Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/24/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
206 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Afternoon temperatures will continue to cool through tomorrow in most locations but will remain above normal. Temperatures will warm again beginning Friday and into early next week as high pressure increases across the region. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT) A shallow marine lyr is hugging a lot of the coast this afternoon. A trough of low pressure moving into the Pac NW tonight and tomorrow will help lift that marine lyr at least a few hundred feet tonight which should be enough to push clouds and dense fog into some of the coastal valleys. Similar clearing trend Thursday with again some beaches staying cloudy well into the afternoon. Temperatures tomorrow within a few degrees of today so basically a very similar day. We will start to see increasing northwest flow late Thursday that will bring a return of northwest winds to the Central Coast, southern SB County and the I5 corridor area. Winds likely stronger Friday night as the trough to the north moves inland and surface pressure gradients tighten up. At the same time we`ll start to see the ridge rebuilding from the southeast Friday leading to a warmer air mass. Inland areas will see the biggest jump as there will still be enough onshore flow and some marine lyr clouds to limit the coastal warming. By Friday night and Saturday onshore flow will basically be neutral while northerly gradients will be increasing. All that will combine to warm temps in all areas with some gusty north winds, especially in srn SB County and the I5 corridor. Marine lyr clouds likely just confined to the immediate coastal areas of LA County at best. .LONG TERM...(SUN-WED) Upper ridge will continue to strengthen through the weekend then basically hold steady through Tuesday before loosening it`s grip slightly around mid week. Models today weren`t quite as hot as yesterday but well above normal. A little trickier coastal forecast as pressure gradients trend onshore slightly through mid week. Assuming an onshore flow is present during this period high temps won`t likely reach the levels we saw earlier this week across coast and valley areas, though farther interior locations such as the Antelope Valley and interior SLO could see similarly hot temps early next week. One thing to watch for is the possibility of some energy and moisture coming from the east around the 4 corners high. GFS hasn`t been showing much but the ECMWF has been fairly consistent last few runs showing an easterly wave moving into So Cal Tuesday and Wednesday with some moisture. GFS has some moisture but virtually all of it above 600mb and little or no instability. So for now the forecast remains convection-free but have added some high clouds to the sky coverage Tue/Wed. && .AVIATION...22/1800Z. At 1741Z, the marine layer depth was around 600 feet deep. There was a strong inversion with a top around 4540 feet with a temperature near 26 degrees Celsius. Good confidence in the 18z TAF package. Late morning clearing trends are a bit better than hoped for and most coastal TAF sites will see a fair amount of VFR conditions, although it looks like KOXR will be slow to clear this afternoon. Weaker winds in the coastal waters may have prevented an eddy from forming this morning, preventing any vexing east winds across KLAX. Conditions are not expected to change too much tonight into Thursday morning with another round of IFR to LIFR conditions at most coastal sections, although the marine layer may deepen a few hundred feet by Thursday morning. The valley TAFS are expected to remain clear. KLAX...Good confidence in the 18z forecast. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to return tonight into Thursday morning. There is a 30 percent chance of MVFR conditions instead. KBUR...Good confidence in the 18z forecast. VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. There is less than a 20 percent chance of IFR conditions at the airfield late tonight and early thursday morning. && .MARINE...22/200 PM. Northwest low-level flow will increase through late this week. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Outer Waters from Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island through late tonight, but Small Craft Advisory level winds will likely continue through this weekend. Periodic Small Craft Advisory level winds will likely occur across the nearshore waters north of Point Sal. There is a 30 percent chance of gale force wind gusts between Thursday evening and Saturday morning across the Outer Waters from Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island. The outer waters will likely be dominated by locally-generated steep northwest waves through the period, which will occasionally work their way into the inner waters. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception and into Southern California Bight, the highest likelihood of small craft advisory level winds will occur on Friday afternoon and evening. A long period south swell originating in the Southern Hemisphere will build through Thursday. A High Surf Advisory is likely for Friday and Saturday. && .BEACHES...22/300 AM. A long period south swell originating in the Southern Hemisphere will build through Thursday. Strong rip currents and elevated surf will develop at south-facing beaches through today and linger through early next week. There is a 70 percent chance that a high surf advisory will be needed between Friday and Sunday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday afternoon For zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Fire Weather Watch in effect from Thursday evening through late Friday night For zone 239. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM PDT Saturday For zones 252>254. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 11 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday For zone 259. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday For zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Sweet MARINE...Sweet BEACHES...Sweet SYNOPSIS...KJ weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 202 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the Desert Southwest this week resulting in hot and dry conditions with afternoon and evening breezes. Winds increase Thursday afternoon creating hazardous conditions for lake activities and fire weather concerns. Slightly cooler this weekend before hot temperatures return next week. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure continues to retreat slightly as low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest. Winds have increased early this afternoon and are expected to continue into the evening, with the strongest winds along the Sierra Front. A Red Flag Warning is in effect, see the fire weather section below for more details. Winds aloft increase further Thursday and looks to be the strongest day with widespread wind gusts of 30-40 mph. This will create issues for boaters (as well as fire) so will continue with the lake wind advisories. The winds will diminish in the evening for most locations, but will remain up on the ridges and some mid slopes. Friday the winds aloft back off as the weakening cold front moves through. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Friday. This weekend, the ridge over the Desert Southwest slowly builds northwestward again into Nevada. Temperatures will begin to warm back up and continue to be above average. One more short wave will move through Sunday that will increase the winds a bit again, but they look nothing like tomorrow at this point. Early next week, the high becomes anchored over Northern AZ and Utah with 700 mb temps rising to above 15 C. This will result in highs nearing the century mark across portions of Western NV next week with the Sierra valleys will into the 80s. Winds look light outside of a late afternoon zephyr for Tahoe and the Sierra Front. Temps at 500 mb remain near or above -6 C through Wednesday so thunderstorms look unlikely although a buildup or two is possible Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorms are beginning to look a little more likely next week, but it appears they will hold off until Thursday or Friday. Wallmann && .Aviation... Main impact to aviation will be periods of enhanced southwest-west winds trough this evening and again tomorrow afternoon. Mountain top observations have been gusting 40-50 mph at Slide and Peavine, likely leading to increased turbulence. This will continue through tonight and tomorrow. Gusts on the order of 25-30 kts are likely for all airports including RNO and MMH from roughly 21z-04z today, with 30-35 kt gusts the same time frame Thursday. With the strong gusty winds, areas of blowing dust could produce local MVFR/IFR conditions for areas around NFL, HTH. Looking ahead, low pressure departs the region Friday with hot high pressure building in over the weekend. This will lead to lighter winds Friday and Saturday with a return of zephyr westerlies Sunday. Density altitude may become a factor for some AIRCRAFT next Monday- Wednesday afternoons with highs nearing 100 for RNO, CXP, 85-90 TVL,TRK,MMH. -Chris && .FIRE WEATHER... A persistent dry slot and unseasonably hot temperatures have kept relative humidity very low through much of the Sierra and Western Nevada the past couple of days. Afternoon RH has been in the single digits for the mid slopes and lower elevations east of the Sierra while only up to 20% in the Tahoe Basin. Thermal circulations are also fairly strong with a temperature gradient supportive of gusts around 30 mph this afternoon. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon along the Western Nevada Sierra Front through 9 pm this evening. The dry slot will persist overnight through pretty much Friday night keeping overnight recoveries rather dismal, generally up to 35% east of the Sierra and 50-60% in Sierra valleys from the Tahoe Basin southward. Ridge tops and mid slopes will remain less than 40% in the Sierra. Still, Friday night will have the poorest recoveries as even drier air moves over the region dropping Sierra valley recoveries lower than 50%. Winds peak Thursday as a passing trough increases the pressure gradient across the region. Gusts will generally be 30-40 mph in the afternoon with wind prone locations gusting up to 45 mph. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for the Western Nevada Sierra Front and the Basin and Range where fuels have cured below 5500 feet. Fuels around Gerlach in 458 have also cured so extra caution should be exercised here as well, but no Red Flag Warning is in effect since the rest of the zone remains sub-critical. Friday will be a little breezy, but gusts should remain 25 mph and below. After a bit of a respite with temperatures falling to around average this weekend, hot conditions return next week. Fortunately, winds are not expected to be over warning criteria as the thermal circulations become interrupted by the thermal trough position over the Sierra. Boyd && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday NVZ450-453-459. Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday NVZ002. Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday NVZ001. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ450. Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday NVZ004. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday CAZ071. Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday CAZ073. Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday CAZ072. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 940 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 938 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Went ahead and let the Tornado Watch expire. Do not think we have any tornado threat left in the in that area, though a strong storm with pea size hail and 40 mph winds is not out of the question. Have trimmed back some of the counties in the Severe Thunderstorm Watch as the front is moving into the area. The rest of the Severe Watch remains, though the main threat for severe weather will be across south central KY. May have to extend the Watch in that area for an hour or so depending on how quickly the storms move out over the next hour. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)... Issued at 351 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 ...ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING... Early afternoon satellite imagery reveals partly to mostly sunny skies across the region. Convection along a frontal boundary has rapidly developed over the last hour or so. The atmosphere is highly unstable this afternoon with CAPE readings in the 3-4K J/Kg range and LI`s dipping down into the -8 to -10 deg C range. We still do have a slight cap, although very weak at this point, across much of north-central KY as evidenced by AMDAR soundings out of KSDF. As we continue to heat up over the next few hours, we`ll remove that cap/inversion and continued upscale growth of convection along the boundary will continue. Overall kinematic and thermodynamic profiles across the western 2/3rds of our region are suggestive of severe weather with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. High PWATs of greater than 2 inches combined with the instability will also allow these storms to load up on precip leading to the possibility of damaging downbursts. In areas along and east of I-65 and along and north of I-64, bulk shear values increase a bit as one heads north and east. Model proximity soundings in these areas show a bit more of directional shear. Thus, a threat of an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out. Coordination calls with SPC have yielded two watch boxes in our area. The first is a Tornado Watch that is in effect for our far eastern Bluegrass counties. This is an area characterized by an unstable atmosphere and higher values of speed and directional shear. Further west a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the remainder of the CWA. Primary hazards out in this area are damaging winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall. However, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out given that we do have some weaker shear in the area. Torrential rainfall will be possible with the storms as PWAT values are over 2 inches. The progressive nature of the storms look to limit the flash flood threat. However, areas that receive repeated rainfall episodes could see some localized flooding. In terms of sensible weather, line of storms across southern Indiana will continue to develop and drop southward into KY late this afternoon and evening. They will likely impact the Louisville metro area over the next 60-90 minutes and then into the Lexington metro area between 500-700 PM eastern time. We expect the storms to drop east-southeast through the evening. Should we get a cold pool to develop, then these storms will translate south and east at a faster rate. The storms should make it into southern KY by mid-late evening before weakening. Temperatures this afternoon will remain in the lower 90s and then cool into the upper 70s to the lower 80s after the storms pass. Some temperature recovery may occur after the storms, but overnight temps are expected to bottom out in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Drier and more tranquil weather are expected for Friday and Friday night. Highs Friday should warm into the upper 80s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 An upper level ridge will try and build into the region over the weekend. However, the ridge will not last all that long as a strong mid-level trough axis will swing across the northern US and knock the ridge back down to our south and southwest. This trough axis will likely amplify and carve out a deeper eastern US trough while shifting the core of the upper level ridge back to the west. In this case, the Ohio Valley will remain in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft and will have to be vigilant of perturbations that ride down through the flow aloft which could bring multiple rounds of convection to the region by mid to late week. In terms of sensible weather, mainly dry conditions are expected Saturday and Saturday night. We`ll see a chance of storms Sunday and into Monday as a cold front crosses the region. A brief break of dry weather is likely for Tuesday and Wednesday before the first of several mid-level perturbations move toward the region. We should note that these perturbations are very difficult to predict, even in short range modeling, so confidence out toward the end of the period is pretty close to climatology at this point. The extended will start off warm with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Temperatures will come down a bit for Monday and Tuesday with highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s. Lower to middle 80s will be the rule for Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s are expected for Wed/Thur mornings. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 701 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Main complex of storms has dropped south of SDF/LEX and threat there is largely over for the evening. A second line of isolated showers may brush the TAF sites between 00-02z but chances of organized storms are low. At BWG, bulk of remaining storms will slide east/southeast of the area but will remain in the vicinity. For tonight, low-level moisture and recent rainfall at SDF/LEX may bring a period of fog and/or stratus between 09-13z overnight. Some of this may occur at BWG as well. Winds are expected to lighten up overnight. Hi-res models are showing best fog chances to be across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky around SDF. Beyond that, expect VFR conditions at all TAF sites with generally northwest winds 8 to 10 kts. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........EER Short Term.....MJ Long Term......MJ Aviation.......ZT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF sites at this time, though tstm activity is expected to linger overnight in the Pennyrile region of KY just ahead of a southward-moving frontal boundary. By around sunrise, sometimes variable surface winds are expected to settle into a northerly direction and should remain below 10 kts. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will wind down across the area through 09z. Clouds will gradually thin out, allowing for some lower MVFR/IFR stratus to form between 08 and 12z. KSYM looks to see this first, given the quicker clearing, with the rest of the sites succumbing from north to south through dawn. The stratus will scatter out between 14 and 16z, with at least some isolated convection likely threatening along a line from KSJS to KI35 during the afternoon hours. An upper level ridge will then build in, providing a couple of days of dry weather. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day on Friday, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 309 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Thunderstorms continue to push south, but one last round will affect BWG over the next hour or two. After this moves through, convection should come to an end at all sites for the night. Will then need to watch for fog and/or low stratus developing, as a cold front only slowly sags through the region. Given some gradient winds in place, have favored low stratus over fog, with IFR cigs possible early this morning at LEX and SDF. Otherwise, the daylight hours will feature high pressure building in from the northwest. This will turn winds around more to the northwest through the day today and also bring mostly clear skies by late this afternoon into this evening. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........13 Aviation..........KJD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 309 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Thunderstorms continue to push south, but one last round will affect BWG over the next hour or two. After this moves through, convection should come to an end at all sites for the night. Will then need to watch for fog and/or low stratus developing, as a cold front only slowly sags through the region. Given some gradient winds in place, have favored low stratus over fog, with IFR cigs possible early this morning at LEX and SDF. Otherwise, the daylight hours will feature high pressure building in from the northwest. This will turn winds around more to the northwest through the day today and also bring mostly clear skies by late this afternoon into this evening. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........13 Aviation..........KJD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will gradually wind down across eastern Kentucky through the overnight, as instability and forcing wane. Freshened up the pops through dawn, with a gradual decline continuing. Also added in some fog, although some low stratus also looks like a good bet towards dawn. Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 60s to around 70 through the rest of the night. UPDATE Issued at 933 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 With area really worked over now, at least where the tornado watch was, have opted to let the watch go as it expires at the top of the hour anyways. The severe thunderstorm watch will remain up for now as we still have some storm working across southern Kentucky. This watch may be able to go soon as convection slips south. Meanwhile, still watching some new development back across central Kentucky and its slow movement is allow for some modest rainfall rates. This will bare watching as it slowly shifts south and east over the next several hours. UPDATE Issued at 844 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Cancelled a portion of the flash flood watch for Fleming, Bath, Rowan, and Montgomery counties as radar trends are not supportive of heavy rain over the next several hours. Will keep the watch out farther south as there has been some redevelopment back to the west across central Kentucky and will be spreading southeast into eastern Kentucky over the next 3 to 4 hours. With the initial round of heavy rain, any additional rain could quickly lead to flash flooding, especially if storms start to train over the area. UPDATE Issued at 752 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Initial line of convection has evolved into linear bowing segments and continue to pose a damaging wind threat as it shifts south towards the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. Farther north, convection along main cold front has fallen apart and become less organized. We may be able to let the watch go across the north very soon if convection does not show more signs of organization. This is of course good news as much of the area has already seen decent rainfall and any more would lead increased flooding concerns. Also, since this activity is showing more signs of picking up speed, flood concerns are decreasing a bit. We may be able to trim back some of the flood watch in a bit as well if current trends hold. For now will hold the line with watches and see how things evolve in the next hour. UPDATE Issued at 650 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Currently, the line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are continuing to track south slowly. Some lingering instability over the far southern counties seems to be enough favorable environment to sustain severe convection over the south. Will be issuing a new ZFP to highlight this. UPDATE Issued at 1142 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Current surface analysis across the area features temperatures warming into the lower 80s and a vague but present outflow boundary across central eastern Kentucky. As well, a cold front is present to the northwest and will slowly be making a south and southeast approach. Clearing skies and increased heating through the early afternoon hours will allow for rapid destabilization this afternoon as cells develop ahead of the slowly dropping southeast cold front. The remnant outflow boundary across the area will further enhance convection as storms become organized and produce possible damaging winds and heavy rainfall. As the front slides south and becomes west to east across the area this evening, training of storms becomes possible and where repeated bouts of rain has fallen before, a decent flash flood threat is valid. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch until 8pm. This may need to be extended depending on how long the activity lasts into this evening.. UPDATE Issued at 708 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Convection that was over ILN and RLX has shifted southeast, with a area of showers and thunderstorms currently impacting the northern portion of the CWA. Luckily storms have weakened significantly, so there is no severe threat at this time. However it could be putting down some decent rains, which will be something to keep in mind for any storms that develop or move over the same location later in the day. Otherwise, forecast seems to be in good shape this morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the temp, dew point, and wind forecasts were in line with ongoing conditions. Grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web, though no changes are needed to the forecast package at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 403 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 An active start to the period is expected today, thanks to a center of low pressure currently traveling eastward across Indiana and Ohio. This will continue on a southeast track through the day, pulling a cold front southward into the state between 18 and 21Z. The cold front will then remain in place across the northern half of the state through at least 6z tonight (Friday) before finally slowly shifting southward through the southern portion of the CWA through the day Friday. Along and just south of the current cold front, a stout area of convection has set up, currently encompassing much of IN, OH, and northern WV. This convection is taking a southeastward track, following the best theta-e advection gradients. Based on the current radar trends, the current convection may pass just north of the CWA through the next few hours. However, as the low continues eastward and the cold front begins to sag farther south as we begin gaining daytime sunlight and heating, expect pops to begin shifting into our area. As such, included slight chances over the next couple of hours, with scattered pops by 12Z, slowly spreading southward through about noon. Latest hi-res models all seem to agree that convection will be more scattered in nature as it moves across eastern KY. However, with decent CAPE throughout the morning/early afternoon, and stout winds in the low, mid, and upper levels, any of these storms could still produce some severe potential, mainly in the form of strong to damaging winds. Between 18 and 21Z, the cold front will begin its descent into KY. This will correspond with best peak heating and afternoon instability. CAPE values will top out between 3.5k and 4.5k j/kg between 18 and 0z, with LIs still dropping to -10 to -12. DCAPE will even max out around 1.5k j/kg by 0Z this evening. This will therefore be our best chance for seeing more widespread severe potential, with damaging winds still the main concern. Pops will increase to numerous along the frontal boundary in our northern CWA between 18 and 21Z, then slowly spread southeastward throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Despite the lingering frontal boundary, the center of low pressure will continue shifting eastward, robbing best instability from the area for the latter half of the overnight. Still a bit concerned, however, about PWAT values and heavy rainfall through the overnight. Any storms during the day could put down torrential rainfall, which may lead to further flooding concerns. In a fortunate note, however, it looks like during most of the day today, most widespread rains will mainly affect the northern CWA, which hasn`t been quite as worked over from previous day`s storms. However, any training of storms could quickly cause problems. Unfortunately, PWATS will actually increase to over 2 inches (nearly 2.5 inches at SME!) between 0 and 6z this evening according to the latest NAM12 soundings. This is slightly higher than the GFS soundings, but even this model is still reading nearly 2 inches. Will need to continue to monitor storms into the overnight for potential flooding concerns. For Friday, the cold front will continue to weaken, having little affect on the state by this point. In fact, strong NW flow will take hold across much of the CWA north of the boundary, bringing much drier air into the region, and cutting off any remaining precip concerns for the day. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today with the NW flow in place, but will still achieve the mid and upper 80s by the afternoon, though with slightly less humidity. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Upper level ridge continues to build into the region through the first part of the forecast period. The next weather maker will be a weak frontal boundary that progresses SE into the region, and this will begin increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms late weekend into the first part of next week. The storms will wain some as we move into Tuesday, but additional storms are possible by Thursday as another upper level wave approaches. Model wise the the spaghetti plot shows that the guidance remains in good agreement. The upper level high will be well established across the lower MS River Valley. Guidance remains in good agreement with the ridging breaking down by mid week. The breakdown will lead to cooler temperatures by the time we get to mid and late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will wind down across the area through 09z. Clouds will gradually thin out, allowing for some lower MVFR/IFR stratus to form between 08 and 12z. KSYM looks to see this first, given the quicker clearing, with the rest of the sites succumbing from north to south through dawn. The stratus will scatter out between 14 and 16z, with at least some isolated convection likely threatening along a line from KSJS to KI35 during the afternoon hours. An upper level ridge will then build in, providing a couple of days of dry weather. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day on Friday, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will gradually wind down across eastern Kentucky through the overnight, as instability and forcing wane. Freshened up the pops through dawn, with a gradual decline continuing. Also added in some fog, although some low stratus also looks like a good bet towards dawn. Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 60s to around 70 through the rest of the night. UPDATE Issued at 933 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 With area really worked over now, at least where the tornado watch was, have opted to let the watch go as it expires at the top of the hour anyways. The severe thunderstorm watch will remain up for now as we still have some storm working across southern Kentucky. This watch may be able to go soon as convection slips south. Meanwhile, still watching some new development back across central Kentucky and its slow movement is allow for some modest rainfall rates. This will bare watching as it slowly shifts south and east over the next several hours. UPDATE Issued at 844 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Cancelled a portion of the flash flood watch for Fleming, Bath, Rowan, and Montgomery counties as radar trends are not supportive of heavy rain over the next several hours. Will keep the watch out farther south as there has been some redevelopment back to the west across central Kentucky and will be spreading southeast into eastern Kentucky over the next 3 to 4 hours. With the initial round of heavy rain, any additional rain could quickly lead to flash flooding, especially if storms start to train over the area. UPDATE Issued at 752 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Initial line of convection has evolved into linear bowing segments and continue to pose a damaging wind threat as it shifts south towards the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. Farther north, convection along main cold front has fallen apart and become less organized. We may be able to let the watch go across the north very soon if convection does not show more signs of organization. This is of course good news as much of the area has already seen decent rainfall and any more would lead increased flooding concerns. Also, since this activity is showing more signs of picking up speed, flood concerns are decreasing a bit. We may be able to trim back some of the flood watch in a bit as well if current trends hold. For now will hold the line with watches and see how things evolve in the next hour. UPDATE Issued at 650 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Currently, the line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are continuing to track south slowly. Some lingering instability over the far southern counties seems to be enough favorable environment to sustain severe convection over the south. Will be issuing a new ZFP to highlight this. UPDATE Issued at 1142 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Current surface analysis across the area features temperatures warming into the lower 80s and a vague but present outflow boundary across central eastern Kentucky. As well, a cold front is present to the northwest and will slowly be making a south and southeast approach. Clearing skies and increased heating through the early afternoon hours will allow for rapid destabilization this afternoon as cells develop ahead of the slowly dropping southeast cold front. The remnant outflow boundary across the area will further enhance convection as storms become organized and produce possible damaging winds and heavy rainfall. As the front slides south and becomes west to east across the area this evening, training of storms becomes possible and where repeated bouts of rain has fallen before, a decent flash flood threat is valid. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch until 8pm. This may need to be extended depending on how long the activity lasts into this evening.. UPDATE Issued at 708 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Convection that was over ILN and RLX has shifted southeast, with a area of showers and thunderstorms currently impacting the northern portion of the CWA. Luckily storms have weakened significantly, so there is no severe threat at this time. However it could be putting down some decent rains, which will be something to keep in mind for any storms that develop or move over the same location later in the day. Otherwise, forecast seems to be in good shape this morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the temp, dew point, and wind forecasts were in line with ongoing conditions. Grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web, though no changes are needed to the forecast package at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 403 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 An active start to the period is expected today, thanks to a center of low pressure currently traveling eastward across Indiana and Ohio. This will continue on a southeast track through the day, pulling a cold front southward into the state between 18 and 21Z. The cold front will then remain in place across the northern half of the state through at least 6z tonight (Friday) before finally slowly shifting southward through the southern portion of the CWA through the day Friday. Along and just south of the current cold front, a stout area of convection has set up, currently encompassing much of IN, OH, and northern WV. This convection is taking a southeastward track, following the best theta-e advection gradients. Based on the current radar trends, the current convection may pass just north of the CWA through the next few hours. However, as the low continues eastward and the cold front begins to sag farther south as we begin gaining daytime sunlight and heating, expect pops to begin shifting into our area. As such, included slight chances over the next couple of hours, with scattered pops by 12Z, slowly spreading southward through about noon. Latest hi-res models all seem to agree that convection will be more scattered in nature as it moves across eastern KY. However, with decent CAPE throughout the morning/early afternoon, and stout winds in the low, mid, and upper levels, any of these storms could still produce some severe potential, mainly in the form of strong to damaging winds. Between 18 and 21Z, the cold front will begin its descent into KY. This will correspond with best peak heating and afternoon instability. CAPE values will top out between 3.5k and 4.5k j/kg between 18 and 0z, with LIs still dropping to -10 to -12. DCAPE will even max out around 1.5k j/kg by 0Z this evening. This will therefore be our best chance for seeing more widespread severe potential, with damaging winds still the main concern. Pops will increase to numerous along the frontal boundary in our northern CWA between 18 and 21Z, then slowly spread southeastward throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Despite the lingering frontal boundary, the center of low pressure will continue shifting eastward, robbing best instability from the area for the latter half of the overnight. Still a bit concerned, however, about PWAT values and heavy rainfall through the overnight. Any storms during the day could put down torrential rainfall, which may lead to further flooding concerns. In a fortunate note, however, it looks like during most of the day today, most widespread rains will mainly affect the northern CWA, which hasn`t been quite as worked over from previous day`s storms. However, any training of storms could quickly cause problems. Unfortunately, PWATS will actually increase to over 2 inches (nearly 2.5 inches at SME!) between 0 and 6z this evening according to the latest NAM12 soundings. This is slightly higher than the GFS soundings, but even this model is still reading nearly 2 inches. Will need to continue to monitor storms into the overnight for potential flooding concerns. For Friday, the cold front will continue to weaken, having little affect on the state by this point. In fact, strong NW flow will take hold across much of the CWA north of the boundary, bringing much drier air into the region, and cutting off any remaining precip concerns for the day. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today with the NW flow in place, but will still achieve the mid and upper 80s by the afternoon, though with slightly less humidity. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Upper level ridge continues to build into the region through the first part of the forecast period. The next weather maker will be a weak frontal boundary that progresses SE into the region, and this will begin increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms late weekend into the first part of next week. The storms will wain some as we move into Tuesday, but additional storms are possible by Thursday as another upper level wave approaches. Model wise the the spaghetti plot shows that the guidance remains in good agreement. The upper level high will be well established across the lower MS River Valley. Guidance remains in good agreement with the ridging breaking down by mid week. The breakdown will lead to cooler temperatures by the time we get to mid and late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will wind down across the area through 09z. Clouds will gradually thin out, allowing for some lower MVFR/IFR stratus to form between 08 and 12z. KSYM looks to see this first, given the quicker clearing, with the rest of the sites succumbing from north to south through dawn. The stratus will scatter out between 14 and 16z, with at least some isolated convection likely threatening along a line from KSJS to KI35 during the afternoon hours. An upper level ridge will then build in, providing a couple of days of dry weather. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day on Friday, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1245 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Updated aviation discussion only. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #290 has just been issued for southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky valid to 03Z. Storms have fired along a confluence zone, still ahead of the actual cold front, just to the east of Pike county and a few cells are trying to go into Warrick and Vanderburgh counties as of 1930Z. The storms will still be fighting a cap, and the westward extent of the development is uncertain. Given the instability available, any storms that can survive the cap could produce damaging winds and possibly some large hail. They will move to the east southeast, and should move fast enough to prevent much flash flood potential, but we will have to watch for training issues. The models continue to bring the front through the area tonight, and a small chance of thunderstorms will remain until the front has passed. They don`t push it far southwest of our Missouri counties and bring it back into western portions of our Missouri counties by midday Friday. This will result in a slight chance of storms over there and possibly into the Purchase area through the afternoon. While there will be some cooling, heat indices are still likely to reach 100 over southeast Missouri in the afternoon. Warm, moist advection in the low-levels will maintain a small chance of storms from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and west Kentucky Saturday. This activity will push northeast through the eastern portions of the region Saturday night. Severe weather is not anticipated Saturday. Much of the area will see heat indices around 100 Saturday, and some locations may touch 105. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, closing the weekend, with a broad circulation of High Pressure aloft, from the Lower Mississippi to the Tennessee Valley. The center of the H5 Anticyclone to our south is modeled from 593-595 DM, with 592 DM+ heights across the PAH FA, and the corresponding 1000-500 mb thickness field from 5770-5790 meters. We see also a warm/juicy tongue of high theta air drawn overtop the FA on lower trop swlys. The sum resultant effect looks like another oppressive heat index day, with pm peaks in the triple digits and knocking on the door of headline criteria for much of the FA. With that much heat/humidity in the lower trop, diurnally driven Pops cannot be ruled out, if they can bust thru the warm mid level cap. A feature that will aid that cap busting process soon comes into play, as a frontal boundary evolves and is driven southward toward the FA from the barrelling waves of energy rounding the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. Monday-Monday night, we see this energy spill southward, and H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs. Where they differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. We`d like to minimize or altogether eliminate Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night, with the broad blend of features showing slightly cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame, with collab adjustments if nec. Thus, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, on Wed, the models do dive a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast Wed-Thu. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF sites at this time, though tstm activity is expected to linger overnight in the Pennyrile region of KY just ahead of a southward-moving frontal boundary. By around sunrise, sometimes variable surface winds are expected to settle into a northerly direction and should remain below 10 kts. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1245 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Updated aviation discussion only. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #290 has just been issued for southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky valid to 03Z. Storms have fired along a confluence zone, still ahead of the actual cold front, just to the east of Pike county and a few cells are trying to go into Warrick and Vanderburgh counties as of 1930Z. The storms will still be fighting a cap, and the westward extent of the development is uncertain. Given the instability available, any storms that can survive the cap could produce damaging winds and possibly some large hail. They will move to the east southeast, and should move fast enough to prevent much flash flood potential, but we will have to watch for training issues. The models continue to bring the front through the area tonight, and a small chance of thunderstorms will remain until the front has passed. They don`t push it far southwest of our Missouri counties and bring it back into western portions of our Missouri counties by midday Friday. This will result in a slight chance of storms over there and possibly into the Purchase area through the afternoon. While there will be some cooling, heat indices are still likely to reach 100 over southeast Missouri in the afternoon. Warm, moist advection in the low-levels will maintain a small chance of storms from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and west Kentucky Saturday. This activity will push northeast through the eastern portions of the region Saturday night. Severe weather is not anticipated Saturday. Much of the area will see heat indices around 100 Saturday, and some locations may touch 105. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, closing the weekend, with a broad circulation of High Pressure aloft, from the Lower Mississippi to the Tennessee Valley. The center of the H5 Anticyclone to our south is modeled from 593-595 DM, with 592 DM+ heights across the PAH FA, and the corresponding 1000-500 mb thickness field from 5770-5790 meters. We see also a warm/juicy tongue of high theta air drawn overtop the FA on lower trop swlys. The sum resultant effect looks like another oppressive heat index day, with pm peaks in the triple digits and knocking on the door of headline criteria for much of the FA. With that much heat/humidity in the lower trop, diurnally driven Pops cannot be ruled out, if they can bust thru the warm mid level cap. A feature that will aid that cap busting process soon comes into play, as a frontal boundary evolves and is driven southward toward the FA from the barrelling waves of energy rounding the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. Monday-Monday night, we see this energy spill southward, and H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs. Where they differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. We`d like to minimize or altogether eliminate Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night, with the broad blend of features showing slightly cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame, with collab adjustments if nec. Thus, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, on Wed, the models do dive a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast Wed-Thu. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF sites at this time, though tstm activity is expected to linger overnight in the Pennyrile region of KY just ahead of a southward-moving frontal boundary. By around sunrise, sometimes variable surface winds are expected to settle into a northerly direction and should remain below 10 kts. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 104 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1051 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Despite the multiple rounds of storms, instability persists across south central KY. This should continue to wane over the next couple of hours. Given that storms are ongoing and a few could still become strong, have extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 05Z across portions of central KY. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. Issued at 938 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Went ahead and let the Tornado Watch expire. Do not think we have any tornado threat left in the in that area, though a strong storm with pea size hail and 40 mph winds is not out of the question. Have trimmed back some of the counties in the Severe Thunderstorm Watch as the front is moving into the area. The rest of the Severe Watch remains, though the main threat for severe weather will be across south central KY. May have to extend the Watch in that area for an hour or so depending on how quickly the storms move out over the next hour. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)... Issued at 351 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 ...ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING... Early afternoon satellite imagery reveals partly to mostly sunny skies across the region. Convection along a frontal boundary has rapidly developed over the last hour or so. The atmosphere is highly unstable this afternoon with CAPE readings in the 3-4K J/Kg range and LI`s dipping down into the -8 to -10 deg C range. We still do have a slight cap, although very weak at this point, across much of north-central KY as evidenced by AMDAR soundings out of KSDF. As we continue to heat up over the next few hours, we`ll remove that cap/inversion and continued upscale growth of convection along the boundary will continue. Overall kinematic and thermodynamic profiles across the western 2/3rds of our region are suggestive of severe weather with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. High PWATs of greater than 2 inches combined with the instability will also allow these storms to load up on precip leading to the possibility of damaging downbursts. In areas along and east of I-65 and along and north of I-64, bulk shear values increase a bit as one heads north and east. Model proximity soundings in these areas show a bit more of directional shear. Thus, a threat of an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out. Coordination calls with SPC have yielded two watch boxes in our area. The first is a Tornado Watch that is in effect for our far eastern Bluegrass counties. This is an area characterized by an unstable atmosphere and higher values of speed and directional shear. Further west a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the remainder of the CWA. Primary hazards out in this area are damaging winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall. However, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out given that we do have some weaker shear in the area. Torrential rainfall will be possible with the storms as PWAT values are over 2 inches. The progressive nature of the storms look to limit the flash flood threat. However, areas that receive repeated rainfall episodes could see some localized flooding. In terms of sensible weather, line of storms across southern Indiana will continue to develop and drop southward into KY late this afternoon and evening. They will likely impact the Louisville metro area over the next 60-90 minutes and then into the Lexington metro area between 500-700 PM eastern time. We expect the storms to drop east-southeast through the evening. Should we get a cold pool to develop, then these storms will translate south and east at a faster rate. The storms should make it into southern KY by mid-late evening before weakening. Temperatures this afternoon will remain in the lower 90s and then cool into the upper 70s to the lower 80s after the storms pass. Some temperature recovery may occur after the storms, but overnight temps are expected to bottom out in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Drier and more tranquil weather are expected for Friday and Friday night. Highs Friday should warm into the upper 80s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 An upper level ridge will try and build into the region over the weekend. However, the ridge will not last all that long as a strong mid-level trough axis will swing across the northern US and knock the ridge back down to our south and southwest. This trough axis will likely amplify and carve out a deeper eastern US trough while shifting the core of the upper level ridge back to the west. In this case, the Ohio Valley will remain in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft and will have to be vigilant of perturbations that ride down through the flow aloft which could bring multiple rounds of convection to the region by mid to late week. In terms of sensible weather, mainly dry conditions are expected Saturday and Saturday night. We`ll see a chance of storms Sunday and into Monday as a cold front crosses the region. A brief break of dry weather is likely for Tuesday and Wednesday before the first of several mid-level perturbations move toward the region. We should note that these perturbations are very difficult to predict, even in short range modeling, so confidence out toward the end of the period is pretty close to climatology at this point. The extended will start off warm with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Temperatures will come down a bit for Monday and Tuesday with highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s. Lower to middle 80s will be the rule for Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s are expected for Wed/Thur mornings. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Thunderstorms continue to push south, but one last round will affect BWG over the next hour or two. After this moves through, convection should come to an end at all sites for the night. Will then need to watch for fog and/or low stratus developing, as a cold front only slowly sags through the region. Given some gradient winds in place, have favored low stratus over fog, with IFR cigs possible early this morning at LEX and SDF. Otherwise, the daylight hours will feature high pressure building in from the northwest. This will turn winds around more to the northwest through the day today and also bring mostly clear skies by late this afternoon into this evening. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........EER Short Term.....MJ Long Term......MJ Aviation.......KJD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1120 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1119 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Frontal boundary still resides north of the region this morning as evidenced by surface wind observations and dewpoints. Drier air aloft is coming in and creating a bit of an inversion aloft which is trapping moisture in the low-levels. This combined with a bit of heating has led to more statocu developing across the region. For the next few hours, we`ll continue to see an influx of drier air eventually build into the region. However, until sufficient drier air and mixing take over, we`re going to see mostly cloudy skies with filtered sunshine. The clouds have kept temperatures down in the 70s this morning. Once we mix out some of these clouds temperatures will warm into the 80s this afternoon. On a side note, the building ridge that will move in later tonight and on Saturday will lead to some air stagnation across the region. This will result in higher concentrations of pollution across the metro area. The Louisville Air Pollution Control District has issued an Air Quality Alert for Saturday due to ozone. .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Surface cold front approaching the Ohio River this morning. Along it, some low stratus and fog has developed at SDF and LEX. Worst conditions (LIFR) are currently at SDF, but things should improve quickly this morning with daytime mixing. LEX should also improve quickly as clouds mix out. Otherwise, expect winds going more to the WNW today and skies clearing as the front moves through. May see some additional fog development tonight mainly at BWG, thus have put in some high-end MVFR vsbys for early tomorrow morning. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........MJ Short Term.....13 Long Term......13 Aviation.......KJD
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 IFR/MVFR stratus will scatter out through 15z, with isolated to scattered convection threatening during the afternoon hours, mainly along a line from KSJS to KI35. Scattered to broken cumulus in the 3-5K feet AGL range will clear out tonight. Fog will develop across the area, with dense fog a good bet at most of the TAF sites at some point between 06 and 12z. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 IFR/MVFR stratus will scatter out through 15z, with isolated to scattered convection threatening during the afternoon hours, mainly along a line from KSJS to KI35. Scattered to broken cumulus in the 3-5K feet AGL range will clear out tonight. Fog will develop across the area, with dense fog a good bet at most of the TAF sites at some point between 06 and 12z. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Today through tonight. VFR. Ocnl high clouds. Light winds. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Today through tonight. VFR. Ocnl high clouds. Light winds. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 648 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Surface cold front approaching the Ohio River this morning. Along it, some low stratus and fog has developed at SDF and LEX. Worst conditions (LIFR) are currently at SDF, but things should improve quickly this morning with daytime mixing. LEX should also improve quickly as clouds mix out. Otherwise, expect winds going more to the WNW today and skies clearing as the front moves through. May see some additional fog development tonight mainly at BWG, thus have put in some high-end MVFR vsbys for early tomorrow morning. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........13 Aviation..........KJD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF sites at this time, though tstm activity is expected to linger overnight in the Pennyrile region of KY just ahead of a southward-moving frontal boundary. By around sunrise, sometimes variable surface winds are expected to settle into a northerly direction and should remain below 10 kts. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will wind down across the area through 09z. Clouds will gradually thin out, allowing for some lower MVFR/IFR stratus to form between 08 and 12z. KSYM looks to see this first, given the quicker clearing, with the rest of the sites succumbing from north to south through dawn. The stratus will scatter out between 14 and 16z, with at least some isolated convection likely threatening along a line from KSJS to KI35 during the afternoon hours. An upper level ridge will then build in, providing a couple of days of dry weather. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day on Friday, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 309 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Thunderstorms continue to push south, but one last round will affect BWG over the next hour or two. After this moves through, convection should come to an end at all sites for the night. Will then need to watch for fog and/or low stratus developing, as a cold front only slowly sags through the region. Given some gradient winds in place, have favored low stratus over fog, with IFR cigs possible early this morning at LEX and SDF. Otherwise, the daylight hours will feature high pressure building in from the northwest. This will turn winds around more to the northwest through the day today and also bring mostly clear skies by late this afternoon into this evening. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........13 Aviation..........KJD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 309 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Thunderstorms continue to push south, but one last round will affect BWG over the next hour or two. After this moves through, convection should come to an end at all sites for the night. Will then need to watch for fog and/or low stratus developing, as a cold front only slowly sags through the region. Given some gradient winds in place, have favored low stratus over fog, with IFR cigs possible early this morning at LEX and SDF. Otherwise, the daylight hours will feature high pressure building in from the northwest. This will turn winds around more to the northwest through the day today and also bring mostly clear skies by late this afternoon into this evening. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........13 Aviation..........KJD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will gradually wind down across eastern Kentucky through the overnight, as instability and forcing wane. Freshened up the pops through dawn, with a gradual decline continuing. Also added in some fog, although some low stratus also looks like a good bet towards dawn. Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 60s to around 70 through the rest of the night. UPDATE Issued at 933 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 With area really worked over now, at least where the tornado watch was, have opted to let the watch go as it expires at the top of the hour anyways. The severe thunderstorm watch will remain up for now as we still have some storm working across southern Kentucky. This watch may be able to go soon as convection slips south. Meanwhile, still watching some new development back across central Kentucky and its slow movement is allow for some modest rainfall rates. This will bare watching as it slowly shifts south and east over the next several hours. UPDATE Issued at 844 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Cancelled a portion of the flash flood watch for Fleming, Bath, Rowan, and Montgomery counties as radar trends are not supportive of heavy rain over the next several hours. Will keep the watch out farther south as there has been some redevelopment back to the west across central Kentucky and will be spreading southeast into eastern Kentucky over the next 3 to 4 hours. With the initial round of heavy rain, any additional rain could quickly lead to flash flooding, especially if storms start to train over the area. UPDATE Issued at 752 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Initial line of convection has evolved into linear bowing segments and continue to pose a damaging wind threat as it shifts south towards the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. Farther north, convection along main cold front has fallen apart and become less organized. We may be able to let the watch go across the north very soon if convection does not show more signs of organization. This is of course good news as much of the area has already seen decent rainfall and any more would lead increased flooding concerns. Also, since this activity is showing more signs of picking up speed, flood concerns are decreasing a bit. We may be able to trim back some of the flood watch in a bit as well if current trends hold. For now will hold the line with watches and see how things evolve in the next hour. UPDATE Issued at 650 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Currently, the line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are continuing to track south slowly. Some lingering instability over the far southern counties seems to be enough favorable environment to sustain severe convection over the south. Will be issuing a new ZFP to highlight this. UPDATE Issued at 1142 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Current surface analysis across the area features temperatures warming into the lower 80s and a vague but present outflow boundary across central eastern Kentucky. As well, a cold front is present to the northwest and will slowly be making a south and southeast approach. Clearing skies and increased heating through the early afternoon hours will allow for rapid destabilization this afternoon as cells develop ahead of the slowly dropping southeast cold front. The remnant outflow boundary across the area will further enhance convection as storms become organized and produce possible damaging winds and heavy rainfall. As the front slides south and becomes west to east across the area this evening, training of storms becomes possible and where repeated bouts of rain has fallen before, a decent flash flood threat is valid. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch until 8pm. This may need to be extended depending on how long the activity lasts into this evening.. UPDATE Issued at 708 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Convection that was over ILN and RLX has shifted southeast, with a area of showers and thunderstorms currently impacting the northern portion of the CWA. Luckily storms have weakened significantly, so there is no severe threat at this time. However it could be putting down some decent rains, which will be something to keep in mind for any storms that develop or move over the same location later in the day. Otherwise, forecast seems to be in good shape this morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the temp, dew point, and wind forecasts were in line with ongoing conditions. Grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web, though no changes are needed to the forecast package at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 403 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 An active start to the period is expected today, thanks to a center of low pressure currently traveling eastward across Indiana and Ohio. This will continue on a southeast track through the day, pulling a cold front southward into the state between 18 and 21Z. The cold front will then remain in place across the northern half of the state through at least 6z tonight (Friday) before finally slowly shifting southward through the southern portion of the CWA through the day Friday. Along and just south of the current cold front, a stout area of convection has set up, currently encompassing much of IN, OH, and northern WV. This convection is taking a southeastward track, following the best theta-e advection gradients. Based on the current radar trends, the current convection may pass just north of the CWA through the next few hours. However, as the low continues eastward and the cold front begins to sag farther south as we begin gaining daytime sunlight and heating, expect pops to begin shifting into our area. As such, included slight chances over the next couple of hours, with scattered pops by 12Z, slowly spreading southward through about noon. Latest hi-res models all seem to agree that convection will be more scattered in nature as it moves across eastern KY. However, with decent CAPE throughout the morning/early afternoon, and stout winds in the low, mid, and upper levels, any of these storms could still produce some severe potential, mainly in the form of strong to damaging winds. Between 18 and 21Z, the cold front will begin its descent into KY. This will correspond with best peak heating and afternoon instability. CAPE values will top out between 3.5k and 4.5k j/kg between 18 and 0z, with LIs still dropping to -10 to -12. DCAPE will even max out around 1.5k j/kg by 0Z this evening. This will therefore be our best chance for seeing more widespread severe potential, with damaging winds still the main concern. Pops will increase to numerous along the frontal boundary in our northern CWA between 18 and 21Z, then slowly spread southeastward throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Despite the lingering frontal boundary, the center of low pressure will continue shifting eastward, robbing best instability from the area for the latter half of the overnight. Still a bit concerned, however, about PWAT values and heavy rainfall through the overnight. Any storms during the day could put down torrential rainfall, which may lead to further flooding concerns. In a fortunate note, however, it looks like during most of the day today, most widespread rains will mainly affect the northern CWA, which hasn`t been quite as worked over from previous day`s storms. However, any training of storms could quickly cause problems. Unfortunately, PWATS will actually increase to over 2 inches (nearly 2.5 inches at SME!) between 0 and 6z this evening according to the latest NAM12 soundings. This is slightly higher than the GFS soundings, but even this model is still reading nearly 2 inches. Will need to continue to monitor storms into the overnight for potential flooding concerns. For Friday, the cold front will continue to weaken, having little affect on the state by this point. In fact, strong NW flow will take hold across much of the CWA north of the boundary, bringing much drier air into the region, and cutting off any remaining precip concerns for the day. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today with the NW flow in place, but will still achieve the mid and upper 80s by the afternoon, though with slightly less humidity. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Upper level ridge continues to build into the region through the first part of the forecast period. The next weather maker will be a weak frontal boundary that progresses SE into the region, and this will begin increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms late weekend into the first part of next week. The storms will wain some as we move into Tuesday, but additional storms are possible by Thursday as another upper level wave approaches. Model wise the the spaghetti plot shows that the guidance remains in good agreement. The upper level high will be well established across the lower MS River Valley. Guidance remains in good agreement with the ridging breaking down by mid week. The breakdown will lead to cooler temperatures by the time we get to mid and late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will wind down across the area through 09z. Clouds will gradually thin out, allowing for some lower MVFR/IFR stratus to form between 08 and 12z. KSYM looks to see this first, given the quicker clearing, with the rest of the sites succumbing from north to south through dawn. The stratus will scatter out between 14 and 16z, with at least some isolated convection likely threatening along a line from KSJS to KI35 during the afternoon hours. An upper level ridge will then build in, providing a couple of days of dry weather. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day on Friday, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will gradually wind down across eastern Kentucky through the overnight, as instability and forcing wane. Freshened up the pops through dawn, with a gradual decline continuing. Also added in some fog, although some low stratus also looks like a good bet towards dawn. Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 60s to around 70 through the rest of the night. UPDATE Issued at 933 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 With area really worked over now, at least where the tornado watch was, have opted to let the watch go as it expires at the top of the hour anyways. The severe thunderstorm watch will remain up for now as we still have some storm working across southern Kentucky. This watch may be able to go soon as convection slips south. Meanwhile, still watching some new development back across central Kentucky and its slow movement is allow for some modest rainfall rates. This will bare watching as it slowly shifts south and east over the next several hours. UPDATE Issued at 844 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Cancelled a portion of the flash flood watch for Fleming, Bath, Rowan, and Montgomery counties as radar trends are not supportive of heavy rain over the next several hours. Will keep the watch out farther south as there has been some redevelopment back to the west across central Kentucky and will be spreading southeast into eastern Kentucky over the next 3 to 4 hours. With the initial round of heavy rain, any additional rain could quickly lead to flash flooding, especially if storms start to train over the area. UPDATE Issued at 752 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Initial line of convection has evolved into linear bowing segments and continue to pose a damaging wind threat as it shifts south towards the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. Farther north, convection along main cold front has fallen apart and become less organized. We may be able to let the watch go across the north very soon if convection does not show more signs of organization. This is of course good news as much of the area has already seen decent rainfall and any more would lead increased flooding concerns. Also, since this activity is showing more signs of picking up speed, flood concerns are decreasing a bit. We may be able to trim back some of the flood watch in a bit as well if current trends hold. For now will hold the line with watches and see how things evolve in the next hour. UPDATE Issued at 650 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Currently, the line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are continuing to track south slowly. Some lingering instability over the far southern counties seems to be enough favorable environment to sustain severe convection over the south. Will be issuing a new ZFP to highlight this. UPDATE Issued at 1142 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Current surface analysis across the area features temperatures warming into the lower 80s and a vague but present outflow boundary across central eastern Kentucky. As well, a cold front is present to the northwest and will slowly be making a south and southeast approach. Clearing skies and increased heating through the early afternoon hours will allow for rapid destabilization this afternoon as cells develop ahead of the slowly dropping southeast cold front. The remnant outflow boundary across the area will further enhance convection as storms become organized and produce possible damaging winds and heavy rainfall. As the front slides south and becomes west to east across the area this evening, training of storms becomes possible and where repeated bouts of rain has fallen before, a decent flash flood threat is valid. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch until 8pm. This may need to be extended depending on how long the activity lasts into this evening.. UPDATE Issued at 708 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Convection that was over ILN and RLX has shifted southeast, with a area of showers and thunderstorms currently impacting the northern portion of the CWA. Luckily storms have weakened significantly, so there is no severe threat at this time. However it could be putting down some decent rains, which will be something to keep in mind for any storms that develop or move over the same location later in the day. Otherwise, forecast seems to be in good shape this morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the temp, dew point, and wind forecasts were in line with ongoing conditions. Grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web, though no changes are needed to the forecast package at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 403 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 An active start to the period is expected today, thanks to a center of low pressure currently traveling eastward across Indiana and Ohio. This will continue on a southeast track through the day, pulling a cold front southward into the state between 18 and 21Z. The cold front will then remain in place across the northern half of the state through at least 6z tonight (Friday) before finally slowly shifting southward through the southern portion of the CWA through the day Friday. Along and just south of the current cold front, a stout area of convection has set up, currently encompassing much of IN, OH, and northern WV. This convection is taking a southeastward track, following the best theta-e advection gradients. Based on the current radar trends, the current convection may pass just north of the CWA through the next few hours. However, as the low continues eastward and the cold front begins to sag farther south as we begin gaining daytime sunlight and heating, expect pops to begin shifting into our area. As such, included slight chances over the next couple of hours, with scattered pops by 12Z, slowly spreading southward through about noon. Latest hi-res models all seem to agree that convection will be more scattered in nature as it moves across eastern KY. However, with decent CAPE throughout the morning/early afternoon, and stout winds in the low, mid, and upper levels, any of these storms could still produce some severe potential, mainly in the form of strong to damaging winds. Between 18 and 21Z, the cold front will begin its descent into KY. This will correspond with best peak heating and afternoon instability. CAPE values will top out between 3.5k and 4.5k j/kg between 18 and 0z, with LIs still dropping to -10 to -12. DCAPE will even max out around 1.5k j/kg by 0Z this evening. This will therefore be our best chance for seeing more widespread severe potential, with damaging winds still the main concern. Pops will increase to numerous along the frontal boundary in our northern CWA between 18 and 21Z, then slowly spread southeastward throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Despite the lingering frontal boundary, the center of low pressure will continue shifting eastward, robbing best instability from the area for the latter half of the overnight. Still a bit concerned, however, about PWAT values and heavy rainfall through the overnight. Any storms during the day could put down torrential rainfall, which may lead to further flooding concerns. In a fortunate note, however, it looks like during most of the day today, most widespread rains will mainly affect the northern CWA, which hasn`t been quite as worked over from previous day`s storms. However, any training of storms could quickly cause problems. Unfortunately, PWATS will actually increase to over 2 inches (nearly 2.5 inches at SME!) between 0 and 6z this evening according to the latest NAM12 soundings. This is slightly higher than the GFS soundings, but even this model is still reading nearly 2 inches. Will need to continue to monitor storms into the overnight for potential flooding concerns. For Friday, the cold front will continue to weaken, having little affect on the state by this point. In fact, strong NW flow will take hold across much of the CWA north of the boundary, bringing much drier air into the region, and cutting off any remaining precip concerns for the day. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today with the NW flow in place, but will still achieve the mid and upper 80s by the afternoon, though with slightly less humidity. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Upper level ridge continues to build into the region through the first part of the forecast period. The next weather maker will be a weak frontal boundary that progresses SE into the region, and this will begin increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms late weekend into the first part of next week. The storms will wain some as we move into Tuesday, but additional storms are possible by Thursday as another upper level wave approaches. Model wise the the spaghetti plot shows that the guidance remains in good agreement. The upper level high will be well established across the lower MS River Valley. Guidance remains in good agreement with the ridging breaking down by mid week. The breakdown will lead to cooler temperatures by the time we get to mid and late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will wind down across the area through 09z. Clouds will gradually thin out, allowing for some lower MVFR/IFR stratus to form between 08 and 12z. KSYM looks to see this first, given the quicker clearing, with the rest of the sites succumbing from north to south through dawn. The stratus will scatter out between 14 and 16z, with at least some isolated convection likely threatening along a line from KSJS to KI35 during the afternoon hours. An upper level ridge will then build in, providing a couple of days of dry weather. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day on Friday, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1245 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Updated aviation discussion only. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #290 has just been issued for southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky valid to 03Z. Storms have fired along a confluence zone, still ahead of the actual cold front, just to the east of Pike county and a few cells are trying to go into Warrick and Vanderburgh counties as of 1930Z. The storms will still be fighting a cap, and the westward extent of the development is uncertain. Given the instability available, any storms that can survive the cap could produce damaging winds and possibly some large hail. They will move to the east southeast, and should move fast enough to prevent much flash flood potential, but we will have to watch for training issues. The models continue to bring the front through the area tonight, and a small chance of thunderstorms will remain until the front has passed. They don`t push it far southwest of our Missouri counties and bring it back into western portions of our Missouri counties by midday Friday. This will result in a slight chance of storms over there and possibly into the Purchase area through the afternoon. While there will be some cooling, heat indices are still likely to reach 100 over southeast Missouri in the afternoon. Warm, moist advection in the low-levels will maintain a small chance of storms from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and west Kentucky Saturday. This activity will push northeast through the eastern portions of the region Saturday night. Severe weather is not anticipated Saturday. Much of the area will see heat indices around 100 Saturday, and some locations may touch 105. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, closing the weekend, with a broad circulation of High Pressure aloft, from the Lower Mississippi to the Tennessee Valley. The center of the H5 Anticyclone to our south is modeled from 593-595 DM, with 592 DM+ heights across the PAH FA, and the corresponding 1000-500 mb thickness field from 5770-5790 meters. We see also a warm/juicy tongue of high theta air drawn overtop the FA on lower trop swlys. The sum resultant effect looks like another oppressive heat index day, with pm peaks in the triple digits and knocking on the door of headline criteria for much of the FA. With that much heat/humidity in the lower trop, diurnally driven Pops cannot be ruled out, if they can bust thru the warm mid level cap. A feature that will aid that cap busting process soon comes into play, as a frontal boundary evolves and is driven southward toward the FA from the barrelling waves of energy rounding the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. Monday-Monday night, we see this energy spill southward, and H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs. Where they differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. We`d like to minimize or altogether eliminate Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night, with the broad blend of features showing slightly cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame, with collab adjustments if nec. Thus, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, on Wed, the models do dive a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast Wed-Thu. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF sites at this time, though tstm activity is expected to linger overnight in the Pennyrile region of KY just ahead of a southward-moving frontal boundary. By around sunrise, sometimes variable surface winds are expected to settle into a northerly direction and should remain below 10 kts. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1245 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Updated aviation discussion only. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #290 has just been issued for southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky valid to 03Z. Storms have fired along a confluence zone, still ahead of the actual cold front, just to the east of Pike county and a few cells are trying to go into Warrick and Vanderburgh counties as of 1930Z. The storms will still be fighting a cap, and the westward extent of the development is uncertain. Given the instability available, any storms that can survive the cap could produce damaging winds and possibly some large hail. They will move to the east southeast, and should move fast enough to prevent much flash flood potential, but we will have to watch for training issues. The models continue to bring the front through the area tonight, and a small chance of thunderstorms will remain until the front has passed. They don`t push it far southwest of our Missouri counties and bring it back into western portions of our Missouri counties by midday Friday. This will result in a slight chance of storms over there and possibly into the Purchase area through the afternoon. While there will be some cooling, heat indices are still likely to reach 100 over southeast Missouri in the afternoon. Warm, moist advection in the low-levels will maintain a small chance of storms from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and west Kentucky Saturday. This activity will push northeast through the eastern portions of the region Saturday night. Severe weather is not anticipated Saturday. Much of the area will see heat indices around 100 Saturday, and some locations may touch 105. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, closing the weekend, with a broad circulation of High Pressure aloft, from the Lower Mississippi to the Tennessee Valley. The center of the H5 Anticyclone to our south is modeled from 593-595 DM, with 592 DM+ heights across the PAH FA, and the corresponding 1000-500 mb thickness field from 5770-5790 meters. We see also a warm/juicy tongue of high theta air drawn overtop the FA on lower trop swlys. The sum resultant effect looks like another oppressive heat index day, with pm peaks in the triple digits and knocking on the door of headline criteria for much of the FA. With that much heat/humidity in the lower trop, diurnally driven Pops cannot be ruled out, if they can bust thru the warm mid level cap. A feature that will aid that cap busting process soon comes into play, as a frontal boundary evolves and is driven southward toward the FA from the barrelling waves of energy rounding the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. Monday-Monday night, we see this energy spill southward, and H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs. Where they differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. We`d like to minimize or altogether eliminate Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night, with the broad blend of features showing slightly cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame, with collab adjustments if nec. Thus, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, on Wed, the models do dive a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast Wed-Thu. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF sites at this time, though tstm activity is expected to linger overnight in the Pennyrile region of KY just ahead of a southward-moving frontal boundary. By around sunrise, sometimes variable surface winds are expected to settle into a northerly direction and should remain below 10 kts. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 104 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1051 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Despite the multiple rounds of storms, instability persists across south central KY. This should continue to wane over the next couple of hours. Given that storms are ongoing and a few could still become strong, have extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 05Z across portions of central KY. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. Issued at 938 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Went ahead and let the Tornado Watch expire. Do not think we have any tornado threat left in the in that area, though a strong storm with pea size hail and 40 mph winds is not out of the question. Have trimmed back some of the counties in the Severe Thunderstorm Watch as the front is moving into the area. The rest of the Severe Watch remains, though the main threat for severe weather will be across south central KY. May have to extend the Watch in that area for an hour or so depending on how quickly the storms move out over the next hour. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)... Issued at 351 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 ...ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING... Early afternoon satellite imagery reveals partly to mostly sunny skies across the region. Convection along a frontal boundary has rapidly developed over the last hour or so. The atmosphere is highly unstable this afternoon with CAPE readings in the 3-4K J/Kg range and LI`s dipping down into the -8 to -10 deg C range. We still do have a slight cap, although very weak at this point, across much of north-central KY as evidenced by AMDAR soundings out of KSDF. As we continue to heat up over the next few hours, we`ll remove that cap/inversion and continued upscale growth of convection along the boundary will continue. Overall kinematic and thermodynamic profiles across the western 2/3rds of our region are suggestive of severe weather with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. High PWATs of greater than 2 inches combined with the instability will also allow these storms to load up on precip leading to the possibility of damaging downbursts. In areas along and east of I-65 and along and north of I-64, bulk shear values increase a bit as one heads north and east. Model proximity soundings in these areas show a bit more of directional shear. Thus, a threat of an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out. Coordination calls with SPC have yielded two watch boxes in our area. The first is a Tornado Watch that is in effect for our far eastern Bluegrass counties. This is an area characterized by an unstable atmosphere and higher values of speed and directional shear. Further west a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the remainder of the CWA. Primary hazards out in this area are damaging winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall. However, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out given that we do have some weaker shear in the area. Torrential rainfall will be possible with the storms as PWAT values are over 2 inches. The progressive nature of the storms look to limit the flash flood threat. However, areas that receive repeated rainfall episodes could see some localized flooding. In terms of sensible weather, line of storms across southern Indiana will continue to develop and drop southward into KY late this afternoon and evening. They will likely impact the Louisville metro area over the next 60-90 minutes and then into the Lexington metro area between 500-700 PM eastern time. We expect the storms to drop east-southeast through the evening. Should we get a cold pool to develop, then these storms will translate south and east at a faster rate. The storms should make it into southern KY by mid-late evening before weakening. Temperatures this afternoon will remain in the lower 90s and then cool into the upper 70s to the lower 80s after the storms pass. Some temperature recovery may occur after the storms, but overnight temps are expected to bottom out in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Drier and more tranquil weather are expected for Friday and Friday night. Highs Friday should warm into the upper 80s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 An upper level ridge will try and build into the region over the weekend. However, the ridge will not last all that long as a strong mid-level trough axis will swing across the northern US and knock the ridge back down to our south and southwest. This trough axis will likely amplify and carve out a deeper eastern US trough while shifting the core of the upper level ridge back to the west. In this case, the Ohio Valley will remain in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft and will have to be vigilant of perturbations that ride down through the flow aloft which could bring multiple rounds of convection to the region by mid to late week. In terms of sensible weather, mainly dry conditions are expected Saturday and Saturday night. We`ll see a chance of storms Sunday and into Monday as a cold front crosses the region. A brief break of dry weather is likely for Tuesday and Wednesday before the first of several mid-level perturbations move toward the region. We should note that these perturbations are very difficult to predict, even in short range modeling, so confidence out toward the end of the period is pretty close to climatology at this point. The extended will start off warm with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Temperatures will come down a bit for Monday and Tuesday with highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s. Lower to middle 80s will be the rule for Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s are expected for Wed/Thur mornings. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Thunderstorms continue to push south, but one last round will affect BWG over the next hour or two. After this moves through, convection should come to an end at all sites for the night. Will then need to watch for fog and/or low stratus developing, as a cold front only slowly sags through the region. Given some gradient winds in place, have favored low stratus over fog, with IFR cigs possible early this morning at LEX and SDF. Otherwise, the daylight hours will feature high pressure building in from the northwest. This will turn winds around more to the northwest through the day today and also bring mostly clear skies by late this afternoon into this evening. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........EER Short Term.....MJ Long Term......MJ Aviation.......KJD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Surface analysis shows front still remains across portions of northern and central KY this afternoon. Therefore we do remain in a fairly warm and moist airmass this afternoon. Guidance shows a reasonable inversion remaining in place and this seems to be inhibiting any shower or storm development this afternoon. Also low stratus hung in across a good portion of eastern KY though the early afternoon. Did keep a isolated chance as some of the data suggested some omega in the layer as a weak wave passes through. What is left of the previously mentioned boundary is expected to progress south of the region tonight, as a surface high builds south and centers across the Mid Atlantic. The skies are expected to clear tonight as CU looses the diurnal heating. These skies will combine with low level moisture in place and inversion to lead to patchy and eventually areas of dense fog. Therefore will mention this in a HWO and hoist a SPS as well. In terms of models both the GFS/NAM soundings have this thought and therefore confidence is building. Overall upper level pattern we are expecting to see rising heights as upper level high begins pulling back to the east across. Therefore while the weak front drops south not much reprieve temp wise will be seen across the region, as the models show 591 height building northeast. While we do remain dry the temps are expected to climb into the upper 80s for Saturday. Saturday night we see clear skies and potential for valley fog, while surface high pressure skits the region. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper level ridge that has been in place over the southern CONUS for several days will finally start to break down on Sunday as a strong upper level low drags a cold front towards the region. This upper level low will track eastward along the US/Canadian border Sunday and Monday before lifting into the Eastern Canadian provinces. As this occurs, the trof will deepen and pass through the OH Valley Wednesday while nudging the ridge westward. Weak ridging will move into place on Wednesday before a quick moving shortwave enters East Kentucky Thursday evening. Confidence is low regarding this shortwave as the operational GFS and ECMWF differ in speed and placement. Decided to stay close to a general blend of model guidance in the late part of the period. At the surface, moisture and precipitation chances will increase Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the approaching cold frontal boundary. This boundary is progged to move through the region Sunday night into Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front during this time period. A few additional showers may be possible Tuesday evening as the trof axis passes by overhead. Cooler and drier air will then filter into Kentucky by Wednesday dropping dew points down into the 50s. This will feel much more comfortable than the past several days with 70 degree dew points. Dry weather will persist through Thursday morning before a quick moving low moves into East Kentucky Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Sites are beginning the TAF period in the VFR/MVFR range. While some sites do start the period MVFR chose to keep ceilings up given do not think the sites will prevail MVFR. Otherwise issue of the day will be any convection that can fire through the afternoon hours. Right now kept with previous forecast of VCTS mainly in the more eastern TAF sites. The latest WSR-88D radar data only shows a few small showers have been passing across the northern parts of eastern Kentucky. The skies are expected to clear out tonight, however the model soundings are in good agreement with low level moisture remaining in place. This moisture will be trapped under low level inversion, and this will lead to potential for dense fog overnight based on guidance and model soundings. Right now opted to go with most dense fog between 07Z and 13Z at all TAF sites. Overall winds will remain light unless perhaps you realize a isolate storm. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Surface analysis shows front still remains across portions of northern and central KY this afternoon. Therefore we do remain in a fairly warm and moist airmass this afternoon. Guidance shows a reasonable inversion remaining in place and this seems to be inhibiting any shower or storm development this afternoon. Also low stratus hung in across a good portion of eastern KY though the early afternoon. Did keep a isolated chance as some of the data suggested some omega in the layer as a weak wave passes through. What is left of the previously mentioned boundary is expected to progress south of the region tonight, as a surface high builds south and centers across the Mid Atlantic. The skies are expected to clear tonight as CU looses the diurnal heating. These skies will combine with low level moisture in place and inversion to lead to patchy and eventually areas of dense fog. Therefore will mention this in a HWO and hoist a SPS as well. In terms of models both the GFS/NAM soundings have this thought and therefore confidence is building. Overall upper level pattern we are expecting to see rising heights as upper level high begins pulling back to the east across. Therefore while the weak front drops south not much reprieve temp wise will be seen across the region, as the models show 591 height building northeast. While we do remain dry the temps are expected to climb into the upper 80s for Saturday. Saturday night we see clear skies and potential for valley fog, while surface high pressure skits the region. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper level ridge that has been in place over the southern CONUS for several days will finally start to break down on Sunday as a strong upper level low drags a cold front towards the region. This upper level low will track eastward along the US/Canadian border Sunday and Monday before lifting into the Eastern Canadian provinces. As this occurs, the trof will deepen and pass through the OH Valley Wednesday while nudging the ridge westward. Weak ridging will move into place on Wednesday before a quick moving shortwave enters East Kentucky Thursday evening. Confidence is low regarding this shortwave as the operational GFS and ECMWF differ in speed and placement. Decided to stay close to a general blend of model guidance in the late part of the period. At the surface, moisture and precipitation chances will increase Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the approaching cold frontal boundary. This boundary is progged to move through the region Sunday night into Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front during this time period. A few additional showers may be possible Tuesday evening as the trof axis passes by overhead. Cooler and drier air will then filter into Kentucky by Wednesday dropping dew points down into the 50s. This will feel much more comfortable than the past several days with 70 degree dew points. Dry weather will persist through Thursday morning before a quick moving low moves into East Kentucky Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Sites are beginning the TAF period in the VFR/MVFR range. While some sites do start the period MVFR chose to keep ceilings up given do not think the sites will prevail MVFR. Otherwise issue of the day will be any convection that can fire through the afternoon hours. Right now kept with previous forecast of VCTS mainly in the more eastern TAF sites. The latest WSR-88D radar data only shows a few small showers have been passing across the northern parts of eastern Kentucky. The skies are expected to clear out tonight, however the model soundings are in good agreement with low level moisture remaining in place. This moisture will be trapped under low level inversion, and this will lead to potential for dense fog overnight based on guidance and model soundings. Right now opted to go with most dense fog between 07Z and 13Z at all TAF sites. Overall winds will remain light unless perhaps you realize a isolate storm. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...DJ
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 248 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 A warm front draped across southeast Missouri into northwest Tennessee will remain fairly stationary tonight. Convection over southeast Missouri should decrease in coverage into the evening hours with the loss in heating. Models show the front moving back eastward very slowly Saturday into Saturday night. This will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances from southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois and far west Kentucky on Saturday, with another lull in activity Saturday night, then showers and storms will be possible across the entire PAH forecast area on Sunday. With our region in the warm sector and an approaching cold front, convection will have a little better chance of continuing into the overnight hours Sunday. With the warm front moving across the region early in the weekend, our respite from the uncomfortable humidity levels will be short lived. Dew points will climb back into the lower 70s across most of our region on Saturday and the entire area on Sunday. With high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range, heat indices will climb back into the 100 to 105 degree range across all but east and northeast portions of the PAH fa on Saturday, and across the entire area on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, at the start of the new workweek, with a frontal boundary draped along/in the vicinity of the Ohio River Valley. It encounters a still steamy/charged environment over our FA, from the weekend ridging/upper High. The models drive the front southward across the FA as waves of energy barrel around the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. As a result, we`ll see H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs, and this morning`s resolutions are no different. Where they do differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. But even this feature is markedly less so modeled today, by the GFS, vs yesterday same time. So we like the direction our collaborative agreement goes, minimizing or altogether eliminating Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night/Wed, with the broad blend of features consistently featuring cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame. With growing confidence, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, by Days 6-7, the models do insist upon diving a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A stray shower or storm is possible KCGI late in the TAF period, but chance is too low to include. Winds from the west/northwest at 5 to 10 kts will become light/calm overnight, then pick up from the south around 5 kts after 13z. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...RST
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 248 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 A warm front draped across southeast Missouri into northwest Tennessee will remain fairly stationary tonight. Convection over southeast Missouri should decrease in coverage into the evening hours with the loss in heating. Models show the front moving back eastward very slowly Saturday into Saturday night. This will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances from southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois and far west Kentucky on Saturday, with another lull in activity Saturday night, then showers and storms will be possible across the entire PAH forecast area on Sunday. With our region in the warm sector and an approaching cold front, convection will have a little better chance of continuing into the overnight hours Sunday. With the warm front moving across the region early in the weekend, our respite from the uncomfortable humidity levels will be short lived. Dew points will climb back into the lower 70s across most of our region on Saturday and the entire area on Sunday. With high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range, heat indices will climb back into the 100 to 105 degree range across all but east and northeast portions of the PAH fa on Saturday, and across the entire area on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, at the start of the new workweek, with a frontal boundary draped along/in the vicinity of the Ohio River Valley. It encounters a still steamy/charged environment over our FA, from the weekend ridging/upper High. The models drive the front southward across the FA as waves of energy barrel around the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. As a result, we`ll see H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs, and this morning`s resolutions are no different. Where they do differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. But even this feature is markedly less so modeled today, by the GFS, vs yesterday same time. So we like the direction our collaborative agreement goes, minimizing or altogether eliminating Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night/Wed, with the broad blend of features consistently featuring cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame. With growing confidence, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, by Days 6-7, the models do insist upon diving a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A stray shower or storm is possible KCGI late in the TAF period, but chance is too low to include. Winds from the west/northwest at 5 to 10 kts will become light/calm overnight, then pick up from the south around 5 kts after 13z. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...RST
