Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/26/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEK BRINGING OCCASIONALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THE FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE TOWARDS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... THE LARGE AND STRONG SPRINGTIME WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH AZ TONIGHT...AND EXIT INTO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS DRY BUT PACKED COLD ADVECTION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR MUCH COOLER WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SECOND AND WETTER SYSTEM IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY. STRONG GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WERE COMMONLY IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE WERE SEEN DIMINISHING IN SPEED AT 8 PM MST. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WIND TUESDAY. SINCE REGIONAL WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA... AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST HAVE ENDED...THE WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED EARLY...I.E. 8 PM MST. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY UPDATES WILL BE TO TAILOR PRODUCTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...306 PM MST... POTENT SPRING TROUGH AND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DUST LOFTED AND CROSSING AREA ROADWAYS IN THE USUAL HOT SPOTS AND A TIGHTLY PACKED BOUNDARY BETWEEN DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW AND NARROW MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS HAVE DIPPED AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS...WHILE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STRONG 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND LIMITED BUT NARROW MOISTURE BAND HAS ALLOWED SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AZ AND THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GUSTED IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH FOR MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT SITES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER JET STREAK AND A SECONDARY VORT MAX CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS AZ. INITIAL VORT/FRONT BOUNDARY CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL AZ NOW...WITH A SECONDARY POCKET OF LL TO ML FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COMING THROUGH WITH THAT SECOND VORT LOBE TIMED INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE SECONDARY VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO SOUTHERN CA WHILE PIVOTING/BUCKLING THE UL JET AND PVU GRADIENT/BOUNDARY BACK ACROSS CENTRAL AZ DURING THE EVENING...KEEPING STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST WELL AFTER SUNSET. CAA INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMO COLUMN...LATEST 500MB TEMPS IN THE -22 TO -24 C RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS...WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN SPITE OF CONTINUALLY MIXED CONDITIONS WITH THE WINDS. THE COLD CORE ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VERY NARROW MOISTURE BOUNDARY COULD GEN UP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS THE PVU BAND BUCKLES ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE SUBSIDENCE FILLS IN BEHIND THE SECOND VORT BAND AND BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE AREA. WHERE PHOENIX OBSERVED POTENTIALLY THEIR FIRST 70F LOW TEMP OF THE YEAR...MORNING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 DEGREES COOLER. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY EJECT THE CIRCULATION CENTER EASTWARD ON TUESDAY IN A NEGATIVE TILT FASHION...SUPPORTING AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE SOUTHWEST...A DAMPENED SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY PREDOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT PARTIALLY REBOUND AHEAD OF ANOTHER COMBINATION OF DEEPENING VORTICITY CENTERS. NUMERICAL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE DISPLAYS A SURPRISINGLY SMALL SPREAD YIELDING GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT READINGS WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CATEGORY. WHILE THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL UNDERSTANDABLE DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF DISCRETE FEATURES INCORPORATED IN THE WAVE TRAIN. TRENDS AMONG MODELS SEEMS TO BE SIDING TOWARDS A MORE RAPID APPROACH AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER CNTRL/NRN ARIZONA THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN A 110+KT JET RAPIDLY TRANSLATING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ALSO PREFER THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION SUGGESTING 2 DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTERS CAPTURED IN THE FLOW REGIME AND ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE IS NOT OPTIMAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME MOISTURE BEING SWEPT INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COMBINATION OF THE ANOMALOUS COLD CORE SPREADING OVER 5 G/KG BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES YIELDING AROUND 200 J/KG MLCAPE DURING PEAK HEATING. GIVEN A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE SWLY WIND COMPONENT ADDING ADDITIONAL LIFT...A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE SPREAD GROWS SOMEWHAT LARGER BY THE WEEKEND THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE ENERGY DIGGING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND REINFORCING LOWER HEIGHTS. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT GET TOO OVERZEALOUS WITH RAINFALL CHANCES OR MAGNITUDE OF COOLING YET IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AGAIN GRACE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL... THROUGH 22Z TUE...POST COLD FRONTAL WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... THROUGH 22Z TUE...POST COLD FRONTAL WEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...ELEVATED HUMIDITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DRY CONDITIONS AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...TO RETURN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES REMAINING A BIT STRONGER THAN NORMAL...AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD TO BRING BACK COOLER TEMPERATURES...ELEVATED WINDS AND HUMIDITIES...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/NOLTE/MO AVIATION...PERCHA FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
