Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/17/16


FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER EACH DAY AS SOUTH WINDS ON THE INCREASE FOR SATURDAY. PROGS SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BRUSH OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...BUT SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS HOLDING WELL WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHEAST COMPONENT WILL INCREASE THE LAKE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 500MB RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME FLATTENING OF THE PATTERN EXPECTED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD ON SUNDAY WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TRICKY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AS OF THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LATER SHIFTS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ON MOST DAYS DURING THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY AFFECT LIGHT AIRCRAFT TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 800FT ASL. GOOD FLYING WEATHER OTHERWISE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 A FEW LOCATIONS SAW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MID 20S ON THURSDAY. WITH CONTINUED WARMING...CAN EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAND REGIONS DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A DRY ADIABAT TO 750 MPH NOTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH ANTICIPATED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE ELEMENTS IN THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....TDH LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......RDM FIRE WEATHER...TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1058 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH 1PM FOR THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF COAST PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. SLOWLY STRENGTHENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING AS OF THIS HOUR WITH SOME HOURLY RAINFALL RATES STARTING TO REACH HONE HALF TO ONE INCH AN HOUR. NO OTHER MAJOR UPDATES OCCURRED THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES ALREADY IN PLACE. PLEASE SEE THE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW ON TODAY`S EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. && .DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE INCREASING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY COULD BE A SIGNAL THAT THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SLOWLY ERODING AS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA FROM SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN SUGGEST A DECENT CAP WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT THE 10AM SOUNDING SUGGESTED A WEAKENING CAP OUT OF KSAT. AS INSTABILITY BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON, WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SITTING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. FARTHER EAST, ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS AIDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE TWO AREAS COULD MERGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT COULD RESULT IN A NEARLY STATIONARY LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THAT LINE WILL LIKELY BE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH AND COULD POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY POSE A RIVER/CREEK AND FLASH FLOODING RISK. PLEASE STAY ALERT TO THE CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. FOR MORE ON THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY EVOLUTION, PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH AN UPDATE TO THAT PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 69 75 66 79 / 100 100 90 70 50 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 68 76 65 79 / 100 100 90 70 50 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 68 76 66 79 / 90 100 90 70 40 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 64 73 64 77 / 100 100 80 60 40 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 65 79 64 84 / 50 40 60 40 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 68 74 65 77 / 100 100 80 60 50 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 68 78 64 81 / 80 70 70 50 30 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 68 75 65 78 / 90 100 90 70 50 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 70 76 68 78 / 90 100 100 80 60 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 68 77 67 80 / 90 100 80 60 40 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 69 78 68 81 / 90 100 80 60 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET... CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE... GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY... LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
120 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .AVIATION... MVFR ACROSS THE I-35 TAF SITES CURRENTLY. VFR OUT IN DRT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVECTION FILLS IN. WILL HAVE PASSING HEAVY STORMS THAT WILL REDUCE VISBY INTO IFR RANGE FOR AUS/SAT/SSF. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A BREAK IN THE OVERALL THREAT. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY OVER IN DRT. DID ADVERTISE SOME MVFR FORMING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP FOR THEM AT THE MOMENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/ UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH 1PM FOR THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF COAST PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. SLOWLY STRENGTHENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING AS OF THIS HOUR WITH SOME HOURLY RAINFALL RATES STARTING TO REACH HONE HALF TO ONE INCH AN HOUR. NO OTHER MAJOR UPDATES OCCURRED THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES ALREADY IN PLACE. PLEASE SEE THE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW ON TODAY`S EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE INCREASING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY COULD BE A SIGNAL THAT THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SLOWLY ERODING AS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA FROM SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN SUGGEST A DECENT CAP WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT THE 10AM SOUNDING SUGGESTED A WEAKENING CAP OUT OF KSAT. AS INSTABILITY BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON, WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SITTING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. FARTHER EAST, ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS AIDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE TWO AREAS COULD MERGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT COULD RESULT IN A NEARLY STATIONARY LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THAT LINE WILL LIKELY BE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH AND COULD POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY POSE A RIVER/CREEK AND FLASH FLOODING RISK. PLEASE STAY ALERT TO THE CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. FOR MORE ON THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY EVOLUTION, PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH AN UPDATE TO THAT PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 69 75 66 79 / 100 100 90 70 50 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 68 76 65 79 / 100 100 90 70 50 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 68 76 66 79 / 90 100 90 70 40 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 64 73 64 77 / 100 100 80 60 40 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 65 79 64 84 / 50 40 60 40 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 68 74 65 77 / 100 100 80 60 50 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 68 78 64 81 / 80 70 70 50 30 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 68 75 65 78 / 90 100 90 70 50 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 70 76 68 78 / 90 100 100 80 60 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 68 77 67 80 / 90 100 80 60 40 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 69 78 68 81 / 90 100 80 60 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET... CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE... GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY... LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH