Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/19/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
841 AM PDT THU MAR 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE SOME COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...WHILE THE DESERTS HEAT UP. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN ALL AREAS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. COOLER MONDAY WITH STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN COULD CREATE CONTINUED COOLING...INCREASING CLOUDS...SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ABOUT 5 MILES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST AND OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A 5 DEGREE MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND 1000-1100 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING...MAKING WAY FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING ONSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH THE SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH GRADIENT INDICATING 4.7 MB OFFSHORE...WHILE IT WAS 7.9 MB OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THUS...WE SHOULD GET A GOOD SEA BREEZE TODAY AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE DESERTS HEAT UP. MODELS INDICATE THE FLOW TURNING COMPLETELY ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG MOVING INTO THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST/WESTERN VALLEYS...AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUING. ON MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...COOLING AND A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS THEN SHOW THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING MORE COOLING...INCREASING CLOUDS...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DRIER WITH THE TROUGH...AS IT SWINGS IT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND MOVES IT OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A PLUME OF 0.7 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER DIRECTED AT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PROGRESSION...AS IT KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS THE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WESTERLY 850 MB WINDS OF 25-35 KT ARE INDICATED...WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO CREATE WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH. DRY WEATHER LIKELY NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE OFFSHORE FLOW AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. && .AVIATION... 171530Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 600 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1100 FT MSL...AND FOG WITH LOCAL VIS BELOW 3SM REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BE PUSHED OFFSHORE BY 17Z. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BELOW 900 FT MSL AND AREAS OF VIS BELOW 2 SM ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02Z FRI...SPREADING 10-15 MILES INLAND OVERNIGHT. VIS MAY LOWER TO 1/2 SM OR LESS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN AND COASTAL MESAS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD IMPACT KONT AFTER 10Z FRI...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... 830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. && .SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...HARRISON AVIATION/MARINE...PG
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
327 AM PDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES AND THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...COOLING WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. WARMER AND DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2000 FEET WITH AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR MONDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH COOLING SPREADING INLAND. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...COOLING WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY. THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLEARING OF THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE WEST COAST AND WEAK OFFSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION... 190930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1000-1300 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 1600 FT MSL EXTENDING 15-25 MI INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 SM IN THE VALLEYS WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN. STRATUS CLEARING TO THE COAST 16-19Z. STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 800-1200 FT MSL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INLAND AROUND 20/02Z...SPREADING 15-20 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 20000 FEET MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... 235 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WNW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-12 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS TUE-WED AS WELL. && .BEACHES... 240 AM...A 6 FT/14 SEC PERIOD SWELL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...PEAKING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF 3 TO 5 FT WITH LOCAL SETS TO 7 FT AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY. THE SWELL AND SURF WILL BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A LARGER WNW SWELL WILL BRING HIGHER SURF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
934 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .UPDATE... A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS BASED UPON OBS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW && .DISCUSSION... WITH OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TEMPERATURES RUNNING RUNNING 10 TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES BEHIND 24 HOURS AGO. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS RUNNING A TINY BIT BEHIND FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED THE VERY SHORT TERM GRIDS BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS. ALSO REDUCED POPS INLAND AND OFFSHORE TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS. DID NOT DROP POPS ALTOGETHER AS HRRR/TX TECH WRF STILL PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR COAST AND OFFSHORE IN THE SHORT TERM WHICH HAS KIND OF VERIFIED. RADAR ALSO HAD A FEW POSSIBLE SPRINKLES IN BRAZORIA COUNTY. MORNING AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AND PIREPS SHOWING LOW CLOUD TOPS BETWEEN FL048-FL063 SO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDINESS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PART OF THE HGX COUNTY WARNING AREA SO EXPECT SOME CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND THIS IS HANDLED IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE BREEZY ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST AND OFFSHORE. 04 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ AVIATION... OVERCAST DECKS WILL PERSIST AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN A NEAR SURFACE POST-FRONTAL INVERSION. A GRADUAL BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS PEEKS OF SUN WILL AID IN FURTHER SCATTERING OUT CEILINGS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY CLEAR EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING CONDITIONS. MODERATE INLAND NORTHERLIES IN THE 10-15G20 KT RANGE. COASTAL OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...20 KT NORTHERLIES WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KTS. 31 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ DISCUSSION... AS OF 4 AM...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST WITH NORTH WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LARGE STORM COMPLEX GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MATAGORDA BAY IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR WATERS...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL FOUND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. DRIER AIR (DEW POINTS IN THE 40S) AND COOLING TEMPERATURES (IN THE 50S) ARE FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AND THIS COOLING AND DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE WIND ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 4 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AND MORE LATE WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN CONTROL. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN (AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TOO) THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 42 MARINE... THE COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST EXITING THE COASTLINE...STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL OCCUR IN ITS WAKE TODAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND BE EAST OF OUR WATERS BY SUNRISE. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ROUGH BAY CONDITIONS WITH AVERAGE NEARSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS ACHIEVING 4 TO 5 FEET...AVERAGE 7 TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE HEIGHTS. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO HAVE WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING AT ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL WEAKEN VEERING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST MONDAY THAT WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS COMING BACK ONSHORE BY THAT AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION/ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOWERING PLAINS PRESSURES KEEPS THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT/SHOWERS/STORMS ARE TIMED TO PASS ACROSS THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN ITS WAKE. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 41 63 39 67 / 10 0 0 0 0 HOUSTON (IAH) 65 45 66 40 67 / 10 0 0 0 0 GALVESTON (GLS) 66 52 65 50 65 / 30 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON... MATAGORDA. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BOISE ID
1123 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .DISCUSSION...LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND SE OREGON WERE AROUND 8F WARMER THIS MORNING WHILE THE WARMING WAS ONLY 2-5F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE MAGIC/UPPER TREASURE VALLEYS. NO CHANGES NEEDED. 15Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING SHOWS FREE AIR TEMPS IN THE 30S ALL THE WAY UP TO 10000 FT MSL SO WARMING TODAY INTO 50S AND LOWER 60S IS ON TRACK. EVEN MILDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL AROUND 10F BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR 20MAR. && .AVIATION...VFR...WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BEGINNING TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...DECREASING AFTER SUN/03Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS AFTER SAT/18Z...AND 20-30 KTS IN SE OREGON BY SUN/12Z. SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AS EARLY AS SUN/18Z...REACHING SOUTHWEST IDAHO BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS THROUGH THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 8-12 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY/S HIGHS. CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING TOWARD THE OR/ID BORDER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY WHILE A WARMER AIRMASS AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL WARM TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO. WINDS ARE GUSTY BOTH DAYS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8000 FT MSL...BUT WILL STEADILY DECREASE TO ABOUT 3500 FEET MSL BY TUESDAY. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE DISCUSSION...VM AVIATION.....AB PREV SHORT TERM...DG PREV LONG TERM....JS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
1008 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .DISCUSSION...LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND SE OREGON WERE AROUND 8F WARMER THIS MORNING WHILE THE WARMING WAS ONLY 2-5F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE MAGIC/UPPER TREASURE VALLEYS. NO CHANGES NEEDED. 15Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING SHOWS FREE AIR TEMPS IN THE 30S ALL THE WAY UP TO 10000 FT MSL SO WARMING TODAY INTO 50S AND LOWER 60S IS ON TRACK. EVEN MILDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL AROUND 10F BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR 20MAR. && .AVIATION...VFR...WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BEGINNING TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ENDING BEFORE SUN/18Z...AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN OWYHEE COUNTY AND NORTHERN HARNEY COUNTY BETWEEN SUN/00Z-09Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS AFTER SAT/18Z...AND 20-30 KTS IN SE OREGON BY SUN/12Z. SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AS EARLY AS SUN/18Z...REACHING SOUTHWEST IDAHO BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS THROUGH THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 8-12 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY/S HIGHS. CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING TOWARD THE OR/ID BORDER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY WHILE A WARMER AIRMASS AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL WARM TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO. WINDS ARE GUSTY BOTH DAYS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8000 FT MSL...BUT WILL STEADILY DECREASE TO ABOUT 3500 FEET MSL BY TUESDAY. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE DISCUSSION...VM AVIATION.....AB PREV SHORT TERM...DG PREV LONG TERM....JS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .DISCUSSION... COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER A BREEZY DAY TODAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS WILL BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING TOWARD SUNRISE...MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING SINCE WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THEREFORE...AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY. WE WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES SINCE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE PROMPTED MANY TO PLANT EARLY THIS YEAR. THE FROST THAT DEVELOPS WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LAST UNTIL ABOUT 9/10 AM SUNDAY. DRY/COOL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COOL START TO THE MORNING AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S MONDAY AND IN THE 70S TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY GO UP ON THE DRYLINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE EAST SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. IF THE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS PROGGED...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. STORM CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SLOWLY RETURNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP NEXT WEEKEND QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY. 79 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ /18 UTC TAF CYCLE/ CONCERNS...PATCHY FROST TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND DIURNAL MIXING COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUES. TOWARDS SUNSET...THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECAY AND BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING. PATCHY FROST THAT BUILDS UP ON AIRCRAFT SURFACES MAY WARRANT LIGHT DEICING OPERATIONS DURING THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO AROUND 13 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXTENDED...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY ENABLE FOR A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW FOR DFW/DAL OPERATIONS AT THAT TIME. BAIN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 37 57 37 67 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 36 59 34 67 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 33 54 34 63 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 33 56 31 66 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 34 55 31 64 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 38 58 38 66 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 35 56 32 63 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 37 58 37 65 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 38 60 34 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 33 58 32 70 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156-157-159-161. && $$ 15/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .AVIATION... /18 UTC TAF CYCLE/ CONCERNS...PATCHY FROST TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND DIURNAL MIXING COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUES. TOWARDS SUNSET...THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECAY AND BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING. PATCHY FROST THAT BUILDS UP ON AIRCRAFT SURFACES MAY WARRANT LIGHT DEICING OPERATIONS DURING THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO AROUND 13 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXTENDED...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY ENABLE FOR A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW FOR DFW/DAL OPERATIONS AT THAT TIME. BAIN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ SUNNY...BREEZY AND COOL SUMS UP THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH... ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST. WE WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WE WILL BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT INCOMING DATA REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT FOR A POSSIBLE PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTING EITHER FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST. NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUE REGARDING TEMPS/FROST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 60 36 59 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 61 36 61 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 59 34 56 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 59 32 58 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 58 33 57 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 60 37 60 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 59 36 58 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 60 38 60 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 60 37 62 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 59 32 60 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 15/79