930 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 .DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY FOR THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY FORMED IN CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY. AIR MASS WAS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG WITH MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE AND THE SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE STRONGER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PORTION OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY IS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY WITH MARGINAL OVER AREAS SOUTH TO A PORT LAVACA TO LAREDO LINE. FORECAST MENTIONS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN REGION SIMILAR TO TODAY. MADE MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER TO REFLECT LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THAT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. && .MARINE...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SCA FOR GULF WATERS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/ DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION...CIGS OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD STAY OR BECOME MVFR AS THE SUN SETS...THEN WILL APPROACH OR FALL BELOW MVFR (IFR) AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY UP AND HELP PROVIDE A BETTER MIXING...WHICH FOR TUESDAY`S CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO NEAR VFR IN THE AFTERNOON KALI AND KVCT...KCRP MAY BE QUESTIONABLE. GFS IS SUGGESTING VFR CONDITIONS WHILE NAM IS SAYING MVFR CONTINUING AT KCRP AND KVCT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AM GOING TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE MVFR CONTINUING FOR TOMORROW...GIVEN THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND AREA HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE VFR TODAY (BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ON TUESDAY TOO). WINDS WILL BE UP HOWEVER...AND DID INCLUDE GUSTS IN THE EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE GIVEN THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND EXPECTED TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT. NO PRECIPITATION IN THE TERMINALS AGAIN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 75 87 73 90 73 / 10 10 10 20 10 VICTORIA 72 86 71 89 70 / 10 10 40 30 10 LAREDO 74 98 71 97 71 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 73 92 72 93 71 / 10 20 10 20 10 ROCKPORT 76 85 75 87 73 / 10 10 20 20 10 COTULLA 72 94 68 92 68 / 20 20 20 10 10 KINGSVILLE 73 91 73 93 72 / 10 10 10 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 76 85 75 86 73 / 10 10 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ TMT/89...SHORT TERM
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 929 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 .UPDATE... Updated forecast for the expiration of today`s Red Flag Warning. && .DISCUSSION... With the loss of daytime heating as well as a decrease in wind speeds, the Red Flag Warning that was in effect through this evening for the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast New Mexico Plains, and the Van Horn and Highway 54 corridor has been allowed to expire. The remainder of the forecast looks to be on track, thus no other changes were needed at this time. Updated products will be out shortly. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/ DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. AVIATION... Winds are still mostly around 15kts sustained at TAF sites and are expected to decrease to around 10kts around 01Z, except CNM where the winds may stay up thru most of the night. Stronger winds are again occurring today across the GDP Mtns and light low flying AIRCRAFT may experience severe turbulence near the GDP Mtns thru the early evening. Otherwise VFR overnight with stronger w-sw winds expected at all TAF sites for Tue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 60 82 51 81 / 0 0 10 0 Carlsbad 58 76 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 63 93 57 90 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Stockton 59 85 53 85 / 0 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 54 66 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 53 73 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 47 75 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 59 83 53 84 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 60 82 53 84 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 58 83 50 86 / 0 0 10 0 && .MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NM...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Tuesday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains. Wind Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday night for Eddy County Plains. TX...High Wind Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Tuesday to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains. Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area- Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley- Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. High Wind Watch from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through late Tuesday night for Davis/Apache Mountains Area. Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST /00Z/AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE TO ADD THE LAST SIX HOURS FROM 18Z ON THE 26TH THROUGH 00Z ON THE 27TH. THE MAIN ISSUES ARE CEILINGS AND WIND. MVFR CEILING UNDERWAY IN A BAND NEAR THE COAST AND HAS SPREAD TO KBRO...ALREADY A HAIR BELOW 2K FEET. 3-HOURLY MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SEEM FAIRLY ON TARGET...SUGGESTING CEILINGS COULD NEAR 1200 FEET BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT KBRO...SO BROUGHT VALUES DOWN TO BROAD BRUSH. FORECAST A BIT TRICKY OVERNIGHT FOR CEILINGS IN ALL AREAS...WITH INHERITED VALUES JUST INTO IFR RANGE /900 FEET/ POSSIBLY A SHADE TOO LOW GIVEN EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF 14-16 KNOT WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS 25 TO 27 KNOT SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER. FOR NOW HELD ONTO THE FORECAST BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE VERY CLOSE. AS FOR FUZZY HAZE...