Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/11/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
100 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATES MADE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS UPWARD PRIMARILY WEST OF THE HUDSON AND ACROSS INTERIOR CT AS WELL AS PARTS OF LONG ISLAND WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WOULD HAVE LEAST AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS. BASED ON LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS AND MIXING UP TO 900MB...SOME AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON COULD TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW REGARDING HIGH TEMP RECORDS. REMAINING SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NE THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. SFC HIGH PRES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST WILL KEEP A SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT HAVE FOREGONE ADDING TO THE GRIDS AS INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE THIS. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY THU...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR BOTH DAYS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SLOW FORWARD PROGRESSION TO THE S AS IT WILL BE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CT DURING THE AFTN DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRES NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL CWA FRIDAY MORNING...AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. LOW PRES/UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BROAD LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...TEMPS WILL TURN MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST AND EXTENDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SOME GUSTS TO 15-18 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AT KEWR AND KSWF. VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD DEVELOP 1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. .FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS EARLY... OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT. .SATURDAY...VFR. .SUNDAY-MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. && .MARINE... SW WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LIMITED MIXING DUE TO WARMER AIR OVER COLDER WATERS. SUB-ADVY CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION. BROAD LOW PRES IMPACTS THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER NE NJ. LOOKS LIKE CONDS WILL FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR THIS ELEVATED POTENTIAL. && .HYDROLOGY... BETWEEN 1/10 AND 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU/THU NIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CLIMATE... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS CURRENTLY REVIEWING THE VALIDITY OF THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 69 ON MARCH 9 2000 AT CENTRAL PARK. WEDNESDAY MARCH 9 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS BRIDGEPORT 60 2002 57 ISLIP64 2000 65 LAGUARDIA 75 2000 71 KENNEDY 67 1973 65 CENTRAL PARK 69 2000 74 NEWARK 74 2000 76 THURSDAY MARCH 10 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS BRIDGEPORT 70 2006 63 ISLIP62 2006 66 LAGUARDIA 74 2006 71 KENNEDY 71 2006 66 CENTRAL PARK 74 2006 74 NEWARK 76 2006 74 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV/DW NEAR TERM...JC/24 SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...FEB MARINE...NV/DW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...NV/DW CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1205 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATES MADE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS UPWARD PRIMARILY WEST OF THE HUDSON AND ACROSS INTERIOR CT AS WELL AS PARTS OF LONG ISLAND WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WOULD HAVE LEAST AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS. BASED ON LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS AND MIXING UP TO 900MB...SOME AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON COULD TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW REGARDING HIGH TEMP RECORDS. REMAINING SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NE THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. SFC HIGH PRES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST WILL KEEP A SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT HAVE FOREGONE ADDING TO THE GRIDS AS INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE THIS. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY THU...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR BOTH DAYS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SLOW FORWARD PROGRESSION TO THE S AS IT WILL BE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CT DURING THE AFTN DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRES NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL CWA FRIDAY MORNING...AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. LOW PRES/UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BROAD LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...TEMPS WILL TURN MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SE AND EXTENDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS 15-18 KT FCST AT KEWR/KSWF...AND COULD OCCUR AT KLGA/KTEB AS WELL. VFR MOST OF TONIGHT WITH SW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SOME SITES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST COULD SEE MVFR VSBY LATE. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: G15-18KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HAZE ALOFT OBSERVED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: G15-18KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY... .THU...CHANCE MVFR VSBY EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. .FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS EARLY... OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS G20KT. .SAT...VFR. .SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. && .MARINE... SW WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LIMITED MIXING DUE TO WARMER AIR OVER COLDER WATERS. SUB-ADVY CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION. BROAD LOW PRES IMPACTS THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER NE NJ. LOOKS LIKE CONDS WILL FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR THIS ELEVATED POTENTIAL. && .HYDROLOGY... BETWEEN 1/10 AND 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU/THU NIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CLIMATE... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS CURRENTLY REVIEWING THE VALIDITY OF THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 69 ON MARCH 9 2000 AT CENTRAL PARK. WEDNESDAY MARCH 9 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS BRIDGEPORT 60 2002 57 ISLIP64 2000 65 LAGUARDIA 75 2000 71 KENNEDY 67 1973 65 CENTRAL PARK 69 2000 74 NEWARK 74 2000 76 THURSDAY MARCH 10 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS BRIDGEPORT 70 2006 63 ISLIP62 2006 66 LAGUARDIA 74 2006 71 KENNEDY 71 2006 66 CENTRAL PARK 74 2006 74 NEWARK 76 2006 74 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV/DW NEAR TERM...JC/24 SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...FEB/GOODMAN MARINE...NV/DW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...NV/DW CLIMATE...