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 328 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)... Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 ...Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight and Early Saturday Morning... Frontal boundary has not made much progress to the south today. This morning`s low clouds have mixed out, but have been replaced by a rather dense Cu field. Temperatures have warmed into the 80s, with the cool spots in the NE/E sections and the warmer spots residing in our southwestern areas. For the remainder of the afternoon, we expect generally partly cloudy skies with afternoon temps maxing out in the next 1-2 hours. This evening should be rather tranquil with temperatures falling into the upper 70s. For tonight, high pressure will nose into the region from the Great Lakes states. Drier air aloft will continue to push in while a shallow layer of dry air may push into southern Indiana. Model proximity soundings show a temperature inversion developing overnight which will likely trap moisture underneath. The combination of clear skies, light winds, and the inversion with moisture underneath will likely result in fog developing. At this time, it appears that patchy dense fog may be more common across southern Indiana and portions of northern KY. However, more widespread dense fog may develop across mainly southern KY. For now, plan on issuing a Special Weather Statement to heighten awareness of the fog potential overnight. Should conditions deteriorate more than forecast tonight, a Dense Fog Advisory may be required later tonight. Lows will range from 65 to 70 in most areas, a few of our typical cool spots may be slightly cooler. Dry conditions are expected across the region for Saturday. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. We may see a risk of an isolated shower or storm in the late afternoon across our southwest sections, though it appears convection may be more focused out in the I-24 corridor of west KY. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 ...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday and into Monday... ...Much Cooler Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week... Mid-level ridge axis will break down across the region late this weekend as a strong short wave trough moves through the northern US and southern Canada. This will drive a cold front through the region Sunday and into Monday. This should result in a round of showers and thunderstorms from late Sunday through the day on Monday. Combination of moderate instability along with good convergence along the boundary could result in some strong to possibly severe storms during that period. Main threats look to be damaging winds at this time. We plan on highlighting this threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. After the front goes through the region, we`ll see drier and cooler weather return to the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will be cooler with readings topping out in the mid-upper 80s, but Wednesday will be the coolest day with highs only reaching the upper 70s to around 80 in most areas. Dewpoints will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s which will be more refreshing than the low-mid 70s dewpoints that we`ve seen of late. The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part of the week. The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out west and a baggy trough axis in the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a notorious northwest flow. During this time, we`ll have to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge and then riding down into the Ohio Valley. While there has been a constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday, the models really struggle with these type flow regimes. Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Issued at 113 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Surface front has stalled and washed out across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Wind fields are light but moisture in the low- levels is quite high still despite some drying aloft. A broken to scattered MVFR deck around the area will gradually lift/scatter this afternoon. Expect VFR conditions this evening. The residual moisture and light/variable winds overnight will likely result in fog and/or stratus across the area, though probably not as widespread or thick as this morning. It will be slow to burn off again Saturday morning, but eventually VFR conditions will prevail through the day with light winds. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........MJ Long Term.........MJ Aviation..........ZT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1212 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 We are still dealing with some low stratus this morning, but we have seen some breaks on the vis sat. Do think we will see some gradual clearing through the afternoon. The 06z NAM forecast soundings seemed to have a decent handle on this thought. Then this afternoon a weak upper level wave is expected to ride through the area and could be enough to set off some storms mainly in the southeast. This seems to match up well with ensembles of CAM data. No major changes needed this update. Did freshen grids with latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper level ridge that has been in place over the southern CONUS for several days will finally start to break down on Sunday as a strong upper level low drags a cold front towards the region. This upper level low will track eastward along the US/Canadian border Sunday and Monday before lifting into the Eastern Canadian provinces. As this occurs, the trof will deepen and pass through the OH Valley Wednesday while nudging the ridge westward. Weak ridging will move into place on Wednesday before a quick moving shortwave enters East Kentucky Thursday evening. Confidence is low regarding this shortwave as the operational GFS and ECMWF differ in speed and placement. Decided to stay close to a general blend of model guidance in the late part of the period. At the surface, moisture and precipitation chances will increase Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the approaching cold frontal boundary. This boundary is progged to move through the region Sunday night into Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front during this time period. A few additional showers may be possible Tuesday evening as the trof axis passes by overhead. Cooler and drier air will then filter into Kentucky by Wednesday dropping dew points down into the 50s. This will feel much more comfortable than the past several days with 70 degree dew points. Dry weather will persist through Thursday morning before a quick moving low moves into East Kentucky Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Sites are beginning the TAF period in the VFR/MVFR range. While some sites do start the period MVFR chose to keep ceilings up given do not think the sites will prevail MVFR. Otherwise issue of the day will be any convection that can fire through the afternoon hours. Right now kept with previous forecast of VCTS mainly in the more eastern TAF sites. The latest WSR-88D radar data only shows a few small showers have been passing across the northern parts of eastern Kentucky. The skies are expected to clear out tonight, however the model soundings are in good agreement with low level moisture remaining in place. This moisture will be trapped under low level inversion, and this will lead to potential for dense fog overnight based on guidance and model soundings. Right now opted to go with most dense fog between 07Z and 13Z at all TAF sites. Overall winds will remain light unless perhaps you realize a isolate storm. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1212 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 We are still dealing with some low stratus this morning, but we have seen some breaks on the vis sat. Do think we will see some gradual clearing through the afternoon. The 06z NAM forecast soundings seemed to have a decent handle on this thought. Then this afternoon a weak upper level wave is expected to ride through the area and could be enough to set off some storms mainly in the southeast. This seems to match up well with ensembles of CAM data. No major changes needed this update. Did freshen grids with latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Sites are beginning the TAF period in the VFR/MVFR range. While some sites do start the period MVFR chose to keep ceilings up given do not think the sites will prevail MVFR. Otherwise issue of the day will be any convection that can fire through the afternoon hours. Right now kept with previous forecast of VCTS mainly in the more eastern TAF sites. The latest WSR-88D radar data only shows a few small showers have been passing across the northern parts of eastern Kentucky. The skies are expected to clear out tonight, however the model soundings are in good agreement with low level moisture remaining in place. This moisture will be trapped under low level inversion, and this will lead to potential for dense fog overnight based on guidance and model soundings. Right now opted to go with most dense fog between 07Z and 13Z at all TAF sites. Overall winds will remain light unless perhaps you realize a isolate storm. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1212 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 We are still dealing with some low stratus this morning, but we have seen some breaks on the vis sat. Do think we will see some gradual clearing through the afternoon. The 06z NAM forecast soundings seemed to have a decent handle on this thought. Then this afternoon a weak upper level wave is expected to ride through the area and could be enough to set off some storms mainly in the southeast. This seems to match up well with ensembles of CAM data. No major changes needed this update. Did freshen grids with latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Sites are beginning the TAF period in the VFR/MVFR range. While some sites do start the period MVFR chose to keep ceilings up given do not think the sites will prevail MVFR. Otherwise issue of the day will be any convection that can fire through the afternoon hours. Right now kept with previous forecast of VCTS mainly in the more eastern TAF sites. The latest WSR-88D radar data only shows a few small showers have been passing across the northern parts of eastern Kentucky. The skies are expected to clear out tonight, however the model soundings are in good agreement with low level moisture remaining in place. This moisture will be trapped under low level inversion, and this will lead to potential for dense fog overnight based on guidance and model soundings. Right now opted to go with most dense fog between 07Z and 13Z at all TAF sites. Overall winds will remain light unless perhaps you realize a isolate storm. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 121 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1119 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Frontal boundary still resides north of the region this morning as evidenced by surface wind observations and dewpoints. Drier air aloft is coming in and creating a bit of an inversion aloft which is trapping moisture in the low-levels. This combined with a bit of heating has led to more statocu developing across the region. For the next few hours, we`ll continue to see an influx of drier air eventually build into the region. However, until sufficient drier air and mixing take over, we`re going to see mostly cloudy skies with filtered sunshine. The clouds have kept temperatures down in the 70s this morning. Once we mix out some of these clouds temperatures will warm into the 80s this afternoon. On a side note, the building ridge that will move in later tonight and on Saturday will lead to some air stagnation across the region. This will result in higher concentrations of pollution across the metro area. The Louisville Air Pollution Control District has issued an Air Quality Alert for Saturday due to ozone. .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Issued at 113 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Surface front has stalled and washed out across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Wind fields are light but moisture in the low- levels is quite high still despite some drying aloft. A broken to scattered MVFR deck around the area will gradually lift/scatter this afternoon. Expect VFR conditions this evening. The residual moisture and light/variable winds overnight will likely result in fog and/or stratus across the area, though probably not as widespread or thick as this morning. It will be slow to burn off again Saturday morning, but eventually VFR conditions will prevail through the day with light winds. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........MJ Short Term.....13 Long Term......13 Aviation.......ZT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1205 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Bumped high temps down by several degrees over ozark foothills region due to persistent showers and cloud cover. May still be too optimistic in regards to recovery late this afternoon. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder should decrease in coverage and intensity thru mid to late afternoon in SEMO. Rest of the afternoon forecast is still on track with cooler and less humid conditions in place. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Today through tonight. VFR. Ocnl high clouds. Light winds. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...SP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1205 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Bumped high temps down by several degrees over ozark foothills region due to persistent showers and cloud cover. May still be too optimistic in regards to recovery late this afternoon. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder should decrease in coverage and intensity thru mid to late afternoon in SEMO. Rest of the afternoon forecast is still on track with cooler and less humid conditions in place. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Today through tonight. VFR. Ocnl high clouds. Light winds. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...SP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 1212 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1212 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 We are still dealing with some low stratus this morning, but we have seen some breaks on the vis sat. Do think we will see some gradual clearing through the afternoon. The 06z NAM forecast soundings seemed to have a decent handle on this thought. Then this afternoon a weak upper level wave is expected to ride through the area and could be enough to set off some storms mainly in the southeast. This seems to match up well with ensembles of CAM data. No major changes needed this update. Did freshen grids with latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 IFR/MVFR stratus will scatter out through 15z, with isolated to scattered convection threatening during the afternoon hours, mainly along a line from KSJS to KI35. Scattered to broken cumulus in the 3-5K feet AGL range will clear out tonight. Fog will develop across the area, with dense fog a good bet at most of the TAF sites at some point between 06 and 12z. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1120 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1119 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Frontal boundary still resides north of the region this morning as evidenced by surface wind observations and dewpoints. Drier air aloft is coming in and creating a bit of an inversion aloft which is trapping moisture in the low-levels. This combined with a bit of heating has led to more statocu developing across the region. For the next few hours, we`ll continue to see an influx of drier air eventually build into the region. However, until sufficient drier air and mixing take over, we`re going to see mostly cloudy skies with filtered sunshine. The clouds have kept temperatures down in the 70s this morning. Once we mix out some of these clouds temperatures will warm into the 80s this afternoon. On a side note, the building ridge that will move in later tonight and on Saturday will lead to some air stagnation across the region. This will result in higher concentrations of pollution across the metro area. The Louisville Air Pollution Control District has issued an Air Quality Alert for Saturday due to ozone. .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Surface cold front approaching the Ohio River this morning. Along it, some low stratus and fog has developed at SDF and LEX. Worst conditions (LIFR) are currently at SDF, but things should improve quickly this morning with daytime mixing. LEX should also improve quickly as clouds mix out. Otherwise, expect winds going more to the WNW today and skies clearing as the front moves through. May see some additional fog development tonight mainly at BWG, thus have put in some high-end MVFR vsbys for early tomorrow morning. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........MJ Short Term.....13 Long Term......13 Aviation.......KJD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 IFR/MVFR stratus will scatter out through 15z, with isolated to scattered convection threatening during the afternoon hours, mainly along a line from KSJS to KI35. Scattered to broken cumulus in the 3-5K feet AGL range will clear out tonight. Fog will develop across the area, with dense fog a good bet at most of the TAF sites at some point between 06 and 12z. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Freshened up the pops through early this morning. A few showers are already popping up near the Ohio River, closer to the surface boundary. Have increased pops in the north through this morning, before blending into the remaining forecast, which keeps pops more restricted to southeastern Kentucky for this afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 IFR/MVFR stratus will scatter out through 15z, with isolated to scattered convection threatening during the afternoon hours, mainly along a line from KSJS to KI35. Scattered to broken cumulus in the 3-5K feet AGL range will clear out tonight. Fog will develop across the area, with dense fog a good bet at most of the TAF sites at some point between 06 and 12z. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Today through tonight. VFR. Ocnl high clouds. Light winds. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Today through tonight. VFR. Ocnl high clouds. Light winds. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 648 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Surface cold front approaching the Ohio River this morning. Along it, some low stratus and fog has developed at SDF and LEX. Worst conditions (LIFR) are currently at SDF, but things should improve quickly this morning with daytime mixing. LEX should also improve quickly as clouds mix out. Otherwise, expect winds going more to the WNW today and skies clearing as the front moves through. May see some additional fog development tonight mainly at BWG, thus have put in some high-end MVFR vsbys for early tomorrow morning. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........13 Aviation..........KJD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Break in the humidity today with the frontal boundary ending up over SEMO for this afternoon. Just a slight chance of convection there, dry elsewhere. Slight convective chances shift slowly east tonight through Saturday. Better chances late Sunday into Sunday night as the next frontal boundary moves toward, and then into the area. Humidity will return to the SW 1/2 of the CWFA Saturday, then area wide Sunday, values 100 to 105. Model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. For temps, favor slightly warmer MAV/ECS MOS numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Pcpn will end rapidly at the beginning of the extended forecast period, as the medium range models are in reasonably good agreement that cooler, drier air will be sinking into the Quad State region on northerly winds Monday. However, the real push of refreshing summer air for us should occur beginning early Tuesday, as a lobe of mid level shortwave energy over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS swings through. The GFS continues to show a rather unlikely possibility of light pcpn associated with this secondary surge Tuesday, and is faster with the next chance of pcpn while other guidance is dry. We will keep a dry forecast through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the models start to differ a bit on the finer details of timing, but shower and tstm activity should be possible in the western half of southeastern MO, spreading eastward into most of the region by Wednesday night, and across the entire region by Thursday. This will be associated with mid level shortwave energy digging through the mean trof over the eastern CONUS. It does appear at this point that afternoon temps will drop to the lower half of the 80s by Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints as low as the middle 50s (north) by Wednesday. This will be much more pleasant than recent days, and certainly nice as we move into July. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF sites at this time, though tstm activity is expected to linger overnight in the Pennyrile region of KY just ahead of a southward-moving frontal boundary. By around sunrise, sometimes variable surface winds are expected to settle into a northerly direction and should remain below 10 kts. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. Overnight convection has gradually shifted south into the Tennessee Valley, with cloud tops generally warming. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Overall, the forcing will be weaker than we have seen recently, with shear and instability also less, keeping organized convection at bay. Still, with another day of good heating, expect a return of at least isolated to perhaps scattered convection across most locations during the day, with pops ending quickly into the evening. Highs will return to the 85 to 90 degree range, with dew points only a touch lower. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Tonight will feature clearing skies, and temperatures likely dipping below afternoon dew points, resulting in a foggy start to the weekend. Once the fog burns off Saturday morning, surface high pressure building to our northeast will allow for a better drop off in dew points by the afternoon hours. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure is forecast to briefly influence the weather of eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period this coming Sunday. The ridge will bring mostly clear skies and warm and dry weather to the area through the day on Sunday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift Sunday night, however, as a cold front slowly approaches the area from the west. The latest model blend suggests that this boundary will begin moving into eastern Kentucky late Sunday night, and will gradually make its way across area on Monday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front during its eastward trek. The best chances for storms will likely be from early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon during frontal passage. The boundary may stall out for a time just to our south from late Monday night into Tuesday evening, which would allow for showers and storms to linger along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Once the front finally moves off to our southeast Tuesday night, it appears that another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night. A second weather system may bring additional rain to the area Thursday and Friday, but there is enough uncertainty in the models to make this part of the forecast low confidence at this time. Temperatures during the period are expected to start off quite warm, with highs topping out around 90 on Sunday and in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before the front moves past. The rest of the upcoming work week will feature below normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, and around 80 to finish out the week. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with above normal lows on tap for Sunday and Monday mornings, followed by progressively cooler readings from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will wind down across the area through 09z. Clouds will gradually thin out, allowing for some lower MVFR/IFR stratus to form between 08 and 12z. KSYM looks to see this first, given the quicker clearing, with the rest of the sites succumbing from north to south through dawn. The stratus will scatter out between 14 and 16z, with at least some isolated convection likely threatening along a line from KSJS to KI35 during the afternoon hours. An upper level ridge will then build in, providing a couple of days of dry weather. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day on Friday, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 309 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Thunderstorms continue to push south, but one last round will affect BWG over the next hour or two. After this moves through, convection should come to an end at all sites for the night. Will then need to watch for fog and/or low stratus developing, as a cold front only slowly sags through the region. Given some gradient winds in place, have favored low stratus over fog, with IFR cigs possible early this morning at LEX and SDF. Otherwise, the daylight hours will feature high pressure building in from the northwest. This will turn winds around more to the northwest through the day today and also bring mostly clear skies by late this afternoon into this evening. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........13 Aviation..........KJD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 309 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday`s storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Though the front isn`t expected to do much today as it slides to the south, a shower or two isn`t out of the question, especially along and east of I-75 this morning. Also, a stray thunderstorm along the Tennessee border could pop up this afternoon. But, for all intents and purposes, it should be a dry day for most. High temperatures today should be a few degrees either side of 90, but with slightly lower humidity levels than what we have seen the past few days. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Though some drier dew points will filter in from the north, the expected clear skies and light winds atop soaked ground suggests that patchy fog could form around most of the area. Dense fog may even be a possibility in southern Kentucky by late tonight. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots. Saturday should be dry and warm with highs again around 90. An afternoon thunderstorm southwest of Bowling Green is possible, but will go with an optimistically dry forecast for now. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 For the bulk of the long term we will be trapped between upper ridging to our southwest and upper trofs to our northeast, resulting in a northwest flow regime for us. Often this means occasional thunderstorm chances as disturbances ride the flow into the eastern trof. These are notoriously difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence. However, this time there is the added benefit of a weak surface cold front passing through the region sometime during the Sun ngt/Mon time frame (quicker than previous model runs were showing). So, PoPs are best supported in conjunction with that front early in the week. Mid-week may dry out as high pressure crosses the area, though this notion may change in upcoming forecasts given the pattern. By Thursday the high will move off to the east and thunderstorms will be re-introduced to the forecast. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs of 90 to 95 while we are still under the edge of the southwestern upper ridge. For most of the work week, though, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year as the upper ridge backs off and troffing digs into the East. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Thunderstorms continue to push south, but one last round will affect BWG over the next hour or two. After this moves through, convection should come to an end at all sites for the night. Will then need to watch for fog and/or low stratus developing, as a cold front only slowly sags through the region. Given some gradient winds in place, have favored low stratus over fog, with IFR cigs possible early this morning at LEX and SDF. Otherwise, the daylight hours will feature high pressure building in from the northwest. This will turn winds around more to the northwest through the day today and also bring mostly clear skies by late this afternoon into this evening. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........13 Aviation..........KJD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will gradually wind down across eastern Kentucky through the overnight, as instability and forcing wane. Freshened up the pops through dawn, with a gradual decline continuing. Also added in some fog, although some low stratus also looks like a good bet towards dawn. Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 60s to around 70 through the rest of the night. UPDATE Issued at 933 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 With area really worked over now, at least where the tornado watch was, have opted to let the watch go as it expires at the top of the hour anyways. The severe thunderstorm watch will remain up for now as we still have some storm working across southern Kentucky. This watch may be able to go soon as convection slips south. Meanwhile, still watching some new development back across central Kentucky and its slow movement is allow for some modest rainfall rates. This will bare watching as it slowly shifts south and east over the next several hours. UPDATE Issued at 844 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Cancelled a portion of the flash flood watch for Fleming, Bath, Rowan, and Montgomery counties as radar trends are not supportive of heavy rain over the next several hours. Will keep the watch out farther south as there has been some redevelopment back to the west across central Kentucky and will be spreading southeast into eastern Kentucky over the next 3 to 4 hours. With the initial round of heavy rain, any additional rain could quickly lead to flash flooding, especially if storms start to train over the area. UPDATE Issued at 752 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Initial line of convection has evolved into linear bowing segments and continue to pose a damaging wind threat as it shifts south towards the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. Farther north, convection along main cold front has fallen apart and become less organized. We may be able to let the watch go across the north very soon if convection does not show more signs of organization. This is of course good news as much of the area has already seen decent rainfall and any more would lead increased flooding concerns. Also, since this activity is showing more signs of picking up speed, flood concerns are decreasing a bit. We may be able to trim back some of the flood watch in a bit as well if current trends hold. For now will hold the line with watches and see how things evolve in the next hour. UPDATE Issued at 650 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Currently, the line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are continuing to track south slowly. Some lingering instability over the far southern counties seems to be enough favorable environment to sustain severe convection over the south. Will be issuing a new ZFP to highlight this. UPDATE Issued at 1142 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Current surface analysis across the area features temperatures warming into the lower 80s and a vague but present outflow boundary across central eastern Kentucky. As well, a cold front is present to the northwest and will slowly be making a south and southeast approach. Clearing skies and increased heating through the early afternoon hours will allow for rapid destabilization this afternoon as cells develop ahead of the slowly dropping southeast cold front. The remnant outflow boundary across the area will further enhance convection as storms become organized and produce possible damaging winds and heavy rainfall. As the front slides south and becomes west to east across the area this evening, training of storms becomes possible and where repeated bouts of rain has fallen before, a decent flash flood threat is valid. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch until 8pm. This may need to be extended depending on how long the activity lasts into this evening.. UPDATE Issued at 708 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Convection that was over ILN and RLX has shifted southeast, with a area of showers and thunderstorms currently impacting the northern portion of the CWA. Luckily storms have weakened significantly, so there is no severe threat at this time. However it could be putting down some decent rains, which will be something to keep in mind for any storms that develop or move over the same location later in the day. Otherwise, forecast seems to be in good shape this morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the temp, dew point, and wind forecasts were in line with ongoing conditions. Grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web, though no changes are needed to the forecast package at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 403 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 An active start to the period is expected today, thanks to a center of low pressure currently traveling eastward across Indiana and Ohio. This will continue on a southeast track through the day, pulling a cold front southward into the state between 18 and 21Z. The cold front will then remain in place across the northern half of the state through at least 6z tonight (Friday) before finally slowly shifting southward through the southern portion of the CWA through the day Friday. Along and just south of the current cold front, a stout area of convection has set up, currently encompassing much of IN, OH, and northern WV. This convection is taking a southeastward track, following the best theta-e advection gradients. Based on the current radar trends, the current convection may pass just north of the CWA through the next few hours. However, as the low continues eastward and the cold front begins to sag farther south as we begin gaining daytime sunlight and heating, expect pops to begin shifting into our area. As such, included slight chances over the next couple of hours, with scattered pops by 12Z, slowly spreading southward through about noon. Latest hi-res models all seem to agree that convection will be more scattered in nature as it moves across eastern KY. However, with decent CAPE throughout the morning/early afternoon, and stout winds in the low, mid, and upper levels, any of these storms could still produce some severe potential, mainly in the form of strong to damaging winds. Between 18 and 21Z, the cold front will begin its descent into KY. This will correspond with best peak heating and afternoon instability. CAPE values will top out between 3.5k and 4.5k j/kg between 18 and 0z, with LIs still dropping to -10 to -12. DCAPE will even max out around 1.5k j/kg by 0Z this evening. This will therefore be our best chance for seeing more widespread severe potential, with damaging winds still the main concern. Pops will increase to numerous along the frontal boundary in our northern CWA between 18 and 21Z, then slowly spread southeastward throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Despite the lingering frontal boundary, the center of low pressure will continue shifting eastward, robbing best instability from the area for the latter half of the overnight. Still a bit concerned, however, about PWAT values and heavy rainfall through the overnight. Any storms during the day could put down torrential rainfall, which may lead to further flooding concerns. In a fortunate note, however, it looks like during most of the day today, most widespread rains will mainly affect the northern CWA, which hasn`t been quite as worked over from previous day`s storms. However, any training of storms could quickly cause problems. Unfortunately, PWATS will actually increase to over 2 inches (nearly 2.5 inches at SME!) between 0 and 6z this evening according to the latest NAM12 soundings. This is slightly higher than the GFS soundings, but even this model is still reading nearly 2 inches. Will need to continue to monitor storms into the overnight for potential flooding concerns. For Friday, the cold front will continue to weaken, having little affect on the state by this point. In fact, strong NW flow will take hold across much of the CWA north of the boundary, bringing much drier air into the region, and cutting off any remaining precip concerns for the day. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today with the NW flow in place, but will still achieve the mid and upper 80s by the afternoon, though with slightly less humidity. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Upper level ridge continues to build into the region through the first part of the forecast period. The next weather maker will be a weak frontal boundary that progresses SE into the region, and this will begin increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms late weekend into the first part of next week. The storms will wain some as we move into Tuesday, but additional storms are possible by Thursday as another upper level wave approaches. Model wise the the spaghetti plot shows that the guidance remains in good agreement. The upper level high will be well established across the lower MS River Valley. Guidance remains in good agreement with the ridging breaking down by mid week. The breakdown will lead to cooler temperatures by the time we get to mid and late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will wind down across the area through 09z. Clouds will gradually thin out, allowing for some lower MVFR/IFR stratus to form between 08 and 12z. KSYM looks to see this first, given the quicker clearing, with the rest of the sites succumbing from north to south through dawn. The stratus will scatter out between 14 and 16z, with at least some isolated convection likely threatening along a line from KSJS to KI35 during the afternoon hours. An upper level ridge will then build in, providing a couple of days of dry weather. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day on Friday, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will gradually wind down across eastern Kentucky through the overnight, as instability and forcing wane. Freshened up the pops through dawn, with a gradual decline continuing. Also added in some fog, although some low stratus also looks like a good bet towards dawn. Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 60s to around 70 through the rest of the night. UPDATE Issued at 933 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 With area really worked over now, at least where the tornado watch was, have opted to let the watch go as it expires at the top of the hour anyways. The severe thunderstorm watch will remain up for now as we still have some storm working across southern Kentucky. This watch may be able to go soon as convection slips south. Meanwhile, still watching some new development back across central Kentucky and its slow movement is allow for some modest rainfall rates. This will bare watching as it slowly shifts south and east over the next several hours. UPDATE Issued at 844 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Cancelled a portion of the flash flood watch for Fleming, Bath, Rowan, and Montgomery counties as radar trends are not supportive of heavy rain over the next several hours. Will keep the watch out farther south as there has been some redevelopment back to the west across central Kentucky and will be spreading southeast into eastern Kentucky over the next 3 to 4 hours. With the initial round of heavy rain, any additional rain could quickly lead to flash flooding, especially if storms start to train over the area. UPDATE Issued at 752 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Initial line of convection has evolved into linear bowing segments and continue to pose a damaging wind threat as it shifts south towards the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. Farther north, convection along main cold front has fallen apart and become less organized. We may be able to let the watch go across the north very soon if convection does not show more signs of organization. This is of course good news as much of the area has already seen decent rainfall and any more would lead increased flooding concerns. Also, since this activity is showing more signs of picking up speed, flood concerns are decreasing a bit. We may be able to trim back some of the flood watch in a bit as well if current trends hold. For now will hold the line with watches and see how things evolve in the next hour. UPDATE Issued at 650 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Currently, the line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are continuing to track south slowly. Some lingering instability over the far southern counties seems to be enough favorable environment to sustain severe convection over the south. Will be issuing a new ZFP to highlight this. UPDATE Issued at 1142 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Current surface analysis across the area features temperatures warming into the lower 80s and a vague but present outflow boundary across central eastern Kentucky. As well, a cold front is present to the northwest and will slowly be making a south and southeast approach. Clearing skies and increased heating through the early afternoon hours will allow for rapid destabilization this afternoon as cells develop ahead of the slowly dropping southeast cold front. The remnant outflow boundary across the area will further enhance convection as storms become organized and produce possible damaging winds and heavy rainfall. As the front slides south and becomes west to east across the area this evening, training of storms becomes possible and where repeated bouts of rain has fallen before, a decent flash flood threat is valid. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch until 8pm. This may need to be extended depending on how long the activity lasts into this evening.. UPDATE Issued at 708 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Convection that was over ILN and RLX has shifted southeast, with a area of showers and thunderstorms currently impacting the northern portion of the CWA. Luckily storms have weakened significantly, so there is no severe threat at this time. However it could be putting down some decent rains, which will be something to keep in mind for any storms that develop or move over the same location later in the day. Otherwise, forecast seems to be in good shape this morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the temp, dew point, and wind forecasts were in line with ongoing conditions. Grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web, though no changes are needed to the forecast package at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 403 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 An active start to the period is expected today, thanks to a center of low pressure currently traveling eastward across Indiana and Ohio. This will continue on a southeast track through the day, pulling a cold front southward into the state between 18 and 21Z. The cold front will then remain in place across the northern half of the state through at least 6z tonight (Friday) before finally slowly shifting southward through the southern portion of the CWA through the day Friday. Along and just south of the current cold front, a stout area of convection has set up, currently encompassing much of IN, OH, and northern WV. This convection is taking a southeastward track, following the best theta-e advection gradients. Based on the current radar trends, the current convection may pass just north of the CWA through the next few hours. However, as the low continues eastward and the cold front begins to sag farther south as we begin gaining daytime sunlight and heating, expect pops to begin shifting into our area. As such, included slight chances over the next couple of hours, with scattered pops by 12Z, slowly spreading southward through about noon. Latest hi-res models all seem to agree that convection will be more scattered in nature as it moves across eastern KY. However, with decent CAPE throughout the morning/early afternoon, and stout winds in the low, mid, and upper levels, any of these storms could still produce some severe potential, mainly in the form of strong to damaging winds. Between 18 and 21Z, the cold front will begin its descent into KY. This will correspond with best peak heating and afternoon instability. CAPE values will top out between 3.5k and 4.5k j/kg between 18 and 0z, with LIs still dropping to -10 to -12. DCAPE will even max out around 1.5k j/kg by 0Z this evening. This will therefore be our best chance for seeing more widespread severe potential, with damaging winds still the main concern. Pops will increase to numerous along the frontal boundary in our northern CWA between 18 and 21Z, then slowly spread southeastward throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Despite the lingering frontal boundary, the center of low pressure will continue shifting eastward, robbing best instability from the area for the latter half of the overnight. Still a bit concerned, however, about PWAT values and heavy rainfall through the overnight. Any storms during the day could put down torrential rainfall, which may lead to further flooding concerns. In a fortunate note, however, it looks like during most of the day today, most widespread rains will mainly affect the northern CWA, which hasn`t been quite as worked over from previous day`s storms. However, any training of storms could quickly cause problems. Unfortunately, PWATS will actually increase to over 2 inches (nearly 2.5 inches at SME!) between 0 and 6z this evening according to the latest NAM12 soundings. This is slightly higher than the GFS soundings, but even this model is still reading nearly 2 inches. Will need to continue to monitor storms into the overnight for potential flooding concerns. For Friday, the cold front will continue to weaken, having little affect on the state by this point. In fact, strong NW flow will take hold across much of the CWA north of the boundary, bringing much drier air into the region, and cutting off any remaining precip concerns for the day. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today with the NW flow in place, but will still achieve the mid and upper 80s by the afternoon, though with slightly less humidity. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Upper level ridge continues to build into the region through the first part of the forecast period. The next weather maker will be a weak frontal boundary that progresses SE into the region, and this will begin increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms late weekend into the first part of next week. The storms will wain some as we move into Tuesday, but additional storms are possible by Thursday as another upper level wave approaches. Model wise the the spaghetti plot shows that the guidance remains in good agreement. The upper level high will be well established across the lower MS River Valley. Guidance remains in good agreement with the ridging breaking down by mid week. The breakdown will lead to cooler temperatures by the time we get to mid and late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Isolated to scattered convection will wind down across the area through 09z. Clouds will gradually thin out, allowing for some lower MVFR/IFR stratus to form between 08 and 12z. KSYM looks to see this first, given the quicker clearing, with the rest of the sites succumbing from north to south through dawn. The stratus will scatter out between 14 and 16z, with at least some isolated convection likely threatening along a line from KSJS to KI35 during the afternoon hours. An upper level ridge will then build in, providing a couple of days of dry weather. Light southwest winds will gradually veer around to the west and eventually northwest through the day on Friday, peaking in the 5 to 10 kt range, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1245 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Updated aviation discussion only. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #290 has just been issued for southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky valid to 03Z. Storms have fired along a confluence zone, still ahead of the actual cold front, just to the east of Pike county and a few cells are trying to go into Warrick and Vanderburgh counties as of 1930Z. The storms will still be fighting a cap, and the westward extent of the development is uncertain. Given the instability available, any storms that can survive the cap could produce damaging winds and possibly some large hail. They will move to the east southeast, and should move fast enough to prevent much flash flood potential, but we will have to watch for training issues. The models continue to bring the front through the area tonight, and a small chance of thunderstorms will remain until the front has passed. They don`t push it far southwest of our Missouri counties and bring it back into western portions of our Missouri counties by midday Friday. This will result in a slight chance of storms over there and possibly into the Purchase area through the afternoon. While there will be some cooling, heat indices are still likely to reach 100 over southeast Missouri in the afternoon. Warm, moist advection in the low-levels will maintain a small chance of storms from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and west Kentucky Saturday. This activity will push northeast through the eastern portions of the region Saturday night. Severe weather is not anticipated Saturday. Much of the area will see heat indices around 100 Saturday, and some locations may touch 105. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, closing the weekend, with a broad circulation of High Pressure aloft, from the Lower Mississippi to the Tennessee Valley. The center of the H5 Anticyclone to our south is modeled from 593-595 DM, with 592 DM+ heights across the PAH FA, and the corresponding 1000-500 mb thickness field from 5770-5790 meters. We see also a warm/juicy tongue of high theta air drawn overtop the FA on lower trop swlys. The sum resultant effect looks like another oppressive heat index day, with pm peaks in the triple digits and knocking on the door of headline criteria for much of the FA. With that much heat/humidity in the lower trop, diurnally driven Pops cannot be ruled out, if they can bust thru the warm mid level cap. A feature that will aid that cap busting process soon comes into play, as a frontal boundary evolves and is driven southward toward the FA from the barrelling waves of energy rounding the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. Monday-Monday night, we see this energy spill southward, and H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs. Where they differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. We`d like to minimize or altogether eliminate Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night, with the broad blend of features showing slightly cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame, with collab adjustments if nec. Thus, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, on Wed, the models do dive a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast Wed-Thu. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF sites at this time, though tstm activity is expected to linger overnight in the Pennyrile region of KY just ahead of a southward-moving frontal boundary. By around sunrise, sometimes variable surface winds are expected to settle into a northerly direction and should remain below 10 kts. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1245 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Updated aviation discussion only. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #290 has just been issued for southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky valid to 03Z. Storms have fired along a confluence zone, still ahead of the actual cold front, just to the east of Pike county and a few cells are trying to go into Warrick and Vanderburgh counties as of 1930Z. The storms will still be fighting a cap, and the westward extent of the development is uncertain. Given the instability available, any storms that can survive the cap could produce damaging winds and possibly some large hail. They will move to the east southeast, and should move fast enough to prevent much flash flood potential, but we will have to watch for training issues. The models continue to bring the front through the area tonight, and a small chance of thunderstorms will remain until the front has passed. They don`t push it far southwest of our Missouri counties and bring it back into western portions of our Missouri counties by midday Friday. This will result in a slight chance of storms over there and possibly into the Purchase area through the afternoon. While there will be some cooling, heat indices are still likely to reach 100 over southeast Missouri in the afternoon. Warm, moist advection in the low-levels will maintain a small chance of storms from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and west Kentucky Saturday. This activity will push northeast through the eastern portions of the region Saturday night. Severe weather is not anticipated Saturday. Much of the area will see heat indices around 100 Saturday, and some locations may touch 105. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 We pick up the long term portion of the forecast, closing the weekend, with a broad circulation of High Pressure aloft, from the Lower Mississippi to the Tennessee Valley. The center of the H5 Anticyclone to our south is modeled from 593-595 DM, with 592 DM+ heights across the PAH FA, and the corresponding 1000-500 mb thickness field from 5770-5790 meters. We see also a warm/juicy tongue of high theta air drawn overtop the FA on lower trop swlys. The sum resultant effect looks like another oppressive heat index day, with pm peaks in the triple digits and knocking on the door of headline criteria for much of the FA. With that much heat/humidity in the lower trop, diurnally driven Pops cannot be ruled out, if they can bust thru the warm mid level cap. A feature that will aid that cap busting process soon comes into play, as a frontal boundary evolves and is driven southward toward the FA from the barrelling waves of energy rounding the base of the mean long wave H5 trof/storm system passing west to east thru the Canadian Great Lakes provinces. Monday-Monday night, we see this energy spill southward, and H5 heights drop almost 100 meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude. The models have been reasonably consistent in driving the surface boundary across (Monday) and south (Monday night) of the FA for the past several runs. Where they differ, the GFS hangs the 850-700 mb boundary, lagging behind, with seemingly overdone Pops lingering, particularly across our southern counties. We`d like to minimize or altogether eliminate Pops post (surface) frontal, from Mon night-Tue night, with the broad blend of features showing slightly cooler/drier/more stable columnar air taking over during that time frame, with collab adjustments if nec. Thus, Temps during the mid week return closer to seasonal norms, likewise humidity levels. However, on Wed, the models do dive a vigorous short wave of energy across the Missouri/middle-upper Mississippi river valley, warranting a reintro of Pops to close out the long term portion of the forecast Wed-Thu. Temps for days 5-7 still look to nicely hover in the 80s/60s range, providing a welcome prolonged respite from the recent extremes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF sites at this time, though tstm activity is expected to linger overnight in the Pennyrile region of KY just ahead of a southward-moving frontal boundary. By around sunrise, sometimes variable surface winds are expected to settle into a northerly direction and should remain below 10 kts. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 104 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1051 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Despite the multiple rounds of storms, instability persists across south central KY. This should continue to wane over the next couple of hours. Given that storms are ongoing and a few could still become strong, have extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 05Z across portions of central KY. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. Issued at 938 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Went ahead and let the Tornado Watch expire. Do not think we have any tornado threat left in the in that area, though a strong storm with pea size hail and 40 mph winds is not out of the question. Have trimmed back some of the counties in the Severe Thunderstorm Watch as the front is moving into the area. The rest of the Severe Watch remains, though the main threat for severe weather will be across south central KY. May have to extend the Watch in that area for an hour or so depending on how quickly the storms move out over the next hour. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)... Issued at 351 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 ...ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING... Early afternoon satellite imagery reveals partly to mostly sunny skies across the region. Convection along a frontal boundary has rapidly developed over the last hour or so. The atmosphere is highly unstable this afternoon with CAPE readings in the 3-4K J/Kg range and LI`s dipping down into the -8 to -10 deg C range. We still do have a slight cap, although very weak at this point, across much of north-central KY as evidenced by AMDAR soundings out of KSDF. As we continue to heat up over the next few hours, we`ll remove that cap/inversion and continued upscale growth of convection along the boundary will continue. Overall kinematic and thermodynamic profiles across the western 2/3rds of our region are suggestive of severe weather with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. High PWATs of greater than 2 inches combined with the instability will also allow these storms to load up on precip leading to the possibility of damaging downbursts. In areas along and east of I-65 and along and north of I-64, bulk shear values increase a bit as one heads north and east. Model proximity soundings in these areas show a bit more of directional shear. Thus, a threat of an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out. Coordination calls with SPC have yielded two watch boxes in our area. The first is a Tornado Watch that is in effect for our far eastern Bluegrass counties. This is an area characterized by an unstable atmosphere and higher values of speed and directional shear. Further west a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the remainder of the CWA. Primary hazards out in this area are damaging winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall. However, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out given that we do have some weaker shear in the area. Torrential rainfall will be possible with the storms as PWAT values are over 2 inches. The progressive nature of the storms look to limit the flash flood threat. However, areas that receive repeated rainfall episodes could see some localized flooding. In terms of sensible weather, line of storms across southern Indiana will continue to develop and drop southward into KY late this afternoon and evening. They will likely impact the Louisville metro area over the next 60-90 minutes and then into the Lexington metro area between 500-700 PM eastern time. We expect the storms to drop east-southeast through the evening. Should we get a cold pool to develop, then these storms will translate south and east at a faster rate. The storms should make it into southern KY by mid-late evening before weakening. Temperatures this afternoon will remain in the lower 90s and then cool into the upper 70s to the lower 80s after the storms pass. Some temperature recovery may occur after the storms, but overnight temps are expected to bottom out in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Drier and more tranquil weather are expected for Friday and Friday night. Highs Friday should warm into the upper 80s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 An upper level ridge will try and build into the region over the weekend. However, the ridge will not last all that long as a strong mid-level trough axis will swing across the northern US and knock the ridge back down to our south and southwest. This trough axis will likely amplify and carve out a deeper eastern US trough while shifting the core of the upper level ridge back to the west. In this case, the Ohio Valley will remain in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft and will have to be vigilant of perturbations that ride down through the flow aloft which could bring multiple rounds of convection to the region by mid to late week. In terms of sensible weather, mainly dry conditions are expected Saturday and Saturday night. We`ll see a chance of storms Sunday and into Monday as a cold front crosses the region. A brief break of dry weather is likely for Tuesday and Wednesday before the first of several mid-level perturbations move toward the region. We should note that these perturbations are very difficult to predict, even in short range modeling, so confidence out toward the end of the period is pretty close to climatology at this point. The extended will start off warm with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Temperatures will come down a bit for Monday and Tuesday with highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s. Lower to middle 80s will be the rule for Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s are expected for Wed/Thur mornings. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Thunderstorms continue to push south, but one last round will affect BWG over the next hour or two. After this moves through, convection should come to an end at all sites for the night. Will then need to watch for fog and/or low stratus developing, as a cold front only slowly sags through the region. Given some gradient winds in place, have favored low stratus over fog, with IFR cigs possible early this morning at LEX and SDF. Otherwise, the daylight hours will feature high pressure building in from the northwest. This will turn winds around more to the northwest through the day today and also bring mostly clear skies by late this afternoon into this evening. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........EER Short Term.....MJ Long Term......MJ Aviation.......KJD