Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/26/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1048 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Temperatures have cooled a little quicker than expected this
evening, but expecting this trend to slow as dewpoints remain in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Patchy river valley fog still in play
tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Dissipation of diurnal cumulus field will yield clear skies
overnight as surface ridge moves off to the east. That being said,
not anticipating much in the way of widespread fog development
tonight as crossover temperatures were largely able to drop into
the low-mid 60s this afternoon. Exception to this was across
portions of northeastern and far eastern Kentucky where greater
rainfall amounts were observed Thursday. Patchy development still
looks probable in deeper river valleys overnight into Sunday
morning in a decoupled environment.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface analysis indicates high pressure centered across the Mid
Atlantic with broad surface high stretching south into the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. This along with rising heights will lead
to tranquil conditions across eastern Kentucky. We have seen some
diurnally driven CU this afternoon but these will die off as we
loose the afternoon heating. Speaking of heating as 592 height has
spread back northeast and we have seen temperatures warm back into
the mid to upper 80s. Therefore overall forecast looks on track
through the evening.

Tonight the surface high will continue to control as it gradual
shift south and east. Models seem to be less robust on the fog
potential tonight and therefore scaled that back from previous
night. Right now seems like best chances will be in the deeper
river valleys. Otherwise temps are expected to bottom out in the
mid to upper 60s.

Sunday into Sunday night attention begins to focus on a generally
weak front that will slowly progress east through the latter part
of the short term period. Sunday as surface high moves east
additional return flow sets in and we see continued warm air
advection. Temps respond by topping out in the upper 80s and lower
90s. Overall most spots should remain dry on Sunday, but can not
rule out some slight pops in the west/SW due to the rising PWATS
on Sunday afternoon. The GFS would suggest the potential for some
Cumberland Plateau development and these would have the potential
to migrate into the Cumberland River area. Right now the models
are a bit all over the place with precip going into Sunday night.
Right now will lean on a blend approach given the uncertainty, but
the PWATS do increase going toward 12Z which would translate to
decent potential for pops. Blend stuck with chance and for now
that would seem to be the best way tot go. Temps should remain
uniform Sunday given increase in cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 509 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

A cold front will be moving into the region from the northwest as
the period starts. Ample moisture is expected to arrive ahead of
the front to support showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should
peak with daytime heating as the front moves through, and likely
pops have been used area wide. Shear does not look impressive, but
instability could be in the neighborhood of 2K J/Kg, and a few
gusty storms can not be ruled out. The bigger threat could be
heavy rainfall, since steering currents will be relatively weak
and precipitable H2O is expected to peak near 2". Most of the
precip will move out Monday evening as the effective front and
deep moisture settle to our south.

Drier air will take a while to make its way in at the surface, but
as surface high pressure slowly moves in from the northwest under
an amplifying eastern CONUS trough, a more comfortable air mass
should finally be realized by midweek. It looks like it will then
hang around through the remainder of the week, but will eventually
start to modify. The ECMWF does generate some light precip, mainly
Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough deepens and a
poorly resolved cold front approaches. The GFS and the GFS
ensemble hold off on most of this precip, and have opted for
silent 10 percent pops in the local forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

VFR conditions expected to persist this evening through Sunday
afternoon. Patchy fog looks to be largely confined to deeper
river valleys as crossover temperatures were able to mix into the
low-mid 60s Saturday afternoon. Portions of northeast and far
eastern Kentucky, who experienced greater amounts of rainfall
Thursday, remained slightly more moist thus perhaps leading to a
better chance of lowering visibilities occurring at higher
elevations. Nonetheless, potential looks to be rather low for sub-
VFR visibilities at this time. Light east/southeast winds this
evening will veer southwesterly Sunday afternoon while remaining
near or below 5 knots. Thunderstorms will begin to nudge eastward
Sunday afternoon, but look to remain low enough in coverage to
warrant nil mention pre-00Z.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 952 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 950 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Dewpoint boundary draped near or just SW of Interstate 24 sparked convection over western Kentucky earlier, but that has mostly dissipated and will not be a factor this far east overnight. Still expecting dewpoints to recover into the lower 70s in many places on Sunday. Forecast is pretty well on track, but with heat index values expected to exceed 100 degrees along and west of I-65, will ratchet up the emphasis on heat in our messaging. .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)... Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday... A warm mostly sunny afternoon is in progress across central KY and south-central IN. Temperatures currently range in the mid 80s to near 90 and will rise a couple/few more degrees late this afternoon. Surface dewpoints generally are mid 60s east and upper 60s west. For tonight, expect a mostly clear sky with light wind and lows in the mid to upper 60s over the Bluegrass to lower 70s in our western forecast area. There could be patchy light fog or haze by daybreak but not enough to include in the forecast at this time. On Sunday, surface winds will become south to southwest which will import more humidity across the region. Expect afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s, along with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s over the Bluegrass region to lower 70s elsewhere. This will result in maximum afternoon heat indices from 95 to 100 east to around 100 west. Skies will be partly sunny. In the heat of the day, isolated diurnal thunderstorms could develop mainly over western and northern areas. Any stray storms should then dissipate in the evening with loss of heating. For Sunday night, a shortwave moving east across the northern Great Lakes states will support a cold front moving southeast over the Ohio Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that develop along and south of the front to our north Sunday afternoon will propagate southeast into southern IN late Sunday evening and parts of central KY overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Surface-based instability will diminish nocturnally but some elevated instability will still exist. Also, wind/shear fields will not be great. Therefore, severe storms are not expected with mainly general shower and thunderstorm activity expected. Precipitable water values are progged to rise to around 2 inches, so this combined with modest instability/CAPE will make for efficient rainfall producers, i.e., some storms could produce high rainfall rates. On Monday, the front will continue to settle southeast across the area. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected, especially over central KY, with precipitation chances diminishing as the day wears on over southern IN. The clouds and rain will keep temperatures down somewhat, although should still rise appreciably through the 80s. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week... The extended period will feature an average mid-level trough position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and eastern states. The front on Monday will clear the region Monday night. Any residual showers over far southeastern parts of our forecast area Monday evening will move out quickly. Expect lows in the 60s. A stronger secondary cold front then will move into and through our area from the north on Tuesday. A band of some clouds may accompany the front but it should move through dry. This front will bring an appreciable change in temperatures and humidity. With surface high pressure building in and remaining in control over the Ohio Valley behind this front, dry weather will prevail with a clear to partly cloudy sky from Tuesday though Friday. High temperatures Tuesday should be in the lower and mid 80s, then only in the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday, before moderating back into the lower and mid 80s Friday afternoon. Low temperatures should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in most areas during the period. To put this in perspective, average normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Besides the cooler temperatures, surface dewpoints also will drop into the 50s by Wednesday which is anonymously low for the end of June. Bottom line, some very pleasant early summer weather is in store Tuesday through Friday next week. By next Saturday, some moisture should return with isolated thunderstorms possible and highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Only anticipated restriction is MVFR visibility in BWG for a few hrs around daybreak. Moisture return already seems to be underway there, but temps do not appear poised to radiate down to the current dewpoint, so will not take it down any lower. Drier column over SDF and LEX will keep those terminals VFR. SW winds will pick up by midday Sun with deeper mixing, but remain just shy of 10 kt. Will limit clouds to diurnal cu and/or developing cirrus. Approaching cold front will get closer to SDF in the planning period, but not high enough probabilities to warrant any precip in the TAF. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........RAS Short Term.....TWF Long Term......TWF Aviation.......RAS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Dissipation of diurnal cumulus field will yield clear skies overnight as surface ridge moves off to the east. That being said, not anticipating much in the way of widespread fog development tonight as crossover temperatures were largely able to drop into the low-mid 60s this afternoon. Exception to this was across portions of northeastern and far eastern Kentucky where greater rainfall amounts were observed Thursday. Patchy development still looks probable in deeper river valleys overnight into Sunday morning in a decoupled environment. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Surface analysis indicates high pressure centered across the Mid Atlantic with broad surface high stretching south into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This along with rising heights will lead to tranquil conditions across eastern Kentucky. We have seen some diurnally driven CU this afternoon but these will die off as we loose the afternoon heating. Speaking of heating as 592 height has spread back northeast and we have seen temperatures warm back into the mid to upper 80s. Therefore overall forecast looks on track through the evening. Tonight the surface high will continue to control as it gradual shift south and east. Models seem to be less robust on the fog potential tonight and therefore scaled that back from previous night. Right now seems like best chances will be in the deeper river valleys. Otherwise temps are expected to bottom out in the mid to upper 60s. Sunday into Sunday night attention begins to focus on a generally weak front that will slowly progress east through the latter part of the short term period. Sunday as surface high moves east additional return flow sets in and we see continued warm air advection. Temps respond by topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overall most spots should remain dry on Sunday, but can not rule out some slight pops in the west/SW due to the rising PWATS on Sunday afternoon. The GFS would suggest the potential for some Cumberland Plateau development and these would have the potential to migrate into the Cumberland River area. Right now the models are a bit all over the place with precip going into Sunday night. Right now will lean on a blend approach given the uncertainty, but the PWATS do increase going toward 12Z which would translate to decent potential for pops. Blend stuck with chance and for now that would seem to be the best way tot go. Temps should remain uniform Sunday given increase in cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 509 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 A cold front will be moving into the region from the northwest as the period starts. Ample moisture is expected to arrive ahead of the front to support showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should peak with daytime heating as the front moves through, and likely pops have been used area wide. Shear does not look impressive, but instability could be in the neighborhood of 2K J/Kg, and a few gusty storms can not be ruled out. The bigger threat could be heavy rainfall, since steering currents will be relatively weak and precipitable H2O is expected to peak near 2". Most of the precip will move out Monday evening as the effective front and deep moisture settle to our south. Drier air will take a while to make its way in at the surface, but as surface high pressure slowly moves in from the northwest under an amplifying eastern CONUS trough, a more comfortable air mass should finally be realized by midweek. It looks like it will then hang around through the remainder of the week, but will eventually start to modify. The ECMWF does generate some light precip, mainly Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough deepens and a poorly resolved cold front approaches. The GFS and the GFS ensemble hold off on most of this precip, and have opted for silent 10 percent pops in the local forecast at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 VFR conditions expected to persist this evening through Sunday afternoon. Patchy fog looks to be largely confined to deeper river valleys as crossover temperatures were able to mix into the low-mid 60s Saturday afternoon. Portions of northeast and far eastern Kentucky, who experienced greater amounts of rainfall Thursday, remained slightly more moist thus perhaps leading to a better chance of lowering visibilities occurring at higher elevations. Nonetheless, potential looks to be rather low for sub- VFR visibilities at this time. Light east/southeast winds this evening will veer southwesterly Sunday afternoon while remaining near or below 5 knots. Thunderstorms will begin to nudge eastward Sunday afternoon, but look to remain low enough in coverage to warrant nil mention pre-00Z. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GUSEMAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Dissipation of diurnal cumulus field will yield clear skies overnight as surface ridge moves off to the east. That being said, not anticipating much in the way of widespread fog development tonight as crossover temperatures were largely able to drop into the low-mid 60s this afternoon. Exception to this was across portions of northeastern and far eastern Kentucky where greater rainfall amounts were observed Thursday. Patchy development still looks probable in deeper river valleys overnight into Sunday morning in a decoupled environment. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Surface analysis indicates high pressure centered across the Mid Atlantic with broad surface high stretching south into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This along with rising heights will lead to tranquil conditions across eastern Kentucky. We have seen some diurnally driven CU this afternoon but these will die off as we loose the afternoon heating. Speaking of heating as 592 height has spread back northeast and we have seen temperatures warm back into the mid to upper 80s. Therefore overall forecast looks on track through the evening. Tonight the surface high will continue to control as it gradual shift south and east. Models seem to be less robust on the fog potential tonight and therefore scaled that back from previous night. Right now seems like best chances will be in the deeper river valleys. Otherwise temps are expected to bottom out in the mid to upper 60s. Sunday into Sunday night attention begins to focus on a generally weak front that will slowly progress east through the latter part of the short term period. Sunday as surface high moves east additional return flow sets in and we see continued warm air advection. Temps respond by topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overall most spots should remain dry on Sunday, but can not rule out some slight pops in the west/SW due to the rising PWATS on Sunday afternoon. The GFS would suggest the potential for some Cumberland Plateau development and these would have the potential to migrate into the Cumberland River area. Right now the models are a bit all over the place with precip going into Sunday night. Right now will lean on a blend approach given the uncertainty, but the PWATS do increase going toward 12Z which would translate to decent potential for pops. Blend stuck with chance and for now that would seem to be the best way tot go. Temps should remain uniform Sunday given increase in cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 509 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 A cold front will be moving into the region from the northwest as the period starts. Ample moisture is expected to arrive ahead of the front to support showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should peak with daytime heating as the front moves through, and likely pops have been used area wide. Shear does not look impressive, but instability could be in the neighborhood of 2K J/Kg, and a few gusty storms can not be ruled out. The bigger threat could be heavy rainfall, since steering currents will be relatively weak and precipitable H2O is expected to peak near 2". Most of the precip will move out Monday evening as the effective front and deep moisture settle to our south. Drier air will take a while to make its way in at the surface, but as surface high pressure slowly moves in from the northwest under an amplifying eastern CONUS trough, a more comfortable air mass should finally be realized by midweek. It looks like it will then hang around through the remainder of the week, but will eventually start to modify. The ECMWF does generate some light precip, mainly Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough deepens and a poorly resolved cold front approaches. The GFS and the GFS ensemble hold off on most of this precip, and have opted for silent 10 percent pops in the local forecast at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 VFR conditions expected to persist this evening through Sunday afternoon. Patchy fog looks to be largely confined to deeper river valleys as crossover temperatures were able to mix into the low-mid 60s Saturday afternoon. Portions of northeast and far eastern Kentucky, who experienced greater amounts of rainfall Thursday, remained slightly more moist thus perhaps leading to a better chance of lowering visibilities occurring at higher elevations. Nonetheless, potential looks to be rather low for sub- VFR visibilities at this time. Light east/southeast winds this evening will veer southwesterly Sunday afternoon while remaining near or below 5 knots. Thunderstorms will begin to nudge eastward Sunday afternoon, but look to remain low enough in coverage to warrant nil mention pre-00Z. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GUSEMAN
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Paducah KY 610 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Models show a quick decrease in convection by this evening with loss of daytime heating. Should remain quiet tonight into early tomorrow morning, then an approaching cold front from the northwest will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances through the day Sunday into Sunday night. GFS and Canadian are a little faster and indicate more coverage than the ECMWF, but generally solutions are in okay agreement. Went with slight to low chance pops for showers and thunderstorms in southern Illinois and southeast Missouri by late Sunday morning, then good chances north and west to slight chances southeast by late Sunday afternoon. Our best chances across the region will be Sunday night into Monday with the passage of the cold front. Conditions will remain hot and muggy ahead of the cold front. Sunday high temperatures will again reach the lower 90s with heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range. Cloud cover/convection on Monday will drop high temperatures back a few degrees, which will keep heat indices below 100 degrees. Dry conditions will return by Monday night with the cold front off to our south. As drier air begins to infiltrate the area, dew points will be dropping off Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 At the beginning of the extended forecast period (Tuesday) the WFO PAH forecast area is just south of the NW to SE oriented midlevel flow. A low ejecting from the Great Lakes toward Maine sharpens the flow aloft, allowing for 1) channeled vorticity advection into the area and slight cold air advection from the northeast. This adjustment will take place on Wednesday, setting the stage for intermittent disturbances to pass across the area. The forcing associated with these passing vorticity maxes embedded in the northwest flow will serve to sharpen the theta-e gradient over Southeast Missouri, Southwest Illinois and the Purchase area of West Kentucky by Thursday, leading to isolated/scattered diurnal convection. As the flow becomes more zonal on Friday into Saturday, the frequency of vort max interactions will take place. This will lead to more scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms to end the extended period. && .AVIATION... Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Diurnal showers and thunderstorms early this evening expected to continue to weaken/dissipate with no impact to the TAF sites. VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period, although VCTS possible at all sites starting around 17-18Z with the approach of a frontal system. Light and variable winds overnight will pick up out of the south southwest AOB 10 knots after 15Z. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Paducah KY 610 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Models show a quick decrease in convection by this evening with loss of daytime heating. Should remain quiet tonight into early tomorrow morning, then an approaching cold front from the northwest will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances through the day Sunday into Sunday night. GFS and Canadian are a little faster and indicate more coverage than the ECMWF, but generally solutions are in okay agreement. Went with slight to low chance pops for showers and thunderstorms in southern Illinois and southeast Missouri by late Sunday morning, then good chances north and west to slight chances southeast by late Sunday afternoon. Our best chances across the region will be Sunday night into Monday with the passage of the cold front. Conditions will remain hot and muggy ahead of the cold front. Sunday high temperatures will again reach the lower 90s with heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range. Cloud cover/convection on Monday will drop high temperatures back a few degrees, which will keep heat indices below 100 degrees. Dry conditions will return by Monday night with the cold front off to our south. As drier air begins to infiltrate the area, dew points will be dropping off Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 At the beginning of the extended forecast period (Tuesday) the WFO PAH forecast area is just south of the NW to SE oriented midlevel flow. A low ejecting from the Great Lakes toward Maine sharpens the flow aloft, allowing for 1) channeled vorticity advection into the area and slight cold air advection from the northeast. This adjustment will take place on Wednesday, setting the stage for intermittent disturbances to pass across the area. The forcing associated with these passing vorticity maxes embedded in the northwest flow will serve to sharpen the theta-e gradient over Southeast Missouri, Southwest Illinois and the Purchase area of West Kentucky by Thursday, leading to isolated/scattered diurnal convection. As the flow becomes more zonal on Friday into Saturday, the frequency of vort max interactions will take place. This will lead to more scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms to end the extended period. && .AVIATION... Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Diurnal showers and thunderstorms early this evening expected to continue to weaken/dissipate with no impact to the TAF sites. VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period, although VCTS possible at all sites starting around 17-18Z with the approach of a frontal system. Light and variable winds overnight will pick up out of the south southwest AOB 10 knots after 15Z. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 703 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)... Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday... A warm mostly sunny afternoon is in progress across central KY and south-central IN. Temperatures currently range in the mid 80s to near 90 and will rise a couple/few more degrees late this afternoon. Surface dewpoints generally are mid 60s east and upper 60s west. For tonight, expect a mostly clear sky with light wind and lows in the mid to upper 60s over the Bluegrass to lower 70s in our western forecast area. There could be patchy light fog or haze by daybreak but not enough to include in the forecast at this time. On Sunday, surface winds will become south to southwest which will import more humidity across the region. Expect afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s, along with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s over the Bluegrass region to lower 70s elsewhere. This will result in maximum afternoon heat indices from 95 to 100 east to around 100 west. Skies will be partly sunny. In the heat of the day, isolated diurnal thunderstorms could develop mainly over western and northern areas. Any stray storms should then dissipate in the evening with loss of heating. For Sunday night, a shortwave moving east across the northern Great Lakes states will support a cold front moving southeast over the Ohio Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that develop along and south of the front to our north Sunday afternoon will propagate southeast into southern IN late Sunday evening and parts of central KY overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Surface-based instability will diminish nocturnally but some elevated instability will still exist. Also, wind/shear fields will not be great. Therefore, severe storms are not expected with mainly general shower and thunderstorm activity expected. Precipitable water values are progged to rise to around 2 inches, so this combined with modest instability/CAPE will make for efficient rainfall producers, i.e., some storms could produce high rainfall rates. On Monday, the front will continue to settle southeast across the area. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected, especially over central KY, with precipitation chances diminishing as the day wears on over southern IN. The clouds and rain will keep temperatures down somewhat, although should still rise appreciably through the 80s. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week... The extended period will feature an average mid-level trough position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and eastern states. The front on Monday will clear the region Monday night. Any residual showers over far southeastern parts of our forecast area Monday evening will move out quickly. Expect lows in the 60s. A stronger secondary cold front then will move into and through our area from the north on Tuesday. A band of some clouds may accompany the front but it should move through dry. This front will bring an appreciable change in temperatures and humidity. With surface high pressure building in and remaining in control over the Ohio Valley behind this front, dry weather will prevail with a clear to partly cloudy sky from Tuesday though Friday. High temperatures Tuesday should be in the lower and mid 80s, then only in the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday, before moderating back into the lower and mid 80s Friday afternoon. Low temperatures should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in most areas during the period. To put this in perspective, average normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Besides the cooler temperatures, surface dewpoints also will drop into the 50s by Wednesday which is anonymously low for the end of June. Bottom line, some very pleasant early summer weather is in store Tuesday through Friday next week. By next Saturday, some moisture should return with isolated thunderstorms possible and highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Only anticipated restriction is MVFR visibility in BWG for a few hrs around daybreak. Moisture return already seems to be underway there, but temps do not appear poised to radiate down to the current dewpoint, so will not take it down any lower. Drier column over SDF and LEX will keep those terminals VFR. SW winds will pick up by midday Sun with deeper mixing, but remain just shy of 10 kt. Will limit clouds to diurnal cu and/or developing cirrus. Approaching cold front will get closer to SDF in the planning period, but not high enough probabilities to warrant any precip in the TAF. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........TWF Long Term.........TWF Aviation..........RAS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 703 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)... Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday... A warm mostly sunny afternoon is in progress across central KY and south-central IN. Temperatures currently range in the mid 80s to near 90 and will rise a couple/few more degrees late this afternoon. Surface dewpoints generally are mid 60s east and upper 60s west. For tonight, expect a mostly clear sky with light wind and lows in the mid to upper 60s over the Bluegrass to lower 70s in our western forecast area. There could be patchy light fog or haze by daybreak but not enough to include in the forecast at this time. On Sunday, surface winds will become south to southwest which will import more humidity across the region. Expect afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s, along with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s over the Bluegrass region to lower 70s elsewhere. This will result in maximum afternoon heat indices from 95 to 100 east to around 100 west. Skies will be partly sunny. In the heat of the day, isolated diurnal thunderstorms could develop mainly over western and northern areas. Any stray storms should then dissipate in the evening with loss of heating. For Sunday night, a shortwave moving east across the northern Great Lakes states will support a cold front moving southeast over the Ohio Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that develop along and south of the front to our north Sunday afternoon will propagate southeast into southern IN late Sunday evening and parts of central KY overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Surface-based instability will diminish nocturnally but some elevated instability will still exist. Also, wind/shear fields will not be great. Therefore, severe storms are not expected with mainly general shower and thunderstorm activity expected. Precipitable water values are progged to rise to around 2 inches, so this combined with modest instability/CAPE will make for efficient rainfall producers, i.e., some storms could produce high rainfall rates. On Monday, the front will continue to settle southeast across the area. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected, especially over central KY, with precipitation chances diminishing as the day wears on over southern IN. The clouds and rain will keep temperatures down somewhat, although should still rise appreciably through the 80s. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week... The extended period will feature an average mid-level trough position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and eastern states. The front on Monday will clear the region Monday night. Any residual showers over far southeastern parts of our forecast area Monday evening will move out quickly. Expect lows in the 60s. A stronger secondary cold front then will move into and through our area from the north on Tuesday. A band of some clouds may accompany the front but it should move through dry. This front will bring an appreciable change in temperatures and humidity. With surface high pressure building in and remaining in control over the Ohio Valley behind this front, dry weather will prevail with a clear to partly cloudy sky from Tuesday though Friday. High temperatures Tuesday should be in the lower and mid 80s, then only in the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday, before moderating back into the lower and mid 80s Friday afternoon. Low temperatures should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in most areas during the period. To put this in perspective, average normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Besides the cooler temperatures, surface dewpoints also will drop into the 50s by Wednesday which is anonymously low for the end of June. Bottom line, some very pleasant early summer weather is in store Tuesday through Friday next week. By next Saturday, some moisture should return with isolated thunderstorms possible and highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Only anticipated restriction is MVFR visibility in BWG for a few hrs around daybreak. Moisture return already seems to be underway there, but temps do not appear poised to radiate down to the current dewpoint, so will not take it down any lower. Drier column over SDF and LEX will keep those terminals VFR. SW winds will pick up by midday Sun with deeper mixing, but remain just shy of 10 kt. Will limit clouds to diurnal cu and/or developing cirrus. Approaching cold front will get closer to SDF in the planning period, but not high enough probabilities to warrant any precip in the TAF. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........TWF Long Term.........TWF Aviation..........RAS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 509 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Surface analysis indicates high pressure centered across the Mid Atlantic with broad surface high stretching south into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This along with rising heights will lead to tranquil conditions across eastern Kentucky. We have seen some diurnally driven CU this afternoon but these will die off as we loose the afternoon heating. Speaking of heating as 592 height has spread back northeast and we have seen temperatures warm back into the mid to upper 80s. Therefore overall forecast looks on track through the evening. Tonight the surface high will continue to control as it gradual shift south and east. Models seem to be less robust on the fog potential tonight and therefore scaled that back from previous night. Right now seems like best chances will be in the deeper river valleys. Otherwise temps are expected to bottom out in the mid to upper 60s. Sunday into Sunday night attention begins to focus on a generally weak front that will slowly progress east through the latter part of the short term period. Sunday as surface high moves east additional return flow sets in and we see continued warm air advection. Temps respond by topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overall most spots should remain dry on Sunday, but can not rule out some slight pops in the west/SW due to the rising PWATS on Sunday afternoon. The GFS would suggest the potential for some Cumberland Plateau development and these would have the potential to migrate into the Cumberland River area. Right now the models are a bit all over the place with precip going into Sunday night. Right now will lean on a blend approach given the uncertainty, but the PWATS do increase going toward 12Z which would translate to decent potential for pops. Blend stuck with chance and for now that would seem to be the best way tot go. Temps should remain uniform Sunday given increase in cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 509 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 A cold front will be moving into the region from the northwest as the period starts. Ample moisture is expected to arrive ahead of the front to support showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should peak with daytime heating as the front moves through, and likely pops have been used area wide. Shear does not look impressive, but instability could be in the neighborhood of 2K J/Kg, and a few gusty storms can not be ruled out. The bigger threat could be heavy rainfall, since steering currents will be relatively weak and precipitable H2O is expected to peak near 2". Most of the precip will move out Monday evening as the effective front and deep moisture settle to our south. Drier air will take a while to make its way in at the surface, but as surface high pressure slowly moves in from the northwest under an amplifying eastern CONUS trough, a more comfortable air mass should finally be realized by midweek. It looks like it will then hang around through the remainder of the week, but will eventually start to modify. The ECMWF does generate some light precip, mainly Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough deepens and a poorly resolved cold front approaches. The GFS and the GFS ensemble hold off on most of this precip, and have opted for silent 10 percent pops in the local forecast at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Sites this afternoon are VFR with scattered CU at or around 4 KFT. Some of the sites have been reporting a bit more cloud cover than is realistically been seen. These CU are expected to remain limited in their vertical growth given inversion layer aloft. Otherwise we look to clear out once again tonight which could lead to more fog potential, but we are not looking for quite the coverage or density seen yesterday. Did opt to add some high end MVFR VIS overnight and toward dawn just based on some of the sounding data. The areas that are at most risk for patchy dense fog tonight will be the deeper river valleys. Overall winds through the period will remain light and variable. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 317 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Models show a quick decrease in convection by this evening with loss of daytime heating. Should remain quiet tonight into early tomorrow morning, then an approaching cold front from the northwest will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances through the day Sunday into Sunday night. GFS and Canadian are a little faster and indicate more coverage than the ECMWF, but generally solutions are in okay agreement. Went with slight to low chance pops for showers and thunderstorms in southern Illinois and southeast Missouri by late Sunday morning, then good chances north and west to slight chances southeast by late Sunday afternoon. Our best chances across the region will be Sunday night into Monday with the passage of the cold front. Conditions will remain hot and muggy ahead of the cold front. Sunday high temperatures will again reach the lower 90s with heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range. Cloud cover/convection on Monday will drop high temperatures back a few degrees, which will keep heat indices below 100 degrees. Dry conditions will return by Monday night with the cold front off to our south. As drier air begins to infiltrate the area, dew points will be dropping off Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 At the beginning of the extended forecast period (Tuesday) the WFO PAH forecast area is just south of the NW to SE oriented midlevel flow. A low ejecting from the Great Lakes toward Maine sharpens the flow aloft, allowing for 1) channeled vorticity advection into the area and slight cold air advection from the northeast. This adjustment will take place on Wednesday, setting the stage for intermittent disturbances to pass across the area. The forcing associated with these passing vorticity maxes embedded in the northwest flow will serve to sharpen the theta-e gradient over Southeast Missouri, Southwest Illinois and the Purchase area of West Kentucky by Thursday, leading to isolated/scattered diurnal convection. As the flow becomes more zonal on Friday into Saturday, the frequency of vort max interactions will take place. This will lead to more scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms to end the extended period. && .AVIATION... Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Continued with VCTS at KCGI and KPAH until 23z, then convection should dissipate. Expect VFR conditions across all TAF sites overnight into Sunday morning. A very small chance of showers and storms will be possible late in the TAF period at KCGI and KEVV with the approach of a cold front, but chances are too small to include in the TAFs. Southwest winds around 7 kts will become light overnight, then increase to around 5 kts after 13z. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...RST
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 317 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Models show a quick decrease in convection by this evening with loss of daytime heating. Should remain quiet tonight into early tomorrow morning, then an approaching cold front from the northwest will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances through the day Sunday into Sunday night. GFS and Canadian are a little faster and indicate more coverage than the ECMWF, but generally solutions are in okay agreement. Went with slight to low chance pops for showers and thunderstorms in southern Illinois and southeast Missouri by late Sunday morning, then good chances north and west to slight chances southeast by late Sunday afternoon. Our best chances across the region will be Sunday night into Monday with the passage of the cold front. Conditions will remain hot and muggy ahead of the cold front. Sunday high temperatures will again reach the lower 90s with heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range. Cloud cover/convection on Monday will drop high temperatures back a few degrees, which will keep heat indices below 100 degrees. Dry conditions will return by Monday night with the cold front off to our south. As drier air begins to infiltrate the area, dew points will be dropping off Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 At the beginning of the extended forecast period (Tuesday) the WFO PAH forecast area is just south of the NW to SE oriented midlevel flow. A low ejecting from the Great Lakes toward Maine sharpens the flow aloft, allowing for 1) channeled vorticity advection into the area and slight cold air advection from the northeast. This adjustment will take place on Wednesday, setting the stage for intermittent disturbances to pass across the area. The forcing associated with these passing vorticity maxes embedded in the northwest flow will serve to sharpen the theta-e gradient over Southeast Missouri, Southwest Illinois and the Purchase area of West Kentucky by Thursday, leading to isolated/scattered diurnal convection. As the flow becomes more zonal on Friday into Saturday, the frequency of vort max interactions will take place. This will lead to more scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms to end the extended period. && .AVIATION... Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Continued with VCTS at KCGI and KPAH until 23z, then convection should dissipate. Expect VFR conditions across all TAF sites overnight into Sunday morning. A very small chance of showers and storms will be possible late in the TAF period at KCGI and KEVV with the approach of a cold front, but chances are too small to include in the TAFs. Southwest winds around 7 kts will become light overnight, then increase to around 5 kts after 13z. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...RST
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Surface analysis indicates high pressure centered across the Mid Atlantic with broad surface high stretching south into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This along with rising heights will lead to tranquil conditions across eastern Kentucky. We have seen some diurnally driven CU this afternoon but these will die off as we loose the afternoon heating. Speaking of heating as 592 height has spread back northeast and we have seen temperatures warm back into the mid to upper 80s. Therefore overall forecast looks on track through the evening. Tonight the surface high will continue to control as it gradual shift south and east. Models seem to be less robust on the fog potential tonight and therefore scaled that back from previous night. Right now seems like best chances will be in the deeper river valleys. Otherwise temps are expected to bottom out in the mid to upper 60s. Sunday into Sunday night attention begins to focus on a generally weak front that will slowly progress east through the latter part of the short term period. Sunday as surface high moves east additional return flow sets in and we see continued warm air advection. Temps respond by topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overall most spots should remain dry on Sunday, but can not rule out some slight pops in the west/SW due to the rising PWATS on Sunday afternoon. The GFS would suggest the potential for some Cumberland Plateau development and these would have the potential to migrate into the Cumberland River area. Right now the models are a bit all over the place with precip going into Sunday night. Right now will lean on a blend approach given the uncertainty, but the PWATS do increase going toward 12Z which would translate to decent potential for pops. Blend stuck with chance and for now that would seem to be the best way tot go. Temps should remain uniform Sunday given increase in cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Available shortly... && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Sites this afternoon are VFR with scattered CU at or around 4 KFT. Some of the sites have been reporting a bit more cloud cover than is realistically been seen. These CU are expected to remain limited in their vertical growth given inversion layer aloft. Otherwise we look to clear out once again tonight which could lead to more fog potential, but we are not looking for quite the coverage or density seen yesterday. Did opt to add some high end MVFR VIS overnight and toward dawn just based on some of the sounding data. The areas that are at most risk for patchy dense fog tonight will be the deeper river valleys. Overall winds through the period will remain light and variable. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 315 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)... Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday... A warm mostly sunny afternoon is in progress across central KY and south-central IN. Temperatures currently range in the mid 80s to near 90 and will rise a couple/few more degrees late this afternoon. Surface dewpoints generally are mid 60s east and upper 60s west. For tonight, expect a mostly clear sky with light wind and lows in the mid to upper 60s over the Bluegrass to lower 70s in our western forecast area. There could be patchy light fog or haze by daybreak but not enough to include in the forecast at this time. On Sunday, surface winds will become south to southwest which will import more humidity across the region. Expect afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s, along with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s over the Bluegrass region to lower 70s elsewhere. This will result in maximum afternoon heat indices from 95 to 100 east to around 100 west. Skies will be partly sunny. In the heat of the day, isolated diurnal thunderstorms could develop mainly over western and northern areas. Any stray storms should then dissipate in the evening with loss of heating. For Sunday night, a shortwave moving east across the northern Great Lakes states will support a cold front moving southeast over the Ohio Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that develop along and south of the front to our north Sunday afternoon will propagate southeast into southern IN late Sunday evening and parts of central KY overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Surface-based instability will diminish nocturnally but some elevated instability will still exist. Also, wind/shear fields will not be great. Therefore, severe storms are not expected with mainly general shower and thunderstorm activity expected. Precipitable water values are progged to rise to around 2 inches, so this combined with modest instability/CAPE will make for efficient rainfall producers, i.e., some storms could produce high rainfall rates. On Monday, the front will continue to settle southeast across the area. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected, especially over central KY, with precipitation chances diminishing as the day wears on over southern IN. The clouds and rain will keep temperatures down somewhat, although should still rise appreciably through the 80s. .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week... The extended period will feature an average mid-level trough position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and eastern states. The front on Monday will clear the region Monday night. Any residual showers over far southeastern parts of our forecast area Monday evening will move out quickly. Expect lows in the 60s. A stronger secondary cold front then will move into and through our area from the north on Tuesday. A band of some clouds may accompany the front but it should move through dry. This front will bring an appreciable change in temperatures and humidity. With surface high pressure building in and remaining in control over the Ohio Valley behind this front, dry weather will prevail with a clear to partly cloudy sky from Tuesday though Friday. High temperatures Tuesday should be in the lower and mid 80s, then only in the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday, before moderating back into the lower and mid 80s Friday afternoon. Low temperatures should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in most areas during the period. To put this in perspective, average normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Besides the cooler temperatures, surface dewpoints also will drop into the 50s by Wednesday which is anonymously low for the end of June. Bottom line, some very pleasant early summer weather is in store Tuesday through Friday next week. By next Saturday, some moisture should return with isolated thunderstorms possible and highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 VFR conditions are expected through much of the upcoming forecast period. Light and variable winds will be seen at the terminals this afternoon. A diurnal Cu field will likely develop around FL040-060 but dissipate around sunset. Clear skies and light winds are expected tonight. A period of MVFR vsbys will be possible at KBWG between 26/08-12Z. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........TWF Long Term.........TWF Aviation..........MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1241 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Fog has cleared and now we have some afternoon CU based on obs and vis sat. These will remain fair weather CU, given surface high pressure skirting the region. Also stout inversion seen in the model sounding data will likely aid in inhibiting much in the way of vertical growth. Other than the clouds the warm temps will continue to build across the region, as the 591 height line creeps NE across the Ohio Valley. No major changes needed this update. UPDATE Issued at 1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Vis sat and regional webcams this morning indicate most of the fog has lifted or burnt off this morning. We are left with mostly sunny skies in the wake of the fog and temperatures are climbing into the mid to upper 70s. This update only minor changes to the grids were needed, but did update zone forecast/HWO to reflect the clearing of the fog. UPDATE Issued at 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to align better with the current trends in observations, otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the Continental Divide. The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less extensive. Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in the day near that area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week, bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday, but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the forecast to end to upcoming work week. Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region. Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid 60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday looks to be a very warm day. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Sites this afternoon are VFR with scattered CU at or around 4 KFT. Some of the sites have been reporting a bit more cloud cover than is realistically been seen. These CU are expected to remain limited in their vertical growth given inversion layer aloft. Otherwise we look to clear out once again tonight which could lead to more fog potential, but we are not looking for quite the coverage or density seen yesterday. Did opt to add some high end MVFR VIS overnight and toward dawn just based on some of the sounding data. The areas that are at most risk for patchy dense fog tonight will be the deeper river valleys. Overall winds through the period will remain light and variable. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 112 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 A sunny sky exists over much of central KY and south-central IN this morning, with the exception of some clouds over western parts of south-central KY. This area should remain partly sunny this afternoon with a mostly sunny sky elsewhere. Lower surface dewpoints exist over northern KY, and some of this lower humidity air should slip into the eastern parts of south-central IN and the northern Bluegrass. However, it should remain fairly humid elsewhere. Have raised maximum high temperatures this afternoon a degree or two in some areas so it will definitely be a very warm afternoon. Conditions should remain dry. No real changes to the forecast tonight or Sunday at this time. .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Well...Short term concerns are fog this morning and storms chances late Sunday. Surface high pressure over CLE will usher in slightly drier airmass today. UPS crossover method for fog shows the best potential will be over the Bluegrass Region and far southern KY. The positives for the fog are clear skies...moist llvls...light winds and the main inhibitor is the Friday strong mixing out. The high resolution models show the LTE 1 mile vsby is over the LEX area. Will be watching web cams...obs and enhanced fog loops. For now, not planning on headline, but likely will reissue the SPS at press time. For the rest of today...a dry day with zeniths today in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The MOS numbers seem a tad high due to moist ground from this past weeks rains. The high resolution models are initiating scattered convection in the late afternoon across our southwestern KY (I-24), but will keep area dry but will have 14 pops in Logan to Ohio Counties. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Sunday... Mid-level ridge from Show State to Land of 10K Lakes will break down as 560m low over Big Sky Country. This will drive a cold front towards the Ohio valley. The new 00z models show the ridge holding long enough to delay majority of precip til at least 18z. Plan to do a bunch of tweaking to the POPs and weather grids and hit most of the precip til Sunday evening. Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. With dew points climbing into the lower 70s...heat indices will climb to around 100,,,with low 100s across southern KY. .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)... Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night into Monday... ...Much Cooler and drier Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week... Well...by Sunday evening...classic summer time set up with 2 inch PWATs...MUCAPEs around 3K J/kg and weak wind field. Deterministic Models diverge with some taking most of the energy to the N with the stronger mid level winds and gap KY but others develops scattered convection from 22-09z. Should be a few strong to severe storms with wind and extremely heavy rain the threats. The current SPC outlook looks very reasonable especially considering DCAPE of 1000j/kg. Wind fields are extremely light in the entire column and combined with sultry airmass, localized flooding is possible. Looks like chc-sct pops Sunday evening especially across the nrn CWA. Monday the front slowly sags and will add another day of storms especially for the srn and ern 1/2 of the CWA. Highs Monday look to warm into the upper 80s with abundant cloud cover. overnight lows in the lower 70s. Tue-Thu... After the front goes through the region, we`ll see cooler and much drier weather return to the region. The 1000-500mb thickness drop precipitously as amplifying ridge across the silver state out dominates out west. Dew points will be dropping into the 50s (yes you read that right, the 50s) with afternoon highs 7 to 12 degrees below normal. Soundings would yield around 80 on Wednesday... Possibly 75 to 80 across northeastern areas. The upper trough will keep us cooler and drier through Thursday with a big Hudson Bay low the dominating feature for the east coast with torrid air across the desert southwest. Low temperatures will bottom out in the valley and better drainage areas such as Frankfort and Cynthiana. Lows will be in the 50s. Fri-weekend (from previous forecaster) The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part of the week. The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out west and a baggy trough axis in the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a notorious northwest flow. During this time, we`ll have to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge and then riding down into the Ohio Valley. While there has been a constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday, the models really struggle with these type flow regimes. Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 VFR conditions are expected through much of the upcoming forecast period. Light and variable winds will be seen at the terminals this afternoon. A diurnal Cu field will likely develop around FL040-060 but dissipate around sunset. Clear skies and light winds are expected tonight. A period of MVFR vsbys will be possible at KBWG between 26/08-12Z. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........TWF Short Term.....JDG Long Term......JDG Aviation.......MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 112 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 A sunny sky exists over much of central KY and south-central IN this morning, with the exception of some clouds over western parts of south-central KY. This area should remain partly sunny this afternoon with a mostly sunny sky elsewhere. Lower surface dewpoints exist over northern KY, and some of this lower humidity air should slip into the eastern parts of south-central IN and the northern Bluegrass. However, it should remain fairly humid elsewhere. Have raised maximum high temperatures this afternoon a degree or two in some areas so it will definitely be a very warm afternoon. Conditions should remain dry. No real changes to the forecast tonight or Sunday at this time. .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Well...Short term concerns are fog this morning and storms chances late Sunday. Surface high pressure over CLE will usher in slightly drier airmass today. UPS crossover method for fog shows the best potential will be over the Bluegrass Region and far southern KY. The positives for the fog are clear skies...moist llvls...light winds and the main inhibitor is the Friday strong mixing out. The high resolution models show the LTE 1 mile vsby is over the LEX area. Will be watching web cams...obs and enhanced fog loops. For now, not planning on headline, but likely will reissue the SPS at press time. For the rest of today...a dry day with zeniths today in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The MOS numbers seem a tad high due to moist ground from this past weeks rains. The high resolution models are initiating scattered convection in the late afternoon across our southwestern KY (I-24), but will keep area dry but will have 14 pops in Logan to Ohio Counties. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Sunday... Mid-level ridge from Show State to Land of 10K Lakes will break down as 560m low over Big Sky Country. This will drive a cold front towards the Ohio valley. The new 00z models show the ridge holding long enough to delay majority of precip til at least 18z. Plan to do a bunch of tweaking to the POPs and weather grids and hit most of the precip til Sunday evening. Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. With dew points climbing into the lower 70s...heat indices will climb to around 100,,,with low 100s across southern KY. .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)... Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night into Monday... ...Much Cooler and drier Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week... Well...by Sunday evening...classic summer time set up with 2 inch PWATs...MUCAPEs around 3K J/kg and weak wind field. Deterministic Models diverge with some taking most of the energy to the N with the stronger mid level winds and gap KY but others develops scattered convection from 22-09z. Should be a few strong to severe storms with wind and extremely heavy rain the threats. The current SPC outlook looks very reasonable especially considering DCAPE of 1000j/kg. Wind fields are extremely light in the entire column and combined with sultry airmass, localized flooding is possible. Looks like chc-sct pops Sunday evening especially across the nrn CWA. Monday the front slowly sags and will add another day of storms especially for the srn and ern 1/2 of the CWA. Highs Monday look to warm into the upper 80s with abundant cloud cover. overnight lows in the lower 70s. Tue-Thu... After the front goes through the region, we`ll see cooler and much drier weather return to the region. The 1000-500mb thickness drop precipitously as amplifying ridge across the silver state out dominates out west. Dew points will be dropping into the 50s (yes you read that right, the 50s) with afternoon highs 7 to 12 degrees below normal. Soundings would yield around 80 on Wednesday... Possibly 75 to 80 across northeastern areas. The upper trough will keep us cooler and drier through Thursday with a big Hudson Bay low the dominating feature for the east coast with torrid air across the desert southwest. Low temperatures will bottom out in the valley and better drainage areas such as Frankfort and Cynthiana. Lows will be in the 50s. Fri-weekend (from previous forecaster) The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part of the week. The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out west and a baggy trough axis in the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a notorious northwest flow. During this time, we`ll have to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge and then riding down into the Ohio Valley. While there has been a constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday, the models really struggle with these type flow regimes. Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 VFR conditions are expected through much of the upcoming forecast period. Light and variable winds will be seen at the terminals this afternoon. A diurnal Cu field will likely develop around FL040-060 but dissipate around sunset. Clear skies and light winds are expected tonight. A period of MVFR vsbys will be possible at KBWG between 26/08-12Z. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........TWF Short Term.....JDG Long Term......JDG Aviation.......MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 1241 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1241 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Fog has cleared and now we have some afternoon CU based on obs and vis sat. These will remain fair weather CU, given surface high pressure skirting the region. Also stout inversion seen in the model sounding data will likely aid in inhibiting much in the way of vertical growth. Other than the clouds the warm temps will continue to build across the region, as the 591 height line creeps NE across the Ohio Valley. No major changes needed this update. UPDATE Issued at 1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Vis sat and regional webcams this morning indicate most of the fog has lifted or burnt off this morning. We are left with mostly sunny skies in the wake of the fog and temperatures are climbing into the mid to upper 70s. This update only minor changes to the grids were needed, but did update zone forecast/HWO to reflect the clearing of the fog. UPDATE Issued at 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to align better with the current trends in observations, otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the Continental Divide. The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less extensive. Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in the day near that area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week, bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday, but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the forecast to end to upcoming work week. Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region. Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid 60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday looks to be a very warm day. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 LIFR or worse fog will burn off by around 13z this morning. VFR conditions will then take hold, with a few cumulus developing during the day at 5-6k feet agl. Fog will likely form again tonight between 06 and 13z; however, this will be more restricted to the deeper river valleys. Winds will remain light through the period as well. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1035 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 A sunny sky exists over much of central KY and south-central IN this morning, with the exception of some clouds over western parts of south-central KY. This area should remain partly sunny this afternoon with a mostly sunny sky elsewhere. Lower surface dewpoints exist over northern KY, and some of this lower humidity air should slip into the eastern parts of south-central IN and the northern Bluegrass. However, it should remain fairly humid elsewhere. Have raised maximum high temperatures this afternoon a degree or two in some areas so it will definitely be a very warm afternoon. Conditions should remain dry. No real changes to the forecast tonight or Sunday at this time. .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Well...Short term concerns are fog this morning and storms chances late Sunday. Surface high pressure over CLE will usher in slightly drier airmass today. UPS crossover method for fog shows the best potential will be over the Bluegrass Region and far southern KY. The positives for the fog are clear skies...moist llvls...light winds and the main inhibitor is the Friday strong mixing out. The high resolution models show the LTE 1 mile vsby is over the LEX area. Will be watching web cams...obs and enhanced fog loops. For now, not planning on headline, but likely will reissue the SPS at press time. For the rest of today...a dry day with zeniths today in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The MOS numbers seem a tad high due to moist ground from this past weeks rains. The high resolution models are initiating scattered convection in the late afternoon across our southwestern KY (I-24), but will keep area dry but will have 14 pops in Logan to Ohio Counties. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Sunday... Mid-level ridge from Show State to Land of 10K Lakes will break down as 560m low over Big Sky Country. This will drive a cold front towards the Ohio valley. The new 00z models show the ridge holding long enough to delay majority of precip til at least 18z. Plan to do a bunch of tweaking to the POPs and weather grids and hit most of the precip til Sunday evening. Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. With dew points climbing into the lower 70s...heat indices will climb to around 100,,,with low 100s across southern KY. .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)... Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night into Monday... ...Much Cooler and drier Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week... Well...by Sunday evening...classic summer time set up with 2 inch PWATs...MUCAPEs around 3K J/kg and weak wind field. Deterministic Models diverge with some taking most of the energy to the N with the stronger mid level winds and gap KY but others develops scattered convection from 22-09z. Should be a few strong to severe storms with wind and extremely heavy rain the threats. The current SPC outlook looks very reasonable especially considering DCAPE of 1000j/kg. Wind fields are extremely light in the entire column and combined with sultry airmass, localized flooding is possible. Looks like chc-sct pops Sunday evening especially across the nrn CWA. Monday the front slowly sags and will add another day of storms especially for the srn and ern 1/2 of the CWA. Highs Monday look to warm into the upper 80s with abundant cloud cover. overnight lows in the lower 70s. Tue-Thu... After the front goes through the region, we`ll see cooler and much drier weather return to the region. The 1000-500mb thickness drop precipitously as amplifying ridge across the silver state out dominates out west. Dew points will be dropping into the 50s (yes you read that right, the 50s) with afternoon highs 7 to 12 degrees below normal. Soundings would yield around 80 on Wednesday... Possibly 75 to 80 across northeastern areas. The upper trough will keep us cooler and drier through Thursday with a big Hudson Bay low the dominating feature for the east coast with torrid air across the desert southwest. Low temperatures will bottom out in the valley and better drainage areas such as Frankfort and Cynthiana. Lows will be in the 50s. Fri-weekend (from previous forecaster) The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part of the week. The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out west and a baggy trough axis in the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a notorious northwest flow. During this time, we`ll have to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge and then riding down into the Ohio Valley. While there has been a constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday, the models really struggle with these type flow regimes. Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 642 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light patchy fog may be possible for BWG and LEX, but will quickly burn off in the next hour or two. For today, winds are light out of the ENE. Scattered diurnal CU at FL040-060 are expected this afternoon. For tonight, expect clear conditions with light and variable winds. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........TWF Short Term.....JDG Long Term......JDG Aviation.......KJD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1035 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 A sunny sky exists over much of central KY and south-central IN this morning, with the exception of some clouds over western parts of south-central KY. This area should remain partly sunny this afternoon with a mostly sunny sky elsewhere. Lower surface dewpoints exist over northern KY, and some of this lower humidity air should slip into the eastern parts of south-central IN and the northern Bluegrass. However, it should remain fairly humid elsewhere. Have raised maximum high temperatures this afternoon a degree or two in some areas so it will definitely be a very warm afternoon. Conditions should remain dry. No real changes to the forecast tonight or Sunday at this time. .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Well...Short term concerns are fog this morning and storms chances late Sunday. Surface high pressure over CLE will usher in slightly drier airmass today. UPS crossover method for fog shows the best potential will be over the Bluegrass Region and far southern KY. The positives for the fog are clear skies...moist llvls...light winds and the main inhibitor is the Friday strong mixing out. The high resolution models show the LTE 1 mile vsby is over the LEX area. Will be watching web cams...obs and enhanced fog loops. For now, not planning on headline, but likely will reissue the SPS at press time. For the rest of today...a dry day with zeniths today in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The MOS numbers seem a tad high due to moist ground from this past weeks rains. The high resolution models are initiating scattered convection in the late afternoon across our southwestern KY (I-24), but will keep area dry but will have 14 pops in Logan to Ohio Counties. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Sunday... Mid-level ridge from Show State to Land of 10K Lakes will break down as 560m low over Big Sky Country. This will drive a cold front towards the Ohio valley. The new 00z models show the ridge holding long enough to delay majority of precip til at least 18z. Plan to do a bunch of tweaking to the POPs and weather grids and hit most of the precip til Sunday evening. Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. With dew points climbing into the lower 70s...heat indices will climb to around 100,,,with low 100s across southern KY. .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)... Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night into Monday... ...Much Cooler and drier Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week... Well...by Sunday evening...classic summer time set up with 2 inch PWATs...MUCAPEs around 3K J/kg and weak wind field. Deterministic Models diverge with some taking most of the energy to the N with the stronger mid level winds and gap KY but others develops scattered convection from 22-09z. Should be a few strong to severe storms with wind and extremely heavy rain the threats. The current SPC outlook looks very reasonable especially considering DCAPE of 1000j/kg. Wind fields are extremely light in the entire column and combined with sultry airmass, localized flooding is possible. Looks like chc-sct pops Sunday evening especially across the nrn CWA. Monday the front slowly sags and will add another day of storms especially for the srn and ern 1/2 of the CWA. Highs Monday look to warm into the upper 80s with abundant cloud cover. overnight lows in the lower 70s. Tue-Thu... After the front goes through the region, we`ll see cooler and much drier weather return to the region. The 1000-500mb thickness drop precipitously as amplifying ridge across the silver state out dominates out west. Dew points will be dropping into the 50s (yes you read that right, the 50s) with afternoon highs 7 to 12 degrees below normal. Soundings would yield around 80 on Wednesday... Possibly 75 to 80 across northeastern areas. The upper trough will keep us cooler and drier through Thursday with a big Hudson Bay low the dominating feature for the east coast with torrid air across the desert southwest. Low temperatures will bottom out in the valley and better drainage areas such as Frankfort and Cynthiana. Lows will be in the 50s. Fri-weekend (from previous forecaster) The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part of the week. The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out west and a baggy trough axis in the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a notorious northwest flow. During this time, we`ll have to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge and then riding down into the Ohio Valley. While there has been a constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday, the models really struggle with these type flow regimes. Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 642 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light patchy fog may be possible for BWG and LEX, but will quickly burn off in the next hour or two. For today, winds are light out of the ENE. Scattered diurnal CU at FL040-060 are expected this afternoon. For tonight, expect clear conditions with light and variable winds. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........TWF Short Term.....JDG Long Term......JDG Aviation.......KJD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Vis sat and regional webcams this morning indicate most of the fog has lifted or burnt off this morning. We are left with mostly sunny skies in the wake of the fog and temperatures are climbing into the mid to upper 70s. This update only minor changes to the grids were needed, but did update zone forecast/HWO to reflect the clearing of the fog. UPDATE Issued at 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to align better with the current trends in observations, otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the Continental Divide. The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less extensive. Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in the day near that area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week, bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday, but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the forecast to end to upcoming work week. Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region. Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid 60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday looks to be a very warm day. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 LIFR or worse fog will burn off by around 13z this morning. VFR conditions will then take hold, with a few cumulus developing during the day at 5-6k feet agl. Fog will likely form again tonight between 06 and 13z; however, this will be more restricted to the deeper river valleys. Winds will remain light through the period as well. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Vis sat and regional webcams this morning indicate most of the fog has lifted or burnt off this morning. We are left with mostly sunny skies in the wake of the fog and temperatures are climbing into the mid to upper 70s. This update only minor changes to the grids were needed, but did update zone forecast/HWO to reflect the clearing of the fog. UPDATE Issued at 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to align better with the current trends in observations, otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the Continental Divide. The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less extensive. Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in the day near that area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week, bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday, but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the forecast to end to upcoming work week. Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region. Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid 60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday looks to be a very warm day. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 LIFR or worse fog will burn off by around 13z this morning. VFR conditions will then take hold, with a few cumulus developing during the day at 5-6k feet agl. Fog will likely form again tonight between 06 and 13z; however, this will be more restricted to the deeper river valleys. Winds will remain light through the period as well. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 640 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 640 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Updated aviation discussion only. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 A weak warm front, bisecting the PAH forecast area from northwest to southeast early today, is expected to move northeastward through the region and become diffuse during the day. This boundary will be motivated by a minor vort max skipping through the otherwise anticyclonic flow aloft. Most of the energy associated with the vort will be during the morning hours, after which the models indicate the feature will damp out as it moves eastward. The front will be the focus for some low level lift in a moist and unstable atmosphere (3-4k j/kg CAPE). Therefore, widely scattered to scattered showers and tstms should develop by late morning mainly west of the MS River, but also possibly in southwestern IL and the Purchase area of KY. However, by late afternoon, the coverage of deep moist convection should diminish rapidly with the loss of upper support. An isolated shower or tstm cannot be ruled out after 00Z, but we will continue to hold PoPs below the mentionable level (15%) for tonight. As the atmosphere destabilizes again during the day Sunday, a northern stream shortwave centered in southern Canada is forecast to be in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. This will tend to lower mid level heights to our north and push a surface boundary toward the PAH forecast area. Scattered showers and tstms should be expected Sunday, mainly for southeastern MO, southern IL, and southwestern IN. A storm or two could be strong there. The frontal boundary will sink southward partially through the region Sunday night, providing focus for deep moist convection to continue mainly ahead of it, albeit with a slowly stabilizing atmosphere. Slight to chance PoPs were maintained. As significantly drier, cooler air deepens behind the front Monday, pcpn will end rapidly from north to south. The southern half of our region has the highest PoPs then, up to 50%. Surface dewpoints are expected to surge back into the lower 70s by late today, even in southwestern IN. Expect lows in the tepid middle 70s this weekend, with highs in the lower half of the 90s, dropping off a bit Monday. Heat indices will probably exceed 100 for the southwestern half of the region today, and the whole region Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Models continue to drive a strong front southward into the deep south as a deep upper trof takes shape over the ne U.S. and Great Lakes regions. As a result, we`ll see H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. Confidence is high that we will be experiencing below normal temps by mid week, with high temps from near 80 to the lower half of the 80s. Likewise, humidity levels will be very comfortable. By Thursday, the models continue to dive a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/mid Mississippi River Valley regions within broad nwly flow aloft. Thinking is that most of the energy (and hence pops) will stay generally west and south of our area, and the atmosphere will be quite dry in the lower levels. Hence, will keep rain/shower chances on the low side, generally less than 30 percent. && .AVIATION... Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 VFR conditions can be expected in the next 24 hrs at the TAF sites. As a weak warm front bisecting the region moves northeastward today, light winds will gain a southerly component. Though there may be some showers/tstms in the western half of the region, probabilities were not high enough to include in the KCGI/KPAH TAFs. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...GM AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 640 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 640 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Updated aviation discussion only. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 A weak warm front, bisecting the PAH forecast area from northwest to southeast early today, is expected to move northeastward through the region and become diffuse during the day. This boundary will be motivated by a minor vort max skipping through the otherwise anticyclonic flow aloft. Most of the energy associated with the vort will be during the morning hours, after which the models indicate the feature will damp out as it moves eastward. The front will be the focus for some low level lift in a moist and unstable atmosphere (3-4k j/kg CAPE). Therefore, widely scattered to scattered showers and tstms should develop by late morning mainly west of the MS River, but also possibly in southwestern IL and the Purchase area of KY. However, by late afternoon, the coverage of deep moist convection should diminish rapidly with the loss of upper support. An isolated shower or tstm cannot be ruled out after 00Z, but we will continue to hold PoPs below the mentionable level (15%) for tonight. As the atmosphere destabilizes again during the day Sunday, a northern stream shortwave centered in southern Canada is forecast to be in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. This will tend to lower mid level heights to our north and push a surface boundary toward the PAH forecast area. Scattered showers and tstms should be expected Sunday, mainly for southeastern MO, southern IL, and southwestern IN. A storm or two could be strong there. The frontal boundary will sink southward partially through the region Sunday night, providing focus for deep moist convection to continue mainly ahead of it, albeit with a slowly stabilizing atmosphere. Slight to chance PoPs were maintained. As significantly drier, cooler air deepens behind the front Monday, pcpn will end rapidly from north to south. The southern half of our region has the highest PoPs then, up to 50%. Surface dewpoints are expected to surge back into the lower 70s by late today, even in southwestern IN. Expect lows in the tepid middle 70s this weekend, with highs in the lower half of the 90s, dropping off a bit Monday. Heat indices will probably exceed 100 for the southwestern half of the region today, and the whole region Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Models continue to drive a strong front southward into the deep south as a deep upper trof takes shape over the ne U.S. and Great Lakes regions. As a result, we`ll see H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. Confidence is high that we will be experiencing below normal temps by mid week, with high temps from near 80 to the lower half of the 80s. Likewise, humidity levels will be very comfortable. By Thursday, the models continue to dive a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/mid Mississippi River Valley regions within broad nwly flow aloft. Thinking is that most of the energy (and hence pops) will stay generally west and south of our area, and the atmosphere will be quite dry in the lower levels. Hence, will keep rain/shower chances on the low side, generally less than 30 percent. && .AVIATION... Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 VFR conditions can be expected in the next 24 hrs at the TAF sites. As a weak warm front bisecting the region moves northeastward today, light winds will gain a southerly component. Though there may be some showers/tstms in the western half of the region, probabilities were not high enough to include in the KCGI/KPAH TAFs. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...GM AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to align better with the current trends in observations, otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the Continental Divide. The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less extensive. Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in the day near that area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week, bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday, but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the forecast to end to upcoming work week. Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region. Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid 60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday looks to be a very warm day. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 LIFR or worse fog will burn off by around 13z this morning. VFR conditions will then take hold, with a few cumulus developing during the day at 5-6k feet agl. Fog will likely form again tonight between 06 and 13z; however, this will be more restricted to the deeper river valleys. Winds will remain light through the period as well. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to align better with the current trends in observations, otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the Continental Divide. The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less extensive. Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in the day near that area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week, bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday, but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the forecast to end to upcoming work week. Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region. Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid 60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday looks to be a very warm day. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 LIFR or worse fog will burn off by around 13z this morning. VFR conditions will then take hold, with a few cumulus developing during the day at 5-6k feet agl. Fog will likely form again tonight between 06 and 13z; however, this will be more restricted to the deeper river valleys. Winds will remain light through the period as well. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 643 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Well...Short term concerns are fog this morning and storms chances late Sunday. Surface high pressure over CLE will usher in slightly drier airmass today. UPS crossover method for fog shows the best potential will be over the Bluegrass Region and far southern KY. The positives for the fog are clear skies...moist llvls...light winds and the main inhibitor is the Friday strong mixing out. The high resolution models show the LTE 1 mile vsby is over the LEX area. Will be watching web cams...obs and enhanced fog loops. For now, not planning on headline, but likely will reissue the SPS at press time. For the rest of today...a dry day with zeniths today in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The MOS numbers seem a tad high due to moist ground from this past weeks rains. The high resolution models are initiating scattered convection in the late afternoon across our southwestern KY (I-24), but will keep area dry but will have 14 pops in Logan to Ohio Counties. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Sunday... Mid-level ridge from Show State to Land of 10K Lakes will break down as 560m low over Big Sky Country. This will drive a cold front towards the Ohio valley. The new 00z models show the ridge holding long enough to delay majority of precip til at least 18z. Plan to do a bunch of tweaking to the POPs and weather grids and hit most of the precip til Sunday evening. Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. With dew points climbing into the lower 70s...heat indices will climb to around 100,,,with low 100s across southern KY. .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)... Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night into Monday... ...Much Cooler and drier Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week... Well...by Sunday evening...classic summer time set up with 2 inch PWATs...MUCAPEs around 3K J/kg and weak wind field. Deterministic Models diverge with some taking most of the energy to the N with the stronger mid level winds and gap KY but others develops scattered convection from 22-09z. Should be a few strong to severe storms with wind and extremely heavy rain the threats. The current SPC outlook looks very reasonable especially considering DCAPE of 1000j/kg. Wind fields are extremely light in the entire column and combined with sultry airmass, localized flooding is possible. Looks like chc-sct pops Sunday evening especially across the nrn CWA. Monday the front slowly sags and will add another day of storms especially for the srn and ern 1/2 of the CWA. Highs Monday look to warm into the upper 80s with abundant cloud cover. overnight lows in the lower 70s. Tue-Thu... After the front goes through the region, we`ll see cooler and much drier weather return to the region. The 1000-500mb thickness drop precipitously as amplifying ridge across the silver state out dominates out west. Dew points will be dropping into the 50s (yes you read that right, the 50s) with afternoon highs 7 to 12 degrees below normal. Soundings would yield around 80 on Wednesday... Possibly 75 to 80 across northeastern areas. The upper trough will keep us cooler and drier through Thursday with a big Hudson Bay low the dominating feature for the east coast with torrid air across the desert southwest. Low temperatures will bottom out in the valley and better drainage areas such as Frankfort and Cynthiana. Lows will be in the 50s. Fri-weekend (from previous forecaster) The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part of the week. The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out west and a baggy trough axis in the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a notorious northwest flow. During this time, we`ll have to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge and then riding down into the Ohio Valley. While there has been a constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday, the models really struggle with these type flow regimes. Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 642 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light patchy fog may be possible for BWG and LEX, but will quickly burn off in the next hour or two. For today, winds are light out of the ENE. Scattered diurnal CU at FL040-060 are expected this afternoon. For tonight, expect clear conditions with light and variable winds. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........JDG/JD Long Term.........JDG/JD Aviation..........KJD/JD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 324 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 A weak warm front, bisecting the PAH forecast area from northwest to southeast early today, is expected to move northeastward through the region and become diffuse during the day. This boundary will be motivated by a minor vort max skipping through the otherwise anticyclonic flow aloft. Most of the energy associated with the vort will be during the morning hours, after which the models indicate the feature will damp out as it moves eastward. The front will be the focus for some low level lift in a moist and unstable atmosphere (3-4k j/kg CAPE). Therefore, widely scattered to scattered showers and tstms should develop by late morning mainly west of the MS River, but also possibly in southwestern IL and the Purchase area of KY. However, by late afternoon, the coverage of deep moist convection should diminish rapidly with the loss of upper support. An isolated shower or tstm cannot be ruled out after 00Z, but we will continue to hold PoPs below the mentionable level (15%) for tonight. As the atmosphere destabilizes again during the day Sunday, a northern stream shortwave centered in southern Canada is forecast to be in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. This will tend to lower mid level heights to our north and push a surface boundary toward the PAH forecast area. Scattered showers and tstms should be expected Sunday, mainly for southeastern MO, southern IL, and southwestern IN. A storm or two could be strong there. The frontal boundary will sink southward partially through the region Sunday night, providing focus for deep moist convection to continue mainly ahead of it, albeit with a slowly stabilizing atmosphere. Slight to chance PoPs were maintained. As significantly drier, cooler air deepens behind the front Monday, pcpn will end rapidly from north to south. The southern half of our region has the highest PoPs then, up to 50%. Surface dewpoints are expected to surge back into the lower 70s by late today, even in southwestern IN. Expect lows in the tepid middle 70s this weekend, with highs in the lower half of the 90s, dropping off a bit Monday. Heat indices will probably exceed 100 for the southwestern half of the region today, and the whole region Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Models continue to drive a strong front southward into the deep south as a deep upper trof takes shape over the ne U.S. and Great Lakes regions. As a result, we`ll see H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. Confidence is high that we will be experiencing below normal temps by mid week, with high temps from near 80 to the lower half of the 80s. Likewise, humidity levels will be very comfortable. By Thursday, the models continue to dive a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/mid Mississippi River Valley regions within broad nwly flow aloft. Thinking is that most of the energy (and hence pops) will stay generally west and south of our area, and the atmosphere will be quite dry in the lower levels. Hence, will keep rain/shower chances on the low side, generally less than 30 percent. && .AVIATION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 The main focus for the TAFs is VFR conditions and veering winds with the passage of a frontal boundary northeastward through the area. Though pcpn is possible today, probabilities of pcpn were not high enough to mention shower/tstm activity in the TAFs. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...GM AVIATION...KS/DB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 324 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 A weak warm front, bisecting the PAH forecast area from northwest to southeast early today, is expected to move northeastward through the region and become diffuse during the day. This boundary will be motivated by a minor vort max skipping through the otherwise anticyclonic flow aloft. Most of the energy associated with the vort will be during the morning hours, after which the models indicate the feature will damp out as it moves eastward. The front will be the focus for some low level lift in a moist and unstable atmosphere (3-4k j/kg CAPE). Therefore, widely scattered to scattered showers and tstms should develop by late morning mainly west of the MS River, but also possibly in southwestern IL and the Purchase area of KY. However, by late afternoon, the coverage of deep moist convection should diminish rapidly with the loss of upper support. An isolated shower or tstm cannot be ruled out after 00Z, but we will continue to hold PoPs below the mentionable level (15%) for tonight. As the atmosphere destabilizes again during the day Sunday, a northern stream shortwave centered in southern Canada is forecast to be in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. This will tend to lower mid level heights to our north and push a surface boundary toward the PAH forecast area. Scattered showers and tstms should be expected Sunday, mainly for southeastern MO, southern IL, and southwestern IN. A storm or two could be strong there. The frontal boundary will sink southward partially through the region Sunday night, providing focus for deep moist convection to continue mainly ahead of it, albeit with a slowly stabilizing atmosphere. Slight to chance PoPs were maintained. As significantly drier, cooler air deepens behind the front Monday, pcpn will end rapidly from north to south. The southern half of our region has the highest PoPs then, up to 50%. Surface dewpoints are expected to surge back into the lower 70s by late today, even in southwestern IN. Expect lows in the tepid middle 70s this weekend, with highs in the lower half of the 90s, dropping off a bit Monday. Heat indices will probably exceed 100 for the southwestern half of the region today, and the whole region Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Models continue to drive a strong front southward into the deep south as a deep upper trof takes shape over the ne U.S. and Great Lakes regions. As a result, we`ll see H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. Confidence is high that we will be experiencing below normal temps by mid week, with high temps from near 80 to the lower half of the 80s. Likewise, humidity levels will be very comfortable. By Thursday, the models continue to dive a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/mid Mississippi River Valley regions within broad nwly flow aloft. Thinking is that most of the energy (and hence pops) will stay generally west and south of our area, and the atmosphere will be quite dry in the lower levels. Hence, will keep rain/shower chances on the low side, generally less than 30 percent. && .AVIATION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 The main focus for the TAFs is VFR conditions and veering winds with the passage of a frontal boundary northeastward through the area. Though pcpn is possible today, probabilities of pcpn were not high enough to mention shower/tstm activity in the TAFs. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...GM AVIATION...KS/DB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the Continental Divide. The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less extensive. Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in the day near that area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week, bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday, but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the forecast to end to upcoming work week. Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region. Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid 60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday looks to be a very warm day. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Fog will be the main concern through 13z. Visibilities will gradually drop off, especially between 08 and 12z, with airport minimums likely achieved across all of the TAF sites at some point. KJKL will be more in question given its higher elevation; however, think there is enough confidence to go with a small window of LIFR or worse visibilities/ceilings between 11 and 13z. The fog will burn off by 13z or just after, with VFR conditions expected through the rest of the period, thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure building into the region. Winds will remain light through the period as well. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the Continental Divide. The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less extensive. Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in the day near that area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week, bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday, but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the forecast to end to upcoming work week. Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region. Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid 60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday looks to be a very warm day. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Fog will be the main concern through 13z. Visibilities will gradually drop off, especially between 08 and 12z, with airport minimums likely achieved across all of the TAF sites at some point. KJKL will be more in question given its higher elevation; however, think there is enough confidence to go with a small window of LIFR or worse visibilities/ceilings between 11 and 13z. The fog will burn off by 13z or just after, with VFR conditions expected through the rest of the period, thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure building into the region. Winds will remain light through the period as well. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 324 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Well...Short term concerns are fog this morning and storms chances late Sunday. Surface high pressure over CLE will usher in slightly drier airmass today. UPS crossover method for fog shows the best potential will be over the Bluegrass Region and far southern KY. The positives for the fog are clear skies...moist llvls...light winds and the main inhibitor is the Friday strong mixing out. The high resolution models show the LTE 1 mile vsby is over the LEX area. Will be watching web cams...obs and enhanced fog loops. For now, not planning on headline, but likely will reissue the SPS at press time. For the rest of today...a dry day with zeniths today in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The MOS numbers seem a tad high due to moist ground from this past weeks rains. The high resolution models are initiating scattered convection in the late afternoon across our southwestern KY (I-24), but will keep area dry but will have 14 pops in Logan to Ohio Counties. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Sunday... Mid-level ridge from Show State to Land of 10K Lakes will break down as 560m low over Big Sky Country. This will drive a cold front towards the Ohio valley. The new 00z models show the ridge holding long enough to delay majority of precip til at least 18z. Plan to do a bunch of tweaking to the POPs and weather grids and hit most of the precip til Sunday evening. Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. With dew points climbing into the lower 70s...heat indices will climb to around 100,,,with low 100s across southern KY. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night into Monday... ...Much Cooler and drier Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week... Well...by Sunday evening...classic summer time set up with 2 inch PWATs...MUCAPEs around 3K J/kg and weak wind field. Deterministic Models diverge with some taking most of the energy to the N with the stronger mid level winds and gap KY but others develops scattered convection from 22-09z. Should be a few strong to severe storms with wind and extremely heavy rain the threats. The current SPC outlook looks very reasonable especially considering DCAPE of 1000j/kg. Wind fields are extremely light in the entire column and combined with sultry airmass, localized flooding is possible. Looks like chc-sct pops Sunday evening especially across the nrn CWA. Monday the front slowly sags and will add another day of storms especially for the srn and ern 1/2 of the CWA. Highs Monday look to warm into the upper 80s with abundant cloud cover. overnight lows in the lower 70s. Tue-Thu... After the front goes through the region, we`ll see cooler and much drier weather return to the region. The 1000-500mb thickness drop precipitously as amplifying ridge across the silver state out dominates out west. Dew points will be dropping into the 50s (yes you read that right, the 50s) with afternoon highs 7 to 12 degrees below normal. Soundings would yield around 80 on Wednesday... Possibly 75 to 80 across northeastern areas. The upper trough will keep us cooler and drier through Thursday with a big Hudson Bay low the dominating feature for the east coast with torrid air across the desert southwest. Low temperatures will bottom out in the valley and better drainage areas such as Frankfort and Cynthiana. Lows will be in the 50s. Fri-weekend (from previous forecaster) The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part of the week. The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out west and a baggy trough axis in the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a notorious northwest flow. During this time, we`ll have to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge and then riding down into the Ohio Valley. While there has been a constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday, the models really struggle with these type flow regimes. Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. The exception may come at LEX and BWG this morning where some light fog may be possible. Dewpoints mixed out into the mid 60s yesterday afternoon, which should help to keep temperatures above the crossover temperatures. However, with light winds and clear skies, high end MVFR or briefly IFR visibilities can`t be ruled out. For today, winds are light out of the ENE. Scattered diurnal CU at FL040-060 are expected this afternoon. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........JDG/JMD Long Term.........JDG/MJ/JMD Aviation..........KJD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 324 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Well...Short term concerns are fog this morning and storms chances late Sunday. Surface high pressure over CLE will usher in slightly drier airmass today. UPS crossover method for fog shows the best potential will be over the Bluegrass Region and far southern KY. The positives for the fog are clear skies...moist llvls...light winds and the main inhibitor is the Friday strong mixing out. The high resolution models show the LTE 1 mile vsby is over the LEX area. Will be watching web cams...obs and enhanced fog loops. For now, not planning on headline, but likely will reissue the SPS at press time. For the rest of today...a dry day with zeniths today in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The MOS numbers seem a tad high due to moist ground from this past weeks rains. The high resolution models are initiating scattered convection in the late afternoon across our southwestern KY (I-24), but will keep area dry but will have 14 pops in Logan to Ohio Counties. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Sunday... Mid-level ridge from Show State to Land of 10K Lakes will break down as 560m low over Big Sky Country. This will drive a cold front towards the Ohio valley. The new 00z models show the ridge holding long enough to delay majority of precip til at least 18z. Plan to do a bunch of tweaking to the POPs and weather grids and hit most of the precip til Sunday evening. Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. With dew points climbing into the lower 70s...heat indices will climb to around 100,,,with low 100s across southern KY. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 ...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night into Monday... ...Much Cooler and drier Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week... Well...by Sunday evening...classic summer time set up with 2 inch PWATs...MUCAPEs around 3K J/kg and weak wind field. Deterministic Models diverge with some taking most of the energy to the N with the stronger mid level winds and gap KY but others develops scattered convection from 22-09z. Should be a few strong to severe storms with wind and extremely heavy rain the threats. The current SPC outlook looks very reasonable especially considering DCAPE of 1000j/kg. Wind fields are extremely light in the entire column and combined with sultry airmass, localized flooding is possible. Looks like chc-sct pops Sunday evening especially across the nrn CWA. Monday the front slowly sags and will add another day of storms especially for the srn and ern 1/2 of the CWA. Highs Monday look to warm into the upper 80s with abundant cloud cover. overnight lows in the lower 70s. Tue-Thu... After the front goes through the region, we`ll see cooler and much drier weather return to the region. The 1000-500mb thickness drop precipitously as amplifying ridge across the silver state out dominates out west. Dew points will be dropping into the 50s (yes you read that right, the 50s) with afternoon highs 7 to 12 degrees below normal. Soundings would yield around 80 on Wednesday... Possibly 75 to 80 across northeastern areas. The upper trough will keep us cooler and drier through Thursday with a big Hudson Bay low the dominating feature for the east coast with torrid air across the desert southwest. Low temperatures will bottom out in the valley and better drainage areas such as Frankfort and Cynthiana. Lows will be in the 50s. Fri-weekend (from previous forecaster) The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part of the week. The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out west and a baggy trough axis in the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a notorious northwest flow. During this time, we`ll have to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge and then riding down into the Ohio Valley. While there has been a constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday, the models really struggle with these type flow regimes. Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. The exception may come at LEX and BWG this morning where some light fog may be possible. Dewpoints mixed out into the mid 60s yesterday afternoon, which should help to keep temperatures above the crossover temperatures. However, with light winds and clear skies, high end MVFR or briefly IFR visibilities can`t be ruled out. For today, winds are light out of the ENE. Scattered diurnal CU at FL040-060 are expected this afternoon. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........JDG/JMD Long Term.........JDG/MJ/JMD Aviation..........KJD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 150 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 150 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 The forecast remains on track. Some local observations and a few webcams are starting to reflect dropping visibilities. Mainly freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points to align better with the trends in observations. UPDATE Issued at 1024 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 SOME PESKY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE FALL A BIT. WITH THAT SAID...OPTING TO CONTINUE ON WITH THE SPS AND HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FOG SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT. STILL POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED AN UPGRADE LATER...BUT NOT READY TO GO FOR IT AT THIS POINT WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. A FEW VALLEYS LOCATIONS SUCH AS PAINTSVILLE AND QUICKSAND HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S ALREADY...SO DID DROP THE VALLEYS A FEW MORE DEGREES TO AROUND 60. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS POINT. UPDATE Issued at 818 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 We had some late day mixing that sent dewpoints down into the mid 60s for most of the area. This will put cross over temperatures for fog tonight a bit lower than earlier anticipated. However, with that said, based on the fact that some valley locations have already fallen into the lower 70s this evening, opted to bump lows downward, especially in the valleys. Thus, now we are looking at low 60s for most valley locations. This should fall under the lower cross over temperatures, but perhaps we may be dealing with a more shallow dense fog layer, more confined to the valleys tonight. Thus, have cut back on fog on the ridges and beefed up the fog wording in the valleys. Guidance continues to hit fog hard just about everywhere, but plan to hold off on any fog advisory for now and see how temperatures respond in the next few hours. If temperatures continue to drop off faster than expected, we may end up cooler tonight and thus, a thicker fog layer and more of a need for an advisory. Stay tuned. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Surface analysis shows front still remains across portions of northern and central KY this afternoon. Therefore we do remain in a fairly warm and moist airmass this afternoon. Guidance shows a reasonable inversion remaining in place and this seems to be inhibiting any shower or storm development this afternoon. Also low stratus hung in across a good portion of eastern KY though the early afternoon. Did keep a isolated chance as some of the data suggested some omega in the layer as a weak wave passes through. What is left of the previously mentioned boundary is expected to progress south of the region tonight, as a surface high builds south and centers across the Mid Atlantic. The skies are expected to clear tonight as CU looses the diurnal heating. These skies will combine with low level moisture in place and inversion to lead to patchy and eventually areas of dense fog. Therefore will mention this in a HWO and hoist a SPS as well. In terms of models both the GFS/NAM soundings have this thought and therefore confidence is building. Overall upper level pattern we are expecting to see rising heights as upper level high begins pulling back to the east across. Therefore while the weak front drops south not much reprieve temp wise will be seen across the region, as the models show 591 height building northeast. While we do remain dry the temps are expected to climb into the upper 80s for Saturday. Saturday night we see clear skies and potential for valley fog, while surface high pressure skits the region. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper level ridge that has been in place over the southern CONUS for several days will finally start to break down on Sunday as a strong upper level low drags a cold front towards the region. This upper level low will track eastward along the US/Canadian border Sunday and Monday before lifting into the Eastern Canadian provinces. As this occurs, the trof will deepen and pass through the OH Valley Wednesday while nudging the ridge westward. Weak ridging will move into place on Wednesday before a quick moving shortwave enters East Kentucky Thursday evening. Confidence is low regarding this shortwave as the operational GFS and ECMWF differ in speed and placement. Decided to stay close to a general blend of model guidance in the late part of the period. At the surface, moisture and precipitation chances will increase Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the approaching cold frontal boundary. This boundary is progged to move through the region Sunday night into Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front during this time period. A few additional showers may be possible Tuesday evening as the trof axis passes by overhead. Cooler and drier air will then filter into Kentucky by Wednesday dropping dew points down into the 50s. This will feel much more comfortable than the past several days with 70 degree dew points. Dry weather will persist through Thursday morning before a quick moving low moves into East Kentucky Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Fog will be the main concern through 13z. Visibilities will gradually drop off, especially between 08 and 12z, with airport minimums likely achieved across all of the TAF sites at some point. KJKL will be more in question given its higher elevation; however, think there is enough confidence to go with a small window of LIFR or worse visibilities/ceilings between 11 and 13z. The fog will burn off by 13z or just after, with VFR conditions expected through the rest of the period, thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure building into the region. Winds will remain light through the period as well. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 150 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 150 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 The forecast remains on track. Some local observations and a few webcams are starting to reflect dropping visibilities. Mainly freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points to align better with the trends in observations. UPDATE Issued at 1024 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 SOME PESKY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE FALL A BIT. WITH THAT SAID...OPTING TO CONTINUE ON WITH THE SPS AND HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FOG SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT. STILL POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED AN UPGRADE LATER...BUT NOT READY TO GO FOR IT AT THIS POINT WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. A FEW VALLEYS LOCATIONS SUCH AS PAINTSVILLE AND QUICKSAND HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S ALREADY...SO DID DROP THE VALLEYS A FEW MORE DEGREES TO AROUND 60. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS POINT. UPDATE Issued at 818 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 We had some late day mixing that sent dewpoints down into the mid 60s for most of the area. This will put cross over temperatures for fog tonight a bit lower than earlier anticipated. However, with that said, based on the fact that some valley locations have already fallen into the lower 70s this evening, opted to bump lows downward, especially in the valleys. Thus, now we are looking at low 60s for most valley locations. This should fall under the lower cross over temperatures, but perhaps we may be dealing with a more shallow dense fog layer, more confined to the valleys tonight. Thus, have cut back on fog on the ridges and beefed up the fog wording in the valleys. Guidance continues to hit fog hard just about everywhere, but plan to hold off on any fog advisory for now and see how temperatures respond in the next few hours. If temperatures continue to drop off faster than expected, we may end up cooler tonight and thus, a thicker fog layer and more of a need for an advisory. Stay tuned. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Surface analysis shows front still remains across portions of northern and central KY this afternoon. Therefore we do remain in a fairly warm and moist airmass this afternoon. Guidance shows a reasonable inversion remaining in place and this seems to be inhibiting any shower or storm development this afternoon. Also low stratus hung in across a good portion of eastern KY though the early afternoon. Did keep a isolated chance as some of the data suggested some omega in the layer as a weak wave passes through. What is left of the previously mentioned boundary is expected to progress south of the region tonight, as a surface high builds south and centers across the Mid Atlantic. The skies are expected to clear tonight as CU looses the diurnal heating. These skies will combine with low level moisture in place and inversion to lead to patchy and eventually areas of dense fog. Therefore will mention this in a HWO and hoist a SPS as well. In terms of models both the GFS/NAM soundings have this thought and therefore confidence is building. Overall upper level pattern we are expecting to see rising heights as upper level high begins pulling back to the east across. Therefore while the weak front drops south not much reprieve temp wise will be seen across the region, as the models show 591 height building northeast. While we do remain dry the temps are expected to climb into the upper 80s for Saturday. Saturday night we see clear skies and potential for valley fog, while surface high pressure skits the region. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper level ridge that has been in place over the southern CONUS for several days will finally start to break down on Sunday as a strong upper level low drags a cold front towards the region. This upper level low will track eastward along the US/Canadian border Sunday and Monday before lifting into the Eastern Canadian provinces. As this occurs, the trof will deepen and pass through the OH Valley Wednesday while nudging the ridge westward. Weak ridging will move into place on Wednesday before a quick moving shortwave enters East Kentucky Thursday evening. Confidence is low regarding this shortwave as the operational GFS and ECMWF differ in speed and placement. Decided to stay close to a general blend of model guidance in the late part of the period. At the surface, moisture and precipitation chances will increase Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the approaching cold frontal boundary. This boundary is progged to move through the region Sunday night into Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front during this time period. A few additional showers may be possible Tuesday evening as the trof axis passes by overhead. Cooler and drier air will then filter into Kentucky by Wednesday dropping dew points down into the 50s. This will feel much more comfortable than the past several days with 70 degree dew points. Dry weather will persist through Thursday morning before a quick moving low moves into East Kentucky Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Fog will be the main concern through 13z. Visibilities will gradually drop off, especially between 08 and 12z, with airport minimums likely achieved across all of the TAF sites at some point. KJKL will be more in question given its higher elevation; however, think there is enough confidence to go with a small window of LIFR or worse visibilities/ceilings between 11 and 13z. The fog will burn off by 13z or just after, with VFR conditions expected through the rest of the period, thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure building into the region. Winds will remain light through the period as well. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 105 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 942 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 The forecast is generally on track tonight. The main issue in the near term will be the potential for fog overnight. Most of the short term guidance this evening suggests that far south and east central Kentucky will stand the best chance for seeing some dense fog towards morning. Just made some minor adjustments to the fog grids to nudge the areas of dense fog wording a bit more to the southeast. .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)... Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 ...Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight and Early Saturday Morning... Frontal boundary has not made much progress to the south today. This morning`s low clouds have mixed out, but have been replaced by a rather dense Cu field. Temperatures have warmed into the 80s, with the cool spots in the NE/E sections and the warmer spots residing in our southwestern areas. For the remainder of the afternoon, we expect generally partly cloudy skies with afternoon temps maxing out in the next 1-2 hours. This evening should be rather tranquil with temperatures falling into the upper 70s. For tonight, high pressure will nose into the region from the Great Lakes states. Drier air aloft will continue to push in while a shallow layer of dry air may push into southern Indiana. Model proximity soundings show a temperature inversion developing overnight which will likely trap moisture underneath. The combination of clear skies, light winds, and the inversion with moisture underneath will likely result in fog developing. At this time, it appears that patchy dense fog may be more common across southern Indiana and portions of northern KY. However, more widespread dense fog may develop across mainly southern KY. For now, plan on issuing a Special Weather Statement to heighten awareness of the fog potential overnight. Should conditions deteriorate more than forecast tonight, a Dense Fog Advisory may be required later tonight. Lows will range from 65 to 70 in most areas, a few of our typical cool spots may be slightly cooler. Dry conditions are expected across the region for Saturday. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. We may see a risk of an isolated shower or storm in the late afternoon across our southwest sections, though it appears convection may be more focused out in the I-24 corridor of west KY. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 ...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday and into Monday... ...Much Cooler Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week... Mid-level ridge axis will break down across the region late this weekend as a strong short wave trough moves through the northern US and southern Canada. This will drive a cold front through the region Sunday and into Monday. This should result in a round of showers and thunderstorms from late Sunday through the day on Monday. Combination of moderate instability along with good convergence along the boundary could result in some strong to possibly severe storms during that period. Main threats look to be damaging winds at this time. We plan on highlighting this threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. After the front goes through the region, we`ll see drier and cooler weather return to the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will be cooler with readings topping out in the mid-upper 80s, but Wednesday will be the coolest day with highs only reaching the upper 70s to around 80 in most areas. Dewpoints will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s which will be more refreshing than the low-mid 70s dewpoints that we`ve seen of late. The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part of the week. The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out west and a baggy trough axis in the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a notorious northwest flow. During this time, we`ll have to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge and then riding down into the Ohio Valley. While there has been a constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday, the models really struggle with these type flow regimes. Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. The exception may come at LEX and BWG this morning where some light fog may be possible. Dewpoints mixed out into the mid 60s yesterday afternoon, which should help to keep temperatures above the crossover temperatures. However, with light winds and clear skies, high end MVFR or briefly IFR visibilities can`t be ruled out. For today, winds are light out of the ENE. Scattered diurnal CU at FL040-060 are expected this afternoon. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........EER Short Term.....MJ Long Term......MJ Aviation.......KJD/JD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1140 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 A warm front draped across southeast Missouri into northwest Tennessee will remain fairly stationary tonight. Convection over southeast Missouri should decrease in coverage into the evening hours with the loss in heating. Models show the front moving back eastward very slowly Saturday into Saturday night. This will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances from southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois and far west Kentucky on Saturday, with another lull in activity Saturday night, then showers and storms will be possible across the entire PAH forecast area on Sunday. With our region in the warm sector and an approaching cold front, convection will have a little better chance of continuing into the overnight hours Sunday. With the warm front moving across the region early in the weekend, our respite from the uncomfortable humidity levels will be short lived. Dew points will climb back into the lower 70s across most of our region on Saturday and the entire area on Sunday. With high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range, heat indices will climb back into the 100 to 105 degree range across all but east and northeast portions of the PAH fa on Saturday, and across the entire area on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, at the start of the new workweek, with a frontal boundary draped along/in the vicinity of the Ohio River Valley. It encounters a still steamy/charged environment over our FA, from the weekend ridging/upper High. The models drive the front southward across the FA as waves of energy barrel around the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. As a result, we`ll see H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs, and this morning`s resolutions are no different. Where they do differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. But even this feature is markedly less so modeled today, by the GFS, vs yesterday same time. So we like the direction our collaborative agreement goes, minimizing or altogether eliminating Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night/Wed, with the broad blend of features consistently featuring cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame. With growing confidence, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, by Days 6-7, the models do insist upon diving a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 No significant changes from the 00z TAF issuance, with the main focus toward veering winds with the passage of the frontal boundary eastward through the area. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1140 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 A warm front draped across southeast Missouri into northwest Tennessee will remain fairly stationary tonight. Convection over southeast Missouri should decrease in coverage into the evening hours with the loss in heating. Models show the front moving back eastward very slowly Saturday into Saturday night. This will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances from southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois and far west Kentucky on Saturday, with another lull in activity Saturday night, then showers and storms will be possible across the entire PAH forecast area on Sunday. With our region in the warm sector and an approaching cold front, convection will have a little better chance of continuing into the overnight hours Sunday. With the warm front moving across the region early in the weekend, our respite from the uncomfortable humidity levels will be short lived. Dew points will climb back into the lower 70s across most of our region on Saturday and the entire area on Sunday. With high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range, heat indices will climb back into the 100 to 105 degree range across all but east and northeast portions of the PAH fa on Saturday, and across the entire area on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, at the start of the new workweek, with a frontal boundary draped along/in the vicinity of the Ohio River Valley. It encounters a still steamy/charged environment over our FA, from the weekend ridging/upper High. The models drive the front southward across the FA as waves of energy barrel around the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. As a result, we`ll see H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs, and this morning`s resolutions are no different. Where they do differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. But even this feature is markedly less so modeled today, by the GFS, vs yesterday same time. So we like the direction our collaborative agreement goes, minimizing or altogether eliminating Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night/Wed, with the broad blend of features consistently featuring cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame. With growing confidence, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, by Days 6-7, the models do insist upon diving a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 No significant changes from the 00z TAF issuance, with the main focus toward veering winds with the passage of the frontal boundary eastward through the area. