Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/03/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF EASTERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...A DISTINCT WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AN UNSETTLED WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY FINALLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LATEST VORT LOBE OFF THE PREVIOUSLY WESTERN LONG-LIVED UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN AZ AND INTO SONORA THIS AFTERNOON. SKY COVERAGE IS SPLIT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLEAR SKIES FROM WESTERN AZ INTO SOUTHEAST CA AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND POINTS EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING CLOSER TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STILL BELOW-NORMAL ML TEMPERATURES HAVE SUPPORTED ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CU AND INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE RIM AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AZ HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CU FIELDS DEVELOPING BACK DOWN OVER NEIGHBORING DESERT LOCALES. THE FEW AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INTO KPHX TODAY WITH BOTH A TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRACE POINT TO CONTINUED DRY SUB- CLOUD LAYER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES LINGERING BETWEEN 700-500MB. SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGAN EARLIER IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE EVENING UNTIL SUNSET. WITH SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND FURTHER REMOVAL OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE AREA...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL READINGS WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AROUND THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT IS ABRUPTLY DISPLACED BY HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING FOLDING INTO THE WRN CONUS. MODEL OUTPUT REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING H5 HEIGHTS APPROACHING 580DM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASING DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH AXIS. CORRESPONDINGLY...SPREAD AMONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS ALSO VERY LOW (NO MORE THAN AROUND 5F TOTAL WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS) YIELDING A MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF NEARLY +10F DAILY ANOMALIES. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THE GENERAL HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS VERY GOOD FEATURING LARGER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL WAVE LIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THIS CONSISTENCY...THERE REMAINS LARGER DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO DETAILS ON TIMING AND POSITIONING OF INTEGRATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FOCUSED ASCENT STRUCTURE. WITH A LARGER CONTINGENCY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A MORE POSITIVE SIGNAL FOR STRONGER MOIST ASCENT THROUGHOUT ARIZONA...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DURING THE END OF NEXT WEEK TOWARDS A CLOUDIER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER OUTCOME (I.E. POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY). && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... DRIER AIR THAT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SKIES OUT OVER THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET...AND KEEP THE SE CA AREA TERMINALS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC PRESSURE TO KEEP WINDS MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KBLH...WHICH COULD SEE NORTHERLY WINDS AS STRONG AS 10 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS EACH DAY. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MO AVIATION...PERCHA FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
509 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WV LOOPS THIS MORNING SHOWS TWO STRONG S/W WEST OF THE REGION. ONE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM WEST TX. THIS IS PRODUCING A MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS FRONT ALIGNS ALONG THE UPPER FLOW. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOW MAINLY OVER THE ERN MIDLANDS/COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE TWO PERIODS OF STRONG SHEAR. ONE THIS MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT H8 JET MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE SECOND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS H8 JET ONCE AGAIN AROUND 50 KTS. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ONE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A SECOND LINE CLOSER TO THE FRONT ACROSS AL/GA. BEST INSTABILITY THIS MORNING IS ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND MODELS INDICATE THAT THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE. THIS AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MANY AREAS WELL ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MANY AREAS COULD SEE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES FOR THE EVENT. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SMALLER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JET MAX OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA. BY SATURDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL DECREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT CLOSE TO/JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW/W ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. COULD SEE A CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY FORECASTING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CLOSE TO/JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL SC WEST ACROSS CENTRAL GA...MOVING EAST...AS UPPER ENERGY AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONCENTRATE DETAIL ON THE NEAR TERM. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LLWS THROUGH EARLY MORNING DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...CONFIRMED BBY LATEST ACARS SOUNDING AT CAE...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE SURFACE TODAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...77 NEAR TERM...77 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
320 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... 153 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500 FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST. MTF && .LONG TERM... 220 PM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS. A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW. FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. KJB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE: - SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL. - WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO RE-INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD AXIS OF GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 20Z THAT SHIFTS OVER THE CHICAGO AREA WITHIN 21Z-01Z. IT IS WITHIN THIS AREA THAT THERE PROBABLY WILL BE ISOLATED DEEPER SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDER. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MID MORNING. AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING THE GUSTS ARE FAVORED TO REACH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY EXCEED 40 KT. MTF && .MARINE... 320 PM CDT A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EACH SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTHERLY OVER THE LAKE. THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A PARTICULARLY STOUT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY. A PERIOD OF HIGH END NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AS A FEW GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER...A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES THE LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH-NORTHEASTER 25 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SET UP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023- ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
232 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... 153 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500 FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST. MTF && .LONG TERM... 220 PM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS. A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW. FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. KJB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE: - SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL. - WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO RE-INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD AXIS OF GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 20Z THAT SHIFTS OVER THE CHICAGO AREA WITHIN 21Z-01Z. IT IS WITHIN THIS AREA THAT THERE PROBABLY WILL BE ISOLATED DEEPER SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDER. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MID MORNING. AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING THE GUSTS ARE FAVORED TO REACH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY EXCEED 40 KT. MTF && .MARINE... 328 AM CDT MAIN MARINE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THEN EXPANDING NORTH AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE FIRST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDING NORTH TO COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALES TO 45 KT FOR THE SOUTH HALF LOOK FAVORABLE...AND TO 40 KT FOR THE NORTH HALF. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS RELAXING AND BECOMING WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023- ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
231 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... 153 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500 FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST. MTF && .LONG TERM... 220 PM CDT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS. A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW. FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. KJB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE: - SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL. - WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO RE-INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD AXIS OF GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 20Z THAT SHIFTS OVER THE CHICAGO AREA WITHIN 21Z-01Z. IT IS WITHIN THIS AREA THAT THERE PROBABLY WILL BE ISOLATED DEEPER SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDER. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MID MORNING. AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING THE GUSTS ARE FAVORED TO REACH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY EXCEED 40 KT. MTF && .MARINE... 328 AM CDT MAIN MARINE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THEN EXPANDING NORTH AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE FIRST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDING NORTH TO COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALES TO 45 KT FOR THE SOUTH HALF LOOK FAVORABLE...AND TO 40 KT FOR THE NORTH HALF. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS RELAXING AND BECOMING WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023- ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
220 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... 153 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500 FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST. MTF && .LONG TERM... 220 PM CDT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS. A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR EVENING CHANGING TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLY OVER NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW. FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. KJB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE: - SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL. - WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO RE-INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD AXIS OF GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 20Z THAT SHIFTS OVER THE CHICAGO AREA WITHIN 21Z-01Z. IT IS WITHIN THIS AREA THAT THERE PROBABLY WILL BE ISOLATED DEEPER SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDER. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MID MORNING. AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING THE GUSTS ARE FAVORED TO REACH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY EXCEED 40 KT. MTF && .MARINE... 328 AM CDT MAIN MARINE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THEN EXPANDING NORTH AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE FIRST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDING NORTH TO COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALES TO 45 KT FOR THE SOUTH HALF LOOK FAVORABLE...AND TO 40 KT FOR THE NORTH HALF. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS RELAXING AND BECOMING WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023- ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
155 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... 153 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500 FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST. MTF && .LONG TERM... 335 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT RIDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...EXPECT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE ON SUNDAY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING FROM THE DAKOTAS EARLY ON SUNDAY TO NEAR DBQ SUNDAY EVENING WILL BRING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TO THE REGION WITH WINDS GUSTING AT LEAST TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER WINDS. STRONG H85 WINDS TO AROUND 60 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL DRIVE H85 TEMPS TO 7-10C BY SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE WARM AIR BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THIS CAUSES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM ADVERTISING TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER IT PANS OUT...THE WARM-UP WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED WITH AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 0.75 INCHES DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MODELS DO TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF SUNDAY NIGHT. THINKING MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING QPF A BIT SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET ALBEIT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ON MONDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY. OUR ROLLER COASTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS YET ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WHILE AT THIS DISTANCE THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. BMD && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE: - SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL. - WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO RE-INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD AXIS OF GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 20Z THAT SHIFTS OVER THE CHICAGO AREA WITHIN 21Z-01Z. IT IS WITHIN THIS AREA THAT THERE PROBABLY WILL BE ISOLATED DEEPER SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDER. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MID MORNING. AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING THE GUSTS ARE FAVORED TO REACH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY EXCEED 40 KT. MTF && .MARINE... 328 AM CDT MAIN MARINE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THEN EXPANDING NORTH AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE FIRST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDING NORTH TO COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALES TO 45 KT FOR THE SOUTH HALF LOOK FAVORABLE...AND TO 40 KT FOR THE NORTH HALF. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS RELAXING AND BECOMING WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A FEW SNOW SQUALLS HAVE MADE AS FAR EAST AS DULLES ARPT BUT SOON WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER DUE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. A RECENT 0413Z ACARS SOUNDING FROM BWI SHOWED WINDS OF 42KT AT 1880 FT WITH A MAXIMA OF 71KT AT 4420 FT. WITH PRECIP HAVING ENDED AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING EXPECT GUSTS TO PEAK BETWEEN 40-45KT THROUGH ABOUT 09Z THEN WINDS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE DAY. BY 15Z...ONLY ABT 30KT WIND AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN. WILL LEAVE WIND WARNINGS AS IS UNTIL ABOUT 09Z AND BEGIN TO DOWNGRADE TO AFTER THAT. MAY ABLE TO CANCEL SOME OF THE ADVISORIES OVER THE SRN PART OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL AND BREEZY TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50F. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING SWRLY WIND ALBEIT LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...ANOTHER CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MON. THE SFC AND ACCOMPANYING S/W TROUGH WON`T BE ANYWHERE AS STRONG AS THE ONE THAT WENT THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TONIGHT. SPC HAS AREA UNDER A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT BUT STABILITY INDICES LOOK STABLE. WE`LL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME. CDFNT AND SHOWERS CLEAR THE AREA BY 00Z TUE. SUB- FREEZING TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED IN MANY AREAS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR TUE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FREEZE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR MON AND TUE NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BULK OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES...LIKELY IN FORM OF RAIN. FRONT CROSSES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. PATTERN VOLATILITY INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS LONG WAVE TROUGH GETS CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND COULD INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS AS FRONTAL STRUCTURES/BROAD LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES...WITH SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ANOTHER WINDY PERIOD COULD OCCUR. BY LATE FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH MODEL SPREAD TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE. WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY SATURDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WIND GUSTS 40-45 KT THROUGH ABT 09Z...DIMINISHING BELOW 40KT AFTER 12Z...BELOW 30KT BY 15Z AND BELOW 20KT BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE...STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET WARNINGS AS IS AND REASSESS IN A FEW HOURS. GALES POSSIBLE MONDAY OVER THE CHES BAY IN NRLY WIND BEHIND FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NW ON THURSDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS VERY DRY AIR MIXES DOWN IN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. MIN RH`S EXPECTED IN THE 15-25% PERCENT. MAY ISSUE AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING. && .TIDES...STRONG NW WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOW-OUT TIDES OF 1-2 FT BELOW ASTRONOMICAL NORMAL TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001. MD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ005-006-011-013- 014-016>018-501-503>508. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-004- 502. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>006-011- 503>508. VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ052>055-057-503- 506. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031- 040-501-504-505-507-508. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031- 036>040-050>053-501-502-505>508. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ036>039-050-051-056- 502. WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ501-503-505. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>053- 055-502-504-506. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>541-543. STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...ADS AVIATION...ADS/LFR MARINE...ADS/LFR FIRE WEATHER...LFR TIDES...ADS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
302 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE QUASI GUSTY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE H700 LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT CAN BE ATTAINED WHILE KEEPING WINDS AROUND THE 15 MPH RANGE. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE A BIT MORE GUSTY...CLOSE TO 20 MPH...AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS A BIT HIGHER AND MORE MIXING CAN BE ATTAINED. A FIRE WEATHER DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA AS...IN ADDITION TO WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 11 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION. THE WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH...CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG THE AXIS OF THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD...UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50. ALDRICH .LONG TERM... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE ON MONDAY AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH COMES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NWP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD TRACK MORE OR LESS ALONG THE 49TH PARALLEL AND BE TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL BACK THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TO A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION FOR TUESDAY. OVERALL...THIS APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE IMPACTING THAN WHAT WAS DEPICTED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. THIS...OF COURSE...IS NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL OBSERVATIONAL DATA AVAILABLE FROM ACARS DATA. AXIS SHOULD PASS BY 12Z WED WITH A RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT DRIER AS THE SOCAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST A BIT TOO DISTANT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN AFFECT. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATIONS THAT STORM CHANCE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. A FRONT CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WHAT IS DIFFERENT IN TONIGHT/S DATA IS HIGHER NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE....BULK OF TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO STAY WEST ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG MOIST ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME HINTS OF THE DRYLINE BECOMING ACTIVE. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 51/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
552 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016/ SHORT TERM... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE QUASI GUSTY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE H700 LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT CAN BE ATTAINED WHILE KEEPING WINDS AROUND THE 15 MPH RANGE. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE A BIT MORE GUSTY...CLOSE TO 20 MPH...AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS A BIT HIGHER AND MORE MIXING CAN BE ATTAINED. A FIRE WEATHER DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA AS...IN ADDITION TO WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 11 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION. THE WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH...CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG THE AXIS OF THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD...UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50. ALDRICH LONG TERM... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE ON MONDAY AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH COMES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NWP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD TRACK MORE OR LESS ALONG THE 49TH PARALLEL AND BE TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL BACK THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TO A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION FOR TUESDAY. OVERALL...THIS APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE IMPACTING THAN WHAT WAS DEPICTED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. THIS...OF COURSE...IS NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL OBSERVATIONAL DATA AVAILABLE FROM ACARS DATA. AXIS SHOULD PASS BY 12Z WED WITH A RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT DRIER AS THE SOCAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST A BIT TOO DISTANT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN AFFECT. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATIONS THAT STORM CHANCE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. A FRONT CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WHAT IS DIFFERENT IN TONIGHT/S DATA IS HIGHER NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE....BULK OF TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO STAY WEST ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG MOIST ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME HINTS OF THE DRYLINE BECOMING ACTIVE. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 51/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 .AVIATION... BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY THEN BECOME EASTERLY BY MIDDAY...BUT THEY SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AOB 11 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016/ SHORT TERM... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE QUASI GUSTY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE H700 LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT CAN BE ATTAINED WHILE KEEPING WINDS AROUND THE 15 MPH RANGE. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE A BIT MORE GUSTY...CLOSE TO 20 MPH...AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS A BIT HIGHER AND MORE MIXING CAN BE ATTAINED. A FIRE WEATHER DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA AS...IN ADDITION TO WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 11 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION. THE WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH...CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG THE AXIS OF THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD...UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50. ALDRICH LONG TERM... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE ON MONDAY AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH COMES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NWP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD TRACK MORE OR LESS ALONG THE 49TH PARALLEL AND BE TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL BACK THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TO A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION FOR TUESDAY. OVERALL...THIS APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE IMPACTING THAN WHAT WAS DEPICTED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. THIS...OF COURSE...IS NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL OBSERVATIONAL DATA AVAILABLE FROM ACARS DATA. AXIS SHOULD PASS BY 12Z WED WITH A RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT DRIER AS THE SOCAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST A BIT TOO DISTANT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN AFFECT. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATIONS THAT STORM CHANCE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. A FRONT CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WHAT IS DIFFERENT IN TONIGHT/S DATA IS HIGHER NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE....BULK OF TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO STAY WEST ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG MOIST ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME HINTS OF THE DRYLINE BECOMING ACTIVE. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 23/07/23