Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/08/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
229 PM PDT WED APR 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...LOCALLY DENSE INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS. THEN A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-FRI) THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LINGERING LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN EXPECTED...BUT WILL DECREASE BY THE EVENING. WILL BE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. A DENSE FOG BANK IS HUGGING THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY COASTS ONCE AGAIN...AND A STIFFER SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP IT THERE LONGER THAN YESTERDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...AMPLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO MONITOR FROM SATELLITE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES WILL CONTINUE STREAMING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...SIGNALING AN ABRUPT WEATHER CHANGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TO AROUND NORMAL ON THURSDAY. ANY DENSE FOG NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL IMPROVE...AS THE FOG PUSHES INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS AND THE MARINE LAYER RAPIDLY DEEPENS. THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE PWATS ARE A HEALTHY 1.25 INCHES...ANY LIFT MECHANISMS ARE LACKING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A HEAR-BUT-NOT- THERE AND OFF-AND-ON-AGAIN SHOWERY REGIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT. THERE IS NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO THUNDERSTORMS SEEM UNLIKELY. WITH ALL THAT SAID HOWEVER...SYSTEMS OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS LIKE THIS HAVE PROVIDED PLENTY OF SURPRISES IN THE PAST...SO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE COAST/VALLEYS (0.01-0.25 INCHES) AND THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS (0.25-0.75 INCHES). EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS IS ALSO VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS THE BEST OF THE PERIOD. WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 7,500 FEET FOR THE MOST PART...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(SAT-WED) A SECOND SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FIRST ON SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. BEING FROM THE NORTH...THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE COLD AIR ALOFT THAN THE FIRST...LEADING TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SHOWER INTENSITIES AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE THAN THE FIRST...WITH PRELIMINARY TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES OVER THE COAST/VALLEYS...AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES FOR FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE 6,000 FOOT RANGE WHICH MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE RESORTS...BUT MAJOR MOUNTAIN ROADS SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED. COMPUTER PROJECTIONS SHOW YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY...THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE INTENSITY. REGARDLESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ON TAP AGAIN. OF ALL THE DAYS IN THE NEXT 7...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS MONDAYS LOW ENOUGH IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES ABOUND TO NO SURPRISE...WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY HAS A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION...06/1600Z. KLAX AT 1500Z...RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW CLOUD BASES AROUND 700 FEET WITH THE TOP OF THE INVERSION NEAR 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF ABOUT 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OR SCATTERED OUT FROM THE COASTAL TAF LOCATIONS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT COASTAL TAF SITES KSBA AND SOUTH STARTING SOMETIME BETWEEN 3Z AND 9Z...KBUR AND KVNY BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z. FOR KBUR AND KVNY...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VFR CONDS PERSIST BEYOND 12Z. KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS THROUGH 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AFTER 12Z. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AFTER 05Z. && .MARINE...06/200 PM. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE SAN PEDRO AND SANTA MONICA BASINS...AND OUT TO CATALINA ISLAND. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM PIERDAS BLANCAS TO POINT CONCEPTION SOMETIME DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...KITTELL AVIATION...SWEET MARINE...SWEET SYNOPSIS...SWETO WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1057 AM PDT WED APR 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR SKIES INLAND FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A COUPLE OF LOWS WILL BRING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON TUESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL START UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-FRI) COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE IT STARTS TO WEAKEN. THE WINDS ARE RESPONDING WITH A LATE MORNING PEAK...AND THERE ARE ENOUGH STATIONS IN CERTAIN ZONES THAT ARE ABOVE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TO WARRANT A MARGINAL ADVISORY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT TO BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY OVER MOSTLY OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A STRONG BUT VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER REMAINS...WHICH IS KEEPING THAT OFFSHORE FLOW AWAY FROM THE COAST. INSIDE THE MARINE LAYER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING A DENSE FOG BANK TOWARD VENTURA COUNTY AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE BEACHES. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT COASTAL TEMPERATURES...BUT HOW FAR INLAND THIS INFLUENCE REACHES IS ANYONES GUESS. THE CENTRAL COAST IS NOT SEEING THAT MARINE LAYER...BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM YESTERDAY IS WEAKER AND MORE EASTERLY TODAY...AND SHOULD TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST INCREDIBLY COMPLICATED...RESULTING IN LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMBERS. EARLY IMPRESSIONS OF THE WET END OF THE WEEK ARE MOSTLY UNCHANGED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK LESS FOR THURSDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...AND SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY. WILL LIKELY BE UPPING POPS AND ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO SATURDAY AS A RESULT. ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE SHARPLY ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHERN CA WEATHER WILL MORE RESEMBLE PORTLAND`S. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO A BROAD NEG TILTED TROF AND WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA. HGTS WILL FALL TO 568 DM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS NO FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THESE SHOWERS SO THEY WILL BE MORE OF THE OFF AND ON HIT AND MISS VARIETY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY UNDER A QUARTER INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 7500 FEET. MAX TEMPS WILL PLUNGE 15 DEGREES OR SO AND MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. A SECOND SYSTEM (THE PARENT SYSTEM FROM THURSDAYS TROF) WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY. IT WILL SWING A VORT LOBE OVER THE AREA AND THE SHOWERS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN ON THURSDAY. THIS VORT LOBE HAS JUST ENOUGH OOMPH TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS OVER L.A. COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE VARIABLE BUT SOME AREAS MAY SEE A THIRD OF AN INCH ESP OVER L.A. COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7500 FEET. .LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE) HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A SECOND SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FIRST...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEING FROM THE NORTH...THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE COLD AIR ALOFT THAN THE FIRST...LEADING TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SHOWER INTENSITIES. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST...A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE WARRANTED IF THE PROJECTIONS STAY ON COURSE. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL...BUT SHOULD NOT GO BELOW 6,000 FEET WHICH MEANS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL STAY ABOVE ANY MAJOR MOUNTAIN ROADS. THERE SHOULD BE LESS VARIABILITY IN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM...MEANING COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE BUT FOOTHILL/MOUNTAIN AREA LOOK SIMILAR. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON MONDAY...BUT THE TREND SHOULD BE DRIER AND CLEARER. MORE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS EARLIER AS LATE TUESDAY. && AVIATION......06/1600Z. KLAX AT 1500Z...RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW CLOUD BASES AROUND 700 FEET WITH THE TOP OF THE INVERSION NEAR 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF ABOUT 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OR SCATTERED OUT FROM THE COASTAL TAF LOCATIONS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT COASTAL TAF SITES KSBA AND SOUTH STARTING SOMETIME BETWEEN 3Z AND 9Z...KBUR AND KVNY BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z. FOR KBUR AND KVNY...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VFR CONDS PERSIST BEYOND 12Z. KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS THROUGH 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AFTER 12Z. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AFTER 05Z. && MARINE......06/900 AM. LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BELOW THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE SAN PEDRO AND SANTA MONICA BASINS...AND OUT TO CATALINA ISLAND. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM PIERDAS BLANCAS TO POINT CONCEPTION SOMETIME DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 44>46-53-54. (SEE LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE AVIATION...KJ MARINE...KJ SYNOPSIS...SETO WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
901 AM PDT WED APR 6 2016 ISSUED BY NWS SAN DIEGO FOR NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-FRI) TODAYS WEATHER FEATURES ARE A 1032 MB SFC HIGH MOVING INTO NEVADA AND A 569DM UPPER LOW 900 MILES SW OF L.A. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREATE OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO FURTHER WARM A 500 MB 584 DM ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FLIES IN THE TEMPERATURE OINTMENT HOWEVER. THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN PLACE YET AND THIS WILL MAKE THE MORNING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKER THAN THEY COULD HAVE BEEN. ALSO THERE IS A GRIP OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE UPPER LOW AND THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL ATTENUATE THE SUNSHINE. SO MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WARM BUT NOT EVEN NEAR TO RECORDS. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL WINDS GUSTS IN THE MTNS AND THE VLYS THAT WILL EXCEED ADVISORY BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AND THERE IS NO NEED FOR ANY WIND ADVISORIES. THE OFFSHORE QUICKLY SWITCHES TO ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW ALSO MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ITS LIFT ALONG WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE A LARGE BATCH OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS THAT WILL COVER THE COASTS AND ALMOST ALL OF THE VLYS. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE SHARPLY ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHERN CA WEATHER WILL MORE RESEMBLE PORTLAND`S. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO A BROAD NEG TILTED TROF AND WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA. HGTS WILL FALL TO 568 DM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS NO FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THESE SHOWERS SO THEY WILL BE MORE OF THE OFF AND ON HIT AND MISS VARIETY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY UNDER A QUARTER INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 7500 FEET. MAX TEMPS WILL PLUNGE 15 DEGREES OR SO AND MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. A SECOND SYSTEM (THE PARENT SYSTEM FROM THURSDAYS TROF) WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY. IT WILL SWING A VORT LOBE OVER THE AREA AND THE SHOWERS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN ON THURSDAY. THIS VORT LOBE HAS JUST ENOUGH OOMPH TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS OVER L.A. COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE VARIABLE BUT SOME AREAS MAY SEE A THIRD OF AN INCH ESP OVER L.A. COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7500 FEET. .LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE) HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A SECOND SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FIRST...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEING FROM THE NORTH...THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE COLD AIR ALOFT THAN THE FIRST...LEADING TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SHOWER INTENSITIES. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST...A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE WARRANTED IF THE PROJECTIONS STAY ON COURSE. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL...BUT SHOULD NOT GO BELOW 6,000 FEET WHICH MEANS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL STAY ABOVE ANY MAJOR MOUNTAIN ROADS. THERE SHOULD BE LESS VARIABILITY IN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM...MEANING COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE BUT FOOTHILL/MOUNTAIN AREA LOOK SIMILAR. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON MONDAY...BUT THE TREND SHOULD BE DRIER AND CLEARER. MORE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS EARLIER AS LATE TUESDAY. && .AVIATION......06/1600Z. KLAX AT 1500Z...RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW CLOUD BASES AROUND 700 FEET WITH THE TOP OF THE INVERSION NEAR 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF ABOUT 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OR SCATTERED OUT FROM THE COASTAL TAF LOCATIONS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT COASTAL TAF SITES KSBA AND SOUTH STARTING SOMETIME BETWEEN 3Z AND 9Z...KBUR AND KVNY BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z. FOR KBUR AND KVNY...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VFR CONDS PERSIST BEYOND 12Z. KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS THROUGH 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AFTER 12Z. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AFTER 05Z. && .MARINE......06/900 AM. LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BELOW THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE SAN PEDRO AND SANTA MONICA BASINS...AND OUT TO CATALINA ISLAND. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM PIERDAS BLANCAS TO POINT CONCEPTION SOMETIME DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...RORKE AVIATION...RAT/MUNROE MARINE...RAT/MUNROE SYNOPSIS...SUKUP weather.gov/losangeles
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1216 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016 SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH WIND GUSTS ALREADY NEAR 35 MPH IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION. SPECIFICALLY...FLEMING-MASON AIRPORT GUSTED TO 30 KNOTS IN THE PAST HOUR. THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW HAS LED TO SOME VERY DRY AIR MUCH OF EASTENR KENTUCKY WITH RH`S RUNNING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT AREAWIDE. THE LOWEST AS EXPECTED IS IN THE EAST. WINDS ARE CRANKING UP AND WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG WARNING IN SEVERAL AREAS IN THE EAST...BUT WILL HOLD THE LINE FOR NOW WITHOUT A HEADLINE. MAY NEED TO CHANGE COURSE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GET WORSE. OTHERWISE...SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH SHOWERS STILL WELL DOWN TO OUR SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER 19 OR 20Z. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES IN WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER 00Z. STILL A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME THUNDER IN SOUTHWEST AREAS...AND PERHAPS A FEW CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 40 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AS ACTIVITY DEVLEOPS UPSTREAM. LOTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY...SO MORE UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. ONCE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES OUT...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SUBSTANTIALLY AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. SOME OF THE RECENT MAV MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR WINDS TODAY...SO THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW HIGH WINDS MIGHT GUST. TRENDS FOR THIS WILL BE MONITORED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016 EARLY THIS MORNING...A RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE ANOTHER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH IN BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST...A CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY WITH A SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN AND COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY DAWN WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING FURTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE TROUGH WITH THE PATTERN AMPLIFYING OVERALL TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING OCCLUDED AS IT WORKS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH SHOWER CHANCES... MORE WIND THAN AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR THAT MATTER. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL START TO INVADE THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE THREE FORECAST CONCERNS INITIALLY TODAY...THE FIRST IS THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA WHICH IN SOME CASES WILL HAVE BEEN BELOW FREEZING FOR 8 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. THE SECOND IS THE GRADIENT AND HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT ALREADY APPARENT ON REGION VAD WIND PROFILES AND IN THE GUSTINESS AT HIGH ELEVATION MESONET SITES. AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES OUT...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER DRAMATICALLY BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTINESS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE FAR WEST ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AS SHOWERS ARRIVE. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY...ALTHOUGH RH OF 25 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 MPH OR MORE MAY NOT QUITE COINCIDE TODAY THOUGH THIS IS POSSIBLE FOR RIDGES NEAR THE VA BORDER. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE MENTIONED HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO AND AN SPS FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AREA GIVEN RH ON THE DRY SIDE...RECENT RATHER DRY WEATHER AND DRY FUELS IN PLACE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. SPC HAS PARTS OF THE REGION IN A GENERAL THUNDER AND REGIONAL CONSENSUS WAS FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. INITIAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE SHOULD LIMIT QPF IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALSO CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY OR GULF COAST STATES COULD ALSO LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. QPF FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS BEEN UNDERCUT FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FROM THE MODEL BLEND...AND AREA NEAR THE TN BORDER APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING AS MUCH AS HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MEASURE AND CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN USED. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE AREA SHOULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EVEN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS MIGHT IN FACT EXPERIENCE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016 AT UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE PATTERN THEN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AND TROUGHINESS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK CLIPPER DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN. THE UPPER TROF WILL GET REINFORCED/DEEPEN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY PLUNGES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN AS THE DEEPENING OCCURS...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD HELP ENHANCE SNOW BANDS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VA BORDER COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM GROUND. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT AFTER THAT...THE TROF WILL FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP SCOUR OUT CLOUDS BUT WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET BY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE READINGS IN THE LOW 20S ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR AREA...WHILE AN UPPER TROF PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXITING THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS AND A FEW MID CLOUDS PASSING BY AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THIS TIME AS WELL...BUT ARE STRONGER ALOFT PER VWP AND RIDGETOP MESONET OBSERVATIONS. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 14Z...WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD MIX OUT. HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN MIXING TO THE SURFACE AT THAT POINT...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT SME...LOZ AND SYM. MID AND LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO EAST KENTUCKY AROUND OR AFTER 18Z WITH SOME SHRA POSSIBLE BY 00Z. DETERIORATION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT HELD OFF ON ANY VCTS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 939 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 939 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Morning meso analysis and short term forecast elements shows the following. Little lightning to our west, as best elevated instability is currently ahead of the ongoing convection over our area. Through the day, some surface/mixed layer CAPE develops across the area as low level lapse rates steepen from midday on into the afternoon. Also, we have a steady lowering of freezing levels through the day. Best low trop winds will reside across central and east sections of the area through the afternoon. As increasing convective elements move through this area, mainly east of I-55, some of the activity (if it becomes robust enough), could bring strong winds to the surface as h10/h8 lapse rates reach 8-9 c/km. Depth and width of positive area suggests even though freezing levels lower, hail production should be limited. However, some mainly small hail is possible. Progression should be from SEMO around 17/18z, to SW IN, the KY Pennyrile 19-22z. Marginal risk is reasonable given the wind gust potential, should convection be able to produce. && .UPDATE... Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Primary near term concerns include the potential for showers and thunderstorms, in addition to gusty winds today. A shortwave trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the Central Plains early this morning will track east into the Mississippi River Valley today. At the surface, low pressure over the Upper Midwest early this morning will track east into the Great Lakes region by the end of the day. This low will drag a cold front across the immediate forecast area this afternoon and early this evening. Along and just ahead of the front, a relatively narrow band of showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast to move across the region during the late morning and afternoon. The precipitation should be rather short-lived--only lasting a couple hours at any one location. As a result, rainfall amounts should only range from one quarter to one half inch. It will also be quite windy today, with 15 to 25 mph sustained southwest winds and occasional gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph. While this falls short of Wind Advisory criteria, we will address the wind in a Special Weather Statement. The front and its associated precipitation should largely be east of the area within a few hours after sunset, with a return to dry conditions overnight and early Thursday morning. However, disturbances in the cyclonic flow around an upper level low over southeastern Canada will keep a good deal of clouds and the chance for showers in the forecast for at least a part of the area Thursday and Friday. The potential on Thursday encompasses all but our far western counties in the Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri. The chance on Friday is primarily across southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana, and the Kentucky Pennyrile region. The Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri may also experience an elevated fire danger Thursday and Friday afternoons. While relative humidity and wind are not expected to exceed criteria either day, conditions will be close enough for at least a close watch both afternoons. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Below average confidence in the long term mainly due to lack model agreement on timing, track, and coverage of multiple systems affecting the area. High pressure at the surface and northwest flow aloft should keep the region dry and cool through Saturday night. Beyond that there is little to no agreement between long term models so forecast is output from the Superblend for the most part with a few modifications. Therefore, rather than go through each 12 hour period explaining the differences between models, will just give a brief synopsis of systems/precipitation chances affecting the area through the rest of the period. Precipitation can be expected over all or part of the area from Sunday through the end of the period as a couple of slow moving systems move across the area. At this time it look like the highest probability for precipitation area wide will be Monday and Monday night. Instability will be hard to come by for the most part in the long term, but enough to mention small chances for thunder Sunday night, Monday, and Monday night. Temperatures will be taking somewhat of a roller coaster ride through the extended. They start off the period below normal, warm to at or above normal through the middle of the period, then cool back to near normal by the very end. In fact, over most of the area temperatures are expected to drop to at or below freezing both Friday and Saturday nights. && .AVIATION... Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. South to southwest winds will increase rapidly through mid morning and remain strong and gusty through much of the day with peak gusts up to 35 knots. Ceilings will gradually decrease through the morning. A brief period of MVFR conditions is possible as the main band of showers moves through during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible. Winds will shift to the west and decrease tonight as dry conditions return behind the cold front. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ MESOSCALE...CN SHORT TERM...RJP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...RJP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 954 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016 ...Forecast Update... Updated at 954 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Signs still point to strong wind gusts this afternoon, likely into the 40-45 mph range. Clouds may be a limiting factor, though satellite is showing breaks in the overcast both here and upstream, at least for now. After discussion with surrounding offices, have hoisted a Wind Advisory for the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. Have decreased PoPs some this morning, but widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening. Will have to be on the lookout for a line of gusty showers forced just ahead of the cold fropa, especially during the 6pm-10pm EDT time period this evening. .SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Seeing a southeasterly wind at the obs sites this hour. These winds are in response to a low pressure system moving out of the Central Plains. We should see winds turn more southerly this afternoon with gusty conditions occurring. Cloud cover this time should keep us from mixing as well as we did with the wind event this past Saturday. Would not be surprised to see a few gusts to 40 mph, but do not think they will be widespread enough for an advisory, at this point. Will continue to highlight with a special weather statement. Those winds will bring in additional moisture, but as mentioned by previous forecaster, precipitable waters stay at an inch or less. Still the forcing along the front should be enough to squeeze out rains for most areas by the end of the day. The ARW and NMM WRF both generate some light showers along the I-65 corridor by early afternoon, whereas the LMK WRF keeps us dry. We are starting very dry, with dewpoints at SDF this hour in the lower 20s. Would not be surprised to see sprinkles at first while the column moistens up. Temperatures will warm quickly at first this morning with those southerly winds, but then with precip commencing we should halt that warming and steady out in the lower 60s the rest of the afternoon. Showers should end from west to east as the upper trough swings through the region tonight. However, models continue to show another impulse moving in from the northwest early Thursday, perhaps bringing a continued chance for light rain showers by daybreak. Then as the day progresses, our region moves into the left front quadrant of an upper jet, providing enhancement to further keep rain chances in the rest of the day. The cloud cover should keep temperatures limited to the 50s for highs. .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)... Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Moisture feed off of the Great Lakes will continue to provide precip chances Thursday night to Friday night. We still have some question about whether some wet snow will mix in with this precip. Based on the temperature forecast have to keep in at least a small chance for non-accumulating snows during the night and early morning periods. Saturday continues to look quite cold for early April. Morning lows should start off around 30. Highs, under good sunshine but stiff northwest winds, only will get into the 40s. Sunday should be the colder of the two mornings this weekend. High pressure looks to be centered over the region Saturday night, setting the stage for ideal radiational cooling. Consequently, a hard freeze is looking more likely Sunday morning. After that another brief warmup ensues, with highs Sunday under southeasterly winds should get up to the mid 50s-low 60s range. For the next work week, we are still looking at a front coming into the area late Monday, bringing another good shot at rain and thunder. Euro continues to be faster with this passage than the GFS represents. Trimmed the blended pop west of I-65 for the daytime period Tuesday. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 638 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Winds will continue to be the main issue for the TAFs today as they will become quite gusty ahead of a cold front moving through. the immediate concern is low level wind shear as VAD wind profiles from the radar show 50-55 knots at 2000 feet. AMDAR soundings are just a bit weaker than this. Will continue to mention low level wind shear through 13-14Z. After this time mixing should be enough that surface winds will pick up and become gusty. Gusty southerly winds will then continue through the day with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots and gusts up to 35 knots. Showers will develop and move into the area this afternoon, with a decent line of rain accompanying the cold front as it moves through. For now will continue to mention SHRA and leave out thunder as confidence is lower in thunder chances at any of the terminals. The main rain will move out this evening with some light showers possible late tonight behind the front. Winds will shift to westerly behind the front and continue to be a bit gusty overnight. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ Update.........13 Short Term.....RJS Long Term......RJS Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
758 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. ONCE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES OUT...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SUBSTANTIALLY AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. SOME OF THE RECENT MAV MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR WINDS TODAY...SO THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW HIGH WINDS MIGHT GUST. TRENDS FOR THIS WILL BE MONITORED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016 EARLY THIS MORNING...A RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE ANOTHER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH IN BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST...A CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY WITH A SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN AND COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY DAWN WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING FURTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE TROUGH WITH THE PATTERN AMPLIFYING OVERALL TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING OCCLUDED AS IT WORKS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH SHOWER CHANCES... MORE WIND THAN AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR THAT MATTER. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL START TO INVADE THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE THREE FORECAST CONCERNS INITIALLY TODAY...THE FIRST IS THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA WHICH IN SOME CASES WILL HAVE BEEN BELOW FREEZING FOR 8 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. THE SECOND IS THE GRADIENT AND HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT ALREADY APPARENT ON REGION VAD WIND PROFILES AND IN THE GUSTINESS AT HIGH ELEVATION MESONET SITES. AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES OUT...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER DRAMATICALLY BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTINESS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE FAR WEST ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AS SHOWERS ARRIVE. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY...ALTHOUGH RH OF 25 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 MPH OR MORE MAY NOT QUITE COINCIDE TODAY THOUGH THIS IS POSSIBLE FOR RIDGES NEAR THE VA BORDER. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE MENTIONED HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO AND AN SPS FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AREA GIVEN RH ON THE DRY SIDE...RECENT RATHER DRY WEATHER AND DRY FUELS IN PLACE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. SPC HAS PARTS OF THE REGION IN A GENERAL THUNDER AND REGIONAL CONSENSUS WAS FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. INITIAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE SHOULD LIMIT QPF IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALSO CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY OR GULF COAST STATES COULD ALSO LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. QPF FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS BEEN UNDERCUT FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FROM THE MODEL BLEND...AND AREA NEAR THE TN BORDER APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING AS MUCH AS HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MEASURE AND CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN USED. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE AREA SHOULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EVEN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS MIGHT IN FACT EXPERIENCE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016 AT UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE PATTERN THEN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AND TROUGHINESS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK CLIPPER DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN. THE UPPER TROF WILL GET REINFORCED/DEEPEN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY PLUNGES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN AS THE DEEPENING OCCURS...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD HELP ENHANCE SNOW BANDS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VA BORDER COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM GROUND. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT AFTER THAT...THE TROF WILL FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP SCOUR OUT CLOUDS BUT WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET BY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE READINGS IN THE LOW 20S ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR AREA...WHILE AN UPPER TROF PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXITING THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS AND A FEW MID CLOUDS PASSING BY AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THIS TIME AS WELL...BUT ARE STRONGER ALOFT PER VWP AND RIDGETOP MESONET OBSERVATIONS. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 14Z...WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD MIX OUT. HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN MIXING TO THE SURFACE AT THAT POINT...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT SME...LOZ AND SYM. MID AND LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO EAST KENTUCKY AROUND OR AFTER 18Z WITH SOME SHRA POSSIBLE BY 00Z. DETERIORATION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT HELD OFF ON ANY VCTS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ052-060-080- 085>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 647 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Primary near term concerns include the potential for showers and thunderstorms, in addition to gusty winds today. A shortwave trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the Central Plains early this morning will track east into the Mississippi River Valley today. At the surface, low pressure over the Upper Midwest early this morning will track east into the Great Lakes region by the end of the day. This low will drag a cold front across the immediate forecast area this afternoon and early this evening. Along and just ahead of the front, a relatively narrow band of showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast to move across the region during the late morning and afternoon. The precipitation should be rather short-lived--only lasting a couple hours at any one location. As a result, rainfall amounts should only range from one quarter to one half inch. It will also be quite windy today, with 15 to 25 mph sustained southwest winds and occasional gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph. While this falls short of Wind Advisory criteria, we will address the wind in a Special Weather Statement. The front and its associated precipitation should largely be east of the area within a few hours after sunset, with a return to dry conditions overnight and early Thursday morning. However, disturbances in the cyclonic flow around an upper level low over southeastern Canada will keep a good deal of clouds and the chance for showers in the forecast for at least a part of the area Thursday and Friday. The potential on Thursday encompasses all but our far western counties in the Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri. The chance on Friday is primarily across southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana, and the Kentucky Pennyrile region. The Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri may also experience an elevated fire danger Thursday and Friday afternoons. While relative humidity and wind are not expected to exceed criteria either day, conditions will be close enough for at least a close watch both afternoons. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Below average confidence in the long term mainly due to lack model agreement on timing, track, and coverage of multiple systems affecting the area. High pressure at the surface and northwest flow aloft should keep the region dry and cool through Saturday night. Beyond that there is little to no agreement between long term models so forecast is output from the Superblend for the most part with a few modifications. Therefore, rather than go through each 12 hour period explaining the differences between models, will just give a brief synopsis of systems/precipitation chances affecting the area through the rest of the period. Precipitation can be expected over all or part of the area from Sunday through the end of the period as a couple of slow moving systems move across the area. At this time it look like the highest probability for precipitation area wide will be Monday and Monday night. Instability will be hard to come by for the most part in the long term, but enough to mention small chances for thunder Sunday night, Monday, and Monday night. Temperatures will be taking somewhat of a roller coaster ride through the extended. They start off the period below normal, warm to at or above normal through the middle of the period, then cool back to near normal by the very end. In fact, over most of the area temperatures are expected to drop to at or below freezing both Friday and Saturday nights. && .AVIATION... Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. South to southwest winds will increase rapidly through mid morning and remain strong and gusty through much of the day with peak gusts up to 35 knots. Ceilings will gradually decrease through the morning. A brief period of MVFR conditions is possible as the main band of showers moves through during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible. Winds will shift to the west and decrease tonight as dry conditions return behind the cold front. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...RJP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 647 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Primary near term concerns include the potential for showers and thunderstorms, in addition to gusty winds today. A shortwave trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the Central Plains early this morning will track east into the Mississippi River Valley today. At the surface, low pressure over the Upper Midwest early this morning will track east into the Great Lakes region by the end of the day. This low will drag a cold front across the immediate forecast area this afternoon and early this evening. Along and just ahead of the front, a relatively narrow band of showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast to move across the region during the late morning and afternoon. The precipitation should be rather short-lived--only lasting a couple hours at any one location. As a result, rainfall amounts should only range from one quarter to one half inch. It will also be quite windy today, with 15 to 25 mph sustained southwest winds and occasional gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph. While this falls short of Wind Advisory criteria, we will address the wind in a Special Weather Statement. The front and its associated precipitation should largely be east of the area within a few hours after sunset, with a return to dry conditions overnight and early Thursday morning. However, disturbances in the cyclonic flow around an upper level low over southeastern Canada will keep a good deal of clouds and the chance for showers in the forecast for at least a part of the area Thursday and Friday. The potential on Thursday encompasses all but our far western counties in the Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri. The chance on Friday is primarily across southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana, and the Kentucky Pennyrile region. The Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri may also experience an elevated fire danger Thursday and Friday afternoons. While relative humidity and wind are not expected to exceed criteria either day, conditions will be close enough for at least a close watch both afternoons. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Below average confidence in the long term mainly due to lack model agreement on timing, track, and coverage of multiple systems affecting the area. High pressure at the surface and northwest flow aloft should keep the region dry and cool through Saturday night. Beyond that there is little to no agreement between long term models so forecast is output from the Superblend for the most part with a few modifications. Therefore, rather than go through each 12 hour period explaining the differences between models, will just give a brief synopsis of systems/precipitation chances affecting the area through the rest of the period. Precipitation can be expected over all or part of the area from Sunday through the end of the period as a couple of slow moving systems move across the area. At this time it look like the highest probability for precipitation area wide will be Monday and Monday night. Instability will be hard to come by for the most part in the long term, but enough to mention small chances for thunder Sunday night, Monday, and Monday night. Temperatures will be taking somewhat of a roller coaster ride through the extended. They start off the period below normal, warm to at or above normal through the middle of the period, then cool back to near normal by the very end. In fact, over most of the area temperatures are expected to drop to at or below freezing both Friday and Saturday nights. && .AVIATION... Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. South to southwest winds will increase rapidly through mid morning and remain strong and gusty through much of the day with peak gusts up to 35 knots. Ceilings will gradually decrease through the morning. A brief period of MVFR conditions is possible as the main band of showers moves through during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible. Winds will shift to the west and decrease tonight as dry conditions return behind the cold front. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...RJP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 639 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Seeing a southeasterly wind at the obs sites this hour. These winds are in response to a low pressure system moving out of the Central Plains. We should see winds turn more southerly this afternoon with gusty conditions occurring. Cloud cover this time should keep us from mixing as well as we did with the wind event this past Saturday. Would not be surprised to see a few gusts to 40 mph, but do not think they will be widespread enough for an advisory, at this point. Will continue to highlight with a special weather statement. Those winds will bring in additional moisture, but as mentioned by previous forecaster, precipitable waters stay at an inch or less. Still the forcing along the front should be enough to squeeze out rains for most areas by the end of the day. The ARW and NMM WRF both generate some light showers along the I-65 corridor by early afternoon, whereas the LMK WRF keeps us dry. We are starting very dry, with dewpoints at SDF this hour in the lower 20s. Would not be surprised to see sprinkles at first while the column moistens up. Temperatures will warm quickly at first this morning with those southerly winds, but then with precip commencing we should halt that warming and steady out in the lower 60s the rest of the afternoon. Showers should end from west to east as the upper trough swings through the region tonight. However, models continue to show another impulse moving in from the northwest early Thursday, perhaps bringing a continued chance for light rain showers by daybreak. Then as the day progresses, our region moves into the left front quadrant of an upper jet, providing enhancement to further keep rain chances in the rest of the day. The cloud cover should keep temperatures limited to the 50s for highs. .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)... Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Moisture feed off of the Great Lakes will continue to provide precip chances Thursday night to Friday night. We still have some question about whether some wet snow will mix in with this precip. Based on the temperature forecast have to keep in at least a small chance for non-accumulating snows during the night and early morning periods. Saturday continues to look quite cold for early April. Morning lows should start off around 30. Highs, under good sunshine but stiff northwest winds, only will get into the 40s. Sunday should be the colder of the two mornings this weekend. High pressure looks to be centered over the region Saturday night, setting the stage for ideal radiational cooling. Consequently, a hard freeze is looking more likely Sunday morning. After that another brief warmup ensues, with highs Sunday under southeasterly winds should get up to the mid 50s-low 60s range. For the next work week, we are still looking at a front coming into the area late Monday, bringing another good shot at rain and thunder. Euro continues to be faster with this passage than the GFS represents. Trimmed the blended pop west of I-65 for the daytime period Tuesday. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 638 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Winds will continue to be the main issue for the TAFs today as they will become quite gusty ahead of a cold front moving through. the immediate concern is low level wind shear as VAD wind profiles from the radar show 50-55 knots at 2000 feet. AMDAR soundings are just a bit weaker than this. Will continue to mention low level wind shear through 13-14Z. After this time mixing should be enough that surface winds will pick up and become gusty. Gusty southerly winds will then continue through the day with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots and gusts up to 35 knots. Showers will develop and move into the area this afternoon, with a decent line of rain accompanying the cold front as it moves through. For now will continue to mention SHRA and leave out thunder as confidence is lower in thunder chances at any of the terminals. The main rain will move out this evening with some light showers possible late tonight behind the front. Winds will shift to westerly behind the front and continue to be a bit gusty overnight. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........RJS Long Term.........RJS Aviation..........EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
203 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE MIGRATING TOWARD CHICAGO. MAY VERY WELL REMOVE THUNDER MENTION SHORTLY DESPITE AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AT LEAST MEAGER LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S HOWEVER DO NOT SUGGEST A GREAT PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED/DEEP CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCALES SEEING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 ...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS... A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL REMAIN OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z BUT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BECAUSE OF THESE SHOWERS...CLOUDS HAVE HUNG AROUND IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK BY DAWN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THIS COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DIVE INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW 20S AND EVEN POSSIBLY THE TEENS BY SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UNUSUALLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING A HARD FREEZE. THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY...AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL RESULT IN BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CARRYING IN MILDER AIR FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THEY WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY ADVECT MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION AS THE FRONT AND ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPROACH. MODELS STILL SUGGEST THE GREATEST POP FOR MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW LONG THE RAIN WILL LINGER. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED AND HAS A STRONGER ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WITH RAIN PERSISTING ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ONLY HAS LIGHT PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHEAST. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION RESULTS IN LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY... AND CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH EVENTUALLY TAKES CONTROL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT PLAYER IS AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROLL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS IT WEAKENING AND PHASING WITH AN IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT RESULT IN MUCH MOISTURE RETURN FOR OUR AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTING OUT FIRST...LEAVING THE SOUTHERN LOW TO LINGER AND PULL MOISTURE/PRECIP BACK NORTH INTO KY. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION RESULTS IN LOW POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY THURSDAY. THE END BIG PICTURE RESULT IS A FAIRLY CONFIDENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GREATLY REDUCED CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 COLD FRONT MIGRATING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING CHICAGO. BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PLAGUE ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. MAY EVEN SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES WHERE MOISTURE CAN LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY NEAR JKL/SJS. DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIFTING CEILINGS BACK TO VFR CRITERIA. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20-25 KNOTS. SHOULD SEE THESE DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS VEERING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN AGAIN PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN APPRECIABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GUSEMAN