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 1024 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1024 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 SOME PESKY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE FALL A BIT. WITH THAT SAID...OPTING TO CONTINUE ON WITH THE SPS AND HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FOG SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT. STILL POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED AN UPGRADE LATER...BUT NOT READY TO GO FOR IT AT THIS POINT WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. A FEW VALLEYS LOCATIONS SUCH AS PAINTSVILLE AND QUICKSAND HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S ALREADY...SO DID DROP THE VALLEYS A FEW MORE DEGREES TO AROUND 60. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS POINT. UPDATE Issued at 818 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 We had some late day mixing that sent dewpoints down into the mid 60s for most of the area. This will put cross over temperatures for fog tonight a bit lower than earlier anticipated. However, with that said, based on the fact that some valley locations have already fallen into the lower 70s this evening, opted to bump lows downward, especially in the valleys. Thus, now we are looking at low 60s for most valley locations. This should fall under the lower cross over temperatures, but perhaps we may be dealing with a more shallow dense fog layer, more confined to the valleys tonight. Thus, have cut back on fog on the ridges and beefed up the fog wording in the valleys. Guidance continues to hit fog hard just about everywhere, but plan to hold off on any fog advisory for now and see how temperatures respond in the next few hours. If temperatures continue to drop off faster than expected, we may end up cooler tonight and thus, a thicker fog layer and more of a need for an advisory. Stay tuned. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Surface analysis shows front still remains across portions of northern and central KY this afternoon. Therefore we do remain in a fairly warm and moist airmass this afternoon. Guidance shows a reasonable inversion remaining in place and this seems to be inhibiting any shower or storm development this afternoon. Also low stratus hung in across a good portion of eastern KY though the early afternoon. Did keep a isolated chance as some of the data suggested some omega in the layer as a weak wave passes through. What is left of the previously mentioned boundary is expected to progress south of the region tonight, as a surface high builds south and centers across the Mid Atlantic. The skies are expected to clear tonight as CU looses the diurnal heating. These skies will combine with low level moisture in place and inversion to lead to patchy and eventually areas of dense fog. Therefore will mention this in a HWO and hoist a SPS as well. In terms of models both the GFS/NAM soundings have this thought and therefore confidence is building. Overall upper level pattern we are expecting to see rising heights as upper level high begins pulling back to the east across. Therefore while the weak front drops south not much reprieve temp wise will be seen across the region, as the models show 591 height building northeast. While we do remain dry the temps are expected to climb into the upper 80s for Saturday. Saturday night we see clear skies and potential for valley fog, while surface high pressure skits the region. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper level ridge that has been in place over the southern CONUS for several days will finally start to break down on Sunday as a strong upper level low drags a cold front towards the region. This upper level low will track eastward along the US/Canadian border Sunday and Monday before lifting into the Eastern Canadian provinces. As this occurs, the trof will deepen and pass through the OH Valley Wednesday while nudging the ridge westward. Weak ridging will move into place on Wednesday before a quick moving shortwave enters East Kentucky Thursday evening. Confidence is low regarding this shortwave as the operational GFS and ECMWF differ in speed and placement. Decided to stay close to a general blend of model guidance in the late part of the period. At the surface, moisture and precipitation chances will increase Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the approaching cold frontal boundary. This boundary is progged to move through the region Sunday night into Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front during this time period. A few additional showers may be possible Tuesday evening as the trof axis passes by overhead. Cooler and drier air will then filter into Kentucky by Wednesday dropping dew points down into the 50s. This will feel much more comfortable than the past several days with 70 degree dew points. Dry weather will persist through Thursday morning before a quick moving low moves into East Kentucky Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure settling over the area tonight will allow for good radiational cooling overnight into Saturday morning. With modest moisture remaining in the low levels, some dense fog will likely impact most TAF sites tonight. Exception may be on the ridgetops. Either way, expect cigs and visbys under airport minimums late tonight. A return to VFR conditions is expected shortly after daybreak Saturday. Light winds will continue through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...KAS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 945 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 942 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 The forecast is generally on track tonight. The main issue in the near term will be the potential for fog overnight. Most of the short term guidance this evening suggests that far south and east central Kentucky will stand the best chance for seeing some dense fog towards morning. Just made some minor adjustments to the fog grids to nudge the areas of dense fog wording a bit more to the southeast. .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)... Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 ...Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight and Early Saturday Morning... Frontal boundary has not made much progress to the south today. This morning`s low clouds have mixed out, but have been replaced by a rather dense Cu field. Temperatures have warmed into the 80s, with the cool spots in the NE/E sections and the warmer spots residing in our southwestern areas. For the remainder of the afternoon, we expect generally partly cloudy skies with afternoon temps maxing out in the next 1-2 hours. This evening should be rather tranquil with temperatures falling into the upper 70s. For tonight, high pressure will nose into the region from the Great Lakes states. Drier air aloft will continue to push in while a shallow layer of dry air may push into southern Indiana. Model proximity soundings show a temperature inversion developing overnight which will likely trap moisture underneath. The combination of clear skies, light winds, and the inversion with moisture underneath will likely result in fog developing. At this time, it appears that patchy dense fog may be more common across southern Indiana and portions of northern KY. However, more widespread dense fog may develop across mainly southern KY. For now, plan on issuing a Special Weather Statement to heighten awareness of the fog potential overnight. Should conditions deteriorate more than forecast tonight, a Dense Fog Advisory may be required later tonight. Lows will range from 65 to 70 in most areas, a few of our typical cool spots may be slightly cooler. Dry conditions are expected across the region for Saturday. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. We may see a risk of an isolated shower or storm in the late afternoon across our southwest sections, though it appears convection may be more focused out in the I-24 corridor of west KY. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 ...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday and into Monday... ...Much Cooler Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week... Mid-level ridge axis will break down across the region late this weekend as a strong short wave trough moves through the northern US and southern Canada. This will drive a cold front through the region Sunday and into Monday. This should result in a round of showers and thunderstorms from late Sunday through the day on Monday. Combination of moderate instability along with good convergence along the boundary could result in some strong to possibly severe storms during that period. Main threats look to be damaging winds at this time. We plan on highlighting this threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. After the front goes through the region, we`ll see drier and cooler weather return to the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will be cooler with readings topping out in the mid-upper 80s, but Wednesday will be the coolest day with highs only reaching the upper 70s to around 80 in most areas. Dewpoints will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s which will be more refreshing than the low-mid 70s dewpoints that we`ve seen of late. The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part of the week. The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out west and a baggy trough axis in the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a notorious northwest flow. During this time, we`ll have to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge and then riding down into the Ohio Valley. While there has been a constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday, the models really struggle with these type flow regimes. Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 656 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Low level moisture remains across the region this evening despite the dry air aloft moving in. Skies are expected to become mostly clear overnight with winds becoming light and variable to calm. The main concern for the overnight hours will be the potential for fog. Visibilities are expected to drop to MVFR at SDF and LEX and into the IFR range at BWG. Any fog that develops will dissipate shortly after sunrise tomorrow. The remainder of tomorrow will feature light winds and mostly clear skies. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........EER Short Term.....MJ Long Term......MJ Aviation.......EER
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 745 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 A warm front draped across southeast Missouri into northwest Tennessee will remain fairly stationary tonight. Convection over southeast Missouri should decrease in coverage into the evening hours with the loss in heating. Models show the front moving back eastward very slowly Saturday into Saturday night. This will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances from southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois and far west Kentucky on Saturday, with another lull in activity Saturday night, then showers and storms will be possible across the entire PAH forecast area on Sunday. With our region in the warm sector and an approaching cold front, convection will have a little better chance of continuing into the overnight hours Sunday. With the warm front moving across the region early in the weekend, our respite from the uncomfortable humidity levels will be short lived. Dew points will climb back into the lower 70s across most of our region on Saturday and the entire area on Sunday. With high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range, heat indices will climb back into the 100 to 105 degree range across all but east and northeast portions of the PAH fa on Saturday, and across the entire area on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, at the start of the new workweek, with a frontal boundary draped along/in the vicinity of the Ohio River Valley. It encounters a still steamy/charged environment over our FA, from the weekend ridging/upper High. The models drive the front southward across the FA as waves of energy barrel around the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. As a result, we`ll see H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs, and this morning`s resolutions are no different. Where they do differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. But even this feature is markedly less so modeled today, by the GFS, vs yesterday same time. So we like the direction our collaborative agreement goes, minimizing or altogether eliminating Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night/Wed, with the broad blend of features consistently featuring cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame. With growing confidence, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, by Days 6-7, the models do insist upon diving a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 745 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Keeping VFR conditions in place as majority of WFO PAH TAF sites will will remain east of the stalled out frontal boundary in Southern Missouri through forecast period. Main adjustments will be for change in wind direction and the addition of lower cloud decks at KCGI and KPAH as the boundary moves east with time. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 818 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 818 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 We had some late day mixing that sent dewpoints down into the mid 60s for most of the area. This will put cross over temperatures for fog tonight a bit lower than earlier anticipated. However, with that said, based on the fact that some valley locations have already fallen into the lower 70s this evening, opted to bump lows downward, especially in the valleys. Thus, now we are looking at low 60s for most valley locations. This should fall under the lower cross over temperatures, but perhaps we may be dealing with a more shallow dense fog layer, more confined to the valleys tonight. Thus, have cut back on fog on the ridges and beefed up the fog wording in the valleys. Guidance continues to hit fog hard just about everywhere, but plan to hold off on any fog advisory for now and see how temperatures respond in the next few hours. If temperatures continue to drop off faster than expected, we may end up cooler tonight and thus, a thicker fog layer and more of a need for an advisory. Stay tuned. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Surface analysis shows front still remains across portions of northern and central KY this afternoon. Therefore we do remain in a fairly warm and moist airmass this afternoon. Guidance shows a reasonable inversion remaining in place and this seems to be inhibiting any shower or storm development this afternoon. Also low stratus hung in across a good portion of eastern KY though the early afternoon. Did keep a isolated chance as some of the data suggested some omega in the layer as a weak wave passes through. What is left of the previously mentioned boundary is expected to progress south of the region tonight, as a surface high builds south and centers across the Mid Atlantic. The skies are expected to clear tonight as CU looses the diurnal heating. These skies will combine with low level moisture in place and inversion to lead to patchy and eventually areas of dense fog. Therefore will mention this in a HWO and hoist a SPS as well. In terms of models both the GFS/NAM soundings have this thought and therefore confidence is building. Overall upper level pattern we are expecting to see rising heights as upper level high begins pulling back to the east across. Therefore while the weak front drops south not much reprieve temp wise will be seen across the region, as the models show 591 height building northeast. While we do remain dry the temps are expected to climb into the upper 80s for Saturday. Saturday night we see clear skies and potential for valley fog, while surface high pressure skits the region. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper level ridge that has been in place over the southern CONUS for several days will finally start to break down on Sunday as a strong upper level low drags a cold front towards the region. This upper level low will track eastward along the US/Canadian border Sunday and Monday before lifting into the Eastern Canadian provinces. As this occurs, the trof will deepen and pass through the OH Valley Wednesday while nudging the ridge westward. Weak ridging will move into place on Wednesday before a quick moving shortwave enters East Kentucky Thursday evening. Confidence is low regarding this shortwave as the operational GFS and ECMWF differ in speed and placement. Decided to stay close to a general blend of model guidance in the late part of the period. At the surface, moisture and precipitation chances will increase Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the approaching cold frontal boundary. This boundary is progged to move through the region Sunday night into Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front during this time period. A few additional showers may be possible Tuesday evening as the trof axis passes by overhead. Cooler and drier air will then filter into Kentucky by Wednesday dropping dew points down into the 50s. This will feel much more comfortable than the past several days with 70 degree dew points. Dry weather will persist through Thursday morning before a quick moving low moves into East Kentucky Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure settling over the area tonight will allow for good radiational cooling overnight into Saturday morning. With modest moisture remaining in the low levels, some dense fog will likely impact most TAF sites tonight. Exception may be on the ridgetops. Either way, expect cigs and visbys under airport minimums late tonight. A return to VFR conditions is expected shortly after daybreak Saturday. Light winds will continue through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...KAS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 818 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 818 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 We had some late day mixing that sent dewpoints down into the mid 60s for most of the area. This will put cross over temperatures for fog tonight a bit lower than earlier anticipated. However, with that said, based on the fact that some valley locations have already fallen into the lower 70s this evening, opted to bump lows downward, especially in the valleys. Thus, now we are looking at low 60s for most valley locations. This should fall under the lower cross over temperatures, but perhaps we may be dealing with a more shallow dense fog layer, more confined to the valleys tonight. Thus, have cut back on fog on the ridges and beefed up the fog wording in the valleys. Guidance continues to hit fog hard just about everywhere, but plan to hold off on any fog advisory for now and see how temperatures respond in the next few hours. If temperatures continue to drop off faster than expected, we may end up cooler tonight and thus, a thicker fog layer and more of a need for an advisory. Stay tuned. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Surface analysis shows front still remains across portions of northern and central KY this afternoon. Therefore we do remain in a fairly warm and moist airmass this afternoon. Guidance shows a reasonable inversion remaining in place and this seems to be inhibiting any shower or storm development this afternoon. Also low stratus hung in across a good portion of eastern KY though the early afternoon. Did keep a isolated chance as some of the data suggested some omega in the layer as a weak wave passes through. What is left of the previously mentioned boundary is expected to progress south of the region tonight, as a surface high builds south and centers across the Mid Atlantic. The skies are expected to clear tonight as CU looses the diurnal heating. These skies will combine with low level moisture in place and inversion to lead to patchy and eventually areas of dense fog. Therefore will mention this in a HWO and hoist a SPS as well. In terms of models both the GFS/NAM soundings have this thought and therefore confidence is building. Overall upper level pattern we are expecting to see rising heights as upper level high begins pulling back to the east across. Therefore while the weak front drops south not much reprieve temp wise will be seen across the region, as the models show 591 height building northeast. While we do remain dry the temps are expected to climb into the upper 80s for Saturday. Saturday night we see clear skies and potential for valley fog, while surface high pressure skits the region. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper level ridge that has been in place over the southern CONUS for several days will finally start to break down on Sunday as a strong upper level low drags a cold front towards the region. This upper level low will track eastward along the US/Canadian border Sunday and Monday before lifting into the Eastern Canadian provinces. As this occurs, the trof will deepen and pass through the OH Valley Wednesday while nudging the ridge westward. Weak ridging will move into place on Wednesday before a quick moving shortwave enters East Kentucky Thursday evening. Confidence is low regarding this shortwave as the operational GFS and ECMWF differ in speed and placement. Decided to stay close to a general blend of model guidance in the late part of the period. At the surface, moisture and precipitation chances will increase Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the approaching cold frontal boundary. This boundary is progged to move through the region Sunday night into Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front during this time period. A few additional showers may be possible Tuesday evening as the trof axis passes by overhead. Cooler and drier air will then filter into Kentucky by Wednesday dropping dew points down into the 50s. This will feel much more comfortable than the past several days with 70 degree dew points. Dry weather will persist through Thursday morning before a quick moving low moves into East Kentucky Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure settling over the area tonight will allow for good radiational cooling overnight into Saturday morning. With modest moisture remaining in the low levels, some dense fog will likely impact most TAF sites tonight. Exception may be on the ridgetops. Either way, expect cigs and visbys under airport minimums late tonight. A return to VFR conditions is expected shortly after daybreak Saturday. Light winds will continue through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...KAS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 657 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)... Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 ...Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight and Early Saturday Morning... Frontal boundary has not made much progress to the south today. This morning`s low clouds have mixed out, but have been replaced by a rather dense Cu field. Temperatures have warmed into the 80s, with the cool spots in the NE/E sections and the warmer spots residing in our southwestern areas. For the remainder of the afternoon, we expect generally partly cloudy skies with afternoon temps maxing out in the next 1-2 hours. This evening should be rather tranquil with temperatures falling into the upper 70s. For tonight, high pressure will nose into the region from the Great Lakes states. Drier air aloft will continue to push in while a shallow layer of dry air may push into southern Indiana. Model proximity soundings show a temperature inversion developing overnight which will likely trap moisture underneath. The combination of clear skies, light winds, and the inversion with moisture underneath will likely result in fog developing. At this time, it appears that patchy dense fog may be more common across southern Indiana and portions of northern KY. However, more widespread dense fog may develop across mainly southern KY. For now, plan on issuing a Special Weather Statement to heighten awareness of the fog potential overnight. Should conditions deteriorate more than forecast tonight, a Dense Fog Advisory may be required later tonight. Lows will range from 65 to 70 in most areas, a few of our typical cool spots may be slightly cooler. Dry conditions are expected across the region for Saturday. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. We may see a risk of an isolated shower or storm in the late afternoon across our southwest sections, though it appears convection may be more focused out in the I-24 corridor of west KY. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 ...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday and into Monday... ...Much Cooler Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week... Mid-level ridge axis will break down across the region late this weekend as a strong short wave trough moves through the northern US and southern Canada. This will drive a cold front through the region Sunday and into Monday. This should result in a round of showers and thunderstorms from late Sunday through the day on Monday. Combination of moderate instability along with good convergence along the boundary could result in some strong to possibly severe storms during that period. Main threats look to be damaging winds at this time. We plan on highlighting this threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. After the front goes through the region, we`ll see drier and cooler weather return to the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will be cooler with readings topping out in the mid-upper 80s, but Wednesday will be the coolest day with highs only reaching the upper 70s to around 80 in most areas. Dewpoints will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s which will be more refreshing than the low-mid 70s dewpoints that we`ve seen of late. The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part of the week. The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out west and a baggy trough axis in the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a notorious northwest flow. During this time, we`ll have to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge and then riding down into the Ohio Valley. While there has been a constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday, the models really struggle with these type flow regimes. Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 656 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Low level moisture remains across the region this evening despite the dry air aloft moving in. Skies are expected to become mostly clear overnight with winds becoming light and variable to calm. The main concern for the overnight hours will be the potential for fog. Visibilities are expected to drop to MVFR at SDF and LEX and into the IFR range at BWG. Any fog that develops will dissipate shortly after sunrise tomorrow. The remainder of tomorrow will feature light winds and mostly clear skies. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........MJ Long Term.........MJ Aviation..........EER
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 657 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)... Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 ...Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight and Early Saturday Morning... Frontal boundary has not made much progress to the south today. This morning`s low clouds have mixed out, but have been replaced by a rather dense Cu field. Temperatures have warmed into the 80s, with the cool spots in the NE/E sections and the warmer spots residing in our southwestern areas. For the remainder of the afternoon, we expect generally partly cloudy skies with afternoon temps maxing out in the next 1-2 hours. This evening should be rather tranquil with temperatures falling into the upper 70s. For tonight, high pressure will nose into the region from the Great Lakes states. Drier air aloft will continue to push in while a shallow layer of dry air may push into southern Indiana. Model proximity soundings show a temperature inversion developing overnight which will likely trap moisture underneath. The combination of clear skies, light winds, and the inversion with moisture underneath will likely result in fog developing. At this time, it appears that patchy dense fog may be more common across southern Indiana and portions of northern KY. However, more widespread dense fog may develop across mainly southern KY. For now, plan on issuing a Special Weather Statement to heighten awareness of the fog potential overnight. Should conditions deteriorate more than forecast tonight, a Dense Fog Advisory may be required later tonight. Lows will range from 65 to 70 in most areas, a few of our typical cool spots may be slightly cooler. Dry conditions are expected across the region for Saturday. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. We may see a risk of an isolated shower or storm in the late afternoon across our southwest sections, though it appears convection may be more focused out in the I-24 corridor of west KY. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 ...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday and into Monday... ...Much Cooler Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week... Mid-level ridge axis will break down across the region late this weekend as a strong short wave trough moves through the northern US and southern Canada. This will drive a cold front through the region Sunday and into Monday. This should result in a round of showers and thunderstorms from late Sunday through the day on Monday. Combination of moderate instability along with good convergence along the boundary could result in some strong to possibly severe storms during that period. Main threats look to be damaging winds at this time. We plan on highlighting this threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. After the front goes through the region, we`ll see drier and cooler weather return to the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will be cooler with readings topping out in the mid-upper 80s, but Wednesday will be the coolest day with highs only reaching the upper 70s to around 80 in most areas. Dewpoints will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s which will be more refreshing than the low-mid 70s dewpoints that we`ve seen of late. The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part of the week. The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out west and a baggy trough axis in the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a notorious northwest flow. During this time, we`ll have to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge and then riding down into the Ohio Valley. While there has been a constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday, the models really struggle with these type flow regimes. Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 656 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Low level moisture remains across the region this evening despite the dry air aloft moving in. Skies are expected to become mostly clear overnight with winds becoming light and variable to calm. The main concern for the overnight hours will be the potential for fog. Visibilities are expected to drop to MVFR at SDF and LEX and into the IFR range at BWG. Any fog that develops will dissipate shortly after sunrise tomorrow. The remainder of tomorrow will feature light winds and mostly clear skies. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........MJ Long Term.........MJ Aviation..........EER
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Surface analysis shows front still remains across portions of northern and central KY this afternoon. Therefore we do remain in a fairly warm and moist airmass this afternoon. Guidance shows a reasonable inversion remaining in place and this seems to be inhibiting any shower or storm development this afternoon. Also low stratus hung in across a good portion of eastern KY though the early afternoon. Did keep a isolated chance as some of the data suggested some omega in the layer as a weak wave passes through. What is left of the previously mentioned boundary is expected to progress south of the region tonight, as a surface high builds south and centers across the Mid Atlantic. The skies are expected to clear tonight as CU looses the diurnal heating. These skies will combine with low level moisture in place and inversion to lead to patchy and eventually areas of dense fog. Therefore will mention this in a HWO and hoist a SPS as well. In terms of models both the GFS/NAM soundings have this thought and therefore confidence is building. Overall upper level pattern we are expecting to see rising heights as upper level high begins pulling back to the east across. Therefore while the weak front drops south not much reprieve temp wise will be seen across the region, as the models show 591 height building northeast. While we do remain dry the temps are expected to climb into the upper 80s for Saturday. Saturday night we see clear skies and potential for valley fog, while surface high pressure skits the region. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper level ridge that has been in place over the southern CONUS for several days will finally start to break down on Sunday as a strong upper level low drags a cold front towards the region. This upper level low will track eastward along the US/Canadian border Sunday and Monday before lifting into the Eastern Canadian provinces. As this occurs, the trof will deepen and pass through the OH Valley Wednesday while nudging the ridge westward. Weak ridging will move into place on Wednesday before a quick moving shortwave enters East Kentucky Thursday evening. Confidence is low regarding this shortwave as the operational GFS and ECMWF differ in speed and placement. Decided to stay close to a general blend of model guidance in the late part of the period. At the surface, moisture and precipitation chances will increase Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the approaching cold frontal boundary. This boundary is progged to move through the region Sunday night into Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front during this time period. A few additional showers may be possible Tuesday evening as the trof axis passes by overhead. Cooler and drier air will then filter into Kentucky by Wednesday dropping dew points down into the 50s. This will feel much more comfortable than the past several days with 70 degree dew points. Dry weather will persist through Thursday morning before a quick moving low moves into East Kentucky Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Sites are beginning the TAF period in the VFR/MVFR range. While some sites do start the period MVFR chose to keep ceilings up given do not think the sites will prevail MVFR. Otherwise issue of the day will be any convection that can fire through the afternoon hours. Right now kept with previous forecast of VCTS mainly in the more eastern TAF sites. The latest WSR-88D radar data only shows a few small showers have been passing across the northern parts of eastern Kentucky. The skies are expected to clear out tonight, however the model soundings are in good agreement with low level moisture remaining in place. This moisture will be trapped under low level inversion, and this will lead to potential for dense fog overnight based on guidance and model soundings. Right now opted to go with most dense fog between 07Z and 13Z at all TAF sites. Overall winds will remain light unless perhaps you realize a isolate storm. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Surface analysis shows front still remains across portions of northern and central KY this afternoon. Therefore we do remain in a fairly warm and moist airmass this afternoon. Guidance shows a reasonable inversion remaining in place and this seems to be inhibiting any shower or storm development this afternoon. Also low stratus hung in across a good portion of eastern KY though the early afternoon. Did keep a isolated chance as some of the data suggested some omega in the layer as a weak wave passes through. What is left of the previously mentioned boundary is expected to progress south of the region tonight, as a surface high builds south and centers across the Mid Atlantic. The skies are expected to clear tonight as CU looses the diurnal heating. These skies will combine with low level moisture in place and inversion to lead to patchy and eventually areas of dense fog. Therefore will mention this in a HWO and hoist a SPS as well. In terms of models both the GFS/NAM soundings have this thought and therefore confidence is building. Overall upper level pattern we are expecting to see rising heights as upper level high begins pulling back to the east across. Therefore while the weak front drops south not much reprieve temp wise will be seen across the region, as the models show 591 height building northeast. While we do remain dry the temps are expected to climb into the upper 80s for Saturday. Saturday night we see clear skies and potential for valley fog, while surface high pressure skits the region. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper level ridge that has been in place over the southern CONUS for several days will finally start to break down on Sunday as a strong upper level low drags a cold front towards the region. This upper level low will track eastward along the US/Canadian border Sunday and Monday before lifting into the Eastern Canadian provinces. As this occurs, the trof will deepen and pass through the OH Valley Wednesday while nudging the ridge westward. Weak ridging will move into place on Wednesday before a quick moving shortwave enters East Kentucky Thursday evening. Confidence is low regarding this shortwave as the operational GFS and ECMWF differ in speed and placement. Decided to stay close to a general blend of model guidance in the late part of the period. At the surface, moisture and precipitation chances will increase Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the approaching cold frontal boundary. This boundary is progged to move through the region Sunday night into Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front during this time period. A few additional showers may be possible Tuesday evening as the trof axis passes by overhead. Cooler and drier air will then filter into Kentucky by Wednesday dropping dew points down into the 50s. This will feel much more comfortable than the past several days with 70 degree dew points. Dry weather will persist through Thursday morning before a quick moving low moves into East Kentucky Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Sites are beginning the TAF period in the VFR/MVFR range. While some sites do start the period MVFR chose to keep ceilings up given do not think the sites will prevail MVFR. Otherwise issue of the day will be any convection that can fire through the afternoon hours. Right now kept with previous forecast of VCTS mainly in the more eastern TAF sites. The latest WSR-88D radar data only shows a few small showers have been passing across the northern parts of eastern Kentucky. The skies are expected to clear out tonight, however the model soundings are in good agreement with low level moisture remaining in place. This moisture will be trapped under low level inversion, and this will lead to potential for dense fog overnight based on guidance and model soundings. Right now opted to go with most dense fog between 07Z and 13Z at all TAF sites. Overall winds will remain light unless perhaps you realize a isolate storm. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 248 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 A warm front draped across southeast Missouri into northwest Tennessee will remain fairly stationary tonight. Convection over southeast Missouri should decrease in coverage into the evening hours with the loss in heating. Models show the front moving back eastward very slowly Saturday into Saturday night. This will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances from southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois and far west Kentucky on Saturday, with another lull in activity Saturday night, then showers and storms will be possible across the entire PAH forecast area on Sunday. With our region in the warm sector and an approaching cold front, convection will have a little better chance of continuing into the overnight hours Sunday. With the warm front moving across the region early in the weekend, our respite from the uncomfortable humidity levels will be short lived. Dew points will climb back into the lower 70s across most of our region on Saturday and the entire area on Sunday. With high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range, heat indices will climb back into the 100 to 105 degree range across all but east and northeast portions of the PAH fa on Saturday, and across the entire area on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, at the start of the new workweek, with a frontal boundary draped along/in the vicinity of the Ohio River Valley. It encounters a still steamy/charged environment over our FA, from the weekend ridging/upper High. The models drive the front southward across the FA as waves of energy barrel around the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. As a result, we`ll see H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs, and this morning`s resolutions are no different. Where they do differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. But even this feature is markedly less so modeled today, by the GFS, vs yesterday same time. So we like the direction our collaborative agreement goes, minimizing or altogether eliminating Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night/Wed, with the broad blend of features consistently featuring cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame. With growing confidence, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, by Days 6-7, the models do insist upon diving a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A stray shower or storm is possible KCGI late in the TAF period, but chance is too low to include. Winds from the west/northwest at 5 to 10 kts will become light/calm overnight, then pick up from the south around 5 kts after 13z. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...RST
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 248 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 A warm front draped across southeast Missouri into northwest Tennessee will remain fairly stationary tonight. Convection over southeast Missouri should decrease in coverage into the evening hours with the loss in heating. Models show the front moving back eastward very slowly Saturday into Saturday night. This will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances from southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois and far west Kentucky on Saturday, with another lull in activity Saturday night, then showers and storms will be possible across the entire PAH forecast area on Sunday. With our region in the warm sector and an approaching cold front, convection will have a little better chance of continuing into the overnight hours Sunday. With the warm front moving across the region early in the weekend, our respite from the uncomfortable humidity levels will be short lived. Dew points will climb back into the lower 70s across most of our region on Saturday and the entire area on Sunday. With high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range, heat indices will climb back into the 100 to 105 degree range across all but east and northeast portions of the PAH fa on Saturday, and across the entire area on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, at the start of the new workweek, with a frontal boundary draped along/in the vicinity of the Ohio River Valley. It encounters a still steamy/charged environment over our FA, from the weekend ridging/upper High. The models drive the front southward across the FA as waves of energy barrel around the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. As a result, we`ll see H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs, and this morning`s resolutions are no different. Where they do differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. But even this feature is markedly less so modeled today, by the GFS, vs yesterday same time. So we like the direction our collaborative agreement goes, minimizing or altogether eliminating Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night/Wed, with the broad blend of features consistently featuring cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame. With growing confidence, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, by Days 6-7, the models do insist upon diving a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A stray shower or storm is possible KCGI late in the TAF period, but chance is too low to include. Winds from the west/northwest at 5 to 10 kts will become light/calm overnight, then pick up from the south around 5 kts after 13z. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...RST
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 328 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)... Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 ...Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight and Early Saturday Morning... Frontal boundary has not made much progress to the south today. This morning`s low clouds have mixed out, but have been replaced by a rather dense Cu field. Temperatures have warmed into the 80s, with the cool spots in the NE/E sections and the warmer spots residing in our southwestern areas. For the remainder of the afternoon, we expect generally partly cloudy skies with afternoon temps maxing out in the next 1-2 hours. This evening should be rather tranquil with temperatures falling into the upper 70s. For tonight, high pressure will nose into the region from the Great Lakes states. Drier air aloft will continue to push in while a shallow layer of dry air may push into southern Indiana. Model proximity soundings show a temperature inversion developing overnight which will likely trap moisture underneath. The combination of clear skies, light winds, and the inversion with moisture underneath will likely result in fog developing. At this time, it appears that patchy dense fog may be more common across southern Indiana and portions of northern KY. However, more widespread dense fog may develop across mainly southern KY. For now, plan on issuing a Special Weather Statement to heighten awareness of the fog potential overnight. Should conditions deteriorate more than forecast tonight, a Dense Fog Advisory may be required later tonight. Lows will range from 65 to 70 in most areas, a few of our typical cool spots may be slightly cooler. Dry conditions are expected across the region for Saturday. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. We may see a risk of an isolated shower or storm in the late afternoon across our southwest sections, though it appears convection may be more focused out in the I-24 corridor of west KY. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 ...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday and into Monday... ...Much Cooler Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week... Mid-level ridge axis will break down across the region late this weekend as a strong short wave trough moves through the northern US and southern Canada. This will drive a cold front through the region Sunday and into Monday. This should result in a round of showers and thunderstorms from late Sunday through the day on Monday. Combination of moderate instability along with good convergence along the boundary could result in some strong to possibly severe storms during that period. Main threats look to be damaging winds at this time. We plan on highlighting this threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. After the front goes through the region, we`ll see drier and cooler weather return to the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will be cooler with readings topping out in the mid-upper 80s, but Wednesday will be the coolest day with highs only reaching the upper 70s to around 80 in most areas. Dewpoints will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s which will be more refreshing than the low-mid 70s dewpoints that we`ve seen of late. The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part of the week. The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out west and a baggy trough axis in the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a notorious northwest flow. During this time, we`ll have to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge and then riding down into the Ohio Valley. While there has been a constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday, the models really struggle with these type flow regimes. Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Issued at 113 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Surface front has stalled and washed out across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Wind fields are light but moisture in the low- levels is quite high still despite some drying aloft. A broken to scattered MVFR deck around the area will gradually lift/scatter this afternoon. Expect VFR conditions this evening. The residual moisture and light/variable winds overnight will likely result in fog and/or stratus across the area, though probably not as widespread or thick as this morning. It will be slow to burn off again Saturday morning, but eventually VFR conditions will prevail through the day with light winds. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........MJ Long Term.........MJ Aviation..........ZT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1212 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 We are still dealing with some low stratus this morning, but we have seen some breaks on the vis sat. Do think we will see some gradual clearing through the afternoon. The 06z NAM forecast soundings seemed to have a decent handle on this thought. Then this afternoon a weak upper level wave is expected to ride through the area and could be enough to set off some storms mainly in the southeast. This seems to match up well with ensembles of CAM data. No major changes needed this update. Did freshen grids with latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper level ridge that has been in place over the southern CONUS for several days will finally start to break down on Sunday as a strong upper level low drags a cold front towards the region. This upper level low will track eastward along the US/Canadian border Sunday and Monday before lifting into the Eastern Canadian provinces. As this occurs, the trof will deepen and pass through the OH Valley Wednesday while nudging the ridge westward. Weak ridging will move into place on Wednesday before a quick moving shortwave enters East Kentucky Thursday evening. Confidence is low regarding this shortwave as the operational GFS and ECMWF differ in speed and placement. Decided to stay close to a general blend of model guidance in the late part of the period. At the surface, moisture and precipitation chances will increase Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the approaching cold frontal boundary. This boundary is progged to move through the region Sunday night into Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front during this time period. A few additional showers may be possible Tuesday evening as the trof axis passes by overhead. Cooler and drier air will then filter into Kentucky by Wednesday dropping dew points down into the 50s. This will feel much more comfortable than the past several days with 70 degree dew points. Dry weather will persist through Thursday morning before a quick moving low moves into East Kentucky Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Sites are beginning the TAF period in the VFR/MVFR range. While some sites do start the period MVFR chose to keep ceilings up given do not think the sites will prevail MVFR. Otherwise issue of the day will be any convection that can fire through the afternoon hours. Right now kept with previous forecast of VCTS mainly in the more eastern TAF sites. The latest WSR-88D radar data only shows a few small showers have been passing across the northern parts of eastern Kentucky. The skies are expected to clear out tonight, however the model soundings are in good agreement with low level moisture remaining in place. This moisture will be trapped under low level inversion, and this will lead to potential for dense fog overnight based on guidance and model soundings. Right now opted to go with most dense fog between 07Z and 13Z at all TAF sites. Overall winds will remain light unless perhaps you realize a isolate storm. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1212 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 We are still dealing with some low stratus this morning, but we have seen some breaks on the vis sat. Do think we will see some gradual clearing through the afternoon. The 06z NAM forecast soundings seemed to have a decent handle on this thought. Then this afternoon a weak upper level wave is expected to ride through the area and could be enough to set off some storms mainly in the southeast. This seems to match up well with ensembles of CAM data. No major changes needed this update. Did freshen grids with latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Sites are beginning the TAF period in the VFR/MVFR range. While some sites do start the period MVFR chose to keep ceilings up given do not think the sites will prevail MVFR. Otherwise issue of the day will be any convection that can fire through the afternoon hours. Right now kept with previous forecast of VCTS mainly in the more eastern TAF sites. The latest WSR-88D radar data only shows a few small showers have been passing across the northern parts of eastern Kentucky. The skies are expected to clear out tonight, however the model soundings are in good agreement with low level moisture remaining in place. This moisture will be trapped under low level inversion, and this will lead to potential for dense fog overnight based on guidance and model soundings. Right now opted to go with most dense fog between 07Z and 13Z at all TAF sites. Overall winds will remain light unless perhaps you realize a isolate storm. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1212 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 We are still dealing with some low stratus this morning, but we have seen some breaks on the vis sat. Do think we will see some gradual clearing through the afternoon. The 06z NAM forecast soundings seemed to have a decent handle on this thought. Then this afternoon a weak upper level wave is expected to ride through the area and could be enough to set off some storms mainly in the southeast. This seems to match up well with ensembles of CAM data. No major changes needed this update. Did freshen grids with latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Sites are beginning the TAF period in the VFR/MVFR range. While some sites do start the period MVFR chose to keep ceilings up given do not think the sites will prevail MVFR. Otherwise issue of the day will be any convection that can fire through the afternoon hours. Right now kept with previous forecast of VCTS mainly in the more eastern TAF sites. The latest WSR-88D radar data only shows a few small showers have been passing across the northern parts of eastern Kentucky. The skies are expected to clear out tonight, however the model soundings are in good agreement with low level moisture remaining in place. This moisture will be trapped under low level inversion, and this will lead to potential for dense fog overnight based on guidance and model soundings. Right now opted to go with most dense fog between 07Z and 13Z at all TAF sites. Overall winds will remain light unless perhaps you realize a isolate storm. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 121 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1119 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Frontal boundary still resides north of the region this morning as evidenced by surface wind observations and dewpoints. Drier air aloft is coming in and creating a bit of an inversion aloft which is trapping moisture in the low-levels. This combined with a bit of heating has led to more statocu developing across the region. For the next few hours, we`ll continue to see an influx of drier air eventually build into the region. However, until sufficient drier air and mixing take over, we`re going to see mostly cloudy skies with filtered sunshine. The clouds have kept temperatures down in the 70s this morning. Once we mix out some of these clouds temperatures will warm into the 80s this afternoon. On a side note, the building ridge that will move in later tonight and on Saturday will lead to some air stagnation across the region. This will result in higher concentrations of pollution across the metro area. The Louisville Air Pollution Control District has issued an Air Quality Alert for Saturday due to ozone. .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Issued at 113 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Surface front has stalled and washed out across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Wind fields are light but moisture in the low- levels is quite high still despite some drying aloft. A broken to scattered MVFR deck around the area will gradually lift/scatter this afternoon. Expect VFR conditions this evening. The residual moisture and light/variable winds overnight will likely result in fog and/or stratus across the area, though probably not as widespread or thick as this morning. It will be slow to burn off again Saturday morning, but eventually VFR conditions will prevail through the day with light winds. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........MJ Short Term.....13 Long Term......13 Aviation.......ZT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1205 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Bumped high temps down by several degrees over ozark foothills region due to persistent showers and cloud cover. May still be too optimistic in regards to recovery late this afternoon. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder should decrease in coverage and intensity thru mid to late afternoon in SEMO. Rest of the afternoon forecast is still on track with cooler and less humid conditions in place. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Today through tonight. VFR. Ocnl high clouds. Light winds. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...SP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1205 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Bumped high temps down by several degrees over ozark foothills region due to persistent showers and cloud cover. May still be too optimistic in regards to recovery late this afternoon. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder should decrease in coverage and intensity thru mid to late afternoon in SEMO. Rest of the afternoon forecast is still on track with cooler and less humid conditions in place. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Today through tonight. VFR. Ocnl high clouds. Light winds. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...SP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 1212 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1212 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 We are still dealing with some low stratus this morning, but we have seen some breaks on the vis sat. Do think we will see some gradual clearing through the afternoon. The 06z NAM forecast soundings seemed to have a decent handle on this thought. Then this afternoon a weak upper level wave is expected to ride through the area and could be enough to set off some storms mainly in the southeast. This seems to match up well with ensembles of CAM data. No major changes needed this update. Did freshen grids with latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 IFR/MVFR stratus will scatter out through 15z, with isolated to scattered convection threatening during the afternoon hours, mainly along a line from KSJS to KI35. Scattered to broken cumulus in the 3-5K feet AGL range will clear out tonight. Fog will develop across the area, with dense fog a good bet at most of the TAF sites at some point between 06 and 12z. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1120 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1119 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Frontal boundary still resides north of the region this morning as evidenced by surface wind observations and dewpoints. Drier air aloft is coming in and creating a bit of an inversion aloft which is trapping moisture in the low-levels. This combined with a bit of heating has led to more statocu developing across the region. For the next few hours, we`ll continue to see an influx of drier air eventually build into the region. However, until sufficient drier air and mixing take over, we`re going to see mostly cloudy skies with filtered sunshine. The clouds have kept temperatures down in the 70s this morning. Once we mix out some of these clouds temperatures will warm into the 80s this afternoon. On a side note, the building ridge that will move in later tonight and on Saturday will lead to some air stagnation across the region. This will result in higher concentrations of pollution across the metro area. The Louisville Air Pollution Control District has issued an Air Quality Alert for Saturday due to ozone. .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Surface cold front approaching the Ohio River this morning. Along it, some low stratus and fog has developed at SDF and LEX. Worst conditions (LIFR) are currently at SDF, but things should improve quickly this morning with daytime mixing. LEX should also improve quickly as clouds mix out. Otherwise, expect winds going more to the WNW today and skies clearing as the front moves through. May see some additional fog development tonight mainly at BWG, thus have put in some high-end MVFR vsbys for early tomorrow morning. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........MJ Short Term.....13 Long Term......13 Aviation.......KJD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 IFR/MVFR stratus will scatter out through 15z, with isolated to scattered convection threatening during the afternoon hours, mainly along a line from KSJS to KI35. Scattered to broken cumulus in the 3-5K feet AGL range will clear out tonight. Fog will develop across the area, with dense fog a good bet at most of the TAF sites at some point between 06 and 12z. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 IFR/MVFR stratus will scatter out through 15z, with isolated to scattered convection threatening during the afternoon hours, mainly along a line from KSJS to KI35. Scattered to broken cumulus in the 3-5K feet AGL range will clear out tonight. Fog will develop across the area, with dense fog a good bet at most of the TAF sites at some point between 06 and 12z. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Today through tonight. VFR. Ocnl high clouds. Light winds. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Today through tonight. VFR. Ocnl high clouds. Light winds. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 648 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Surface cold front approaching the Ohio River this morning. Along it, some low stratus and fog has developed at SDF and LEX. Worst conditions (LIFR) are currently at SDF, but things should improve quickly this morning with daytime mixing. LEX should also improve quickly as clouds mix out. Otherwise, expect winds going more to the WNW today and skies clearing as the front moves through. May see some additional fog development tonight mainly at BWG, thus have put in some high-end MVFR vsbys for early tomorrow morning. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........13 Aviation..........KJD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF sites at this time, though tstm activity is expected to linger overnight in the Pennyrile region of KY just ahead of a southward-moving frontal boundary. By around sunrise, sometimes variable surface winds are expected to settle into a northerly direction and should remain below 10 kts. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will wind down across the area through 09z. Clouds will gradually thin out, allowing for some lower MVFR/IFR stratus to form between 08 and 12z. KSYM looks to see this first, given the quicker clearing, with the rest of the sites succumbing from north to south through dawn. The stratus will scatter out between 14 and 16z, with at least some isolated convection likely threatening along a line from KSJS to KI35 during the afternoon hours. An upper level ridge will then build in, providing a couple of days of dry weather. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day on Friday, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 309 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Thunderstorms continue to push south, but one last round will affect BWG over the next hour or two. After this moves through, convection should come to an end at all sites for the night. Will then need to watch for fog and/or low stratus developing, as a cold front only slowly sags through the region. Given some gradient winds in place, have favored low stratus over fog, with IFR cigs possible early this morning at LEX and SDF. Otherwise, the daylight hours will feature high pressure building in from the northwest. This will turn winds around more to the northwest through the day today and also bring mostly clear skies by late this afternoon into this evening. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........13 Aviation..........KJD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 309 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Thunderstorms continue to push south, but one last round will affect BWG over the next hour or two. After this moves through, convection should come to an end at all sites for the night. Will then need to watch for fog and/or low stratus developing, as a cold front only slowly sags through the region. Given some gradient winds in place, have favored low stratus over fog, with IFR cigs possible early this morning at LEX and SDF. Otherwise, the daylight hours will feature high pressure building in from the northwest. This will turn winds around more to the northwest through the day today and also bring mostly clear skies by late this afternoon into this evening. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........13 Aviation..........KJD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will gradually wind down across eastern Kentucky through the overnight, as instability and forcing wane. Freshened up the pops through dawn, with a gradual decline continuing. Also added in some fog, although some low stratus also looks like a good bet towards dawn. Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 60s to around 70 through the rest of the night. UPDATE Issued at 933 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 With area really worked over now, at least where the tornado watch was, have opted to let the watch go as it expires at the top of the hour anyways. The severe thunderstorm watch will remain up for now as we still have some storm working across southern Kentucky. This watch may be able to go soon as convection slips south. Meanwhile, still watching some new development back across central Kentucky and its slow movement is allow for some modest rainfall rates. This will bare watching as it slowly shifts south and east over the next several hours. UPDATE Issued at 844 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Cancelled a portion of the flash flood watch for Fleming, Bath, Rowan, and Montgomery counties as radar trends are not supportive of heavy rain over the next several hours. Will keep the watch out farther south as there has been some redevelopment back to the west across central Kentucky and will be spreading southeast into eastern Kentucky over the next 3 to 4 hours. With the initial round of heavy rain, any additional rain could quickly lead to flash flooding, especially if storms start to train over the area. UPDATE Issued at 752 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Initial line of convection has evolved into linear bowing segments and continue to pose a damaging wind threat as it shifts south towards the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. Farther north, convection along main cold front has fallen apart and become less organized. We may be able to let the watch go across the north very soon if convection does not show more signs of organization. This is of course good news as much of the area has already seen decent rainfall and any more would lead increased flooding concerns. Also, since this activity is showing more signs of picking up speed, flood concerns are decreasing a bit. We may be able to trim back some of the flood watch in a bit as well if current trends hold. For now will hold the line with watches and see how things evolve in the next hour. UPDATE Issued at 650 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Currently, the line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are continuing to track south slowly. Some lingering instability over the far southern counties seems to be enough favorable environment to sustain severe convection over the south. Will be issuing a new ZFP to highlight this. UPDATE Issued at 1142 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Current surface analysis across the area features temperatures warming into the lower 80s and a vague but present outflow boundary across central eastern Kentucky. As well, a cold front is present to the northwest and will slowly be making a south and southeast approach. Clearing skies and increased heating through the early afternoon hours will allow for rapid destabilization this afternoon as cells develop ahead of the slowly dropping southeast cold front. The remnant outflow boundary across the area will further enhance convection as storms become organized and produce possible damaging winds and heavy rainfall. As the front slides south and becomes west to east across the area this evening, training of storms becomes possible and where repeated bouts of rain has fallen before, a decent flash flood threat is valid. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch until 8pm. This may need to be extended depending on how long the activity lasts into this evening.. UPDATE Issued at 708 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Convection that was over ILN and RLX has shifted southeast, with a area of showers and thunderstorms currently impacting the northern portion of the CWA. Luckily storms have weakened significantly, so there is no severe threat at this time. However it could be putting down some decent rains, which will be something to keep in mind for any storms that develop or move over the same location later in the day. Otherwise, forecast seems to be in good shape this morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the temp, dew point, and wind forecasts were in line with ongoing conditions. Grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web, though no changes are needed to the forecast package at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 403 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 An active start to the period is expected today, thanks to a center of low pressure currently traveling eastward across Indiana and Ohio. This will continue on a southeast track through the day, pulling a cold front southward into the state between 18 and 21Z. The cold front will then remain in place across the northern half of the state through at least 6z tonight (Friday) before finally slowly shifting southward through the southern portion of the CWA through the day Friday. Along and just south of the current cold front, a stout area of convection has set up, currently encompassing much of IN, OH, and northern WV. This convection is taking a southeastward track, following the best theta-e advection gradients. Based on the current radar trends, the current convection may pass just north of the CWA through the next few hours. However, as the low continues eastward and the cold front begins to sag farther south as we begin gaining daytime sunlight and heating, expect pops to begin shifting into our area. As such, included slight chances over the next couple of hours, with scattered pops by 12Z, slowly spreading southward through about noon. Latest hi-res models all seem to agree that convection will be more scattered in nature as it moves across eastern KY. However, with decent CAPE throughout the morning/early afternoon, and stout winds in the low, mid, and upper levels, any of these storms could still produce some severe potential, mainly in the form of strong to damaging winds. Between 18 and 21Z, the cold front will begin its descent into KY. This will correspond with best peak heating and afternoon instability. CAPE values will top out between 3.5k and 4.5k j/kg between 18 and 0z, with LIs still dropping to -10 to -12. DCAPE will even max out around 1.5k j/kg by 0Z this evening. This will therefore be our best chance for seeing more widespread severe potential, with damaging winds still the main concern. Pops will increase to numerous along the frontal boundary in our northern CWA between 18 and 21Z, then slowly spread southeastward throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Despite the lingering frontal boundary, the center of low pressure will continue shifting eastward, robbing best instability from the area for the latter half of the overnight. Still a bit concerned, however, about PWAT values and heavy rainfall through the overnight. Any storms during the day could put down torrential rainfall, which may lead to further flooding concerns. In a fortunate note, however, it looks like during most of the day today, most widespread rains will mainly affect the northern CWA, which hasn`t been quite as worked over from previous day`s storms. However, any training of storms could quickly cause problems. Unfortunately, PWATS will actually increase to over 2 inches (nearly 2.5 inches at SME!) between 0 and 6z this evening according to the latest NAM12 soundings. This is slightly higher than the GFS soundings, but even this model is still reading nearly 2 inches. Will need to continue to monitor storms into the overnight for potential flooding concerns. For Friday, the cold front will continue to weaken, having little affect on the state by this point. In fact, strong NW flow will take hold across much of the CWA north of the boundary, bringing much drier air into the region, and cutting off any remaining precip concerns for the day. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today with the NW flow in place, but will still achieve the mid and upper 80s by the afternoon, though with slightly less humidity. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Upper level ridge continues to build into the region through the first part of the forecast period. The next weather maker will be a weak frontal boundary that progresses SE into the region, and this will begin increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms late weekend into the first part of next week. The storms will wain some as we move into Tuesday, but additional storms are possible by Thursday as another upper level wave approaches. Model wise the the spaghetti plot shows that the guidance remains in good agreement. The upper level high will be well established across the lower MS River Valley. Guidance remains in good agreement with the ridging breaking down by mid week. The breakdown will lead to cooler temperatures by the time we get to mid and late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will wind down across the area through 09z. Clouds will gradually thin out, allowing for some lower MVFR/IFR stratus to form between 08 and 12z. KSYM looks to see this first, given the quicker clearing, with the rest of the sites succumbing from north to south through dawn. The stratus will scatter out between 14 and 16z, with at least some isolated convection likely threatening along a line from KSJS to KI35 during the afternoon hours. An upper level ridge will then build in, providing a couple of days of dry weather. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day on Friday, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will gradually wind down across eastern Kentucky through the overnight, as instability and forcing wane. Freshened up the pops through dawn, with a gradual decline continuing. Also added in some fog, although some low stratus also looks like a good bet towards dawn. Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 60s to around 70 through the rest of the night. UPDATE Issued at 933 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 With area really worked over now, at least where the tornado watch was, have opted to let the watch go as it expires at the top of the hour anyways. The severe thunderstorm watch will remain up for now as we still have some storm working across southern Kentucky. This watch may be able to go soon as convection slips south. Meanwhile, still watching some new development back across central Kentucky and its slow movement is allow for some modest rainfall rates. This will bare watching as it slowly shifts south and east over the next several hours. UPDATE Issued at 844 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Cancelled a portion of the flash flood watch for Fleming, Bath, Rowan, and Montgomery counties as radar trends are not supportive of heavy rain over the next several hours. Will keep the watch out farther south as there has been some redevelopment back to the west across central Kentucky and will be spreading southeast into eastern Kentucky over the next 3 to 4 hours. With the initial round of heavy rain, any additional rain could quickly lead to flash flooding, especially if storms start to train over the area. UPDATE Issued at 752 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Initial line of convection has evolved into linear bowing segments and continue to pose a damaging wind threat as it shifts south towards the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. Farther north, convection along main cold front has fallen apart and become less organized. We may be able to let the watch go across the north very soon if convection does not show more signs of organization. This is of course good news as much of the area has already seen decent rainfall and any more would lead increased flooding concerns. Also, since this activity is showing more signs of picking up speed, flood concerns are decreasing a bit. We may be able to trim back some of the flood watch in a bit as well if current trends hold. For now will hold the line with watches and see how things evolve in the next hour. UPDATE Issued at 650 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Currently, the line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are continuing to track south slowly. Some lingering instability over the far southern counties seems to be enough favorable environment to sustain severe convection over the south. Will be issuing a new ZFP to highlight this. UPDATE Issued at 1142 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Current surface analysis across the area features temperatures warming into the lower 80s and a vague but present outflow boundary across central eastern Kentucky. As well, a cold front is present to the northwest and will slowly be making a south and southeast approach. Clearing skies and increased heating through the early afternoon hours will allow for rapid destabilization this afternoon as cells develop ahead of the slowly dropping southeast cold front. The remnant outflow boundary across the area will further enhance convection as storms become organized and produce possible damaging winds and heavy rainfall. As the front slides south and becomes west to east across the area this evening, training of storms becomes possible and where repeated bouts of rain has fallen before, a decent flash flood threat is valid. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch until 8pm. This may need to be extended depending on how long the activity lasts into this evening.. UPDATE Issued at 708 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Convection that was over ILN and RLX has shifted southeast, with a area of showers and thunderstorms currently impacting the northern portion of the CWA. Luckily storms have weakened significantly, so there is no severe threat at this time. However it could be putting down some decent rains, which will be something to keep in mind for any storms that develop or move over the same location later in the day. Otherwise, forecast seems to be in good shape this morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the temp, dew point, and wind forecasts were in line with ongoing conditions. Grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web, though no changes are needed to the forecast package at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 403 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 An active start to the period is expected today, thanks to a center of low pressure currently traveling eastward across Indiana and Ohio. This will continue on a southeast track through the day, pulling a cold front southward into the state between 18 and 21Z. The cold front will then remain in place across the northern half of the state through at least 6z tonight (Friday) before finally slowly shifting southward through the southern portion of the CWA through the day Friday. Along and just south of the current cold front, a stout area of convection has set up, currently encompassing much of IN, OH, and northern WV. This convection is taking a southeastward track, following the best theta-e advection gradients. Based on the current radar trends, the current convection may pass just north of the CWA through the next few hours. However, as the low continues eastward and the cold front begins to sag farther south as we begin gaining daytime sunlight and heating, expect pops to begin shifting into our area. As such, included slight chances over the next couple of hours, with scattered pops by 12Z, slowly spreading southward through about noon. Latest hi-res models all seem to agree that convection will be more scattered in nature as it moves across eastern KY. However, with decent CAPE throughout the morning/early afternoon, and stout winds in the low, mid, and upper levels, any of these storms could still produce some severe potential, mainly in the form of strong to damaging winds. Between 18 and 21Z, the cold front will begin its descent into KY. This will correspond with best peak heating and afternoon instability. CAPE values will top out between 3.5k and 4.5k j/kg between 18 and 0z, with LIs still dropping to -10 to -12. DCAPE will even max out around 1.5k j/kg by 0Z this evening. This will therefore be our best chance for seeing more widespread severe potential, with damaging winds still the main concern. Pops will increase to numerous along the frontal boundary in our northern CWA between 18 and 21Z, then slowly spread southeastward throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Despite the lingering frontal boundary, the center of low pressure will continue shifting eastward, robbing best instability from the area for the latter half of the overnight. Still a bit concerned, however, about PWAT values and heavy rainfall through the overnight. Any storms during the day could put down torrential rainfall, which may lead to further flooding concerns. In a fortunate note, however, it looks like during most of the day today, most widespread rains will mainly affect the northern CWA, which hasn`t been quite as worked over from previous day`s storms. However, any training of storms could quickly cause problems. Unfortunately, PWATS will actually increase to over 2 inches (nearly 2.5 inches at SME!) between 0 and 6z this evening according to the latest NAM12 soundings. This is slightly higher than the GFS soundings, but even this model is still reading nearly 2 inches. Will need to continue to monitor storms into the overnight for potential flooding concerns. For Friday, the cold front will continue to weaken, having little affect on the state by this point. In fact, strong NW flow will take hold across much of the CWA north of the boundary, bringing much drier air into the region, and cutting off any remaining precip concerns for the day. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today with the NW flow in place, but will still achieve the mid and upper 80s by the afternoon, though with slightly less humidity. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Upper level ridge continues to build into the region through the first part of the forecast period. The next weather maker will be a weak frontal boundary that progresses SE into the region, and this will begin increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms late weekend into the first part of next week. The storms will wain some as we move into Tuesday, but additional storms are possible by Thursday as another upper level wave approaches. Model wise the the spaghetti plot shows that the guidance remains in good agreement. The upper level high will be well established across the lower MS River Valley. Guidance remains in good agreement with the ridging breaking down by mid week. The breakdown will lead to cooler temperatures by the time we get to mid and late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will wind down across the area through 09z. Clouds will gradually thin out, allowing for some lower MVFR/IFR stratus to form between 08 and 12z. KSYM looks to see this first, given the quicker clearing, with the rest of the sites succumbing from north to south through dawn. The stratus will scatter out between 14 and 16z, with at least some isolated convection likely threatening along a line from KSJS to KI35 during the afternoon hours. An upper level ridge will then build in, providing a couple of days of dry weather. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day on Friday, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1245 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Updated aviation discussion only. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #290 has just been issued for southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky valid to 03Z. Storms have fired along a confluence zone, still ahead of the actual cold front, just to the east of Pike county and a few cells are trying to go into Warrick and Vanderburgh counties as of 1930Z. The storms will still be fighting a cap, and the westward extent of the development is uncertain. Given the instability available, any storms that can survive the cap could produce damaging winds and possibly some large hail. They will move to the east southeast, and should move fast enough to prevent much flash flood potential, but we will have to watch for training issues. The models continue to bring the front through the area tonight, and a small chance of thunderstorms will remain until the front has passed. They don`t push it far southwest of our Missouri counties and bring it back into western portions of our Missouri counties by midday Friday. This will result in a slight chance of storms over there and possibly into the Purchase area through the afternoon. While there will be some cooling, heat indices are still likely to reach 100 over southeast Missouri in the afternoon. Warm, moist advection in the low-levels will maintain a small chance of storms from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and west Kentucky Saturday. This activity will push northeast through the eastern portions of the region Saturday night. Severe weather is not anticipated Saturday. Much of the area will see heat indices around 100 Saturday, and some locations may touch 105. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, closing the weekend, with a broad circulation of High Pressure aloft, from the Lower Mississippi to the Tennessee Valley. The center of the H5 Anticyclone to our south is modeled from 593-595 DM, with 592 DM+ heights across the PAH FA, and the corresponding 1000-500 mb thickness field from 5770-5790 meters. We see also a warm/juicy tongue of high theta air drawn overtop the FA on lower trop swlys. The sum resultant effect looks like another oppressive heat index day, with pm peaks in the triple digits and knocking on the door of headline criteria for much of the FA. With that much heat/humidity in the lower trop, diurnally driven Pops cannot be ruled out, if they can bust thru the warm mid level cap. A feature that will aid that cap busting process soon comes into play, as a frontal boundary evolves and is driven southward toward the FA from the barrelling waves of energy rounding the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. Monday-Monday night, we see this energy spill southward, and H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs. Where they differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. We`d like to minimize or altogether eliminate Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night, with the broad blend of features showing slightly cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame, with collab adjustments if nec. Thus, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, on Wed, the models do dive a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast Wed-Thu. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF sites at this time, though tstm activity is expected to linger overnight in the Pennyrile region of KY just ahead of a southward-moving frontal boundary. By around sunrise, sometimes variable surface winds are expected to settle into a northerly direction and should remain below 10 kts. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1245 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Updated aviation discussion only. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #290 has just been issued for southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky valid to 03Z. Storms have fired along a confluence zone, still ahead of the actual cold front, just to the east of Pike county and a few cells are trying to go into Warrick and Vanderburgh counties as of 1930Z. The storms will still be fighting a cap, and the westward extent of the development is uncertain. Given the instability available, any storms that can survive the cap could produce damaging winds and possibly some large hail. They will move to the east southeast, and should move fast enough to prevent much flash flood potential, but we will have to watch for training issues. The models continue to bring the front through the area tonight, and a small chance of thunderstorms will remain until the front has passed. They don`t push it far southwest of our Missouri counties and bring it back into western portions of our Missouri counties by midday Friday. This will result in a slight chance of storms over there and possibly into the Purchase area through the afternoon. While there will be some cooling, heat indices are still likely to reach 100 over southeast Missouri in the afternoon. Warm, moist advection in the low-levels will maintain a small chance of storms from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and west Kentucky Saturday. This activity will push northeast through the eastern portions of the region Saturday night. Severe weather is not anticipated Saturday. Much of the area will see heat indices around 100 Saturday, and some locations may touch 105. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, closing the weekend, with a broad circulation of High Pressure aloft, from the Lower Mississippi to the Tennessee Valley. The center of the H5 Anticyclone to our south is modeled from 593-595 DM, with 592 DM+ heights across the PAH FA, and the corresponding 1000-500 mb thickness field from 5770-5790 meters. We see also a warm/juicy tongue of high theta air drawn overtop the FA on lower trop swlys. The sum resultant effect looks like another oppressive heat index day, with pm peaks in the triple digits and knocking on the door of headline criteria for much of the FA. With that much heat/humidity in the lower trop, diurnally driven Pops cannot be ruled out, if they can bust thru the warm mid level cap. A feature that will aid that cap busting process soon comes into play, as a frontal boundary evolves and is driven southward toward the FA from the barrelling waves of energy rounding the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. Monday-Monday night, we see this energy spill southward, and H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs. Where they differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. We`d like to minimize or altogether eliminate Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night, with the broad blend of features showing slightly cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame, with collab adjustments if nec. Thus, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, on Wed, the models do dive a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast Wed-Thu. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF sites at this time, though tstm activity is expected to linger overnight in the Pennyrile region of KY just ahead of a southward-moving frontal boundary. By around sunrise, sometimes variable surface winds are expected to settle into a northerly direction and should remain below 10 kts. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 104 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1051 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Despite the multiple rounds of storms, instability persists across south central KY. This should continue to wane over the next couple of hours. Given that storms are ongoing and a few could still become strong, have extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 05Z across portions of central KY. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. Issued at 938 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Went ahead and let the Tornado Watch expire. Do not think we have any tornado threat left in the in that area, though a strong storm with pea size hail and 40 mph winds is not out of the question. Have trimmed back some of the counties in the Severe Thunderstorm Watch as the front is moving into the area. The rest of the Severe Watch remains, though the main threat for severe weather will be across south central KY. May have to extend the Watch in that area for an hour or so depending on how quickly the storms move out over the next hour. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)... Issued at 351 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 ...ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING... Early afternoon satellite imagery reveals partly to mostly sunny skies across the region. Convection along a frontal boundary has rapidly developed over the last hour or so. The atmosphere is highly unstable this afternoon with CAPE readings in the 3-4K J/Kg range and LI`s dipping down into the -8 to -10 deg C range. We still do have a slight cap, although very weak at this point, across much of north-central KY as evidenced by AMDAR soundings out of KSDF. As we continue to heat up over the next few hours, we`ll remove that cap/inversion and continued upscale growth of convection along the boundary will continue. Overall kinematic and thermodynamic profiles across the western 2/3rds of our region are suggestive of severe weather with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. High PWATs of greater than 2 inches combined with the instability will also allow these storms to load up on precip leading to the possibility of damaging downbursts. In areas along and east of I-65 and along and north of I-64, bulk shear values increase a bit as one heads north and east. Model proximity soundings in these areas show a bit more of directional shear. Thus, a threat of an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out. Coordination calls with SPC have yielded two watch boxes in our area. The first is a Tornado Watch that is in effect for our far eastern Bluegrass counties. This is an area characterized by an unstable atmosphere and higher values of speed and directional shear. Further west a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the remainder of the CWA. Primary hazards out in this area are damaging winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall. However, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out given that we do have some weaker shear in the area. Torrential rainfall will be possible with the storms as PWAT values are over 2 inches. The progressive nature of the storms look to limit the flash flood threat. However, areas that receive repeated rainfall episodes could see some localized flooding. In terms of sensible weather, line of storms across southern Indiana will continue to develop and drop southward into KY late this afternoon and evening. They will likely impact the Louisville metro area over the next 60-90 minutes and then into the Lexington metro area between 500-700 PM eastern time. We expect the storms to drop east-southeast through the evening. Should we get a cold pool to develop, then these storms will translate south and east at a faster rate. The storms should make it into southern KY by mid-late evening before weakening. Temperatures this afternoon will remain in the lower 90s and then cool into the upper 70s to the lower 80s after the storms pass. Some temperature recovery may occur after the storms, but overnight temps are expected to bottom out in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Drier and more tranquil weather are expected for Friday and Friday night. Highs Friday should warm into the upper 80s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 An upper level ridge will try and build into the region over the weekend. However, the ridge will not last all that long as a strong mid-level trough axis will swing across the northern US and knock the ridge back down to our south and southwest. This trough axis will likely amplify and carve out a deeper eastern US trough while shifting the core of the upper level ridge back to the west. In this case, the Ohio Valley will remain in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft and will have to be vigilant of perturbations that ride down through the flow aloft which could bring multiple rounds of convection to the region by mid to late week. In terms of sensible weather, mainly dry conditions are expected Saturday and Saturday night. We`ll see a chance of storms Sunday and into Monday as a cold front crosses the region. A brief break of dry weather is likely for Tuesday and Wednesday before the first of several mid-level perturbations move toward the region. We should note that these perturbations are very difficult to predict, even in short range modeling, so confidence out toward the end of the period is pretty close to climatology at this point. The extended will start off warm with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Temperatures will come down a bit for Monday and Tuesday with highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s. Lower to middle 80s will be the rule for Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s are expected for Wed/Thur mornings. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Thunderstorms continue to push south, but one last round will affect BWG over the next hour or two. After this moves through, convection should come to an end at all sites for the night. Will then need to watch for fog and/or low stratus developing, as a cold front only slowly sags through the region. Given some gradient winds in place, have favored low stratus over fog, with IFR cigs possible early this morning at LEX and SDF. Otherwise, the daylight hours will feature high pressure building in from the northwest. This will turn winds around more to the northwest through the day today and also bring mostly clear skies by late this afternoon into this evening. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........EER Short Term.....MJ Long Term......MJ Aviation.......KJD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 319 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016 .DISCUSSION...High pressure is building into the Pacific Northwest today so temperatures will be warmer and above average. There will be low chances for showers in northwest Montana mainly near the Canadian border and into Glacier National Park, otherwise, the rest of north central Idaho and western Montana will be dry with less wind than previous days. Warm temperatures of around 10 degrees above average can be expected each day this week due to high pressure planned to build over north central Idaho and western Montana. The main high pressure ridge will be just east of the region which will allow for weak impulses and shortwave to pass through north central Idaho and western Montana. The passing disturbances will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday will be the first day with shower chances and a few of these may pass during the morning. Each afternoon this week appears to have a chance for showers and thunderstorms with most of these to be near the Continental Divide. The warm pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms will extend into the weekend. && .AVIATION...Skies have cleared region wide, so parts of northwest Montana that recently had rain do have a chance for patchy fog. A weak shortwave will pass through northwest Montana that will mainly produce some cloud cover but a few showers are also possible. The rest of the region will have warm temperatures and dry conditions with mostly clear skies. Winds today are forecast to be lighter than the previous few days. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 317 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday...A westerly flow aloft will persist across the region through early this week as an upper level ridge over the SW US amplifies slightly while mainly weak shortwave energy moving in from the Pacific across the NW US keeps the ridge somewhat suppressed. Weak shortwave embedded within the westerly flow, noted in satellite imagery early this morning over SE BC, will track east along the US/Canadian border today. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible mainly along and north of Hwy 2 this afternoon. Behind this, the ridge temporarily amplifies into the Northern Rockies Monday before the next round of weak shortwave energy, originating over the Eastern Pacific, moves into the region Tuesday. Instability and moisture increase Tuesday afternoon for widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, however flow aloft and shear is relatively weak for limited organization to convection. A gradual warming trend is expected through the next several days with afternoon temperatures today near seasonal averages, warming to above average Monday and Tuesday. Hoenisch Tuesday night through Sunday...The models are in general agreement in the medium range period, keeping an upper level ridge over the western US through at least the end of the upcoming work week. Of note, though, there has been a noticeable trend over the last few days keeping the ridge from getting as amplified as the models suggested a few days ago. And, by next weekend, there is a bit more consistency regarding a possible breakdown of the ridge as the upper level trough sitting off the west coast of North America may begin to edge further inland. Temp-wise, this suggests that temperatures this week may not get quite as warm as originally forecast. It should be noted, however, that the models have struggled some with forecasting the evolution of the trough off the Pac NW coast late in the week which makes the forecast for the July 4th weekend a lower confidence one at this time. Beneath the ridge, it appears that a weak surface convergence zone may setup in the lee of the Rockies from Canada to the Southern Plains. Within this area, increasing instability and moisture combined with the weak convergence should be enough to generate at least isolated showers and storms most days. At this point, it is too early to pinpoint which days may have a better coverage of storms, so kept pops at slight chance / chance each afternoon / evening for now. Very much a summer-time pattern. By the end of the week, a Pacific front may sweep through the area, but this will depend on whether or not the trough off the Pac NW coast can move inland or not. If the trough doesn`t move inland, then isolated afternoon storms will likely be the norm going into the holiday weekend. Despite the better agreement regarding the trough, the lack of consistency still leads to a lower confidence forecast then and opted to keep pops on the lower end over the weekend for now. Regarding the strength of the storms from Wednesday on, there isn`t any significant severe weather signal on any day. But, a few strong storms will be possible just about any day, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area where the best instability/shear may reside. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0535Z. Clouds will continue to decrease tonight for most TAF sites with generally light winds expected. On Sunday afternoon, a weak cold front will drop south out of Canada, reaching KGTF/KLWT by around 00z/MON. A NW/N wind shift can be expected as the front passes through. In addition, a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area may have just enough lift with it to produce isolated SHRA/TSRA across far northern sections of central Montana Sunday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KHVR. If confidence increases regarding the shower activity, then prevailing and/or TEMPO groups for TSRA may be needed in later forecasts. Any SHRA/TSRA that develops could have erratic/gusty winds with it and perhaps a brief period of reduced VIS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 06z/MON. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 75 47 82 53 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 71 46 78 50 / 20 10 10 10 HLN 80 52 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 81 46 86 50 / 0 0 10 10 WEY 73 38 76 43 / 0 0 10 10 DLN 79 46 85 51 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 73 48 80 53 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 73 48 80 53 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 305 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Tue... Synoptic Setup: A large area of hot high pressure sets over the Desert Southwest and lower Intermountain West. A weak ridge rides north out of this airmass through Idaho and Alberta. Mostly zonal flow runs from the Pacific Northwest through the High plains of Montana. A weak remnant trough sets over southern Saskatchewan. Farther west a large synoptic trough sets over the Gulf of Alaska. Today: The remnant trough to the north will drop into the Dakotas and generate enough instability as it clips northeast montana to bring about some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Tonight through Tuesday: Hot high pressure across the Intermountain west will move northward slightly forcing flow over Montana to become more northwest than zonal and increase the curvature to a ridge which should put a limit on showers activitythrough Mid week. Temperatures are also anticipated to creep up during this time as warmer, dryer air aloft moves in. GAH .LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun... Blocking pattern with upper low settling over eastern Canada will dominate through this week. To the west, another low will drop into the Gulf of Alaska. Between the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest resulting in temperatures just a little above normal. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce intermittent thunderstorms through next weekend. Ebert && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected with the TAF cycle. A few showers and breezy northwest winds are possible in the afternoon. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 300 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon... The upper low that brought the windy conditions to the forecast area on Saturday has moved well east of the state and is situated just north of the Great Lakes. A zonal flow aloft and dry conditions will prevail across our area today. Winds will be much lighter than was the case on Saturday. However, some gusty northwest winds can be expected from about Rosebud County eastward this afternoon. A weak front will move across the forecast area this evening allowing winds to become light from the northeast. Mostly sunny skies will continue Monday. However, a weak disturbance over Wyoming will bring a slight thunderstorm chance to the Beartooth/Absaroka and Big Horn Mountains during the afternoon and evening. Winds will become southeasterly by Monday evening and this combined with a low-level jet that develops across western Nebraska and South Dakota will advect some higher dewpoints into Southeast Montana Monday night. In addition, a narrow theta-e axis will move into eastern Wyoming Monday night. Although, at this time, there isn`t much of a trigger mechanism to generate thunderstorms, we have added a slight thunderstorm chance across Powder River and Carter counties for Monday night. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer with lower 80s for most locations. Rising heights Monday will allow temperatures to warm further in the lower to middle 80s. Hooley .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... We did not make any significant changes for the extended period. Looking over ensemble spaghetti charts it appears the overall pattern does not offer up any extreme parameters. The mean ridge axis will likely remain just west of our CWA (western Montana) at day four...with the possibility of it becoming an omega block by day six or seven. This could mean somewhat warmer temperatures for our area late next week along with some influx of moisture from the south. This does not account for the periodic short wave ridge crasher. Progs still support the idea of a decent short wave late Tuesday...and perhaps again Thursday. Due to the influx of southern moisture through the Rockies late in the week (monsoonal in nature), the short waves will have a better opportunity to provide precipitation. The caveat is timing short waves and southern impulses. Thus, we are trending POP`s with a broadbrush as we head toward next weekend with low confidence in 6-12hr time frame skill. That said, CIPS analogs do not indicate much chance of any widespread severe weather for our CWA. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds will prevail again today, but not as strong as yesterday. Look for winds to turn more northerly in the afternoon at sites located on the eastern plains. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 084 055/085 058/090 059/089 058/086 057/088 059/090 0/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 084 045/085 050/090 049/088 047/085 047/086 048/088 0/U 01/U 13/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 086 053/088 056/092 056/089 055/087 055/088 055/092 0/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T MLS 084 055/084 059/089 060/088 059/084 057/085 059/087 0/U 00/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 4BQ 087 055/087 059/092 059/089 058/086 056/086 058/090 0/U 00/U 23/T 42/T 22/T 22/T 22/T BHK 081 051/081 053/086 056/084 055/082 053/081 054/084 0/U 00/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T SHR 085 048/085 051/090 053/088 052/085 052/087 053/090 0/U 01/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Aviation Section Updated... .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Clear skies over much of the forecast area along with light winds will allow for cool overnight temps. Have lowered most temps a bit and freshened POPs. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0535Z. Clouds will continue to decrease tonight for most TAF sites with generally light winds expected. On Sunday afternoon, a weak cold front will drop south out of Canada, reaching KGTF/KLWT by around 00z/MON. A NW/N wind shift can be expected as the front passes through. In addition, a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area may have just enough lift with it to produce isolated SHRA/TSRA across far northern sections of central Montana Sunday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KHVR. If confidence increases regarding the shower activity, then prevailing and/or TEMPO groups for TSRA may be needed in later forecasts. Any SHRA/TSRA that develops could have erratic/gusty winds with it and perhaps a brief period of reduced VIS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 06z/MON. Martin && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 44 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 46 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 47 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 39 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 34 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 40 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 10 20 10 10 LWT 42 76 49 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Aviation Section Updated... .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Clear skies over much of the forecast area along with light winds will allow for cool overnight temps. Have lowered most temps a bit and freshened POPs. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0535Z. Clouds will continue to decrease tonight for most TAF sites with generally light winds expected. On Sunday afternoon, a weak cold front will drop south out of Canada, reaching KGTF/KLWT by around 00z/MON. A NW/N wind shift can be expected as the front passes through. In addition, a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area may have just enough lift with it to produce isolated SHRA/TSRA across far northern sections of central Montana Sunday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KHVR. If confidence increases regarding the shower activity, then prevailing and/or TEMPO groups for TSRA may be needed in later forecasts. Any SHRA/TSRA that develops could have erratic/gusty winds with it and perhaps a brief period of reduced VIS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 06z/MON. Martin && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 44 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 46 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 47 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 39 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 34 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 40 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 10 20 10 10 LWT 42 76 49 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 900 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Clear skies over much of the forecast area along with light winds will allow for cool overnight temps. Have lowered most temps a bit and freshened POPs. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 2320Z. High pressure is building over Central and Southwest Montana and the airmass will generally remain dry through Sunday. Gusty west winds will diminish this evening and most locations will see light winds with only afternoon gustiness through Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 44 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 46 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 47 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 39 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 34 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 40 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 10 20 10 10 LWT 42 76 49 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 826 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon... Evening update: Changes to the forecast were focused on showers across the area quickly dying off. While an area of greater instability exists farther upstream in the northwest flow over the Canadian Provinces, these showers are tied to the afternoon instability and should die out before they arrive into the CWA overnight. GAH Previous short term discussion: The energetic upper low that brought severe thunderstorms Friday and strong northwest winds with scattered showers today to Northeast Montana moves farther east into Manitoba this evening. This movement will begin to diminish its affects tonight on the local area. Wind will diminish enough to expire the wind advisory over Fort peck Lake this evening. Showers should taper off too. Sunday: While ridging begins to build up over the West, the back side of the departing trough will rotate wrap around scattered rain showers over the mainly northern areas. Northwest winds will continue on the brisk side, continuing the cooler than normal feel. Except for areas near the Idaho and Wyoming borders, the hot desert air will be held at bay mainly south of Montana. Monday: The western ridge continues to build up and amplify, nudging the ridge axis over the Divide. Temperatures will return to near normal and winds will become light, for a return to summery conditions. Templer .LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat... Lowered pops slightly early in the period mainly for late Tuesday as much of the shower/tstorm activity looks to be well to our southeast. Rest of forecast looked good. TFJ Previous Long Term Discussion: Upper low currently moving across Montana will reach eastern Canada by the beginning of the extended period on Monday night. To the west, another low has settled over the Gulf of Alaska. With little movement expected of the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies over the next week. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce thunderstorms on most days next week. Ebert && .AVIATION... Showers and gusty winds have dissipated across northeast Montana. Expect vfr conditions mostly clear skies tonight. Sunday will feature NW winds increasing to 15-20 kts by the afternoon with some cumulus clouds. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 805 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... No update to short term forecast this evening. Gusty winds are tapering off...and will continue to do so through the evening. AAG && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, rh values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate rh recoveries can be expected tonight. A building ridge over the Northern Rockies will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds continue...but are tapering off...and will continue to do so this evening. Lighter winds can be expected overnight and Sunday. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 805 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... No update to short term forecast this evening. Gusty winds are tapering off...and will continue to do so through the evening. AAG && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, rh values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate rh recoveries can be expected tonight. A building ridge over the Northern Rockies will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds continue...but are tapering off...and will continue to do so this evening. Lighter winds can be expected overnight and Sunday. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 805 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... No update to short term forecast this evening. Gusty winds are tapering off...and will continue to do so through the evening. AAG && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, rh values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate rh recoveries can be expected tonight. A building ridge over the Northern Rockies will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds continue...but are tapering off...and will continue to do so this evening. Lighter winds can be expected overnight and Sunday. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 805 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... No update to short term forecast this evening. Gusty winds are tapering off...and will continue to do so through the evening. AAG && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, rh values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate rh recoveries can be expected tonight. A building ridge over the Northern Rockies will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds continue...but are tapering off...and will continue to do so this evening. Lighter winds can be expected overnight and Sunday. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 520 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 2320Z. High pressure is building over Central and Southwest Montana and the airmass will generally remain dry through Sunday. Gusty west winds will diminish this evening and most locations will see light winds with only afternoon gustiness through Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 47 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 48 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 48 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 42 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 35 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 44 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 46 76 49 80 / 10 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, afternoon RH values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate RH recoveries can be expected tonight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. Dry weather and warming temperatures can be expected on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. West to northwest winds of 20 to 30 kts with gusts up to 45 kts have been found north of KSHR today. Winds will gradually decrease from west to east this evening and overnight. Lighter winds can be expected for Sunday. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 258 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1800Z. Upper level low/trough will continue to slide east across the US/Canadian border this afternoon. Low to mid level clouds will continue to be a result...along with with a few isolated showers...across north central terminals. VFR conditions mostly expected this afternoon...however...brief MVFR cloud levels may be found. Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies will be found this afternoon...with breezy conditions. Gusts up to 30 Knots are possible. Current vis satellite indicating mountain wave activity likely occurring...perhaps brings some areas of turbulence. After 00z Sunday...winds and clouds will begin to diminish...and VFR conditions are expected with some few to sct mid to high level clouds by Sunday morning. Anglin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 47 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 48 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 48 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 42 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 35 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 44 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 46 76 49 80 / 10 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 240 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016 .DISCUSSION...The weather across much of the Northern Rockies has improved from what we saw yesterday, as the low pressure that brought rain and wind to the region continues to push further eastward. Locations across northwestern Montana should continue to see mostly cloud conditions this afternoon, that will keep afternoon highs noticeable cooler compared to areas around Missoula and points south through central Idaho. Afternoon winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and evening, though not expected to be as strong as yesterday. Glacier National Park may see off and on showers later today, that will keep temperatures below normal for this time of the year. Another weak shortwave of energy will introduce more moisture tomorrow, with Glacier National Park seeing another round of afternoon showers. Elsewhere across the region, temperatures will rise a few degrees from today. A ridge of high pressure will begin to amplify over the Northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday, that will allow for afternoon highs to rise to above normal for this time of year. Some valleys of western Montana could come close to breaking 90F degrees, with north-central Idaho climbing into the mid to upper 90`s. Enough moisture and instability will remain over the region, allowing for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though what does develop may stay more anchored to the terrain. For later next week into the holiday weekend, a typical summer weather pattern appears to continue. Afternoon temperatures should remain generally above normal in the upper 80s to mid 90s with a threat of late day thunder. /ss && .AVIATION...Mostly cloudy, to overcast skies, is expected to remain over Northwestern Montana and the region around KGPI through the rest of the day. Light rain showers will also redevelop over Glacier National Park, that will obscure mountain ridges at times along the Continental Divide. Elsewhere across western Montana and central Idaho, partly cloudy skies and afternoon gusts up to 20kts can be expected, including KBTM and KMSO. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 240 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016 .DISCUSSION...The weather across much of the Northern Rockies has improved from what we saw yesterday, as the low pressure that brought rain and wind to the region continues to push further eastward. Locations across northwestern Montana should continue to see mostly cloud conditions this afternoon, that will keep afternoon highs noticeable cooler compared to areas around Missoula and points south through central Idaho. Afternoon winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and evening, though not expected to be as strong as yesterday. Glacier National Park may see off and on showers later today, that will keep temperatures below normal for this time of the year. Another weak shortwave of energy will introduce more moisture tomorrow, with Glacier National Park seeing another round of afternoon showers. Elsewhere across the region, temperatures will rise a few degrees from today. A ridge of high pressure will begin to amplify over the Northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday, that will allow for afternoon highs to rise to above normal for this time of year. Some valleys of western Montana could come close to breaking 90F degrees, with north-central Idaho climbing into the mid to upper 90`s. Enough moisture and instability will remain over the region, allowing for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though what does develop may stay more anchored to the terrain. For later next week into the holiday weekend, a typical summer weather pattern appears to continue. Afternoon temperatures should remain generally above normal in the upper 80s to mid 90s with a threat of late day thunder. /ss && .AVIATION...Mostly cloudy, to overcast skies, is expected to remain over Northwestern Montana and the region around KGPI through the rest of the day. Light rain showers will also redevelop over Glacier National Park, that will obscure mountain ridges at times along the Continental Divide. Elsewhere across western Montana and central Idaho, partly cloudy skies and afternoon gusts up to 20kts can be expected, including KBTM and KMSO. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 221 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon... The energetic upper low that brought severe thunderstorms Friday and strong northwest winds with scattered showers today to Northeast Montana moves farther east into Manitoba this evening. This movement will begin to diminish its affects tonight on the local area. Wind will diminish enough to expire the wind advisory over Fort peck Lake this evening. Showers should taper off too. Sunday: While ridging begins to build up over the West, the back side of the departing trough will rotate wraparound scattered rain showers over the mainly northern areas. Northwest winds will continue on the brisk side, continuing the cooler than normal feel. Except for areas near the Idaho and Wyoming borders, the hot desert air will be held at bay mainly south of Montana. Monday: The western ridge continues to build up and amplify, nudging the ridge axis over the Divide. Temperatures will return to near normal and winds will become light, for a return to summery conditions. Templer .LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat... Lowered pops slightly early in the period mainly for late Tuesday as much of the shower/tstorm activity looks to be well to our southeast. Rest of forecast looked good. TFJ Previous Discussion... Upper low currently moving across Montana will reach eastern Canada by the beginning of the extended period on Monday night. To the west, another low has settled over the Gulf of Alaska. With little movement expected of the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies over the next week. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce thunderstorms on most days next week. Ebert && .AVIATION... An upper low is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms that are staying just northeast of the TAF sites this afternoon will dissipate by sunset. Gusty nw winds and clouds will also dissipate this evening. Sunday will feature NW winds increasing to 15-20 kts by the afternoon with some cumulus clouds. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1145 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .UPDATE DISCUSSION... Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this morning. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon...mainly across far north and eastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...strong downsloping winds will bring partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions today. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to linger through this afternoon...then begin a diminishing trend after 6 PM this evening and through tonight. Warmer and less breezy conditions are still expected for Sunday...with only an isolated thunderstorm possible across far northern portions. Anglin .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1800Z. Upper level low/trough will continue to slide east across the US/Canadian border this afternoon. Low to mid level clouds will continue to be a result...along with with a few isolated showers...across north central terminals. VFR conditions mostly expected this afternoon...however...brief MVFR cloud levels may be found. Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies will be found this afternoon...with breezy conditions. Gusts up to 30 Knots are possible. Current vis satellite indicating mountain wave activity likely occurring...perhaps brings some areas of turbulence. After 00z Sunday...winds and clouds will begin to diminish...and VFR conditions are expected with some few to sct mid to high level clouds by Sunday morning. Anglin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1145 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .UPDATE DISCUSSION... Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this morning. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon...mainly across far north and eastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...strong downsloping winds will bring partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions today. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to linger through this afternoon...then begin a diminishing trend after 6 PM this evening and through tonight. Warmer and less breezy conditions are still expected for Sunday...with only an isolated thunderstorm possible across far northern portions. Anglin .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1800Z. Upper level low/trough will continue to slide east across the US/Canadian border this afternoon. Low to mid level clouds will continue to be a result...along with with a few isolated showers...across north central terminals. VFR conditions mostly expected this afternoon...however...brief MVFR cloud levels may be found. Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies will be found this afternoon...with breezy conditions. Gusts up to 30 Knots are possible. Current vis satellite indicating mountain wave activity likely occurring...perhaps brings some areas of turbulence. After 00z Sunday...winds and clouds will begin to diminish...and VFR conditions are expected with some few to sct mid to high level clouds by Sunday morning. Anglin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1003 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE DISCUSSION... Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this morning. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon...mainly across far north and eastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...strong downsloping winds will bring partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions today. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to linger through this afternoon...then begin a diminishing trend after 6 PM this evening and through tonight. Warmer and less breezy conditions are still expected for Sunday...with only an isolated thunderstorm possible across far northern portions. .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1200Z. Upper level low/trough moving east along the US/Canadian border today will maintain a NW flow aloft across MT. Showers will primarily affect N-central MT terminals this morning with a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm affecting the KHVR terminal this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with some brief/localized MVFR conditions possible near showers this morning. Mtn top obscuration is also expected across N-central MT Mtns this morning with cloud-bases near 7000 ft MSL. Gusty west winds will begin to diminish this afternoon and further subside tonight as high pressure and drier conditions build in from the West. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 941 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Upper low over northern Montana is slowly shifting off to the east this morning, with a surface low over the eastern Dakotas. This has caused the pressure gradient to tighten across the area. As a result, west to northwest winds have increased across western and central areas this morning, and winds will continue to increase across eastern areas through the day. Generally, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph can be expected, with gusts to around 45 mph possible, especially north and east of Billings this afternoon. While temperatures will be much cooler today with highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees, afternoon relative humidity values will continue to be low, roughly in the middle teens to upper 20s. Have updated the fire weather forecast to include a headline mentioning the low rh continuing. Also adjusted winds and sky cover to current trends. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track and the previous forecast discussion and an updated aviation discussion are below. STP && .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun... A quiet weekend is in store across the forecast outside of some gusty winds today. The upper low that brought some thunderstorm activity across the area Saturday evening is slowly shifting east across the northeast portions of the state and into North Dakota and southern Canada. This low combined with a surface low over the dakotas will result in a tight north/south pressure gradient across the forecast area today, as well as some wrap around clouds. Overall, a partly to mostly sunny day can be expected along with dry conditions. However, gusty west to northwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts around 40 mph will be likely by this afternoon especially for areas north and east of Billings. High temperatures today will be much cooler than the past couple of days with readings in the 70s to around 80 degrees which is at or slightly below normal for this time of year. As for Sunday, skies will be mostly sunny. Although it will be breezy at times, winds will not be nearly as gusty as today. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer with most areas in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Hooley .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... Ridge of high pressure over the Rockies will keep our region generally dry with above normal temperatures for much of the extended period. Proggs indicate periodic short waves rounding the ridge will give us a chance of convection. Best chance of widespread convection points to Tuesday afternoon and evening...and again late Thursday. EC and GFS then diverge on position of ridge axis for next weekend. So confidence below average for and will go with climo POP`s for that time frame. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area today. Winds will continue to increase from west to east this morning with west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 40 kts expected north of KSHR today. Winds will begin to decrease across western areas this afternoon, with winds decreasing across the entire area this evening and overnight. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 080 052/084 055/087 058/090 057/087 058/088 057/088 0/N 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T LVM 075 041/083 046/085 049/089 048/085 047/087 048/087 0/N 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T HDN 081 050/085 053/088 055/090 054/087 054/088 055/089 0/N 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T MLS 075 055/083 055/084 059/089 059/084 058/087 058/085 0/N 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 4BQ 080 053/086 055/088 059/093 058/087 057/089 058/089 0/N 00/U 01/U 24/T 43/T 12/T 22/T BHK 074 052/081 051/082 054/085 055/082 054/083 054/083 0/N 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T SHR 077 045/083 048/087 052/090 053/085 051/087 053/088 0/U 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 915 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Mon... Upper low is clearly evident in the satellite and radar imagery this morning, and is spinning east along the international border. Bands of rain wrap around the core. In Saskatchewan, on the northern side of the low, thunderstorms are frequent. On the south side, rain is spreading east across Phillips and Valley Counties. Cool winds from the west are brisk and gusty and not at all summerlike. Highs today are expected to run 5F to 10F below normal. Winds may increase in the afternoon to around 25g40kt. Main grid edits were to spread pops over a wider area and adjust wind higher and temperatures lower. The edits were based on observations and none were large. Templer Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: As of this morning a large closed low has moved across the international boarder and northern High Plains. This has repressed the hot high pressure back to over the Desert Southwest and Lower Intermountain West and left an area of cool zonal flow over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies in its wake. To the northwest a weak ridge sets over Alberta with a synoptic trough over the Gulf of Alaska. Today through Sunday night: Wrap around precipitation is anticipated to move around the back side of the exiting low and clip the northern most zones with rain showers while bringing cooler temperatures to the whole CWA. Rain will end overnight with cool temperatures expected to remain in place through Sunday night. Monday: with the trough having moved off east the hot high pressure to the Southwest will begin to build again over the Intermountain west and into Montana. this will turn zonal flow to the northwest and bring surface temperatures back into the 80s. GAH .LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat... Upper low currently moving across Montana will reach eastern Canada by the beginning of the extended period on Monday night. To the west, another low has settled over the Gulf of Alaska. With little movement expected of the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies over the next week. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce thunderstorms on most days next week. Ebert && .AVIATION... An upper low is bringing showers to the area this morning, expect brief mvfr conditions under the heaviest showers. Expect these conditions to stay just north of the taf sites for most of the afternoon. Winds: Strong west/northwest with gusts to 40 kts in places this afternoon. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 515 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1200Z. Upper level low/trough moving east along the US/Canadian border today will maintain a NW flow aloft across MT. Showers will primarily affect N-central MT terminals this morning with a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm affecting the KHVR terminal this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with some brief/localized MVFR conditions possible near showers this morning. Mtn top obscuration is also expected across N-central MT Mtns this morning with cloud-bases near 7000 ft MSL. Gusty west winds will begin to diminish this afternoon and further subside tonight as high pressure and drier conditions build in from the West. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 515 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1200Z. Upper level low/trough moving east along the US/Canadian border today will maintain a NW flow aloft across MT. Showers will primarily affect N-central MT terminals this morning with a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm affecting the KHVR terminal this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with some brief/localized MVFR conditions possible near showers this morning. Mtn top obscuration is also expected across N-central MT Mtns this morning with cloud-bases near 7000 ft MSL. Gusty west winds will begin to diminish this afternoon and further subside tonight as high pressure and drier conditions build in from the West. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 342 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun... A quiet weekend is in store across the forecast area outside of some gusty winds today. The upper low that brought some thunderstorm activity across the area Saturday evening is slowly shifting east across the northeast portions of the state and into North Dakota and southern Canada. This low combined with a surface low over the dakotas will result in a tight north/south pressure gradient across the forecast area today, as well as some wrap around clouds. Overall, a partly to mostly sunny day can be expected along with dry conditions. However, gusty west to northwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts around 40 mph will be likely by this afternoon especially for areas north and east of Billings. High temperatures today will be much cooler than the past couple of days with readings in the 70s to around 80 degrees which is at or slightly below normal for this time of year. As for Sunday, skies will be mostly sunny. Although it will be breezy at times, winds will not be nearly as gusty as today. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer with most areas in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Hooley .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... Ridge of high pressure over the Rockies will keep our region generally dry with above normal temperatures for much of the extended period. Proggs indicate periodic short waves rounding the ridge will give us a chance of convection. Best chance of widespread convection points to Tuesday afternoon and evening...and again late Thursday. EC and GFS then diverge on position of ridge axis for next weekend. So confidence below average for and will go with climo POP`s for that time frame. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across TAF sites today. We do anticipate brisk NW surface winds with gusts to 25-35 kts will spread across the region between 12-17z this morning. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 080 052/084 055/087 058/090 057/087 058/088 057/088 0/N 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T LVM 075 041/083 046/085 049/089 048/085 047/087 048/087 0/N 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T HDN 081 050/085 053/088 055/090 054/087 054/088 055/089 0/N 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T MLS 075 055/083 055/084 059/089 059/084 058/087 058/085 0/N 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 4BQ 080 053/086 055/088 059/093 058/087 057/089 058/089 0/N 00/U 01/U 24/T 43/T 12/T 22/T BHK 074 052/081 051/082 054/085 055/082 054/083 054/083 0/N 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T SHR 077 045/083 048/087 052/090 053/085 051/087 053/088 0/U 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 320 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0549Z. A compact upper level low now moving along the Montana/Canada border will shift east overnight, then exit the state by 00z/SUN. A few SHRA lingering east of KLWT will continue to move away from the area over the next few hours. A second round of showers, which has already begun to develop near KCTB, will slowly progress east through Saturday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KGTF/KHVR/KLWT. The light nature of the showers should keep VIS at VFR, although a heavier shower with MVFR or lower VIS cannot be ruled out, especially vicinity KHVR. In addition, CIGS may drop down near or just below MVFR at KHVR as the SHRA move through. The atmosphere may become unstable enough for a few TSRA to develop across eastern sections of central MT on Saturday, but confidence is too low to include TSRA at any TAF site for now. Best chance would be vicinity KHVR. A tightening pressure gradient at the SFC combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to gusty winds at times at all TAF sites, especially early Saturday morning through late Saturday afternoon. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016 .DISCUSSION...Moisture continues to wrap into northwest Montana associated with the exiting low pressure system, so rain and high elevation snow remains this morning. Forecast guidance agree that there will be a decreasing trend in precipitation today with most of it ending by noon. High pressure will begin to move into the region, so temperatures will be warmer today, though breezy winds remain in the forecast. A weak a short wave will pass along the Montana/Canada border on Sunday, so a few showers will be possible in Glacier National Park. Otherwise, the rest of the region will have above normal temperatures under high pressure. The trend from Sunday-onward will be much similar: continued above normal temperatures with mostly sunny skies under persistent high pressure. Temperatures should warm into the upper 80s in valleys Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday...if not longer. While conditions are expected to remain mostly dry across north central Idaho and western Montana during this stretch, there will still be a slight chance for thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. We`ll keep an eye on whether storm development will become an increasing threat in the days to come...but in the meantime, plan for warm temps and mostly sunny, very summer-like conditions next week. && .AVIATION...Lowered cloud cover, rain, high elevation snow, and obscured terrain remain in northwest Montana this morning due to wrap around moisture from the exiting low. Obscured terrain extends into west central Montana and north central Idaho, but high pressure will begin to move in and help decrease cloud cover this morning. Northwest Montana will be the last location to see clearing skies. Westerly winds will again develop this afternoon generally in the 15-25 kt range. Skies will mostly clear region wide during this evening. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning ABOVE 6000 FEET for the West Glacier Region. ID...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 313 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Mon... Synoptic Setup: As of this morning a large closed low has moved across the international boarder and northern High Plains. This has repressed the hot high pressure back to over the Desert Southwest and Lower Intermountain West and left an area of cool zonal flow over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies in its wake. To the northwest a weak ridge sets over Alberta with a synoptic trough over the Gulf of Alaska. Today through Sunday night: Wrap around precipitation is anticipated to move around the back side of the exiting low and clip the northern most zones with rain showers while bringing cooler temperatures to the whole CWA. Rain will end overnight with cool temperatures expected to remain in place through Sunday night. Monday: with the trough having moved off east the hot high pressure to the Southwest will begin to build again over the Intermountain west and into Montana. this will turn zonal flow to the northwest and bring surface temperatures back into the 80s. GAH .LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat... Upper low currently moving across Montana will reach eastern Canada by the beginning of the extended period on Monday night. To the west another low has settled over the Gulf of Alaska. With little movement expected of the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies over the next week. Hot air in the southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce thunderstorms on most days next week. Ebert && .AVIATION... An upper low lifting from Montana into southern Manitoba today will bring strong west to northwest winds to the region today. While mainly VFR conditions are expected, scattered showers could briefly reduce flight conditions this afternoon. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips... Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 1154 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... The threat for severe weather has ended across Custer and Fallon counties. As a result, we have cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch for these areas. In addition, humidities have risen above critical levels with most areas currently above 40 percent across southeast Montana. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning for fire zones 131, 133, AND 274 has been cancelled. Hooley && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun... Water vapor imagery early this afternoon showed an upper low centered over northern Idaho slowly moving east. The upper low will continue to move into northern Montana this evening, dragging an associated cold front across the area. The aforementioned cold front was already beginning to push into the far west as of this writing, with a line of showers and thunderstorms over northern Park County and Wheatland County. Clear skies and mixing winds had allowed central and eastern areas to warm into the 80s and 90s, while 70s were found across the west. The cold front will sweep across the area late this afternoon and evening, eventually pushing east into the Dakotas by late evening/overnight. Winds will turn out of the west northwest just behind the front with winds gusting up to as high as 40 to 50 mph. Winds will decrease some overnight, but increase out of the northwest again on Saturday. While the best instability looks to remain north and east of the area this afternoon and evening, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected ahead of and along the cold front. Thermodynamics look marginal this afternoon and evening, however decent shear should allow for an isolated severe storm or two develop. The main threat with any severe storm would be strong wind gusts. Convection will gradually shift north and east through the evening and overnight as the upper low slides further east. STP For Saturday, the strong upper low will shift eastward into northwest North Dakota by afternoon. The strongest forcing will drive into North Dakota, but enough vorticity advection wrapping around the low to keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms going through the day. The bigger story will be the wind. 850mb winds of 35kts push across the area and this will provide a unseasonably windy day for late June. Expect winds of 15-30mph with gusts to 40mph. Temperatures will be cooler too with highs held in the upper 70s to lower 80s. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... A flat ridge will build Sunday and Monday. This will allow for warming temperatures. The chance of convection will be very limited with precipitable water amounts at a half inch or less. Easterly winds will return for Monday and allow for low level moisture to increase. Shortwave influx will provide some ascent for increasing instability for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of convection will be Tuesday afternoon and evening. A fairly strong shortwave will crash over the top of the ridge for strengthening ascent. MUcapes increase with low level flow turning to the southeast with values reaching around 2000j/kg over the east. Could have some strong storms east of Billings during that time frame. The ridge builds back in place Wednesday through Friday with shortwaves trying to undercut it and provide forcing for convection. Will be a battle between building heights and weak forcing with shortwave activity. Will keep pops low. Temperatures will be warm with the ridge building, but not hot as the ridge axis looks to set up over western Montana providing northwest flow aloft for most of the forecast area. TWH && .AVIATION... Strong NW surface winds with gusts to 40 kt will gradually diminish from W to E across the area overnight. Thunderstorms over Custer and Fallon Counties will create MVFR/IFR conditions in those areas and will be accompanied by potential wind gusts to 50 kt and hail through 06Z. Otherwise VFR will prevail overnight through Saturday. Winds will increase from the W with gusts to 40 kt across the area on Saturday. Arthur && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051/080 052/085 055/088 057/087 057/085 058/088 059/090 20/N 00/U 02/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 23/T LVM 046/075 043/083 046/085 048/086 048/085 049/088 051/089 30/N 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 23/T HDN 049/081 050/085 053/089 056/088 055/086 056/089 057/092 20/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 42/T 22/T 22/T MLS 054/078 055/083 056/085 060/087 060/084 059/087 061/090 21/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 43/T 21/U 12/T 4BQ 052/080 053/086 055/087 059/089 058/084 058/088 060/091 20/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 43/T 22/T 22/T BHK 053/074 052/081 052/082 055/083 056/081 056/084 057/086 20/N 00/N 02/T 24/T 44/T 21/U 12/T SHR 048/078 047/084 051/087 054/088 053/084 053/087 054/090 20/U 00/U 02/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 1154 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... The threat for severe weather has ended across Custer and Fallon counties. As a result, we have cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch for these areas. In addition, humidities have risen above critical levels with most areas currently above 40 percent across southeast Montana. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning for fire zones 131, 133, AND 274 has been cancelled. Hooley && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun... Water vapor imagery early this afternoon showed an upper low centered over northern Idaho slowly moving east. The upper low will continue to move into northern Montana this evening, dragging an associated cold front across the area. The aforementioned cold front was already beginning to push into the far west as of this writing, with a line of showers and thunderstorms over northern Park County and Wheatland County. Clear skies and mixing winds had allowed central and eastern areas to warm into the 80s and 90s, while 70s were found across the west. The cold front will sweep across the area late this afternoon and evening, eventually pushing east into the Dakotas by late evening/overnight. Winds will turn out of the west northwest just behind the front with winds gusting up to as high as 40 to 50 mph. Winds will decrease some overnight, but increase out of the northwest again on Saturday. While the best instability looks to remain north and east of the area this afternoon and evening, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected ahead of and along the cold front. Thermodynamics look marginal this afternoon and evening, however decent shear should allow for an isolated severe storm or two develop. The main threat with any severe storm would be strong wind gusts. Convection will gradually shift north and east through the evening and overnight as the upper low slides further east. STP For Saturday, the strong upper low will shift eastward into northwest North Dakota by afternoon. The strongest forcing will drive into North Dakota, but enough vorticity advection wrapping around the low to keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms going through the day. The bigger story will be the wind. 850mb winds of 35kts push across the area and this will provide a unseasonably windy day for late June. Expect winds of 15-30mph with gusts to 40mph. Temperatures will be cooler too with highs held in the upper 70s to lower 80s. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... A flat ridge will build Sunday and Monday. This will allow for warming temperatures. The chance of convection will be very limited with precipitable water amounts at a half inch or less. Easterly winds will return for Monday and allow for low level moisture to increase. Shortwave influx will provide some ascent for increasing instability for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of convection will be Tuesday afternoon and evening. A fairly strong shortwave will crash over the top of the ridge for strengthening ascent. MUcapes increase with low level flow turning to the southeast with values reaching around 2000j/kg over the east. Could have some strong storms east of Billings during that time frame. The ridge builds back in place Wednesday through Friday with shortwaves trying to undercut it and provide forcing for convection. Will be a battle between building heights and weak forcing with shortwave activity. Will keep pops low. Temperatures will be warm with the ridge building, but not hot as the ridge axis looks to set up over western Montana providing northwest flow aloft for most of the forecast area. TWH && .AVIATION... Strong NW surface winds with gusts to 40 kt will gradually diminish from W to E across the area overnight. Thunderstorms over Custer and Fallon Counties will create MVFR/IFR conditions in those areas and will be accompanied by potential wind gusts to 50 kt and hail through 06Z. Otherwise VFR will prevail overnight through Saturday. Winds will increase from the W with gusts to 40 kt across the area on Saturday. Arthur && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051/080 052/085 055/088 057/087 057/085 058/088 059/090 20/N 00/U 02/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 23/T LVM 046/075 043/083 046/085 048/086 048/085 049/088 051/089 30/N 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 23/T HDN 049/081 050/085 053/089 056/088 055/086 056/089 057/092 20/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 42/T 22/T 22/T MLS 054/078 055/083 056/085 060/087 060/084 059/087 061/090 21/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 43/T 21/U 12/T 4BQ 052/080 053/086 055/087 059/089 058/084 058/088 060/091 20/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 43/T 22/T 22/T BHK 053/074 052/081 052/082 055/083 056/081 056/084 057/086 20/N 00/N 02/T 24/T 44/T 21/U 12/T SHR 048/078 047/084 051/087 054/088 053/084 053/087 054/090 20/U 00/U 02/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1149 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Aviation Section Updated... .DISCUSSION... Tonight...The cold front is well east of the zones and brisk, west winds have spread through the western zones and into the east. The airmass has dried behind the front and have updated to freshen POPs, WX, and QPF. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0549Z. A compact upper level low now moving along the Montana/Canada border will shift east overnight, then exit the state by 00z/SUN. A few SHRA lingering east of KLWT will continue to move away from the area over the next few hours. A second round of showers, which has already begun to develop near KCTB, will slowly progress east through Saturday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KGTF/KHVR/KLWT. The light nature of the showers should keep VIS at VFR, although a heavier shower with MVFR or lower VIS cannot be ruled out, especially vicinity KHVR. In addition, CIGS may drop down near or just below MVFR at KHVR as the SHRA move through. The atmosphere may become unstable enough for a few TSRA to develop across eastern sections of central MT on Saturday, but confidence is too low to include TSRA at any TAF site for now. Best chance would be vicinity KHVR. A tightening pressure gradient at the SFC combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to gusty winds at times at all TAF sites, especially early Saturday morning through late Saturday afternoon. Martin && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Sunday...Upper trof will continue its eastward trek across northern Montana overnight. Moist south to southwest diffluent flow aloft, and a cold front, have contributed to the development of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Though shear values are high, CAPE values are not very impressive and is one reason storms are not reaching severe criteria. Also, storm motion to the northeast is very fast. Heavy rain and small hail are the main threats from these afternoon storms. The upper trof will be over northeast Montana by early Saturday and the wrap around circulation will bring scattered morning showers to the Hi-Line and to the eastern portion of the county warning area. Precipitation will end Saturday night as upper ridging builds over western Montana. Short wave energy within the northwest flow aloft will bring isolated showers to the Hi-Line again on Sunday afternoon. As the upper trof pushes east tonight, west winds will increase and become strong and gusty by early Saturday morning. Gusts to 50 mph are possible, mainly between midnight and daybreak and will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the northern plains. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages through the weekend. Sunday night through Friday...Models are in generally good agreement in the medium range period keeping an upper level ridge in place across the western US, extending all the way north into western Canada. Given the expected strength of the ridge, the upper level trough over the eastern Pacific is unlikely to make much headway into the Pac NW through next week. Locally, this should translate into a warm and somewhat drier weather pattern next week. The main differences in the models next week is the timing, strength, and amount of moisture with several weak shortwaves forecast to move through the ridge and across parts of Montana. Despite the weak nature of each s/w, they should provide just enough lift for at least isolated to widely scattered storms. At this point, confidence in storms developing is highest late Monday into Tuesday, especially across central Montana, and for this reason, opted to go with slightly higher pops compared to previous forecasts. Forecast soundings across central Montana Tuesday afternoon show modest instability/shear suggesting a few strong to severe storms will be possible then. Strong storms cannot be ruled out later in the week as well, but model differences regarding timing, strength, and location of each s/w leads to lower confidence regarding the strength of storms beyond Tuesday. The ridge building in next week looks to reach its peak in strength mid to late week across the Pac NW. So, after a brief cool down this weekend, temperatures should quickly rebound back above to well above normal later next week. At lower elevations, this means highs likely warming well into the 80s to near 90 degrees once again. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 74 46 77 / 30 20 0 0 CTB 49 70 46 73 / 70 10 10 20 HLN 50 76 49 81 / 20 10 0 0 BZN 42 76 43 81 / 20 0 0 0 WEY 34 65 36 70 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 39 74 42 80 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 49 73 50 76 / 30 60 10 20 LWT 45 73 47 76 / 30 20 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1149 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Aviation Section Updated... .DISCUSSION... Tonight...The cold front is well east of the zones and brisk, west winds have spread through the western zones and into the east. The airmass has dried behind the front and have updated to freshen POPs, WX, and QPF. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0549Z. A compact upper level low now moving along the Montana/Canada border will shift east overnight, then exit the state by 00z/SUN. A few SHRA lingering east of KLWT will continue to move away from the area over the next few hours. A second round of showers, which has already begun to develop near KCTB, will slowly progress east through Saturday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KGTF/KHVR/KLWT. The light nature of the showers should keep VIS at VFR, although a heavier shower with MVFR or lower VIS cannot be ruled out, especially vicinity KHVR. In addition, CIGS may drop down near or just below MVFR at KHVR as the SHRA move through. The atmosphere may become unstable enough for a few TSRA to develop across eastern sections of central MT on Saturday, but confidence is too low to include TSRA at any TAF site for now. Best chance would be vicinity KHVR. A tightening pressure gradient at the SFC combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to gusty winds at times at all TAF sites, especially early Saturday morning through late Saturday afternoon. Martin && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Sunday...Upper trof will continue its eastward trek across northern Montana overnight. Moist south to southwest diffluent flow aloft, and a cold front, have contributed to the development of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Though shear values are high, CAPE values are not very impressive and is one reason storms are not reaching severe criteria. Also, storm motion to the northeast is very fast. Heavy rain and small hail are the main threats from these afternoon storms. The upper trof will be over northeast Montana by early Saturday and the wrap around circulation will bring scattered morning showers to the Hi-Line and to the eastern portion of the county warning area. Precipitation will end Saturday night as upper ridging builds over western Montana. Short wave energy within the northwest flow aloft will bring isolated showers to the Hi-Line again on Sunday afternoon. As the upper trof pushes east tonight, west winds will increase and become strong and gusty by early Saturday morning. Gusts to 50 mph are possible, mainly between midnight and daybreak and will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the northern plains. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages through the weekend. Sunday night through Friday...Models are in generally good agreement in the medium range period keeping an upper level ridge in place across the western US, extending all the way north into western Canada. Given the expected strength of the ridge, the upper level trough over the eastern Pacific is unlikely to make much headway into the Pac NW through next week. Locally, this should translate into a warm and somewhat drier weather pattern next week. The main differences in the models next week is the timing, strength, and amount of moisture with several weak shortwaves forecast to move through the ridge and across parts of Montana. Despite the weak nature of each s/w, they should provide just enough lift for at least isolated to widely scattered storms. At this point, confidence in storms developing is highest late Monday into Tuesday, especially across central Montana, and for this reason, opted to go with slightly higher pops compared to previous forecasts. Forecast soundings across central Montana Tuesday afternoon show modest instability/shear suggesting a few strong to severe storms will be possible then. Strong storms cannot be ruled out later in the week as well, but model differences regarding timing, strength, and location of each s/w leads to lower confidence regarding the strength of storms beyond Tuesday. The ridge building in next week looks to reach its peak in strength mid to late week across the Pac NW. So, after a brief cool down this weekend, temperatures should quickly rebound back above to well above normal later next week. At lower elevations, this means highs likely warming well into the 80s to near 90 degrees once again. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 74 46 77 / 30 20 0 0 CTB 49 70 46 73 / 70 10 10 20 HLN 50 76 49 81 / 20 10 0 0 BZN 42 76 43 81 / 20 0 0 0 WEY 34 65 36 70 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 39 74 42 80 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 49 73 50 76 / 30 60 10 20 LWT 45 73 47 76 / 30 20 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 944 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sun... Update: Severe thunderstorms have cleared northeast Montana, and pushed into North Dakota. Therefore updated to end the watch. Also tweaked pops and winds based off of the latest observations. Should be a cool but breezy night across the area. Gilchrist The initial longwave pattern across CONUS this evening consists of storm system/upper trough rotating and pushing across the Divide, and an upper ridge moving east across the Central Plains. The trough/low center will move across Northeast Montana on Saturday and into Quebec Province on Sunday. So the short-term will see active weather, beginning with thunderstorms tonight, strong winds on Saturday, and showers on Sunday. The trough will bring cooler than normal temperatures for the weekend. Tonight: At 00Z a moderately strong cold front begins to plow through Northeast Montana. It will meet up in the forecast area with a moist and unstable airmass. Thunderstorms and rain showers will likely intensify, becoming severe. Strong winds aloft suggest the potential for damaging winds and large hail. SPC has placed most of the CWA in its Convective Outlook for a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms. Diminishing storms and rain showers may not totally exit the area until around sunrise. Saturday: The closed upper low/storm center will move through the local region, but mainly keeping showers to the north in Canada and near or north of the Hi-Line. The main issue will be the wind strength. Mid-morning westerly winds may reach 25g40kt. Afternoon northwesterly winds may reach 30g50kt. Will go ahead and issue an NPW for Fort Peck Lake from 15Z to 03Z. Saturday night through Sunday: Showers wrapping around behind the storms will create a chance for rain showers, mainly north of the Missouri River. Templer .LONG TERM...Sun night through Fri... not too many changes were made today. subtle disturbances occasionally will move through the upper ridge. upper flow will be weaker so severe thunderstorm chances should be lower. TFJ previous discussion... Synoptic Setup: Long range begins with a large trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern US Plains. A second large trough resides over the northeast Pacific centered around or just south of the Gulf of Alaska. A large airmass of hot high pressure resides over the Desert Southwest and runs as far north as southern Idaho. A slightly cooler ridge juts out of the high pressure through western Montana and through Alberta. Sunday night through Monday: Northeast Montana lies on the stable side of a developing ridge to the west. conditions will warm but remain mostly dry. Monday night through Wednesday: A shortwave will move around the edges of the hot high pressure and through eastern Montana. Tuesday and Tuesday night look to be the prime impact times with showers being scattered. Wednesday onward: Hot air from down south will fill in the ridge into southern Alberta and then slowly move it over Montana. This will increase temperatures and lower chances for showers and thunderstorms slightly until the ridge axis hits. The only other chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during night time when the K-boundary from the desert air passes over the region. GAH && .AVIATION... SYNOPSIS: Upper low system moving in from the Pacific NW will bring unsettled conditions through Saturday. SEVERE WX: Evening severe thunderstorms still look on tap with damaging winds being the main threat. Gusts over 60 kts are possible with some storms. Making sure AIRCRAFT are tied down or in sheltered locations is recommended. WINDS: Winds will turn clockwise to the east ahead of the thunderstorms then punch in from the northwest for a couple hours in the wake of the storms. Expect them to increase saturday with gusts to 40 kts during the afternoon. They will diminish Saturday evening. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1000 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .UPDATE DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery showing moisture and wave of energy in southern Alberta currently. This disturbance is expected to push into northern MT perhaps as early as late morning...but more likely this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are still possible with this feature...mainly across the northern counties of MT. Cape values of around 500 J/KG this afternoon will be a bit on the low side to support stronger storms...and the best shear also looks to be south of this disturbance. Cannot rule out an isolated stronger storm...however...for the most part garden variety thunderstorms are expected. The remainder of the forecast area will see mostly sunny skies...warmer temperatures...and lighter winds today. Thunderstorms end quickly tonight once the sunsets. Warming trend with only a few mountain thunderstorms are still expected for Monday. Anglin .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday...A westerly flow aloft will persist across the region through early this week as an upper level ridge over the SW US amplifies slightly while mainly weak shortwave energy moving in from the Pacific across the NW US keeps the ridge somewhat suppressed. Weak shortwave embedded within the westerly flow, noted in satellite imagery early this morning over SE BC, will track east along the US/Canadian border today. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible mainly along and north of Hwy 2 this afternoon. Behind this, the ridge temporarily amplifies into the Northern Rockies Monday before the next round of weak shortwave energy, originating over the Eastern Pacific, moves into the region Tuesday. Instability and moisture increase Tuesday afternoon for widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, however flow aloft and shear is relatively weak for limited organization to convection. A gradual warming trend is expected through the next several days with afternoon temperatures today near seasonal averages, warming to above average Monday and Tuesday. Hoenisch Tuesday night through Sunday...The models are in general agreement in the medium range period, keeping an upper level ridge over the western US through at least the end of the upcoming work week. Of note, though, there has been a noticeable trend over the last few days keeping the ridge from getting as amplified as the models suggested a few days ago. And, by next weekend, there is a bit more consistency regarding a possible breakdown of the ridge as the upper level trough sitting off the west coast of North America may begin to edge further inland. Temp-wise, this suggests that temperatures this week may not get quite as warm as originally forecast. It should be noted, however, that the models have struggled some with forecasting the evolution of the trough off the Pac NW coast late in the week which makes the forecast for the July 4th weekend a lower confidence one at this time. Beneath the ridge, it appears that a weak surface convergence zone may setup in the lee of the Rockies from Canada to the Southern Plains. Within this area, increasing instability and moisture combined with the weak convergence should be enough to generate at least isolated showers and storms most days. At this point, it is too early to pinpoint which days may have a better coverage of storms, so kept pops at slight chance / chance each afternoon / evening for now. Very much a summer-time pattern. By the end of the week, a Pacific front may sweep through the area, but this will depend on whether or not the trough off the Pac NW coast can move inland or not. If the trough doesn`t move inland, then isolated afternoon storms will likely be the norm going into the holiday weekend. Despite the better agreement regarding the trough, the lack of consistency still leads to a lower confidence forecast then and opted to keep pops on the lower end over the weekend for now. Regarding the strength of the storms from Wednesday on, there isn`t any significant severe weather signal on any day. But, a few strong storms will be possible just about any day, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area where the best instability/shear may reside. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1100Z. A westerly flow aloft will persist over the region through the next 24 hrs with a weak weather disturbance moving east along the US/Canadian border this afternoon. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop near the KCTB/KHVR terminals late this morning through this afternoon in association with the weak weather disturbance while clear to partly cloudy conditions prevail elsewhere. Surface winds will shift to northerly this afternoon but most locations should remain at or below 10kts. Exception will be near any thunderstorm activity that develops near the Canadian border where local wind gusts to 30kts are possible along with brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 75 47 82 53 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 71 46 78 50 / 20 10 10 10 HLN 80 52 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 81 46 86 50 / 0 0 10 10 WEY 73 38 76 43 / 0 0 10 10 DLN 79 46 85 51 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 73 48 80 53 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 73 48 80 53 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 854 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Tue... Satellite imagery this morning reveals the stacked storm system drifting into Ontario Province. The wraparound precipitation and thunderstorms extends as far back as Alberta Province. These showers will likely drift along the northwest flow into much of Northeast Montana today for scattered general thunderstorm activity, mainly this afternoon. SPC has the northern three quarters of our CWA highlighted on their Convective Outlook. This seems reasonable based on weak to moderate CAPE and LI. Main edits were to spread slight chance pops a little wider based on blended model data, and to also adjust winds based on observations. Edits were minor in scope. Templer Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: A large area of hot high pressure sets over the Desert Southwest and lower Intermountain West. A weak ridge rides north out of this airmass through Idaho and Alberta. Mostly zonal flow runs from the Pacific Northwest through the High plains of Montana. A weak remnant trough sets over southern Saskatchewan. Farther west a large synoptic trough sets over the Gulf of Alaska. Today: The remnant trough to the north will drop into the Dakotas and generate enough instability as it clips northeast montana to bring about some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Tonight through Tuesday: Hot high pressure across the Intermountain west will move northward slightly forcing flow over Montana to become more northwest than zonal and increase the curvature to a ridge which should put a limit on showers activity through Mid week. Temperatures are also anticipated to creep up during this time as warmer, dryer air aloft moves in. GAH .LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun... Blocking pattern with upper low settling over eastern Canada will dominate through this week. To the west, another low will drop into the Gulf of Alaska. Between the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest resulting in temperatures just a little above normal. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce intermittent thunderstorms through next weekend. Ebert && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected with the TAF cycle. A few showers/thunderstorm and breezy northwest winds are possible in the afternoon/early evening. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 854 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Tue... Satellite imagery this morning reveals the stacked storm system drifting into Ontario Province. The wraparound precipitation and thunderstorms extends as far back as Alberta Province. These showers will likely drift along the northwest flow into much of Northeast Montana today for scattered general thunderstorm activity, mainly this afternoon. SPC has the northern three quarters of our CWA highlighted on their Convective Outlook. This seems reasonable based on weak to moderate CAPE and LI. Main edits were to spread slight chance pops a little wider based on blended model data, and to also adjust winds based on observations. Edits were minor in scope. Templer Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: A large area of hot high pressure sets over the Desert Southwest and lower Intermountain West. A weak ridge rides north out of this airmass through Idaho and Alberta. Mostly zonal flow runs from the Pacific Northwest through the High plains of Montana. A weak remnant trough sets over southern Saskatchewan. Farther west a large synoptic trough sets over the Gulf of Alaska. Today: The remnant trough to the north will drop into the Dakotas and generate enough instability as it clips northeast montana to bring about some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Tonight through Tuesday: Hot high pressure across the Intermountain west will move northward slightly forcing flow over Montana to become more northwest than zonal and increase the curvature to a ridge which should put a limit on showers activity through Mid week. Temperatures are also anticipated to creep up during this time as warmer, dryer air aloft moves in. GAH .LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun... Blocking pattern with upper low settling over eastern Canada will dominate through this week. To the west, another low will drop into the Gulf of Alaska. Between the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest resulting in temperatures just a little above normal. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce intermittent thunderstorms through next weekend. Ebert && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected with the TAF cycle. A few showers/thunderstorm and breezy northwest winds are possible in the afternoon/early evening. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 850 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .UPDATE... The area will be under the influence of zonal flow aloft today with dry conditions and high temperatures in the upper 70s to to 80s expected. Only update to the forecast was to increase the winds across the east for the morning hours as current observations show the west to northwest winds are increasing a bit earlier than forecast. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track and the previous forecast discussion is below. STP && .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon... The upper low that brought the windy conditions to the forecast area on Saturday has moved well east of the state and is situated just north of the Great Lakes. A zonal flow aloft and dry conditions will prevail across our area today. Winds will be much lighter than was the case on Saturday. However, some gusty northwest winds can be expected from about Rosebud County eastward this afternoon. A weak front will move across the the forecast area this evening allowing winds to become light from the northeast. Mostly sunny skies will continue Monday. However, a weak disturbance over Wyoming will bring a slight thunderstorm chance to the Beartooth/Absaroka and Big Horn Mountains during the afternoon and evening. Winds will become southeasterly by Monday evening and this combined with a low-level jet that develops across western Nebraska and South Dakota will advect some higher dewpoints into Southeast Montana Monday night. In addition, a narrow theta-e axis will move into eastern Wyoming Monday night. Although, at this time, there isn`t much of a trigger mechanism to generate thunderstorms, we have added a slight thunderstorm chance across Powder River and Carter counties for Monday night. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer with lower 80s for most locations. Rising heights Monday will allow temperatures to warm further in the lower to middle 80s. Hooley .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... We did not make any significant changes for the extended period. Looking over ensemble spaghetti charts it appears the overall pattern does not offer up any extreme parameters. The mean ridge axis will likely remain just west of our CWA (western Montana) at day four...with the possibility of it becoming an omega block by day six or seven. This could mean somewhat warmer temperatures for our area late next week along with some influx of moisture from the south. This does not account for the periodic short wave ridge crasher. Progs still support the idea of a decent short wave late Tuesday...and perhaps again Thursday. Due to the influx of southern moisture through the Rockies late in the week (monsoonal in nature), the short waves will have a better opportunity to provide precipitation. The caveat is timing short waves and southern impulses. Thus, we are trending POP`s with a broadbrush as we head toward next weekend with low confidence in 6-12hr time frame skill. That said, CIPS analogs do not indicate much chance of any widespread severe weather for our CWA. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds will prevail again today, but not as strong as yesterday. Look for winds to turn more northerly in the afternoon at sites located on the eastern plains. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 084 055/085 058/090 059/089 058/086 057/088 059/090 0/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 084 045/085 050/090 049/088 047/085 047/086 048/088 0/U 01/U 13/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 086 053/088 056/092 056/089 055/087 055/088 055/092 0/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T MLS 084 055/084 059/089 060/088 059/084 057/085 059/087 0/U 00/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 4BQ 087 055/087 059/092 059/089 058/086 056/086 058/090 0/U 00/U 23/T 42/T 22/T 22/T 22/T BHK 081 051/081 053/086 056/084 055/082 053/081 054/084 0/U 00/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T SHR 085 048/085 051/090 053/088 052/085 052/087 053/090 0/U 01/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 500 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Updated Aviation Discussion .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday...A westerly flow aloft will persist across the region through early this week as an upper level ridge over the SW US amplifies slightly while mainly weak shortwave energy moving in from the Pacific across the NW US keeps the ridge somewhat suppressed. Weak shortwave embedded within the westerly flow, noted in satellite imagery early this morning over SE BC, will track east along the US/Canadian border today. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible mainly along and north of Hwy 2 this afternoon. Behind this, the ridge temporarily amplifies into the Northern Rockies Monday before the next round of weak shortwave energy, originating over the Eastern Pacific, moves into the region Tuesday. Instability and moisture increase Tuesday afternoon for widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, however flow aloft and shear is relatively weak for limited organization to convection. A gradual warming trend is expected through the next several days with afternoon temperatures today near seasonal averages, warming to above average Monday and Tuesday. Hoenisch Tuesday night through Sunday...The models are in general agreement in the medium range period, keeping an upper level ridge over the western US through at least the end of the upcoming work week. Of note, though, there has been a noticeable trend over the last few days keeping the ridge from getting as amplified as the models suggested a few days ago. And, by next weekend, there is a bit more consistency regarding a possible breakdown of the ridge as the upper level trough sitting off the west coast of North America may begin to edge further inland. Temp-wise, this suggests that temperatures this week may not get quite as warm as originally forecast. It should be noted, however, that the models have struggled some with forecasting the evolution of the trough off the Pac NW coast late in the week which makes the forecast for the July 4th weekend a lower confidence one at this time. Beneath the ridge, it appears that a weak surface convergence zone may setup in the lee of the Rockies from Canada to the Southern Plains. Within this area, increasing instability and moisture combined with the weak convergence should be enough to generate at least isolated showers and storms most days. At this point, it is too early to pinpoint which days may have a better coverage of storms, so kept pops at slight chance / chance each afternoon / evening for now. Very much a summer-time pattern. By the end of the week, a Pacific front may sweep through the area, but this will depend on whether or not the trough off the Pac NW coast can move inland or not. If the trough doesn`t move inland, then isolated afternoon storms will likely be the norm going into the holiday weekend. Despite the better agreement regarding the trough, the lack of consistency still leads to a lower confidence forecast then and opted to keep pops on the lower end over the weekend for now. Regarding the strength of the storms from Wednesday on, there isn`t any significant severe weather signal on any day. But, a few strong storms will be possible just about any day, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area where the best instability/shear may reside. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1100Z. A westerly flow aloft will persist over the region through the next 24 hrs with a weak weather disturbance moving east along the US/Canadian border this afternoon. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop near the KCTB/KHVR terminals late this morning through this afternoon in association with the weak weather disturbance while clear to partly cloudy conditions prevail elsewhere. Surface winds will shift to northerly this afternoon but most locations should remain at or below 10kts. Exception will be near any thunderstorm activity that develops near the Canadian border where local wind gusts to 30kts are possible along with brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 75 47 82 53 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 71 46 78 50 / 20 10 10 10 HLN 80 52 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 81 46 86 50 / 0 0 10 10 WEY 73 38 76 43 / 0 0 10 10 DLN 79 46 85 51 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 73 48 80 53 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 73 48 80 53 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 319 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016 .DISCUSSION...High pressure is building into the Pacific Northwest today so temperatures will be warmer and above average. There will be low chances for showers in northwest Montana mainly near the Canadian border and into Glacier National Park, otherwise, the rest of north central Idaho and western Montana will be dry with less wind than previous days. Warm temperatures of around 10 degrees above average can be expected each day this week due to high pressure planned to build over north central Idaho and western Montana. The main high pressure ridge will be just east of the region which will allow for weak impulses and shortwave to pass through north central Idaho and western Montana. The passing disturbances will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday will be the first day with shower chances and a few of these may pass during the morning. Each afternoon this week appears to have a chance for showers and thunderstorms with most of these to be near the Continental Divide. The warm pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms will extend into the weekend. && .AVIATION...Skies have cleared region wide, so parts of northwest Montana that recently had rain do have a chance for patchy fog. A weak shortwave will pass through northwest Montana that will mainly produce some cloud cover but a few showers are also possible. The rest of the region will have warm temperatures and dry conditions with mostly clear skies. Winds today are forecast to be lighter than the previous few days. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 317 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday...A westerly flow aloft will persist across the region through early this week as an upper level ridge over the SW US amplifies slightly while mainly weak shortwave energy moving in from the Pacific across the NW US keeps the ridge somewhat suppressed. Weak shortwave embedded within the westerly flow, noted in satellite imagery early this morning over SE BC, will track east along the US/Canadian border today. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible mainly along and north of Hwy 2 this afternoon. Behind this, the ridge temporarily amplifies into the Northern Rockies Monday before the next round of weak shortwave energy, originating over the Eastern Pacific, moves into the region Tuesday. Instability and moisture increase Tuesday afternoon for widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, however flow aloft and shear is relatively weak for limited organization to convection. A gradual warming trend is expected through the next several days with afternoon temperatures today near seasonal averages, warming to above average Monday and Tuesday. Hoenisch Tuesday night through Sunday...The models are in general agreement in the medium range period, keeping an upper level ridge over the western US through at least the end of the upcoming work week. Of note, though, there has been a noticeable trend over the last few days keeping the ridge from getting as amplified as the models suggested a few days ago. And, by next weekend, there is a bit more consistency regarding a possible breakdown of the ridge as the upper level trough sitting off the west coast of North America may begin to edge further inland. Temp-wise, this suggests that temperatures this week may not get quite as warm as originally forecast. It should be noted, however, that the models have struggled some with forecasting the evolution of the trough off the Pac NW coast late in the week which makes the forecast for the July 4th weekend a lower confidence one at this time. Beneath the ridge, it appears that a weak surface convergence zone may setup in the lee of the Rockies from Canada to the Southern Plains. Within this area, increasing instability and moisture combined with the weak convergence should be enough to generate at least isolated showers and storms most days. At this point, it is too early to pinpoint which days may have a better coverage of storms, so kept pops at slight chance / chance each afternoon / evening for now. Very much a summer-time pattern. By the end of the week, a Pacific front may sweep through the area, but this will depend on whether or not the trough off the Pac NW coast can move inland or not. If the trough doesn`t move inland, then isolated afternoon storms will likely be the norm going into the holiday weekend. Despite the better agreement regarding the trough, the lack of consistency still leads to a lower confidence forecast then and opted to keep pops on the lower end over the weekend for now. Regarding the strength of the storms from Wednesday on, there isn`t any significant severe weather signal on any day. But, a few strong storms will be possible just about any day, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area where the best instability/shear may reside. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0535Z. Clouds will continue to decrease tonight for most TAF sites with generally light winds expected. On Sunday afternoon, a weak cold front will drop south out of Canada, reaching KGTF/KLWT by around 00z/MON. A NW/N wind shift can be expected as the front passes through. In addition, a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area may have just enough lift with it to produce isolated SHRA/TSRA across far northern sections of central Montana Sunday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KHVR. If confidence increases regarding the shower activity, then prevailing and/or TEMPO groups for TSRA may be needed in later forecasts. Any SHRA/TSRA that develops could have erratic/gusty winds with it and perhaps a brief period of reduced VIS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 06z/MON. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 75 47 82 53 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 71 46 78 50 / 20 10 10 10 HLN 80 52 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 81 46 86 50 / 0 0 10 10 WEY 73 38 76 43 / 0 0 10 10 DLN 79 46 85 51 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 73 48 80 53 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 73 48 80 53 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 305 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Tue... Synoptic Setup: A large area of hot high pressure sets over the Desert Southwest and lower Intermountain West. A weak ridge rides north out of this airmass through Idaho and Alberta. Mostly zonal flow runs from the Pacific Northwest through the High plains of Montana. A weak remnant trough sets over southern Saskatchewan. Farther west a large synoptic trough sets over the Gulf of Alaska. Today: The remnant trough to the north will drop into the Dakotas and generate enough instability as it clips northeast montana to bring about some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Tonight through Tuesday: Hot high pressure across the Intermountain west will move northward slightly forcing flow over Montana to become more northwest than zonal and increase the curvature to a ridge which should put a limit on showers activitythrough Mid week. Temperatures are also anticipated to creep up during this time as warmer, dryer air aloft moves in. GAH .LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun... Blocking pattern with upper low settling over eastern Canada will dominate through this week. To the west, another low will drop into the Gulf of Alaska. Between the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest resulting in temperatures just a little above normal. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce intermittent thunderstorms through next weekend. Ebert && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected with the TAF cycle. A few showers and breezy northwest winds are possible in the afternoon. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 300 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon... The upper low that brought the windy conditions to the forecast area on Saturday has moved well east of the state and is situated just north of the Great Lakes. A zonal flow aloft and dry conditions will prevail across our area today. Winds will be much lighter than was the case on Saturday. However, some gusty northwest winds can be expected from about Rosebud County eastward this afternoon. A weak front will move across the forecast area this evening allowing winds to become light from the northeast. Mostly sunny skies will continue Monday. However, a weak disturbance over Wyoming will bring a slight thunderstorm chance to the Beartooth/Absaroka and Big Horn Mountains during the afternoon and evening. Winds will become southeasterly by Monday evening and this combined with a low-level jet that develops across western Nebraska and South Dakota will advect some higher dewpoints into Southeast Montana Monday night. In addition, a narrow theta-e axis will move into eastern Wyoming Monday night. Although, at this time, there isn`t much of a trigger mechanism to generate thunderstorms, we have added a slight thunderstorm chance across Powder River and Carter counties for Monday night. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer with lower 80s for most locations. Rising heights Monday will allow temperatures to warm further in the lower to middle 80s. Hooley .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... We did not make any significant changes for the extended period. Looking over ensemble spaghetti charts it appears the overall pattern does not offer up any extreme parameters. The mean ridge axis will likely remain just west of our CWA (western Montana) at day four...with the possibility of it becoming an omega block by day six or seven. This could mean somewhat warmer temperatures for our area late next week along with some influx of moisture from the south. This does not account for the periodic short wave ridge crasher. Progs still support the idea of a decent short wave late Tuesday...and perhaps again Thursday. Due to the influx of southern moisture through the Rockies late in the week (monsoonal in nature), the short waves will have a better opportunity to provide precipitation. The caveat is timing short waves and southern impulses. Thus, we are trending POP`s with a broadbrush as we head toward next weekend with low confidence in 6-12hr time frame skill. That said, CIPS analogs do not indicate much chance of any widespread severe weather for our CWA. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds will prevail again today, but not as strong as yesterday. Look for winds to turn more northerly in the afternoon at sites located on the eastern plains. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 084 055/085 058/090 059/089 058/086 057/088 059/090 0/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 084 045/085 050/090 049/088 047/085 047/086 048/088 0/U 01/U 13/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 086 053/088 056/092 056/089 055/087 055/088 055/092 0/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T MLS 084 055/084 059/089 060/088 059/084 057/085 059/087 0/U 00/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 4BQ 087 055/087 059/092 059/089 058/086 056/086 058/090 0/U 00/U 23/T 42/T 22/T 22/T 22/T BHK 081 051/081 053/086 056/084 055/082 053/081 054/084 0/U 00/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T SHR 085 048/085 051/090 053/088 052/085 052/087 053/090 0/U 01/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Aviation Section Updated... .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Clear skies over much of the forecast area along with light winds will allow for cool overnight temps. Have lowered most temps a bit and freshened POPs. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0535Z. Clouds will continue to decrease tonight for most TAF sites with generally light winds expected. On Sunday afternoon, a weak cold front will drop south out of Canada, reaching KGTF/KLWT by around 00z/MON. A NW/N wind shift can be expected as the front passes through. In addition, a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area may have just enough lift with it to produce isolated SHRA/TSRA across far northern sections of central Montana Sunday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KHVR. If confidence increases regarding the shower activity, then prevailing and/or TEMPO groups for TSRA may be needed in later forecasts. Any SHRA/TSRA that develops could have erratic/gusty winds with it and perhaps a brief period of reduced VIS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 06z/MON. Martin && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 44 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 46 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 47 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 39 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 34 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 40 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 10 20 10 10 LWT 42 76 49 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Aviation Section Updated... .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Clear skies over much of the forecast area along with light winds will allow for cool overnight temps. Have lowered most temps a bit and freshened POPs. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0535Z. Clouds will continue to decrease tonight for most TAF sites with generally light winds expected. On Sunday afternoon, a weak cold front will drop south out of Canada, reaching KGTF/KLWT by around 00z/MON. A NW/N wind shift can be expected as the front passes through. In addition, a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area may have just enough lift with it to produce isolated SHRA/TSRA across far northern sections of central Montana Sunday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KHVR. If confidence increases regarding the shower activity, then prevailing and/or TEMPO groups for TSRA may be needed in later forecasts. Any SHRA/TSRA that develops could have erratic/gusty winds with it and perhaps a brief period of reduced VIS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 06z/MON. Martin && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 44 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 46 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 47 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 39 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 34 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 40 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 10 20 10 10 LWT 42 76 49 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 900 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Clear skies over much of the forecast area along with light winds will allow for cool overnight temps. Have lowered most temps a bit and freshened POPs. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 2320Z. High pressure is building over Central and Southwest Montana and the airmass will generally remain dry through Sunday. Gusty west winds will diminish this evening and most locations will see light winds with only afternoon gustiness through Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 44 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 46 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 47 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 39 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 34 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 40 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 10 20 10 10 LWT 42 76 49 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 826 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon... Evening update: Changes to the forecast were focused on showers across the area quickly dying off. While an area of greater instability exists farther upstream in the northwest flow over the Canadian Provinces, these showers are tied to the afternoon instability and should die out before they arrive into the CWA overnight. GAH Previous short term discussion: The energetic upper low that brought severe thunderstorms Friday and strong northwest winds with scattered showers today to Northeast Montana moves farther east into Manitoba this evening. This movement will begin to diminish its affects tonight on the local area. Wind will diminish enough to expire the wind advisory over Fort peck Lake this evening. Showers should taper off too. Sunday: While ridging begins to build up over the West, the back side of the departing trough will rotate wrap around scattered rain showers over the mainly northern areas. Northwest winds will continue on the brisk side, continuing the cooler than normal feel. Except for areas near the Idaho and Wyoming borders, the hot desert air will be held at bay mainly south of Montana. Monday: The western ridge continues to build up and amplify, nudging the ridge axis over the Divide. Temperatures will return to near normal and winds will become light, for a return to summery conditions. Templer .LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat... Lowered pops slightly early in the period mainly for late Tuesday as much of the shower/tstorm activity looks to be well to our southeast. Rest of forecast looked good. TFJ Previous Long Term Discussion: Upper low currently moving across Montana will reach eastern Canada by the beginning of the extended period on Monday night. To the west, another low has settled over the Gulf of Alaska. With little movement expected of the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies over the next week. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce thunderstorms on most days next week. Ebert && .AVIATION... Showers and gusty winds have dissipated across northeast Montana. Expect vfr conditions mostly clear skies tonight. Sunday will feature NW winds increasing to 15-20 kts by the afternoon with some cumulus clouds. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 805 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... No update to short term forecast this evening. Gusty winds are tapering off...and will continue to do so through the evening. AAG && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, rh values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate rh recoveries can be expected tonight. A building ridge over the Northern Rockies will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds continue...but are tapering off...and will continue to do so this evening. Lighter winds can be expected overnight and Sunday. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 805 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... No update to short term forecast this evening. Gusty winds are tapering off...and will continue to do so through the evening. AAG && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, rh values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate rh recoveries can be expected tonight. A building ridge over the Northern Rockies will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds continue...but are tapering off...and will continue to do so this evening. Lighter winds can be expected overnight and Sunday. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 805 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... No update to short term forecast this evening. Gusty winds are tapering off...and will continue to do so through the evening. AAG && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, rh values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate rh recoveries can be expected tonight. A building ridge over the Northern Rockies will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds continue...but are tapering off...and will continue to do so this evening. Lighter winds can be expected overnight and Sunday. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 805 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... No update to short term forecast this evening. Gusty winds are tapering off...and will continue to do so through the evening. AAG && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, rh values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate rh recoveries can be expected tonight. A building ridge over the Northern Rockies will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds continue...but are tapering off...and will continue to do so this evening. Lighter winds can be expected overnight and Sunday. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 520 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 2320Z. High pressure is building over Central and Southwest Montana and the airmass will generally remain dry through Sunday. Gusty west winds will diminish this evening and most locations will see light winds with only afternoon gustiness through Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 47 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 48 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 48 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 42 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 35 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 44 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 46 76 49 80 / 10 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, afternoon RH values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate RH recoveries can be expected tonight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. Dry weather and warming temperatures can be expected on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. West to northwest winds of 20 to 30 kts with gusts up to 45 kts have been found north of KSHR today. Winds will gradually decrease from west to east this evening and overnight. Lighter winds can be expected for Sunday. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 258 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1800Z. Upper level low/trough will continue to slide east across the US/Canadian border this afternoon. Low to mid level clouds will continue to be a result...along with with a few isolated showers...across north central terminals. VFR conditions mostly expected this afternoon...however...brief MVFR cloud levels may be found. Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies will be found this afternoon...with breezy conditions. Gusts up to 30 Knots are possible. Current vis satellite indicating mountain wave activity likely occurring...perhaps brings some areas of turbulence. After 00z Sunday...winds and clouds will begin to diminish...and VFR conditions are expected with some few to sct mid to high level clouds by Sunday morning. Anglin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 47 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 48 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 48 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 42 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 35 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 44 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 46 76 49 80 / 10 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 240 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016 .DISCUSSION...The weather across much of the Northern Rockies has improved from what we saw yesterday, as the low pressure that brought rain and wind to the region continues to push further eastward. Locations across northwestern Montana should continue to see mostly cloud conditions this afternoon, that will keep afternoon highs noticeable cooler compared to areas around Missoula and points south through central Idaho. Afternoon winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and evening, though not expected to be as strong as yesterday. Glacier National Park may see off and on showers later today, that will keep temperatures below normal for this time of the year. Another weak shortwave of energy will introduce more moisture tomorrow, with Glacier National Park seeing another round of afternoon showers. Elsewhere across the region, temperatures will rise a few degrees from today. A ridge of high pressure will begin to amplify over the Northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday, that will allow for afternoon highs to rise to above normal for this time of year. Some valleys of western Montana could come close to breaking 90F degrees, with north-central Idaho climbing into the mid to upper 90`s. Enough moisture and instability will remain over the region, allowing for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though what does develop may stay more anchored to the terrain. For later next week into the holiday weekend, a typical summer weather pattern appears to continue. Afternoon temperatures should remain generally above normal in the upper 80s to mid 90s with a threat of late day thunder. /ss && .AVIATION...Mostly cloudy, to overcast skies, is expected to remain over Northwestern Montana and the region around KGPI through the rest of the day. Light rain showers will also redevelop over Glacier National Park, that will obscure mountain ridges at times along the Continental Divide. Elsewhere across western Montana and central Idaho, partly cloudy skies and afternoon gusts up to 20kts can be expected, including KBTM and KMSO. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 240 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016 .DISCUSSION...The weather across much of the Northern Rockies has improved from what we saw yesterday, as the low pressure that brought rain and wind to the region continues to push further eastward. Locations across northwestern Montana should continue to see mostly cloud conditions this afternoon, that will keep afternoon highs noticeable cooler compared to areas around Missoula and points south through central Idaho. Afternoon winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and evening, though not expected to be as strong as yesterday. Glacier National Park may see off and on showers later today, that will keep temperatures below normal for this time of the year. Another weak shortwave of energy will introduce more moisture tomorrow, with Glacier National Park seeing another round of afternoon showers. Elsewhere across the region, temperatures will rise a few degrees from today. A ridge of high pressure will begin to amplify over the Northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday, that will allow for afternoon highs to rise to above normal for this time of year. Some valleys of western Montana could come close to breaking 90F degrees, with north-central Idaho climbing into the mid to upper 90`s. Enough moisture and instability will remain over the region, allowing for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though what does develop may stay more anchored to the terrain. For later next week into the holiday weekend, a typical summer weather pattern appears to continue. Afternoon temperatures should remain generally above normal in the upper 80s to mid 90s with a threat of late day thunder. /ss && .AVIATION...Mostly cloudy, to overcast skies, is expected to remain over Northwestern Montana and the region around KGPI through the rest of the day. Light rain showers will also redevelop over Glacier National Park, that will obscure mountain ridges at times along the Continental Divide. Elsewhere across western Montana and central Idaho, partly cloudy skies and afternoon gusts up to 20kts can be expected, including KBTM and KMSO. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 221 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon... The energetic upper low that brought severe thunderstorms Friday and strong northwest winds with scattered showers today to Northeast Montana moves farther east into Manitoba this evening. This movement will begin to diminish its affects tonight on the local area. Wind will diminish enough to expire the wind advisory over Fort peck Lake this evening. Showers should taper off too. Sunday: While ridging begins to build up over the West, the back side of the departing trough will rotate wraparound scattered rain showers over the mainly northern areas. Northwest winds will continue on the brisk side, continuing the cooler than normal feel. Except for areas near the Idaho and Wyoming borders, the hot desert air will be held at bay mainly south of Montana. Monday: The western ridge continues to build up and amplify, nudging the ridge axis over the Divide. Temperatures will return to near normal and winds will become light, for a return to summery conditions. Templer .LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat... Lowered pops slightly early in the period mainly for late Tuesday as much of the shower/tstorm activity looks to be well to our southeast. Rest of forecast looked good. TFJ Previous Discussion... Upper low currently moving across Montana will reach eastern Canada by the beginning of the extended period on Monday night. To the west, another low has settled over the Gulf of Alaska. With little movement expected of the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies over the next week. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce thunderstorms on most days next week. Ebert && .AVIATION... An upper low is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms that are staying just northeast of the TAF sites this afternoon will dissipate by sunset. Gusty nw winds and clouds will also dissipate this evening. Sunday will feature NW winds increasing to 15-20 kts by the afternoon with some cumulus clouds. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1145 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .UPDATE DISCUSSION... Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this morning. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon...mainly across far north and eastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...strong downsloping winds will bring partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions today. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to linger through this afternoon...then begin a diminishing trend after 6 PM this evening and through tonight. Warmer and less breezy conditions are still expected for Sunday...with only an isolated thunderstorm possible across far northern portions. Anglin .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1800Z. Upper level low/trough will continue to slide east across the US/Canadian border this afternoon. Low to mid level clouds will continue to be a result...along with with a few isolated showers...across north central terminals. VFR conditions mostly expected this afternoon...however...brief MVFR cloud levels may be found. Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies will be found this afternoon...with breezy conditions. Gusts up to 30 Knots are possible. Current vis satellite indicating mountain wave activity likely occurring...perhaps brings some areas of turbulence. After 00z Sunday...winds and clouds will begin to diminish...and VFR conditions are expected with some few to sct mid to high level clouds by Sunday morning. Anglin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1145 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .UPDATE DISCUSSION... Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this morning. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon...mainly across far north and eastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...strong downsloping winds will bring partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions today. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to linger through this afternoon...then begin a diminishing trend after 6 PM this evening and through tonight. Warmer and less breezy conditions are still expected for Sunday...with only an isolated thunderstorm possible across far northern portions. Anglin .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1800Z. Upper level low/trough will continue to slide east across the US/Canadian border this afternoon. Low to mid level clouds will continue to be a result...along with with a few isolated showers...across north central terminals. VFR conditions mostly expected this afternoon...however...brief MVFR cloud levels may be found. Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies will be found this afternoon...with breezy conditions. Gusts up to 30 Knots are possible. Current vis satellite indicating mountain wave activity likely occurring...perhaps brings some areas of turbulence. After 00z Sunday...winds and clouds will begin to diminish...and VFR conditions are expected with some few to sct mid to high level clouds by Sunday morning. Anglin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1003 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE DISCUSSION... Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this morning. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon...mainly across far north and eastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...strong downsloping winds will bring partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions today. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to linger through this afternoon...then begin a diminishing trend after 6 PM this evening and through tonight. Warmer and less breezy conditions are still expected for Sunday...with only an isolated thunderstorm possible across far northern portions. .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1200Z. Upper level low/trough moving east along the US/Canadian border today will maintain a NW flow aloft across MT. Showers will primarily affect N-central MT terminals this morning with a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm affecting the KHVR terminal this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with some brief/localized MVFR conditions possible near showers this morning. Mtn top obscuration is also expected across N-central MT Mtns this morning with cloud-bases near 7000 ft MSL. Gusty west winds will begin to diminish this afternoon and further subside tonight as high pressure and drier conditions build in from the West. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 941 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Upper low over northern Montana is slowly shifting off to the east this morning, with a surface low over the eastern Dakotas. This has caused the pressure gradient to tighten across the area. As a result, west to northwest winds have increased across western and central areas this morning, and winds will continue to increase across eastern areas through the day. Generally, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph can be expected, with gusts to around 45 mph possible, especially north and east of Billings this afternoon. While temperatures will be much cooler today with highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees, afternoon relative humidity values will continue to be low, roughly in the middle teens to upper 20s. Have updated the fire weather forecast to include a headline mentioning the low rh continuing. Also adjusted winds and sky cover to current trends. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track and the previous forecast discussion and an updated aviation discussion are below. STP && .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun... A quiet weekend is in store across the forecast outside of some gusty winds today. The upper low that brought some thunderstorm activity across the area Saturday evening is slowly shifting east across the northeast portions of the state and into North Dakota and southern Canada. This low combined with a surface low over the dakotas will result in a tight north/south pressure gradient across the forecast area today, as well as some wrap around clouds. Overall, a partly to mostly sunny day can be expected along with dry conditions. However, gusty west to northwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts around 40 mph will be likely by this afternoon especially for areas north and east of Billings. High temperatures today will be much cooler than the past couple of days with readings in the 70s to around 80 degrees which is at or slightly below normal for this time of year. As for Sunday, skies will be mostly sunny. Although it will be breezy at times, winds will not be nearly as gusty as today. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer with most areas in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Hooley .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... Ridge of high pressure over the Rockies will keep our region generally dry with above normal temperatures for much of the extended period. Proggs indicate periodic short waves rounding the ridge will give us a chance of convection. Best chance of widespread convection points to Tuesday afternoon and evening...and again late Thursday. EC and GFS then diverge on position of ridge axis for next weekend. So confidence below average for and will go with climo POP`s for that time frame. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area today. Winds will continue to increase from west to east this morning with west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 40 kts expected north of KSHR today. Winds will begin to decrease across western areas this afternoon, with winds decreasing across the entire area this evening and overnight. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 080 052/084 055/087 058/090 057/087 058/088 057/088 0/N 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T LVM 075 041/083 046/085 049/089 048/085 047/087 048/087 0/N 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T HDN 081 050/085 053/088 055/090 054/087 054/088 055/089 0/N 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T MLS 075 055/083 055/084 059/089 059/084 058/087 058/085 0/N 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 4BQ 080 053/086 055/088 059/093 058/087 057/089 058/089 0/N 00/U 01/U 24/T 43/T 12/T 22/T BHK 074 052/081 051/082 054/085 055/082 054/083 054/083 0/N 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T SHR 077 045/083 048/087 052/090 053/085 051/087 053/088 0/U 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 915 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Mon... Upper low is clearly evident in the satellite and radar imagery this morning, and is spinning east along the international border. Bands of rain wrap around the core. In Saskatchewan, on the northern side of the low, thunderstorms are frequent. On the south side, rain is spreading east across Phillips and Valley Counties. Cool winds from the west are brisk and gusty and not at all summerlike. Highs today are expected to run 5F to 10F below normal. Winds may increase in the afternoon to around 25g40kt. Main grid edits were to spread pops over a wider area and adjust wind higher and temperatures lower. The edits were based on observations and none were large. Templer Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: As of this morning a large closed low has moved across the international boarder and northern High Plains. This has repressed the hot high pressure back to over the Desert Southwest and Lower Intermountain West and left an area of cool zonal flow over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies in its wake. To the northwest a weak ridge sets over Alberta with a synoptic trough over the Gulf of Alaska. Today through Sunday night: Wrap around precipitation is anticipated to move around the back side of the exiting low and clip the northern most zones with rain showers while bringing cooler temperatures to the whole CWA. Rain will end overnight with cool temperatures expected to remain in place through Sunday night. Monday: with the trough having moved off east the hot high pressure to the Southwest will begin to build again over the Intermountain west and into Montana. this will turn zonal flow to the northwest and bring surface temperatures back into the 80s. GAH .LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat... Upper low currently moving across Montana will reach eastern Canada by the beginning of the extended period on Monday night. To the west, another low has settled over the Gulf of Alaska. With little movement expected of the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies over the next week. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce thunderstorms on most days next week. Ebert && .AVIATION... An upper low is bringing showers to the area this morning, expect brief mvfr conditions under the heaviest showers. Expect these conditions to stay just north of the taf sites for most of the afternoon. Winds: Strong west/northwest with gusts to 40 kts in places this afternoon. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 515 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1200Z. Upper level low/trough moving east along the US/Canadian border today will maintain a NW flow aloft across MT. Showers will primarily affect N-central MT terminals this morning with a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm affecting the KHVR terminal this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with some brief/localized MVFR conditions possible near showers this morning. Mtn top obscuration is also expected across N-central MT Mtns this morning with cloud-bases near 7000 ft MSL. Gusty west winds will begin to diminish this afternoon and further subside tonight as high pressure and drier conditions build in from the West. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 515 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1200Z. Upper level low/trough moving east along the US/Canadian border today will maintain a NW flow aloft across MT. Showers will primarily affect N-central MT terminals this morning with a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm affecting the KHVR terminal this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with some brief/localized MVFR conditions possible near showers this morning. Mtn top obscuration is also expected across N-central MT Mtns this morning with cloud-bases near 7000 ft MSL. Gusty west winds will begin to diminish this afternoon and further subside tonight as high pressure and drier conditions build in from the West. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 342 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun... A quiet weekend is in store across the forecast area outside of some gusty winds today. The upper low that brought some thunderstorm activity across the area Saturday evening is slowly shifting east across the northeast portions of the state and into North Dakota and southern Canada. This low combined with a surface low over the dakotas will result in a tight north/south pressure gradient across the forecast area today, as well as some wrap around clouds. Overall, a partly to mostly sunny day can be expected along with dry conditions. However, gusty west to northwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts around 40 mph will be likely by this afternoon especially for areas north and east of Billings. High temperatures today will be much cooler than the past couple of days with readings in the 70s to around 80 degrees which is at or slightly below normal for this time of year. As for Sunday, skies will be mostly sunny. Although it will be breezy at times, winds will not be nearly as gusty as today. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer with most areas in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Hooley .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... Ridge of high pressure over the Rockies will keep our region generally dry with above normal temperatures for much of the extended period. Proggs indicate periodic short waves rounding the ridge will give us a chance of convection. Best chance of widespread convection points to Tuesday afternoon and evening...and again late Thursday. EC and GFS then diverge on position of ridge axis for next weekend. So confidence below average for and will go with climo POP`s for that time frame. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across TAF sites today. We do anticipate brisk NW surface winds with gusts to 25-35 kts will spread across the region between 12-17z this morning. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 080 052/084 055/087 058/090 057/087 058/088 057/088 0/N 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T LVM 075 041/083 046/085 049/089 048/085 047/087 048/087 0/N 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T HDN 081 050/085 053/088 055/090 054/087 054/088 055/089 0/N 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T MLS 075 055/083 055/084 059/089 059/084 058/087 058/085 0/N 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 4BQ 080 053/086 055/088 059/093 058/087 057/089 058/089 0/N 00/U 01/U 24/T 43/T 12/T 22/T BHK 074 052/081 051/082 054/085 055/082 054/083 054/083 0/N 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T SHR 077 045/083 048/087 052/090 053/085 051/087 053/088 0/U 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 320 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0549Z. A compact upper level low now moving along the Montana/Canada border will shift east overnight, then exit the state by 00z/SUN. A few SHRA lingering east of KLWT will continue to move away from the area over the next few hours. A second round of showers, which has already begun to develop near KCTB, will slowly progress east through Saturday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KGTF/KHVR/KLWT. The light nature of the showers should keep VIS at VFR, although a heavier shower with MVFR or lower VIS cannot be ruled out, especially vicinity KHVR. In addition, CIGS may drop down near or just below MVFR at KHVR as the SHRA move through. The atmosphere may become unstable enough for a few TSRA to develop across eastern sections of central MT on Saturday, but confidence is too low to include TSRA at any TAF site for now. Best chance would be vicinity KHVR. A tightening pressure gradient at the SFC combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to gusty winds at times at all TAF sites, especially early Saturday morning through late Saturday afternoon. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016 .DISCUSSION...Moisture continues to wrap into northwest Montana associated with the exiting low pressure system, so rain and high elevation snow remains this morning. Forecast guidance agree that there will be a decreasing trend in precipitation today with most of it ending by noon. High pressure will begin to move into the region, so temperatures will be warmer today, though breezy winds remain in the forecast. A weak a short wave will pass along the Montana/Canada border on Sunday, so a few showers will be possible in Glacier National Park. Otherwise, the rest of the region will have above normal temperatures under high pressure. The trend from Sunday-onward will be much similar: continued above normal temperatures with mostly sunny skies under persistent high pressure. Temperatures should warm into the upper 80s in valleys Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday...if not longer. While conditions are expected to remain mostly dry across north central Idaho and western Montana during this stretch, there will still be a slight chance for thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. We`ll keep an eye on whether storm development will become an increasing threat in the days to come...but in the meantime, plan for warm temps and mostly sunny, very summer-like conditions next week. && .AVIATION...Lowered cloud cover, rain, high elevation snow, and obscured terrain remain in northwest Montana this morning due to wrap around moisture from the exiting low. Obscured terrain extends into west central Montana and north central Idaho, but high pressure will begin to move in and help decrease cloud cover this morning. Northwest Montana will be the last location to see clearing skies. Westerly winds will again develop this afternoon generally in the 15-25 kt range. Skies will mostly clear region wide during this evening. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning ABOVE 6000 FEET for the West Glacier Region. ID...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 313 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Mon... Synoptic Setup: As of this morning a large closed low has moved across the international boarder and northern High Plains. This has repressed the hot high pressure back to over the Desert Southwest and Lower Intermountain West and left an area of cool zonal flow over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies in its wake. To the northwest a weak ridge sets over Alberta with a synoptic trough over the Gulf of Alaska. Today through Sunday night: Wrap around precipitation is anticipated to move around the back side of the exiting low and clip the northern most zones with rain showers while bringing cooler temperatures to the whole CWA. Rain will end overnight with cool temperatures expected to remain in place through Sunday night. Monday: with the trough having moved off east the hot high pressure to the Southwest will begin to build again over the Intermountain west and into Montana. this will turn zonal flow to the northwest and bring surface temperatures back into the 80s. GAH .LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat... Upper low currently moving across Montana will reach eastern Canada by the beginning of the extended period on Monday night. To the west another low has settled over the Gulf of Alaska. With little movement expected of the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies over the next week. Hot air in the southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce thunderstorms on most days next week. Ebert && .AVIATION... An upper low lifting from Montana into southern Manitoba today will bring strong west to northwest winds to the region today. While mainly VFR conditions are expected, scattered showers could briefly reduce flight conditions this afternoon. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips... Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 1154 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... The threat for severe weather has ended across Custer and Fallon counties. As a result, we have cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch for these areas. In addition, humidities have risen above critical levels with most areas currently above 40 percent across southeast Montana. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning for fire zones 131, 133, AND 274 has been cancelled. Hooley && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun... Water vapor imagery early this afternoon showed an upper low centered over northern Idaho slowly moving east. The upper low will continue to move into northern Montana this evening, dragging an associated cold front across the area. The aforementioned cold front was already beginning to push into the far west as of this writing, with a line of showers and thunderstorms over northern Park County and Wheatland County. Clear skies and mixing winds had allowed central and eastern areas to warm into the 80s and 90s, while 70s were found across the west. The cold front will sweep across the area late this afternoon and evening, eventually pushing east into the Dakotas by late evening/overnight. Winds will turn out of the west northwest just behind the front with winds gusting up to as high as 40 to 50 mph. Winds will decrease some overnight, but increase out of the northwest again on Saturday. While the best instability looks to remain north and east of the area this afternoon and evening, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected ahead of and along the cold front. Thermodynamics look marginal this afternoon and evening, however decent shear should allow for an isolated severe storm or two develop. The main threat with any severe storm would be strong wind gusts. Convection will gradually shift north and east through the evening and overnight as the upper low slides further east. STP For Saturday, the strong upper low will shift eastward into northwest North Dakota by afternoon. The strongest forcing will drive into North Dakota, but enough vorticity advection wrapping around the low to keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms going through the day. The bigger story will be the wind. 850mb winds of 35kts push across the area and this will provide a unseasonably windy day for late June. Expect winds of 15-30mph with gusts to 40mph. Temperatures will be cooler too with highs held in the upper 70s to lower 80s. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... A flat ridge will build Sunday and Monday. This will allow for warming temperatures. The chance of convection will be very limited with precipitable water amounts at a half inch or less. Easterly winds will return for Monday and allow for low level moisture to increase. Shortwave influx will provide some ascent for increasing instability for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of convection will be Tuesday afternoon and evening. A fairly strong shortwave will crash over the top of the ridge for strengthening ascent. MUcapes increase with low level flow turning to the southeast with values reaching around 2000j/kg over the east. Could have some strong storms east of Billings during that time frame. The ridge builds back in place Wednesday through Friday with shortwaves trying to undercut it and provide forcing for convection. Will be a battle between building heights and weak forcing with shortwave activity. Will keep pops low. Temperatures will be warm with the ridge building, but not hot as the ridge axis looks to set up over western Montana providing northwest flow aloft for most of the forecast area. TWH && .AVIATION... Strong NW surface winds with gusts to 40 kt will gradually diminish from W to E across the area overnight. Thunderstorms over Custer and Fallon Counties will create MVFR/IFR conditions in those areas and will be accompanied by potential wind gusts to 50 kt and hail through 06Z. Otherwise VFR will prevail overnight through Saturday. Winds will increase from the W with gusts to 40 kt across the area on Saturday. Arthur && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051/080 052/085 055/088 057/087 057/085 058/088 059/090 20/N 00/U 02/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 23/T LVM 046/075 043/083 046/085 048/086 048/085 049/088 051/089 30/N 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 23/T HDN 049/081 050/085 053/089 056/088 055/086 056/089 057/092 20/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 42/T 22/T 22/T MLS 054/078 055/083 056/085 060/087 060/084 059/087 061/090 21/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 43/T 21/U 12/T 4BQ 052/080 053/086 055/087 059/089 058/084 058/088 060/091 20/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 43/T 22/T 22/T BHK 053/074 052/081 052/082 055/083 056/081 056/084 057/086 20/N 00/N 02/T 24/T 44/T 21/U 12/T SHR 048/078 047/084 051/087 054/088 053/084 053/087 054/090 20/U 00/U 02/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 1154 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... The threat for severe weather has ended across Custer and Fallon counties. As a result, we have cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch for these areas. In addition, humidities have risen above critical levels with most areas currently above 40 percent across southeast Montana. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning for fire zones 131, 133, AND 274 has been cancelled. Hooley && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun... Water vapor imagery early this afternoon showed an upper low centered over northern Idaho slowly moving east. The upper low will continue to move into northern Montana this evening, dragging an associated cold front across the area. The aforementioned cold front was already beginning to push into the far west as of this writing, with a line of showers and thunderstorms over northern Park County and Wheatland County. Clear skies and mixing winds had allowed central and eastern areas to warm into the 80s and 90s, while 70s were found across the west. The cold front will sweep across the area late this afternoon and evening, eventually pushing east into the Dakotas by late evening/overnight. Winds will turn out of the west northwest just behind the front with winds gusting up to as high as 40 to 50 mph. Winds will decrease some overnight, but increase out of the northwest again on Saturday. While the best instability looks to remain north and east of the area this afternoon and evening, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected ahead of and along the cold front. Thermodynamics look marginal this afternoon and evening, however decent shear should allow for an isolated severe storm or two develop. The main threat with any severe storm would be strong wind gusts. Convection will gradually shift north and east through the evening and overnight as the upper low slides further east. STP For Saturday, the strong upper low will shift eastward into northwest North Dakota by afternoon. The strongest forcing will drive into North Dakota, but enough vorticity advection wrapping around the low to keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms going through the day. The bigger story will be the wind. 850mb winds of 35kts push across the area and this will provide a unseasonably windy day for late June. Expect winds of 15-30mph with gusts to 40mph. Temperatures will be cooler too with highs held in the upper 70s to lower 80s. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... A flat ridge will build Sunday and Monday. This will allow for warming temperatures. The chance of convection will be very limited with precipitable water amounts at a half inch or less. Easterly winds will return for Monday and allow for low level moisture to increase. Shortwave influx will provide some ascent for increasing instability for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of convection will be Tuesday afternoon and evening. A fairly strong shortwave will crash over the top of the ridge for strengthening ascent. MUcapes increase with low level flow turning to the southeast with values reaching around 2000j/kg over the east. Could have some strong storms east of Billings during that time frame. The ridge builds back in place Wednesday through Friday with shortwaves trying to undercut it and provide forcing for convection. Will be a battle between building heights and weak forcing with shortwave activity. Will keep pops low. Temperatures will be warm with the ridge building, but not hot as the ridge axis looks to set up over western Montana providing northwest flow aloft for most of the forecast area. TWH && .AVIATION... Strong NW surface winds with gusts to 40 kt will gradually diminish from W to E across the area overnight. Thunderstorms over Custer and Fallon Counties will create MVFR/IFR conditions in those areas and will be accompanied by potential wind gusts to 50 kt and hail through 06Z. Otherwise VFR will prevail overnight through Saturday. Winds will increase from the W with gusts to 40 kt across the area on Saturday. Arthur && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051/080 052/085 055/088 057/087 057/085 058/088 059/090 20/N 00/U 02/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 23/T LVM 046/075 043/083 046/085 048/086 048/085 049/088 051/089 30/N 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 23/T HDN 049/081 050/085 053/089 056/088 055/086 056/089 057/092 20/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 42/T 22/T 22/T MLS 054/078 055/083 056/085 060/087 060/084 059/087 061/090 21/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 43/T 21/U 12/T 4BQ 052/080 053/086 055/087 059/089 058/084 058/088 060/091 20/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 43/T 22/T 22/T BHK 053/074 052/081 052/082 055/083 056/081 056/084 057/086 20/N 00/N 02/T 24/T 44/T 21/U 12/T SHR 048/078 047/084 051/087 054/088 053/084 053/087 054/090 20/U 00/U 02/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1149 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Aviation Section Updated... .DISCUSSION... Tonight...The cold front is well east of the zones and brisk, west winds have spread through the western zones and into the east. The airmass has dried behind the front and have updated to freshen POPs, WX, and QPF. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0549Z. A compact upper level low now moving along the Montana/Canada border will shift east overnight, then exit the state by 00z/SUN. A few SHRA lingering east of KLWT will continue to move away from the area over the next few hours. A second round of showers, which has already begun to develop near KCTB, will slowly progress east through Saturday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KGTF/KHVR/KLWT. The light nature of the showers should keep VIS at VFR, although a heavier shower with MVFR or lower VIS cannot be ruled out, especially vicinity KHVR. In addition, CIGS may drop down near or just below MVFR at KHVR as the SHRA move through. The atmosphere may become unstable enough for a few TSRA to develop across eastern sections of central MT on Saturday, but confidence is too low to include TSRA at any TAF site for now. Best chance would be vicinity KHVR. A tightening pressure gradient at the SFC combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to gusty winds at times at all TAF sites, especially early Saturday morning through late Saturday afternoon. Martin && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Sunday...Upper trof will continue its eastward trek across northern Montana overnight. Moist south to southwest diffluent flow aloft, and a cold front, have contributed to the development of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Though shear values are high, CAPE values are not very impressive and is one reason storms are not reaching severe criteria. Also, storm motion to the northeast is very fast. Heavy rain and small hail are the main threats from these afternoon storms. The upper trof will be over northeast Montana by early Saturday and the wrap around circulation will bring scattered morning showers to the Hi-Line and to the eastern portion of the county warning area. Precipitation will end Saturday night as upper ridging builds over western Montana. Short wave energy within the northwest flow aloft will bring isolated showers to the Hi-Line again on Sunday afternoon. As the upper trof pushes east tonight, west winds will increase and become strong and gusty by early Saturday morning. Gusts to 50 mph are possible, mainly between midnight and daybreak and will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the northern plains. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages through the weekend. Sunday night through Friday...Models are in generally good agreement in the medium range period keeping an upper level ridge in place across the western US, extending all the way north into western Canada. Given the expected strength of the ridge, the upper level trough over the eastern Pacific is unlikely to make much headway into the Pac NW through next week. Locally, this should translate into a warm and somewhat drier weather pattern next week. The main differences in the models next week is the timing, strength, and amount of moisture with several weak shortwaves forecast to move through the ridge and across parts of Montana. Despite the weak nature of each s/w, they should provide just enough lift for at least isolated to widely scattered storms. At this point, confidence in storms developing is highest late Monday into Tuesday, especially across central Montana, and for this reason, opted to go with slightly higher pops compared to previous forecasts. Forecast soundings across central Montana Tuesday afternoon show modest instability/shear suggesting a few strong to severe storms will be possible then. Strong storms cannot be ruled out later in the week as well, but model differences regarding timing, strength, and location of each s/w leads to lower confidence regarding the strength of storms beyond Tuesday. The ridge building in next week looks to reach its peak in strength mid to late week across the Pac NW. So, after a brief cool down this weekend, temperatures should quickly rebound back above to well above normal later next week. At lower elevations, this means highs likely warming well into the 80s to near 90 degrees once again. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 74 46 77 / 30 20 0 0 CTB 49 70 46 73 / 70 10 10 20 HLN 50 76 49 81 / 20 10 0 0 BZN 42 76 43 81 / 20 0 0 0 WEY 34 65 36 70 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 39 74 42 80 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 49 73 50 76 / 30 60 10 20 LWT 45 73 47 76 / 30 20 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1149 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Aviation Section Updated... .DISCUSSION... Tonight...The cold front is well east of the zones and brisk, west winds have spread through the western zones and into the east. The airmass has dried behind the front and have updated to freshen POPs, WX, and QPF. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0549Z. A compact upper level low now moving along the Montana/Canada border will shift east overnight, then exit the state by 00z/SUN. A few SHRA lingering east of KLWT will continue to move away from the area over the next few hours. A second round of showers, which has already begun to develop near KCTB, will slowly progress east through Saturday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KGTF/KHVR/KLWT. The light nature of the showers should keep VIS at VFR, although a heavier shower with MVFR or lower VIS cannot be ruled out, especially vicinity KHVR. In addition, CIGS may drop down near or just below MVFR at KHVR as the SHRA move through. The atmosphere may become unstable enough for a few TSRA to develop across eastern sections of central MT on Saturday, but confidence is too low to include TSRA at any TAF site for now. Best chance would be vicinity KHVR. A tightening pressure gradient at the SFC combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to gusty winds at times at all TAF sites, especially early Saturday morning through late Saturday afternoon. Martin && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Sunday...Upper trof will continue its eastward trek across northern Montana overnight. Moist south to southwest diffluent flow aloft, and a cold front, have contributed to the development of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Though shear values are high, CAPE values are not very impressive and is one reason storms are not reaching severe criteria. Also, storm motion to the northeast is very fast. Heavy rain and small hail are the main threats from these afternoon storms. The upper trof will be over northeast Montana by early Saturday and the wrap around circulation will bring scattered morning showers to the Hi-Line and to the eastern portion of the county warning area. Precipitation will end Saturday night as upper ridging builds over western Montana. Short wave energy within the northwest flow aloft will bring isolated showers to the Hi-Line again on Sunday afternoon. As the upper trof pushes east tonight, west winds will increase and become strong and gusty by early Saturday morning. Gusts to 50 mph are possible, mainly between midnight and daybreak and will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the northern plains. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages through the weekend. Sunday night through Friday...Models are in generally good agreement in the medium range period keeping an upper level ridge in place across the western US, extending all the way north into western Canada. Given the expected strength of the ridge, the upper level trough over the eastern Pacific is unlikely to make much headway into the Pac NW through next week. Locally, this should translate into a warm and somewhat drier weather pattern next week. The main differences in the models next week is the timing, strength, and amount of moisture with several weak shortwaves forecast to move through the ridge and across parts of Montana. Despite the weak nature of each s/w, they should provide just enough lift for at least isolated to widely scattered storms. At this point, confidence in storms developing is highest late Monday into Tuesday, especially across central Montana, and for this reason, opted to go with slightly higher pops compared to previous forecasts. Forecast soundings across central Montana Tuesday afternoon show modest instability/shear suggesting a few strong to severe storms will be possible then. Strong storms cannot be ruled out later in the week as well, but model differences regarding timing, strength, and location of each s/w leads to lower confidence regarding the strength of storms beyond Tuesday. The ridge building in next week looks to reach its peak in strength mid to late week across the Pac NW. So, after a brief cool down this weekend, temperatures should quickly rebound back above to well above normal later next week. At lower elevations, this means highs likely warming well into the 80s to near 90 degrees once again. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 74 46 77 / 30 20 0 0 CTB 49 70 46 73 / 70 10 10 20 HLN 50 76 49 81 / 20 10 0 0 BZN 42 76 43 81 / 20 0 0 0 WEY 34 65 36 70 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 39 74 42 80 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 49 73 50 76 / 30 60 10 20 LWT 45 73 47 76 / 30 20 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 944 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sun... Update: Severe thunderstorms have cleared northeast Montana, and pushed into North Dakota. Therefore updated to end the watch. Also tweaked pops and winds based off of the latest observations. Should be a cool but breezy night across the area. Gilchrist The initial longwave pattern across CONUS this evening consists of storm system/upper trough rotating and pushing across the Divide, and an upper ridge moving east across the Central Plains. The trough/low center will move across Northeast Montana on Saturday and into Quebec Province on Sunday. So the short-term will see active weather, beginning with thunderstorms tonight, strong winds on Saturday, and showers on Sunday. The trough will bring cooler than normal temperatures for the weekend. Tonight: At 00Z a moderately strong cold front begins to plow through Northeast Montana. It will meet up in the forecast area with a moist and unstable airmass. Thunderstorms and rain showers will likely intensify, becoming severe. Strong winds aloft suggest the potential for damaging winds and large hail. SPC has placed most of the CWA in its Convective Outlook for a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms. Diminishing storms and rain showers may not totally exit the area until around sunrise. Saturday: The closed upper low/storm center will move through the local region, but mainly keeping showers to the north in Canada and near or north of the Hi-Line. The main issue will be the wind strength. Mid-morning westerly winds may reach 25g40kt. Afternoon northwesterly winds may reach 30g50kt. Will go ahead and issue an NPW for Fort Peck Lake from 15Z to 03Z. Saturday night through Sunday: Showers wrapping around behind the storms will create a chance for rain showers, mainly north of the Missouri River. Templer .LONG TERM...Sun night through Fri... not too many changes were made today. subtle disturbances occasionally will move through the upper ridge. upper flow will be weaker so severe thunderstorm chances should be lower. TFJ previous discussion... Synoptic Setup: Long range begins with a large trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern US Plains. A second large trough resides over the northeast Pacific centered around or just south of the Gulf of Alaska. A large airmass of hot high pressure resides over the Desert Southwest and runs as far north as southern Idaho. A slightly cooler ridge juts out of the high pressure through western Montana and through Alberta. Sunday night through Monday: Northeast Montana lies on the stable side of a developing ridge to the west. conditions will warm but remain mostly dry. Monday night through Wednesday: A shortwave will move around the edges of the hot high pressure and through eastern Montana. Tuesday and Tuesday night look to be the prime impact times with showers being scattered. Wednesday onward: Hot air from down south will fill in the ridge into southern Alberta and then slowly move it over Montana. This will increase temperatures and lower chances for showers and thunderstorms slightly until the ridge axis hits. The only other chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during night time when the K-boundary from the desert air passes over the region. GAH && .AVIATION... SYNOPSIS: Upper low system moving in from the Pacific NW will bring unsettled conditions through Saturday. SEVERE WX: Evening severe thunderstorms still look on tap with damaging winds being the main threat. Gusts over 60 kts are possible with some storms. Making sure AIRCRAFT are tied down or in sheltered locations is recommended. WINDS: Winds will turn clockwise to the east ahead of the thunderstorms then punch in from the northwest for a couple hours in the wake of the storms. Expect them to increase saturday with gusts to 40 kts during the afternoon. They will diminish Saturday evening. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1157 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building aloft will support continued hot conditions away from the coast through Wednesday. High pressure will likely weaken and shift eastward for the second half of the week resulting in a gradual cooling trend heading into next weekend. && .UPDATE... The latest visible imagery indicates marine layer stratus well entrenched along the beaches this morning. The current marine layer depth is around 700 feet on the latest KLAX AMDAR soundings. With the tight marine inversion, the stratus will likely struggle could struggle to pull away from the coast this afternoon. Some clouds should be expected to hang near the coastline this afternoon. Outside of the marine layer, the air mass will continue to warm up. Onshore flow is weakening this morning as high pressure over the Four Corners region strengthens and expands westward. A hot air mass will be in place for early this week. The heat could turn dangerously hot over the next couple of days. Heat index values look to fall short of criteria today, but a tick up in the humidity could increase heat index values to critical levels. Model solutions are starting to pick up on the moisture over Southeast Arizona this morning and pushing northwestward into Southern California on Monday. This could enough of a bump to push heat index values higher on Monday and maybe bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to San Gabriel Mountains. PoPs will likely be increased for Monday and Monday evening, but data will be monitored for changes. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE) Really not much change in the forecast for Monday. Maybe a little more mid level moisture. Maybe a little more humid at low levels. Do have to watch the low level RH though because if it comes in just a little higher than fcst a few areas will see heat index values sufficiently high for Heat Warnings. Still hot everywhere except the beaches. Large upper high to the east really does not change much Tuesday. Hgts remain near 594 DM. There does not look like there will be much an eddy and the low clouds should only affect the L.A. coast. There are slight onshore trends in the SFC grads both to the north and east and this will allow for a few degrees of cooling across the coasts and to a lesser degree the vlys, The interior will continue to sizzle. .LONG TERM...(WED-SAT) On Wednesday the closed upper high is forecast to weaken into a ridge and slide slowly to the east. This will start temps to slide downward. The marine layer will probably only affect the LA county coast. The ridge will slowly break down Thursday and Friday. The easterly gradients will slowly increase through the period. The coasts will cool to normal values. The vlys and the interior will cool as well but since the hgts remain at 591 DM max temps there will remain above normal. Both the EC and GFS show no sign of monsoon moisture making far enough westward to affect L.A. county. && .AVIATION...26/1800Z. At 1724Z at KLAX...The marine layer was about 1050 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 2740 feet with a temperature of about 30 degrees Celsius. Limited marine cloud coverage due to a fairly shallow marine layer will continue through Monday. There is good confidence in the 18z TAF package. A persistent marine cloud pattern is expected into Monday with marine clouds likely affecting the same locations as this morning. KLAX...A sea breeze is pushing the marine clouds across the western portion of the airfield this afternoon at times and this may continue into the late evening when the low clouds move in again for good. There is a 30 percent chance that the low clouds may move in by early evening. IFR conditions are expected tonight into Monday morning. KBUR...High confidence in the 18z TAF forecast as VFR conditions will persist into Monday. && .MARINE...26/900 AM... Northwest winds will remain strong across the outer waters and the Small Craft Advisories for the area have been extended. The stronger winds will continue through Tuesday and likely beyond for the northern and central outer waters. For the southern outer waters...the winds will dip below Small Craft Advisory levels at times but will be near criteria through at least early tomorrow morning. For the inner waters... northwest winds will be strongest each afternoon and evening over the next few days with a thirty percent chance of gusts reaching advisory levels north of Point Conception. For the southern inner waters... winds will remain below advisory levels through early next week. There is a slight chance of gusts reaching advisory levels across western sections each afternoon and evening... especially across the western Santa Barbara Channel. Locally dense fog will occur across the coastal waters this morning...especially south of Point Conception. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon For zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday For zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Hall AVIATION...Sweet MARINE...Sweet SYNOPSIS...Munroe weather.gov/losangeles
