Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/17/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1035 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Aviation Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016

High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less
humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and
more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong
cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area
Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler
conditions by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 918 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016

Quite a bit of lower cloud cover upstream over the southern Great
Lakes and northern Indiana. This has been moving south with time. Will
go more pessimistic on the cloud cover tonight.

Previous discussion follows.

Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon
with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake.
Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken
stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z
temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash
Valley.

Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper
low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over
across the region with a surface ridge building in.

Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast
half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper
low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH
progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to
the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of
drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low
tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly
to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing
overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other
than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will
continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph.
Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest
the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a
steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night.

Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is
brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the
stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s
and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well
with low level thermals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016

Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will
be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear
skies and warm temperatures.

Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively
deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level
heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper
low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the
Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the
surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow
on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air
back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week.

Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model
soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and
convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be
a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper
moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant
sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term.
An outstanding weekend by all accounts.

Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the
period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level
thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising
into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to
climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general
humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long
term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow.

Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in.
Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A
cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this
looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves
that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any
Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on.
Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the
week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 170600Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016

MVFR Ceilings at times KIND
and KLAF overnight. Otherwise...VFR.

High pressuer over the western great lakes will build southeast
towards northern Indiana. Area of MVFR Ceilings over the northern
half Indiana will reach KLAF and KIND. But subsidence may limit it
from reaching KHUF and KBMG TAF sites.  Will keep them VFR Ceilings
overnight.  Model soundings indicate clouds will scatter out towards
daybreak and then becoming mostly clear later Friday as high
pressure builds into the area.

Have backed off on the fog as some wind will remain overnight and
temperature dewpoint depressions not that close.

Winds will be from the north to northeast 5 to 10 knots overnight
and Friday becoming light Friday night.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JH/JP



Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1035 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 918 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quite a bit of lower cloud cover upstream over the southern Great Lakes and northern Indiana. This has been moving south with time. Will go more pessimistic on the cloud cover tonight. Previous discussion follows. Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 170300Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 1035 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions. No other changes are needed at this time. Previous aviation discussion follows... A brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KIND and KLAF towards midnight. Otherwise...VFR. Low perssure was over the appalachians...while high pressure was over the upper midwest. The high pressure system will build southeast across the great lakes and northern Indiana by Friday. Weather depiction indicated some MVFR ceilings or lower over northern Indiana and this will spread south some overnight...before dississipating late tonight as drier air moves in. Expect mostly VFR ceilings at KIND...KLAF and scattered clouds around 4 thousand feet at KHUF and KBMG overnight. Will mention tempo 2 thousand broken for a few hours around or a few hours after midnight. Drier air works in later tonight and clouds scatter out with mostly clear conditions by the end of the period. Could see some MVFR fog in outlying TAF sites late tonight. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will decrease to 8 knots or less and become north overnight and northeast around 8 knots Friday. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1035 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 918 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quite a bit of lower cloud cover upstream over the southern Great Lakes and northern Indiana. This has been moving south with time. Will go more pessimistic on the cloud cover tonight. Previous discussion follows. Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 170300Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 1035 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions. No other changes are needed at this time. Previous aviation discussion follows... A brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KIND and KLAF towards midnight. Otherwise...VFR. Low perssure was over the appalachians...while high pressure was over the upper midwest. The high pressure system will build southeast across the great lakes and northern Indiana by Friday. Weather depiction indicated some MVFR ceilings or lower over northern Indiana and this will spread south some overnight...before dississipating late tonight as drier air moves in. Expect mostly VFR ceilings at KIND...KLAF and scattered clouds around 4 thousand feet at KHUF and KBMG overnight. Will mention tempo 2 thousand broken for a few hours around or a few hours after midnight. Drier air works in later tonight and clouds scatter out with mostly clear conditions by the end of the period. Could see some MVFR fog in outlying TAF sites late tonight. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will decrease to 8 knots or less and become north overnight and northeast around 8 knots Friday. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...JH
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1027 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1020 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Low clouds, fog and drizzle will persist across southeast lower Michigan to northeast Indiana through the early morning. As high pressure builds across the Great Lakes Friday, skies will clear. Warmer conditions are in store for Friday and Saturday with low humidity levels. The next chance of rain will be late Monday or Tuesday as another cold front approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday in advance of this front. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures on Friday will reach into the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Primary short term forecast concern will be on lingering shower potential, mainly across far east/northeast through early evening. An upper level low centered across southeast lower Michigan will continue to drop southeast this evening across northern Ohio. Bulk of convection with lead strong vort lobe is beginning to initiate across northeast Ohio and will not pose any risk for local area. However, a secondary low level trough axis associated with this system will drop across the southern Great Lakes this evening. Scattered showers are associated with this trough across southeast lower Michigan with a few isolated storms. While cannot completely rule out an isolated storm across extreme northeast over next hour or two, may be able to remove this mention entirely with the late afternoon forecast with instability of any note east of the area. Confidence in how long to hang out at least isolated shower mention across NW Ohio this evening is low with deformation forcing potentially lagging into the 02Z-03Z timeframe. Otherwise, with strongest upper forcing/low level CAA shifting east of the area this evening, should tend to see a fairly high diurnal dependence to more substantial low cloud cover, trending to partly cloudy/clear for most locations by late evening. Gradient should remain somewhat modest overnight and expecting enough low level mixing to prevent temps from bottoming out too much, generally from mid 50s to lower 60s. Sfc anticyclone to slide eastward across the Great Lakes for Friday locking the local area into an extended period of northeast flow into the weekend. This should keep humidity levels on the low side through Saturday. Despite only a modest modification of the air mass for Friday, nearly full insolation should allow for highs around 80, or into the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quiet conditions to continue through the Friday night through most of Monday period as broad high pressure slowly retreats to the eastern seaboard. Return southwesterly flow Monday will begin advect more substantial low level moisture into the area, although flow trajectories with aforementioned eastern anticyclone should result in deeper moisture circumnavigating the area into the Plains/Upper Midwest. Medium range models have been fairly consistent over past several runs in advertising more substantial upper trough eventually dampening central CONUS ridge and driving frontal boundary southward across the area late Monday/Tuesday. Have stayed close to previous forecast in ramping up to mid/high chance PoPs Monday night/Tuesday to account for this feature. Early indications would suggest frontal convergence may maximize north/northwest of the area Monday night with some enhancement by stronger low level jet axis. Difficult at this time to gage any potential strong/severe risk as deeper moisture may be confined to fairly narrow frontal corridor, and also some question as to potential of unfavorable timing of frontal passage late Monday night/Tuesday morning. Frontal convergence also may tend to weaken with southward extent. Otherwise, Monday should shape up to be the warmest day of the period ahead of the front, cooling back to near seasonal or slightly below seasonal norms toward end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 1020 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 IFR/LIFR conditions will persist along/close to Lake Michigan through the early morning. Northeasterly flow will keep the moisture trapped along the boundarly layer frontal boundary that extends from KVPZ-KASW-KAOH. Widespread IFR/MVFR cigs and vsby south of this line will gradually erode before 12Z. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM CDT Friday for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT Friday for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lewis SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...Lewis Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 918 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 918 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quite a bit of lower cloud cover upstream over the southern Great Lakes and northern Indiana. This has been moving south with time. Will go more pessimistic on the cloud cover tonight. Previous discussion follows. Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 170000Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KIND and KLAF towards midnight. Otherwise...VFR. Low perssure was over the appalachians...while high pressure was over the upper midwest. The high pressure system will build southeast across the great lakes and northern Indiana by Friday. Weather depiction indicated some MVFR ceilings or lower over northern Indiana and this will spread south some overnight...before dississipating late tonight as drier air moves in. Expect mostly VFR ceilings at KIND...KLAF and scattered clouds around 4 thousand feet at KHUF and KBMG overnight. Will mention tempo 2 thousand broken for a few hours around or a few hours after midnight. Drier air works in later tonight and clouds scatter out with mostly clear conditions by the end of the period. Could see some MVFR fog in outlying TAF sites late tonight. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will decrease to 8 knots or less and become north overnight and northeast around 8 knots Friday. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 720 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 170000Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KIND and KLAF towards midnight. Otherwise...VFR. Low perssure was over the appalachians...while high pressure was over the upper midwest. The high pressure system will build southeast across the great lakes and northern Indiana by Friday. Weather depiction indicated some MVFR ceilings or lower over northern Indiana and this will spread south some overnight...before dississipating late tonight as drier air moves in. Expect mostly VFR ceilings at KIND...KLAF and scattered clouds around 4 thousand feet at KHUF and KBMG overnight. Will mention tempo 2 thousand broken for a few hours around or a few hours after midnight. Drier air works in later tonight and clouds scatter out with mostly clear conditions by the end of the period. Could see some MVFR fog in outlying TAF sites late tonight. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will decrease to 8 knots or less and become north overnight and northeast around 8 knots Friday. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 720 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A slow moving upper level disturbance may result in a few showers across southeast lower Michigan, far northeast Indiana, and northwest Ohio this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for tonight with decreasing clouds expected as a ridge of high pressure begins to build across the Great Lakes. Warmer conditions are in store for Friday and Saturday with low humidity levels. The next chance of rain will be late Monday or Tuesday as another cold front approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday in advance of this front. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures on Friday will reach into the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Primary short term forecast concern will be on lingering shower potential, mainly across far east/northeast through early evening. An upper level low centered across southeast lower Michigan will continue to drop southeast this evening across northern Ohio. Bulk of convection with lead strong vort lobe is beginning to initiate across northeast Ohio and will not pose any risk for local area. However, a secondary low level trough axis associated with this system will drop across the southern Great Lakes this evening. Scattered showers are associated with this trough across southeast lower Michigan with a few isolated storms. While cannot completely rule out an isolated storm across extreme northeast over next hour or two, may be able to remove this mention entirely with the late afternoon forecast with instability of any note east of the area. Confidence in how long to hang out at least isolated shower mention across NW Ohio this evening is low with deformation forcing potentially lagging into the 02Z-03Z timeframe. Otherwise, with strongest upper forcing/low level CAA shifting east of the area this evening, should tend to see a fairly high diurnal dependence to more substantial low cloud cover, trending to partly cloudy/clear for most locations by late evening. Gradient should remain somewhat modest overnight and expecting enough low level mixing to prevent temps from bottoming out too much, generally from mid 50s to lower 60s. Sfc anticyclone to slide eastward across the Great Lakes for Friday locking the local area into an extended period of northeast flow into the weekend. This should keep humidity levels on the low side through Saturday. Despite only a modest modification of the air mass for Friday, nearly full insolation should allow for highs around 80, or into the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quiet conditions to continue through the Friday night through most of Monday period as broad high pressure slowly retreats to the eastern seaboard. Return southwesterly flow Monday will begin advect more substantial low level moisture into the area, although flow trajectories with aforementioned eastern anticyclone should result in deeper moisture circumnavigating the area into the Plains/Upper Midwest. Medium range models have been fairly consistent over past several runs in advertising more substantial upper trough eventually dampening central CONUS ridge and driving frontal boundary southward across the area late Monday/Tuesday. Have stayed close to previous forecast in ramping up to mid/high chance PoPs Monday night/Tuesday to account for this feature. Early indications would suggest frontal convergence may maximize north/northwest of the area Monday night with some enhancement by stronger low level jet axis. Difficult at this time to gage any potential strong/severe risk as deeper moisture may be confined to fairly narrow frontal corridor, and also some question as to potential of unfavorable timing of frontal passage late Monday night/Tuesday morning. Frontal convergence also may tend to weaken with southward extent. Otherwise, Monday should shape up to be the warmest day of the period ahead of the front, cooling back to near seasonal or slightly below seasonal norms toward end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 713 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Stratus...fog and patchy drizzle will persist through midnight before gradually dissipating overnight. The boundary layer trof is the focus of weak isentropic assent region and this has created widespread IFR conditions near Lake Michigan, to MVFR conditions from near KVPZ-KASW-KGWB-KDFI and south. This boundary is also the focus of a weak surface pressure gradient and has produced periodic wind gusts. Partial clearing will occur after 05Z and then more improvement before 15Z. Likewise winds will begin to decrease significantly between 00-05Z. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 AM CDT Friday for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Friday for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...Lewis Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 432 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 162100Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 432 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions. No other changes are needed at this time. Previous aviation discussion follows... A period of MVFR conditions possible overnight, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Gusty winds this afternoon. Area of clouds across northern Indiana back into Wisconsin will rotate southeast into mainly the northern sites this afternoon. These should remain VFR. Looks like lower conditions will develop overnight with lingering low level moisture behind a departing upper level system. Consensus of most models is for conditions to remain MVFR or higher in stratocumulus or fog, so put this in the forecast. Conditions should quickly improve Friday morning, with VFR expected thereafter. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...50/JH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 344 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A slow moving upper level disturbance may result in a few showers across southeast lower Michigan, far northeast Indiana, and northwest Ohio this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for tonight with decreasing clouds expected as a ridge of high pressure begins to build across the Great Lakes. Warmer conditions are in store for Friday and Saturday with low humidity levels. The next chance of rain will be late Monday or Tuesday as another cold front approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday in advance of this front. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures on Friday will reach into the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Primary short term forecast concern will be on lingering shower potential, mainly across far east/northeast through early evening. An upper level low centered across southeast lower Michigan will continue to drop southeast this evening across northern Ohio. Bulk of convection with lead strong vort lobe is beginning to initiate across northeast Ohio and will not pose any risk for local area. However, a secondary low level trough axis associated with this system will drop across the southern Great Lakes this evening. Scattered showers are associated with this trough across southeast lower Michigan with a few isolated storms. While cannot completely rule out an isolated storm across extreme northeast over next hour or two, may be able to remove this mention entirely with the late afternoon forecast with instability of any note east of the area. Confidence in how long to hang out at least isolated shower mention across NW Ohio this evening is low with deformation forcing potentially lagging into the 02Z-03Z timeframe. Otherwise, with strongest upper forcing/low level CAA shifting east of the area this evening, should tend to see a fairly high diurnal dependence to more substantial low cloud cover, trending to partly cloudy/clear for most locations by late evening. Gradient should remain somewhat modest overnight and expecting enough low level mixing to prevent temps from bottoming out too much, generally from mid 50s to lower 60s. Sfc anticyclone to slide eastward across the Great Lakes for Friday locking the local area into an extended period of northeast flow into the weekend. This should keep humidity levels on the low side through Saturday. Despite only a modest modification of the air mass for Friday, nearly full insolation should allow for highs around 80, or into the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quiet conditions to continue through the Friday night through most of Monday period as broad high pressure slowly retreats to the eastern seaboard. Return southwesterly flow Monday will begin advect more substantial low level moisture into the area, although flow trajectories with aforementioned eastern anticyclone should result in deeper moisture circumnavigating the area into the Plains/Upper Midwest. Medium range models have been fairly consistent over past several runs in advertising more substantial upper trough eventually dampening central CONUS ridge and driving frontal boundary southward across the area late Monday/Tuesday. Have stayed close to previous forecast in ramping up to mid/high chance PoPs Monday night/Tuesday to account for this feature. Early indications would suggest frontal convergence may maximize north/northwest of the area Monday night with some enhancement by stronger low level jet axis. Difficult at this time to gage any potential strong/severe risk as deeper moisture may be confined to fairly narrow frontal corridor, and also some question as to potential of unfavorable timing of frontal passage late Monday night/Tuesday morning. Frontal convergence also may tend to weaken with southward extent. Otherwise, Monday should shape up to be the warmest day of the period ahead of the front, cooling back to near seasonal or slightly below seasonal norms toward end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Clouds will continue to rotate around low pressure currently near KDTW. MVFR/IFR conditions have been impacting KSBN for several hours and upstream trends suggest this lasting through late afternoon before loss of limited heating and drier air all allow clouds to slowly break up. At KFWA...low clouds have struggled more but should fill in to bring at least a period of MVFR cigs through around 00z. Some light showers/pockets of drizzle have been observed that quickly drop visibility for a few minutes. Coverage is sparse and quick enough that it isn`t worth placing in TAFs. At least partial clearing should take places after 00z...which could bring a risk of some ground fog later tonight. Given what may be patchy nature have backed away from predominant mvfr vsby and went with tempo at both sites later tonight. No issues expected on Friday. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 AM CDT Friday for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Friday for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...Fisher Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 344 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A slow moving upper level disturbance may result in a few showers across southeast lower Michigan, far northeast Indiana, and northwest Ohio this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for tonight with decreasing clouds expected as a ridge of high pressure begins to build across the Great Lakes. Warmer conditions are in store for Friday and Saturday with low humidity levels. The next chance of rain will be late Monday or Tuesday as another cold front approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday in advance of this front. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures on Friday will reach into the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Primary short term forecast concern will be on lingering shower potential, mainly across far east/northeast through early evening. An upper level low centered across southeast lower Michigan will continue to drop southeast this evening across northern Ohio. Bulk of convection with lead strong vort lobe is beginning to initiate across northeast Ohio and will not pose any risk for local area. However, a secondary low level trough axis associated with this system will drop across the southern Great Lakes this evening. Scattered showers are associated with this trough across southeast lower Michigan with a few isolated storms. While cannot completely rule out an isolated storm across extreme northeast over next hour or two, may be able to remove this mention entirely with the late afternoon forecast with instability of any note east of the area. Confidence in how long to hang out at least isolated shower mention across NW Ohio this evening is low with deformation forcing potentially lagging into the 02Z-03Z timeframe. Otherwise, with strongest upper forcing/low level CAA shifting east of the area this evening, should tend to see a fairly high diurnal dependence to more substantial low cloud cover, trending to partly cloudy/clear for most locations by late evening. Gradient should remain somewhat modest overnight and expecting enough low level mixing to prevent temps from bottoming out too much, generally from mid 50s to lower 60s. Sfc anticyclone to slide eastward across the Great Lakes for Friday locking the local area into an extended period of northeast flow into the weekend. This should keep humidity levels on the low side through Saturday. Despite only a modest modification of the air mass for Friday, nearly full insolation should allow for highs around 80, or into the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quiet conditions to continue through the Friday night through most of Monday period as broad high pressure slowly retreats to the eastern seaboard. Return southwesterly flow Monday will begin advect more substantial low level moisture into the area, although flow trajectories with aforementioned eastern anticyclone should result in deeper moisture circumnavigating the area into the Plains/Upper Midwest. Medium range models have been fairly consistent over past several runs in advertising more substantial upper trough eventually dampening central CONUS ridge and driving frontal boundary southward across the area late Monday/Tuesday. Have stayed close to previous forecast in ramping up to mid/high chance PoPs Monday night/Tuesday to account for this feature. Early indications would suggest frontal convergence may maximize north/northwest of the area Monday night with some enhancement by stronger low level jet axis. Difficult at this time to gage any potential strong/severe risk as deeper moisture may be confined to fairly narrow frontal corridor, and also some question as to potential of unfavorable timing of frontal passage late Monday night/Tuesday morning. Frontal convergence also may tend to weaken with southward extent. Otherwise, Monday should shape up to be the warmest day of the period ahead of the front, cooling back to near seasonal or slightly below seasonal norms toward end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Clouds will continue to rotate around low pressure currently near KDTW. MVFR/IFR conditions have been impacting KSBN for several hours and upstream trends suggest this lasting through late afternoon before loss of limited heating and drier air all allow clouds to slowly break up. At KFWA...low clouds have struggled more but should fill in to bring at least a period of MVFR cigs through around 00z. Some light showers/pockets of drizzle have been observed that quickly drop visibility for a few minutes. Coverage is sparse and quick enough that it isn`t worth placing in TAFs. At least partial clearing should take places after 00z...which could bring a risk of some ground fog later tonight. Given what may be patchy nature have backed away from predominant mvfr vsby and went with tempo at both sites later tonight. No issues expected on Friday. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 AM CDT Friday for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Friday for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...Fisher Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 300 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 161800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A period of MVFR conditions possible overnight, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Gusty winds this afternoon. Area of clouds across northern Indiana back into Wisconsin will rotate southeast into mainly the northern sites this afternoon. These should remain VFR. Looks like lower conditions will develop overnight with lingering low level moisture behind a departing upper level system. Consensus of most models is for conditions to remain MVFR or higher in stratocumulus or fog, so put this in the forecast. Conditions should quickly improve Friday morning, with VFR expected thereafter. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 218 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 161800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A period of MVFR conditions possible overnight, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Gusty winds this afternoon. Area of clouds across northern Indiana back into Wisconsin will rotate southeast into mainly the northern sites this afternoon. These should remain VFR. Looks like lower conditions will develop overnight with lingering low level moisture behind a departing upper level system. Consensus of most models is for conditions to remain MVFR or higher in stratocumulus or fog, so put this in the forecast. Conditions should quickly improve Friday morning, with VFR expected thereafter. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 218 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 161800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A period of MVFR conditions possible overnight, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Gusty winds this afternoon. Area of clouds across northern Indiana back into Wisconsin will rotate southeast into mainly the northern sites this afternoon. These should remain VFR. Looks like lower conditions will develop overnight with lingering low level moisture behind a departing upper level system. Consensus of most models is for conditions to remain MVFR or higher in stratocumulus or fog, so put this in the forecast. Conditions should quickly improve Friday morning, with VFR expected thereafter. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 132 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cooler air will continue to filter into the area today behind a cool front. The combination of this cool front and an upper level disturbance will produce isolated to scattered showers along with an outside chance of an isolated thunderstorm today. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the 60s across southwest lower Michigan to the mid 70s across central Indiana. Tonight, expect decreasing clouds and lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Otherwise, hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan through tonight. Dangerous waves and currents will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Scattered showers have developed across southern lower Michigan and far northern Indiana this morning at leading edge of a pocket of stronger upper level vorticity advection. While forcing is fairly strong, instability is quite limited with weak mid level lapse rates atop diurnally steeping low level lapse rates. Would expect bulk of scattered showers to progress from northwest to southeast across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio through mid afternoon following this stronger forcing. Additional isolated- scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms may linger into this afternoon/early evening across extreme northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio based on the track of the upper low. Onset of cold advection and increasing low clouds should keep temperatures in check with very little movement from current readings through the remainder of the day. Updated zones sent to tweak sky cover/PoP to account for current trends but any changes were minor and previous forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Short term forecast concerns focus on hazardous marine conditions and chances for showers and t-storms this afternoon. A potent upper level low/associated 50 knot jet streak will sink southeastward towards the east coast through tonight. As a result, the CWA will be under cyclonic flow aloft/CAA, with the cold front drifting southeastward through the day. The best forcing for precipitation is in the morning, then we are under large scale subsidence with the building ridge aloft. Think we`ll see a few rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms-with the best chances to the north and east through today. In the wake of the surface cold front, which is at the doorstep of our western CWA as of 08z, we`ll see cooler and less humid conditions. Highs today will only reach into the upper 60s and 70s, with a few areas further south reaching near 80. Additionally, strong northwest winds of 15-25 knots will lead to wave heights of 3- 6 feet on Lake Michigan, approaching within 30 degrees of normal to shore. Wave periods will also lengthen to nearly 6 seconds by the end of the day. These conditions will favor strong rip current development at Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong north to south longshore currents are expect in areas that see a more northerly wave angle of approach, which will result in strong structural currents on the north sides of piers and breakwalls. Conditions will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. As a result, a beach hazards statement/small craft advisory is in effect until late tonight. Moderate swim risk conditions will continue into Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies tonight, with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Friday into Sunday will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Great Lakes region. High temps will quickly moderate into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday, with partly to mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Monday afternoon into Tuesday we are under more zonal flow aloft, and a surface cold front extending from a surface low over Ontario/Quebec will cross the region. This will bring chances for showers and storms. Another weak shortwave will cross the CWA Wednesday before high pressure returns. Kept chance/slight chance pops Mon afternoon-Wednesday as a result. With high pressure arriving for Thursday, expect dry and pleasant weather. Highs Monday will be in the 80s, but behind Tuesday`s cold front highs will only reach into the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Clouds will continue to rotate around low pressure currently near KDTW. MVFR/IFR conditions have been impacting KSBN for several hours and upstream trends suggest this lasting through late afternoon before loss of limited heating and drier air all allow clouds to slowly break up. At KFWA...low clouds have struggled more but should fill in to bring at least a period of MVFR cigs through around 00z. Some light showers/pockets of drizzle have been observed that quickly drop visibility for a few minutes. Coverage is sparse and quick enough that it isn`t worth placing in TAFs. At least partial clearing should take places after 00z...which could bring a risk of some ground fog later tonight. Given what may be patchy nature have backed away from predominant mvfr vsby and went with tempo at both sites later tonight. No issues expected on Friday. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...Fisher Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1251 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 161800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A period of MVFR conditions possible overnight, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Gusty winds this afternoon. Area of clouds across northern Indiana back into Wisconsin will rotate southeast into mainly the northern sites this afternoon. These should remain VFR. Looks like lower conditions will develop overnight with lingering low level moisture behind a departing upper level system. Consensus of most models is for conditions to remain MVFR or higher in stratocumulus or fog, so put this in the forecast. Conditions should quickly improve Friday morning, with VFR expected thereafter. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM/50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1119 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cooler air will continue to filter into the area today behind a cool front. The combination of this cool front and an upper level disturbance will produce isolated to scattered showers along with an outside chance of an isolated thunderstorm today. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the 60s across southwest lower Michigan to the mid 70s across central Indiana. Tonight, expect decreasing clouds and lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Otherwise, hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan through tonight. Dangerous waves and currents will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Scattered showers have developed across southern lower Michigan and far northern Indiana this morning at leading edge of a pocket of stronger upper level vorticity advection. While forcing is fairly strong, instability is quite limited with weak mid level lapse rates atop diurnally steeping low level lapse rates. Would expect bulk of scattered showers to progress from northwest to southeast across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio through mid afternoon following this stronger forcing. Additional isolated- scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms may linger into this afternoon/early evening across extreme northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio based on the track of the upper low. Onset of cold advection and increasing low clouds should keep temperatures in check with very little movement from current readings through the remainder of the day. Updated zones sent to tweak sky cover/PoP to account for current trends but any changes were minor and previous forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Short term forecast concerns focus on hazardous marine conditions and chances for showers and t-storms this afternoon. A potent upper level low/associated 50 knot jet streak will sink southeastward towards the east coast through tonight. As a result, the CWA will be under cyclonic flow aloft/CAA, with the cold front drifting southeastward through the day. The best forcing for precipitation is in the morning, then we are under large scale subsidence with the building ridge aloft. Think we`ll see a few rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms-with the best chances to the north and east through today. In the wake of the surface cold front, which is at the doorstep of our western CWA as of 08z, we`ll see cooler and less humid conditions. Highs today will only reach into the upper 60s and 70s, with a few areas further south reaching near 80. Additionally, strong northwest winds of 15-25 knots will lead to wave heights of 3- 6 feet on Lake Michigan, approaching within 30 degrees of normal to shore. Wave periods will also lengthen to nearly 6 seconds by the end of the day. These conditions will favor strong rip current development at Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong north to south longshore currents are expect in areas that see a more northerly wave angle of approach, which will result in strong structural currents on the north sides of piers and breakwalls. Conditions will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. As a result, a beach hazards statement/small craft advisory is in effect until late tonight. Moderate swim risk conditions will continue into Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies tonight, with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Friday into Sunday will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Great Lakes region. High temps will quickly moderate into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday, with partly to mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Monday afternoon into Tuesday we are under more zonal flow aloft, and a surface cold front extending from a surface low over Ontario/Quebec will cross the region. This will bring chances for showers and storms. Another weak shortwave will cross the CWA Wednesday before high pressure returns. Kept chance/slight chance pops Mon afternoon-Wednesday as a result. With high pressure arriving for Thursday, expect dry and pleasant weather. Highs Monday will be in the 80s, but behind Tuesday`s cold front highs will only reach into the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cdfnt contg to move east across nrn IN early this morning. Diurnal stabilization should result in a dry fropa at FWA this morning. Low level moisture wrapping around deepening low movg se across MI should spread low clouds over the area this morning with mvfr cigs expected, clearing out this evening as ridge builds in and cyclonic low level flow wanes. A few post frontal shra psbl in ne IN this aftn but point pops too low to mention in tafs. Post frontal nw winds expected to gust 20-25kt today. Some br psbl tonight, otrws mainly vfr conditions expected after low clouds scatter out. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1119 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cooler air will continue to filter into the area today behind a cool front. The combination of this cool front and an upper level disturbance will produce isolated to scattered showers along with an outside chance of an isolated thunderstorm today. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the 60s across southwest lower Michigan to the mid 70s across central Indiana. Tonight, expect decreasing clouds and lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Otherwise, hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan through tonight. Dangerous waves and currents will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Scattered showers have developed across southern lower Michigan and far northern Indiana this morning at leading edge of a pocket of stronger upper level vorticity advection. While forcing is fairly strong, instability is quite limited with weak mid level lapse rates atop diurnally steeping low level lapse rates. Would expect bulk of scattered showers to progress from northwest to southeast across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio through mid afternoon following this stronger forcing. Additional isolated- scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms may linger into this afternoon/early evening across extreme northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio based on the track of the upper low. Onset of cold advection and increasing low clouds should keep temperatures in check with very little movement from current readings through the remainder of the day. Updated zones sent to tweak sky cover/PoP to account for current trends but any changes were minor and previous forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Short term forecast concerns focus on hazardous marine conditions and chances for showers and t-storms this afternoon. A potent upper level low/associated 50 knot jet streak will sink southeastward towards the east coast through tonight. As a result, the CWA will be under cyclonic flow aloft/CAA, with the cold front drifting southeastward through the day. The best forcing for precipitation is in the morning, then we are under large scale subsidence with the building ridge aloft. Think we`ll see a few rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms-with the best chances to the north and east through today. In the wake of the surface cold front, which is at the doorstep of our western CWA as of 08z, we`ll see cooler and less humid conditions. Highs today will only reach into the upper 60s and 70s, with a few areas further south reaching near 80. Additionally, strong northwest winds of 15-25 knots will lead to wave heights of 3- 6 feet on Lake Michigan, approaching within 30 degrees of normal to shore. Wave periods will also lengthen to nearly 6 seconds by the end of the day. These conditions will favor strong rip current development at Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong north to south longshore currents are expect in areas that see a more northerly wave angle of approach, which will result in strong structural currents on the north sides of piers and breakwalls. Conditions will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. As a result, a beach hazards statement/small craft advisory is in effect until late tonight. Moderate swim risk conditions will continue into Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies tonight, with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Friday into Sunday will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Great Lakes region. High temps will quickly moderate into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday, with partly to mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Monday afternoon into Tuesday we are under more zonal flow aloft, and a surface cold front extending from a surface low over Ontario/Quebec will cross the region. This will bring chances for showers and storms. Another weak shortwave will cross the CWA Wednesday before high pressure returns. Kept chance/slight chance pops Mon afternoon-Wednesday as a result. With high pressure arriving for Thursday, expect dry and pleasant weather. Highs Monday will be in the 80s, but behind Tuesday`s cold front highs will only reach into the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cdfnt contg to move east across nrn IN early this morning. Diurnal stabilization should result in a dry fropa at FWA this morning. Low level moisture wrapping around deepening low movg se across MI should spread low clouds over the area this morning with mvfr cigs expected, clearing out this evening as ridge builds in and cyclonic low level flow wanes. A few post frontal shra psbl in ne IN this aftn but point pops too low to mention in tafs. Post frontal nw winds expected to gust 20-25kt today. Some br psbl tonight, otrws mainly vfr conditions expected after low clouds scatter out. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1024 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 161500z TAF Update/... Issued at 1024 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Made some minor adjustments to the TAF, but no significant changes. Still looks like a VFR cloud deck will arrive early this afternoon. Winds are already coming around to northwest, and they will become gusty. Previous discussion follows... VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. High pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM/50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1024 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 161500z TAF Update/... Issued at 1024 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Made some minor adjustments to the TAF, but no significant changes. Still looks like a VFR cloud deck will arrive early this afternoon. Winds are already coming around to northwest, and they will become gusty. Previous discussion follows... VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. High pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM/50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 955 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/1200z TAFS Issuance/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. High pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 955 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/1200z TAFS Issuance/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. High pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 657 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 An upper wave will swing through Michigan to Ohio today and a cold front will move through central Indiana. There will be little forcing over the area from these features, however, and time heights show a pretty dry column. Think the northeast counties could see a good increase in cloud cover from stratocu as the front and upper wave move through, and can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle in that area, but for the most part think the dry air wins out and results in a dry forecast. Lapse rates in the northeast don`t look as good this set of model runs and thus removed even the slight chance to leave a dry forecast with mostly cloudy skies developing in the northeast during the afternoon and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. For temperatures think consensus numbers in the low 80s north to around 90 south look good with cold front moving through during the day and upper wave ushering in cooler and drier air as the day wears on. Based on forecast soundings, expect to see wind gusts around 20-30 mph develop by afternoon and stick around through sunset. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/1200z TAFS Issuance/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. Hig pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 657 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 An upper wave will swing through Michigan to Ohio today and a cold front will move through central Indiana. There will be little forcing over the area from these features, however, and time heights show a pretty dry column. Think the northeast counties could see a good increase in cloud cover from stratocu as the front and upper wave move through, and can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle in that area, but for the most part think the dry air wins out and results in a dry forecast. Lapse rates in the northeast don`t look as good this set of model runs and thus removed even the slight chance to leave a dry forecast with mostly cloudy skies developing in the northeast during the afternoon and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. For temperatures think consensus numbers in the low 80s north to around 90 south look good with cold front moving through during the day and upper wave ushering in cooler and drier air as the day wears on. Based on forecast soundings, expect to see wind gusts around 20-30 mph develop by afternoon and stick around through sunset. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/1200z TAFS Issuance/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. Hig pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 657 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 An upper wave will swing through Michigan to Ohio today and a cold front will move through central Indiana. There will be little forcing over the area from these features, however, and time heights show a pretty dry column. Think the northeast counties could see a good increase in cloud cover from stratocu as the front and upper wave move through, and can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle in that area, but for the most part think the dry air wins out and results in a dry forecast. Lapse rates in the northeast don`t look as good this set of model runs and thus removed even the slight chance to leave a dry forecast with mostly cloudy skies developing in the northeast during the afternoon and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. For temperatures think consensus numbers in the low 80s north to around 90 south look good with cold front moving through during the day and upper wave ushering in cooler and drier air as the day wears on. Based on forecast soundings, expect to see wind gusts around 20-30 mph develop by afternoon and stick around through sunset. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/1200z TAFS Issuance/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. Hig pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 657 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 An upper wave will swing through Michigan to Ohio today and a cold front will move through central Indiana. There will be little forcing over the area from these features, however, and time heights show a pretty dry column. Think the northeast counties could see a good increase in cloud cover from stratocu as the front and upper wave move through, and can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle in that area, but for the most part think the dry air wins out and results in a dry forecast. Lapse rates in the northeast don`t look as good this set of model runs and thus removed even the slight chance to leave a dry forecast with mostly cloudy skies developing in the northeast during the afternoon and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. For temperatures think consensus numbers in the low 80s north to around 90 south look good with cold front moving through during the day and upper wave ushering in cooler and drier air as the day wears on. Based on forecast soundings, expect to see wind gusts around 20-30 mph develop by afternoon and stick around through sunset. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/1200z TAFS Issuance/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. Hig pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 646 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A cold front will cross through the forecast area today, bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs only reaching into the 60s and 70s in the north. Areas south of US 24 will see highs approaching 80F. Tonight, expect decreasing clouds and lows in the 50s and 60s. Otherwise, hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan through tonight. Dangerous waves and currents will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Short term forecast concerns focus on hazardous marine conditions and chances for showers and t-storms this afternoon. A potent upper level low/associated 50 knot jet streak will sink southeastward towards the east coast through tonight. As a result, the CWA will be under cyclonic flow aloft/CAA, with the cold front drifting southeastward through the day. The best forcing for precipitation is in the morning, then we are under large scale subsidence with the building ridge aloft. Think we`ll see a few rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms-with the best chances to the north and east through today. In the wake of the surface cold front, which is at the doorstep of our western CWA as of 08z, we`ll see cooler and less humid conditions. Highs today will only reach into the upper 60s and 70s, with a few areas further south reaching near 80. Additionally, strong northwest winds of 15-25 knots will lead to wave heights of 3- 6 feet on Lake Michigan, approaching within 30 degrees of normal to shore. Wave periods will also lengthen to nearly 6 seconds by the end of the day. These conditions will favor strong rip current development at Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong north to south longshore currents are expect in areas that see a more northerly wave angle of approach, which will result in strong structural currents on the north sides of piers and breakwalls. Conditions will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. As a result, a beach hazards statement/small craft advisory is in effect until late tonight. Moderate swim risk conditions will continue into Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies tonight, with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Friday into Sunday will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Great Lakes region. High temps will quickly moderate into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday, with partly to mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Monday afternoon into Tuesday we are under more zonal flow aloft, and a surface cold front extending from a surface low over Ontario/Quebec will cross the region. This will bring chances for showers and storms. Another weak shortwave will cross the CWA Wednesday before high pressure returns. Kept chance/slight chance pops Mon afternoon-Wednesday as a result. With high pressure arriving for Thursday, expect dry and pleasant weather. Highs Monday will be in the 80s, but behind Tuesday`s cold front highs will only reach into the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cdfnt contg to move east across nrn IN early this morning. Diurnal stabilization should result in a dry fropa at FWA this morning. Low level moisture wrapping around deepening low movg se across MI should spread low clouds over the area this morning with mvfr cigs expected, clearing out this evening as ridge builds in and cyclonic low level flow wanes. A few post frontal shra psbl in ne IN this aftn but point pops too low to mention in tafs. Post frontal nw winds expected to gust 20-25kt today. Some br psbl tonight, otrws mainly vfr conditions expected after low clouds scatter out. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 646 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A cold front will cross through the forecast area today, bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs only reaching into the 60s and 70s in the north. Areas south of US 24 will see highs approaching 80F. Tonight, expect decreasing clouds and lows in the 50s and 60s. Otherwise, hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan through tonight. Dangerous waves and currents will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Short term forecast concerns focus on hazardous marine conditions and chances for showers and t-storms this afternoon. A potent upper level low/associated 50 knot jet streak will sink southeastward towards the east coast through tonight. As a result, the CWA will be under cyclonic flow aloft/CAA, with the cold front drifting southeastward through the day. The best forcing for precipitation is in the morning, then we are under large scale subsidence with the building ridge aloft. Think we`ll see a few rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms-with the best chances to the north and east through today. In the wake of the surface cold front, which is at the doorstep of our western CWA as of 08z, we`ll see cooler and less humid conditions. Highs today will only reach into the upper 60s and 70s, with a few areas further south reaching near 80. Additionally, strong northwest winds of 15-25 knots will lead to wave heights of 3- 6 feet on Lake Michigan, approaching within 30 degrees of normal to shore. Wave periods will also lengthen to nearly 6 seconds by the end of the day. These conditions will favor strong rip current development at Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong north to south longshore currents are expect in areas that see a more northerly wave angle of approach, which will result in strong structural currents on the north sides of piers and breakwalls. Conditions will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. As a result, a beach hazards statement/small craft advisory is in effect until late tonight. Moderate swim risk conditions will continue into Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies tonight, with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Friday into Sunday will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Great Lakes region. High temps will quickly moderate into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday, with partly to mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Monday afternoon into Tuesday we are under more zonal flow aloft, and a surface cold front extending from a surface low over Ontario/Quebec will cross the region. This will bring chances for showers and storms. Another weak shortwave will cross the CWA Wednesday before high pressure returns. Kept chance/slight chance pops Mon afternoon-Wednesday as a result. With high pressure arriving for Thursday, expect dry and pleasant weather. Highs Monday will be in the 80s, but behind Tuesday`s cold front highs will only reach into the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cdfnt contg to move east across nrn IN early this morning. Diurnal stabilization should result in a dry fropa at FWA this morning. Low level moisture wrapping around deepening low movg se across MI should spread low clouds over the area this morning with mvfr cigs expected, clearing out this evening as ridge builds in and cyclonic low level flow wanes. A few post frontal shra psbl in ne IN this aftn but point pops too low to mention in tafs. Post frontal nw winds expected to gust 20-25kt today. Some br psbl tonight, otrws mainly vfr conditions expected after low clouds scatter out. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 420 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A cold front will cross through the forecast area today, bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs only reaching into the 60s and 70s in the north. Areas south of US 24 will see highs approaching 80F. Tonight, expect decreasing clouds and lows in the 50s and 60s. Otherwise, hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan through tonight. Dangerous waves and currents will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Short term forecast concerns focus on hazardous marine conditions and chances for showers and t-storms this afternoon. A potent upper level low/associated 50 knot jet streak will sink southeastward towards the east coast through tonight. As a result, the CWA will be under cyclonic flow aloft/CAA, with the cold front drifting southeastward through the day. The best forcing for precipitation is in the morning, then we are under large scale subsidence with the building ridge aloft. Think we`ll see a few rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms-with the best chances to the north and east through today. In the wake of the surface cold front, which is at the doorstep of our western CWA as of 08z, we`ll see cooler and less humid conditions. Highs today will only reach into the upper 60s and 70s, with a few areas further south reaching near 80. Additionally, strong northwest winds of 15-25 knots will lead to wave heights of 3- 6 feet on Lake Michigan, approaching within 30 degrees of normal to shore. Wave periods will also lengthen to nearly 6 seconds by the end of the day. These conditions will favor strong rip current development at Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong north to south longshore currents are expect in areas that see a more northerly wave angle of approach, which will result in strong structural currents on the north sides of piers and breakwalls. Conditions will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. As a result, a beach hazards statement/small craft advisory is in effect until late tonight. Moderate swim risk conditions will continue into Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies tonight, with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Friday into Sunday will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Great Lakes region. High temps will quickly moderate into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday, with partly to mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Monday afternoon into Tuesday we are under more zonal flow aloft, and a surface cold front extending from a surface low over Ontario/Quebec will cross the region. This will bring chances for showers and storms. Another weak shortwave will cross the CWA Wednesday before high pressure returns. Kept chance/slight chance pops Mon afternoon-Wednesday as a result. With high pressure arriving for Thursday, expect dry and pleasant weather. Highs Monday will be in the 80s, but behind Tuesday`s cold front highs will only reach into the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 145 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cdfnt will move across nrn IN this morning. Tstms along the front over srn MI should remain n-ne of the terminals with a dry fropa expected at both sbn and fwa. Post frontal stratus with mvfr/ifr cigs expected to overspread the area this morning as cyclonic flow strengthens behind the front in association with deepening sfc low. These low cigs should cont this aftn before drier air moves in this evening scattering clouds out. NW winds expected to gust into the 20- 25kt range today. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 346 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 An upper wave will swing through Michigan to Ohio today and a cold front will move through central Indiana. There will be little forcing over the area from these features, however, and time heights show a pretty dry column. Think the northeast counties could see a good increase in cloud cover from stratocu as the front and upper wave move through, and can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle in that area, but for the most part think the dry air wins out and results in a dry forecast. Lapse rates in the northeast don`t look as good this set of model runs and thus removed even the slight chance to leave a dry forecast with mostly cloudy skies developing in the northeast during the afternoon and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. For temperatures think consensus numbers in the low 80s north to around 90 south look good with cold front moving through during the day and upper wave ushering in cooler and drier air as the day wears on. Based on forecast soundings, expect to see wind gusts around 20-30 mph develop by afternoon and stick around through sunset. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/0600Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1148 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Skies will remain clear through the night. The SREF suggests a very low chance of fog, however, GFS LAMP suggests a slightly better chance that the smaller airports could see some MVFR fog 09z-12z. Looking at the latest dew point spreads, winds and where the thunderstorms hit earlier, BMG seems to be the site most likely to see fog. Added a tempo 3sm there 09z-12z Later today, an upper trough will drop southeast over northeastern Indiana. Cu development progs suggest scattered to broken diurnal cu with bases around 4k feet. IND and LAF should see more cloud cover compared to HUF and BMG. Wind will be southwest and south less than 10 knots overnight and become northwest 11z-14z as the cold front moves through from the northwest. Wind speeds will increase to around 12 knots in the wake of the front with gusts to around 20 knots after 17z. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...MK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 326 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 An upper low could bring a small chance for a thunderstorm in the northeast Thursday but will also serve to usher in cooler drier air for Friday. The weekend should be dry with increasing temperatures and humidity returns to end the weekend and start the work week. An approaching frontal system will bring more thunderstorm chances Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 907 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Diffuse frontal zone appears to be located over eastern Illinois at this time. This boundary should work its way across the local area tonight, reaching the eastern border around 161200Z based off of model data. Air mass has been worked over due to earlier convection, so additional development tonight doesn`t seem too likely with the better forcing over the Great Lakes. Will hang onto some small chance PoPs for a couple more hours, around 160300Z, then will go dry the rest of the night. Convective outflows have resulted in current readings close to forecast lows. Will nudge the lows down a category. Previous discussion follows. Severe Thunderstorm Watch at the outset. Expect a downward trend in convection early tonight as a weak upper trough exits the area to the southeast...taking the bulk of the precipitation southeast of the forecast area. Thus, lowered POPs for this evening after 00z and diminished precip quicker than the previous forecast...matching better with our neighbors and short-range model solutions. && .SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 The shortwave trough that is currently rounding the top of the upper ridge over the center part of the country...will dive southeast across the western Great Lakes and into the Ohio River Valley on Thursday. Decided to hold on to slight chance POP over the northwest as this feature impacts the area. After the upper trough pushes off to the mid-Atlantic states Thursday night and Friday our weather becomes fairly quiet...with the upper ridge over the Great Plains beginning to pivot and build our direction Friday through the remainder of the timeframe. So, expect a brief cool down behind the departing shortwave on Friday as well as dry conditions and clearing skies...leading to mostly clear skies and warming temperatures to start the weekend. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/0600Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1148 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Skies will remain clear through the night. The SREF suggests a very low chance of fog, however, GFS LAMP suggests a slightly better chance that the smaller airports could see some MVFR fog 09z-12z. Looking at the latest dew point spreads, winds and where the thunderstorms hit earlier, BMG seems to be the site most likely to see fog. Added a tempo 3sm there 09z-12z Later today, an upper trough will drop southeast over northeastern Indiana. Cu development progs suggest scattered to broken diurnal cu with bases around 4k feet. IND and LAF should see more cloud cover compared to HUF and BMG. Wind will be southwest and south less than 10 knots overnight and become northwest 11z-14z as the cold front moves through from the northwest. Wind speeds will increase to around 12 knots in the wake of the front with gusts to around 20 knots after 17z. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...MRD/JAS SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...MK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 147 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 859 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Widely scattered showers will remain possible through the early evening, mainly along and southeast of US-24. Cooler air will work in later tonight into Thursday behind a cold front which may generate a few showers. Lows tonight will drop into the 60s, with highs on Thursday ranging between the mid 70s and low 80s. Fair weather conditions are then expected Friday into the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds in. && .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Widely scattered showers on northern fringe of outflow bubble near the Fort Wayne area will continue to weaken/fall apart early this evening...leaving a mainly dry/quiet night for most. Convection across east-central/northeast WI on leading edge of a vigorous upper level circulation/cold front will continue east into MI along instability gradient tonight. This activity may clip our far northern zones by the early overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Near term convective trends will be the main item of interest for the short term period. Cu has become increasingly agitated across the area this morning as influences from shallow morning outflow have diminished. A rather sharp instability gradient exists across the area with 100 mb MLCAPES maximized across southwest portions of the forecast area at 2500 J/KG per SPC mesoanalysis. This seems to correlate fairly well to modified regional AMDAR soundings of comparable instability magnitude early this afternoon. A low amplitude short wave is also impinging on northwest Indiana at current time and should aid in convective initiation over next 1-2 hours. Enhanced westerly flow off lake Michigan appears to have set up a couple of favored enhanced cumulus bands just south of Route 6 corridor which also may grow into isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon. Not much has changed in terms of nature of severe threat, with moderate to strong instability and weak to moderate shear still pointing toward at least an isolated severe potential in the 20Z-01Z timeframe as aforementioned wave tracks across the area during peak instability. The greatest risk of a severe thunderstorm late afternoon/early evening appears to be generally along and south of the Route 24 corridor. A secondary area of possible concern may need to be monitored for late evening/early portions of overnight as additional clusters of storms are expected to develop across central Wisconsin this afternoon downstream of increasing diffluence with potent upper low/upper jet streak. These storms may evolve into a convective cluster, but still a good deal of uncertainty as to propagation of these storms. With greater MUCAPES likely centered across southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, would suspect some concurrent upwind/downwind propagation is possible with potential upstream WI convection this evening. Still possible that far northern locations could be clipped by southern extent of this convection late evening/overnight, with some gusty winds as the main threat. Upper low will shift southeast across the region on Thursday with strongest synoptic forcing across eastern half in the morning, where have maintained low to mid chance PoPs. Otherwise, Thursday will feature increasing northwest winds as cool front track across the area with mainly dry conditions developing across entire CWA in the afternoon. Exception could be across the far east, where some deformation-forced showers could linger into Thursday evening. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 The Friday through Sunday period should feature mainly dry conditions as rather stagnant and amplifying longwave pattern allows sfc high pressure to remain anchored across the region. It still appears as though a stronger upper wave will dampen central CONUS upper ridge early next week driving next cool front southward. Until this time, temperatures will gradually moderate through the weekend with highs back around 90 for Sunday/Monday. The end of the period should feature a transition back to more seasonable temperatures behind this front. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 145 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cdfnt will move across nrn IN this morning. Tstms along the front over srn MI should remain n-ne of the terminals with a dry fropa expected at both sbn and fwa. Post frontal stratus with mvfr/ifr cigs expected to overspread the area this morning as cyclonic flow strengthens behind the front in association with deepening sfc low. These low cigs should cont this aftn before drier air moves in this evening scattering clouds out. NW winds expected to gust into the 20- 25kt range today. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Steinwedel SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 427 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 420 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Skies will continue to clear today as high pressure builds across the Upper Great Lakes region. Warmer conditions are in store through this weekend with modest humidity levels. The next chance of rain will be late Monday or Monday night as another cold front approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday in advance of this front. Low temperatures tonight will be around 60 degrees. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 420 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 An upper low over east Ohio was moving out of the region early this morning. Much drier air was spreading into the area from the north behind this system. Skies will continue to clear early this morning as drier air combines with subsidence to bring sunny skies. Temperatures should be able to dip into the 50s tonight with a cool northeast flow. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 419 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Temperatures will be warming again this weekend as return flow becomes established. Kept storms out of the forecast through Sunday. The latest NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings support a substantial subsidence inversion base with very warm mid level temperatures. The relatively dry atmosphere with precipitation below the 50 percentile and nothing to focus or force convection should prevent storm formation. A cold front will move south across the area about Monday night. Still some question concerning storm coverage given at least initially warm mid level temperatures. Precipitable water values increase substantially and should be enough for at least a broken line of storms over northern areas. Have raised storm chances a little in line with the latest model blend. Otherwise, a large negative height anomaly will become established briefly over the forecast area during the middle of next week. Cooler and drier air will spread back into the area with highs in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 114 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Back edge of ifr stratus/br dropping south across srn MI will clear the terminals in the next few hrs. Subsidence/dry air associated with ridge building into the Great Lakes should then result in vfr conditions for the remainder of the taf period. Diurnal heating/mixing should allow NE winds to gust to around 20kt today. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM CDT early this morning for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Skipper SHORT TERM...Skipper LONG TERM...Skipper AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 404 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation sections updated && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 350 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Warmth will build once again over the weekend as a broad ridge of high pressure strengthens and expands over much of the country. This ridge will prevent any precipitation through the weekend. As the ridge retreats westward early next week, an upper level disturbance and associated front will drop into the region, bringing somewhat cooler temperatures for much of next week, and potentially thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 350 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Cloud cover associated with the tail end of an upper level disturbance is passing through the area this morning. It shows some signs of gradually dissipating, and expect that skies will be partly cloudy early, before clearing. Consensus numbers appear reasonable for max temps today. Ample sunshine should make the mid 80s well within reach across most of the area today. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Issued at 350 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep weather throughout the weekend dry, and skies clear. This leaves temperatures as the significant forecast variable. Consensus numbers appear reasonable throughout save for being slightly too cool late in the weekend. Temps should climb a bit each day, reaching the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Fortunately, dewpoints will be somewhat lower than a few days ago, which will limit heat index values and resultant heat stress threat. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday Night/... Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 The ecmwf shows that by Monday the extensively large area of High pressure in place across the country will begin to break down...allowing a short wave over central Canada to sag southward into the Great Lakes. This feature looks to have an associated cold front that will push across Indiana on Monday night into Tuesday. This will be the best chances for precipitation over the next week. There after...the ECMWF suggests a pattern change...with ridging building across the western plains and cool...dry...northwest flow developing across the Great Lakes and Indiana. This will result dry weather late next workweek along with below normal tempertures. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 170900z ind taf update/... Ir images shows area of MVFR Cigs slowly moving acrs central Indiana....with a slow dissipating trend. Thus have kept MVFR Cigs around 1-3 more hours...trending toward VFR after sunrise. Previous discussion below /Discussion for the 170600Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 1200 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 MVFR Ceilings at times KIND and KLAF overnight. Otherwise...VFR. High pressure over the western great lakes will build southeast towards northern Indiana. Area of MVFR Ceilings over the northern half Indiana will reach KLAF and KIND. But subsidence may limit it from reaching KHUF and KBMG TAF sites. Will keep them VFR Ceilings overnight. Model soundings indicate clouds will scatter out towards daybreak and then becoming mostly clear later Friday as high pressure builds into the area. Have backed off on the fog as some wind will remain overnight and temperature dewpoint depressions not that close. Winds will be from the north to northeast 5 to 10 knots overnight and Friday becoming light Friday night. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...NIELD SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...PUMA AVIATION...JH/JP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .UPDATE... The Synopsis, Near Term, and Short Term sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 350 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Warmth will build once again over the weekend as a broad ridge of high pressure strengthens and expands over much of the country. This ridge will prevent any precipitation through the weekend. As the ridge retreats westward early next week, an upper level disturbance and associated front will drop into the region, bringing somewhat cooler temperatures for much of next week, and potentially thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 350 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Cloud cover associated with the tail end of an upper level disturbance is passing through the area this morning. It shows some signs of gradually dissipating, and expect that skies will be partly cloudy early, before clearing. Consensus numbers appear reasonable for max temps today. Ample sunshine should make the mid 80s well within reach across most of the area today. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Issued at 350 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep weather throughout the weekend dry, and skies clear. This leaves temperatures as the significant forecast variable. Consensus numbers appear reasonable throughout save for being slightly too cool late in the weekend. Temps should climb a bit each day, reaching the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Fortunately, dewpoints will be somewhat lower than a few days ago, which will limit heat index values and resultant heat stress threat. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday Night/... Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 The ecmwf shows that by Monday the extensively large area of High pressure in place across the country will begin to break down...allowing a short wave over central Canada to sag southward into the Great Lakes. This feature looks to have an associated cold front that will push across Indiana on Monday night into Tuesday. This will be the best chances for precipitation over the next week. There after...the ECMWF suggests a pattern change...with ridging building across the western plains and cool...dry...northwest flow developing across the Great Lakes and Indiana. This will result dry weather late next workweek along with below normal tempertures. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 170600Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 1200 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 MVFR Ceilings at times KIND and KLAF overnight. Otherwise...VFR. High pressure over the western great lakes will build southeast towards northern Indiana. Area of MVFR Ceilings over the northern half Indiana will reach KLAF and KIND. But subsidence may limit it from reaching KHUF and KBMG TAF sites. Will keep them VFR Ceilings overnight. Model soundings indicate clouds will scatter out towards daybreak and then becoming mostly clear later Friday as high pressure builds into the area. Have backed off on the fog as some wind will remain overnight and temperature dewpoint depressions not that close. Winds will be from the north to northeast 5 to 10 knots overnight and Friday becoming light Friday night. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...NIELD SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...PUMA AVIATION...JH/JP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 238 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 918 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quite a bit of lower cloud cover upstream over the southern Great Lakes and northern Indiana. This has been moving south with time. Will go more pessimistic on the cloud cover tonight. Previous discussion follows. Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday Night/... Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 The ecmwf shows that by Monday the extensively large area of High pressure in place across the country will begin to break down...allowing a short wave over central Canada to sag southward into the Great Lakes. This feature looks to have an associated cold front that will push across Indiana on Monday night into Tuesday. This will be the best chances for precipitation over the next week. There after...the ECMWF suggests a pattern change...with ridging building across the western plains and cool...dry...northwest flow developing across the Great Lakes and Indiana. This will result dry weather late next workweek along with below normal tempertures. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 170600Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 1200 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 MVFR Ceilings at times KIND and KLAF overnight. Otherwise...VFR. High pressure over the western great lakes will build southeast towards northern Indiana. Area of MVFR Ceilings over the northern half Indiana will reach KLAF and KIND. But subsidence may limit it from reaching KHUF and KBMG TAF sites. Will keep them VFR Ceilings overnight. Model soundings indicate clouds will scatter out towards daybreak and then becoming mostly clear later Friday as high pressure builds into the area. Have backed off on the fog as some wind will remain overnight and temperature dewpoint depressions not that close. Winds will be from the north to northeast 5 to 10 knots overnight and Friday becoming light Friday night. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....PUMA AVIATION...JH/JP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 118 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1020 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Low clouds, fog and drizzle will persist across southeast lower Michigan to northeast Indiana through the early morning. As high pressure builds across the Great Lakes Friday, skies will clear. Warmer conditions are in store for Friday and Saturday with low humidity levels. The next chance of rain will be late Monday or Tuesday as another cold front approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday in advance of this front. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures on Friday will reach into the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Primary short term forecast concern will be on lingering shower potential, mainly across far east/northeast through early evening. An upper level low centered across southeast lower Michigan will continue to drop southeast this evening across northern Ohio. Bulk of convection with lead strong vort lobe is beginning to initiate across northeast Ohio and will not pose any risk for local area. However, a secondary low level trough axis associated with this system will drop across the southern Great Lakes this evening. Scattered showers are associated with this trough across southeast lower Michigan with a few isolated storms. While cannot completely rule out an isolated storm across extreme northeast over next hour or two, may be able to remove this mention entirely with the late afternoon forecast with instability of any note east of the area. Confidence in how long to hang out at least isolated shower mention across NW Ohio this evening is low with deformation forcing potentially lagging into the 02Z-03Z timeframe. Otherwise, with strongest upper forcing/low level CAA shifting east of the area this evening, should tend to see a fairly high diurnal dependence to more substantial low cloud cover, trending to partly cloudy/clear for most locations by late evening. Gradient should remain somewhat modest overnight and expecting enough low level mixing to prevent temps from bottoming out too much, generally from mid 50s to lower 60s. Sfc anticyclone to slide eastward across the Great Lakes for Friday locking the local area into an extended period of northeast flow into the weekend. This should keep humidity levels on the low side through Saturday. Despite only a modest modification of the air mass for Friday, nearly full insolation should allow for highs around 80, or into the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quiet conditions to continue through the Friday night through most of Monday period as broad high pressure slowly retreats to the eastern seaboard. Return southwesterly flow Monday will begin advect more substantial low level moisture into the area, although flow trajectories with aforementioned eastern anticyclone should result in deeper moisture circumnavigating the area into the Plains/Upper Midwest. Medium range models have been fairly consistent over past several runs in advertising more substantial upper trough eventually dampening central CONUS ridge and driving frontal boundary southward across the area late Monday/Tuesday. Have stayed close to previous forecast in ramping up to mid/high chance PoPs Monday night/Tuesday to account for this feature. Early indications would suggest frontal convergence may maximize north/northwest of the area Monday night with some enhancement by stronger low level jet axis. Difficult at this time to gage any potential strong/severe risk as deeper moisture may be confined to fairly narrow frontal corridor, and also some question as to potential of unfavorable timing of frontal passage late Monday night/Tuesday morning. Frontal convergence also may tend to weaken with southward extent. Otherwise, Monday should shape up to be the warmest day of the period ahead of the front, cooling back to near seasonal or slightly below seasonal norms toward end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 114 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Back edge of ifr stratus/br dropping south across srn MI will clear the terminals in the next few hrs. Subsidence/dry air associated with ridge building into the Great Lakes should then result in vfr conditions for the remainder of the taf period. Diurnal heating/mixing should allow NE winds to gust to around 20kt today. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM CDT early this morning for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lewis SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 118 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1020 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Low clouds, fog and drizzle will persist across southeast lower Michigan to northeast Indiana through the early morning. As high pressure builds across the Great Lakes Friday, skies will clear. Warmer conditions are in store for Friday and Saturday with low humidity levels. The next chance of rain will be late Monday or Tuesday as another cold front approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday in advance of this front. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures on Friday will reach into the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Primary short term forecast concern will be on lingering shower potential, mainly across far east/northeast through early evening. An upper level low centered across southeast lower Michigan will continue to drop southeast this evening across northern Ohio. Bulk of convection with lead strong vort lobe is beginning to initiate across northeast Ohio and will not pose any risk for local area. However, a secondary low level trough axis associated with this system will drop across the southern Great Lakes this evening. Scattered showers are associated with this trough across southeast lower Michigan with a few isolated storms. While cannot completely rule out an isolated storm across extreme northeast over next hour or two, may be able to remove this mention entirely with the late afternoon forecast with instability of any note east of the area. Confidence in how long to hang out at least isolated shower mention across NW Ohio this evening is low with deformation forcing potentially lagging into the 02Z-03Z timeframe. Otherwise, with strongest upper forcing/low level CAA shifting east of the area this evening, should tend to see a fairly high diurnal dependence to more substantial low cloud cover, trending to partly cloudy/clear for most locations by late evening. Gradient should remain somewhat modest overnight and expecting enough low level mixing to prevent temps from bottoming out too much, generally from mid 50s to lower 60s. Sfc anticyclone to slide eastward across the Great Lakes for Friday locking the local area into an extended period of northeast flow into the weekend. This should keep humidity levels on the low side through Saturday. Despite only a modest modification of the air mass for Friday, nearly full insolation should allow for highs around 80, or into the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quiet conditions to continue through the Friday night through most of Monday period as broad high pressure slowly retreats to the eastern seaboard. Return southwesterly flow Monday will begin advect more substantial low level moisture into the area, although flow trajectories with aforementioned eastern anticyclone should result in deeper moisture circumnavigating the area into the Plains/Upper Midwest. Medium range models have been fairly consistent over past several runs in advertising more substantial upper trough eventually dampening central CONUS ridge and driving frontal boundary southward across the area late Monday/Tuesday. Have stayed close to previous forecast in ramping up to mid/high chance PoPs Monday night/Tuesday to account for this feature. Early indications would suggest frontal convergence may maximize north/northwest of the area Monday night with some enhancement by stronger low level jet axis. Difficult at this time to gage any potential strong/severe risk as deeper moisture may be confined to fairly narrow frontal corridor, and also some question as to potential of unfavorable timing of frontal passage late Monday night/Tuesday morning. Frontal convergence also may tend to weaken with southward extent. Otherwise, Monday should shape up to be the warmest day of the period ahead of the front, cooling back to near seasonal or slightly below seasonal norms toward end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 114 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Back edge of ifr stratus/br dropping south across srn MI will clear the terminals in the next few hrs. Subsidence/dry air associated with ridge building into the Great Lakes should then result in vfr conditions for the remainder of the taf period. Diurnal heating/mixing should allow NE winds to gust to around 20kt today. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM CDT early this morning for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lewis SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1035 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 918 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quite a bit of lower cloud cover upstream over the southern Great Lakes and northern Indiana. This has been moving south with time. Will go more pessimistic on the cloud cover tonight. Previous discussion follows. Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 170600Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 1200 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 MVFR Ceilings at times KIND and KLAF overnight. Otherwise...VFR. High pressuer over the western great lakes will build southeast towards northern Indiana. Area of MVFR Ceilings over the northern half Indiana will reach KLAF and KIND. But subsidence may limit it from reaching KHUF and KBMG TAF sites. Will keep them VFR Ceilings overnight. Model soundings indicate clouds will scatter out towards daybreak and then becoming mostly clear later Friday as high pressure builds into the area. Have backed off on the fog as some wind will remain overnight and temperature dewpoint depressions not that close. Winds will be from the north to northeast 5 to 10 knots overnight and Friday becoming light Friday night. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...JH/JP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1035 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 918 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quite a bit of lower cloud cover upstream over the southern Great Lakes and northern Indiana. This has been moving south with time. Will go more pessimistic on the cloud cover tonight. Previous discussion follows. Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 170600Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 1200 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 MVFR Ceilings at times KIND and KLAF overnight. Otherwise...VFR. High pressuer over the western great lakes will build southeast towards northern Indiana. Area of MVFR Ceilings over the northern half Indiana will reach KLAF and KIND. But subsidence may limit it from reaching KHUF and KBMG TAF sites. Will keep them VFR Ceilings overnight. Model soundings indicate clouds will scatter out towards daybreak and then becoming mostly clear later Friday as high pressure builds into the area. Have backed off on the fog as some wind will remain overnight and temperature dewpoint depressions not that close. Winds will be from the north to northeast 5 to 10 knots overnight and Friday becoming light Friday night. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...JH/JP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1035 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 918 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quite a bit of lower cloud cover upstream over the southern Great Lakes and northern Indiana. This has been moving south with time. Will go more pessimistic on the cloud cover tonight. Previous discussion follows. Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 170300Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 1035 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions. No other changes are needed at this time. Previous aviation discussion follows... A brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KIND and KLAF towards midnight. Otherwise...VFR. Low perssure was over the appalachians...while high pressure was over the upper midwest. The high pressure system will build southeast across the great lakes and northern Indiana by Friday. Weather depiction indicated some MVFR ceilings or lower over northern Indiana and this will spread south some overnight...before dississipating late tonight as drier air moves in. Expect mostly VFR ceilings at KIND...KLAF and scattered clouds around 4 thousand feet at KHUF and KBMG overnight. Will mention tempo 2 thousand broken for a few hours around or a few hours after midnight. Drier air works in later tonight and clouds scatter out with mostly clear conditions by the end of the period. Could see some MVFR fog in outlying TAF sites late tonight. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will decrease to 8 knots or less and become north overnight and northeast around 8 knots Friday. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1035 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 918 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quite a bit of lower cloud cover upstream over the southern Great Lakes and northern Indiana. This has been moving south with time. Will go more pessimistic on the cloud cover tonight. Previous discussion follows. Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 170300Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 1035 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions. No other changes are needed at this time. Previous aviation discussion follows... A brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KIND and KLAF towards midnight. Otherwise...VFR. Low perssure was over the appalachians...while high pressure was over the upper midwest. The high pressure system will build southeast across the great lakes and northern Indiana by Friday. Weather depiction indicated some MVFR ceilings or lower over northern Indiana and this will spread south some overnight...before dississipating late tonight as drier air moves in. Expect mostly VFR ceilings at KIND...KLAF and scattered clouds around 4 thousand feet at KHUF and KBMG overnight. Will mention tempo 2 thousand broken for a few hours around or a few hours after midnight. Drier air works in later tonight and clouds scatter out with mostly clear conditions by the end of the period. Could see some MVFR fog in outlying TAF sites late tonight. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will decrease to 8 knots or less and become north overnight and northeast around 8 knots Friday. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1027 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1020 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Low clouds, fog and drizzle will persist across southeast lower Michigan to northeast Indiana through the early morning. As high pressure builds across the Great Lakes Friday, skies will clear. Warmer conditions are in store for Friday and Saturday with low humidity levels. The next chance of rain will be late Monday or Tuesday as another cold front approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday in advance of this front. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures on Friday will reach into the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Primary short term forecast concern will be on lingering shower potential, mainly across far east/northeast through early evening. An upper level low centered across southeast lower Michigan will continue to drop southeast this evening across northern Ohio. Bulk of convection with lead strong vort lobe is beginning to initiate across northeast Ohio and will not pose any risk for local area. However, a secondary low level trough axis associated with this system will drop across the southern Great Lakes this evening. Scattered showers are associated with this trough across southeast lower Michigan with a few isolated storms. While cannot completely rule out an isolated storm across extreme northeast over next hour or two, may be able to remove this mention entirely with the late afternoon forecast with instability of any note east of the area. Confidence in how long to hang out at least isolated shower mention across NW Ohio this evening is low with deformation forcing potentially lagging into the 02Z-03Z timeframe. Otherwise, with strongest upper forcing/low level CAA shifting east of the area this evening, should tend to see a fairly high diurnal dependence to more substantial low cloud cover, trending to partly cloudy/clear for most locations by late evening. Gradient should remain somewhat modest overnight and expecting enough low level mixing to prevent temps from bottoming out too much, generally from mid 50s to lower 60s. Sfc anticyclone to slide eastward across the Great Lakes for Friday locking the local area into an extended period of northeast flow into the weekend. This should keep humidity levels on the low side through Saturday. Despite only a modest modification of the air mass for Friday, nearly full insolation should allow for highs around 80, or into the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quiet conditions to continue through the Friday night through most of Monday period as broad high pressure slowly retreats to the eastern seaboard. Return southwesterly flow Monday will begin advect more substantial low level moisture into the area, although flow trajectories with aforementioned eastern anticyclone should result in deeper moisture circumnavigating the area into the Plains/Upper Midwest. Medium range models have been fairly consistent over past several runs in advertising more substantial upper trough eventually dampening central CONUS ridge and driving frontal boundary southward across the area late Monday/Tuesday. Have stayed close to previous forecast in ramping up to mid/high chance PoPs Monday night/Tuesday to account for this feature. Early indications would suggest frontal convergence may maximize north/northwest of the area Monday night with some enhancement by stronger low level jet axis. Difficult at this time to gage any potential strong/severe risk as deeper moisture may be confined to fairly narrow frontal corridor, and also some question as to potential of unfavorable timing of frontal passage late Monday night/Tuesday morning. Frontal convergence also may tend to weaken with southward extent. Otherwise, Monday should shape up to be the warmest day of the period ahead of the front, cooling back to near seasonal or slightly below seasonal norms toward end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 1020 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 IFR/LIFR conditions will persist along/close to Lake Michigan through the early morning. Northeasterly flow will keep the moisture trapped along the boundarly layer frontal boundary that extends from KVPZ-KASW-KAOH. Widespread IFR/MVFR cigs and vsby south of this line will gradually erode before 12Z. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM CDT Friday for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT Friday for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lewis SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...Lewis Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 918 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 918 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quite a bit of lower cloud cover upstream over the southern Great Lakes and northern Indiana. This has been moving south with time. Will go more pessimistic on the cloud cover tonight. Previous discussion follows. Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 170000Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KIND and KLAF towards midnight. Otherwise...VFR. Low perssure was over the appalachians...while high pressure was over the upper midwest. The high pressure system will build southeast across the great lakes and northern Indiana by Friday. Weather depiction indicated some MVFR ceilings or lower over northern Indiana and this will spread south some overnight...before dississipating late tonight as drier air moves in. Expect mostly VFR ceilings at KIND...KLAF and scattered clouds around 4 thousand feet at KHUF and KBMG overnight. Will mention tempo 2 thousand broken for a few hours around or a few hours after midnight. Drier air works in later tonight and clouds scatter out with mostly clear conditions by the end of the period. Could see some MVFR fog in outlying TAF sites late tonight. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will decrease to 8 knots or less and become north overnight and northeast around 8 knots Friday. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 720 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 170000Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KIND and KLAF towards midnight. Otherwise...VFR. Low perssure was over the appalachians...while high pressure was over the upper midwest. The high pressure system will build southeast across the great lakes and northern Indiana by Friday. Weather depiction indicated some MVFR ceilings or lower over northern Indiana and this will spread south some overnight...before dississipating late tonight as drier air moves in. Expect mostly VFR ceilings at KIND...KLAF and scattered clouds around 4 thousand feet at KHUF and KBMG overnight. Will mention tempo 2 thousand broken for a few hours around or a few hours after midnight. Drier air works in later tonight and clouds scatter out with mostly clear conditions by the end of the period. Could see some MVFR fog in outlying TAF sites late tonight. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will decrease to 8 knots or less and become north overnight and northeast around 8 knots Friday. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 720 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A slow moving upper level disturbance may result in a few showers across southeast lower Michigan, far northeast Indiana, and northwest Ohio this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for tonight with decreasing clouds expected as a ridge of high pressure begins to build across the Great Lakes. Warmer conditions are in store for Friday and Saturday with low humidity levels. The next chance of rain will be late Monday or Tuesday as another cold front approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday in advance of this front. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures on Friday will reach into the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Primary short term forecast concern will be on lingering shower potential, mainly across far east/northeast through early evening. An upper level low centered across southeast lower Michigan will continue to drop southeast this evening across northern Ohio. Bulk of convection with lead strong vort lobe is beginning to initiate across northeast Ohio and will not pose any risk for local area. However, a secondary low level trough axis associated with this system will drop across the southern Great Lakes this evening. Scattered showers are associated with this trough across southeast lower Michigan with a few isolated storms. While cannot completely rule out an isolated storm across extreme northeast over next hour or two, may be able to remove this mention entirely with the late afternoon forecast with instability of any note east of the area. Confidence in how long to hang out at least isolated shower mention across NW Ohio this evening is low with deformation forcing potentially lagging into the 02Z-03Z timeframe. Otherwise, with strongest upper forcing/low level CAA shifting east of the area this evening, should tend to see a fairly high diurnal dependence to more substantial low cloud cover, trending to partly cloudy/clear for most locations by late evening. Gradient should remain somewhat modest overnight and expecting enough low level mixing to prevent temps from bottoming out too much, generally from mid 50s to lower 60s. Sfc anticyclone to slide eastward across the Great Lakes for Friday locking the local area into an extended period of northeast flow into the weekend. This should keep humidity levels on the low side through Saturday. Despite only a modest modification of the air mass for Friday, nearly full insolation should allow for highs around 80, or into the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quiet conditions to continue through the Friday night through most of Monday period as broad high pressure slowly retreats to the eastern seaboard. Return southwesterly flow Monday will begin advect more substantial low level moisture into the area, although flow trajectories with aforementioned eastern anticyclone should result in deeper moisture circumnavigating the area into the Plains/Upper Midwest. Medium range models have been fairly consistent over past several runs in advertising more substantial upper trough eventually dampening central CONUS ridge and driving frontal boundary southward across the area late Monday/Tuesday. Have stayed close to previous forecast in ramping up to mid/high chance PoPs Monday night/Tuesday to account for this feature. Early indications would suggest frontal convergence may maximize north/northwest of the area Monday night with some enhancement by stronger low level jet axis. Difficult at this time to gage any potential strong/severe risk as deeper moisture may be confined to fairly narrow frontal corridor, and also some question as to potential of unfavorable timing of frontal passage late Monday night/Tuesday morning. Frontal convergence also may tend to weaken with southward extent. Otherwise, Monday should shape up to be the warmest day of the period ahead of the front, cooling back to near seasonal or slightly below seasonal norms toward end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 713 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Stratus...fog and patchy drizzle will persist through midnight before gradually dissipating overnight. The boundary layer trof is the focus of weak isentropic assent region and this has created widespread IFR conditions near Lake Michigan, to MVFR conditions from near KVPZ-KASW-KGWB-KDFI and south. This boundary is also the focus of a weak surface pressure gradient and has produced periodic wind gusts. Partial clearing will occur after 05Z and then more improvement before 15Z. Likewise winds will begin to decrease significantly between 00-05Z. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 AM CDT Friday for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Friday for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...Lewis Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 432 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 162100Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 432 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions. No other changes are needed at this time. Previous aviation discussion follows... A period of MVFR conditions possible overnight, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Gusty winds this afternoon. Area of clouds across northern Indiana back into Wisconsin will rotate southeast into mainly the northern sites this afternoon. These should remain VFR. Looks like lower conditions will develop overnight with lingering low level moisture behind a departing upper level system. Consensus of most models is for conditions to remain MVFR or higher in stratocumulus or fog, so put this in the forecast. Conditions should quickly improve Friday morning, with VFR expected thereafter. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...50/JH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 344 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A slow moving upper level disturbance may result in a few showers across southeast lower Michigan, far northeast Indiana, and northwest Ohio this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for tonight with decreasing clouds expected as a ridge of high pressure begins to build across the Great Lakes. Warmer conditions are in store for Friday and Saturday with low humidity levels. The next chance of rain will be late Monday or Tuesday as another cold front approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday in advance of this front. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures on Friday will reach into the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Primary short term forecast concern will be on lingering shower potential, mainly across far east/northeast through early evening. An upper level low centered across southeast lower Michigan will continue to drop southeast this evening across northern Ohio. Bulk of convection with lead strong vort lobe is beginning to initiate across northeast Ohio and will not pose any risk for local area. However, a secondary low level trough axis associated with this system will drop across the southern Great Lakes this evening. Scattered showers are associated with this trough across southeast lower Michigan with a few isolated storms. While cannot completely rule out an isolated storm across extreme northeast over next hour or two, may be able to remove this mention entirely with the late afternoon forecast with instability of any note east of the area. Confidence in how long to hang out at least isolated shower mention across NW Ohio this evening is low with deformation forcing potentially lagging into the 02Z-03Z timeframe. Otherwise, with strongest upper forcing/low level CAA shifting east of the area this evening, should tend to see a fairly high diurnal dependence to more substantial low cloud cover, trending to partly cloudy/clear for most locations by late evening. Gradient should remain somewhat modest overnight and expecting enough low level mixing to prevent temps from bottoming out too much, generally from mid 50s to lower 60s. Sfc anticyclone to slide eastward across the Great Lakes for Friday locking the local area into an extended period of northeast flow into the weekend. This should keep humidity levels on the low side through Saturday. Despite only a modest modification of the air mass for Friday, nearly full insolation should allow for highs around 80, or into the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quiet conditions to continue through the Friday night through most of Monday period as broad high pressure slowly retreats to the eastern seaboard. Return southwesterly flow Monday will begin advect more substantial low level moisture into the area, although flow trajectories with aforementioned eastern anticyclone should result in deeper moisture circumnavigating the area into the Plains/Upper Midwest. Medium range models have been fairly consistent over past several runs in advertising more substantial upper trough eventually dampening central CONUS ridge and driving frontal boundary southward across the area late Monday/Tuesday. Have stayed close to previous forecast in ramping up to mid/high chance PoPs Monday night/Tuesday to account for this feature. Early indications would suggest frontal convergence may maximize north/northwest of the area Monday night with some enhancement by stronger low level jet axis. Difficult at this time to gage any potential strong/severe risk as deeper moisture may be confined to fairly narrow frontal corridor, and also some question as to potential of unfavorable timing of frontal passage late Monday night/Tuesday morning. Frontal convergence also may tend to weaken with southward extent. Otherwise, Monday should shape up to be the warmest day of the period ahead of the front, cooling back to near seasonal or slightly below seasonal norms toward end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Clouds will continue to rotate around low pressure currently near KDTW. MVFR/IFR conditions have been impacting KSBN for several hours and upstream trends suggest this lasting through late afternoon before loss of limited heating and drier air all allow clouds to slowly break up. At KFWA...low clouds have struggled more but should fill in to bring at least a period of MVFR cigs through around 00z. Some light showers/pockets of drizzle have been observed that quickly drop visibility for a few minutes. Coverage is sparse and quick enough that it isn`t worth placing in TAFs. At least partial clearing should take places after 00z...which could bring a risk of some ground fog later tonight. Given what may be patchy nature have backed away from predominant mvfr vsby and went with tempo at both sites later tonight. No issues expected on Friday. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 AM CDT Friday for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Friday for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...Fisher Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 344 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A slow moving upper level disturbance may result in a few showers across southeast lower Michigan, far northeast Indiana, and northwest Ohio this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for tonight with decreasing clouds expected as a ridge of high pressure begins to build across the Great Lakes. Warmer conditions are in store for Friday and Saturday with low humidity levels. The next chance of rain will be late Monday or Tuesday as another cold front approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday in advance of this front. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures on Friday will reach into the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Primary short term forecast concern will be on lingering shower potential, mainly across far east/northeast through early evening. An upper level low centered across southeast lower Michigan will continue to drop southeast this evening across northern Ohio. Bulk of convection with lead strong vort lobe is beginning to initiate across northeast Ohio and will not pose any risk for local area. However, a secondary low level trough axis associated with this system will drop across the southern Great Lakes this evening. Scattered showers are associated with this trough across southeast lower Michigan with a few isolated storms. While cannot completely rule out an isolated storm across extreme northeast over next hour or two, may be able to remove this mention entirely with the late afternoon forecast with instability of any note east of the area. Confidence in how long to hang out at least isolated shower mention across NW Ohio this evening is low with deformation forcing potentially lagging into the 02Z-03Z timeframe. Otherwise, with strongest upper forcing/low level CAA shifting east of the area this evening, should tend to see a fairly high diurnal dependence to more substantial low cloud cover, trending to partly cloudy/clear for most locations by late evening. Gradient should remain somewhat modest overnight and expecting enough low level mixing to prevent temps from bottoming out too much, generally from mid 50s to lower 60s. Sfc anticyclone to slide eastward across the Great Lakes for Friday locking the local area into an extended period of northeast flow into the weekend. This should keep humidity levels on the low side through Saturday. Despite only a modest modification of the air mass for Friday, nearly full insolation should allow for highs around 80, or into the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Quiet conditions to continue through the Friday night through most of Monday period as broad high pressure slowly retreats to the eastern seaboard. Return southwesterly flow Monday will begin advect more substantial low level moisture into the area, although flow trajectories with aforementioned eastern anticyclone should result in deeper moisture circumnavigating the area into the Plains/Upper Midwest. Medium range models have been fairly consistent over past several runs in advertising more substantial upper trough eventually dampening central CONUS ridge and driving frontal boundary southward across the area late Monday/Tuesday. Have stayed close to previous forecast in ramping up to mid/high chance PoPs Monday night/Tuesday to account for this feature. Early indications would suggest frontal convergence may maximize north/northwest of the area Monday night with some enhancement by stronger low level jet axis. Difficult at this time to gage any potential strong/severe risk as deeper moisture may be confined to fairly narrow frontal corridor, and also some question as to potential of unfavorable timing of frontal passage late Monday night/Tuesday morning. Frontal convergence also may tend to weaken with southward extent. Otherwise, Monday should shape up to be the warmest day of the period ahead of the front, cooling back to near seasonal or slightly below seasonal norms toward end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Clouds will continue to rotate around low pressure currently near KDTW. MVFR/IFR conditions have been impacting KSBN for several hours and upstream trends suggest this lasting through late afternoon before loss of limited heating and drier air all allow clouds to slowly break up. At KFWA...low clouds have struggled more but should fill in to bring at least a period of MVFR cigs through around 00z. Some light showers/pockets of drizzle have been observed that quickly drop visibility for a few minutes. Coverage is sparse and quick enough that it isn`t worth placing in TAFs. At least partial clearing should take places after 00z...which could bring a risk of some ground fog later tonight. Given what may be patchy nature have backed away from predominant mvfr vsby and went with tempo at both sites later tonight. No issues expected on Friday. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 AM CDT Friday for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Friday for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...Fisher Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 300 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will bring an extended period of warm...dry and less humid weather for central Indiana through the weekend. Hotter and more humid conditions will return early next week ahead of a strong cold front. The front will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday night and Tuesday before high pressure returns with cooler conditions by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cold front has swept through the forecast area as of mid afternoon with drier air filtering into the region from the north in its wake. Winds have veered to a N/NW direction and become breezy. Broken stratocu field spreading south with the mid level cold pool 18Z temps ranged from the low 80s north to near 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Clouds and temps will be the primary issues for tonight as an upper low passes by to the northeast and cold advection fully takes over across the region with a surface ridge building in. Lower clouds will continue to stream southeast across the northeast half of the forecast area for the rest of the afternoon as the upper low tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Model soundings and RH progs show the stratocu lingering through the evening especially to the northeast of the Indy metro before a more expansive amount of drier air advects into the region after midnight as the upper low tracks into the central Appalachians. Will carry a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northeast this evening with clearing overnight. Further south and west across the forecast area...other than a few clouds expect mainly clear skies. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening with max wind gusts near 30mph. Gusts will drop off near sunset but thermodynamic profiles suggest the boundary layer will not fully decouple overnight. Expect a steady N/NW 5-10mph most areas all night. Temps...Dewpoints will steadily fall as a less humid airmass is brought south through the afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for a comfortable night with temps falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Held fairly close to MOS guidance which lined up well with low level thermals. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure will be the dominant influence through the weekend with mainly clear skies and warm temperatures. Large high pressure will settle across the region with progressively deeper subsidence developing across the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights will quickly rebound in the wake of the aforementioned upper low with the ridge aloft over the central U S elongating into the Great Lakes by the second half of the weekend. As the center of the surface high shifts into the Appalachians by Sunday...return flow on the back side of the high will pump hotter and more humid air back into central Indiana Sunday and continuing into early next week. Diurnal cu should be limited through much of the period as model soundings show drier air extending into the boundary layer and convective temps largely remain unattainable. Cu development may be a bit more pronounced on Sunday as southwest flow brings deeper moisture back north into the region. Regardless...expect abundant sunshine by day with clear skies at night through the short term. An outstanding weekend by all accounts. Temps...Leaned towards warmer MET guidance for highs through the period based on recent performance and that it aligns with low level thermals and raw NAM 2m temps. Expect low to mid 80s Friday rising into the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to climb Sunday as the flow veers around to southwest but in general humidity levels will be pleasant for much of the weekend. Enjoy. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 161800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A period of MVFR conditions possible overnight, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Gusty winds this afternoon. Area of clouds across northern Indiana back into Wisconsin will rotate southeast into mainly the northern sites this afternoon. These should remain VFR. Looks like lower conditions will develop overnight with lingering low level moisture behind a departing upper level system. Consensus of most models is for conditions to remain MVFR or higher in stratocumulus or fog, so put this in the forecast. Conditions should quickly improve Friday morning, with VFR expected thereafter. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 218 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 161800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A period of MVFR conditions possible overnight, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Gusty winds this afternoon. Area of clouds across northern Indiana back into Wisconsin will rotate southeast into mainly the northern sites this afternoon. These should remain VFR. Looks like lower conditions will develop overnight with lingering low level moisture behind a departing upper level system. Consensus of most models is for conditions to remain MVFR or higher in stratocumulus or fog, so put this in the forecast. Conditions should quickly improve Friday morning, with VFR expected thereafter. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 218 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper high will retreat to the southwestern USA during the long term, putting the forecast area back into more of a northwest flow. Monday will be hot and dry with the upper high still nosing in. Upped Superblend`s highs given the strength of the upper high. A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow will kick in Tuesday night on. For the moment this looks like a dry pattern, but will have to watch for any upper waves that might move down into the area with this pattern. Removed any Superblend slight chance PoPs most areas Tuesday night on. Temperatures will gradually cool to near or below average as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 161800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A period of MVFR conditions possible overnight, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Gusty winds this afternoon. Area of clouds across northern Indiana back into Wisconsin will rotate southeast into mainly the northern sites this afternoon. These should remain VFR. Looks like lower conditions will develop overnight with lingering low level moisture behind a departing upper level system. Consensus of most models is for conditions to remain MVFR or higher in stratocumulus or fog, so put this in the forecast. Conditions should quickly improve Friday morning, with VFR expected thereafter. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 132 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cooler air will continue to filter into the area today behind a cool front. The combination of this cool front and an upper level disturbance will produce isolated to scattered showers along with an outside chance of an isolated thunderstorm today. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the 60s across southwest lower Michigan to the mid 70s across central Indiana. Tonight, expect decreasing clouds and lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Otherwise, hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan through tonight. Dangerous waves and currents will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Scattered showers have developed across southern lower Michigan and far northern Indiana this morning at leading edge of a pocket of stronger upper level vorticity advection. While forcing is fairly strong, instability is quite limited with weak mid level lapse rates atop diurnally steeping low level lapse rates. Would expect bulk of scattered showers to progress from northwest to southeast across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio through mid afternoon following this stronger forcing. Additional isolated- scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms may linger into this afternoon/early evening across extreme northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio based on the track of the upper low. Onset of cold advection and increasing low clouds should keep temperatures in check with very little movement from current readings through the remainder of the day. Updated zones sent to tweak sky cover/PoP to account for current trends but any changes were minor and previous forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Short term forecast concerns focus on hazardous marine conditions and chances for showers and t-storms this afternoon. A potent upper level low/associated 50 knot jet streak will sink southeastward towards the east coast through tonight. As a result, the CWA will be under cyclonic flow aloft/CAA, with the cold front drifting southeastward through the day. The best forcing for precipitation is in the morning, then we are under large scale subsidence with the building ridge aloft. Think we`ll see a few rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms-with the best chances to the north and east through today. In the wake of the surface cold front, which is at the doorstep of our western CWA as of 08z, we`ll see cooler and less humid conditions. Highs today will only reach into the upper 60s and 70s, with a few areas further south reaching near 80. Additionally, strong northwest winds of 15-25 knots will lead to wave heights of 3- 6 feet on Lake Michigan, approaching within 30 degrees of normal to shore. Wave periods will also lengthen to nearly 6 seconds by the end of the day. These conditions will favor strong rip current development at Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong north to south longshore currents are expect in areas that see a more northerly wave angle of approach, which will result in strong structural currents on the north sides of piers and breakwalls. Conditions will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. As a result, a beach hazards statement/small craft advisory is in effect until late tonight. Moderate swim risk conditions will continue into Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies tonight, with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Friday into Sunday will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Great Lakes region. High temps will quickly moderate into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday, with partly to mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Monday afternoon into Tuesday we are under more zonal flow aloft, and a surface cold front extending from a surface low over Ontario/Quebec will cross the region. This will bring chances for showers and storms. Another weak shortwave will cross the CWA Wednesday before high pressure returns. Kept chance/slight chance pops Mon afternoon-Wednesday as a result. With high pressure arriving for Thursday, expect dry and pleasant weather. Highs Monday will be in the 80s, but behind Tuesday`s cold front highs will only reach into the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Clouds will continue to rotate around low pressure currently near KDTW. MVFR/IFR conditions have been impacting KSBN for several hours and upstream trends suggest this lasting through late afternoon before loss of limited heating and drier air all allow clouds to slowly break up. At KFWA...low clouds have struggled more but should fill in to bring at least a period of MVFR cigs through around 00z. Some light showers/pockets of drizzle have been observed that quickly drop visibility for a few minutes. Coverage is sparse and quick enough that it isn`t worth placing in TAFs. At least partial clearing should take places after 00z...which could bring a risk of some ground fog later tonight. Given what may be patchy nature have backed away from predominant mvfr vsby and went with tempo at both sites later tonight. No issues expected on Friday. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...Fisher Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1251 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 161800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A period of MVFR conditions possible overnight, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Gusty winds this afternoon. Area of clouds across northern Indiana back into Wisconsin will rotate southeast into mainly the northern sites this afternoon. These should remain VFR. Looks like lower conditions will develop overnight with lingering low level moisture behind a departing upper level system. Consensus of most models is for conditions to remain MVFR or higher in stratocumulus or fog, so put this in the forecast. Conditions should quickly improve Friday morning, with VFR expected thereafter. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM/50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1119 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cooler air will continue to filter into the area today behind a cool front. The combination of this cool front and an upper level disturbance will produce isolated to scattered showers along with an outside chance of an isolated thunderstorm today. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the 60s across southwest lower Michigan to the mid 70s across central Indiana. Tonight, expect decreasing clouds and lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Otherwise, hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan through tonight. Dangerous waves and currents will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Scattered showers have developed across southern lower Michigan and far northern Indiana this morning at leading edge of a pocket of stronger upper level vorticity advection. While forcing is fairly strong, instability is quite limited with weak mid level lapse rates atop diurnally steeping low level lapse rates. Would expect bulk of scattered showers to progress from northwest to southeast across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio through mid afternoon following this stronger forcing. Additional isolated- scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms may linger into this afternoon/early evening across extreme northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio based on the track of the upper low. Onset of cold advection and increasing low clouds should keep temperatures in check with very little movement from current readings through the remainder of the day. Updated zones sent to tweak sky cover/PoP to account for current trends but any changes were minor and previous forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Short term forecast concerns focus on hazardous marine conditions and chances for showers and t-storms this afternoon. A potent upper level low/associated 50 knot jet streak will sink southeastward towards the east coast through tonight. As a result, the CWA will be under cyclonic flow aloft/CAA, with the cold front drifting southeastward through the day. The best forcing for precipitation is in the morning, then we are under large scale subsidence with the building ridge aloft. Think we`ll see a few rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms-with the best chances to the north and east through today. In the wake of the surface cold front, which is at the doorstep of our western CWA as of 08z, we`ll see cooler and less humid conditions. Highs today will only reach into the upper 60s and 70s, with a few areas further south reaching near 80. Additionally, strong northwest winds of 15-25 knots will lead to wave heights of 3- 6 feet on Lake Michigan, approaching within 30 degrees of normal to shore. Wave periods will also lengthen to nearly 6 seconds by the end of the day. These conditions will favor strong rip current development at Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong north to south longshore currents are expect in areas that see a more northerly wave angle of approach, which will result in strong structural currents on the north sides of piers and breakwalls. Conditions will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. As a result, a beach hazards statement/small craft advisory is in effect until late tonight. Moderate swim risk conditions will continue into Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies tonight, with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Friday into Sunday will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Great Lakes region. High temps will quickly moderate into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday, with partly to mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Monday afternoon into Tuesday we are under more zonal flow aloft, and a surface cold front extending from a surface low over Ontario/Quebec will cross the region. This will bring chances for showers and storms. Another weak shortwave will cross the CWA Wednesday before high pressure returns. Kept chance/slight chance pops Mon afternoon-Wednesday as a result. With high pressure arriving for Thursday, expect dry and pleasant weather. Highs Monday will be in the 80s, but behind Tuesday`s cold front highs will only reach into the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cdfnt contg to move east across nrn IN early this morning. Diurnal stabilization should result in a dry fropa at FWA this morning. Low level moisture wrapping around deepening low movg se across MI should spread low clouds over the area this morning with mvfr cigs expected, clearing out this evening as ridge builds in and cyclonic low level flow wanes. A few post frontal shra psbl in ne IN this aftn but point pops too low to mention in tafs. Post frontal nw winds expected to gust 20-25kt today. Some br psbl tonight, otrws mainly vfr conditions expected after low clouds scatter out. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1119 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cooler air will continue to filter into the area today behind a cool front. The combination of this cool front and an upper level disturbance will produce isolated to scattered showers along with an outside chance of an isolated thunderstorm today. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the 60s across southwest lower Michigan to the mid 70s across central Indiana. Tonight, expect decreasing clouds and lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Otherwise, hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan through tonight. Dangerous waves and currents will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Scattered showers have developed across southern lower Michigan and far northern Indiana this morning at leading edge of a pocket of stronger upper level vorticity advection. While forcing is fairly strong, instability is quite limited with weak mid level lapse rates atop diurnally steeping low level lapse rates. Would expect bulk of scattered showers to progress from northwest to southeast across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio through mid afternoon following this stronger forcing. Additional isolated- scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms may linger into this afternoon/early evening across extreme northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio based on the track of the upper low. Onset of cold advection and increasing low clouds should keep temperatures in check with very little movement from current readings through the remainder of the day. Updated zones sent to tweak sky cover/PoP to account for current trends but any changes were minor and previous forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Short term forecast concerns focus on hazardous marine conditions and chances for showers and t-storms this afternoon. A potent upper level low/associated 50 knot jet streak will sink southeastward towards the east coast through tonight. As a result, the CWA will be under cyclonic flow aloft/CAA, with the cold front drifting southeastward through the day. The best forcing for precipitation is in the morning, then we are under large scale subsidence with the building ridge aloft. Think we`ll see a few rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms-with the best chances to the north and east through today. In the wake of the surface cold front, which is at the doorstep of our western CWA as of 08z, we`ll see cooler and less humid conditions. Highs today will only reach into the upper 60s and 70s, with a few areas further south reaching near 80. Additionally, strong northwest winds of 15-25 knots will lead to wave heights of 3- 6 feet on Lake Michigan, approaching within 30 degrees of normal to shore. Wave periods will also lengthen to nearly 6 seconds by the end of the day. These conditions will favor strong rip current development at Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong north to south longshore currents are expect in areas that see a more northerly wave angle of approach, which will result in strong structural currents on the north sides of piers and breakwalls. Conditions will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. As a result, a beach hazards statement/small craft advisory is in effect until late tonight. Moderate swim risk conditions will continue into Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies tonight, with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Friday into Sunday will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Great Lakes region. High temps will quickly moderate into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday, with partly to mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Monday afternoon into Tuesday we are under more zonal flow aloft, and a surface cold front extending from a surface low over Ontario/Quebec will cross the region. This will bring chances for showers and storms. Another weak shortwave will cross the CWA Wednesday before high pressure returns. Kept chance/slight chance pops Mon afternoon-Wednesday as a result. With high pressure arriving for Thursday, expect dry and pleasant weather. Highs Monday will be in the 80s, but behind Tuesday`s cold front highs will only reach into the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cdfnt contg to move east across nrn IN early this morning. Diurnal stabilization should result in a dry fropa at FWA this morning. Low level moisture wrapping around deepening low movg se across MI should spread low clouds over the area this morning with mvfr cigs expected, clearing out this evening as ridge builds in and cyclonic low level flow wanes. A few post frontal shra psbl in ne IN this aftn but point pops too low to mention in tafs. Post frontal nw winds expected to gust 20-25kt today. Some br psbl tonight, otrws mainly vfr conditions expected after low clouds scatter out. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1024 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 161500z TAF Update/... Issued at 1024 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Made some minor adjustments to the TAF, but no significant changes. Still looks like a VFR cloud deck will arrive early this afternoon. Winds are already coming around to northwest, and they will become gusty. Previous discussion follows... VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. High pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM/50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1024 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 161500z TAF Update/... Issued at 1024 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Made some minor adjustments to the TAF, but no significant changes. Still looks like a VFR cloud deck will arrive early this afternoon. Winds are already coming around to northwest, and they will become gusty. Previous discussion follows... VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. High pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM/50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 955 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/1200z TAFS Issuance/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. High pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 955 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Sunny morning for most ongoing with exception of northeast counties where tail end of axis of low stratus associated with cold front passing through. Temps at 1330Z in the mid and upper 70s generally. Little change needed for morning update as current forecast in excellent shape. Cold front will continue its progress through central Indiana over the next several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by mid afternoon. Little forcing present for any precip impacts and outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very isolated light shower in the northeast this afternoon...will continue with a dry forecast. Large area of stratus/stratocu over the Great Lakes will expand into the northern half of the forecast area as a broken cloud deck with the mid level cold pool later today. Should see additional cu formation With convective temps in the mid 80s as well. Primary weather impact today will be winds as breezy conditions will develop in the cold advection behind the front. Momentum transfer techniques support gusts peaking at 25-30mph during the afternoon before diminishing near sunset. Despite the cold advection later today...bumped highs up a degree or two most areas with the warmer start this morning. Should see highs by mid afternoon ranging from the low 80s north to around 90 in the lower Wabash Valley. Progressively less humid conditions will develop through the day as drier air advects south behind the front. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/1200z TAFS Issuance/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. High pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 657 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 An upper wave will swing through Michigan to Ohio today and a cold front will move through central Indiana. There will be little forcing over the area from these features, however, and time heights show a pretty dry column. Think the northeast counties could see a good increase in cloud cover from stratocu as the front and upper wave move through, and can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle in that area, but for the most part think the dry air wins out and results in a dry forecast. Lapse rates in the northeast don`t look as good this set of model runs and thus removed even the slight chance to leave a dry forecast with mostly cloudy skies developing in the northeast during the afternoon and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. For temperatures think consensus numbers in the low 80s north to around 90 south look good with cold front moving through during the day and upper wave ushering in cooler and drier air as the day wears on. Based on forecast soundings, expect to see wind gusts around 20-30 mph develop by afternoon and stick around through sunset. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/1200z TAFS Issuance/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. Hig pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 657 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 An upper wave will swing through Michigan to Ohio today and a cold front will move through central Indiana. There will be little forcing over the area from these features, however, and time heights show a pretty dry column. Think the northeast counties could see a good increase in cloud cover from stratocu as the front and upper wave move through, and can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle in that area, but for the most part think the dry air wins out and results in a dry forecast. Lapse rates in the northeast don`t look as good this set of model runs and thus removed even the slight chance to leave a dry forecast with mostly cloudy skies developing in the northeast during the afternoon and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. For temperatures think consensus numbers in the low 80s north to around 90 south look good with cold front moving through during the day and upper wave ushering in cooler and drier air as the day wears on. Based on forecast soundings, expect to see wind gusts around 20-30 mph develop by afternoon and stick around through sunset. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/1200z TAFS Issuance/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. Hig pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 657 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 An upper wave will swing through Michigan to Ohio today and a cold front will move through central Indiana. There will be little forcing over the area from these features, however, and time heights show a pretty dry column. Think the northeast counties could see a good increase in cloud cover from stratocu as the front and upper wave move through, and can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle in that area, but for the most part think the dry air wins out and results in a dry forecast. Lapse rates in the northeast don`t look as good this set of model runs and thus removed even the slight chance to leave a dry forecast with mostly cloudy skies developing in the northeast during the afternoon and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. For temperatures think consensus numbers in the low 80s north to around 90 south look good with cold front moving through during the day and upper wave ushering in cooler and drier air as the day wears on. Based on forecast soundings, expect to see wind gusts around 20-30 mph develop by afternoon and stick around through sunset. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/1200z TAFS Issuance/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. Hig pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 657 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 An upper wave will swing through Michigan to Ohio today and a cold front will move through central Indiana. There will be little forcing over the area from these features, however, and time heights show a pretty dry column. Think the northeast counties could see a good increase in cloud cover from stratocu as the front and upper wave move through, and can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle in that area, but for the most part think the dry air wins out and results in a dry forecast. Lapse rates in the northeast don`t look as good this set of model runs and thus removed even the slight chance to leave a dry forecast with mostly cloudy skies developing in the northeast during the afternoon and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. For temperatures think consensus numbers in the low 80s north to around 90 south look good with cold front moving through during the day and upper wave ushering in cooler and drier air as the day wears on. Based on forecast soundings, expect to see wind gusts around 20-30 mph develop by afternoon and stick around through sunset. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/1200z TAFS Issuance/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions are the rule this morning as a cold front lies across northwest Indiana into west central IL. This front will be moving through by early this afternoon bringing some scattered to broken low clouds and some gusty winds to around 25 kt. Hig pressure will move in tonight lightening the winds with the possibility of some IFR low clouds/fog by Friday morning. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 646 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A cold front will cross through the forecast area today, bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs only reaching into the 60s and 70s in the north. Areas south of US 24 will see highs approaching 80F. Tonight, expect decreasing clouds and lows in the 50s and 60s. Otherwise, hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan through tonight. Dangerous waves and currents will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Short term forecast concerns focus on hazardous marine conditions and chances for showers and t-storms this afternoon. A potent upper level low/associated 50 knot jet streak will sink southeastward towards the east coast through tonight. As a result, the CWA will be under cyclonic flow aloft/CAA, with the cold front drifting southeastward through the day. The best forcing for precipitation is in the morning, then we are under large scale subsidence with the building ridge aloft. Think we`ll see a few rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms-with the best chances to the north and east through today. In the wake of the surface cold front, which is at the doorstep of our western CWA as of 08z, we`ll see cooler and less humid conditions. Highs today will only reach into the upper 60s and 70s, with a few areas further south reaching near 80. Additionally, strong northwest winds of 15-25 knots will lead to wave heights of 3- 6 feet on Lake Michigan, approaching within 30 degrees of normal to shore. Wave periods will also lengthen to nearly 6 seconds by the end of the day. These conditions will favor strong rip current development at Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong north to south longshore currents are expect in areas that see a more northerly wave angle of approach, which will result in strong structural currents on the north sides of piers and breakwalls. Conditions will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. As a result, a beach hazards statement/small craft advisory is in effect until late tonight. Moderate swim risk conditions will continue into Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies tonight, with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Friday into Sunday will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Great Lakes region. High temps will quickly moderate into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday, with partly to mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Monday afternoon into Tuesday we are under more zonal flow aloft, and a surface cold front extending from a surface low over Ontario/Quebec will cross the region. This will bring chances for showers and storms. Another weak shortwave will cross the CWA Wednesday before high pressure returns. Kept chance/slight chance pops Mon afternoon-Wednesday as a result. With high pressure arriving for Thursday, expect dry and pleasant weather. Highs Monday will be in the 80s, but behind Tuesday`s cold front highs will only reach into the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cdfnt contg to move east across nrn IN early this morning. Diurnal stabilization should result in a dry fropa at FWA this morning. Low level moisture wrapping around deepening low movg se across MI should spread low clouds over the area this morning with mvfr cigs expected, clearing out this evening as ridge builds in and cyclonic low level flow wanes. A few post frontal shra psbl in ne IN this aftn but point pops too low to mention in tafs. Post frontal nw winds expected to gust 20-25kt today. Some br psbl tonight, otrws mainly vfr conditions expected after low clouds scatter out. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 646 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A cold front will cross through the forecast area today, bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs only reaching into the 60s and 70s in the north. Areas south of US 24 will see highs approaching 80F. Tonight, expect decreasing clouds and lows in the 50s and 60s. Otherwise, hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan through tonight. Dangerous waves and currents will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Short term forecast concerns focus on hazardous marine conditions and chances for showers and t-storms this afternoon. A potent upper level low/associated 50 knot jet streak will sink southeastward towards the east coast through tonight. As a result, the CWA will be under cyclonic flow aloft/CAA, with the cold front drifting southeastward through the day. The best forcing for precipitation is in the morning, then we are under large scale subsidence with the building ridge aloft. Think we`ll see a few rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms-with the best chances to the north and east through today. In the wake of the surface cold front, which is at the doorstep of our western CWA as of 08z, we`ll see cooler and less humid conditions. Highs today will only reach into the upper 60s and 70s, with a few areas further south reaching near 80. Additionally, strong northwest winds of 15-25 knots will lead to wave heights of 3- 6 feet on Lake Michigan, approaching within 30 degrees of normal to shore. Wave periods will also lengthen to nearly 6 seconds by the end of the day. These conditions will favor strong rip current development at Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong north to south longshore currents are expect in areas that see a more northerly wave angle of approach, which will result in strong structural currents on the north sides of piers and breakwalls. Conditions will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. As a result, a beach hazards statement/small craft advisory is in effect until late tonight. Moderate swim risk conditions will continue into Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies tonight, with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Friday into Sunday will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Great Lakes region. High temps will quickly moderate into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday, with partly to mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Monday afternoon into Tuesday we are under more zonal flow aloft, and a surface cold front extending from a surface low over Ontario/Quebec will cross the region. This will bring chances for showers and storms. Another weak shortwave will cross the CWA Wednesday before high pressure returns. Kept chance/slight chance pops Mon afternoon-Wednesday as a result. With high pressure arriving for Thursday, expect dry and pleasant weather. Highs Monday will be in the 80s, but behind Tuesday`s cold front highs will only reach into the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cdfnt contg to move east across nrn IN early this morning. Diurnal stabilization should result in a dry fropa at FWA this morning. Low level moisture wrapping around deepening low movg se across MI should spread low clouds over the area this morning with mvfr cigs expected, clearing out this evening as ridge builds in and cyclonic low level flow wanes. A few post frontal shra psbl in ne IN this aftn but point pops too low to mention in tafs. Post frontal nw winds expected to gust 20-25kt today. Some br psbl tonight, otrws mainly vfr conditions expected after low clouds scatter out. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 420 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A cold front will cross through the forecast area today, bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs only reaching into the 60s and 70s in the north. Areas south of US 24 will see highs approaching 80F. Tonight, expect decreasing clouds and lows in the 50s and 60s. Otherwise, hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan through tonight. Dangerous waves and currents will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Short term forecast concerns focus on hazardous marine conditions and chances for showers and t-storms this afternoon. A potent upper level low/associated 50 knot jet streak will sink southeastward towards the east coast through tonight. As a result, the CWA will be under cyclonic flow aloft/CAA, with the cold front drifting southeastward through the day. The best forcing for precipitation is in the morning, then we are under large scale subsidence with the building ridge aloft. Think we`ll see a few rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms-with the best chances to the north and east through today. In the wake of the surface cold front, which is at the doorstep of our western CWA as of 08z, we`ll see cooler and less humid conditions. Highs today will only reach into the upper 60s and 70s, with a few areas further south reaching near 80. Additionally, strong northwest winds of 15-25 knots will lead to wave heights of 3- 6 feet on Lake Michigan, approaching within 30 degrees of normal to shore. Wave periods will also lengthen to nearly 6 seconds by the end of the day. These conditions will favor strong rip current development at Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong north to south longshore currents are expect in areas that see a more northerly wave angle of approach, which will result in strong structural currents on the north sides of piers and breakwalls. Conditions will be life threatening to anyone who enters the water. As a result, a beach hazards statement/small craft advisory is in effect until late tonight. Moderate swim risk conditions will continue into Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies tonight, with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Friday into Sunday will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Great Lakes region. High temps will quickly moderate into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday, with partly to mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Monday afternoon into Tuesday we are under more zonal flow aloft, and a surface cold front extending from a surface low over Ontario/Quebec will cross the region. This will bring chances for showers and storms. Another weak shortwave will cross the CWA Wednesday before high pressure returns. Kept chance/slight chance pops Mon afternoon-Wednesday as a result. With high pressure arriving for Thursday, expect dry and pleasant weather. Highs Monday will be in the 80s, but behind Tuesday`s cold front highs will only reach into the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 145 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cdfnt will move across nrn IN this morning. Tstms along the front over srn MI should remain n-ne of the terminals with a dry fropa expected at both sbn and fwa. Post frontal stratus with mvfr/ifr cigs expected to overspread the area this morning as cyclonic flow strengthens behind the front in association with deepening sfc low. These low cigs should cont this aftn before drier air moves in this evening scattering clouds out. NW winds expected to gust into the 20- 25kt range today. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 346 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Dry and cooler weather is expected to end the work week and high pressure will build in over the area. The weekend will bring increasing temperatures and humidity, and next week will see a return to storm chances with northwesterly flow developing after the upper ridge buckles. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 An upper wave will swing through Michigan to Ohio today and a cold front will move through central Indiana. There will be little forcing over the area from these features, however, and time heights show a pretty dry column. Think the northeast counties could see a good increase in cloud cover from stratocu as the front and upper wave move through, and can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle in that area, but for the most part think the dry air wins out and results in a dry forecast. Lapse rates in the northeast don`t look as good this set of model runs and thus removed even the slight chance to leave a dry forecast with mostly cloudy skies developing in the northeast during the afternoon and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. For temperatures think consensus numbers in the low 80s north to around 90 south look good with cold front moving through during the day and upper wave ushering in cooler and drier air as the day wears on. Based on forecast soundings, expect to see wind gusts around 20-30 mph develop by afternoon and stick around through sunset. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area from the north during the short term and then slide across the area during the weekend. This should allow for dry conditions and initially cooler temperatures under northerly component flow. Temperatures and humidity will increase during the weekend as the high slides east and return flow develops. Skies should be mostly clear to clear throughout. Trended highs a little warmer than guidance based on ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/0600Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1148 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Skies will remain clear through the night. The SREF suggests a very low chance of fog, however, GFS LAMP suggests a slightly better chance that the smaller airports could see some MVFR fog 09z-12z. Looking at the latest dew point spreads, winds and where the thunderstorms hit earlier, BMG seems to be the site most likely to see fog. Added a tempo 3sm there 09z-12z Later today, an upper trough will drop southeast over northeastern Indiana. Cu development progs suggest scattered to broken diurnal cu with bases around 4k feet. IND and LAF should see more cloud cover compared to HUF and BMG. Wind will be southwest and south less than 10 knots overnight and become northwest 11z-14z as the cold front moves through from the northwest. Wind speeds will increase to around 12 knots in the wake of the front with gusts to around 20 knots after 17z. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...MK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 326 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 An upper low could bring a small chance for a thunderstorm in the northeast Thursday but will also serve to usher in cooler drier air for Friday. The weekend should be dry with increasing temperatures and humidity returns to end the weekend and start the work week. An approaching frontal system will bring more thunderstorm chances Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 907 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Diffuse frontal zone appears to be located over eastern Illinois at this time. This boundary should work its way across the local area tonight, reaching the eastern border around 161200Z based off of model data. Air mass has been worked over due to earlier convection, so additional development tonight doesn`t seem too likely with the better forcing over the Great Lakes. Will hang onto some small chance PoPs for a couple more hours, around 160300Z, then will go dry the rest of the night. Convective outflows have resulted in current readings close to forecast lows. Will nudge the lows down a category. Previous discussion follows. Severe Thunderstorm Watch at the outset. Expect a downward trend in convection early tonight as a weak upper trough exits the area to the southeast...taking the bulk of the precipitation southeast of the forecast area. Thus, lowered POPs for this evening after 00z and diminished precip quicker than the previous forecast...matching better with our neighbors and short-range model solutions. && .SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 The shortwave trough that is currently rounding the top of the upper ridge over the center part of the country...will dive southeast across the western Great Lakes and into the Ohio River Valley on Thursday. Decided to hold on to slight chance POP over the northwest as this feature impacts the area. After the upper trough pushes off to the mid-Atlantic states Thursday night and Friday our weather becomes fairly quiet...with the upper ridge over the Great Plains beginning to pivot and build our direction Friday through the remainder of the timeframe. So, expect a brief cool down behind the departing shortwave on Friday as well as dry conditions and clearing skies...leading to mostly clear skies and warming temperatures to start the weekend. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Focusing on heat for this weekend and then relief from heat on Tuesday. Models are consistent with the building of strong mid/upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and extending it east and northeast through Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF MOS is a bit warmer than GFS which seems more acceptable given strength of ridge and warm temperatures through mid levels. Therefore, would not be surprised to see a few low-mid 90 temperatures Monday. Troughing associated with upper level low over southwest Hudson Bay forecast to take on the ridging going into Tuesday as trough moves southeast into the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will help retrograde the ridge back towards the southern Plains. Associated cold front will accompany a cold front through Indiana Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms through the region and comparatively cooler temperatures back to around normal. GFS wants to bring precipitation back into central Indiana Thursday ahead of low pressure over the Plains. Have low confidence in this at this point and will have to see how future model runs handle this feature. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/0600Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1148 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Skies will remain clear through the night. The SREF suggests a very low chance of fog, however, GFS LAMP suggests a slightly better chance that the smaller airports could see some MVFR fog 09z-12z. Looking at the latest dew point spreads, winds and where the thunderstorms hit earlier, BMG seems to be the site most likely to see fog. Added a tempo 3sm there 09z-12z Later today, an upper trough will drop southeast over northeastern Indiana. Cu development progs suggest scattered to broken diurnal cu with bases around 4k feet. IND and LAF should see more cloud cover compared to HUF and BMG. Wind will be southwest and south less than 10 knots overnight and become northwest 11z-14z as the cold front moves through from the northwest. Wind speeds will increase to around 12 knots in the wake of the front with gusts to around 20 knots after 17z. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...MRD/JAS SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...MK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 147 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 859 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Widely scattered showers will remain possible through the early evening, mainly along and southeast of US-24. Cooler air will work in later tonight into Thursday behind a cold front which may generate a few showers. Lows tonight will drop into the 60s, with highs on Thursday ranging between the mid 70s and low 80s. Fair weather conditions are then expected Friday into the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds in. && .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Widely scattered showers on northern fringe of outflow bubble near the Fort Wayne area will continue to weaken/fall apart early this evening...leaving a mainly dry/quiet night for most. Convection across east-central/northeast WI on leading edge of a vigorous upper level circulation/cold front will continue east into MI along instability gradient tonight. This activity may clip our far northern zones by the early overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Near term convective trends will be the main item of interest for the short term period. Cu has become increasingly agitated across the area this morning as influences from shallow morning outflow have diminished. A rather sharp instability gradient exists across the area with 100 mb MLCAPES maximized across southwest portions of the forecast area at 2500 J/KG per SPC mesoanalysis. This seems to correlate fairly well to modified regional AMDAR soundings of comparable instability magnitude early this afternoon. A low amplitude short wave is also impinging on northwest Indiana at current time and should aid in convective initiation over next 1-2 hours. Enhanced westerly flow off lake Michigan appears to have set up a couple of favored enhanced cumulus bands just south of Route 6 corridor which also may grow into isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon. Not much has changed in terms of nature of severe threat, with moderate to strong instability and weak to moderate shear still pointing toward at least an isolated severe potential in the 20Z-01Z timeframe as aforementioned wave tracks across the area during peak instability. The greatest risk of a severe thunderstorm late afternoon/early evening appears to be generally along and south of the Route 24 corridor. A secondary area of possible concern may need to be monitored for late evening/early portions of overnight as additional clusters of storms are expected to develop across central Wisconsin this afternoon downstream of increasing diffluence with potent upper low/upper jet streak. These storms may evolve into a convective cluster, but still a good deal of uncertainty as to propagation of these storms. With greater MUCAPES likely centered across southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, would suspect some concurrent upwind/downwind propagation is possible with potential upstream WI convection this evening. Still possible that far northern locations could be clipped by southern extent of this convection late evening/overnight, with some gusty winds as the main threat. Upper low will shift southeast across the region on Thursday with strongest synoptic forcing across eastern half in the morning, where have maintained low to mid chance PoPs. Otherwise, Thursday will feature increasing northwest winds as cool front track across the area with mainly dry conditions developing across entire CWA in the afternoon. Exception could be across the far east, where some deformation-forced showers could linger into Thursday evening. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016 The Friday through Sunday period should feature mainly dry conditions as rather stagnant and amplifying longwave pattern allows sfc high pressure to remain anchored across the region. It still appears as though a stronger upper wave will dampen central CONUS upper ridge early next week driving next cool front southward. Until this time, temperatures will gradually moderate through the weekend with highs back around 90 for Sunday/Monday. The end of the period should feature a transition back to more seasonable temperatures behind this front. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 145 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Cdfnt will move across nrn IN this morning. Tstms along the front over srn MI should remain n-ne of the terminals with a dry fropa expected at both sbn and fwa. Post frontal stratus with mvfr/ifr cigs expected to overspread the area this morning as cyclonic flow strengthens behind the front in association with deepening sfc low. These low cigs should cont this aftn before drier air moves in this evening scattering clouds out. NW winds expected to gust into the 20- 25kt range today. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Steinwedel SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1055 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1050 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 High pressure will continue to provide sunny skies through this afternoon. Warmer conditions are in store through this weekend with modest humidity levels. The next chance of rain will be late Monday or Monday night as another cold front approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday in advance of this front. Low temperatures tonight will be around 60 degrees. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Quiet weather to continue this afternoon with little to no change needed to previous forecast. Regional AMDAR soundings suggest mixing low levels should provide highs around 80 degree mark, and when adding potential of some superadiabatic lapse rates given dry air mass and dry near sfc conditions, highs in the low-mid 80s still appear to be on track. Northeast winds to continue to gradually increase in gustiness as mixed layer deepens with some gusts into the 15 to 20 mph range this afternoon. Some potential of few, flat high based afternoon cu, but pronounced large scale subsidence should provide mainly sunny skies. A late morning ZFP update is not currently planned. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 420 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 An upper low over east Ohio was moving out of the region early this morning. Much drier air was spreading into the area from the north behind this system. Skies will continue to clear early this morning as drier air combines with subsidence to bring sunny skies. Temperatures should be able to dip into the 50s tonight with a cool northeast flow. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 419 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Temperatures will be warming again this weekend as return flow becomes established. Kept storms out of the forecast through Sunday. The latest NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings support a substantial subsidence inversion base with very warm mid level temperatures. The relatively dry atmosphere with precipitation below the 50 percentile and nothing to focus or force convection should prevent storm formation. A cold front will move south across the area about Monday night. Still some question concerning storm coverage given at least initially warm mid level temperatures. Precipitable water values increase substantially and should be enough for at least a broken line of storms over northern areas. Have raised storm chances a little in line with the latest model blend. Otherwise, a large negative height anomaly will become established briefly over the forecast area during the middle of next week. Cooler and drier air will spread back into the area with highs in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 624 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Most of the low clouds have dissipated over nrn IN and dry air movg in from the ne today should continue clear skies and vfr conditions through the period. NE winds will be fairly brisk today with aftn gusts 20-25kt. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...Skipper LONG TERM...Skipper AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 630 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 High pressure both aloft and at the surface will keep conditions dry across Central Indiana through the weekend and into Monday. Above normal temperatures will prevail through the period with highs topping off in the mid to upper 80s. It won`t be until Monday night when the pattern changes as a cold front moves through the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms along with lower temperatures will accompany the front. The normal to slightly below normal temperatures will continue through the extended period. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Strong ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will result in mostly clear skies tonight. Time cross sections are representative of this with dry profiles at all levels. Meanwhile, overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s/lower 60s, stuck close to guidance. && .SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 The main focus of the short term period will be the above normal temperatures as high pressure dominates both the upper and lower levels. Daytime highs through the period will climb into the upper 80s/low 90s with dry conditions, trended toward the slightly warmer NAM. Meanwhile, overnight lows will increase from the low 60s to upper 60s through the period. && .LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/... Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. Upper flow will remain northwest through most of the Long Term. This will allow a cold front to move through Monday night and Tuesday, bringing chances for rain. Tuesday night on should remain dry with drier and cooler air flowing into the area. Some models try to bring in low chances for rain Friday with a warm front, but am not confident to add PoPs that far out. Temperatures will cool to near or below average through the period. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 180000Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 630 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 VFR through the period. Few cumulus may linger an hour or two over southern sections. Otherwise... it will be clear as high pressure builds southeast across the great lakes. Model soundings indicate a very dry air mass and do not expect any fog issues overnight. Northeast winds up to 8 knots this evening will become light overnight and east at 10 knots or less Saturday. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TDUD NEAR TERM...TDUD SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 630 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 High pressure both aloft and at the surface will keep conditions dry across Central Indiana through the weekend and into Monday. Above normal temperatures will prevail through the period with highs topping off in the mid to upper 80s. It won`t be until Monday night when the pattern changes as a cold front moves through the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms along with lower temperatures will accompany the front. The normal to slightly below normal temperatures will continue through the extended period. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Strong ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will result in mostly clear skies tonight. Time cross sections are representative of this with dry profiles at all levels. Meanwhile, overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s/lower 60s, stuck close to guidance. && .SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 The main focus of the short term period will be the above normal temperatures as high pressure dominates both the upper and lower levels. Daytime highs through the period will climb into the upper 80s/low 90s with dry conditions, trended toward the slightly warmer NAM. Meanwhile, overnight lows will increase from the low 60s to upper 60s through the period. && .LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/... Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. Upper flow will remain northwest through most of the Long Term. This will allow a cold front to move through Monday night and Tuesday, bringing chances for rain. Tuesday night on should remain dry with drier and cooler air flowing into the area. Some models try to bring in low chances for rain Friday with a warm front, but am not confident to add PoPs that far out. Temperatures will cool to near or below average through the period. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 180000Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 630 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 VFR through the period. Few cumulus may linger an hour or two over southern sections. Otherwise... it will be clear as high pressure builds southeast across the great lakes. Model soundings indicate a very dry air mass and do not expect any fog issues overnight. Northeast winds up to 8 knots this evening will become light overnight and east at 10 knots or less Saturday. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TDUD NEAR TERM...TDUD SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 423 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .UPDATE... Aviation section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 High pressure both aloft and at the surface will keep conditions dry across Central Indiana through the weekend and into Monday. Above normal temperatures will prevail through the period with highs topping off in the mid to upper 80s. It won`t be until Monday night when the pattern changes as a cold front moves through the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms along with lower temperatures will accompany the front. The normal to slightly below normal temperatures will continue through the extended period. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Strong ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will result in mostly clear skies tonight. Time cross sections are representative of this with dry profiles at all levels. Meanwhile, overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s/lower 60s, stuck close to guidance. && .SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 The main focus of the short term period will be the above normal temperatures as high pressure dominates both the upper and lower levels. Daytime highs through the period will climb into the upper 80s/low 90s with dry conditions, trended toward the slightly warmer NAM. Meanwhile, overnight lows will increase from the low 60s to upper 60s through the period. && .LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/... Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. Upper flow will remain northwest through most of the Long Term. This will allow a cold front to move through Monday night and Tuesday, bringing chances for rain. Tuesday night on should remain dry with drier and cooler air flowing into the area. Some models try to bring in low chances for rain Friday with a warm front, but am not confident to add PoPs that far out. Temperatures will cool to near or below average through the period. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 172100Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 423 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Minor updates made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions. No other changes are needed at this time. Previous aviation discussion follows... VFR conditions expected. Few to scattered cumulus will move near KIND and KBMG early this afternoon. Otherwise, dry air will continue to flow into the area. This will provide clear skies tonight and Saturday as well as prevent any fog formation overnight. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TDUD NEAR TERM...TDUD SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...50/JH
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 351 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 345 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 High pressure will continue to bring quiet weather to the area through the weekend. Warm conditions will persist through the weekend, with temperatures expected into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday. Another cold front is expected to track across the area Monday night into Tuesday bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid conditions are expected ahead of this front Monday, before becoming cooler and less humid for the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Quiet, dry weather to continue through the short term period as a broad low level anticyclone maintains its influence. Easterly flow will persist through Saturday night which will result in little in the way of significant thermal advections through Saturday night. Large scale subsidence will maintain clear skies tonight, and with a day of fairly deep mixing today, not expecting patchy fog to be as prevalent as last night. Clear skies and diminishing winds this evening should allow for lows to drop into the 55 to 60 range, with some localized lower 50s a possibility for favored cool spots. Mostly sunny skies to continue for Saturday with very slight modification of air mass and full insolation may see high temps slightly higher than today, generally in the mid 80s or possibly upper 80s. Low level flow will begin to veer Saturday night into Sunday allowing for weak low level warm advection, and some weak low level moisture advection. Moisture transport will be initially limited due to influence of anticyclone to the east, which will keep more notable low level moisture transport confined to the Plains states. Heat and humidity should be a bit more noticeable on Sunday however with heat indices topping out around 90. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 By Monday, low level moisture transport should strengthen as low level thetae ridge begins to advect east/northeastward from the Mid Ms River Valley. Bulk of mid/upper level forcing will remain well northwest of the area for first part of Monday. Some guidance depicting some light QPF across the area early Monday in relation to this advective forcing but will keep morning period dry with instability expected to be meager due to lingering influence of subsidence inversion. Still plenty of questions about quality of moisture return through Monday afternoon but moderate instability may set up across the far north/northwest portions of the forecast area. Northern locations also will be in closer proximity to southern periphery of stronger forcing with upper level wave tracking across the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. Have kept likely PoPs in place for northern two thirds of the forecast area Monday night due to glancing impact from wave to the north, better moisture pooling with associated approaching front, and synoptic pattern favoring broad low level confluence. Some potential may exist for strong storms late Monday afternoon/Monday evening across the north on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies but still plenty of uncertain on frontal timing/instability magnitude. Front should be somewhat progressive through the area into Tuesday morning, so not overly optimistic at this point in significant relief from the dry conditions across most of the area, and this period does appear to be the only notable chance of precip throughout period. Overall model consensus dProg/Dt suggests a slightly faster frontal progression for Tuesday, with conditions drying out from northwest to southeast during the day. Cooler/less humid conditions in store for remainder of the period with some moderation expected toward day 7, although a large model spread in the upper height pattern by this time lends to a low confidence temp forecast for Days 6-7. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 126 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Winds will be a bit on the gusty side through sunset. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...Fisher Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 336 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 High pressure both aloft and at the surface will keep conditions dry across Central Indiana through the weekend and into Monday. Above normal temperatures will prevail through the period with highs topping off in the mid to upper 80s. It won`t be until Monday night when the pattern changes as a cold front moves through the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms along with lower temperatures will accompany the front. The normal to slightly below normal temperatures will continue through the extended period. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Strong ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will result in mostly clear skies tonight. Time cross sections are representative of this with dry profiles at all levels. Meanwhile, overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s/lower 60s, stuck close to guidance. && .SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 The main focus of the short term period will be the above normal temperatures as high pressure dominates both the upper and lower levels. Daytime highs through the period will climb into the upper 80s/low 90s with dry conditions, trended toward the slightly warmer NAM. Meanwhile, overnight lows will increase from the low 60s to upper 60s through the period. && .LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/... Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. Upper flow will remain northwest through most of the Long Term. This will allow a cold front to move through Monday night and Tuesday, bringing chances for rain. Tuesday night on should remain dry with drier and cooler air flowing into the area. Some models try to bring in low chances for rain Friday with a warm front, but am not confident to add PoPs that far out. Temperatures will cool to near or below average through the period. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 171800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1236 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 VFR conditions expected. Few to scattered cumulus will move near KIND and KBMG early this afternoon. Otherwise, dry air will continue to flow into the area. This will provide clear skies tonight and Saturday as well as prevent any fog formation overnight. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TDUD NEAR TERM...TDUD SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 215 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 350 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Warmth will build once again over the weekend as a broad ridge of high pressure strengthens and expands over much of the country. This ridge will prevent any precipitation through the weekend. As the ridge retreats westward early next week, an upper level disturbance and associated front will drop into the region, bringing somewhat cooler temperatures for much of next week, and potentially thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... Issued at 958 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 UPDATE... Gradual clearing throughout the day can be expected with a large ridge of high pressure aloft and at the surface. Current forecast is on track, so no changes. Current temps across the area are generally in the low 70s and are still projected to top off in the low to upper 80s this afternoon. Updated grids have been sent. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Cloud cover associated with the tail end of an upper level disturbance is passing through the area this morning. It shows some signs of gradually dissipating, and expect that skies will be partly cloudy early, before clearing. Consensus numbers appear reasonable for max temps today. Ample sunshine should make the mid 80s well within reach across most of the area today. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Issued at 350 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep weather throughout the weekend dry, and skies clear. This leaves temperatures as the significant forecast variable. Consensus numbers appear reasonable throughout save for being slightly too cool late in the weekend. Temps should climb a bit each day, reaching the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Fortunately, dewpoints will be somewhat lower than a few days ago, which will limit heat index values and resultant heat stress threat. && .LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/... Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. Upper flow will remain northwest through most of the Long Term. This will allow a cold front to move through Monday night and Tuesday, bringing chances for rain. Tuesday night on should remain dry with drier and cooler air flowing into the area. Some models try to bring in low chances for rain Friday with a warm front, but am not confident to add PoPs that far out. Temperatures will cool to near or below average through the period. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 171800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1236 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 VFR conditions expected. Few to scattered cumulus will move near KIND and KBMG early this afternoon. Otherwise, dry air will continue to flow into the area. This will provide clear skies tonight and Saturday as well as prevent any fog formation overnight. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 215 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 350 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Warmth will build once again over the weekend as a broad ridge of high pressure strengthens and expands over much of the country. This ridge will prevent any precipitation through the weekend. As the ridge retreats westward early next week, an upper level disturbance and associated front will drop into the region, bringing somewhat cooler temperatures for much of next week, and potentially thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... Issued at 958 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 UPDATE... Gradual clearing throughout the day can be expected with a large ridge of high pressure aloft and at the surface. Current forecast is on track, so no changes. Current temps across the area are generally in the low 70s and are still projected to top off in the low to upper 80s this afternoon. Updated grids have been sent. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Cloud cover associated with the tail end of an upper level disturbance is passing through the area this morning. It shows some signs of gradually dissipating, and expect that skies will be partly cloudy early, before clearing. Consensus numbers appear reasonable for max temps today. Ample sunshine should make the mid 80s well within reach across most of the area today. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Issued at 350 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep weather throughout the weekend dry, and skies clear. This leaves temperatures as the significant forecast variable. Consensus numbers appear reasonable throughout save for being slightly too cool late in the weekend. Temps should climb a bit each day, reaching the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Fortunately, dewpoints will be somewhat lower than a few days ago, which will limit heat index values and resultant heat stress threat. && .LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/... Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. Upper flow will remain northwest through most of the Long Term. This will allow a cold front to move through Monday night and Tuesday, bringing chances for rain. Tuesday night on should remain dry with drier and cooler air flowing into the area. Some models try to bring in low chances for rain Friday with a warm front, but am not confident to add PoPs that far out. Temperatures will cool to near or below average through the period. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 171800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1236 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 VFR conditions expected. Few to scattered cumulus will move near KIND and KBMG early this afternoon. Otherwise, dry air will continue to flow into the area. This will provide clear skies tonight and Saturday as well as prevent any fog formation overnight. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...50
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 127 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1050 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 High pressure will continue to provide sunny skies through this afternoon. Warmer conditions are in store through this weekend with modest humidity levels. The next chance of rain will be late Monday or Monday night as another cold front approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and Monday in advance of this front. Low temperatures tonight will be around 60 degrees. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Quiet weather to continue this afternoon with little to no change needed to previous forecast. Regional AMDAR soundings suggest mixing low levels should provide highs around 80 degree mark, and when adding potential of some superadiabatic lapse rates given dry air mass and dry near sfc conditions, highs in the low-mid 80s still appear to be on track. Northeast winds to continue to gradually increase in gustiness as mixed layer deepens with some gusts into the 15 to 20 mph range this afternoon. Some potential of few, flat high based afternoon cu, but pronounced large scale subsidence should provide mainly sunny skies. A late morning ZFP update is not currently planned. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 420 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 An upper low over east Ohio was moving out of the region early this morning. Much drier air was spreading into the area from the north behind this system. Skies will continue to clear early this morning as drier air combines with subsidence to bring sunny skies. Temperatures should be able to dip into the 50s tonight with a cool northeast flow. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 419 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Temperatures will be warming again this weekend as return flow becomes established. Kept storms out of the forecast through Sunday. The latest NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings support a substantial subsidence inversion base with very warm mid level temperatures. The relatively dry atmosphere with precipitation below the 50 percentile and nothing to focus or force convection should prevent storm formation. A cold front will move south across the area about Monday night. Still some question concerning storm coverage given at least initially warm mid level temperatures. Precipitable water values increase substantially and should be enough for at least a broken line of storms over northern areas. Have raised storm chances a little in line with the latest model blend. Otherwise, a large negative height anomaly will become established briefly over the forecast area during the middle of next week. Cooler and drier air will spread back into the area with highs in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 126 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2016 Winds will be a bit on the gusty side through sunset. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...Skipper LONG TERM...Skipper AVIATION...Fisher Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana