Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 01/17/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 301 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...BUT BECOME STRONGER AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 301 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 THIS INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL FEATURE MAINLY RAIN. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW A MELTING LAYER DOWN LOW THAT WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS LEFT. FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER. ONE ITEM TO NOT...THE DGZ IS SHOWN TO BE UNSATURATED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS COULD SUPPORT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IF IT HAPPENS WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THIS RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS RELATIVELY LOW SO I KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT ON SATURDAY. OVERALL THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LOW...BUT LOCALIZED IMPACTS COULD OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY BELOW FREEZING. A BIGGER POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES IN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH 500 MB. ARCTIC AIR DOWN LOW WILL SETUP FAVORABLE INSTABILITY BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. THE DGZ BECOMES VERY LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY ACT TO CUT DOWN SOME OF THE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT IT WILL NOT DIMINISH THE IMPACTS. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL ARRIVE AS WELL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 (MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ARCTIC AIR WILL STILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THEN WE SHOULD SEE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. NO BIG STORMS...BUT WE/LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A POSSIBLE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS CONTINUES AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THIS REGIME...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR THAT DEEP. SO EXPECT AROUND AN INCH MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY WEST OF U.S. 131. ONCE THE NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER EAST THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD EXIT SW MI AND WE SHOULD SEE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT IT TOO SLOWLY WEAKENS THE SURFACE LOW. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLOWER... WITH SNOW NOT MOVING IN UNTIL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY THIS SEEMS TO BE ONE TO WATCH...BE IT MAY BE FAIRLY WEAK...AND MAY MAINLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96. && && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 AN AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING CONDITIONS DOWNWARD WITH IFR DEVELOPING BY 20-21Z. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO THE EVENING AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00-02Z. THIS SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY ONE LOCATION WITH ALL PCPN ENDING BETWEEN 02-05Z. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD STILL LINGER BEHIND THIS SNOW. HOWEVER WE EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK TO MVFR AS MIXING INCREASES AND CEILINGS RISE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE REST OF SATURDAY MORNING ALSO. AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING WINDS WILL PIVOT TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY AT 20-25 KNOTS. THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND INTO MID SATURDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 301 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART IT APPEARS THAT THE GALE RISK IS LIMITED...BUT ITS A CLOSE CALL. WE MAINTAINED THE FREEZING SPRAY WORDING IN THE FORECASTS. WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING IN AND BUILDING WAVES...THE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL IS ELEVATED. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 301 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 ICE JAMMED UP ON THE LOWER GRAND RIVER WILL LIKELY KEEP LEVELS ELEVATED AROUND ROBINSON TOWNSHIP...AS THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES. ADDITIONAL ICE WILL DEVELOP ON ALL RIVERS NEXT WEEK AS THE WATER TEMPERATURES BECOME SUPERCOOLED. WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE AS THE ICE BUILDS. SO WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...JK HYDROLOGY...MJS MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
907 PM PST SAT JAN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER WEATHER...AFTER SOME POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. COOLER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE AGAIN...AND WINDS INCREASE ONSHORE. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WILL BE AIMED AT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MUCH WARMER BY MIDWEEK UNDER A STRONGER RIDGE...THEN COOLER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.... PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT... PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE DRIFTING RAPIDLY ACROSS SOCAL FROM THE NW...WHILE AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS WERE TRYING TO FORM BELOW.....THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A VERY WEAK INVERSION BASED NEAR 2800 FT...WITH A PW OF 0.75 INCH. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK TO THE DESERTS AND WINDS WERE LIGHT MOST AREAS AT 9 PM PST. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR FOG. AT 8 PM PST...SFC DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S INLAND 30 MILES OR MORE....WINDS HAVE DIED...AND LOWER CLOUDS WERE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FORMING BENEATH A HIGH CLOUD DECK. MDCRS SOUNDINGS SHOW A SOLID DECREASING TREND IN THE WEAK INVERSION LEVEL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WERE EXTENSIVE AT 8 PM PST...BUT THE BACK EDGE IS PROGRESSING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE COAST...SO LOOK FOR CLEARING LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE ACCELERATING OFFSHORE AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. THIS SHOULD LOWER THE MOIST LAYER AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPMENT...FOG HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO FORM...AND MAY BECOME DENSE IN SOME AREAS BEFORE MORNING. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY. AS ANY FOG THAT FORMS BURNS OFF... TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 60S AND SOME LOWER 70S UNDER FAIR SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BREAK QUICKLY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST OFF THE PACIFIC AND TAKES AIM AT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP. SOCAL WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE ACTION...HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND SOME LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER...BUT STILL NEAR AVERAGE. FAIR AND WARMER AGAIN BY WED...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE MONTH ON TAP FOR THU AS A 582 DM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND LOWER DESERTS BY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH WEAKENING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY NEXT FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEXT WEEKEND HERE ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ONCE AGAIN...ALL GUIDANCE STEERS THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTH. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MEAN LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WEST WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS INTO SOCAL. THE LATEST 16 DAY GFS RUNS FROM 18Z AND 00Z SUGGEST THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY TO UNDER CUT THE RIDGE WILL BE DURING THE FINAL DAYS OF THE MONTH. && .AVIATION... 170445Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK OVER THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH 12Z. EXPECT BASSES TO INITIALLY BE AROUND 1500 FT MSL...WITH A SLOW DECLINE TO 500-1000 FT MSL BY 14Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL OCCUR WITH VIS REDUCTIONS TO 1/4 SM OR LESS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL MESAS. KCRQ WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY REDUCED VIS OF 3 SM OR LESS...WITH A LOWER POSSIBILITY OF VIS RESTRICTIONS AT KSAN AND KSNA. KONT WILL SEE VIS RESTRICTIONS OF 3 TO 5 SM EARLY...BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY 14Z. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 18Z. CONFIDENCE IN CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS IS MODERATE. LIGHT WINDS AND FEW-BKN AOA 20000 FT MSL WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN TO THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z MONDAY. MTNS/DESERTS...FEW-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... 845 PM...A LARGE LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE SOCAL BIGHT SUNDAY. AS A CONSEQUENCE...9 TO 13 FEET SEAS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO LA JOLLA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 10 FT BY TUESDAY EVENING. && .BEACHES... 845 PM...ANOTHER WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING A PERIOD OF VERY HIGH SURF SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SURF WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH OF CARLSBAD WHERE SURF OF 8-12 FT AND SETS TO 15 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SURF OF 7-10 FT WITH SETS TO 12 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH. THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST IS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY...WITH ORANGE COUNTY CURRENTLY UNDER A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. BOTH ARE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THESE PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM PST TUESDAY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. && $$ PUBLIC...JAD AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
301 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 .DISCUSSION... COLD MORNING IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE GONE CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS AND SURFACE MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. IN OTHERS...WHERE T/TD SPREADS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER...THICK FROST HAS DEVELOPED. THE FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND SHALLOW AT BEST AND DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR THAT IT WILL DEPOSIT ICE ON ANY AREA ROADS. AFTER A COLD START... TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMUP WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME AND WILL ALLOW A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY COLD ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS WITH READINGS IN THE -10 TO -20F RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE TO ALLOW SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH VERY SHALLOW COLD AIR...THE MODELS ARE USUALLY TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THEIR LACK OF LOW LEVEL RESOLUTION. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAP GUIDANCE DOES GIVE A SMALL HINT THAT THE AIR MAY BE COLDER ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE LATEST RUN HAS TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE LOW 20S ON SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL UNDERCUT THE MOS HIGHS FOR MONDAY...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-20. WHILE COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO NORTH TEXAS...THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL ENSURE THAT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY MIX SOME OF THE COLDER AIR BEFORE THE SUN SETS. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTH OF I-20. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND TIMING EACH ONE IS PROVING TO BE RATHER DIFFICULT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES IN MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...HOWEVER THE TRACK IS QUITE VARIED WITH ABOUT HALF OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING RAIN/STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND THE OTHER HALF FARTHER EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX. THIS RESULTS IN A LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN MIDWEEK BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN 5 DEGREES OR SO OF SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. DUNN && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1123 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/ VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES NOW WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LIGHT WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE AND TO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING. SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10KT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AROUND TO THE EAST AFTER SUNSET AND NORTHEAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR DEWPOINTS. MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LIGHT FOG OR VSBY REDUCTIONS AT TAF SITES...BUT FROST IS A GOOD BET ON AIRCRAFT SITTING OUT OVERNIGHT. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 54 30 45 41 64 / 0 5 0 0 5 WACO, TX 54 31 51 39 65 / 0 5 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 50 27 44 34 57 / 0 5 0 0 5 DENTON, TX 52 25 43 37 62 / 0 5 0 0 5 MCKINNEY, TX 51 27 44 36 61 / 0 5 0 0 5 DALLAS, TX 53 31 45 41 63 / 0 5 0 0 5 TERRELL, TX 52 30 46 37 61 / 0 5 0 0 5 CORSICANA, TX 53 32 50 39 64 / 0 5 0 0 5 TEMPLE, TX 54 32 54 39 66 / 0 5 0 0 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 56 28 46 36 65 / 0 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1123 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 .AVIATION... VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES NOW WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LIGHT WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE AND TO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING. SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10KT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AROUND TO THE EAST AFTER SUNSET AND NORTHEAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR DEWPOINTS. MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LIGHT FOG OR VSBY REDUCTIONS AT TAF SITES...BUT FROST IS A GOOD BET ON AIRCRAFT SITTING OUT OVERNIGHT. TR.92 && .UPDATE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW EARLIER TODAY RAPIDLY EXITING THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE...SUBSIDENCE HAS OVERSPREAD NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO COME TO END. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED ALL MENTIONS OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. AS SKIES CLEAR...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LACKING FOR ANY PATCHY FOG TO FORM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. STALLEY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/ A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAKENING FRONTOGENETICAL BAND ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW... OR VERY LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF HWY 380. AS INCREASING STORMS OVER THE UPPER TX COAST AND NW GULF CONTINUE TO INTERCEPT MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...WE EXPECT THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH NIGHTFALL AS THE BAND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AN INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL...AS LOW LEVEL CAA AND WET BULBING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BELOW 700MB CONTINUES. HOWEVER...ANY LOW ACCUMULATION TOTALS SHOULD OCCUR ON MAINLY GRASSY AREAS WITH ROADS REMAINING WET AND NO TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED. GROUND AND AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING TIMES OF INTERMITTENT MIXED OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE TRAVEL IMPACTS ON ROADS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR INFILTRATING INTO THE AREA WILL BASICALLY PUT AN END TO ALL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT MOST LOCATIONS BY 00Z...THOUGH LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR E/SE COUNTIES THROUGH 03Z. CLEARING SKIES WITH CONTINUED BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY EVENING...BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO NEW SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SOUTH BREEZES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN LATER ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS RECOVER BACK INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM TAKING ALL THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT...WE EXPECT MAINLY A RETURN TO BRISK AND COLDER CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WNW FLOW ALOFT...WE EXPECT YET ANOTHER RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS WARMING BACK UP TO BETWEEN 55 TO 65 DEGREES. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FOR MID WEEK WILL TRACK FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO WITH JUST A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE ROLLER COASTER OF COLD AND MILD DAYS CONTINUES...SO BE SURE TO CHECK YOUR WEATHER FORECASTS DAILY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE READILY EAST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL...LAPSE RATES ALOFT DO REACH BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM AND WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WERE TO MOVE NORTH...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS EAST OF I-35 ON THURSDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A BRIEF DAY OF COLDER WEATHER. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT WEEKEND/S WEATHER LOOKS MORE MUCH NICER THAN THIS WEEKEND. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 31 54 31 45 38 / 5 0 10 5 0 WACO, TX 32 55 34 50 38 / 5 0 5 5 0 PARIS, TX 29 51 30 43 34 / 10 0 10 5 0 DENTON, TX 28 51 26 44 36 / 5 0 10 5 0 MCKINNEY, TX 29 51 27 43 36 / 5 0 10 5 0 DALLAS, TX 31 54 33 45 39 / 5 0 10 5 0 TERRELL, TX 29 53 31 47 37 / 10 0 10 5 0 CORSICANA, TX 32 53 35 49 38 / 10 0 5 5 0 TEMPLE, TX 32 55 35 52 39 / 5 0 5 5 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 28 56 27 46 36 / 0 0 10 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$