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1002 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The warming trend will continue with afternoon temperatures peaking through Wednesday then cooling slightly into the weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal through the week. Patchy overnight and morning fog is possible primarily south of Point Conception. && .UPDATE... The latest visible imagery indicates marine layer stratus well entrenched along the beaches this morning. The current marine layer depth is around 700 feet on the latest KLAX AMDAR soundings. With the tight marine inversion, the stratus will likely struggle could struggle to pull away from the coast this afternoon. Some clouds should be expected to hang near the coastline this afternoon. Outside of the marine layer, the air mass will continue to warm up. Onshore flow is weakening this morning as high pressure over the Four Corners region strengthens and expands westward. A hot air mass will be in place for early this week. The heat could turn dangerously hot over the next couple of days. Heat index values look to fall short of criteria today, but a tick up in the humidity could increase heat index values to critical levels. Model solutions are starting to pick up on the moisture over Southeast Arizona this morning and pushing northwestward into Southern California on Monday. This could enough of a bump to push heat index values higher on Monday and maybe bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to San Gabriel Mountains. PoPs will likely be increased for Monday and Monday evening, but data will be monitored for changes. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Really not much change in the forecast for Monday. Maybe a little more mid level moisture. Maybe a little more humid at low levels. Do have to watch the low level RH though because if it comes in just a little higher than fcst a few areas will see heat index values sufficiently high for Heat Warnings. Still hot everywhere except the beaches. Large upper high to the east really does not change much Tuesday. Hgts remain near 594 DM. There does not look like there will be much an eddy and the low clouds should only affect the L.A. coast. There are slight onshore trends in the SFC grads both to the north and east and this will allow for a few degrees of cooling across the coasts and to a lesser degree the vlys, The interior will continue to sizzle. LONG TERM...On Wednesday the closed upper high is forecast to weaken into a ridge and slide slowly to the east. This will start temps to slide downward. The marine layer will probably only affect the LA county coast. The ridge will slowly break down Thursday and Friday. The easterly gradients will slowly increase through the period. The coasts will cool to normal values. The vlys and the interior will cool as well but since the hgts remain at 591 DM max temps there will remain above normal. Both the EC and GFS show no sign of monsoon moisture making far enough westward to affect L.A. county. && .AVIATION...26/12Z. At 08Z at KLAX...the inversion was about 2950 feet deep. The top was near 4150 feet with a temperature of about 29 degrees Celsius. Overall...Moderate confidence in the 12z TAFs. The reduced confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing...location...and intensity of low cigs and vsbys for coastal and adjacent valley sites. There is a thirty five percent chance that the projected low cigs and/or vsbys in the TAF will not occur...or that low cigs and/or vsbys will occur at coastal sites without them in the TAF. There is a twenty percent chance of low cigs and/or vsbys occuring at KBUR and KVNY through 17Z. Otherwise and elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12z TAF. The reduced confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing and intensity of low cigs and vsbys. There is a thirty five percent chance that low cigs and/or vsbys will not occur. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. The reduced confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in low cigs and vsbys affecting the airport. There is a twenty percent chance of low cigs and/or vsbys through 17Z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE...26/900 AM. Northwest winds will remain strong across the outer waters and the Small Craft Advisories for the area have been extended. The stronger winds will continue through Tuesday and likely beyond for the northern and central outer waters. For the southern outer waters...the winds will dip below Small Craft Advisory levels at times but will be near criteria through at least early tomorrow morning. For the inner waters... northwest winds will be strongest each afternoon and evening over the next few days with a thirty percent chance of gusts reaching advisory levels north of Point Conception. For the southern inner waters... winds will remain below advisory levels through early next week. There is a slight chance of gusts reaching advisory levels across western sections each afternoon and evening... especially across the western Santa Barbara Channel. Locally dense fog will occur across the coastal waters this morning...especially south of Point Conception. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon For zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday For zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Hall/Rorke AVIATION...KJ MARINE...Sweet SYNOPSIS...Munroe weather.gov/losangeles Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 348 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Tuesday...Weak wave and associated cold front has entered into norther MT with areas of scattered thunderstorms currently occurring. Cape was able to climb to near 1000 J/kg this afternoon across far northeastern portions of the CWA...however the best shear still remains away from this wave. Without the shear to help fully develop these storms...generally brief heavy rain and lightning will be the main threats through the evening...although cannot rule out a very isolated wind gust near 30 knots and small hail. Fair weather CU...light winds...and near average temperatures will be found across the remainder of the CWA this evening. Thunderstorms end quickly tonight once the sunsets...with mainly clear skies and near normal temps expected. Ridge of high pressure will build across the area for Monday...warming temperatures back into the 80s across many areas. Plenty of instability will be found across the region...however...a lack of moisture and no strong lift mechanism...will lead to only isolated mountain thunderstorms for Monday afternoon. Monday night into Tuesday...A potential breakdown of the ridge could return somewhat active weather to the region. NAM kicks off the show now late Monday night into Tuesday morning with an increase in moisture and weak wave going over the top of the ridge. GFS is also hinting at this early show...so added slight pops to account for it. Models now have become a little unsure for how activity plays out on Tuesday. NAM shows ample instability and a weak front sliding in with the broken down ridge from the morning`s disturbance. This would place the best chances for thunderstorms along and north of a line from Great Falls to Lewistown. GFS only hinting at scattered activity...and ECMWF delays the ridge breakdown until Tuesday afternoon...providing more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Given uncertainty...mainly left the previous forecast in then added chance pops to northern area the NAM was hinting at as previously mentioned. If thunderstorms can get going Tuesday...a few stronger storms are possible given the modest cape and shear...along with dewpoints returning into the 50s. Anglin Tuesday night through Sunday...The models are in general agreement in the medium range period, keeping an upper level ridge over the western US through at least the end of the upcoming work week. Of note, though, there has been a noticeable trend over the last few days keeping the ridge from getting as amplified as the models suggested a few days ago. And, by next weekend, there is a bit more consistency regarding a possible breakdown of the ridge as the upper level trough sitting off the west coast of North America may begin to edge further inland. Temp-wise, this suggests that temperatures this week may not get quite as warm as originally forecast. It should be noted, however, that the models have struggled some with forecasting the evolution of the trough off the Pac NW coast late in the week which makes the forecast for the July 4th weekend a lower confidence one at this time. Beneath the ridge, it appears that a weak surface convergence zone may setup in the lee of the Rockies from Canada to the Southern Plains. Within this area, increasing instability and moisture combined with the weak convergence should be enough to generate at least isolated showers and storms most days. At this point, it is too early to pinpoint which days may have a better coverage of storms, so kept pops at slight chance / chance each afternoon / evening for now. Very much a summer-time pattern. By the end of the week, a Pacific front may sweep through the area, but this will depend on whether or not the trough off the Pac NW coast can move inland or not. If the trough doesn`t move inland, then isolated afternoon storms will likely be the norm going into the holiday weekend. Despite the better agreement regarding the trough, the lack of consistency still leads to a lower confidence forecast then and opted to keep pops on the lower end over the weekend for now. Regarding the strength of the storms from Wednesday on, there isn`t any significant severe weather signal on any day. But, a few strong storms will be possible just about any day, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area where the best instability/shear may reside. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1800Z. A weak upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern portions of Montana today. Sites from KCTB to KHVR will have the best chances for at least VCTS this afternoon. Any thunderstorm that does develop could produce gusts up to 30 knots...and perhaps brief MVFR conditions. Elsewhere...mainly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with lighter winds than yesterday. Tonight into Monday morning...thunderstorms will diminish shortly after sunset...with VFR and dry conditions expected. Anglin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 48 83 53 85 / 0 10 10 20 CTB 45 79 50 81 / 20 10 10 30 HLN 52 86 57 87 / 0 10 10 20 BZN 48 87 51 87 / 0 10 10 20 WEY 39 77 43 79 / 0 10 10 20 DLN 47 86 51 87 / 0 10 10 20 HVR 49 81 53 84 / 20 10 0 30 LWT 47 81 53 83 / 0 10 10 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 318 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue... Generally pleasant weather was found across the area today as zonal flow aloft brought dry conditions with temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s. Gusty west to northwest winds across the east will gradually decrease this evening. Winds will turn out of the north and east overnight as a weak front crosses the region. At this point the area looks to remain dry, although models do hint at some precipitation over the northern Black Hills as the front passes through. Mainly dry conditions will continue into Monday as ridging builds over the Northern Rockies. Temperatures will be slightly higher with 80s expected. However, a weak disturbance over Wyoming will bring a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to the Beartooth/Absaroka and Big Horn Mountains during the afternoon and evening. Have kept a slight chance of thunderstorms over the southeast Monday night as winds turn more southeasterly, and instability increases as a low level jet looks to develop and a theta-e ridge noses in. STP For Tuesday, shortwave energy streams into the area. Low level flow will be out of the east over eastern Montana and this allows MUcapes to rise to around 2000 j/kg. Forcing does not look overly strong as shortwaves come across in pieces, but there is a coupled jet that positions itself over southeast Montana during the afternoon. Will keep scattered pops in play east of Billings with the possibility of a couple strong storms. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun... The extended pattern from Wednesday onward looks persistent through next weekend. This pattern involves a ridge axis placed over western Montana with shortwave energy streaming into the ridge from the southwest. Timing of the individual waves will be problematic and difficult to pin point, so feel the broad brushed approach on PoPs is the way to go. Precipitable waters will be highest over the east, as they rise to around 1 inch Friday into Saturday. Looks like the most likely days for convection will be Friday and Saturday. The airmass dries out a bit on Saturday, but forcing looks a little stronger then. Temperatures will be just above seasonal averages with the placement of ridge axis. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds, particularly east of a KBIL-KSHR line will turn more northerly and decrease into the evening. Light north to northeast winds can be expected across the area overnight. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 055/085 058/089 060/087 058/086 059/087 059/090 060/091 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T 22/T LVM 045/084 049/089 050/086 049/084 049/086 049/088 050/088 01/U 13/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T 22/T HDN 053/088 056/091 058/088 056/087 057/088 056/091 056/093 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T MLS 055/084 059/089 060/087 060/085 059/086 060/089 061/091 00/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 22/T 4BQ 055/086 057/091 059/088 058/086 058/086 058/089 059/093 10/U 23/T 42/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T BHK 051/082 053/087 056/084 056/081 054/081 055/083 057/087 00/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T SHR 048/085 052/090 055/085 053/083 054/085 054/088 055/092 01/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 318 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue... Generally pleasant weather was found across the area today as zonal flow aloft brought dry conditions with temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s. Gusty west to northwest winds across the east will gradually decrease this evening. Winds will turn out of the north and east overnight as a weak front crosses the region. At this point the area looks to remain dry, although models do hint at some precipitation over the northern Black Hills as the front passes through. Mainly dry conditions will continue into Monday as ridging builds over the Northern Rockies. Temperatures will be slightly higher with 80s expected. However, a weak disturbance over Wyoming will bring a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to the Beartooth/Absaroka and Big Horn Mountains during the afternoon and evening. Have kept a slight chance of thunderstorms over the southeast Monday night as winds turn more southeasterly, and instability increases as a low level jet looks to develop and a theta-e ridge noses in. STP For Tuesday, shortwave energy streams into the area. Low level flow will be out of the east over eastern Montana and this allows MUcapes to rise to around 2000 j/kg. Forcing does not look overly strong as shortwaves come across in pieces, but there is a coupled jet that positions itself over southeast Montana during the afternoon. Will keep scattered pops in play east of Billings with the possibility of a couple strong storms. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun... The extended pattern from Wednesday onward looks persistent through next weekend. This pattern involves a ridge axis placed over western Montana with shortwave energy streaming into the ridge from the southwest. Timing of the individual waves will be problematic and difficult to pin point, so feel the broad brushed approach on PoPs is the way to go. Precipitable waters will be highest over the east, as they rise to around 1 inch Friday into Saturday. Looks like the most likely days for convection will be Friday and Saturday. The airmass dries out a bit on Saturday, but forcing looks a little stronger then. Temperatures will be just above seasonal averages with the placement of ridge axis. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds, particularly east of a KBIL-KSHR line will turn more northerly and decrease into the evening. Light north to northeast winds can be expected across the area overnight. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 055/085 058/089 060/087 058/086 059/087 059/090 060/091 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T 22/T LVM 045/084 049/089 050/086 049/084 049/086 049/088 050/088 01/U 13/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T 22/T HDN 053/088 056/091 058/088 056/087 057/088 056/091 056/093 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T MLS 055/084 059/089 060/087 060/085 059/086 060/089 061/091 00/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 22/T 4BQ 055/086 057/091 059/088 058/086 058/086 058/089 059/093 10/U 23/T 42/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T BHK 051/082 053/087 056/084 056/081 054/081 055/083 057/087 00/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T SHR 048/085 052/090 055/085 053/083 054/085 054/088 055/092 01/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 234 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016 .DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure has begun to build over the Northern Rockies today, allowing for much warmer temperatures than previous days. Most locations in western Montana and north-central Idaho, will remain mainly sunny with a few patches of clouds. However, areas around Glacier National Park will have the possibility of seeing isolated showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. The ridge will continue to build over the region for the first part of next week, with afternoon highs reaching 10 degrees or more above normal. Some locations in western Montana could see afternoon readings breaking 90F degrees, while valleys of north- central Idaho making it into the upper 90s. There will be some increase in moisture being transported under the ridge that will help in the development of isolated thunderstorms each afternoon on Monday and Tuesday. These thunderstorms are not expected to be very strong and will likely be very spotty. Some linger showers may be possible for the Tuesday morning commute across west-central Montana and north-central Idaho. The latter half of this week (Thursday & Friday) looks to be quite warm, with high temperatures running around 10 degrees above normal and overnight lows some 5 degrees above normal. Models are showing better agreement today regarding a monsoonal moisture push gradually working its way north through the Great Basin with arrival into the Northern Rockies forecast for Thursday afternoon. This would bring a good chance for thunderstorms across much of Idaho and Montana on Thursday and perhaps even Friday. Lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rain appear to be the greatest threats at this time. Independence Day Weekend: There is growing model agreement that this week`s ridge of high pressure will begin to break down over the weekend ahead of an low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska into northern British Columbia. Forecast models are still showing a vast array of possibilities, but overall the data suggests leaning towards cooler conditions (i.e. normal temperatures) with the chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through Independence Day. && .AVIATION...Skies have largely remained clear for much of the Northern Rockies today. This is expected to continue through the evening, with exception for the mountains near Glacier National Park, where scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are expected. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon across western Montana and north-central Idaho, though chances are very low, and will likely remain anchored to the terrain if they do develop. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 234 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016 .DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure has begun to build over the Northern Rockies today, allowing for much warmer temperatures than previous days. Most locations in western Montana and north-central Idaho, will remain mainly sunny with a few patches of clouds. However, areas around Glacier National Park will have the possibility of seeing isolated showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. The ridge will continue to build over the region for the first part of next week, with afternoon highs reaching 10 degrees or more above normal. Some locations in western Montana could see afternoon readings breaking 90F degrees, while valleys of north- central Idaho making it into the upper 90s. There will be some increase in moisture being transported under the ridge that will help in the development of isolated thunderstorms each afternoon on Monday and Tuesday. These thunderstorms are not expected to be very strong and will likely be very spotty. Some linger showers may be possible for the Tuesday morning commute across west-central Montana and north-central Idaho. The latter half of this week (Thursday & Friday) looks to be quite warm, with high temperatures running around 10 degrees above normal and overnight lows some 5 degrees above normal. Models are showing better agreement today regarding a monsoonal moisture push gradually working its way north through the Great Basin with arrival into the Northern Rockies forecast for Thursday afternoon. This would bring a good chance for thunderstorms across much of Idaho and Montana on Thursday and perhaps even Friday. Lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rain appear to be the greatest threats at this time. Independence Day Weekend: There is growing model agreement that this week`s ridge of high pressure will begin to break down over the weekend ahead of an low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska into northern British Columbia. Forecast models are still showing a vast array of possibilities, but overall the data suggests leaning towards cooler conditions (i.e. normal temperatures) with the chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through Independence Day. && .AVIATION...Skies have largely remained clear for much of the Northern Rockies today. This is expected to continue through the evening, with exception for the mountains near Glacier National Park, where scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are expected. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon across western Montana and north-central Idaho, though chances are very low, and will likely remain anchored to the terrain if they do develop. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 224 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Tue... Remnants of the departed trough/storm system extend back into Saskatchewan and Northeast Montana this evening. A short-wave that is a piece of the trough drops through the local area producing low clouds and isolated showers and thunder. Low clouds, mainly over out northeast corner, will last through monday morning. the boundary between the cooler air of Canada and the hot high pressure dome over the desert Southwest will remain to the south of Nemont. This should limit Monday`s highs close to seasonal norms. Monday and Tuesday: the Western ridge axis will peak over the Northern Rockies, maintaining a northwest flow over the rest of Montana. This pattern will keep the area mostly dry for the short term period. With the ridge in place, the hot air-mass will push north into Southern Montana. Highs on Tuesday will push higher than normal. With light wind throughout, the short term period will see a return to summerlike conditions. Although, Tuesday will see weak to moderately unstable conditions develop by afternoon. Very subtle disturbances in the upper flow may be enough to develop a few general thunderstorms late in the afternoon. SPC has the entire CWA outlined for general storms in its Day 3 Convective Outlook. Templer .LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun... Going forecast was in good shape. Increased pops a bit especially for next weekend as models seem to be agreeing on a trough building into the pacific nw and the ridge axis pushing off to our east, a set-up for possibly severe thunderstorms. TFJ previous long term discussion... Blocking pattern with upper low settling over eastern Canada will dominate through this week. To the west, another low will drop into the Gulf of Alaska. Between the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest resulting in temperatures just a little above normal. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce intermittent thunderstorms through next weekend. Ebert && .AVIATION... VFR conditions. Showers and a thunderstorm this afternoon over southern sask and NE MT will diminish this evening along with the nw breeze. Residual vfr clouds will drift across the northern sites tonight and east and into north dakota monday. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 224 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Tue... Remnants of the departed trough/storm system extend back into Saskatchewan and Northeast Montana this evening. A short-wave that is a piece of the trough drops through the local area producing low clouds and isolated showers and thunder. Low clouds, mainly over out northeast corner, will last through monday morning. the boundary between the cooler air of Canada and the hot high pressure dome over the desert Southwest will remain to the south of Nemont. This should limit Monday`s highs close to seasonal norms. Monday and Tuesday: the Western ridge axis will peak over the Northern Rockies, maintaining a northwest flow over the rest of Montana. This pattern will keep the area mostly dry for the short term period. With the ridge in place, the hot air-mass will push north into Southern Montana. Highs on Tuesday will push higher than normal. With light wind throughout, the short term period will see a return to summerlike conditions. Although, Tuesday will see weak to moderately unstable conditions develop by afternoon. Very subtle disturbances in the upper flow may be enough to develop a few general thunderstorms late in the afternoon. SPC has the entire CWA outlined for general storms in its Day 3 Convective Outlook. Templer .LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun... Going forecast was in good shape. Increased pops a bit especially for next weekend as models seem to be agreeing on a trough building into the pacific nw and the ridge axis pushing off to our east, a set-up for possibly severe thunderstorms. TFJ previous long term discussion... Blocking pattern with upper low settling over eastern Canada will dominate through this week. To the west, another low will drop into the Gulf of Alaska. Between the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest resulting in temperatures just a little above normal. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce intermittent thunderstorms through next weekend. Ebert && .AVIATION... VFR conditions. Showers and a thunderstorm this afternoon over southern sask and NE MT will diminish this evening along with the nw breeze. Residual vfr clouds will drift across the northern sites tonight and east and into north dakota monday. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1209 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Updated Aviation Discussion .UPDATE DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery showing moisture and wave of energy in southern Alberta currently. This disturbance is expected to push into northern MT perhaps as early as late morning...but more likely this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are still possible with this feature...mainly across the northern counties of MT. Cape values of around 500 J/KG this afternoon will be a bit on the low side to support stronger storms...and the best shear also looks to be south of this disturbance. Cannot rule out an isolated stronger storm...however...for the most part garden variety thunderstorms are expected. The remainder of the forecast area will see mostly sunny skies...warmer temperatures...and lighter winds today. Thunderstorms end quickly tonight once the sunsets. Warming trend with only a few mountain thunderstorms are still expected for Monday. Anglin .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday...A westerly flow aloft will persist across the region through early this week as an upper level ridge over the SW US amplifies slightly while mainly weak shortwave energy moving in from the Pacific across the NW US keeps the ridge somewhat suppressed. Weak shortwave embedded within the westerly flow, noted in satellite imagery early this morning over SE BC, will track east along the US/Canadian border today. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible mainly along and north of Hwy 2 this afternoon. Behind this, the ridge temporarily amplifies into the Northern Rockies Monday before the next round of weak shortwave energy, originating over the Eastern Pacific, moves into the region Tuesday. Instability and moisture increase Tuesday afternoon for widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, however flow aloft and shear is relatively weak for limited organization to convection. A gradual warming trend is expected through the next several days with afternoon temperatures today near seasonal averages, warming to above average Monday and Tuesday. Hoenisch Tuesday night through Sunday...The models are in general agreement in the medium range period, keeping an upper level ridge over the western US through at least the end of the upcoming work week. Of note, though, there has been a noticeable trend over the last few days keeping the ridge from getting as amplified as the models suggested a few days ago. And, by next weekend, there is a bit more consistency regarding a possible breakdown of the ridge as the upper level trough sitting off the west coast of North America may begin to edge further inland. Temp-wise, this suggests that temperatures this week may not get quite as warm as originally forecast. It should be noted, however, that the models have struggled some with forecasting the evolution of the trough off the Pac NW coast late in the week which makes the forecast for the July 4th weekend a lower confidence one at this time. Beneath the ridge, it appears that a weak surface convergence zone may setup in the lee of the Rockies from Canada to the Southern Plains. Within this area, increasing instability and moisture combined with the weak convergence should be enough to generate at least isolated showers and storms most days. At this point, it is too early to pinpoint which days may have a better coverage of storms, so kept pops at slight chance / chance each afternoon / evening for now. Very much a summer-time pattern. By the end of the week, a Pacific front may sweep through the area, but this will depend on whether or not the trough off the Pac NW coast can move inland or not. If the trough doesn`t move inland, then isolated afternoon storms will likely be the norm going into the holiday weekend. Despite the better agreement regarding the trough, the lack of consistency still leads to a lower confidence forecast then and opted to keep pops on the lower end over the weekend for now. Regarding the strength of the storms from Wednesday on, there isn`t any significant severe weather signal on any day. But, a few strong storms will be possible just about any day, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area where the best instability/shear may reside. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1800Z. A weak upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern portions of Montana today. Sites from KCTB to KHVR will have the best chances for at least VCTS this afternoon. Any thunderstorm that does develop could produce gusts up to 30 knots...and perhaps brief MVFR conditions. Elsewhere...mainly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with lighter winds than yesterday. Tonight into Monday morning...thunderstorms will diminish shortly after sunset...with VFR and dry conditions expected. Anglin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 75 47 82 53 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 71 46 78 50 / 20 10 10 10 HLN 80 52 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 81 46 86 50 / 0 0 10 10 WEY 73 38 76 43 / 0 0 10 10 DLN 79 46 85 51 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 73 48 80 53 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 73 48 80 53 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1000 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .UPDATE DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery showing moisture and wave of energy in southern Alberta currently. This disturbance is expected to push into northern MT perhaps as early as late morning...but more likely this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are still possible with this feature...mainly across the northern counties of MT. Cape values of around 500 J/KG this afternoon will be a bit on the low side to support stronger storms...and the best shear also looks to be south of this disturbance. Cannot rule out an isolated stronger storm...however...for the most part garden variety thunderstorms are expected. The remainder of the forecast area will see mostly sunny skies...warmer temperatures...and lighter winds today. Thunderstorms end quickly tonight once the sunsets. Warming trend with only a few mountain thunderstorms are still expected for Monday. Anglin .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday...A westerly flow aloft will persist across the region through early this week as an upper level ridge over the SW US amplifies slightly while mainly weak shortwave energy moving in from the Pacific across the NW US keeps the ridge somewhat suppressed. Weak shortwave embedded within the westerly flow, noted in satellite imagery early this morning over SE BC, will track east along the US/Canadian border today. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible mainly along and north of Hwy 2 this afternoon. Behind this, the ridge temporarily amplifies into the Northern Rockies Monday before the next round of weak shortwave energy, originating over the Eastern Pacific, moves into the region Tuesday. Instability and moisture increase Tuesday afternoon for widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, however flow aloft and shear is relatively weak for limited organization to convection. A gradual warming trend is expected through the next several days with afternoon temperatures today near seasonal averages, warming to above average Monday and Tuesday. Hoenisch Tuesday night through Sunday...The models are in general agreement in the medium range period, keeping an upper level ridge over the western US through at least the end of the upcoming work week. Of note, though, there has been a noticeable trend over the last few days keeping the ridge from getting as amplified as the models suggested a few days ago. And, by next weekend, there is a bit more consistency regarding a possible breakdown of the ridge as the upper level trough sitting off the west coast of North America may begin to edge further inland. Temp-wise, this suggests that temperatures this week may not get quite as warm as originally forecast. It should be noted, however, that the models have struggled some with forecasting the evolution of the trough off the Pac NW coast late in the week which makes the forecast for the July 4th weekend a lower confidence one at this time. Beneath the ridge, it appears that a weak surface convergence zone may setup in the lee of the Rockies from Canada to the Southern Plains. Within this area, increasing instability and moisture combined with the weak convergence should be enough to generate at least isolated showers and storms most days. At this point, it is too early to pinpoint which days may have a better coverage of storms, so kept pops at slight chance / chance each afternoon / evening for now. Very much a summer-time pattern. By the end of the week, a Pacific front may sweep through the area, but this will depend on whether or not the trough off the Pac NW coast can move inland or not. If the trough doesn`t move inland, then isolated afternoon storms will likely be the norm going into the holiday weekend. Despite the better agreement regarding the trough, the lack of consistency still leads to a lower confidence forecast then and opted to keep pops on the lower end over the weekend for now. Regarding the strength of the storms from Wednesday on, there isn`t any significant severe weather signal on any day. But, a few strong storms will be possible just about any day, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area where the best instability/shear may reside. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1100Z. A westerly flow aloft will persist over the region through the next 24 hrs with a weak weather disturbance moving east along the US/Canadian border this afternoon. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop near the KCTB/KHVR terminals late this morning through this afternoon in association with the weak weather disturbance while clear to partly cloudy conditions prevail elsewhere. Surface winds will shift to northerly this afternoon but most locations should remain at or below 10kts. Exception will be near any thunderstorm activity that develops near the Canadian border where local wind gusts to 30kts are possible along with brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 75 47 82 53 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 71 46 78 50 / 20 10 10 10 HLN 80 52 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 81 46 86 50 / 0 0 10 10 WEY 73 38 76 43 / 0 0 10 10 DLN 79 46 85 51 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 73 48 80 53 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 73 48 80 53 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 854 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Tue... Satellite imagery this morning reveals the stacked storm system drifting into Ontario Province. The wraparound precipitation and thunderstorms extends as far back as Alberta Province. These showers will likely drift along the northwest flow into much of Northeast Montana today for scattered general thunderstorm activity, mainly this afternoon. SPC has the northern three quarters of our CWA highlighted on their Convective Outlook. This seems reasonable based on weak to moderate CAPE and LI. Main edits were to spread slight chance pops a little wider based on blended model data, and to also adjust winds based on observations. Edits were minor in scope. Templer Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: A large area of hot high pressure sets over the Desert Southwest and lower Intermountain West. A weak ridge rides north out of this airmass through Idaho and Alberta. Mostly zonal flow runs from the Pacific Northwest through the High plains of Montana. A weak remnant trough sets over southern Saskatchewan. Farther west a large synoptic trough sets over the Gulf of Alaska. Today: The remnant trough to the north will drop into the Dakotas and generate enough instability as it clips northeast montana to bring about some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Tonight through Tuesday: Hot high pressure across the Intermountain west will move northward slightly forcing flow over Montana to become more northwest than zonal and increase the curvature to a ridge which should put a limit on showers activity through Mid week. Temperatures are also anticipated to creep up during this time as warmer, dryer air aloft moves in. GAH .LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun... Blocking pattern with upper low settling over eastern Canada will dominate through this week. To the west, another low will drop into the Gulf of Alaska. Between the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest resulting in temperatures just a little above normal. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce intermittent thunderstorms through next weekend. Ebert && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected with the TAF cycle. A few showers/thunderstorm and breezy northwest winds are possible in the afternoon/early evening. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 854 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Tue... Satellite imagery this morning reveals the stacked storm system drifting into Ontario Province. The wraparound precipitation and thunderstorms extends as far back as Alberta Province. These showers will likely drift along the northwest flow into much of Northeast Montana today for scattered general thunderstorm activity, mainly this afternoon. SPC has the northern three quarters of our CWA highlighted on their Convective Outlook. This seems reasonable based on weak to moderate CAPE and LI. Main edits were to spread slight chance pops a little wider based on blended model data, and to also adjust winds based on observations. Edits were minor in scope. Templer Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: A large area of hot high pressure sets over the Desert Southwest and lower Intermountain West. A weak ridge rides north out of this airmass through Idaho and Alberta. Mostly zonal flow runs from the Pacific Northwest through the High plains of Montana. A weak remnant trough sets over southern Saskatchewan. Farther west a large synoptic trough sets over the Gulf of Alaska. Today: The remnant trough to the north will drop into the Dakotas and generate enough instability as it clips northeast montana to bring about some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Tonight through Tuesday: Hot high pressure across the Intermountain west will move northward slightly forcing flow over Montana to become more northwest than zonal and increase the curvature to a ridge which should put a limit on showers activity through Mid week. Temperatures are also anticipated to creep up during this time as warmer, dryer air aloft moves in. GAH .LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun... Blocking pattern with upper low settling over eastern Canada will dominate through this week. To the west, another low will drop into the Gulf of Alaska. Between the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest resulting in temperatures just a little above normal. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce intermittent thunderstorms through next weekend. Ebert && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected with the TAF cycle. A few showers/thunderstorm and breezy northwest winds are possible in the afternoon/early evening. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 850 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .UPDATE... The area will be under the influence of zonal flow aloft today with dry conditions and high temperatures in the upper 70s to to 80s expected. Only update to the forecast was to increase the winds across the east for the morning hours as current observations show the west to northwest winds are increasing a bit earlier than forecast. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track and the previous forecast discussion is below. STP && .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon... The upper low that brought the windy conditions to the forecast area on Saturday has moved well east of the state and is situated just north of the Great Lakes. A zonal flow aloft and dry conditions will prevail across our area today. Winds will be much lighter than was the case on Saturday. However, some gusty northwest winds can be expected from about Rosebud County eastward this afternoon. A weak front will move across the the forecast area this evening allowing winds to become light from the northeast. Mostly sunny skies will continue Monday. However, a weak disturbance over Wyoming will bring a slight thunderstorm chance to the Beartooth/Absaroka and Big Horn Mountains during the afternoon and evening. Winds will become southeasterly by Monday evening and this combined with a low-level jet that develops across western Nebraska and South Dakota will advect some higher dewpoints into Southeast Montana Monday night. In addition, a narrow theta-e axis will move into eastern Wyoming Monday night. Although, at this time, there isn`t much of a trigger mechanism to generate thunderstorms, we have added a slight thunderstorm chance across Powder River and Carter counties for Monday night. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer with lower 80s for most locations. Rising heights Monday will allow temperatures to warm further in the lower to middle 80s. Hooley .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... We did not make any significant changes for the extended period. Looking over ensemble spaghetti charts it appears the overall pattern does not offer up any extreme parameters. The mean ridge axis will likely remain just west of our CWA (western Montana) at day four...with the possibility of it becoming an omega block by day six or seven. This could mean somewhat warmer temperatures for our area late next week along with some influx of moisture from the south. This does not account for the periodic short wave ridge crasher. Progs still support the idea of a decent short wave late Tuesday...and perhaps again Thursday. Due to the influx of southern moisture through the Rockies late in the week (monsoonal in nature), the short waves will have a better opportunity to provide precipitation. The caveat is timing short waves and southern impulses. Thus, we are trending POP`s with a broadbrush as we head toward next weekend with low confidence in 6-12hr time frame skill. That said, CIPS analogs do not indicate much chance of any widespread severe weather for our CWA. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds will prevail again today, but not as strong as yesterday. Look for winds to turn more northerly in the afternoon at sites located on the eastern plains. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 084 055/085 058/090 059/089 058/086 057/088 059/090 0/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 084 045/085 050/090 049/088 047/085 047/086 048/088 0/U 01/U 13/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 086 053/088 056/092 056/089 055/087 055/088 055/092 0/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T MLS 084 055/084 059/089 060/088 059/084 057/085 059/087 0/U 00/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 4BQ 087 055/087 059/092 059/089 058/086 056/086 058/090 0/U 00/U 23/T 42/T 22/T 22/T 22/T BHK 081 051/081 053/086 056/084 055/082 053/081 054/084 0/U 00/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T SHR 085 048/085 051/090 053/088 052/085 052/087 053/090 0/U 01/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 500 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Updated Aviation Discussion .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday...A westerly flow aloft will persist across the region through early this week as an upper level ridge over the SW US amplifies slightly while mainly weak shortwave energy moving in from the Pacific across the NW US keeps the ridge somewhat suppressed. Weak shortwave embedded within the westerly flow, noted in satellite imagery early this morning over SE BC, will track east along the US/Canadian border today. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible mainly along and north of Hwy 2 this afternoon. Behind this, the ridge temporarily amplifies into the Northern Rockies Monday before the next round of weak shortwave energy, originating over the Eastern Pacific, moves into the region Tuesday. Instability and moisture increase Tuesday afternoon for widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, however flow aloft and shear is relatively weak for limited organization to convection. A gradual warming trend is expected through the next several days with afternoon temperatures today near seasonal averages, warming to above average Monday and Tuesday. Hoenisch Tuesday night through Sunday...The models are in general agreement in the medium range period, keeping an upper level ridge over the western US through at least the end of the upcoming work week. Of note, though, there has been a noticeable trend over the last few days keeping the ridge from getting as amplified as the models suggested a few days ago. And, by next weekend, there is a bit more consistency regarding a possible breakdown of the ridge as the upper level trough sitting off the west coast of North America may begin to edge further inland. Temp-wise, this suggests that temperatures this week may not get quite as warm as originally forecast. It should be noted, however, that the models have struggled some with forecasting the evolution of the trough off the Pac NW coast late in the week which makes the forecast for the July 4th weekend a lower confidence one at this time. Beneath the ridge, it appears that a weak surface convergence zone may setup in the lee of the Rockies from Canada to the Southern Plains. Within this area, increasing instability and moisture combined with the weak convergence should be enough to generate at least isolated showers and storms most days. At this point, it is too early to pinpoint which days may have a better coverage of storms, so kept pops at slight chance / chance each afternoon / evening for now. Very much a summer-time pattern. By the end of the week, a Pacific front may sweep through the area, but this will depend on whether or not the trough off the Pac NW coast can move inland or not. If the trough doesn`t move inland, then isolated afternoon storms will likely be the norm going into the holiday weekend. Despite the better agreement regarding the trough, the lack of consistency still leads to a lower confidence forecast then and opted to keep pops on the lower end over the weekend for now. Regarding the strength of the storms from Wednesday on, there isn`t any significant severe weather signal on any day. But, a few strong storms will be possible just about any day, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area where the best instability/shear may reside. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1100Z. A westerly flow aloft will persist over the region through the next 24 hrs with a weak weather disturbance moving east along the US/Canadian border this afternoon. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop near the KCTB/KHVR terminals late this morning through this afternoon in association with the weak weather disturbance while clear to partly cloudy conditions prevail elsewhere. Surface winds will shift to northerly this afternoon but most locations should remain at or below 10kts. Exception will be near any thunderstorm activity that develops near the Canadian border where local wind gusts to 30kts are possible along with brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 75 47 82 53 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 71 46 78 50 / 20 10 10 10 HLN 80 52 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 81 46 86 50 / 0 0 10 10 WEY 73 38 76 43 / 0 0 10 10 DLN 79 46 85 51 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 73 48 80 53 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 73 48 80 53 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 319 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016 .DISCUSSION...High pressure is building into the Pacific Northwest today so temperatures will be warmer and above average. There will be low chances for showers in northwest Montana mainly near the Canadian border and into Glacier National Park, otherwise, the rest of north central Idaho and western Montana will be dry with less wind than previous days. Warm temperatures of around 10 degrees above average can be expected each day this week due to high pressure planned to build over north central Idaho and western Montana. The main high pressure ridge will be just east of the region which will allow for weak impulses and shortwave to pass through north central Idaho and western Montana. The passing disturbances will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday will be the first day with shower chances and a few of these may pass during the morning. Each afternoon this week appears to have a chance for showers and thunderstorms with most of these to be near the Continental Divide. The warm pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms will extend into the weekend. && .AVIATION...Skies have cleared region wide, so parts of northwest Montana that recently had rain do have a chance for patchy fog. A weak shortwave will pass through northwest Montana that will mainly produce some cloud cover but a few showers are also possible. The rest of the region will have warm temperatures and dry conditions with mostly clear skies. Winds today are forecast to be lighter than the previous few days. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 317 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday...A westerly flow aloft will persist across the region through early this week as an upper level ridge over the SW US amplifies slightly while mainly weak shortwave energy moving in from the Pacific across the NW US keeps the ridge somewhat suppressed. Weak shortwave embedded within the westerly flow, noted in satellite imagery early this morning over SE BC, will track east along the US/Canadian border today. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible mainly along and north of Hwy 2 this afternoon. Behind this, the ridge temporarily amplifies into the Northern Rockies Monday before the next round of weak shortwave energy, originating over the Eastern Pacific, moves into the region Tuesday. Instability and moisture increase Tuesday afternoon for widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, however flow aloft and shear is relatively weak for limited organization to convection. A gradual warming trend is expected through the next several days with afternoon temperatures today near seasonal averages, warming to above average Monday and Tuesday. Hoenisch Tuesday night through Sunday...The models are in general agreement in the medium range period, keeping an upper level ridge over the western US through at least the end of the upcoming work week. Of note, though, there has been a noticeable trend over the last few days keeping the ridge from getting as amplified as the models suggested a few days ago. And, by next weekend, there is a bit more consistency regarding a possible breakdown of the ridge as the upper level trough sitting off the west coast of North America may begin to edge further inland. Temp-wise, this suggests that temperatures this week may not get quite as warm as originally forecast. It should be noted, however, that the models have struggled some with forecasting the evolution of the trough off the Pac NW coast late in the week which makes the forecast for the July 4th weekend a lower confidence one at this time. Beneath the ridge, it appears that a weak surface convergence zone may setup in the lee of the Rockies from Canada to the Southern Plains. Within this area, increasing instability and moisture combined with the weak convergence should be enough to generate at least isolated showers and storms most days. At this point, it is too early to pinpoint which days may have a better coverage of storms, so kept pops at slight chance / chance each afternoon / evening for now. Very much a summer-time pattern. By the end of the week, a Pacific front may sweep through the area, but this will depend on whether or not the trough off the Pac NW coast can move inland or not. If the trough doesn`t move inland, then isolated afternoon storms will likely be the norm going into the holiday weekend. Despite the better agreement regarding the trough, the lack of consistency still leads to a lower confidence forecast then and opted to keep pops on the lower end over the weekend for now. Regarding the strength of the storms from Wednesday on, there isn`t any significant severe weather signal on any day. But, a few strong storms will be possible just about any day, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area where the best instability/shear may reside. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0535Z. Clouds will continue to decrease tonight for most TAF sites with generally light winds expected. On Sunday afternoon, a weak cold front will drop south out of Canada, reaching KGTF/KLWT by around 00z/MON. A NW/N wind shift can be expected as the front passes through. In addition, a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area may have just enough lift with it to produce isolated SHRA/TSRA across far northern sections of central Montana Sunday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KHVR. If confidence increases regarding the shower activity, then prevailing and/or TEMPO groups for TSRA may be needed in later forecasts. Any SHRA/TSRA that develops could have erratic/gusty winds with it and perhaps a brief period of reduced VIS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 06z/MON. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 75 47 82 53 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 71 46 78 50 / 20 10 10 10 HLN 80 52 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 81 46 86 50 / 0 0 10 10 WEY 73 38 76 43 / 0 0 10 10 DLN 79 46 85 51 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 73 48 80 53 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 73 48 80 53 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 305 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Tue... Synoptic Setup: A large area of hot high pressure sets over the Desert Southwest and lower Intermountain West. A weak ridge rides north out of this airmass through Idaho and Alberta. Mostly zonal flow runs from the Pacific Northwest through the High plains of Montana. A weak remnant trough sets over southern Saskatchewan. Farther west a large synoptic trough sets over the Gulf of Alaska. Today: The remnant trough to the north will drop into the Dakotas and generate enough instability as it clips northeast montana to bring about some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Tonight through Tuesday: Hot high pressure across the Intermountain west will move northward slightly forcing flow over Montana to become more northwest than zonal and increase the curvature to a ridge which should put a limit on showers activitythrough Mid week. Temperatures are also anticipated to creep up during this time as warmer, dryer air aloft moves in. GAH .LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun... Blocking pattern with upper low settling over eastern Canada will dominate through this week. To the west, another low will drop into the Gulf of Alaska. Between the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest resulting in temperatures just a little above normal. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce intermittent thunderstorms through next weekend. Ebert && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected with the TAF cycle. A few showers and breezy northwest winds are possible in the afternoon. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 300 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon... The upper low that brought the windy conditions to the forecast area on Saturday has moved well east of the state and is situated just north of the Great Lakes. A zonal flow aloft and dry conditions will prevail across our area today. Winds will be much lighter than was the case on Saturday. However, some gusty northwest winds can be expected from about Rosebud County eastward this afternoon. A weak front will move across the forecast area this evening allowing winds to become light from the northeast. Mostly sunny skies will continue Monday. However, a weak disturbance over Wyoming will bring a slight thunderstorm chance to the Beartooth/Absaroka and Big Horn Mountains during the afternoon and evening. Winds will become southeasterly by Monday evening and this combined with a low-level jet that develops across western Nebraska and South Dakota will advect some higher dewpoints into Southeast Montana Monday night. In addition, a narrow theta-e axis will move into eastern Wyoming Monday night. Although, at this time, there isn`t much of a trigger mechanism to generate thunderstorms, we have added a slight thunderstorm chance across Powder River and Carter counties for Monday night. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer with lower 80s for most locations. Rising heights Monday will allow temperatures to warm further in the lower to middle 80s. Hooley .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... We did not make any significant changes for the extended period. Looking over ensemble spaghetti charts it appears the overall pattern does not offer up any extreme parameters. The mean ridge axis will likely remain just west of our CWA (western Montana) at day four...with the possibility of it becoming an omega block by day six or seven. This could mean somewhat warmer temperatures for our area late next week along with some influx of moisture from the south. This does not account for the periodic short wave ridge crasher. Progs still support the idea of a decent short wave late Tuesday...and perhaps again Thursday. Due to the influx of southern moisture through the Rockies late in the week (monsoonal in nature), the short waves will have a better opportunity to provide precipitation. The caveat is timing short waves and southern impulses. Thus, we are trending POP`s with a broadbrush as we head toward next weekend with low confidence in 6-12hr time frame skill. That said, CIPS analogs do not indicate much chance of any widespread severe weather for our CWA. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds will prevail again today, but not as strong as yesterday. Look for winds to turn more northerly in the afternoon at sites located on the eastern plains. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 084 055/085 058/090 059/089 058/086 057/088 059/090 0/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 084 045/085 050/090 049/088 047/085 047/086 048/088 0/U 01/U 13/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 086 053/088 056/092 056/089 055/087 055/088 055/092 0/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T MLS 084 055/084 059/089 060/088 059/084 057/085 059/087 0/U 00/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 4BQ 087 055/087 059/092 059/089 058/086 056/086 058/090 0/U 00/U 23/T 42/T 22/T 22/T 22/T BHK 081 051/081 053/086 056/084 055/082 053/081 054/084 0/U 00/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T SHR 085 048/085 051/090 053/088 052/085 052/087 053/090 0/U 01/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Aviation Section Updated... .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Clear skies over much of the forecast area along with light winds will allow for cool overnight temps. Have lowered most temps a bit and freshened POPs. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0535Z. Clouds will continue to decrease tonight for most TAF sites with generally light winds expected. On Sunday afternoon, a weak cold front will drop south out of Canada, reaching KGTF/KLWT by around 00z/MON. A NW/N wind shift can be expected as the front passes through. In addition, a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area may have just enough lift with it to produce isolated SHRA/TSRA across far northern sections of central Montana Sunday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KHVR. If confidence increases regarding the shower activity, then prevailing and/or TEMPO groups for TSRA may be needed in later forecasts. Any SHRA/TSRA that develops could have erratic/gusty winds with it and perhaps a brief period of reduced VIS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 06z/MON. Martin && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 44 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 46 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 47 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 39 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 34 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 40 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 10 20 10 10 LWT 42 76 49 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 ...Aviation Section Updated... .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Clear skies over much of the forecast area along with light winds will allow for cool overnight temps. Have lowered most temps a bit and freshened POPs. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0535Z. Clouds will continue to decrease tonight for most TAF sites with generally light winds expected. On Sunday afternoon, a weak cold front will drop south out of Canada, reaching KGTF/KLWT by around 00z/MON. A NW/N wind shift can be expected as the front passes through. In addition, a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area may have just enough lift with it to produce isolated SHRA/TSRA across far northern sections of central Montana Sunday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KHVR. If confidence increases regarding the shower activity, then prevailing and/or TEMPO groups for TSRA may be needed in later forecasts. Any SHRA/TSRA that develops could have erratic/gusty winds with it and perhaps a brief period of reduced VIS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 06z/MON. Martin && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 44 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 46 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 47 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 39 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 34 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 40 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 10 20 10 10 LWT 42 76 49 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 900 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Clear skies over much of the forecast area along with light winds will allow for cool overnight temps. Have lowered most temps a bit and freshened POPs. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 2320Z. High pressure is building over Central and Southwest Montana and the airmass will generally remain dry through Sunday. Gusty west winds will diminish this evening and most locations will see light winds with only afternoon gustiness through Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 44 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 46 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 47 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 39 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 34 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 40 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 10 20 10 10 LWT 42 76 49 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 826 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon... Evening update: Changes to the forecast were focused on showers across the area quickly dying off. While an area of greater instability exists farther upstream in the northwest flow over the Canadian Provinces, these showers are tied to the afternoon instability and should die out before they arrive into the CWA overnight. GAH Previous short term discussion: The energetic upper low that brought severe thunderstorms Friday and strong northwest winds with scattered showers today to Northeast Montana moves farther east into Manitoba this evening. This movement will begin to diminish its affects tonight on the local area. Wind will diminish enough to expire the wind advisory over Fort peck Lake this evening. Showers should taper off too. Sunday: While ridging begins to build up over the West, the back side of the departing trough will rotate wrap around scattered rain showers over the mainly northern areas. Northwest winds will continue on the brisk side, continuing the cooler than normal feel. Except for areas near the Idaho and Wyoming borders, the hot desert air will be held at bay mainly south of Montana. Monday: The western ridge continues to build up and amplify, nudging the ridge axis over the Divide. Temperatures will return to near normal and winds will become light, for a return to summery conditions. Templer .LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat... Lowered pops slightly early in the period mainly for late Tuesday as much of the shower/tstorm activity looks to be well to our southeast. Rest of forecast looked good. TFJ Previous Long Term Discussion: Upper low currently moving across Montana will reach eastern Canada by the beginning of the extended period on Monday night. To the west, another low has settled over the Gulf of Alaska. With little movement expected of the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies over the next week. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce thunderstorms on most days next week. Ebert && .AVIATION... Showers and gusty winds have dissipated across northeast Montana. Expect vfr conditions mostly clear skies tonight. Sunday will feature NW winds increasing to 15-20 kts by the afternoon with some cumulus clouds. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 805 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... No update to short term forecast this evening. Gusty winds are tapering off...and will continue to do so through the evening. AAG && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, rh values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate rh recoveries can be expected tonight. A building ridge over the Northern Rockies will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds continue...but are tapering off...and will continue to do so this evening. Lighter winds can be expected overnight and Sunday. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 805 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... No update to short term forecast this evening. Gusty winds are tapering off...and will continue to do so through the evening. AAG && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, rh values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate rh recoveries can be expected tonight. A building ridge over the Northern Rockies will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds continue...but are tapering off...and will continue to do so this evening. Lighter winds can be expected overnight and Sunday. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 805 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... No update to short term forecast this evening. Gusty winds are tapering off...and will continue to do so through the evening. AAG && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, rh values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate rh recoveries can be expected tonight. A building ridge over the Northern Rockies will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds continue...but are tapering off...and will continue to do so this evening. Lighter winds can be expected overnight and Sunday. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 805 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... No update to short term forecast this evening. Gusty winds are tapering off...and will continue to do so through the evening. AAG && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, rh values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate rh recoveries can be expected tonight. A building ridge over the Northern Rockies will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. Gusty west to northwest winds continue...but are tapering off...and will continue to do so this evening. Lighter winds can be expected overnight and Sunday. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 520 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 2320Z. High pressure is building over Central and Southwest Montana and the airmass will generally remain dry through Sunday. Gusty west winds will diminish this evening and most locations will see light winds with only afternoon gustiness through Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 47 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 48 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 48 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 42 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 35 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 44 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 46 76 49 80 / 10 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient across the region, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with some local gusts up to 50 mph have been observed across the area today. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, gradually decreasing from west to east into the overnight. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, afternoon RH values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. Moderate RH recoveries can be expected tonight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. Dry weather and warming temperatures can be expected on Sunday. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with noticeably lighter winds than Saturday. STP For Monday, an upper ridge builds back again. Low level flow turns back to the east and brings back slightly higher dewpoints. Cape will be limited however, as it will take a little while to return deeper moisture with precipitable water amounts staying generally less than .75 inches. Convection chances will be minimal due to low cape and a cap developing with warming 700mb temperatures. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Precipitable water values rise to around an inch over southeast Montana on Tuesday as low level southeast flow returns deeper moisture. Shortwave energy will ride into the building ridge but the latest model trends have been to deflect the strongest energy to the north. A 700mb trough works through the area and this should be enough, along with increasing theta e values, to generate scattered thunderstorms. MUcape values approach 2000j/kg over the far east, so could be a few strong storms. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 850mb readings around 30c. Wednesday through Saturday will contain a very similar pattern, persistent southwest flow with several shortwaves riding through generating lift. The best day for convection may be Saturday with high pwat values, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening in this pattern. High temperatures will be warm with maxes in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees each day. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period. West to northwest winds of 20 to 30 kts with gusts up to 45 kts have been found north of KSHR today. Winds will gradually decrease from west to east this evening and overnight. Lighter winds can be expected for Sunday. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/084 055/086 057/090 058/087 059/088 059/089 060/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T LVM 041/083 046/085 049/089 049/086 049/087 050/087 050/088 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T HDN 050/086 053/088 056/092 057/088 056/090 057/090 058/091 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 22/T MLS 053/084 056/084 059/089 059/086 060/087 060/087 061/090 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 053/087 055/087 059/091 058/088 059/089 060/089 060/091 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T 22/T BHK 052/082 052/082 055/085 056/084 056/084 056/084 057/085 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/B 12/T 22/T SHR 042/084 048/086 053/089 053/085 054/086 054/088 055/090 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 258 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday...Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this afternoon. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours...mainly across far north and northeastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...the strong pressure gradient from the clipper to our east the the high pressure building to our west is beginning to relax slightly. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to begin diminishing late this afternoon...through this evening. These strong winds crossing the mountains are also showing a trapped wave type signature on the vis satellite...and may provide a little bit of turbulence to those with aviation plans. Clearing skies with diminishing winds are then expected for tonight. Similar forecast sets up for the remaining days of the short term forecast. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. Models are starting to agree on that a weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a slight chance to chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas...otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon...and perhaps an isolated mountain thunderstorm also possible Monday afternoon. Anglin/Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1800Z. Upper level low/trough will continue to slide east across the US/Canadian border this afternoon. Low to mid level clouds will continue to be a result...along with with a few isolated showers...across north central terminals. VFR conditions mostly expected this afternoon...however...brief MVFR cloud levels may be found. Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies will be found this afternoon...with breezy conditions. Gusts up to 30 Knots are possible. Current vis satellite indicating mountain wave activity likely occurring...perhaps brings some areas of turbulence. After 00z Sunday...winds and clouds will begin to diminish...and VFR conditions are expected with some few to sct mid to high level clouds by Sunday morning. Anglin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 47 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 48 72 47 78 / 10 20 10 10 HLN 48 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 42 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 35 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 44 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 49 76 49 80 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 46 76 49 80 / 10 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 240 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016 .DISCUSSION...The weather across much of the Northern Rockies has improved from what we saw yesterday, as the low pressure that brought rain and wind to the region continues to push further eastward. Locations across northwestern Montana should continue to see mostly cloud conditions this afternoon, that will keep afternoon highs noticeable cooler compared to areas around Missoula and points south through central Idaho. Afternoon winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and evening, though not expected to be as strong as yesterday. Glacier National Park may see off and on showers later today, that will keep temperatures below normal for this time of the year. Another weak shortwave of energy will introduce more moisture tomorrow, with Glacier National Park seeing another round of afternoon showers. Elsewhere across the region, temperatures will rise a few degrees from today. A ridge of high pressure will begin to amplify over the Northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday, that will allow for afternoon highs to rise to above normal for this time of year. Some valleys of western Montana could come close to breaking 90F degrees, with north-central Idaho climbing into the mid to upper 90`s. Enough moisture and instability will remain over the region, allowing for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though what does develop may stay more anchored to the terrain. For later next week into the holiday weekend, a typical summer weather pattern appears to continue. Afternoon temperatures should remain generally above normal in the upper 80s to mid 90s with a threat of late day thunder. /ss && .AVIATION...Mostly cloudy, to overcast skies, is expected to remain over Northwestern Montana and the region around KGPI through the rest of the day. Light rain showers will also redevelop over Glacier National Park, that will obscure mountain ridges at times along the Continental Divide. Elsewhere across western Montana and central Idaho, partly cloudy skies and afternoon gusts up to 20kts can be expected, including KBTM and KMSO. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 240 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016 .DISCUSSION...The weather across much of the Northern Rockies has improved from what we saw yesterday, as the low pressure that brought rain and wind to the region continues to push further eastward. Locations across northwestern Montana should continue to see mostly cloud conditions this afternoon, that will keep afternoon highs noticeable cooler compared to areas around Missoula and points south through central Idaho. Afternoon winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and evening, though not expected to be as strong as yesterday. Glacier National Park may see off and on showers later today, that will keep temperatures below normal for this time of the year. Another weak shortwave of energy will introduce more moisture tomorrow, with Glacier National Park seeing another round of afternoon showers. Elsewhere across the region, temperatures will rise a few degrees from today. A ridge of high pressure will begin to amplify over the Northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday, that will allow for afternoon highs to rise to above normal for this time of year. Some valleys of western Montana could come close to breaking 90F degrees, with north-central Idaho climbing into the mid to upper 90`s. Enough moisture and instability will remain over the region, allowing for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though what does develop may stay more anchored to the terrain. For later next week into the holiday weekend, a typical summer weather pattern appears to continue. Afternoon temperatures should remain generally above normal in the upper 80s to mid 90s with a threat of late day thunder. /ss && .AVIATION...Mostly cloudy, to overcast skies, is expected to remain over Northwestern Montana and the region around KGPI through the rest of the day. Light rain showers will also redevelop over Glacier National Park, that will obscure mountain ridges at times along the Continental Divide. Elsewhere across western Montana and central Idaho, partly cloudy skies and afternoon gusts up to 20kts can be expected, including KBTM and KMSO. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 221 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon... The energetic upper low that brought severe thunderstorms Friday and strong northwest winds with scattered showers today to Northeast Montana moves farther east into Manitoba this evening. This movement will begin to diminish its affects tonight on the local area. Wind will diminish enough to expire the wind advisory over Fort peck Lake this evening. Showers should taper off too. Sunday: While ridging begins to build up over the West, the back side of the departing trough will rotate wraparound scattered rain showers over the mainly northern areas. Northwest winds will continue on the brisk side, continuing the cooler than normal feel. Except for areas near the Idaho and Wyoming borders, the hot desert air will be held at bay mainly south of Montana. Monday: The western ridge continues to build up and amplify, nudging the ridge axis over the Divide. Temperatures will return to near normal and winds will become light, for a return to summery conditions. Templer .LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat... Lowered pops slightly early in the period mainly for late Tuesday as much of the shower/tstorm activity looks to be well to our southeast. Rest of forecast looked good. TFJ Previous Discussion... Upper low currently moving across Montana will reach eastern Canada by the beginning of the extended period on Monday night. To the west, another low has settled over the Gulf of Alaska. With little movement expected of the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies over the next week. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce thunderstorms on most days next week. Ebert && .AVIATION... An upper low is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms that are staying just northeast of the TAF sites this afternoon will dissipate by sunset. Gusty nw winds and clouds will also dissipate this evening. Sunday will feature NW winds increasing to 15-20 kts by the afternoon with some cumulus clouds. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1145 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .UPDATE DISCUSSION... Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this morning. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon...mainly across far north and eastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...strong downsloping winds will bring partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions today. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to linger through this afternoon...then begin a diminishing trend after 6 PM this evening and through tonight. Warmer and less breezy conditions are still expected for Sunday...with only an isolated thunderstorm possible across far northern portions. Anglin .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1800Z. Upper level low/trough will continue to slide east across the US/Canadian border this afternoon. Low to mid level clouds will continue to be a result...along with with a few isolated showers...across north central terminals. VFR conditions mostly expected this afternoon...however...brief MVFR cloud levels may be found. Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies will be found this afternoon...with breezy conditions. Gusts up to 30 Knots are possible. Current vis satellite indicating mountain wave activity likely occurring...perhaps brings some areas of turbulence. After 00z Sunday...winds and clouds will begin to diminish...and VFR conditions are expected with some few to sct mid to high level clouds by Sunday morning. Anglin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1145 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .UPDATE DISCUSSION... Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this morning. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon...mainly across far north and eastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...strong downsloping winds will bring partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions today. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to linger through this afternoon...then begin a diminishing trend after 6 PM this evening and through tonight. Warmer and less breezy conditions are still expected for Sunday...with only an isolated thunderstorm possible across far northern portions. Anglin .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1800Z. Upper level low/trough will continue to slide east across the US/Canadian border this afternoon. Low to mid level clouds will continue to be a result...along with with a few isolated showers...across north central terminals. VFR conditions mostly expected this afternoon...however...brief MVFR cloud levels may be found. Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies will be found this afternoon...with breezy conditions. Gusts up to 30 Knots are possible. Current vis satellite indicating mountain wave activity likely occurring...perhaps brings some areas of turbulence. After 00z Sunday...winds and clouds will begin to diminish...and VFR conditions are expected with some few to sct mid to high level clouds by Sunday morning. Anglin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1003 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE DISCUSSION... Clipper system continues to push across northern MT this morning. A few showers...along with an isolated thunderstorm...will continue to be possible through this afternoon...mainly across far north and eastern portions of the CWA. Elsewhere...strong downsloping winds will bring partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions today. Breezy winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected to linger through this afternoon...then begin a diminishing trend after 6 PM this evening and through tonight. Warmer and less breezy conditions are still expected for Sunday...with only an isolated thunderstorm possible across far northern portions. .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1200Z. Upper level low/trough moving east along the US/Canadian border today will maintain a NW flow aloft across MT. Showers will primarily affect N-central MT terminals this morning with a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm affecting the KHVR terminal this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with some brief/localized MVFR conditions possible near showers this morning. Mtn top obscuration is also expected across N-central MT Mtns this morning with cloud-bases near 7000 ft MSL. Gusty west winds will begin to diminish this afternoon and further subside tonight as high pressure and drier conditions build in from the West. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 941 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .UPDATE... Upper low over northern Montana is slowly shifting off to the east this morning, with a surface low over the eastern Dakotas. This has caused the pressure gradient to tighten across the area. As a result, west to northwest winds have increased across western and central areas this morning, and winds will continue to increase across eastern areas through the day. Generally, west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph can be expected, with gusts to around 45 mph possible, especially north and east of Billings this afternoon. While temperatures will be much cooler today with highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees, afternoon relative humidity values will continue to be low, roughly in the middle teens to upper 20s. Have updated the fire weather forecast to include a headline mentioning the low rh continuing. Also adjusted winds and sky cover to current trends. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track and the previous forecast discussion and an updated aviation discussion are below. STP && .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun... A quiet weekend is in store across the forecast outside of some gusty winds today. The upper low that brought some thunderstorm activity across the area Saturday evening is slowly shifting east across the northeast portions of the state and into North Dakota and southern Canada. This low combined with a surface low over the dakotas will result in a tight north/south pressure gradient across the forecast area today, as well as some wrap around clouds. Overall, a partly to mostly sunny day can be expected along with dry conditions. However, gusty west to northwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts around 40 mph will be likely by this afternoon especially for areas north and east of Billings. High temperatures today will be much cooler than the past couple of days with readings in the 70s to around 80 degrees which is at or slightly below normal for this time of year. As for Sunday, skies will be mostly sunny. Although it will be breezy at times, winds will not be nearly as gusty as today. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer with most areas in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Hooley .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... Ridge of high pressure over the Rockies will keep our region generally dry with above normal temperatures for much of the extended period. Proggs indicate periodic short waves rounding the ridge will give us a chance of convection. Best chance of widespread convection points to Tuesday afternoon and evening...and again late Thursday. EC and GFS then diverge on position of ridge axis for next weekend. So confidence below average for and will go with climo POP`s for that time frame. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the area today. Winds will continue to increase from west to east this morning with west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 40 kts expected north of KSHR today. Winds will begin to decrease across western areas this afternoon, with winds decreasing across the entire area this evening and overnight. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 080 052/084 055/087 058/090 057/087 058/088 057/088 0/N 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T LVM 075 041/083 046/085 049/089 048/085 047/087 048/087 0/N 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T HDN 081 050/085 053/088 055/090 054/087 054/088 055/089 0/N 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T MLS 075 055/083 055/084 059/089 059/084 058/087 058/085 0/N 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 4BQ 080 053/086 055/088 059/093 058/087 057/089 058/089 0/N 00/U 01/U 24/T 43/T 12/T 22/T BHK 074 052/081 051/082 054/085 055/082 054/083 054/083 0/N 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T SHR 077 045/083 048/087 052/090 053/085 051/087 053/088 0/U 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 915 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Mon... Upper low is clearly evident in the satellite and radar imagery this morning, and is spinning east along the international border. Bands of rain wrap around the core. In Saskatchewan, on the northern side of the low, thunderstorms are frequent. On the south side, rain is spreading east across Phillips and Valley Counties. Cool winds from the west are brisk and gusty and not at all summerlike. Highs today are expected to run 5F to 10F below normal. Winds may increase in the afternoon to around 25g40kt. Main grid edits were to spread pops over a wider area and adjust wind higher and temperatures lower. The edits were based on observations and none were large. Templer Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: As of this morning a large closed low has moved across the international boarder and northern High Plains. This has repressed the hot high pressure back to over the Desert Southwest and Lower Intermountain West and left an area of cool zonal flow over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies in its wake. To the northwest a weak ridge sets over Alberta with a synoptic trough over the Gulf of Alaska. Today through Sunday night: Wrap around precipitation is anticipated to move around the back side of the exiting low and clip the northern most zones with rain showers while bringing cooler temperatures to the whole CWA. Rain will end overnight with cool temperatures expected to remain in place through Sunday night. Monday: with the trough having moved off east the hot high pressure to the Southwest will begin to build again over the Intermountain west and into Montana. this will turn zonal flow to the northwest and bring surface temperatures back into the 80s. GAH .LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat... Upper low currently moving across Montana will reach eastern Canada by the beginning of the extended period on Monday night. To the west, another low has settled over the Gulf of Alaska. With little movement expected of the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies over the next week. Hot air in the desert southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce thunderstorms on most days next week. Ebert && .AVIATION... An upper low is bringing showers to the area this morning, expect brief mvfr conditions under the heaviest showers. Expect these conditions to stay just north of the taf sites for most of the afternoon. Winds: Strong west/northwest with gusts to 40 kts in places this afternoon. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 515 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1200Z. Upper level low/trough moving east along the US/Canadian border today will maintain a NW flow aloft across MT. Showers will primarily affect N-central MT terminals this morning with a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm affecting the KHVR terminal this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with some brief/localized MVFR conditions possible near showers this morning. Mtn top obscuration is also expected across N-central MT Mtns this morning with cloud-bases near 7000 ft MSL. Gusty west winds will begin to diminish this afternoon and further subside tonight as high pressure and drier conditions build in from the West. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 515 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 1200Z. Upper level low/trough moving east along the US/Canadian border today will maintain a NW flow aloft across MT. Showers will primarily affect N-central MT terminals this morning with a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm affecting the KHVR terminal this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with some brief/localized MVFR conditions possible near showers this morning. Mtn top obscuration is also expected across N-central MT Mtns this morning with cloud-bases near 7000 ft MSL. Gusty west winds will begin to diminish this afternoon and further subside tonight as high pressure and drier conditions build in from the West. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 342 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun... A quiet weekend is in store across the forecast area outside of some gusty winds today. The upper low that brought some thunderstorm activity across the area Saturday evening is slowly shifting east across the northeast portions of the state and into North Dakota and southern Canada. This low combined with a surface low over the dakotas will result in a tight north/south pressure gradient across the forecast area today, as well as some wrap around clouds. Overall, a partly to mostly sunny day can be expected along with dry conditions. However, gusty west to northwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts around 40 mph will be likely by this afternoon especially for areas north and east of Billings. High temperatures today will be much cooler than the past couple of days with readings in the 70s to around 80 degrees which is at or slightly below normal for this time of year. As for Sunday, skies will be mostly sunny. Although it will be breezy at times, winds will not be nearly as gusty as today. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer with most areas in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Hooley .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... Ridge of high pressure over the Rockies will keep our region generally dry with above normal temperatures for much of the extended period. Proggs indicate periodic short waves rounding the ridge will give us a chance of convection. Best chance of widespread convection points to Tuesday afternoon and evening...and again late Thursday. EC and GFS then diverge on position of ridge axis for next weekend. So confidence below average for and will go with climo POP`s for that time frame. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across TAF sites today. We do anticipate brisk NW surface winds with gusts to 25-35 kts will spread across the region between 12-17z this morning. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 080 052/084 055/087 058/090 057/087 058/088 057/088 0/N 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T LVM 075 041/083 046/085 049/089 048/085 047/087 048/087 0/N 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T HDN 081 050/085 053/088 055/090 054/087 054/088 055/089 0/N 00/U 01/U 14/T 42/T 12/T 22/T MLS 075 055/083 055/084 059/089 059/084 058/087 058/085 0/N 00/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 11/U 12/T 4BQ 080 053/086 055/088 059/093 058/087 057/089 058/089 0/N 00/U 01/U 24/T 43/T 12/T 22/T BHK 074 052/081 051/082 054/085 055/082 054/083 054/083 0/N 00/U 00/U 24/T 43/T 11/U 12/T SHR 077 045/083 048/087 052/090 053/085 051/087 053/088 0/U 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 12/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 320 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday...Upper level low with circulation center along the Alberta/MT border early this morning will track east-northeast today. Precipitation wrapping around the upper low will spread east across northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Areas south of a line from roughly Helena to Lewistown will remain dry with the greatest coverage of shower activity occurring along the Rocky Mtn Front early this morning, shifting to NE portions of N- Central MT this afternoon. Snow levels around 7000 ft this morning could result in some minor wet snow accumulations over the higher peaks of the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier Park region. Belt of strong winds aloft just south of the upper low and pressure gradient at the surface between high pressure W of the Rockies and low pressure over Manitoba will produce gusty west winds, particularly across north- central MT this morning, with winds aloft and at the surface diminishing this afternoon and evening as the upper and surface lows move off to the east. The airmass warms and dries Sunday and Monday as ridging builds across the Western US. weak shortwave energy embedded within WNW flow aloft will track along the US/Canadian border Sunday for a small chance of showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm in those areas, otherwise clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated with temperatures warming back to above average levels by Monday afternoon. Hoenisch Monday night through Saturday...The decent agreement seen in the models over the last few runs has changed a bit, with less agreement in the latest 00z runs. This lowers confidence in the extended somewhat, especially late next week. Initially, there is good agreement through about Thursday keeping the upper level ridge over western North America. Beyond Thursday, the GFS/CMC begin to shift the ridge east while bringing a stronger upper level trough into the Pac NW. This solution would bring better moisture into the area and a better chance of precip. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps the ridge in place and, in fact, doesn`t even really show much of a trough off the US West Coast late in the week. This would lead to generally drier conditions continuing. Given the consistency seen in the ECMWF and the fact that WPC forecasts are closer to the ECMWF solution, will lean that way for now. Locally, this still translates to a more typical summer pattern with warm temperatures and a generally lower coverage of showers and storms. Of note, the models continue to hint at the possibility of a shortwave or two moving through the ridge next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking regarding the timing/strength of each s/w, so for the most part leaned towards climo pops in the extended period. The one exception is Tuesday. The models have remained fairly consistent in bringing a s/w through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and will keep pops a bit higher than climo for now on Tuesday. A few strong storms still look to be possible Tuesday, but weaker shear may tend to limit the threat of severe weather. But, something to keep an eye on in future forecasts. For the rest of the week, storms will likely be pulse in nature with a strong storm or two not out of the question. Temperatures next week still look to be above normal for late June/early July, but just how warm it gets will depend on the evolution of the ridge, especially later in the week. Martin && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0549Z. A compact upper level low now moving along the Montana/Canada border will shift east overnight, then exit the state by 00z/SUN. A few SHRA lingering east of KLWT will continue to move away from the area over the next few hours. A second round of showers, which has already begun to develop near KCTB, will slowly progress east through Saturday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KGTF/KHVR/KLWT. The light nature of the showers should keep VIS at VFR, although a heavier shower with MVFR or lower VIS cannot be ruled out, especially vicinity KHVR. In addition, CIGS may drop down near or just below MVFR at KHVR as the SHRA move through. The atmosphere may become unstable enough for a few TSRA to develop across eastern sections of central MT on Saturday, but confidence is too low to include TSRA at any TAF site for now. Best chance would be vicinity KHVR. A tightening pressure gradient at the SFC combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to gusty winds at times at all TAF sites, especially early Saturday morning through late Saturday afternoon. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 45 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 69 45 72 47 / 30 10 20 10 HLN 73 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 74 42 81 46 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 66 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 71 49 76 50 / 70 20 20 10 LWT 70 46 76 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016 .DISCUSSION...Moisture continues to wrap into northwest Montana associated with the exiting low pressure system, so rain and high elevation snow remains this morning. Forecast guidance agree that there will be a decreasing trend in precipitation today with most of it ending by noon. High pressure will begin to move into the region, so temperatures will be warmer today, though breezy winds remain in the forecast. A weak a short wave will pass along the Montana/Canada border on Sunday, so a few showers will be possible in Glacier National Park. Otherwise, the rest of the region will have above normal temperatures under high pressure. The trend from Sunday-onward will be much similar: continued above normal temperatures with mostly sunny skies under persistent high pressure. Temperatures should warm into the upper 80s in valleys Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday...if not longer. While conditions are expected to remain mostly dry across north central Idaho and western Montana during this stretch, there will still be a slight chance for thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. We`ll keep an eye on whether storm development will become an increasing threat in the days to come...but in the meantime, plan for warm temps and mostly sunny, very summer-like conditions next week. && .AVIATION...Lowered cloud cover, rain, high elevation snow, and obscured terrain remain in northwest Montana this morning due to wrap around moisture from the exiting low. Obscured terrain extends into west central Montana and north central Idaho, but high pressure will begin to move in and help decrease cloud cover this morning. Northwest Montana will be the last location to see clearing skies. Westerly winds will again develop this afternoon generally in the 15-25 kt range. Skies will mostly clear region wide during this evening. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning ABOVE 6000 FEET for the West Glacier Region. ID...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 313 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Mon... Synoptic Setup: As of this morning a large closed low has moved across the international boarder and northern High Plains. This has repressed the hot high pressure back to over the Desert Southwest and Lower Intermountain West and left an area of cool zonal flow over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies in its wake. To the northwest a weak ridge sets over Alberta with a synoptic trough over the Gulf of Alaska. Today through Sunday night: Wrap around precipitation is anticipated to move around the back side of the exiting low and clip the northern most zones with rain showers while bringing cooler temperatures to the whole CWA. Rain will end overnight with cool temperatures expected to remain in place through Sunday night. Monday: with the trough having moved off east the hot high pressure to the Southwest will begin to build again over the Intermountain west and into Montana. this will turn zonal flow to the northwest and bring surface temperatures back into the 80s. GAH .LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat... Upper low currently moving across Montana will reach eastern Canada by the beginning of the extended period on Monday night. To the west another low has settled over the Gulf of Alaska. With little movement expected of the two lows, an upper ridge will be building into the northern Rockies over the next week. Hot air in the southwest will be pulled north across the Great Basin as the ridge builds. However northwest flow aloft into the northern Plains will keep the hottest air to the southwest. Moisture and weak disturbances sliding out of Canada will have the potential to produce thunderstorms on most days next week. Ebert && .AVIATION... An upper low lifting from Montana into southern Manitoba today will bring strong west to northwest winds to the region today. While mainly VFR conditions are expected, scattered showers could briefly reduce flight conditions this afternoon. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips... Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 1154 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... The threat for severe weather has ended across Custer and Fallon counties. As a result, we have cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch for these areas. In addition, humidities have risen above critical levels with most areas currently above 40 percent across southeast Montana. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning for fire zones 131, 133, AND 274 has been cancelled. Hooley && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun... Water vapor imagery early this afternoon showed an upper low centered over northern Idaho slowly moving east. The upper low will continue to move into northern Montana this evening, dragging an associated cold front across the area. The aforementioned cold front was already beginning to push into the far west as of this writing, with a line of showers and thunderstorms over northern Park County and Wheatland County. Clear skies and mixing winds had allowed central and eastern areas to warm into the 80s and 90s, while 70s were found across the west. The cold front will sweep across the area late this afternoon and evening, eventually pushing east into the Dakotas by late evening/overnight. Winds will turn out of the west northwest just behind the front with winds gusting up to as high as 40 to 50 mph. Winds will decrease some overnight, but increase out of the northwest again on Saturday. While the best instability looks to remain north and east of the area this afternoon and evening, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected ahead of and along the cold front. Thermodynamics look marginal this afternoon and evening, however decent shear should allow for an isolated severe storm or two develop. The main threat with any severe storm would be strong wind gusts. Convection will gradually shift north and east through the evening and overnight as the upper low slides further east. STP For Saturday, the strong upper low will shift eastward into northwest North Dakota by afternoon. The strongest forcing will drive into North Dakota, but enough vorticity advection wrapping around the low to keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms going through the day. The bigger story will be the wind. 850mb winds of 35kts push across the area and this will provide a unseasonably windy day for late June. Expect winds of 15-30mph with gusts to 40mph. Temperatures will be cooler too with highs held in the upper 70s to lower 80s. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... A flat ridge will build Sunday and Monday. This will allow for warming temperatures. The chance of convection will be very limited with precipitable water amounts at a half inch or less. Easterly winds will return for Monday and allow for low level moisture to increase. Shortwave influx will provide some ascent for increasing instability for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of convection will be Tuesday afternoon and evening. A fairly strong shortwave will crash over the top of the ridge for strengthening ascent. MUcapes increase with low level flow turning to the southeast with values reaching around 2000j/kg over the east. Could have some strong storms east of Billings during that time frame. The ridge builds back in place Wednesday through Friday with shortwaves trying to undercut it and provide forcing for convection. Will be a battle between building heights and weak forcing with shortwave activity. Will keep pops low. Temperatures will be warm with the ridge building, but not hot as the ridge axis looks to set up over western Montana providing northwest flow aloft for most of the forecast area. TWH && .AVIATION... Strong NW surface winds with gusts to 40 kt will gradually diminish from W to E across the area overnight. Thunderstorms over Custer and Fallon Counties will create MVFR/IFR conditions in those areas and will be accompanied by potential wind gusts to 50 kt and hail through 06Z. Otherwise VFR will prevail overnight through Saturday. Winds will increase from the W with gusts to 40 kt across the area on Saturday. Arthur && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051/080 052/085 055/088 057/087 057/085 058/088 059/090 20/N 00/U 02/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 23/T LVM 046/075 043/083 046/085 048/086 048/085 049/088 051/089 30/N 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 23/T HDN 049/081 050/085 053/089 056/088 055/086 056/089 057/092 20/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 42/T 22/T 22/T MLS 054/078 055/083 056/085 060/087 060/084 059/087 061/090 21/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 43/T 21/U 12/T 4BQ 052/080 053/086 055/087 059/089 058/084 058/088 060/091 20/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 43/T 22/T 22/T BHK 053/074 052/081 052/082 055/083 056/081 056/084 057/086 20/N 00/N 02/T 24/T 44/T 21/U 12/T SHR 048/078 047/084 051/087 054/088 053/084 053/087 054/090 20/U 00/U 02/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 1154 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... The threat for severe weather has ended across Custer and Fallon counties. As a result, we have cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch for these areas. In addition, humidities have risen above critical levels with most areas currently above 40 percent across southeast Montana. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning for fire zones 131, 133, AND 274 has been cancelled. Hooley && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun... Water vapor imagery early this afternoon showed an upper low centered over northern Idaho slowly moving east. The upper low will continue to move into northern Montana this evening, dragging an associated cold front across the area. The aforementioned cold front was already beginning to push into the far west as of this writing, with a line of showers and thunderstorms over northern Park County and Wheatland County. Clear skies and mixing winds had allowed central and eastern areas to warm into the 80s and 90s, while 70s were found across the west. The cold front will sweep across the area late this afternoon and evening, eventually pushing east into the Dakotas by late evening/overnight. Winds will turn out of the west northwest just behind the front with winds gusting up to as high as 40 to 50 mph. Winds will decrease some overnight, but increase out of the northwest again on Saturday. While the best instability looks to remain north and east of the area this afternoon and evening, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected ahead of and along the cold front. Thermodynamics look marginal this afternoon and evening, however decent shear should allow for an isolated severe storm or two develop. The main threat with any severe storm would be strong wind gusts. Convection will gradually shift north and east through the evening and overnight as the upper low slides further east. STP For Saturday, the strong upper low will shift eastward into northwest North Dakota by afternoon. The strongest forcing will drive into North Dakota, but enough vorticity advection wrapping around the low to keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms going through the day. The bigger story will be the wind. 850mb winds of 35kts push across the area and this will provide a unseasonably windy day for late June. Expect winds of 15-30mph with gusts to 40mph. Temperatures will be cooler too with highs held in the upper 70s to lower 80s. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... A flat ridge will build Sunday and Monday. This will allow for warming temperatures. The chance of convection will be very limited with precipitable water amounts at a half inch or less. Easterly winds will return for Monday and allow for low level moisture to increase. Shortwave influx will provide some ascent for increasing instability for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of convection will be Tuesday afternoon and evening. A fairly strong shortwave will crash over the top of the ridge for strengthening ascent. MUcapes increase with low level flow turning to the southeast with values reaching around 2000j/kg over the east. Could have some strong storms east of Billings during that time frame. The ridge builds back in place Wednesday through Friday with shortwaves trying to undercut it and provide forcing for convection. Will be a battle between building heights and weak forcing with shortwave activity. Will keep pops low. Temperatures will be warm with the ridge building, but not hot as the ridge axis looks to set up over western Montana providing northwest flow aloft for most of the forecast area. TWH && .AVIATION... Strong NW surface winds with gusts to 40 kt will gradually diminish from W to E across the area overnight. Thunderstorms over Custer and Fallon Counties will create MVFR/IFR conditions in those areas and will be accompanied by potential wind gusts to 50 kt and hail through 06Z. Otherwise VFR will prevail overnight through Saturday. Winds will increase from the W with gusts to 40 kt across the area on Saturday. Arthur && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051/080 052/085 055/088 057/087 057/085 058/088 059/090 20/N 00/U 02/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 23/T LVM 046/075 043/083 046/085 048/086 048/085 049/088 051/089 30/N 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 23/T HDN 049/081 050/085 053/089 056/088 055/086 056/089 057/092 20/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 42/T 22/T 22/T MLS 054/078 055/083 056/085 060/087 060/084 059/087 061/090 21/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 43/T 21/U 12/T 4BQ 052/080 053/086 055/087 059/089 058/084 058/088 060/091 20/N 00/U 02/T 24/T 43/T 22/T 22/T BHK 053/074 052/081 052/082 055/083 056/081 056/084 057/086 20/N 00/N 02/T 24/T 44/T 21/U 12/T SHR 048/078 047/084 051/087 054/088 053/084 053/087 054/090 20/U 00/U 02/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1149 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Aviation Section Updated... .DISCUSSION... Tonight...The cold front is well east of the zones and brisk, west winds have spread through the western zones and into the east. The airmass has dried behind the front and have updated to freshen POPs, WX, and QPF. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0549Z. A compact upper level low now moving along the Montana/Canada border will shift east overnight, then exit the state by 00z/SUN. A few SHRA lingering east of KLWT will continue to move away from the area over the next few hours. A second round of showers, which has already begun to develop near KCTB, will slowly progress east through Saturday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KGTF/KHVR/KLWT. The light nature of the showers should keep VIS at VFR, although a heavier shower with MVFR or lower VIS cannot be ruled out, especially vicinity KHVR. In addition, CIGS may drop down near or just below MVFR at KHVR as the SHRA move through. The atmosphere may become unstable enough for a few TSRA to develop across eastern sections of central MT on Saturday, but confidence is too low to include TSRA at any TAF site for now. Best chance would be vicinity KHVR. A tightening pressure gradient at the SFC combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to gusty winds at times at all TAF sites, especially early Saturday morning through late Saturday afternoon. Martin && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Sunday...Upper trof will continue its eastward trek across northern Montana overnight. Moist south to southwest diffluent flow aloft, and a cold front, have contributed to the development of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Though shear values are high, CAPE values are not very impressive and is one reason storms are not reaching severe criteria. Also, storm motion to the northeast is very fast. Heavy rain and small hail are the main threats from these afternoon storms. The upper trof will be over northeast Montana by early Saturday and the wrap around circulation will bring scattered morning showers to the Hi-Line and to the eastern portion of the county warning area. Precipitation will end Saturday night as upper ridging builds over western Montana. Short wave energy within the northwest flow aloft will bring isolated showers to the Hi-Line again on Sunday afternoon. As the upper trof pushes east tonight, west winds will increase and become strong and gusty by early Saturday morning. Gusts to 50 mph are possible, mainly between midnight and daybreak and will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the northern plains. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages through the weekend. Sunday night through Friday...Models are in generally good agreement in the medium range period keeping an upper level ridge in place across the western US, extending all the way north into western Canada. Given the expected strength of the ridge, the upper level trough over the eastern Pacific is unlikely to make much headway into the Pac NW through next week. Locally, this should translate into a warm and somewhat drier weather pattern next week. The main differences in the models next week is the timing, strength, and amount of moisture with several weak shortwaves forecast to move through the ridge and across parts of Montana. Despite the weak nature of each s/w, they should provide just enough lift for at least isolated to widely scattered storms. At this point, confidence in storms developing is highest late Monday into Tuesday, especially across central Montana, and for this reason, opted to go with slightly higher pops compared to previous forecasts. Forecast soundings across central Montana Tuesday afternoon show modest instability/shear suggesting a few strong to severe storms will be possible then. Strong storms cannot be ruled out later in the week as well, but model differences regarding timing, strength, and location of each s/w leads to lower confidence regarding the strength of storms beyond Tuesday. The ridge building in next week looks to reach its peak in strength mid to late week across the Pac NW. So, after a brief cool down this weekend, temperatures should quickly rebound back above to well above normal later next week. At lower elevations, this means highs likely warming well into the 80s to near 90 degrees once again. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 74 46 77 / 30 20 0 0 CTB 49 70 46 73 / 70 10 10 20 HLN 50 76 49 81 / 20 10 0 0 BZN 42 76 43 81 / 20 0 0 0 WEY 34 65 36 70 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 39 74 42 80 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 49 73 50 76 / 30 60 10 20 LWT 45 73 47 76 / 30 20 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1149 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Aviation Section Updated... .DISCUSSION... Tonight...The cold front is well east of the zones and brisk, west winds have spread through the western zones and into the east. The airmass has dried behind the front and have updated to freshen POPs, WX, and QPF. Zelzer && .AVIATION...UPDATED 0549Z. A compact upper level low now moving along the Montana/Canada border will shift east overnight, then exit the state by 00z/SUN. A few SHRA lingering east of KLWT will continue to move away from the area over the next few hours. A second round of showers, which has already begun to develop near KCTB, will slowly progress east through Saturday afternoon, mainly impacting KCTB/KGTF/KHVR/KLWT. The light nature of the showers should keep VIS at VFR, although a heavier shower with MVFR or lower VIS cannot be ruled out, especially vicinity KHVR. In addition, CIGS may drop down near or just below MVFR at KHVR as the SHRA move through. The atmosphere may become unstable enough for a few TSRA to develop across eastern sections of central MT on Saturday, but confidence is too low to include TSRA at any TAF site for now. Best chance would be vicinity KHVR. A tightening pressure gradient at the SFC combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to gusty winds at times at all TAF sites, especially early Saturday morning through late Saturday afternoon. Martin && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / Tonight through Sunday...Upper trof will continue its eastward trek across northern Montana overnight. Moist south to southwest diffluent flow aloft, and a cold front, have contributed to the development of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Though shear values are high, CAPE values are not very impressive and is one reason storms are not reaching severe criteria. Also, storm motion to the northeast is very fast. Heavy rain and small hail are the main threats from these afternoon storms. The upper trof will be over northeast Montana by early Saturday and the wrap around circulation will bring scattered morning showers to the Hi-Line and to the eastern portion of the county warning area. Precipitation will end Saturday night as upper ridging builds over western Montana. Short wave energy within the northwest flow aloft will bring isolated showers to the Hi-Line again on Sunday afternoon. As the upper trof pushes east tonight, west winds will increase and become strong and gusty by early Saturday morning. Gusts to 50 mph are possible, mainly between midnight and daybreak and will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the northern plains. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages through the weekend. Sunday night through Friday...Models are in generally good agreement in the medium range period keeping an upper level ridge in place across the western US, extending all the way north into western Canada. Given the expected strength of the ridge, the upper level trough over the eastern Pacific is unlikely to make much headway into the Pac NW through next week. Locally, this should translate into a warm and somewhat drier weather pattern next week. The main differences in the models next week is the timing, strength, and amount of moisture with several weak shortwaves forecast to move through the ridge and across parts of Montana. Despite the weak nature of each s/w, they should provide just enough lift for at least isolated to widely scattered storms. At this point, confidence in storms developing is highest late Monday into Tuesday, especially across central Montana, and for this reason, opted to go with slightly higher pops compared to previous forecasts. Forecast soundings across central Montana Tuesday afternoon show modest instability/shear suggesting a few strong to severe storms will be possible then. Strong storms cannot be ruled out later in the week as well, but model differences regarding timing, strength, and location of each s/w leads to lower confidence regarding the strength of storms beyond Tuesday. The ridge building in next week looks to reach its peak in strength mid to late week across the Pac NW. So, after a brief cool down this weekend, temperatures should quickly rebound back above to well above normal later next week. At lower elevations, this means highs likely warming well into the 80s to near 90 degrees once again. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 74 46 77 / 30 20 0 0 CTB 49 70 46 73 / 70 10 10 20 HLN 50 76 49 81 / 20 10 0 0 BZN 42 76 43 81 / 20 0 0 0 WEY 34 65 36 70 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 39 74 42 80 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 49 73 50 76 / 30 60 10 20 LWT 45 73 47 76 / 30 20 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 944 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sun... Update: Severe thunderstorms have cleared northeast Montana, and pushed into North Dakota. Therefore updated to end the watch. Also tweaked pops and winds based off of the latest observations. Should be a cool but breezy night across the area. Gilchrist The initial longwave pattern across CONUS this evening consists of storm system/upper trough rotating and pushing across the Divide, and an upper ridge moving east across the Central Plains. The trough/low center will move across Northeast Montana on Saturday and into Quebec Province on Sunday. So the short-term will see active weather, beginning with thunderstorms tonight, strong winds on Saturday, and showers on Sunday. The trough will bring cooler than normal temperatures for the weekend. Tonight: At 00Z a moderately strong cold front begins to plow through Northeast Montana. It will meet up in the forecast area with a moist and unstable airmass. Thunderstorms and rain showers will likely intensify, becoming severe. Strong winds aloft suggest the potential for damaging winds and large hail. SPC has placed most of the CWA in its Convective Outlook for a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms. Diminishing storms and rain showers may not totally exit the area until around sunrise. Saturday: The closed upper low/storm center will move through the local region, but mainly keeping showers to the north in Canada and near or north of the Hi-Line. The main issue will be the wind strength. Mid-morning westerly winds may reach 25g40kt. Afternoon northwesterly winds may reach 30g50kt. Will go ahead and issue an NPW for Fort Peck Lake from 15Z to 03Z. Saturday night through Sunday: Showers wrapping around behind the storms will create a chance for rain showers, mainly north of the Missouri River. Templer .LONG TERM...Sun night through Fri... not too many changes were made today. subtle disturbances occasionally will move through the upper ridge. upper flow will be weaker so severe thunderstorm chances should be lower. TFJ previous discussion... Synoptic Setup: Long range begins with a large trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern US Plains. A second large trough resides over the northeast Pacific centered around or just south of the Gulf of Alaska. A large airmass of hot high pressure resides over the Desert Southwest and runs as far north as southern Idaho. A slightly cooler ridge juts out of the high pressure through western Montana and through Alberta. Sunday night through Monday: Northeast Montana lies on the stable side of a developing ridge to the west. conditions will warm but remain mostly dry. Monday night through Wednesday: A shortwave will move around the edges of the hot high pressure and through eastern Montana. Tuesday and Tuesday night look to be the prime impact times with showers being scattered. Wednesday onward: Hot air from down south will fill in the ridge into southern Alberta and then slowly move it over Montana. This will increase temperatures and lower chances for showers and thunderstorms slightly until the ridge axis hits. The only other chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during night time when the K-boundary from the desert air passes over the region. GAH && .AVIATION... SYNOPSIS: Upper low system moving in from the Pacific NW will bring unsettled conditions through Saturday. SEVERE WX: Evening severe thunderstorms still look on tap with damaging winds being the main threat. Gusts over 60 kts are possible with some storms. Making sure AIRCRAFT are tied down or in sheltered locations is recommended. WINDS: Winds will turn clockwise to the east ahead of the thunderstorms then punch in from the northwest for a couple hours in the wake of the storms. Expect them to increase saturday with gusts to 40 kts during the afternoon. They will diminish Saturday evening. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow