Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/10/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
203 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE MIGRATING TOWARD CHICAGO. MAY VERY WELL REMOVE THUNDER MENTION SHORTLY DESPITE AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AT LEAST MEAGER LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S HOWEVER DO NOT SUGGEST A GREAT PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED/DEEP CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCALES SEEING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 ...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS... A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL REMAIN OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z BUT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BECAUSE OF THESE SHOWERS...CLOUDS HAVE HUNG AROUND IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK BY DAWN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THIS COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DIVE INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW 20S AND EVEN POSSIBLY THE TEENS BY SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UNUSUALLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING A HARD FREEZE. THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY...AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL RESULT IN BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CARRYING IN MILDER AIR FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THEY WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY ADVECT MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION AS THE FRONT AND ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPROACH. MODELS STILL SUGGEST THE GREATEST POP FOR MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW LONG THE RAIN WILL LINGER. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED AND HAS A STRONGER ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WITH RAIN PERSISTING ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ONLY HAS LIGHT PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHEAST. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION RESULTS IN LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY... AND CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH EVENTUALLY TAKES CONTROL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT PLAYER IS AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROLL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS IT WEAKENING AND PHASING WITH AN IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT RESULT IN MUCH MOISTURE RETURN FOR OUR AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTING OUT FIRST...LEAVING THE SOUTHERN LOW TO LINGER AND PULL MOISTURE/PRECIP BACK NORTH INTO KY. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION RESULTS IN LOW POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY THURSDAY. THE END BIG PICTURE RESULT IS A FAIRLY CONFIDENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GREATLY REDUCED CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 COLD FRONT MIGRATING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING CHICAGO. BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PLAGUE ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. MAY EVEN SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES WHERE MOISTURE CAN LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY NEAR JKL/SJS. DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIFTING CEILINGS BACK TO VFR CRITERIA. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20-25 KNOTS. SHOULD SEE THESE DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS VEERING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN AGAIN PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN APPRECIABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GUSEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
319 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 1.5 PVU FIELDS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EXPLAINS THE LIGHT BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR THAT IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS...IR SATELLITE SHOWS NUMEROUS CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR TODAY...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BUT UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR/RAP/NAM12 ALL FAVOR AREAS NORTH TODAY FOR MOST PRECIP WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE CWA UNDER THE THREAT OF PRECIP. GFS HAS BEEN PERFORMING PRETTY WELL LATELY SO GAVE A NOD TO ITS OUTPUT AND INCLUDED SCHC TO CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. PRECIP WILL GET GOING FROM MIDAFTERNOON ONWARDS WITH BEST COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE EARLY EVENING...6PM OR SO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE LIGHT SO A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND NOT MUCH ELSE. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH SO HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SOME SNOW FALL BUT LIKE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO MTN PASSES. SOME SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UP TO MIDNIGHT AND THEN COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. MONDAY WILL BE AN INBETWEEN DAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER LOW...APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WITH CLOUD COVER BEING A BIT LESS...ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS TIME MODELS INDICATING PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL DRIFT INTO LOWER VALLEYS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 INSTABILITY INCREASES AS THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OVER SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE ISO SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON WEDNESDAY BUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES AND AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THIS TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE HAVE BEEN RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT IS GOING TO DROP AS IT ENTERS THE LOWER 48...SO NOT CONVINCED OF ANY INTRICATE DETAILS AT THIS TIME. PATTERN AT THIS TIME SURE DOES LOOK QUITE WET FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AND THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TAP TODAY INCREASING FROM 18Z ONWARDS WITH BEST COVERAGE FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z OR SO. ILS BREAKPOINTS MAY BE MET BRIEFLY UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS PRECIP TO LAST TOO LONG. AFTER 03Z A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BUT SHOULD NOT POSE A THREAT TO AIRCRAFT OPS. EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH MORE PRECIP EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...JAM AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
330 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 MOISTURE CONTINUED TO SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS MORNING...RISING TEMPERATURES HAD DESTABILIZED THE AIRMASS AND A NEW BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. MODELS INDICATED NORTH SHOULD BE FAVORED BENEATH AN AREA OF STRETCHING DEFORMATION AND THIS APPEARED REASONABLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND MOST ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. HOWEVER... DEFORMATION SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER REGION WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE LOW MOVES FROM ARIZONA ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING THE NIGHT AND MOISTURE WRAPPED CIRCULATION WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE SAN JUAN/S AS WELL. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVES ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THE POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARED EERILY SIMILAR TO TODAY/S SO IT APPEARS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER ARIZONA AND AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW OFF AND ON...THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE REMAINS RATHER MILD AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW DUE TO MILD TEMPERATURES LIMITING IMPACTS ON MOUNTAIN ROADWAYS. AIRMASS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE EARLY SPRING PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE. THE LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY PASSING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE COL BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...STRETCHING DEFORMATION COMBINED WITH DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL COOLING WILL BRING ABOUT AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND RISING TEMPERATURES IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIME OF ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEP AND STRONG PACIFIC STORM MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS CLOSE OFF A SIGNIFICANT LOW WHICH WILL BRING COOL... WET/SNOWY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...EC SOLUTION TAKES THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH THEN FAVORS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN COLORADO. UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. THAT SAID...BOTH SOLUTIONS POINT TO A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT WAS OVER WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL LINGER IN THE VAIL PASS AREA UNTIL AROUND 19Z...BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTH. BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LEAST WILL FORM OVER ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS AND IN THE NORTHERN AND HIGHER CENTRAL VALLEYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z OR SO. ILS BREAKPOINTS MAY BE MET BRIEFLY UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT-LIVED. ALSO AT TIMES MOUNTAINS MAY BE OBSCURED. AFTER 03Z A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST...MAINLY OVER THE COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT POSE A THREAT TO AIRCRAFT OPS...BUT MAY BRIEFLY OBSCURE MOUNTAIN TOPS. EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH MORE PRECIP EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 1.5 PVU FIELDS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EXPLAINS THE LIGHT BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR THAT IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS...IR SATELLITE SHOWS NUMEROUS CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR TODAY...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BUT UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR/RAP/NAM12 ALL FAVOR AREAS NORTH TODAY FOR MOST PRECIP WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE CWA UNDER THE THREAT OF PRECIP. GFS HAS BEEN PERFORMING PRETTY WELL LATELY SO GAVE A NOD TO ITS OUTPUT AND INCLUDED SCHC TO CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. PRECIP WILL GET GOING FROM MIDAFTERNOON ONWARDS WITH BEST COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE EARLY EVENING...6PM OR SO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE LIGHT SO A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND NOT MUCH ELSE. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH SO HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SOME SNOW FALL BUT LIKE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO MTN PASSES. SOME SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UP TO MIDNIGHT AND THEN COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. MONDAY WILL BE AN INBETWEEN DAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER LOW...APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WITH CLOUD COVER BEING A BIT LESS...ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS TIME MODELS INDICATING PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL DRIFT INTO LOWER VALLEYS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 INSTABILITY INCREASES AS THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OVER SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE ISO SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON WEDNESDAY BUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES AND AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THIS TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE HAVE BEEN RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT IS GOING TO DROP AS IT ENTERS THE LOWER 48...SO NOT CONVINCED OF ANY INTRICATE DETAILS AT THIS TIME. PATTERN AT THIS TIME SURE DOES LOOK QUITE WET FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AND THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT WAS OVER WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL LINGER IN THE VAIL PASS AREA UNTIL AROUND 19Z...BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTH. BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LEAST WILL FORM OVER ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS AND IN THE NORTHERN AND HIGHER CENTRAL VALLEYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z OR SO. ILS BREAKPOINTS MAY BE MET BRIEFLY UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT-LIVED. ALSO AT TIMES MOUNTAINS MAY BE OBSCURED. AFTER 03Z A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST...MAINLY OVER THE COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT POSE A THREAT TO AIRCRAFT OPS...BUT MAY BRIEFLY OBSCURE MOUNTAIN TOPS. EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH MORE PRECIP EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...JAM AVIATION...EH