Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/15/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
342 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CONTINUES SHOWING A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN MOVING SSE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 MPH EXPECTED. MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS GENERALLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY MEAN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RAINFALL TODAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THURSDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT EAST OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING WITH SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE INCREASED INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE BACK INTO THE 70S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL START OFF COOL IN THE 50S...BUT WARM READILY TO BETWEEN 75 AND 80 DEGREES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER FRIDAY NIGHT ENDING THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HOLD LOWS UP TO BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES ON SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...A LARGE AND VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY INVADING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AS A FULL LATITUDE UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER THE WEST COAST...THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AND BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY CREEP EASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS AND HEAVIER RAINS MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER WEST TX AND THE HIGH PLAINS...WE WILL SEE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WE DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE MUCH OF RISK FOR EITHER SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING ...EVEN OUT WEST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE RICH MOISTURE FLUX AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A HAZARD FOR OUTDOOR PLANS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPINGING ON THE WEST COAST LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SHOULD HELP NUDGE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A SLOWER TREND OVERALL WITH IMPACTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL TX...THOUGH AMOUNTS REMAIN IN FLUX. MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...ALONG WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING. IT/S NOT TO SAY AREAS FURTHER NORTH WILL NOT HAVE SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES...BUT FOR NOW CENTRAL TX LOOKS TO BE THE HOT SPOT ON THE MODELS. SO IF YOU/RE PLANNING ON BEING OUTDOORS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...YOU WILL WANT TO CONTINUE MONITORING FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE FORECAST IS REFINED. IT MUST BE STATED THAT THIS IS NOT A SIMILAR SYSTEM TO THOSE THAT GAVE OUR AREA ALL THE SEVERE WEATHER AND LARGE HAIL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT MORE OF A RAIN MAKER WITH THE MAIN EFFECTS ON OUR RIVERS AND LAKES. LOWS WILL TEND TO BE 55-65 DEGREES WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S- MIDDLE 70S DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND MONDAY AND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AS HANDLING OF BOTH THE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES AND ENERGY IN THE WESTERN U.S BEGINS TO DIVERGE. WE/LL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. 05/ && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 100 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016/ /18Z TAFS/ CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS. WHILE A SHOWER OR TWO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS PASSED TO THE NORTH. NORTH DEPARTURES AND NORTHEAST ARRIVALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED...WITH MODERATING ICING ABOVE FL100. IN-TRANSIT AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER LIGHT-TO-MODERATE TURBULENCE FL240-410 IN THE VICINITY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. COOL/MOIST NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE RISE OF CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS DOWNGLIDE ENSUES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING ACTIVITY. THIS MAY MEAN A SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT A BKN VFR DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS DISRUPTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE METROPLEX THIS MORNING...THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE TONIGHT. WITH VFR CONDITIONS AIDING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT WITH IFR CEILINGS IN PLACE...AN ADDITIONAL LINE FOR MVFR VISIBILITY IS UNNECESSARY. HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE INTRODUCED WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGES...PARTICULARLY IF IFR VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW PERSISTING...THE SOUPY SURFACE LAYER MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY. WITH SYNOPTIC-SCALE DOWNGLIDE BEHIND THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM...CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY IMPROVE...AND A BKN/SCT VFR DECK MAY BE IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 75 57 78 62 / 20 5 0 0 10 WACO 55 77 56 80 62 / 10 5 0 0 10 PARIS 52 72 54 74 59 / 30 10 0 5 10 DENTON 53 74 55 77 61 / 20 5 0 0 10 MCKINNEY 52 73 54 76 61 / 20 5 0 0 10 DALLAS 56 75 58 78 63 / 20 5 0 0 10 TERRELL 55 74 55 77 62 / 20 10 0 0 10 CORSICANA 56 75 56 79 62 / 10 10 0 0 10 TEMPLE 55 77 56 80 63 / 10 0 0 0 10 MINERAL WELLS 52 77 55 79 61 / 10 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
100 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS. WHILE A SHOWER OR TWO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS PASSED TO THE NORTH. NORTH DEPARTURES AND NORTHEAST ARRIVALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED...WITH MODERATING ICING ABOVE FL100. IN-TRANSIT AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER LIGHT-TO-MODERATE TURBULENCE FL240-410 IN THE VICINITY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. COOL/MOIST NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE RISE OF CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS DOWNGLIDE ENSUES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING ACTIVITY. THIS MAY MEAN A SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT A BKN VFR DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS DISRUPTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE METROPLEX THIS MORNING...THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE TONIGHT. WITH VFR CONDITIONS AIDING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT WITH IFR CEILINGS IN PLACE...AN ADDITIONAL LINE FOR MVFR VISIBILITY IS UNNECESSARY. HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE INTRODUCED WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGES...PARTICULARLY IF IFR VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW PERSISTING...THE SOUPY SURFACE LAYER MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY. WITH SYNOPTIC-SCALE DOWNGLIDE BEHIND THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM...CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY IMPROVE...AND A BKN/SCT VFR DECK MAY BE IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON. 25 && .UPDATE... A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE THROUGH IS TRACKING EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND SHOULD CONTINUE A DUE EAST TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OK THROUGH THE DAY. H5 TEMPS -17 TO -19 C SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THOSE AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MAINTAIN MID LVL LAPSE RATES 6-7 DEG C/KM ACROSS THESE AREAS. FORCING FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE LESS. THOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE ON REGIONAL RADAR...ANY SMALL ELEVATED REFLECTIVITY VALUES 25-40 DBZ HAVE SHOWN TO BE EFFICIENT WITH HEAVIER RAIN RATES WITH SATURATION ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL INVERSION AND BELOW THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES. HAVE SEEN JUST UNDER 1/4 OF AN INCH IN 10-15 MINS RESULTING IN BRIEF STREET-FLOODING. THAT SAID...MEAN MOTION TO THE NNE IS FAST AND THUS NO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ANY ONE LOCATION FOR ANY DURATION TO CAUSE SERIOUS SHORT-FUSE FLOODING ISSUES. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO BETWEEN 40-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR THE COOLER H5 TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-20 INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE SUBSIDENCE FROM AN EARLIER QLCS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE DAY. FINALLY...CLOUDY SKIES AND SPOTTY RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON IN BEHIND THE SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S POSSIBLE. 05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS APPEARS TO HAVE INTERCEPTED THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS STILL LED TO SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE COOLER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF THE REGION. STILL...IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW-END INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE MODELS ARE GENERATING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WE WILL STICK WITH 20S AND 30S FOR POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE PARKING ITSELF OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE ABRUPT HALT IN ITS FORWARD PROGRESS IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF DAYS OF GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH MAY COME INTO PLAY WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER TOTALS OCCUR. AT THIS TIME WE ARE INDICATING THE HIGHEST POPS TO BE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS COINCIDING WITH THE TIMING OF A PACIFIC- TYPE FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS BASED ON A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING WEST WHILE THE LOW ATTEMPTS TO PUSH EAST. THE RESULT APPEARS TO BE A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS BENEATH AN INTENSIFYING CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS...IT WILL STILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE DAMPENING OUT AND HEADING EAST OF THE PLAINS. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH 69 56 76 57 79 / 30 10 5 0 5 WACO 68 55 77 56 80 / 20 10 5 0 5 PARIS 66 52 73 54 75 / 60 20 5 0 5 DENTON 67 53 75 55 78 / 60 10 5 0 5 MCKINNEY 67 52 74 54 77 / 50 10 5 0 5 DALLAS 68 56 76 58 79 / 40 10 5 0 5 TERRELL 67 55 75 55 78 / 40 20 5 0 5 CORSICANA 68 56 76 56 79 / 20 20 5 0 5 TEMPLE 68 55 77 56 80 / 20 10 5 0 5 MINERAL WELLS 69 52 77 55 79 / 30 5 5 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 25/05
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 QUIET WEATHER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...IN MOST LOCATIONS...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. 12Z MODELS MAINTAINED A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET PUSHED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE STATE. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS WERE DRY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HAVE VERY LOW PERCENTAGE SKY COVER IN THE GRIDS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING WITH A WARMER AIR MASS AND ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY MIXED. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING THE 60S...BUT THE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE MILD TEMPERATURES...AND THE TIMING AND ASSOCIATED PCPN TRENDS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE INTO SATURDAY...WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE FRONT...RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY PCPN ON SUNDAY...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AS THE GFS WEAKENS THE BOUNDARY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG SFC RIDGE OVER THE STATE. WILL ONLY HAVE 20-30 POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY AFFECT LIGHT AIRCRAFT TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 800FT ASL. GOOD FLYING WEATHER OTHERWISE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MG LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH AVIATION.......RDM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER EACH DAY AS SOUTH WINDS ON THE INCREASE FOR SATURDAY. PROGS SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BRUSH OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...BUT SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS HOLDING WELL WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHEAST COMPONENT WILL INCREASE THE LAKE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 500MB RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME FLATTENING OF THE PATTERN EXPECTED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD ON SUNDAY WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TRICKY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AS OF THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LATER SHIFTS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ON MOST DAYS DURING THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY AFFECT LIGHT AIRCRAFT TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 800FT ASL. GOOD FLYING WEATHER OTHERWISE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 A FEW LOCATIONS SAW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MID 20S ON THURSDAY. WITH CONTINUED WARMING...CAN EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAND REGIONS DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A DRY ADIABAT TO 750 MPH NOTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH ANTICIPATED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE ELEMENTS IN THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....TDH LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......RDM FIRE WEATHER...TDH