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PERIODS OF 6 MILES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK BUT LEFT AS P6SM FOR NOW. FOG NOT A FACTOR IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. FOR TUESDAY...WINDS PICK UP NICELY AS CLOUDS ERODE RATHER QUICKLY. KBRO LIKELY THE LAST TO GO JUST BEFORE NOON THOUGH PESKY MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THEY DID TODAY...COURTESY OF ANY SEA BREEZE HELP TO BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST RATHER THAN REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. FULL SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE INVERSION LAYER WILL KICK SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...THOUGH SPEEDS MAY DECREASE AT MCALLEN AS INVERSION IS ERASED IN THE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT. KEPT AT 20 KNOTS FOR NOW BUT COULD DIP TO 15 KNOTS BY 20/21Z WITH HEAT SPIKE. 52/BSG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THERE WAS A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT ON THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING DUE TO MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WHICH ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THAT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH TUESDAY THEN EMERGES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN EVENTUAL 993MB SFC LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS JUST THAT...LOW LEVEL. PWATS WILL INCREASE FROM THE 1.18 INCHES ON THIS MORNING SOUNDING BUT THE MID LEVELS ARE SO DRY AND MOST FORCING WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREA THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA. WHAT THERE WILL BE THOUGH IS HEAT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE HIGHS TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH LOW 100S MAINLY ACROSS ZAPATA AND WESTERN STARR COUNTIES AND 90S ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE 12Z MODEL SUITE OUTPUT SHOWS LITTLE VARIATION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO TRACK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS SHOW EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER WITH RAIN POTENTIAL SHOWN TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN IS ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES AND TIMING OF THE RAIN IS BELOW AVERAGE. MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE HEAT AND HEAT INDICES WHERE TEMPERATURES AND FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING 100+ DEGREES MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A DAY TO DAY ANALYSIS OF THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE CAREFULLY WATCHED WITH THEIR LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST. FRONTS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIMING REACHING THIS FAR SOUTH THIS TIME OF YEAR HOWEVER CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG THEM FARTHER NORTH COULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO ALLOW FRONTS AND/OR THUNDERSTORM LINE/CLUSTERS TO MOVE SOUTH. THIS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY WHERE POPS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 3.3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT TIMES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA MADRE ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO RELAX FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THEN RESUMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. SEAS TO BUILD AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 615 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Winds are still mostly around 15kts sustained at TAF sites and are expected to decrease to around 10kts around 01Z, except CNM where the winds may stay up thru most of the night. Stronger winds are again occurring today across the GDP Mtns and light low flying AIRCRAFT may experience severe turbulence near the GDP Mtns thru the early evening. Otherwise VFR overnight with stronger w-sw winds expected at all TAF sites for Tue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 60 82 51 81 / 0 0 10 0 Carlsbad 58 76 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 63 93 57 90 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Stockton 59 85 53 85 / 0 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 54 66 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 53 73 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 47 75 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 59 83 53 84 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 60 82 53 84 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 58 83 50 86 / 0 0 10 0 && .MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NM...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Tuesday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains. Wind Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday night for Eddy County Plains. TX...High Wind Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Tuesday to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area- Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley- Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for Davis/Apache Mountains Area. Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOUD BASES ARE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FEET...WITH 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING OVERCAST SKIES. NOT ANTICIPATING CEILINGS TO DROP BELOW THE 1.5K MARK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE. TOMORROW...VFR WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE SLIPPING BACK INTO MVFR TERRITORY BEGINNING NEAR SUNSET OR SHORTLY THERE AFTERWARDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST /00Z/AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE TO ADD THE LAST SIX HOURS FROM 18Z ON THE 26TH THROUGH 00Z ON THE 27TH. THE MAIN ISSUES ARE CEILINGS AND WIND. MVFR CEILING UNDERWAY IN A BAND NEAR THE COAST AND HAS SPREAD TO KBRO...ALREADY A HAIR BELOW 2K FEET. 3-HOURLY MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SEEM FAIRLY ON TARGET...SUGGESTING CEILINGS COULD NEAR 1200 FEET BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT KBRO...SO BROUGHT VALUES DOWN TO BROAD BRUSH. FORECAST A BIT TRICKY OVERNIGHT FOR CEILINGS IN ALL AREAS...WITH INHERITED VALUES JUST INTO IFR RANGE /900 FEET/ POSSIBLY A SHADE TOO LOW GIVEN EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF 14-16 KNOT WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS 25 TO 27 KNOT SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER. FOR NOW HELD ONTO THE FORECAST BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE VERY CLOSE. AS FOR FUZZY HAZE...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PERIODS OF 6 MILES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK BUT LEFT AS P6SM FOR NOW. FOG NOT A FACTOR IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. FOR TUESDAY...WINDS PICK UP NICELY AS CLOUDS ERODE RATHER QUICKLY. KBRO LIKELY THE LAST TO GO JUST BEFORE NOON THOUGH PESKY MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THEY DID TODAY...COURTESY OF ANY SEA BREEZE HELP TO BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST RATHER THAN REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. FULL SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE INVERSION LAYER WILL KICK SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...THOUGH SPEEDS MAY DECREASE AT MCALLEN AS INVERSION IS ERASED IN THE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT. KEPT AT 20 KNOTS FOR NOW BUT COULD DIP TO 15 KNOTS BY 20/21Z WITH HEAT SPIKE. 52/BSG PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THERE WAS A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT ON THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING DUE TO MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WHICH ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THAT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH TUESDAY THEN EMERGES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN EVENTUAL 993MB SFC LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS JUST THAT...LOW LEVEL. PWATS WILL INCREASE FROM THE 1.18 INCHES ON THIS MORNING SOUNDING BUT THE MID LEVELS ARE SO DRY AND MOST FORCING WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREA THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA. WHAT THERE WILL BE THOUGH IS HEAT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE HIGHS TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH LOW 100S MAINLY ACROSS ZAPATA AND WESTERN STARR COUNTIES AND 90S ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE 12Z MODEL SUITE OUTPUT SHOWS LITTLE VARIATION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO TRACK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS SHOW EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER WITH RAIN POTENTIAL SHOWN TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN IS ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES AND TIMING OF THE RAIN IS BELOW AVERAGE. MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE HEAT AND HEAT INDICES WHERE TEMPERATURES AND FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING 100+ DEGREES MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A DAY TO DAY ANALYSIS OF THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE CAREFULLY WATCHED WITH THEIR LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST. FRONTS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIMING REACHING THIS FAR SOUTH THIS TIME OF YEAR HOWEVER CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG THEM FARTHER NORTH COULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO ALLOW FRONTS AND/OR THUNDERSTORM LINE/CLUSTERS TO MOVE SOUTH. THIS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY WHERE POPS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 3.3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT TIMES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA MADRE ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO RELAX FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THEN RESUMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. SEAS TO BUILD AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1146 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Generally south to southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph will become west and increase to 20 to 35 mph with higher gusts by late Tuesday morning and continue Tuesday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 929 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/ UPDATE... Updated forecast for the expiration of today`s Red Flag Warning. DISCUSSION... With the loss of daytime heating as well as a decrease in wind speeds, the Red Flag Warning that was in effect through this evening for the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast New Mexico Plains, and the Van Horn and Highway 54 corridor has been allowed to expire. The remainder of the forecast looks to be on track, thus no other changes were needed at this time. Updated products will be out shortly. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/ DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. AVIATION... Winds are still mostly around 15kts sustained at TAF sites and are expected to decrease to around 10kts around 01Z, except CNM where the winds may stay up thru most of the night. Stronger winds are again occurring today across the GDP Mtns and light low flying AIRCRAFT may experience severe turbulence near the GDP Mtns thru the early evening. Otherwise VFR overnight with stronger w-sw winds expected at all TAF sites for Tue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 60 82 51 81 / 0 0 10 0 Carlsbad 58 76 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 63 93 57 90 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Stockton 59 85 53 85 / 0 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 54 66 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 53 73 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 47 75 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 59 83 53 84 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 60 82 53 84 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 58 83 50 86 / 0 0 10 0 && .MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains. Wind Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday night for Eddy County Plains. TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains. Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area- Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley- Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. High Wind Watch from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through late Tuesday night for Davis/Apache Mountains Area. Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. && $$ 99/99/12
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