moving through BRO. General westward motion should have the storm threat clear of BRO by about 1930Z. RAP, HRR, and NAM all suggest that sea-breeze showers and thunderstorms will continue to push inland through the afternoon...though satellite and radar trends are taking most of the activity south of HRL and MFE. For now will go with VCTS at HRL 19-21Z and at MFE 21-00Z but will have to monitor for amendments. Behind the sea-breeze front, VFR with light winds should prevail for the evening and overnight hours at BRO and HRL...with temporary IFR visibility in mist possible for MFE late tonight until just after sunrise. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...Moisture is more limited this morning versus yesterday, so cloud cover is minimal, with streamer showers staying well offshore. Fog in the region is very limited and hovering near the ground at BRO and HRL, and will remain minimal. Winds increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, before returning to light and variable overnight. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday):High pressure continues to dominate the region aloft, stretching into Texas from the northwest. Moisture remains limited as well underneath the edge of the ridge, but the seabreeze will have just enough forcing to pop a few showers during the day. Models noting drying continues today as well, so showers will be even more isolated than on Monday. More sunshine will allow temperatures to soar again, reaching the upper 90s to around 100. On Wednesday, the remnant of a boundary from East Texas will push a surge of moisture into the region. This will get tapped by the seabreeze, with more scattered shower activity possible during peak heating. With slightly more cloud cover, temps will nudge down a degree or two from today. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): Models still on board building a strong mid to upper level high pressure ridge over Texas Thursday and remains anchored across the state and the Western Gulf for the Holiday weekend. Subsidence and drier air above 700mb will keep the rain chances near zero however a moist low level southerly wind will be on the increase. Pressure gradient will be strengthening as the temperatures gradient between the relatively cool gulf waters and the extreme heat over inland Texas. This will allow for dewpoints to inch upward ramping up the heat indices. As outside activities ramp up so will the heat issues as the heat index values approach and exceed 110 degrees this weekend possibly prompting the issuance of heat advisories. MARINE: Today through Wednesday...Tranquil marine conditions dominate the marine locations through the next 36 hours. Weak pressure gradient across the northwest Gulf will keep winds no higher than 10 knots, which will keep seas 2 feet or less. A few streamer showers are possible right away this morning, and are again possible overnight tonight as a surge of moisture arrive from the northeast. Wednesdsay night through Saturday...A light wind regime Thursday gradually increases through the end of the work week then strengthens over the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens. winds and seas are expected to increase with possible small craft advisory conditions over the Laguna Madre and offshore Gulf waters Saturday through Monday. && .BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 53-SCHROEDER/63
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .AVIATION... Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon near the Metroplex, and in greater concentration to the southwest in the vicinity of a remnant outflow boundary south of an Eastland to Hillsboro to Athens line. For the Metroplex sites, the present anticipation is for convection to remain more isolated in nature through the remainder of the afternoon hours. For this reason, have opted to prevail VCTS until 22Z to account for some potential upstream development. Will closely monitor convective trends and amend as necessary this afternoon. For the Waco TAF site, somewhat greater convective coverage is expected this afternoon. Given the well-mixed nature of the boundary layer, any storms will be capable of producing brief strong wind gusts. Convection will wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with a slight veering of the surface flow tomorrow mid-morning with winds becoming east or east-southeast. Carlaw && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ Minor update this morning to adjust for temperature and sky trends through the afternoon. Rest of the forecast is on track as we are still expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop across most of North and Central TX with the highest coverage expected to be along and south of I-20. The triggering mechanisms for convection this afternoon will consist of a weak frontal zone encroaching on the area from the northeast as well as any residual outflow boundaries from yesteday`s convection. The front, or at least the effective frontal boundary, appears to be in southeastern OK in the process of entering northeast TX. While this feature is difficult to distinguish, it`s effects are most noticeable when analyzing low level moisture fields as well as PW. A sharp PW gradient draped from southern AR through central OK should slowly shift southwestward this afternoon. Areas along and ahead of this gradient in abundant moisture will have the greatest potential for thunderstorms this afternoon as we become uncapped through daytime heating. Any areas of weak low-level convergence will be capable of initiating isolated thunderstorms, and resultant outflows will then be capable of initiating subsequent convection. Surface based