Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/06/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
532 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 .SHORT TERM... 244 PM CST THROUGH SUNDAY... THE EMPHASIS ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WAS PUT ON SKY COVER AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC-INFLUENCED BY EVENING. HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIKELY OPEN UP SCATTERED HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. TRYING TO INDICATE THEIR LOCATION AND TIMING IS NEARLY FUTILE AT THIS POINT. REGIONAL AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FT OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND EVEN MORE SHALLOW TOWARD MILWAUKEE. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO REFLECTS THINNING. SO THOSE TRENDS LEND SUPPORT TO BREAKS DEVELOPING. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL CONDENSATE/CLOUD COVER FIELDS INDICATE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERING IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. THIS MAKES SENSE AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THAT TREND THAN THEIR SOLUTIONS...MORE TOWARD RAP/NAM 500 METER RH FIELDS WHICH INDICATE SOME POCKETS OF BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH DAYBREAK. OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE HEAVILY ON CLOUDS WITH THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR EARLY DROPPING TO NEAR 20 AND THOSE THAT STAY CLOUD COVERED HANGING IN THE LOWER 30S. THOSE PLACES THAT DO CLEAR COULD ALSO SEE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG AS T/TD SPREADS ARE LESS THAN 7 DEGREES AT MOST SITES RIGHT NOW. CONCEPTUALLY SOME OF THIS COULD BE DENSE GIVEN THE RIDGE MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SCOOT OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN. WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY NEAR 30 MPH DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE PREVAILS. DO EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BE THICKENING BY AFTERNOON THOUGH. WARM ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT THE 50 DEGREE MARK CLOSED IN ON OR REACHED IN THE CWA...AND HOW FAR ABOVE 50 FOR WESTERN AREAS LIKELY WILL DEPEND ONCE AGAIN ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN. MTF && .LONG TERM... 244 PM CST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH BUT ACTIVE IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES FAIRLY WELL SUMS UP THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO JUST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND WARMTH FROM THE GULF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIP. TEMPERATURES LOCALLY ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THE 60 MARK ON MONDAY AND RISE INTO THE MID 60S BY TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE PUSH DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT WARMTH TO REACH ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE LAKE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK. AS WE NEAR MIDWEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED WITH STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY AND INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME MODEST CAPE THIS FAR NORTH SO WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM MENTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS STAYS SHUNTED OFF TO OUR NORTH...LAKE MODIFIED AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKEFRONT FROM MIDWEEK ON WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 40S AS COMPARED TO 50S FARTHER INLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. BMD && .AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z TAFS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE HIGH-END MVFR/LOW-END VFR CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD IS VERY SLOWLY DETERIORATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINKING IT WILL NOT FULLY DISSIPATE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ALSO RETURNS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA OCCURRING SO KEPT THE TAFS DRY. JEE && .MARINE... 244 PM CST LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN REST OF TODAY AND AT LEAST PART OF TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...A MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS INCREASING BACK TO AROUND 30 KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE A WINDOW OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GALES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING THEN WINDS SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW GALES. WINDS REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE AND OCCASIONALLY 30 KT RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LAKE STAYS UNDER THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE LAKE AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DEVELOPING FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND TURNING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
540 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 .AVIATION... THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CEILINGS AND SOME LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND BRINGS SHALLOW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT SUCH THAT A LLWS MENTION WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THE TAF. LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06 UTC AND SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. WE HAVE KEPT CEILINGS IN MVFR RANGE BUT POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016/ SHORT TERM... RETURN FLOW WAS WELL UNDERWAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT THAT HAS SINCE WASHED OUT NEAR I-20. DEWPOINTS OF 50 WERE NOTED AS FAR NORTH AS MIDLAND AT 2 PM...HOWEVER THE NAM IS STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MOISTURE AND AS SUCH WE ARE NOT BUYING ITS THREAT FOR FOG TONIGHT. RATHER...SOUNDINGS ARE FULLY SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN A 35-40 KNOT LLJ. RELATIVELY SHALLOW DEPTH TO THIS STRATUS AND BASES AOA 1000 FEET SHOULD KEEP DRIZZLE AT BAY AND ANY PROSPECTS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ARE NEXT TO NIL AS A BONE-DRY ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTENSIFIES AROUND 5000 FEET WITHIN STRONGER SW FLOW. THE STOUT EML WILL AID IN A QUICK EROSION OF STRATUS FROM W-E BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A DRYLINE THAT NOW LOOKS TO STALL JUST BEYOND THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. RATHER POOR DRYLINE CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE CINH BY PEAK MIXING SHOW NO SIGN OF YIELDING EVEN UNDER A BRANCH OF STRONGER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...SO DRYLINE STORMS APPEAR VERY UNLIKELY. OCCASIONALLY THICK CIRROSTRATUS MAY KEEP A LID ON HIGH TEMPS MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT SW WINDS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD EASILY BE ATTAINED FROM THE MOST MINIMAL OF MIXING IN THIS SETUP. STRONGEST WINDS AOA 20 MPH AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX ARE MOST FAVORED IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES CLOSER TO A STRIP OF ENHANCED 850- 700 MB WINDS FROM ABOUT TUCUMCARI TO DUMAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR A SOLID RED FLAG WARNING SETUP AND WITH COMPLEXITIES OF HIGH CLOUDS WE FEEL THE CONS OUTWEIGH THE PROS FOR 3+ HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WX. LONG TERM... LOOKING INTO MONDAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH POSED TO EJECT ACROSS SERN COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS A BIT DISAPPOINTING IN TERMS OF STRENGTH WITH PEAK H5 WINDS RUNNING ONLY AROUND 60 KTS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. IT IS SUSPECTED THAT MODELS ARE FINALLY GETTING A BIT BETTER HANDLE ON THE NEXT SYSTEM IN LINE COMING ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST THANKS TO ACARS DATA OVER THE PACIFIC IN THE MORE DENSELY TRAVELED ROUTES. AS SUCH THE WESTERN SYSTEMS INTERACTION MAY BE STEALING JUST ENOUGH OF THE LEAD SYSTEMS STEAM TO TURN IT INTO A BIT OF A DUD FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE. 120+KT JET MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF PACIFIC COAST SYSTEM HELPS DRIVE THE LOW DEEP INTO MEXICO MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS ZACATECAS BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MATURING AND CURVING BACK INTO TEXAS BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOWER LATITUDE SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH THE CUTOFF LOW NEXT WEEKEND. AS HINTED ABOVE...MODELS OFTEN SHOW A BIT OF A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THE DAY BEFORE AN EVENT BUT THIS DEPICTION TWO DAYS AHEAD AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM MAKES MONDAY TO APPEAR LESS CRITICAL. WILL THERE BE A CHANCE OF RED FLAG MINUTES...PERHAPS...BUT THE THREE HOUR CRITERIA MAY VERY WELL BE HARD TO MAKE. INDICATIONS FOR CONVECTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AND PUSHED FURTHER EAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS AND INTERACTS WITH THE SLOWLY SAGGING CANADIAN FRONT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THERE ARE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEXICAN LOW WHEN IT CLEARS US CUSTOMS...SOME HANG ON TO THE PRECIP LONGER THAN OTHERS AND THUS THE BLENDS KEEP LOW END POPS IN THE LATTER EXTENDED. MORE THAN LIKELY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
254 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016 .SHORT TERM... 244 PM CST THROUGH SUNDAY... THE EMPHASIS ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WAS PUT ON SKY COVER AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC-INFLUENCED BY EVENING. HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIKELY OPEN UP SCATTERED HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. TRYING TO INDICATE THEIR LOCATION AND TIMING IS NEARLY FUTILE AT THIS POINT. REGIONAL AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FT OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND EVEN MORE SHALLOW TOWARD MILWAUKEE. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO REFLECTS THINNING. SO THOSE TRENDS LEND SUPPORT TO BREAKS DEVELOPING. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL CONDENSATE/CLOUD COVER FIELDS INDICATE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERING IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. THIS MAKES SENSE AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THAT TREND THAN THEIR SOLUTIONS...MORE TOWARD RAP/NAM 500 METER RH FIELDS WHICH INDICATE SOME POCKETS OF BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH DAYBREAK. OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE HEAVILY ON CLOUDS WITH THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR EARLY DROPPING TO NEAR 20 AND THOSE THAT STAY CLOUD COVERED HANGING IN THE LOWER 30S. THOSE PLACES THAT DO CLEAR COULD ALSO SEE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG AS T/TD SPREADS ARE LESS THAN 7 DEGREES AT MOST SITES RIGHT NOW. CONCEPTUALLY SOME OF THIS COULD BE DENSE GIVEN THE RIDGE MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SCOOT OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN. WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY NEAR 30 MPH DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE PREVAILS. DO EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BE THICKENING BY AFTERNOON THOUGH. WARM ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT THE 50 DEGREE MARK CLOSED IN ON OR REACHED IN THE CWA...AND HOW FAR ABOVE 50 FOR WESTERN AREAS LIKELY WILL DEPEND ONCE AGAIN ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN. MTF && .LONG TERM... 244 PM CST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH BUT ACTIVE IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES FAIRLY WELL SUMS UP THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO JUST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND WARMTH FROM THE GULF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIP. TEMPERATURES LOCALLY ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THE 60 MARK ON MONDAY AND RISE INTO THE MID 60S BY TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE PUSH DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT WARMTH TO REACH ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE LAKE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK. AS WE NEAR MIDWEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED WITH STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY AND INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME MODEST CAPE THIS FAR NORTH SO WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM MENTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS STAYS SHUNTED OFF TO OUR NORTH...LAKE MODIFIED AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKEFRONT FROM MIDWEEK ON WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 40S AS COMPARED TO 50S FARTHER INLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. BMD && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH WINDS QUICKLY DECREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING VARIABLE. THE HIGH-END MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ALSO RETURNS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KT THIS EVENING...AND WINDS AT 1700 FT INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KT. DID NOT INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS BECAUSE THE 20 KT GUSTS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPRESS THE IMPACT OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA OCCURRING SO KEPT THE TAFS DRY. JEE && .MARINE... 209 AM CST HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODEST LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND...WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KNOTS AS THE LAKE REMAINS DRAPED IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE DEPARTING HIGH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST TO QUEBEC THURSDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO HAVE A NORTH ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL RACE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. KMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING...NORTH HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...NOON TO 9 PM SUNDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1042 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 .SHORT TERM... 244 PM CST THROUGH SUNDAY... THE EMPHASIS ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WAS PUT ON SKY COVER AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC-INFLUENCED BY EVENING. HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIKELY OPEN UP SCATTERED HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. TRYING TO INDICATE THEIR LOCATION AND TIMING IS NEARLY FUTILE AT THIS POINT. REGIONAL AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FT OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND EVEN MORE SHALLOW TOWARD MILWAUKEE. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO REFLECTS THINNING. SO THOSE TRENDS LEND SUPPORT TO BREAKS DEVELOPING. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL CONDENSATE/CLOUD COVER FIELDS INDICATE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERING IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. THIS MAKES SENSE AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THAT TREND THAN THEIR SOLUTIONS...MORE TOWARD RAP/NAM 500 METER RH FIELDS WHICH INDICATE SOME POCKETS OF BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH DAYBREAK. OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE HEAVILY ON CLOUDS WITH THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR EARLY DROPPING TO NEAR 20 AND THOSE THAT STAY CLOUD COVERED HANGING IN THE LOWER 30S. THOSE PLACES THAT DO CLEAR COULD ALSO SEE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG AS T/TD SPREADS ARE LESS THAN 7 DEGREES AT MOST SITES RIGHT NOW. CONCEPTUALLY SOME OF THIS COULD BE DENSE GIVEN THE RIDGE MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SCOOT OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN. WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY NEAR 30 MPH DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE PREVAILS. DO EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BE THICKENING BY AFTERNOON THOUGH. WARM ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT THE 50 DEGREE MARK CLOSED IN ON OR REACHED IN THE CWA...AND HOW FAR ABOVE 50 FOR WESTERN AREAS LIKELY WILL DEPEND ONCE AGAIN ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN. MTF && .LONG TERM... 244 PM CST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH BUT ACTIVE IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES FAIRLY WELL SUMS UP THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO JUST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND WARMTH FROM THE GULF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIP. TEMPERATURES LOCALLY ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THE 60 MARK ON MONDAY AND RISE INTO THE MID 60S BY TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE PUSH DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT WARMTH TO REACH ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE LAKE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK. AS WE NEAR MIDWEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED WITH STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY AND INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME MODEST CAPE THIS FAR NORTH SO WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM MENTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS STAYS SHUNTED OFF TO OUR NORTH...LAKE MODIFIED AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKEFRONT FROM MIDWEEK ON WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 40S AS COMPARED TO 50S FARTHER INLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. BMD && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH WINDS QUICKLY DECREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING VARIABLE. THE HIGH-END MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ALSO RETURNS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KT THIS EVENING...AND WINDS AT 1700 FT INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KT. DID NOT INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS BECAUSE THE 20 KT GUSTS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPRESS THE IMPACT OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA OCCURRING SO KEPT THE TAFS DRY. JEE && .MARINE... 244 PM CST LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN REST OF TODAY AND AT LEAST PART OF TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...A MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS INCREASING BACK TO AROUND 30 KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE A WINDOW OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GALES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING THEN WINDS SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW GALES. WINDS REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE AND OCCASIONALLY 30 KT RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LAKE STAYS UNDER THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE LAKE AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DEVELOPING FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND TURNING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 .AVIATION... LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH POCKETS/PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE. A 30 TO 40 KT LOW- LEVEL JET AROUND 1000 TO 5000 FT AGL WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN BY DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY LATER AT KCDS. ISOLATED HIGH- BASED VIRGA SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016/ AVIATION... THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CEILINGS AND SOME LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND BRINGS SHALLOW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT SUCH THAT A LLWS MENTION WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THE TAF. LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06 UTC AND SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. WE HAVE KEPT CEILINGS IN MVFR RANGE BUT POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016/ SHORT TERM... RETURN FLOW WAS WELL UNDERWAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT THAT HAS SINCE WASHED OUT NEAR I-20. DEWPOINTS OF 50 WERE NOTED AS FAR NORTH AS MIDLAND AT 2 PM...HOWEVER THE NAM IS STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MOISTURE AND AS SUCH WE ARE NOT BUYING ITS THREAT FOR FOG TONIGHT. RATHER...SOUNDINGS ARE FULLY SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN A 35-40 KNOT LLJ. RELATIVELY SHALLOW DEPTH TO THIS STRATUS AND BASES AOA 1000 FEET SHOULD KEEP DRIZZLE AT BAY AND ANY PROSPECTS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ARE NEXT TO NIL AS A BONE-DRY ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTENSIFIES AROUND 5000 FEET WITHIN STRONGER SW FLOW. THE STOUT EML WILL AID IN A QUICK EROSION OF STRATUS FROM W-E BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A DRYLINE THAT NOW LOOKS TO STALL JUST BEYOND THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. RATHER POOR DRYLINE CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE CINH BY PEAK MIXING SHOW NO SIGN OF YIELDING EVEN UNDER A BRANCH OF STRONGER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...SO DRYLINE STORMS APPEAR VERY UNLIKELY. OCCASIONALLY THICK CIRROSTRATUS MAY KEEP A LID ON HIGH TEMPS MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT SW WINDS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD EASILY BE ATTAINED FROM THE MOST MINIMAL OF MIXING IN THIS SETUP. STRONGEST WINDS AOA 20 MPH AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX ARE MOST FAVORED IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES CLOSER TO A STRIP OF ENHANCED 850- 700 MB WINDS FROM ABOUT TUCUMCARI TO DUMAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR A SOLID RED FLAG WARNING SETUP AND WITH COMPLEXITIES OF HIGH CLOUDS WE FEEL THE CONS OUTWEIGH THE PROS FOR 3+ HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WX. LONG TERM... LOOKING INTO MONDAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH POSED TO EJECT ACROSS SERN COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS A BIT DISAPPOINTING IN TERMS OF STRENGTH WITH PEAK H5 WINDS RUNNING ONLY AROUND 60 KTS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. IT IS SUSPECTED THAT MODELS ARE FINALLY GETTING A BIT BETTER HANDLE ON THE NEXT SYSTEM IN LINE COMING ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST THANKS TO ACARS DATA OVER THE PACIFIC IN THE MORE DENSELY TRAVELED ROUTES. AS SUCH THE WESTERN SYSTEMS INTERACTION MAY BE STEALING JUST ENOUGH OF THE LEAD SYSTEMS STEAM TO TURN IT INTO A BIT OF A DUD FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE. 120+KT JET MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF PACIFIC COAST SYSTEM HELPS DRIVE THE LOW DEEP INTO MEXICO MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS ZACATECAS BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MATURING AND CURVING BACK INTO TEXAS BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOWER LATITUDE SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH THE CUTOFF LOW NEXT WEEKEND. AS HINTED ABOVE...MODELS OFTEN SHOW A BIT OF A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THE DAY BEFORE AN EVENT BUT THIS DEPICTION TWO DAYS AHEAD AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM MAKES MONDAY TO APPEAR LESS CRITICAL. WILL THERE BE A CHANCE OF RED FLAG MINUTES...PERHAPS...BUT THE THREE HOUR CRITERIA MAY VERY WELL BE HARD TO MAKE. INDICATIONS FOR CONVECTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AND PUSHED FURTHER EAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS AND INTERACTS WITH THE SLOWLY SAGGING CANADIAN FRONT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THERE ARE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEXICAN LOW WHEN IT CLEARS US CUSTOMS...SOME HANG ON TO THE PRECIP LONGER THAN OTHERS AND THUS THE BLENDS KEEP LOW END POPS IN THE LATTER EXTENDED. MORE THAN LIKELY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 33