instability of around 2000J/kg will be spread across most of the region with DCAPEs of around 1000-1300 J/KG as profiles take on inverted V characteristics through heating and PBL mixing. In addition, surface to mid-level theta-e differences of around 25K or more could support isolated strong to borderline severe downburst winds with stronger cells. Localized flooding will also be a concern as storm motions will be less than 5 kts once again today. In this regime, small hail is possible but it is generally very difficult to get severe hail in this typical summer regime. Radar hail algorithms can be useful to identify cores aloft as storms initially form with a WER and little reflectivity at low levels, but any hail that may be suspended by the storm aloft either melts completely or melts to below severe limits by the time it reaches the surface. New products for this update have already been transmitted. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 76 97 78 98 / 30 10 10 10 10 Waco 94 76 96 76 97 / 50 20 10 10 10 Paris 94 69 94 73 95 / 20 10 10 10 10 Denton 93 71 94 74 96 / 20 10 10 10 10 McKinney 93 73 94 72 96 / 20 10 10 10 10 Dallas 95 76 96 79 99 / 30 10 10 10 10 Terrell 94 73 94 74 96 / 30 10 10 10 10 Corsicana 94 75 95 75 97 / 40 20 10 10 10 Temple 92 75 95 75 96 / 50 20 10 10 10 Mineral Wells 93 70 94 70 97 / 30 10 10 10 10 && .FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 90/77
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .Aviation...18z tafs Predominately VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will again be possible today, but coverage is expected to be limited and therefore no mention of thunder was included. Simpson && .Prev Discussion... /Issued 614 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ Aviation.../For the 12z TAFs/ Convection over southeast Colorado has developed slowly south into the far western Oklahoma Panhandle and may enhance northerly surface winds through at least mid morning at Dalhart and Guymon. Winds should then become southeasterly but remain light until overnight when they veer to southwesterly and increase to around 12 knots or slightly higher. Thunderstorms may approach Guymon within a couple hours but confidence in this happening at Dalhart is a little less certain. We will monitor trends and make amendments as necessary. Afternoon diurnally driven convection is expected to be too isolated for prevailing in the TAFs at this time. BRB Prev Discussion... /Issued 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ Discussion... Mid-level ridge centered near 4-corners expected to maintain weak northwest flow into Panhandles through Wednesday night. Flow then transitions to near zonal Thursday through Friday. Models then suggest that slightly stronger flow will direct a series of shortwave trofs through the forecast area Friday night through Monday. A cold front could enter northern sections as early as Thursday afternoon. This feature is likely to remain in the area through Sunday, with convection to its north dictating its southernmost intrusion. Considerable uncertainty regarding daily position of cold front, with trickle-down uncertainty regarding high temperatures and precipitation potential. Pops generally highest in northern sections, where front expected to be during most periods. High temperatures expected to be fairly close to climo through Sunday, with return to 100 degree maxima forecast for Monday. Cockrell && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 9/11
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1229 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below for the 18Z TAF`s. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through the much of the TAF period. The exception will be around ALI where MVFR, possibly IFR, conditions are expected to dvlp late tonight due to low stratus and patchy fog. Winds will be light and vrb overnight into Wed morning. A weak frontal boundary is expected to drift across the VCT area overnight resulting in sfc winds having a more northerly component. In addition, isold to sct shra/tsra`s will be possible late this afternoon across the VCT area, then again early Wed morning for both VCT and CRP. Any convection that does develop across a TAF site will be brief with minimal aviation impacts expected. The best chance for convection will be across the VCT area. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 941 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ DISCUSSION... Drier air can be seen on water vapor satellite shifting west across the CWA this morning. The 12Z CRP sounding also showed a drier airmass in place. Not expecting much precip through early afternoon, however models prog a weak bdry to drift toward the VCT area through mid to late afternoon with a pool of moisture along it. PWAT`s are progged to be around 2 inches with the bdry, however a ridge aloft should hinder some convective development. Therefore, 20-30 pops for the NE CWA this afternoon looks reasonable. Overall forecast looks on track with no major changes at this time. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ DISCUSSION...Update for 12z Aviation. AVIATION...Patches of bkn low cigs may lead to tempo MVFR conditions thru mid mrng at KLRD...with mainly sunny skies thereafter. KCRP to remain VFR thru the TAF period with Cu field dvlpng today. Areas of BR/FG to impact KVCT/KALI until roughly 13z. MVFR vsbys possible at KVCT with tempo MVFR cigs thru mid mrng as Cu field becomes established. IFR/LIFR vsbys xpctd at KALI early before mixing out/transitioning to Cu field. Mainly dry today as drier air in the H9 to H7 layer pushes across area. However...by late aftn TSRA xpctd to dvlp vcnty KVCT as deeper moisture arrives. Will carry Prob30 for late day convection at KVCT. Convection should diminish this evening...although additional SHRA may dvlp along the coast. Better chances of convection at area terminals to occur Wed. Weak/vrb sfc flow much of TAF period, with period of ESErly sfc winds around 10 kts after sea breeze passage in aftn. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 339 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...GOES WV imagery indicates a drier airmass slowly moving westward across the W Gulf with both NASA SPORT and AMSU derived imagery indicating PWATS of 1.4 to 1.5 inches existing just offshore. This drier airmass should result in a thinner Cu field today across S TX along with hotter temps. With a weak llvl flow /as a weak surface boundary pushes southward/ and little wind of significance off the Gulf /until seabreeze passage/...temps should quickly warm into the 90s by midday with most inland max temps being two to three degrees warmer than Monday/s values. Isolated seabreeze convection should be isolated to nil today given drier airmass. However...by late in the day...a surge of deeper moisture is prog to push SSW out of HGX/s CWA. This deeper moisture...when combined with max heating...should lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late in the afternoon across the NE CWA. An isolated strong storm will be possible with damaging winds being the primary storm threat. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity should continue to push SSW through early evening before diminishing with loss of daytime heating. Overnight...additional isolated to scattered convection may develop along the coast and offshore as deeper moisture overspreads the area and as a weak H5 vorticity lobe slowly advects southward. Am expecting a scattering of showers and thunderstorms across the area during the day Wednesday given higher moisture values and sufficiently cooler H9 to H7 layer temps. Max temps Wed should be a degree or two cooler than today given greater cloud cover and precip. LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Monday)...Not too much change in the rain chances for the long-term. Some residual moisture remains over the eastern areas Thursday, which could be sufficient with daytime heating and still some weakness in the ridge for some isolated/slight chance for convection. By Friday, 700 mb temperatures warm up AOA 10C, and get even warmer for the early part of next week. As a result, do not see much in rain chances especially through the 4th of July holiday weekend since moisture becomes rather limited. In short, it looks like the weekend will be very warm and humid, with afternoon heat indices between 105 and 109 degrees most areas Sunday and the 4th of July. Am expecting a good temperature gradient developing in the afternoon, which means a good sea-breeze but with limited moisture no notable rainfall. However, mariners may experience SCEC or low- end SCA for the weekend and into the 4th of July. Warming trend through the weekend, with temperature topping the century mark most areas west of Highway 281. Warm and muggy during the overnight hours, with many upper 70s, near 80 for the 4th of July holiday weekend. Overall, did not go too different from the Superblend for temperature days 4 to 8 (and a bias-corrected MOS for day 3), except where normal adjustments are needed for the coastal areas using the Superblend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 96 75 94 75 94 / 10 20 30 10 20 Victoria 96 74 94 74 94 / 30 30 30 10 20 Laredo 102 77 101 77 101 / 10 10 30 10 10 Alice 98 73 96 73 97 / 10 10 30 10 10 Rockport 94 78 92 78 91 / 10 30 30 10 20 Cotulla 100 75 99 75 99 / 10 10 30 10 10 Kingsville 95 75 94 75 95 / 10 10 30 10 10 Navy Corpus 92 79 91 79 91 / 10 20 30 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ TE/81...AVIATION
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1228 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .AVIATION... SHRA/TSRA beginning to develop. Will carry VCTS at all TAF sites with a TEMPO from 18-22z. Have added a wind gust group at all TAF sites as well since fcst soundings show an inverted V signature. Fcst soundings continue to advertise PW values in excess of 2.00 inches so vsby may fall below 3 miles in some spots in heavy rain. Precip should end around 02z with additional SHRA possible near the coast toward sunrise. Generally VFR conds expected outside of areas with convection. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / DISCUSSION... GPS-Met data and AIRCRAFT soundings indicate atmos over SE Tx more similar to 12Z soundings from LCH which indicate 2-2.2" PWs. Sky remains mclear at 10am...but do anticipate a fairly rapid increase in clouds & storms by early afternoon once readings make it to 89-93F. Atmos should become quite unstable and the possibility of some strong storms exists with winds being the primary threat. Fcst soundings show a fairly distinct inverted-v profile by 21z/4pm. Morning analysis shows diffulent upper flow & will need to keep an eye on eventual position of seabreeze/baybreeze where storm mergers may enhance overall strength and rainfall amounts. Update consisted to mainly minor tweaks to grids to match current obs...the rest is about the same, but did include some iso svr & heavy rain wording for the more susceptible spots. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 92 75 93 75 94 / 60 20 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 92 75 92 75 93 / 60 40 30 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 88 79 89 80 89 / 50 50 40 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...47 Aviation/Marine...43